To The Moon

For the last few years, the AI semiconductor story has been remarkably simple. AI spending goes up. Demand for GPUs explodes. Nvidia wins. But Broadcom’s upcoming earnings could test whether the next phase of the AI boom is becoming much more complicated. Broadcom reports fiscal Q3 earnings on September 2, and expectations are enormous. Wall Street is looking for roughly $29.4 billion in revenue and $3.24 in adjusted EPS. But those headline numbers are not what interests me most. Broadcom has already guided for approximately $16 billion in AI semiconductor revenue, representing growth of more than 200% year over year. That raises a much bigger question: Does Nvidia actually need to lose for Broadcom to become one of the biggest winners of the AI infrastructure boom? I don’t think it does.

Something interesting happened across the AI trade this week. AI demand didn’t suddenly disappear. Data-centre spending didn’t collapse. The long-term AI story didn’t magically break overnight. Yet several AI hardware names were punished despite reporting numbers that, on the surface, looked strong. That tells me the market may be entering a different phase of the AI cycle. The question is no longer simply: “Is AI growing?” We already know the answer to that. The more important question might now be: “Which companies can grow fast enough to justify what investors are already paying for that growth?” And that distinction could become extremely important heading into September. 💥 MARVELL SHOWED US THE PROBLEM $MRVL is probably one of the clearest examples. Marvell delivered strong quarterly

If I judged August purely by my portfolio, it would be a pretty strange month to review. My positions were small. Some were short-lived. There were buys, sells, changes of plan and at least one period where I bought $BE and then watched it fluctuate like it had taken my purchase personally. 😂 But the biggest reason my portfolio looked the way it did had very little to do with the market. Real life happened. I needed access to money for personal circumstances, which meant selling investments earlier than I might otherwise have chosen. At first, that felt frustrating. We spend so much time talking about finding great companies, building conviction and holding for the long term. But August taught me something I think is just as important: Your investment strategy has to survive your real life

Part 2 And basically a continuation from my bother NVIDIA post earlier this year on my thoughts. NVIDIA reports fiscal Q2 earnings on Wednesday, August 26. Normally that sentence alone would be enough to get attention. But this time the setup is ridiculous. NVIDIA is sitting around a US$5.2 trillion market cap. The stock closed Friday at US$214.72. Wall Street is expecting roughly US$92 billion in quarterly revenue and around US$2.09 adjusted EPS. That would be another extraordinary quarter for a company that is already the largest public company on the planet. And that is exactly where the problem begins. For NVIDIA now, being excellent may no longer be enough. 📊 THE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY INSANE Last quarter, NVIDIA generated US$81.6 billion in revenue, up 85% year on year. Data Center

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,785.76 after touching a record 7,816.70 during the week. We are basically sitting on the roof of the market. And right now my feed seems split into two camps. 🐂 Camp one: Buy the breakout. Don’t overthink it. New highs lead to new highs. 🐻 Camp two: Take profit immediately. Stocks are expensive. A correction has to be coming. I’m doing neither. I’m already invested, so I’m not running for the exit. But I’m also not throwing fresh money at record highs just because the chart is green. The market still has to earn my next dollar. And for me, that comes down to two dates. 📅 August 19: FOMC Minutes 📅 August 26: NVIDIA Earnings One tests the price investors are willing to pay for growth. The other tests whether the growth itself is still strong enough to deser

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Everyone opens the latest 13F filings looking for the same thing: What did smart money buy? I think that misses the more interesting question. What if smart money itself cannot agree? 🤔 The latest Q2 2026 filings show exactly that. Across more than 6,000 institutional filings reviewed by Reuters, there was surprisingly little agreement about where the next big returns in technology will come from. Nearly 44% of institutions reduced exposure to the Magnificent Seven, while about 42% increased or initiated positions. That is almost a coin flip. For me, that might be more useful than any individual billionaire’s purchase. 🧠 Signal #1: The AI trade is splitting into different camps AI is no longer one trade. A year or two ago, the strategy could almost be simplified to: AI spending rises ➡️ ch