Reynor

Macro & derivatives market observer;member of a macro/derivatives trading research group.Futures education contributor.Weekly: clear, practical insights—follow for more.

    • ReynorReynor
      ·14:58

      Futures Classroom:Gold & Silver Tumbled: What’s the Next Trade?

      Good evening, everyone. I’ve organized the key takeaways from the March 19 session into a written recap that can be read directly, so anyone who missed the livestream can catch up and review the discussion.You can follow along with my class notes to see how Mr. Gan analyzed the market.Mr. Gan focused on the crude oil market, related financial instruments, and trading strategy. He discussed the impact of the Iran nuclear talks and the Strait of Hormuz blockade on oil prices, while also looking at the trading opportunities and broader market trends created by higher oil prices. The main points are as follows:Course Review :Gold & Silver Tumbled: W
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      Futures Classroom:Gold & Silver Tumbled: What’s the Next Trade?
    • ReynorReynor
      ·03-19 14:13

      Where’s the Smart Money Going? CFTC and Flow Show Just Gave Us Clues

      Futures traders, come on over. Today we’re continuing our look at the COT data released by the CFTC.In previous sessions, I also added some off-exchange flow data for context, such as ETF fund-flow data. Today, we’re not just covering the CFTC numbers; we’ll also go through The Flow Show data.Before we begin, let’s clarify two concepts: what exactly are the CFTC data and The Flow Show?In commodity futures research, exchange-traded activity can be understood as trading standardized futures contracts. The exchange sets the rules, including contract size, quality specifications, delivery month, and delivery location, and the clearinghouse handles centralized clearing. ETFs, which most people are familiar with, are also exchange-traded instruments, so they belong to the on-exchange market rath
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      Where’s the Smart Money Going? CFTC and Flow Show Just Gave Us Clues
    • ReynorReynor
      ·03-13

      CFTC Update: Big Money Is Chasing Soybeans, Copper, and Crude

      If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on.​ So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data.​ Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entiti
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      CFTC Update: Big Money Is Chasing Soybeans, Copper, and Crude
    • ReynorReynor
      ·03-03

      Volatility Is Back: A War‑Driven Playbook for Oil, Gold, and FX Futures

      As of today, the joint U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran have entered their third day. International futures markets, as expectations about the direction of the war have shifted, have gone through a clear sequence: sharp volatility, then a period of tight balance with slowing swings, and now a renewed pickup in volatility. A war-driven pullback in global risk appetite, together with a surge in safe-haven demand, is gradually turning into a broader wave of portfolio rebalancing.This round of fighting—where major world powers and a major Middle Eastern state are directly entering the battlefield—seems to have convinced many global analysts that the conflict may be moving beyond a localized event and toward a wider confrontation. Meanwhile, the U.S.–Israel side’s unsparing “decapitation” actions ag
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      Volatility Is Back: A War‑Driven Playbook for Oil, Gold, and FX Futures
    • ReynorReynor
      ·02-06

      VIX Rising, S&P Flat — Is a Crash Brewing?

      Good evening, everyone.$Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2604(MGCmain)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2604(1OZmain)$ I’ve compiled the key points from the February 5 session into a ready-to-read transcript, so those who missed the live broadcast can easily catch up and review. $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $E-mini Silver - main 2603(QImain)$ $Silver - Mar 2026(SI2603)$ $Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2
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      VIX Rising, S&P Flat — Is a Crash Brewing?
    • ReynorReynor
      ·02-04

      Is This the Time to Bottom-Fish in Gold and Silver? Let’s Check the COTs

      Last Friday (January 31), gold and silver $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $迷你白银主连 2603(QImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ suffered a historic crash—leaving countless traders wondering: Is this a golden “buy-the-dip” opportunity, or just the beginning of a deeper sell-off? Especially now that gold has started rebounding over the past couple of days, FOMO is kicking in hard. $黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2604(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2604(1OZmain)$ $富兰克林黄金及贵金属基金A (acc)USD(LU0496367417.USD)$ But i
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      Is This the Time to Bottom-Fish in Gold and Silver? Let’s Check the COTs
    • ReynorReynor
      ·01-30

      Futures Lecture Transcript: Will Gold And Silver Hit A Major Top In February?

      Guest Speaker:Mingzhe Gu : A professional trader with 15 years of experience in equities and international futures. He serves as a guest lecturer for several major global exchanges, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and is also the founder of Win-at-the-Start Investment Academy. He is currently the General Manager of Shanghai Qigu Information Technology.As an active Chinese presence on international futures platforms, in 2021 he once again emerged as a leading competitor in a live trading competition’s overseas-markets division, taking multiple awards with ease: 7th place in the Global Heavyweight Group, 1st prize in CME COMEX Copper Options, 1st prize in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Options, and 2nd prize in NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Options.Yesterday, Master Gu reviewed the major globa
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      Futures Lecture Transcript: Will Gold And Silver Hit A Major Top In February?
    • ReynorReynor
      ·01-29

      Is Copper the Next Silver? CFTC Data Hints at a Base Metals Bull Run

      Hi everyone! Today we’re breaking down the latest CFTC data—the Commitments of Traders report published weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If you trade futures, this is a must-watch indicator. Why? Because it reveals the balance between bulls and bears, tracks where big money is flowing, and offers key insights into market sentiment and price expectations. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ The report splits traders into two main groups: Commercial traders (industry players like miners or manufacturers hedging real exposure) Non-commercial traders (speculators—hedge funds, institutional players betting on price moves) We’ll walk through it together so yo
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      Is Copper the Next Silver? CFTC Data Hints at a Base Metals Bull Run
    • ReynorReynor
      ·01-28

      Don’t Miss the Second Act: Base Metals After Gold’s Run?

      If there’s one clear focus in the futures market recently, it’s undoubtedly silver.But today, let’s take a step back from silver and zoom out for a broader perspective: Does the recent surge in gold and silver signal the start of a bull market in base metals? There’s a well-known commodity cycle that combines the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock with Jeremy Grantham’s concept of the “commodity supercycle launch sequence.” It goes like this: The early warning sign that an economic downturn is ending is a rise in gold and silver prices. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ Why? Because during late-stage slowdowns, real demand is weak and industrial commodities languish—so capital flows into safe-haven assets like precious metals. At the same time, central banks w
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      Don’t Miss the Second Act: Base Metals After Gold’s Run?
     
     
     
     

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