To The Moon

1. Apple is benefiting from “premium insulation” Apple’s rebound in China—+28% iPhone shipments in a shrinking market—reinforces a long-running pattern: High-end devices are far less exposed to component shortages and cost inflation Apple has long-term memory supply contracts, pricing power, and scale, shielding it from the worst of the memory crunch As TSMC’s C.C. Wei noted, the pain is asymmetric—and Apple sits on the protected side This explains why Huawei and Xiaomi, which rely heavily on mid-range and low-end models, are losing ground. 2. The memory shortage is structurally different from past chip crises This isn’t a generic semiconductor shortage: Capacity has shifted toward HBM and high-end memory for Nvidia’s AI accelerators Smartphone OEMs are competing for lower-margin, less str

Costs are rising, but not alarmingly Quarterly cost growth (0.9%) has picked up, yet it remains below the long-term average. Annual growth of 2.3% is modest by historical standards and far from the post-COVID spike. This suggests inflationary pressure is returning, but in a measured way. Demand is coming back as conditions ease Lower mortgage rates and improved business confidence are unlocking delayed projects. Building approvals nearing a three-year high indicate a genuine pipeline forming. Spare capacity in the industry is starting to be absorbed, which naturally pushes costs higher. Labour constraints are an early warning sign The NZIER survey showing increased difficulty in finding skilled workers aligns with Davidson’s comments. Labour makes up ~40% of construction costs, so tighteni

Balanced / analytical take Intel’s rally looks more like a political and narrative-driven trade than a fundamentals one. A 76x forward P/E with a money-losing foundry business assumes 18A succeeds and that big customers like Apple actually commit—neither of which is confirmed yet. Until there’s a signed foundry deal, this feels speculative. Skeptical / cautious A 31% run in a month on hopes and presidential comments is risky. Trump saying “Apple went in” without clarity doesn’t equal a contract, and Intel’s foundry is still bleeding billions. Valuation looks stretched compared to peers. Bullish but realistic If Intel really lands Apple on 18A, this stock still has upside despite the valuation. The question is execution—Intel has to prove it can manufacture at scale and on time, which is wh