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很有用
很有用
·
06:12
🙏
@逸名:
$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ 離我的成本還有兩元,衝高先出掉一些
$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ 離我的成本還有兩元,衝高先出掉一些
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很有用
很有用
·
06:11
👍
@逸名:
$Strategy(MSTR)$ 很久沒有做空,手癢做一把
$Strategy(MSTR)$ 很久沒有做空,手癢做一把
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很有用
很有用
·
06:11
👍
@逸名:
$Strategy(MSTR)$ 很久沒有做空,手癢做一把
$Strategy(MSTR)$ 很久沒有做空,手癢做一把
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很有用
很有用
·
06:11
👍
@逸名:
$Strategy(MSTR)$ 很久沒有做空,手癢做一把
$Strategy(MSTR)$ 很久沒有做空,手癢做一把
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很有用
很有用
·
06:10
🙏
@退休閒人:
$OXY 20260605 57.0 CALL$ 平倉了一張put,賺了一戲茶,將賺到的錢,在正股56.2時反手又買張call, 若星期六日,美伊又緊張,下星期又有糊食!
$OXY 20260605 57.0 CALL$ 平倉了一張put,賺了一戲茶,將賺到的錢,在正股56.2時反手又買張call, 若星期六日,美伊又緊張,下星期又有糊食!
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·
06:10
👍👍
@股壇新手ton:
$SMCI 20260529 44.0 PUT$ 原來費用只要1.05 咁比富途仲係少至少1usd
$SMCI 20260529 44.0 PUT$ 原來費用只要1.05 咁比富途仲係少至少1usd
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很有用
很有用
·
05-23
[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
@過路人:
$JD 20260522 31.0 CALL$ 又中左伏。用夜盤以31.07入左貨。賣即日call。執返0.11期權金都好[难过]
$JD 20260522 31.0 CALL$ 又中左伏。用夜盤以31.07入左貨。賣即日call。執返0.11期權金都好[难过]
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很有用
·
05-18
😂
從晶片、雲、模型到應用的資本分層
@金星匯MoneyLeadersClub:
過去兩年,美股市場談 AI,最常見的問題是:某隻股票的市盈率是否太高?這個問題並非沒有意義,但若只用一層 PE 去判斷整個 AI 產業鏈,往往會得出過分簡化的結論。AI 並不是一個單一行業,而是一套由晶片、伺服器、雲端、模型、數據、軟件及應用組成的多層資本結構。每一層的收入質素、資本開支、折舊週期、客戶集中度和定價能力都不同,因此估值方法也不應相同。 最底層是晶片與半導體設備。這一層最接近「鏟子與鐵路」的角色,Nvidia、AMD、Broadcom、臺積電、ASML、Applied Materials 等公司,承接的是 AI 熱潮中最早出現、也最實在的需求:算力。當雲巨頭、模型公司和企業客戶都需要訓練和推理能力時,GPU、先進封裝、HBM 記憶體、光通訊和網絡晶片自然成為瓶頸。瓶頸所在,通常就是利潤所在。因此,市場願意給予晶片龍頭較高估值,並不只是因為「AI 故事」,而是因為它們在供應鏈中擁有實際議價權。 但晶片股的估值也不能只看高增長。半導體始終有周期性,一旦客戶過度囤貨、技術路線轉變,或雲巨頭加快自研晶片,增長曲線便可能突然放緩。晶片公司的高 PE,實際上包含兩個假設:第一,AI 算力需求會長期高於供給;第二,龍頭公司能維持技術和生態優勢。若其中一個假設動搖,估值壓縮可以來得很快。 第二層是雲與數據中心基建。Microsoft、Amazon、Google、Oracle、Meta 等公司正在大量投資 GPU、數據中心、網絡和電力容量。它們不是單純買晶片,而是在建立下一代計算平臺。這一層的估值難點,在於資本開支先行,回報滯後。投資者不能只看雲收入增長,也要問:每一美元 AI capex 最終能產生多少增量收入?Copilot、Gemini、AWS AI 服務、Oracle Cloud GPU 租賃,到底能否帶來足夠高的回報? 雲巨頭的優勢是資金雄厚、客戶基礎龐大、分發渠道成
從晶片、雲、模型到應用的資本分層
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很久沒有做空,手癢做一把","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/569629914850216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":569697638442824,"gmtCreate":1780092658068,"gmtModify":1780100102454,"author":{"id":"4191073088947562","authorId":"4191073088947562","name":"很有用","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c51e81957183f6b94c033243fe3b95d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4191073088947562","authorIdStr":"4191073088947562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🙏","listText":"🙏","text":"🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/569697638442824","repostId":"569629874656560","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":569629874656560,"gmtCreate":1780076089380,"gmtModify":1780084955356,"author":{"id":"4137909894493212","authorId":"4137909894493212","name":"退休閒人","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4137909894493212","authorIdStr":"4137909894493212"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SMCI 20260529 44.0 PUT\">$SMCI 20260529 44.0 PUT$ </a>原來費用只要1.05 咁比富途仲係少至少1usd","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/SMCI 20260529 44.0 PUT\">$SMCI 20260529 44.0 PUT$ </a>原來費用只要1.05 咁比富途仲係少至少1usd","text":"$SMCI 20260529 44.0 PUT$ 原來費用只要1.05 咁比富途仲係少至少1usd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/569630486193976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":567191841427632,"gmtCreate":1779503789423,"gmtModify":1779504145835,"author":{"id":"4191073088947562","authorId":"4191073088947562","name":"很有用","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c51e81957183f6b94c033243fe3b95d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4191073088947562","authorIdStr":"4191073088947562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] ","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/567191841427632","repostId":"567140893840680","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":567140893840680,"gmtCreate":1779491436401,"gmtModify":1779511471623,"author":{"id":"4182426465066882","authorId":"4182426465066882","name":"過路人","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/502b7056b781d0ec55300ea9614ff858","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4182426465066882","authorIdStr":"4182426465066882"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/JD 20260522 31.0 CALL\">$JD 20260522 31.0 CALL$ </a>又中左伏。用夜盤以31.07入左貨。賣即日call。執返0.11期權金都好[难过] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/JD 20260522 31.0 CALL\">$JD 20260522 31.0 CALL$ </a>又中左伏。用夜盤以31.07入左貨。賣即日call。執返0.11期權金都好[难过] ","text":"$JD 20260522 31.0 CALL$ 又中左伏。用夜盤以31.07入左貨。賣即日call。執返0.11期權金都好[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/567140893840680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":565256600965464,"gmtCreate":1779035206889,"gmtModify":1779068572271,"author":{"id":"4191073088947562","authorId":"4191073088947562","name":"很有用","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c51e81957183f6b94c033243fe3b95d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4191073088947562","authorIdStr":"4191073088947562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😂","listText":"😂","text":"😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/565256600965464","repostId":"564088044524672","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":564088044524672,"gmtCreate":1778749918172,"gmtModify":1778840605218,"author":{"id":"4113935132672212","authorId":"4113935132672212","name":"金星匯MoneyLeadersClub","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/649ae0d991ae5b698f6a5a42f39da423","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113935132672212","authorIdStr":"4113935132672212"},"themes":[],"title":"從晶片、雲、模型到應用的資本分層","htmlText":"過去兩年,美股市場談 AI,最常見的問題是:某隻股票的市盈率是否太高?這個問題並非沒有意義,但若只用一層 PE 去判斷整個 AI 產業鏈,往往會得出過分簡化的結論。AI 並不是一個單一行業,而是一套由晶片、伺服器、雲端、模型、數據、軟件及應用組成的多層資本結構。每一層的收入質素、資本開支、折舊週期、客戶集中度和定價能力都不同,因此估值方法也不應相同。 最底層是晶片與半導體設備。這一層最接近「鏟子與鐵路」的角色,Nvidia、AMD、Broadcom、臺積電、ASML、Applied Materials 等公司,承接的是 AI 熱潮中最早出現、也最實在的需求:算力。當雲巨頭、模型公司和企業客戶都需要訓練和推理能力時,GPU、先進封裝、HBM 記憶體、光通訊和網絡晶片自然成為瓶頸。瓶頸所在,通常就是利潤所在。因此,市場願意給予晶片龍頭較高估值,並不只是因為「AI 故事」,而是因為它們在供應鏈中擁有實際議價權。 但晶片股的估值也不能只看高增長。半導體始終有周期性,一旦客戶過度囤貨、技術路線轉變,或雲巨頭加快自研晶片,增長曲線便可能突然放緩。晶片公司的高 PE,實際上包含兩個假設:第一,AI 算力需求會長期高於供給;第二,龍頭公司能維持技術和生態優勢。若其中一個假設動搖,估值壓縮可以來得很快。 第二層是雲與數據中心基建。Microsoft、Amazon、Google、Oracle、Meta 等公司正在大量投資 GPU、數據中心、網絡和電力容量。它們不是單純買晶片,而是在建立下一代計算平臺。這一層的估值難點,在於資本開支先行,回報滯後。投資者不能只看雲收入增長,也要問:每一美元 AI capex 最終能產生多少增量收入?Copilot、Gemini、AWS AI 服務、Oracle Cloud GPU 租賃,到底能否帶來足夠高的回報? 雲巨頭的優勢是資金雄厚、客戶基礎龐大、分發渠道成","listText":"過去兩年,美股市場談 AI,最常見的問題是:某隻股票的市盈率是否太高?這個問題並非沒有意義,但若只用一層 PE 去判斷整個 AI 產業鏈,往往會得出過分簡化的結論。AI 並不是一個單一行業,而是一套由晶片、伺服器、雲端、模型、數據、軟件及應用組成的多層資本結構。每一層的收入質素、資本開支、折舊週期、客戶集中度和定價能力都不同,因此估值方法也不應相同。 最底層是晶片與半導體設備。這一層最接近「鏟子與鐵路」的角色,Nvidia、AMD、Broadcom、臺積電、ASML、Applied Materials 等公司,承接的是 AI 熱潮中最早出現、也最實在的需求:算力。當雲巨頭、模型公司和企業客戶都需要訓練和推理能力時,GPU、先進封裝、HBM 記憶體、光通訊和網絡晶片自然成為瓶頸。瓶頸所在,通常就是利潤所在。因此,市場願意給予晶片龍頭較高估值,並不只是因為「AI 故事」,而是因為它們在供應鏈中擁有實際議價權。 但晶片股的估值也不能只看高增長。半導體始終有周期性,一旦客戶過度囤貨、技術路線轉變,或雲巨頭加快自研晶片,增長曲線便可能突然放緩。晶片公司的高 PE,實際上包含兩個假設:第一,AI 算力需求會長期高於供給;第二,龍頭公司能維持技術和生態優勢。若其中一個假設動搖,估值壓縮可以來得很快。 第二層是雲與數據中心基建。Microsoft、Amazon、Google、Oracle、Meta 等公司正在大量投資 GPU、數據中心、網絡和電力容量。它們不是單純買晶片,而是在建立下一代計算平臺。這一層的估值難點,在於資本開支先行,回報滯後。投資者不能只看雲收入增長,也要問:每一美元 AI capex 最終能產生多少增量收入?Copilot、Gemini、AWS AI 服務、Oracle Cloud GPU 租賃,到底能否帶來足夠高的回報? 雲巨頭的優勢是資金雄厚、客戶基礎龐大、分發渠道成","text":"過去兩年,美股市場談 AI,最常見的問題是:某隻股票的市盈率是否太高?這個問題並非沒有意義,但若只用一層 PE 去判斷整個 AI 產業鏈,往往會得出過分簡化的結論。AI 並不是一個單一行業,而是一套由晶片、伺服器、雲端、模型、數據、軟件及應用組成的多層資本結構。每一層的收入質素、資本開支、折舊週期、客戶集中度和定價能力都不同,因此估值方法也不應相同。 最底層是晶片與半導體設備。這一層最接近「鏟子與鐵路」的角色,Nvidia、AMD、Broadcom、臺積電、ASML、Applied Materials 等公司,承接的是 AI 熱潮中最早出現、也最實在的需求:算力。當雲巨頭、模型公司和企業客戶都需要訓練和推理能力時,GPU、先進封裝、HBM 記憶體、光通訊和網絡晶片自然成為瓶頸。瓶頸所在,通常就是利潤所在。因此,市場願意給予晶片龍頭較高估值,並不只是因為「AI 故事」,而是因為它們在供應鏈中擁有實際議價權。 但晶片股的估值也不能只看高增長。半導體始終有周期性,一旦客戶過度囤貨、技術路線轉變,或雲巨頭加快自研晶片,增長曲線便可能突然放緩。晶片公司的高 PE,實際上包含兩個假設:第一,AI 算力需求會長期高於供給;第二,龍頭公司能維持技術和生態優勢。若其中一個假設動搖,估值壓縮可以來得很快。 第二層是雲與數據中心基建。Microsoft、Amazon、Google、Oracle、Meta 等公司正在大量投資 GPU、數據中心、網絡和電力容量。它們不是單純買晶片,而是在建立下一代計算平臺。這一層的估值難點,在於資本開支先行,回報滯後。投資者不能只看雲收入增長,也要問:每一美元 AI capex 最終能產生多少增量收入?Copilot、Gemini、AWS AI 服務、Oracle Cloud GPU 租賃,到底能否帶來足夠高的回報? 雲巨頭的優勢是資金雄厚、客戶基礎龐大、分發渠道成","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4d29401b45093551051088c017d4a8cb"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/564088044524672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}