To The Moon

As I've been saying endlessly markets overshoot both ways. We've now overshot to the downside and the risk of not investing here is outweighed by the reward. Averaging in at these levels I believe will pay nicely. Safest plays here remain the hyperscalers with $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ still being my favorite. They're the ones that have the capital to absorb any potential delays and are less reliant on those who are fully dependent on debt. Semis remain a clear opportunity as well. Personally remain long $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ despite the headlines. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ now trades ~14x NTM PE whilst the likes of

My $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ forecasts to 2029: 2026: $769M in revenue 2027: $1B in revenue (+31%) -> US liver will make up ~$700M of that with heart at $154M. 2028: $1.21B (21% growth) 2029: $1.47B (21% growth) (first material bit of kidney revenue but only modelling in ~$40M). Forecasting operating margin to be ~26% by 2029 with net margin at ~19%. $1.47B * 19% -> $279M in net income for 2029 $279M / 42M shares -> an EPS of $6.65 (which would be 71% CAGR from 2026 to 2029). My opinion is based on this growth and based on peers, a 20x EPS multiple would be nearer to the floor. 20x * $6.65 -> $133 30x * $6.55 -> $200

A few tips on the market crash: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -> Don't try and time the bottom. You're just catching a falling knife and that won't end up well. It's all about just GRADUALLY lowering your average cost. Sounds simple but you'd be surprised what a human in panic mode tries to do when the market falls this much. -> Fundamentals haven't changed as much as investors and/or the market believes it to have done. What ACTUALLY changed since Monday? An AI "slowdown"? And AI "ban"? This will not happen. The race against China is far more important. And even if a 10-20% slowdown does happen, that's probably a good thing for the longevity of the AI trade. The other way to look at it is to find those companies where a 10-20% slowdow

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 The more definite winners will be: 1. Those who have a diversified portfolio across US, EMEA & APAC 2. Those who have secured capacity capacity. 3. Those who have permits approved $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ answers all three. 2 Another extremely bullish $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ call: I'm now forecasting ~$345M in revenue in FY27 and then 40% CAGR from there to 2030. That'll give us $950M in revenue in 2030. At 30% EBITDA margins we have $285M in EBITDA. At a 25x EBITDA multiple that'd give us a $7.2B EV. Equity value would be ~$7.6B. At ~5% dilution, we'll end up with a bull case target ~$85. "Everything that moves is

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ price has changed recently but my 2030 estimates remain exactly the same. We've had nothing but positive neocloud commentary: Jensen: "If you look at the fundamentals, the demand for neoclouds is off the charts." $70-90B in ARR in FY30 -> 40% EBITDA margins ($32B in EBITDA) -> 13x multiple -> $416B valuation (just on the core business side). I could write a bearish take on $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ here now the valuation is cut and get easy impressions...but I hate people that are doing that. $SpaceX(SPCX)$ wouldn't be investing billio

1 Some high risk thematic bets. You don't need all of these to win to do very well: Optics:$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ now trades below the forecasted transceiver revenue run rate in 2027. Neoclouds: $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ now trades ~0.4x my base case FY30 ARR figure. Copper: $Trilogy Metals(TMQ)$ is now down 32% in the last month and back to the same level as when it was announced the US Gov owned 10%. Robotics: $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$ set to grow at ~40% CAGR whilst trading sub 8x sales. $Aeva Technologies Inc

Risk to reward for $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is better than all other Mag-7 plays. -> AWS is growing 40% YoY and will likely sustain that for the next 2-3 years. -> Can almost value ~80% of the company on AWS alone. Where AWS is today: - $184B revenue run rate. - 39% operating margins - $578B backlog - Management guiding to 40%+ growth in both 2027 and 2028. Where AWS gets to: - 40% growth -> $246B in 2027 - 40% growth again -> $345B in 2028 - At 38% margins -> $131B in operating income from AWS alone. At 15x operating income we have a $2T company which is 77% of today's entire valuation. Which means you're valuing retail, ads, Amazon Leo, Zoox, Trainium chips, Anthropic stake and everything else at $600M. Risk to reward in

I had a look through some major drawdowns of some of the best investments of the last decade: 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$: - Up 12,400% in the last decade. - Fell 66% 2021 and 2022 2. $Micron Technology(MU)$: - Up 5,300% in the last decade. - Fell 58% between 2024 and 2025. 3, $Arista Networks(ANET)$: - Up 3,400% in the last decade - Fell 52% between 2019 and 2020 4. $Lam Research(LRCX)$: - Up 2,700% in the last decade - Fell 58% in 2022 5. $Broadcom(AVGO)$: - Up 2,500% in the last decade - Fell 48% between 2019

Money yet again flowing into defensives and homebuilders and out of the AI infrastructure trade as risk appetite switches by the day. This has to be the most indecisive market ever? What more evidence can the market want at the moment? $SpaceX(SPCX)$ and $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ single-handedly reminded (yes reminded...nothing changed from before) of the insatiable demands. Yet still by day 3 sentiment looking more positive here we are again. We're in a period where it seems like the market and investors are unsure what to bet on. Either it's the claims and posted financials from the biggest, most AI centric companies in the world and their management... or claims and "research" from

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Hopefully everyone is using a bit more logic now after $SpaceX(SPCX)$ earnings. Two biggest beneficiaries for me from Elon's comments are $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ and $NEBIUS(NBIS)$. 1. Bloom Energy | $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$: Turbine suppliers told $SpaceX(SPCX)$ that blades and vanes run 12-18 months behind the rest of the turbine and this is only getting worse. This is one of Bloom's competitive advantage. Fuel cells have no turbine blad