To The Moon

Seems like a big battle now between macro (10Y, Oil, PCE etc) and the AI narrative which is only trending in one direction: 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$: Forecasted 2028 revenue growth at +70% vs Street estimates of 44%. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ forecasts $1.3T in hyperscaler CapEx spend for 2027. 3. $SHKY CEO: "We expect the shortage (on storage) to persist until the end of 2030." 4. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$: "We see structurally massive demand for NAND until 2030." 5. $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ giving $Alphabet(GOOGL)$

Tell me how these $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ forecasts don't work out: 1. $530B in AWS revenue in 2030 in line with MS forecasts. -> At 30% NI margins and a 20x earnings multiple we have a $3.18T business. -> At 25% NI margins and a 20x earnings multiple we have a $2.65T business. 2. E-Commerce ARR is ~$550B today. -> At 10% CAGR growth we have a $833B revenue business in 2030. -> At a conservative 1x sales that's $833B in value. 3. Digital Ads ha revenue heading towards $80B with 50% operating margins. -> 20x EBIT values the business today in the $800B range. This should be a $1T business by 2030. That's a $4.5T business EXCLUDING: -> Amazon Leo -> Zoox -> One Medical -> Prime Video -> Equity stakes (If An

The more I research $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$, the more excited I get about the potential IF: 1. They can 20x their throughput in a year. 2. They can bring costs down instead of relying on customers paying a huge premium. 3. IF they can expand beyond a handful of frontier customers to become the default for anyone who needs fast tokens at scale. I'm still not convinced that given the above, I'd be happy paying 25x NTM sales for it though. But there's no argument what they've developed is market leading. -> 43 petabytes/second of on chip memory bandwidth (~2,000x more than $NVIDIA(NVDA)$). -> 4,000 tokens/sec with CS-4 vs 100 on

The commodities / durable plays for the next decade: Silver | $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$, $Contango Ore, Inc.(CTGO)$, $Hecla Mining(HL)$ -> $DXY is down 2.4% this month. -> M2 money supply is up ~5% in the last 3 months. -> AI buildout relies on silver as it's got the highest electrical conductivity of any metal. -> ~80% of silver is mined as a by-product. Copper | $Global X Copper Miners ETF(COPX)$, $Trilogy Metals(TMQ)$ -> Already incredibly scarce and getting scarcer. -> Forecasted

Think about $Silver Verde May Mining Co., Inc.(SIVE)$'s valuation for a second: A reminder in Q1, $SIVE said "over the next several years, our CAGR's are expected in the 25-30% range." Now this could be on the conservative side as that only assumes ~8-10% conversion of pipeline to revenue. That's probably a base case but let's work slightly more aggressively. If we work more ~15-20% conversion range (bullish) then the numbers still don't work that nicely. 15% conversion of $1.2B pipeline -> $69M in 2029 (~40% CAGR). 20% conversion (unlikely) of $1.2B pipeline -> $84M in 2029 (~50% CAGR). That puts $Silver Verde May Mining Co., Inc.(SIVE)$ in the range of 9.8x FY29 rev

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Really like this $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ analysis just wanted to add to it. Stablecoins are a MUST in the agentic wave which makes $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ one of the more pure AI bets over the next decade. Think about the potential stablecoin numbers we have: US Treasury has cited $3T as 2031 supply estimate. USDC is currently ~26% of total supply today (likely will increase given GENIUS Act). $3T * 26% (USDC share) = $806B $806B * 25% of all USDC = $201B of USDC on $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Yield at 4% (simplified back of the napki

Here's how I model $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ post the $600M ATM offering AH on a Friday...: 1. Revenue: Still fair to assume $5.6B in FY28 revenue (probably slightly conservative excluding ELSFP contribution). I've been over these numbers a lot. 2. Margins: 22% non-GAAP net margins is a solid base case for 2028. At $5.6B revenue scale, we should see operating leverage expansion. We see $Lumentum(LITE)$ guiding towards 36%, Innolight ~31%, and Eoptolink ~37%. 22% is also currently in line with analyst estimates (who have so far been conservative on the $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ numbers but best to take a

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ is still wildly undervalued. Here's how I think the business should be valued over the next 12 months: DATA & APPLICATIONS -> Annualized revenue based on Q2 is currently ~$410M. Growth at a similar rate into FY27 would put us at $525M. -> This business has 73% gross margins so at 28% YoY growth and those margins it's putting up figures like a solid SaaS company. -> $525M * 10x sales = $5.3B -> $525M * 12x sales = $6.3B DIAGNOSTICS -> Generated $293.3M in Q2 alone which is $1.2B annualized. Growth at a similar rate gets us to $1.5B in FY27. -> And plus, $Tempus AI(TEM)$ recently received FDA approval on xT CDx test which brings tumor DNA

Humanoids are coming and there are three public options now. We have Unitree (688836) now public at $53B. -> 2025 revenue ~$250M (humanoids were half of that). -> 2025 humanoid shipments ~ 5,500. -> ASPs ~$24k -> Production already demonstrated in the multi-thousand unit annual output range. Nomura has already initiated a 25x (yes...25x) 2027 P/S multiple for Unitree. We have $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$ (Agility) expected to go public at $2.5B pre-money. -> Trailing annual revenue ~$37M -> Cash burn ~$100M -> 150 units but 65,000 real world hours -> ~$125k BOM with a path to $30k long0term -> $300M multi-year contracted order. And we have Optimus /

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ vs $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is far cheaper but is it a better bet today? For now, yes. But let's see where $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ can get to when it's through this early IPO period. Firstly, $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ valuation was insane. It came in with an IPO that was 20x oversubscribed and then hit ~90x FY26 revenue estimates on day 1. With the stock now trading ~$52B on $900M in FY26 numbers...the valuation is still insane at ~57x 2026 forecasts. But we're also trad