Is it Micron’s “Nvidia moment”? Not quite. Nvidia benefitted from platform dominance and software lock-in. Micron and peers are riding a structural upcycle driven by AI servers needing far more DRAM and HBM per rack. The gains are broad across the memory sector rather than company-specific. How long can the imbalance last? Likely 2 to 3 years. HBM capacity is tight, capex remains disciplined after prior busts, and AI demand keeps rising. Supply will expand, but not fast enough to quickly normalise pricing. Is it too late? Late for easy upside, not late for returns. Much optimism is priced in, so upside depends on sustained pricing power rather than multiple expansion. Risk is cyclical reversal once capacity catches up. Bottom line: this is a durable but cyclical memory supercycle. Still i
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Christmas, for me, is less about escape and more about recalibration. I deliberately scale back active trading during this period. Liquidity thins, price action becomes more sentiment-driven, and the risk–reward for short-term trades deteriorates. Rather than forcing activity, I treat the final stretch of the year as a time for review rather than execution. My usual approach is a light-monitoring mode. Key levels, macro headlines, and positioning risks stay on the radar, but there is no urge to react unless something genuinely breaks framework assumptions. It is a conscious shift from doing to observing. The more valuable work happens off-market. Reviewing what worked and what did not, stress-testing convictions, reassessing
2025 can be best understood as a year of violent repricing rather than simple trend continuation. The sharp April sell-off in US equities acted as a reset. Positioning had become one-sided, valuations complacent, and macro uncertainty underestimated. The subsequent rebound to record highs was not driven by fresh optimism, but by resilience. Earnings held up, liquidity remained ample, and investors were repeatedly forced to re-risk into strength rather than conviction. Gold breaking past USD 4,000 was arguably the most revealing signal of the year. It reflected not inflation panic, but deep-seated distrust. A hedge against fiscal expansion, geopolitical fragmentation, and long-term currency debasement. That gold and equities rallied together underscored a market hedging prosperity with prot
The rebound in Nvidia alongside Micron’s earnings beat reinforces a key point. The AI-led semiconductor cycle remains fundamentally intact rather than episodic. Morgan Stanley’s conviction is grounded in structure, not sentiment. AI compute demand is broadening from training into inference, enterprise deployment, sovereign AI and edge workloads. This sustains multi-year visibility for leaders such as Broadcom and Astera Labs, alongside Nvidia at the system level. Is this a buy-the-dip for Nvidia? From a medium-term perspective, yes, selectively. Pullbacks driven by positioning, profit-taking or macro noise do not alter Nvidia’s dominant role in AI accelerators, networking and software. Valuation is elevated, but earnings revision momentum remains supportive. Tonight’s price action: A gap-u
Why 6,800 matters It is a key psychological and options-heavy strike. Without a fresh catalyst or strong mega-cap leadership, rallies into this zone tend to meet supply. Pinning vs swings Base case: Pinning dominates. Heavy near-dated options exposure typically pulls price towards the strike into the close, producing narrow ranges and late-session mean reversion. Alternative: Swings dominate only if volatility expands, for example via a sharp move in yields or a large-cap driven flow. Even then, upside breaks risk being brief without volume follow-through. Expectation Intraday probes above 6,800 are possible. A sustained close above 6,800 requires clear volume expansion. Risk-reward currently favours patience over chasing a breakout. Bottom line: Pinning pressure slightly outweighs direct
Will the bull hold S&P 500 at 6,800? 6,800 is a critical but not fragile level. The index is entering quadruple witching with an unusually large options overhang. This typically amplifies intraday volatility, but does not automatically reverse the trend. Positioning data suggests large dealer gamma clustered between ~6,750–6,850. As long as price stays within this zone, dealers are more likely to dampen downside moves through hedging flows. A clean break below 6,750 would matter. Above 6,800, the path of least resistance remains sideways to higher. Base case: 6,800 holds into expiry unless macro shocks emerge. --- How much does the BOJ rate hike matter for US stocks? Direct impact is modest. Indirect impact is real but gradual. Why the immediate effect is limited The hike from 0.5% to
$Micron Technology(MU)$ What Is Driving the Recent Move Micron’s latest earnings release exceeded Wall Street expectations on both revenue and adjusted EPS, and the company issued very strong guidance for the upcoming quarter. This performance was powered by record-high demand for memory products used in artificial intelligence infrastructure, especially high-bandwidth memory that supports advanced AI models. Analysts and market commentators are framing this as a potential “memory supercycle” driven by AI adoption in data centres and constrained supply. Key points on this theme include: DRAM and HBM revenues expanded sharply, boosting both top line and margins. Micron management projects memory shortages persisting beyond 202
How to View Tesla’s Recent Move to New Highs 1. Market reaction is fundamentally narrative-driven rather than based on near-term earnings growth Tesla’s shares have climbed toward or above recent record levels largely because investors are repricing the company from a pure EV manufacturer to a software-centric, autonomous-mobility and AI platform provider. The catalyst this week was Elon Musk’s confirmation that Tesla is testing driverless robotaxis without human safety monitors, rather than incremental delivery figures or auto margin improvement. This development is being treated as meaningful progression toward autonomous commercial service. 2. The narrative supports a higher stock multiple Wall Street bulls such as analysts from Mizuho and Wedbush have raised price targets, some i
Trade idea for today (tactical, short-term): Bias: Selective long in semiconductors Setup: Momentum continuation after Micron’s earnings beat and strong guidance, with spillover support for AI and memory-linked names. Execution: Enter on a pullback to intraday support or a successful retest of the 20–50 period intraday moving average. Avoid chasing the open. Let early volatility settle. Target: +3% to +5% for a day to short swing trade. Trail stops if sector breadth strengthens. Risk control: Tight stop just below the morning swing low or key intraday support. Keep position size modest due to elevated expectations. What would invalidate the trade: Broad tech weakness despite positive MU follow-through. Rising yields or sudden risk-off tone. Bottom line: This is a momentum trade, not a con
$Micron Technology(MU)$ Here is a considered, structured perspective on Micron’s strength, memory sector positioning, and the broader semiconductor landscape: --- 1. Micron’s Outperformance in Context Micron’s recent earnings beat and strong guidance reflect a favourable combination of supply discipline and robust end-market demand, especially in AI-related infrastructure. Tight supply in memory naturally supports pricing and margin stability, which in turn fuels share performance. The market reaction shows confidence in the current cycle, but elevated expectations can also compress future upside if results normalise even modestly. Key points to watch for Micron over the next few quarters: Sustainability of product pricing in DRAM and NAND, In