Alphabet vs Amazon: whose earnings best prove AI monetisation? Alphabet Alphabet’s proof point is Search + Cloud. If Gemini features lift ad yield and engagement without compressing margins, and Google Cloud shows faster growth with improving operating margins, that is direct evidence AI is monetising at scale. Risk: high AI capex diluting margins if revenue lift lags. Amazon Amazon’s test is AWS. Clear signs that AI workloads are driving reacceleration in AWS growth and margin expansion would validate monetisation more cleanly. Enterprise contracts, higher attach rates, and operating leverage make AI revenue easier to attribute. Verdict • Cleaner AI monetisation signal: Amazon (AWS is a paid, usage-driven platform). • Bigger strategic payoff if it lands: Alphabet (AI defending Search mar
Here are the major developments around Alphabet Inc. ahead of its earnings release on 4 February 2026, focusing squarely on your questions about AI momentum, Google Cloud, and competitive pressures on margins. The consensus view heading into the print reflects strong fundamentals mixed with heightened expectations and execution risk. Can AI Momentum Meaningfully Reaccelerate Google Cloud Growth This Quarter? Yes — but with important caveats. • AI-driven demand is supporting robust Google Cloud expansion. Consensus estimates before the earnings release project ~34 – 36 per cent year-on-year Cloud revenue growth in Q4, with approximately $16 billion in sales, signalling continued acceleration. This is notable given the hyper-competitive landscape against AWS and Azure. • Cloud ba
The sharp rebound in precious metals over the last session certainly captures traders’ attention, but it does not yet constitute an unquestionable resumption of a sustained rally. The recovery reflects short-term technical dynamics, positioning adjustments and risk-off sentiment rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Here is a structured view of the factors at play. Key Drivers Behind the Bounce 1. Technical Rebound After Selloffs Gold and silver were deeply oversold after two days of aggressive declines and forced liquidations. When futures and ETF positioning gets extremely stretched to the downside, short-covering and relief buying are common. The intraday moves of +3% in gold and +5% in silver are characteristic of such rebounds. These moves alone do not guarantee a longer-term trend
Advanced Micro Devices: Guidance in Context Guidance Summary AMD reported above-consensus revenue and EPS for its latest quarter, with data-centre revenue of around $5.4 billion. For Q1 2026, guidance was roughly $9.5 billion to $10.1 billion (midpoint of about $9.8 billion), slightly above Street expectations but down sequentially from Q4. Market Reaction Investors focused on the sequential decline in anticipated quarterly sales as a signal that the AI hardware build-out, while intact, might be normalising after a peak cadence of orders. The stock’s downward move reflects this recalibration rather than a fundamental earnings miss. The guidance, though slightly below the most bullish forecasts, was nonetheless in line with analyst estimates and represented a conservative
Gold and silver Possibly a buying opportunity, but not an aggressive one. The selloff was driven more by forced liquidations than weakening fundamentals. Gold’s structural support remains intact, though near-term volatility is likely. Gradual accumulation is preferable. Silver remains higher risk due to speculation. Big Tech in February Selective trimming makes sense. Underperformance points to leadership fatigue, not a broken AI story. Reducing crowded, fully valued names helps manage concentration risk while keeping core exposure. January Barometer for 2026 Supportive, but not decisive. Policy uncertainty and cross-asset volatility suggest a choppy Q1. A pullback would not rule out a constructive 2026. January earnings Solid but uneven. Guidance mattered more than beats. Markets reward
A thoughtful set of questions. January rarely tells a simple story this year. 1. Is the Gold and Silver selloff a “Golden Pit”? Possibly, but selectively and with discipline. The drawdown had all the hallmarks of forced liquidation rather than a fundamental breakdown. Structural drivers for gold remain intact, including central bank demand, geopolitical hedging and longer-term policy uncertainty. That said, after such extreme volatility, a period of consolidation would be healthy. Gradual accumulation on weakness looks more prudent than aggressive dip-buying, especially for silver, which remains far more speculative. 2. Trimming Big Tech in February? Not a wholesale exit, but some rebalancing makes sense. Big Tech is no longer uniformly cheap, and leadership has narrowed. Trimming stretche
Market Context and Recent Price Action Recent sharp sell-offs in gold and silver were among the most extreme in decades, reflecting forced liquidations, extreme leverage unwinding, and technical stresses rather than outright changes in fundamentals. Silver, in particular, saw outsized moves driven by speculative positioning in China and subsequent margin calls. Both metals then staged a strong intraday rebound, with spot gold back above $4 800 and silver reclaiming around the $83 mark. Short-term price spikes and reversals of this magnitude often occur when markets have been stretched beyond typical trading ranges. These reversals can be driven as much by trading dynamics (positions getting flushed) as by investor sentiment. --- Is This a Renewed Rally? Arguments in favour of a
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Earnings and Guidance Highlights Palantir reported Q4 2025 results that significantly beat expectations with revenue of about $1.41 billion (up ~70 per cent year-on-year) and adjusted EPS topping forecasts. The company’s strong performance was driven by both U.S. government and commercial segments. Management issued upbeat guidance for 2026, forecasting full-year revenue of approximately $7.18–7.20 billion (around ~61 per cent growth) and guiding first-quarter revenue ahead of consensus. After the results the stock rallied meaningfully in after-hours and pre-market trading, reversing some earlier weakness this year. Drivers of Growth Demand remains very strong from U.S. government an
My call for Friday’s close (post-earnings): $140–$160 is the highest-probability outcome. Why: The market is already pricing a large move. A clean beat on revenue and EPS is likely, but to push above $160, Palantir needs clearly upgraded 2026 guidance and strong commentary on US commercial AI momentum. A “beat but guide inline” outcome usually caps upside. Below $140 only comes into play if guidance disappoints or macro risk-off intensifies. Will Palantir stage a comeback? Yes, but it is more likely a grind, not a vertical move. Fundamentals remain intact and the sell-off looks positioning-driven, not thesis-breaking. Is $200 easy to hit in 2026? No. Possible, but not easy. It requires sustained commercial growth acceleration, expanding margins, and a supportive macro for high-multiple A
Is this short-term deleveraging or a deeper trend shift? Near term: deleveraging. Medium term: narrative stress. The current move has all the hallmarks of a forced unwind rather than a fundamental collapse. ETF outflows, reduced risk appetite, and tighter liquidity conditions are pressuring leveraged positioning. That said, the divergence versus gold is real and matters. Crypto is behaving like a high-beta liquidity asset, not a defensive store of value, which weakens the “digital gold” framing in this phase of the cycle. This does not kill the long-term thesis, but it re-anchors crypto firmly to global liquidity, not safe-haven demand. Are you buying the dip or staying on the sidelines? I would not aggressively buy this first leg down. Historically, sharp crypto drawdowns linked to macro