To The Moon

We have just witnessed the largest retail investor buying on record. I don’t have specific data on retail buying and future performance, but the previous retail buying high for this chart was early 2022 which was a major top. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image

Halfway through Q4 earnings, these stocks have outperformed revenue estimates the most so far. $Mercury(MRCY)$ $Aviat Networks(AVNW)$ $TAL Education Group(TAL)$ $Brinker(EAT)$ $Cirrus Logic(CRUS)$ $Aurora Cannabis Inc(ACB)$ $ATI Inc(ATI)$ $F5 Inc(FFIV)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ $Viavi Solutio

It’s a stock pickers market.So far thru Q4 earnings, companies beating estimates by >1 Std Dev have outperformed the $.SPX(.SPX)$ by +1.4% in the session after reporting (vs historical avg of +1.0% of outperformance). Companies missing earnings estimates are being punished twice as much as the historical avg (-4.3% vs avg of -2.1%).Image

Retail traders have been loading up during the recent Tech selloff. They have net bought $8.1B in equities this past week, the largest retail inflow in 2+ years. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image

Following consecutive years of >20%+ gains, Year 3 tends to be much more challenging.Only once have we seen 3 straight years with >20% returns. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Image

We saw HEAVY dip buying during yesterday’s Tech rout. - Biggest 1D inflow to $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ since 2021- Record inflows to $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ with 88% BUY orders- Record inflows to leveraged ETFs $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ $Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares(TNA)$ Imageill Semis close the valuation gap? $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

With the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ sinking -3% following the DeepSeek breakthrough, we are seeing a clear shift towards AI Software today. CEOs surveyed by BofA prefer the below Back Office SaaS vendors for AI most: $Workday(WDAY)$ +3% $Asana, Inc.(ASAN)$ +9% $Alarm.com(ALRM)$ +2% $Zoom(ZM)$ +2% $Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$ +1% $BILL HOLDINGS INC(BILL)$ +1% $ServiceNow(NOW)$ +2% $Twilio(TWLO)$ +2%Image

4 of the Mag 7 stocks are set to report earnings next week. This is the most friendly positioning backdrop we have seen into Mag 7 prints in a long time.The group long/short ratio is currently in the 5th percentile vs. the past year. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Image

The 5 industries talking about AI the most:👇👇👇1.) Software2.) Tech Hardware 3.) Semis 4.) Commercial Services 5.) Media & Entertainment $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF(IGV)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ ImageThis is what I posted earlier：Software, Semis, Energy, and Utilities are seen as the 4 biggest beneficiarie

A list of preferred AI Infrastructure vendors, according to CEOs surveyed by BofA: 👇👇👇 $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Big drop off… $Oracle(ORCL)$ $GitLab, Inc.(GTLB)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Dynatrace Holdings LLC(DT)$ $Confluent, Inc.(CFLT)$ Image