To The Moon

Thursday was another brutal day for US stocks. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped -1.2%. The $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ fell -2.6%, its worst day since June. Semis $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ got hit the hardest, tanking -6.7%. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ earnings set the tone (and not in a good way). The SPX is just -2.3% off its highs. Goldman’s High Beta Momentum basket is -41% ‼️ That’s through Wednesday’s close. BEFORE today’s tech wreck. Momentum is no doubt down closer to -45% + after today’s bloodbath. How did we get here? Let’s rewind back to July. 👇

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is just ~1% below its highs, yet Goldman’s High Beta Momentum basket has plunged 41%. Meanwhile, semiconductors have fallen 26% relative to the $SPX from their relative highs. Over the past 20+ years, only three episodes went meaningfully deeper: 2008 financial crisis 2022 bear market Liberation Day sell-off 👇 Watch $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ This is a massive divergence beneath the surface. The headline index looks resilient, but high-beta momentum and semiconductors tell a very different story. When leadership deteriorates this sharply while t

Dip buying has been aggressive this week. The clearest sign? The 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ is on track for its largest-ever week of net inflows. That’s a major vote of confidence from traders betting on a semiconductor rebound. But record inflows into a leveraged ETF can cut both ways: they amplify exposure to a recovery while increasing the pain if the selloff continues. The key question: Is this dip buying the start of a sustained rebound, or are traders stepping in too early? Strong inflows show conviction—not confirmation. Watch price action before assuming the bottom is in. Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields, oil

Here’s what’s happening under the hood 👇 Some of the biggest winners of the AI boom are now deep in bear-market territory, with many down more than 50% from their highs. $Oracle(ORCL)$ $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $Corning(GLW)$ $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ The AI narra

The index is telling one story. The average stock is telling another. 📉 134 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ stocks are down 40% or more from their highs. That’s roughly 27% of the entire index. Meanwhile, the $SPX is sitting just 0.1% below its all-time high. That’s a massive disconnect beneath the surface. Index strength is masking significant damage across individual stocks, with a narrow group of leaders keeping the headline market elevated. 👀 The key question: Does strength eventually broaden to the beaten-down names, or does weakness spread to the index leaders? Watch market breadth closely. The headline high alone doesn’t tell the whole story. Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields,

The 3M correlation between the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF(RSP)$ (equal weight) just hit 15 year lows. This is the narrowest market in decades. 👇 Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields, oil prices and rate expectations keeping markets on edge this week, investors are once again thinking carefully about where to position next. There’s no one-size-fits-all choice in investing — and the same goes for Tiger Merch. This month’s hot picks are in, featuring the Tiger Toiletry Bag, Universal Travel Adapter, Tiger Umbrella and more favourites chosen by fellow Tigers. Explore the Monthly Hot Picks in Tiger Coin Ma

Another one for the bears. 👇 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just logged 10 straight sessions with more 52-week lows than 52-week highs while sitting within 2% of its highs. That’s an unusual divergence. Since 1990, this has happened only two other times: December 1999January 2000 Both occurred right around the peak of the Dot-Com Bubble. Does that mean the market is about to repeat 2000? No. But when the index is sitting near highs while breadth underneath is deteriorating this aggressively, it’s a signal worth paying attention to. Bears have a data point. Now they need the price action to confirm it. Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields, oil prices and rate expectations keeping markets

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is just 0.7% below its all-time high. But underneath the index, the picture looks very different. 📉 The median $SPX stock is 16% below its 52-week high. Only 51% of $SPX stocks are above their 200-day moving averages. Yet the index is still within roughly 0.5% of a record. That combination is extremely unusual. The last time the market saw a similar setup was March 2000, when the index was near record highs while participation underneath was already deteriorating. 👇 The key takeaway: Index strength ≠ broad market strength. A handful of large stocks can keep the $SPX near its highs even while a much larger part of the market is already correcting. That makes market breadth one of the most important things to watch right now.

📈 Treasury bond volatility is suddenly picking up, while equity-market volatility remains relatively subdued. The divergence matters because bonds sit at the center of financing costs, liquidity and rate expectations across the broader market. 👀 When Treasury volatility rises sharply without an immediate reaction from stocks, the gap can eventually close through a move in equity volatility. That does not guarantee a selloff, but it does suggest that the current calm in equities may be less stable than it appears. 🏦 For $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , the key issue is whether rising rate uncertainty begins to pressure large-cap valuations. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ could be more sensitive given its concentration in growth a

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ is sitting near a record high. But underneath the surface, the market looks very different. Only about 48% of S&P 500 stocks are currently above their 200-day moving averages, meaning roughly 52% are below. The index was just 0.44% from its record close on Tuesday. The last time the S&P 500 was this close to a record while a similar share of its components traded below the 200DMA was March 2000, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That doesn’t tell us what happens next. It does tell us that index strength is being carried by a relatively narrow group of stocks. The headline index can look healthy while the average stock underneath it tells a very different story. That divergence is worth watching. Markets are always mov