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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2023-03-30
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2022-07-18
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-15
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Hui Yean
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2022-07-14
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Virtual Fire is too strong! PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered
第二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，继美光发布悲观预测后，预计还会有更多坏消息传来。疫情以来的电子设备消费热潮正在消退，持续两年多的芯片供
Virtual Fire is too strong! PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered
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2022-07-11
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-09
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Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy "lost" for three decades?
7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元
Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy "lost" for three decades?
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-07
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Foreign media headlines | Deutsche Bank expects a full-scale recession in the United States next year
美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的美联储周三公布了6月份联邦公开市场委员会货币政策会议的纪要文件。会议纪要显示，美联储多数官员认为经济增长风险偏向下行。如果通胀未能降温，美联储可能会采取“更具限制性”的政策。市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票市场预测专家Dennis Gartman警告称，在当前的熊市购买股票“是愚蠢的事”。
Foreign media headlines | Deutsche Bank expects a full-scale recession in the United States next year
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-06
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Hui Yean
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2022-07-04
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Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million
这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都
Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million
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Hui Yean
Hui Yean
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2022-07-02
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PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166021735","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"第二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，继美光发布悲观预测后，预计还会有更多坏消息传来。疫情以来的电子设备消费热潮正在消退，持续两年多的芯片供","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Global PC shipments fell 12.6% year-over-year in the second quarter, the biggest decline in nine years. U.S. chip earnings season kicked off later this month, and more bad news is expected following Micron's bearish forecast. The consumption boom of electronic devices since the pandemic is receding, and the chip supply shortage that has lasted for more than two years is turning into a glut.</p><p>Data recently released by information technology research firm Gartner Inc. show that global demand for personal computers fell sharply in the second quarter of this year,<b>Computer makers shipped 72 million units between April and June, down 12.6% from a year earlier and the biggest drop in nine years.</b></p><p>The decline in demand seen since the first quarter accelerated in the second quarter due to ongoing geopolitical instability due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflationary pressures on spending, and a sharp drop in demand for Google's web notebook, the ChromeBook, according to Mikako Kitagawa, head of research at Gartner.</p><p>Global equipment shipments fell about 15.3% year over year in the second quarter, according to International Data Corp., another agency.</p><p>Jitesh Ubrani, research manager at IDC, said recession fears continue to mount, weakening demand in various sectors. However, he also noted that overall shipments remain above pre-pandemic levels despite the recent decline in demand.</p><p><b>Both Gartner and IDC say the world's top three PC suppliers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Shipments both declined in the second quarter.</b></p><p>U.S. PC demand fell 17.5%, largely due to a 50% drop in ChromeBook shipments, according to Gartner.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b339c8c4c96d2c36de079f3228d4569\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Winter is coming for the chip industry?</b></p><p>Consumption of electronic devices has skyrocketed during the pandemic to accommodate remote work and remote education, as well as the recreational demands of stay-at-home quarantine, but in recent months there have been growing signs that this trend has changed.</p><p>In May, several PC makers, including HP and Dell, warned that consumer demand for PCs was waning, especially for lower-priced products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in June that the outlook for the second half of the year had become \"very chaotic\" and that the company would look to adjust spending and investments to accommodate that reality. In June, Intel temporarily froze hiring in its PC chip division and introduced other austerity measures.</p><p>Late last month, memory chip makers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Issued guidance for fourth-quarter results well below expectations, reflecting a slowdown in two key markets of computers and smartphones. Although the expression used by Micron executives when describing future demand is \"weakened\", judging from the specific figures, the demand in the chip industry may have declined by a cliff.</p><p>As U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, TechInsights chip analyst Dan Hutcheson warns that,<b>More bad news to come after Micron's pessimistic forecast.</b></p><p>As the market environment deteriorates, the tide of semiconductor cutting orders also spreads. However, Wall Street News mentioned earlier,<b>Although the high growth of the semiconductor market in the past two years is no longer there, there are still structural opportunities in the whole industry.</b></p><p>At a time when the demand for traditional electronic products is shrinking, the new energy vehicle semiconductor field still has the momentum to continue to grow. Comparing the situation of semiconductor chip factories,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>The inventory turnover days of automotive semiconductor companies are still at a historically low level, which also verifies the structured performance of automotive semiconductor field.</p><p>Tristan Gerra, a senior analyst at Baird Semiconductor, a research firm, also said that big chip suppliers to consumer electronics manufacturers, especially low-end smartphone manufacturers, are basically doomed, while companies that provide chips for automobiles and data centers will continue to perform well.</p><p>But Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon takes a different view on the outlook for automotive chips.<b>He noted that automakers are ordering far more chips than they need and continue to do so. It becomes more real when automakers stop buying.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Virtual Fire is too strong! PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVirtual Fire is too strong! PC demand collapsed, and chips suffered\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-13 11:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Global PC shipments fell 12.6% year-over-year in the second quarter, the biggest decline in nine years. U.S. chip earnings season kicked off later this month, and more bad news is expected following Micron's bearish forecast. The consumption boom of electronic devices since the pandemic is receding, and the chip supply shortage that has lasted for more than two years is turning into a glut.</p><p>Data recently released by information technology research firm Gartner Inc. show that global demand for personal computers fell sharply in the second quarter of this year,<b>Computer makers shipped 72 million units between April and June, down 12.6% from a year earlier and the biggest drop in nine years.</b></p><p>The decline in demand seen since the first quarter accelerated in the second quarter due to ongoing geopolitical instability due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflationary pressures on spending, and a sharp drop in demand for Google's web notebook, the ChromeBook, according to Mikako Kitagawa, head of research at Gartner.</p><p>Global equipment shipments fell about 15.3% year over year in the second quarter, according to International Data Corp., another agency.</p><p>Jitesh Ubrani, research manager at IDC, said recession fears continue to mount, weakening demand in various sectors. However, he also noted that overall shipments remain above pre-pandemic levels despite the recent decline in demand.</p><p><b>Both Gartner and IDC say the world's top three PC suppliers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell</a>Shipments both declined in the second quarter.</b></p><p>U.S. PC demand fell 17.5%, largely due to a 50% drop in ChromeBook shipments, according to Gartner.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b339c8c4c96d2c36de079f3228d4569\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Winter is coming for the chip industry?</b></p><p>Consumption of electronic devices has skyrocketed during the pandemic to accommodate remote work and remote education, as well as the recreational demands of stay-at-home quarantine, but in recent months there have been growing signs that this trend has changed.</p><p>In May, several PC makers, including HP and Dell, warned that consumer demand for PCs was waning, especially for lower-priced products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in June that the outlook for the second half of the year had become \"very chaotic\" and that the company would look to adjust spending and investments to accommodate that reality. In June, Intel temporarily froze hiring in its PC chip division and introduced other austerity measures.</p><p>Late last month, memory chip makers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>Issued guidance for fourth-quarter results well below expectations, reflecting a slowdown in two key markets of computers and smartphones. Although the expression used by Micron executives when describing future demand is \"weakened\", judging from the specific figures, the demand in the chip industry may have declined by a cliff.</p><p>As U.S. chip earnings season kicks off later this month, TechInsights chip analyst Dan Hutcheson warns that,<b>More bad news to come after Micron's pessimistic forecast.</b></p><p>As the market environment deteriorates, the tide of semiconductor cutting orders also spreads. However, Wall Street News mentioned earlier,<b>Although the high growth of the semiconductor market in the past two years is no longer there, there are still structural opportunities in the whole industry.</b></p><p>At a time when the demand for traditional electronic products is shrinking, the new energy vehicle semiconductor field still has the momentum to continue to grow. Comparing the situation of semiconductor chip factories,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NXPI\">NXP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>The inventory turnover days of automotive semiconductor companies are still at a historically low level, which also verifies the structured performance of automotive semiconductor field.</p><p>Tristan Gerra, a senior analyst at Baird Semiconductor, a research firm, also said that big chip suppliers to consumer electronics manufacturers, especially low-end smartphone manufacturers, are basically doomed, while companies that provide chips for automobiles and data centers will continue to perform well.</p><p>But Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon takes a different view on the outlook for automotive chips.<b>He noted that automakers are ordering far more chips than they need and continue to do so. It becomes more real when automakers stop buying.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","PC":"Premium Catering (Holdings) Ltd."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166021735","content_text":"第二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，继美光发布悲观预测后，预计还会有更多坏消息传来。疫情以来的电子设备消费热潮正在消退，持续两年多的芯片供应短缺正转向过剩。信息科技研究公司Gartner Inc.近日公布的数据显示，今年第二季度全球个人电脑需求大幅下降，电脑制造商在4月至6月间的出货量为7200万台，较去年同期下降12.6%，为九年来最大降幅。Gartner 研究主管Mikako Kitagawa表示，由于俄乌冲突导致的持续地缘政治不稳定、支出方面的通胀压力以及对谷歌网络笔记本ChromeBook的需求急剧下降，自第一季度以来出现的需求下降在第二季度加速。另一家机构International Data Corp.的数据显示，第二季度全球设备出货量同比下降了约15.3%。IDC研究经理Jitesh Ubrani表示，对衰退的担忧继续加剧，削弱了各个领域的需求。不过，他也指出，尽管最近需求有所下降，但总体出货量仍高于疫情前水平。Gartner和IDC均表示，全球前三大个人电脑供应商联想集团、惠普和戴尔第二季度的发货量均有所下降。Gartner的数据显示，美国个人电脑需求下降了17.5%，主要原因是ChromeBook出货量下降了50%。芯片业寒冬将至？疫情期间，为了适应远程工作和远程教育，以及宅家隔离的娱乐需求，对电子设备的消费大增，但近几个月来，越来越多迹象显示，这种趋势发生了变化。今年5月，惠普和戴尔等几家个人电脑制造商警告称，消费者对个人电脑的需求正在减弱，尤其是对低价产品的需求。英特尔首席财务官David Zinsner今年6月表示，今年下半年的前景变得“非常混乱”，该公司将寻求调整支出和投资以适应这一现实。今年6月，英特尔暂时冻结了其个人电脑芯片部门的招聘，并采取了其他紧缩措施。上个月底，内存芯片制造商美光科技发布第四季度业绩指引远低于预期，反映出电脑和智能手机两个关键市场的放缓。虽然美光高管在描述未来需求时所用的表述是“有所减弱”，但从具体数字来看，芯片行业的需求或已出现了断崖式下降。随着美国芯片财报季于本月晚些时候拉开帷幕，TechInsights芯片分析师Dan Hutcheson警告称，继美光发布悲观预测后，还会有更多坏消息传来。市场环境恶化，半导体砍单潮也随之蔓延。不过，华尔街见闻此前提及，虽然半导体市场过去两年的高增不再，但整个行业内仍存在结构化的机会。在传统电子产品需求萎缩之际，新能源车用半导体领域仍有继续增长的动力。对比半导体芯片厂的情况，意法半导体、恩智浦、德州仪器等车用半导体公司的存货周转天数仍处于历史低位，这也同样验证了车用半导体领域的结构化表现。研究公司Baird半导体高级分析师Tristan Gerra也表示，消费电子产品制造商，尤其是低端智能手机制造商的芯片大供应商基本上注定“难逃厄运”，而提供汽车和数据中心芯片的公司将继续表现优秀。但Bernstein分析师Stacy Rasgon对汽车芯片的前景持有不同观点。他指出，汽车制造商订购的芯片远远超过了他们的需求，而且还在继续这样做。当汽车制造商停止购买时，情况就会变得更加真实。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"PC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071182273,"gmtCreate":1657501342392,"gmtModify":1676536014330,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071182273","repostId":"2250061276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073865314,"gmtCreate":1657327763138,"gmtModify":1676535991105,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073865314","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy \"lost\" for three decades?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news of the shooting of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot during a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe is still conscious when he gets on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The exchange rate of Japanese yen was also affected. As of 11: 30 on July 8th, the loss of US dollar against Japanese yen widened to 0.47% at 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate when Abe was assassinated? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted by his power during his tenure. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most noteworthy of which is the loose monetary policy, and the exchange rate of the yen began to depreciate at an accelerated rate.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the continuous decline of the Japanese yen exchange rate has become more obvious. On June 13th, the exchange rate of Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen-to-US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the Japanese yen has depreciated sharply by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to fall sharply, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the BOJ must maintain its massive stimulus package to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is questionable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, Japan, as a big importer, has an 88% dependence on foreign energy and a food self-sufficiency rate of only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of sharp easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990.</p><p>People lack some confidence because they have broadened the real estate and prices, but they have not broadened the disposable income of residents. After the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\", \"lost thirty years\", Japan's loss is about to run to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen today is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was hyped as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination that solves Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), active fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three strategies\":</p><p>First, the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history was proposed, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen from Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, breaking through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment and foster innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address the continuing downturn in Japan's economy since the 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of Global Macro Speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians break stereotypes and use a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to improve Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" performed bleakly from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomics' goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rate and stock price, etc. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not well advanced.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japan Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to everyone, but there are also serious problems. The most serious of these is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asian Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. However, if we look at it as a whole, the Japanese economy is an upward posture. For example, Japan's wages have increased and the profits of large enterprises have increased well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>'Lost' began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than a decade before the burst of the bubble that left Japan unable to recover, Japan had been a \"country of miracles\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile began to accumulate capital, and then later, with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment and introduced advanced foreign technologies, and quickly rebuilt the national industrial system from the postwar ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games had become an important symbol connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel in large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TV at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries had flourished, and Japan had experienced a complete development stage from \"exchanging shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japanese steel exports to the United States accounted for half of all U.S. imports, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobile, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals fully dominated the U.S. market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba joined forces.</p><p>In the successive trade deficit of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Beaten up by Japanese goods, the United States has launched a trade war that now looks familiar to Chinese people.</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese cars sold worldwide began to be heavily taxed by the United States and restricted on export quotas.</p><p>At the same time, the United States has imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds that Japan has \"dumping behavior\". Japanese semiconductors are subject to a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips are subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\", and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\", stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was required to increase imports of American agricultural products, cancel trade terms that were unfavorable to foreign enterprises, and let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textile, steel, television and machine tool industries, while transferring factories and upgrading industries...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, using the \"Super 301\" clause-blatantly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reform.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", which negotiated economic policies, institutions and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>As of 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had launched a total of 24 Section 301 investigations into Japan, almost all of which had been conceded by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Agreement\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharply appreciated yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. The production cost has risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest in factories at low cost.</p><p>In fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of Japanese yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market began to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strong\" sharp appreciation of the yen after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In the past four years, the Nikkei 225 index has risen by 197.45%, and the total stock market value has continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The streets of Japan in the 80s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Japanese emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; Even if a 10,000 yen note is thrown on the ground in the Ginza area, you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese became the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping watch stores, jewelry stores and wine wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies were weak in counting money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of stock index short-selling options, which completely deviate from economic reality, it erupts when the bubble expands to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plunged 63.24%, creating the biggest decline in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the property market plunged 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession made countless ordinary people who had no time to get out \"trapped\" by various capital investment targets, and an economic reshuffle made the wealth of the whole society transfer to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has begun to be in a long-term downturn.</p><p>The Nikkei Average dropped by more than 82% from an all-time high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. The Nikkei Average still hovered around 10,000 points for the next four years.</p><p>That is, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japan's economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, because the Japanese economy is still not improving, the media began to raise the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic decline. Since the highest closing point of the Nikkei 225 index in history at 38957, it has gone down all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it didn't stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points short of its peak.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which allowed the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of the Great Depression triggered by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>But the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not unanimous in the analysis of the Great Depression. Toyo Yokuten, the former deputy minister of the Ministry of Treasury of Japan, even personally came forward to refute this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion dollars to more than 3 trillion dollars, which is the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"- -</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, it is a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese enterprises have to look overseas, which makes Japanese enterprises' capital outflow rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow-the strong yen facilitates Japanese companies to invest in overseas companies, and at the same time, building factories abroad can bypass US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese enterprises carried out a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought the Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion-including the Spider-Man copyright that Marvel has not recovered now;</p><p>The Japanese even have the ambition to buy the United States as \"the 41st prefecture of Japan\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the property here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some Japanese believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead the people to \"end the American era,\" wrote Kanji Ito, a Japanese scholar in \"Across the Pacific Fury.\"</p><p>It is just that these properties belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they alone do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal entities has increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 was only $39,000, an increase of only 4% compared with 1990.</p><p><b>Income unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, investment activity in Japan came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories close down, mortgage disaster, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharp rise in production costs has caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst is that ordinary people are laid off in the tide of bankruptcy, their lifelong savings are volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to carry heavy mortgage loans.</p><p>After the collapse of lifelong employment system and annual merit sequence, they worked overtime desperately in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it was solidified after that-accepting the squeeze of competition and production efficiency has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>But the flood of social development has propelled the Japanese forward, but it has failed to give them the reward they deserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare released the \"Hardworking Statistics Survey\", which showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% and the largest decline in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990. At that time, the average annual income of Japanese was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top 10 for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began falling into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, the population of the elderly aged 65 and over in Japan reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Low births and aging leads to a serious labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth in Japan, which in turn leads to a sustained slowdown in economic growth:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rate of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity basically changed synchronously with the economic trend. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%, and the average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the working population and the continuous reduction of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions are expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of personal annual income, which became a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and health care) fell from first in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation to struggle due to the expected decline in income, resulting in the \"hibernation\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan, hibernate people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hibernate people aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to greatly increase the total consumption, and Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan dropped from the \"5 prefix\" with a total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars, but it is still an economic power that is proud of Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world, and it seems not bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached $5.55 trillion in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with its past glory, Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed today.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also leading the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio of various countries was 286.2% in the United States and 284.3% in the euro zone, while it was 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge scale of the debt comes from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial field.</p><p>In 1998, the central bank of the Bank of Japan began to implement the zero interest rate and quantitative easing policy for the first time, that is, the regulation of economic activity through control of the supply of currency.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been going down all the way, and the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the stocks held by the Bank of Japan will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs and more than 5% of the total market value of Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke the 30,000 point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a bubble boom in a mirror, because the huge amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither driven up inflation nor economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are stagnant. The markets of automobile, shipbuilding, machine tools and electronic industries are all being divided by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and few achievements have been made in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, there are only 6 unicorn companies in Japan, which are significantly behind the 554, 180, 64, 43 and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, Britain and Germany, and their valuations are all less than $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt expanded sharply. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, comprising Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese nationals was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when the central banks of the United States, Britain and Europe have all begun to tighten, the Bank of Japan has still not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the Market\" Loose, Unlimited Money Printing, Japanese Yen Falling Streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Fed's rate hike landed in March and released the signal that it would increase the magnitude of rate hike and accelerate the shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining the quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch the \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase unlimited public bonds from private financial institutions at the designated interest rate.</p><p>On the same day, the Japanese yen exchange rate plunged by 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced the unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is conducive to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially at the moment when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten its monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is not stable. Since the Abe administration took office and launched the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only 2016 and 2017 maintained a trade surplus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, the global price of crude oil and raw materials has soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the cost of Japanese enterprises and broadened the channels of imported inflation. At the same time, according to the data of \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have become increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only benefit is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, the yield of U.S. bonds continues to soar, and the spread between the U.S. and Japan in Treasury Bond has become wider and wider. Therefore, local speculators began to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale and borrow Japanese yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about the common people?</p><p>The rise of prices has led to the rise of the cost of living and the weakening of consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which is considered \"conducive to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has made it impossible for the Japanese economy to escape from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, Yasushi Mie, then governor of the central bank, warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, greatly raised lending rates, and took the initiative to burst the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\" by later generations.</p><p>It's just that the front car has been overturned, and the latter is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy \"lost\" for three decades?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy \"lost\" for three decades?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news of the shooting of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot during a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe is still conscious when he gets on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The exchange rate of Japanese yen was also affected. As of 11: 30 on July 8th, the loss of US dollar against Japanese yen widened to 0.47% at 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate when Abe was assassinated? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted by his power during his tenure. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most noteworthy of which is the loose monetary policy, and the exchange rate of the yen began to depreciate at an accelerated rate.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the continuous decline of the Japanese yen exchange rate has become more obvious. On June 13th, the exchange rate of Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen-to-US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the Japanese yen has depreciated sharply by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to fall sharply, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the BOJ must maintain its massive stimulus package to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is questionable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, Japan, as a big importer, has an 88% dependence on foreign energy and a food self-sufficiency rate of only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of sharp easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990.</p><p>People lack some confidence because they have broadened the real estate and prices, but they have not broadened the disposable income of residents. After the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\", \"lost thirty years\", Japan's loss is about to run to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen today is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and immediately threw out the route of \"fighting for the economy\", which was hyped as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination that solves Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), active fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three strategies\":</p><p>First, the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history was proposed, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen from Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, breaking through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment and foster innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address the continuing downturn in Japan's economy since the 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of Global Macro Speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians break stereotypes and use a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to improve Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" performed bleakly from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomics' goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rate and stock price, etc. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not well advanced.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japan Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to everyone, but there are also serious problems. The most serious of these is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asian Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. However, if we look at it as a whole, the Japanese economy is an upward posture. For example, Japan's wages have increased and the profits of large enterprises have increased well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>'Lost' began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than a decade before the burst of the bubble that left Japan unable to recover, Japan had been a \"country of miracles\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile began to accumulate capital, and then later, with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment and introduced advanced foreign technologies, and quickly rebuilt the national industrial system from the postwar ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games had become an important symbol connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel in large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TV at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries had flourished, and Japan had experienced a complete development stage from \"exchanging shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japanese steel exports to the United States accounted for half of all U.S. imports, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobile, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals fully dominated the U.S. market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba joined forces.</p><p>In the successive trade deficit of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Beaten up by Japanese goods, the United States has launched a trade war that now looks familiar to Chinese people.</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese cars sold worldwide began to be heavily taxed by the United States and restricted on export quotas.</p><p>At the same time, the United States has imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds that Japan has \"dumping behavior\". Japanese semiconductors are subject to a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips are subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\", and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\", stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was required to increase imports of American agricultural products, cancel trade terms that were unfavorable to foreign enterprises, and let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textile, steel, television and machine tool industries, while transferring factories and upgrading industries...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, using the \"Super 301\" clause-blatantly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reform.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", which negotiated economic policies, institutions and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>As of 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had launched a total of 24 Section 301 investigations into Japan, almost all of which had been conceded by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Agreement\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharply appreciated yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. The production cost has risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest in factories at low cost.</p><p>In fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of Japanese yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market began to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strong\" sharp appreciation of the yen after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In the past four years, the Nikkei 225 index has risen by 197.45%, and the total stock market value has continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The streets of Japan in the 80s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Japanese emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; Even if a 10,000 yen note is thrown on the ground in the Ginza area, you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese became the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping watch stores, jewelry stores and wine wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies were weak in counting money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of stock index short-selling options, which completely deviate from economic reality, it erupts when the bubble expands to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plunged 63.24%, creating the biggest decline in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the property market plunged 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession made countless ordinary people who had no time to get out \"trapped\" by various capital investment targets, and an economic reshuffle made the wealth of the whole society transfer to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has begun to be in a long-term downturn.</p><p>The Nikkei Average dropped by more than 82% from an all-time high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. The Nikkei Average still hovered around 10,000 points for the next four years.</p><p>That is, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japan's economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, because the Japanese economy is still not improving, the media began to raise the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic decline. Since the highest closing point of the Nikkei 225 index in history at 38957, it has gone down all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it didn't stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points short of its peak.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which allowed the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of the Great Depression triggered by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>But the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not unanimous in the analysis of the Great Depression. Toyo Yokuten, the former deputy minister of the Ministry of Treasury of Japan, even personally came forward to refute this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion dollars to more than 3 trillion dollars, which is the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"- -</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, it is a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese enterprises have to look overseas, which makes Japanese enterprises' capital outflow rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow-the strong yen facilitates Japanese companies to invest in overseas companies, and at the same time, building factories abroad can bypass US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese enterprises carried out a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought the Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion-including the Spider-Man copyright that Marvel has not recovered now;</p><p>The Japanese even have the ambition to buy the United States as \"the 41st prefecture of Japan\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the property here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some Japanese believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead the people to \"end the American era,\" wrote Kanji Ito, a Japanese scholar in \"Across the Pacific Fury.\"</p><p>It is just that these properties belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they alone do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal entities has increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 was only $39,000, an increase of only 4% compared with 1990.</p><p><b>Income unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, investment activity in Japan came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories close down, mortgage disaster, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharp rise in production costs has caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst is that ordinary people are laid off in the tide of bankruptcy, their lifelong savings are volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to carry heavy mortgage loans.</p><p>After the collapse of lifelong employment system and annual merit sequence, they worked overtime desperately in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it was solidified after that-accepting the squeeze of competition and production efficiency has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>But the flood of social development has propelled the Japanese forward, but it has failed to give them the reward they deserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare released the \"Hardworking Statistics Survey\", which showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% and the largest decline in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990. At that time, the average annual income of Japanese was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top 10 for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began falling into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, the population of the elderly aged 65 and over in Japan reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Low births and aging leads to a serious labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth in Japan, which in turn leads to a sustained slowdown in economic growth:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rate of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity basically changed synchronously with the economic trend. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%, and the average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the working population and the continuous reduction of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions are expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of personal annual income, which became a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and health care) fell from first in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation to struggle due to the expected decline in income, resulting in the \"hibernation\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan, hibernate people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hibernate people aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to greatly increase the total consumption, and Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan dropped from the \"5 prefix\" with a total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars, but it is still an economic power that is proud of Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world, and it seems not bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached $5.55 trillion in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with its past glory, Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed today.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also leading the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio of various countries was 286.2% in the United States and 284.3% in the euro zone, while it was 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge scale of the debt comes from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial field.</p><p>In 1998, the central bank of the Bank of Japan began to implement the zero interest rate and quantitative easing policy for the first time, that is, the regulation of economic activity through control of the supply of currency.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been going down all the way, and the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the stocks held by the Bank of Japan will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs and more than 5% of the total market value of Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke the 30,000 point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a bubble boom in a mirror, because the huge amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither driven up inflation nor economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are stagnant. The markets of automobile, shipbuilding, machine tools and electronic industries are all being divided by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and few achievements have been made in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, there are only 6 unicorn companies in Japan, which are significantly behind the 554, 180, 64, 43 and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, Britain and Germany, and their valuations are all less than $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt expanded sharply. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, comprising Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese nationals was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when the central banks of the United States, Britain and Europe have all begun to tighten, the Bank of Japan has still not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the Market\" Loose, Unlimited Money Printing, Japanese Yen Falling Streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Fed's rate hike landed in March and released the signal that it would increase the magnitude of rate hike and accelerate the shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining the quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch the \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase unlimited public bonds from private financial institutions at the designated interest rate.</p><p>On the same day, the Japanese yen exchange rate plunged by 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced the unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is conducive to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially at the moment when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten its monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is not stable. Since the Abe administration took office and launched the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only 2016 and 2017 maintained a trade surplus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, the global price of crude oil and raw materials has soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the cost of Japanese enterprises and broadened the channels of imported inflation. At the same time, according to the data of \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have become increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only benefit is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, the yield of U.S. bonds continues to soar, and the spread between the U.S. and Japan in Treasury Bond has become wider and wider. Therefore, local speculators began to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale and borrow Japanese yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about the common people?</p><p>The rise of prices has led to the rise of the cost of living and the weakening of consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which is considered \"conducive to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has made it impossible for the Japanese economy to escape from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, Yasushi Mie, then governor of the central bank, warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, greatly raised lending rates, and took the initiative to burst the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\" by later generations.</p><p>It's just that the front car has been overturned, and the latter is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日，日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道，当地时间8日，日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉，安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识，目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响，截至7月8日11：30，美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%，报135.37，日元有所升值。安倍遇刺，日元为何会突然升值？或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策，最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策，日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来，日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日，日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口，创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内，日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌，让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点，即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人，脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷，毕竟日本作为一个进口大国，能源对外依存度高达88%，粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升，将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年，可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来，日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价，独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入，人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后，日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年，日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢？安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相，但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底，安倍晋三再次担任日本首相，随即抛出“拼经济”路线，被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”，是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”：其一，提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松（QE）货币政策，央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元；其二，突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策；其三，囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》（TPP）、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢？全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出，安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验，日本金融家和政治家打破成见，用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率，克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年，获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出，“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现，尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等，但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳，证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为，安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹，但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难，这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为，若仅从日本GDP来看，会有所误解，认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看，日本经济是一个向上的姿态，例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错，所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出，则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年，日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本，再到后来以制造业为核心产业，积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术，从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年，东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志，由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求，日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展，日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年，日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半，1968年，日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时，日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命，汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场，日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中，产业巨头们一片连年亏损，英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下，美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始，行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税，并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时，美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税，日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外，日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕，日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权，并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制，同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时，美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法，启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策，迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判，就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商，促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革：例如把住房作为战略性产业，进一步开放流通体制；进一步开放国内市场，按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年，美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查，几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时，由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”，日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后，日元升值到120日元/美元，1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击，生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外，为了应对汇率危机，日本政府开始大幅降息，寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上，由于实业回报周期过长，低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济，货币市场的充裕流动性，随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始，日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”，1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点， 1989年末收于38916点，四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%，并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元，占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升，日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价；银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上，也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时，日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国，他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄，外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后，是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月，日本长达5年的牛市结束，股市暴跌63.24%，创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年，楼市暴跌65%，破产企业层出不穷，失业人群人数激增，整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时，短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”，一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后，日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957，到2008年10月29日最低6994.9，累积跌幅逾82%，其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始，日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端，并至今难题未解。三十年里，日本具体失去了什么？2010年，由于日本经济仍无起色，媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上，“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起，此后一路下行，期间多次跌至1万点一下，直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘，日经225指数收盘报26490.53点，距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”，被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中，对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年，借强势日元下的海外投资，日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元，也就是所谓的“日本之外，还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时，是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力，大量日企不得不将目光投向海外，这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业，同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年，日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年，三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权；日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”，为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京？因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到，一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\"，政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产，属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商，但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道，日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%，而按照OECD的统计数据，日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元，比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后，日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾，充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组；剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭，最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后，为了保住工作而拼命加班，“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机，但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨，成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进，却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月，日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示，日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元，约合1.96万元人民币，同比减少1.2%，创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右，当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元，以当时的汇率计算，月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入，成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年，日本总人口居世界11位，是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年，日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%，在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时，日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万，在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化，导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓，进而使经济增速持续放缓：“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值，实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位；1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长，实际GDP增速也降至4.4%；1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%，实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降，税收不断减少的情况下，需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大，自1990年起，依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革，每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收，到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%，成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名（测量人均GDP，教育，以及医疗），则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时，日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气，由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义，蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门，几乎和外界断绝联系的人群，根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据，15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人，年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望，使得总消费难以大幅提升，日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE，却始终乏力2021年，日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”，但依旧是傲视欧洲，名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国，看起来似乎并不差。但实际上，日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元，当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%，2021年，这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比，如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时，日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行（BIS）最新数据显示，2021 年二季度末，各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%，而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松，是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年，日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策，即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年，日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始，日元兑美元持续贬值，出口实现了较大幅度增长；同时日本基准利率一路下行，十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金)，年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元，到2021年，日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上，占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近，一路走强，在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关，但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣，因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率，也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上，日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势，其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分，新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家，大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家，且估值均小于20亿美元。同时，日本的债务急剧扩张，截至2021年12月底，由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元，日本国民人均负债约为971万日元，约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下，日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地，并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后，英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策，但日本央行却反其道而行之，坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日，日本央行发布新闻稿宣布，将在3月 29-31 日间，发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施，即以指定的利率，无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天，日元汇率重挫1.38％。4月20日，不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债，以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限，再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为，由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济，日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段，尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下，日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗？实际上，日本贸易结构并不稳定，自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后，出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降，仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升，日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本，拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时，根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示，日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94％降至2018年的83％，降低了11％，日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的，是日本本土的投机者们，随着美联储大幅落地，美债收益率持续飙涨，美日国债利差已经越来越大，于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元，借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢？物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱，“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值，多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长，反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前，时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府：一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存，否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策，大幅度提高了贷款利率，主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条，却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆，后未知更。三十年过去，日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079377928,"gmtCreate":1657154819264,"gmtModify":1676535959965,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079377928","repostId":"2249822546","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2249822546","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657143383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2249822546?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 05:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Deutsche Bank expects a full-scale recession in the United States next year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249822546","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的美联储周三公布了6月份联邦公开市场委员会货币政策会议的纪要文件。会议纪要显示，美联储多数官员认为经济增长风险偏向下行。如果通胀未能降温，美联储可能会采取“更具限制性”的政策。市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票市场预测专家Dennis Gartman警告称，在当前的熊市购买股票“是愚蠢的事”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Forecasting a technical recession in the US Q2 or a full-scale recession next year</b><b>2. Federal Reserve meeting minutes: If inflation fails to cool down, \"more restrictive\" policies may be appropriate</b><b>3. The United States and allies discuss limiting the selling price of Russian crude oil to $40-60</b><b>4. Market forecaster Gartman: It is recommended to sell stocks on rallies in the second half of the year</b><b>5. European Parliament votes for 'green label' on gas and nuclear</b><b>6. Bank of England officials hinted at a faster pace of rate hike to avoid more stubborn inflation</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>Forecasting a technical recession in the US Q2 or a full-scale recession next year</b></p><p>Deutsche Bank said the likelihood of weakness in parts of the U.S. economy spilling over to the still-robust labor market and services sector is rising, leaving people unemployed and making it tougher for the Federal Reserve to fight inflation.</p><p>Economists at Deutsche Bank now expect U.S. GDP to shrink at an annual rate of 0.6% in the second quarter, which would mean a second consecutive quarter of economic contraction, sending the U.S. economy into a technical recession. They still expect the economy to grow for the full year, by 0.6%, with the economy plunging into a full-blown recession by mid-2023.</p><p>The bank said the measure used to calculate quarterly GDP-final sales to domestic buyers-will increase by slightly more than 1% in the second and third quarters of this year.</p><p>\"Although this does not mean a recession is near, historically, there have not been many instances where final sales growth has declined so much without the economy falling into a recession,\" the bank's economists wrote in a research note.</p><p>Wall Street analysts have slashed their 2022 GDP growth forecasts in recent weeks and warned of the risk of a downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ee21463ab7bb30d85cd34a4908cb05\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Fed minutes: 'More restrictive' policy may be appropriate if inflation fails to cool</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released minutes documents from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. At the meeting, Fed officials stressed the need to fight inflation, even if it means slowing an economy already on the brink of recession.</p><p>According to the minutes of the meeting, most officials of the Federal Reserve believe that economic growth risks are biased downward. If inflation fails to cool, the Fed could adopt a \"more restrictive\" policy.</p><p>According to the minutes, \"Participants agreed that the economic outlook needs to shift to a restrictive policy stance. They recognized that if inflationary pressures continue to rise, a stricter policy stance may be appropriate.\"</p><p>Officials are \"highly concerned\" about inflation risks and it could take some time to bring inflation down to 2%, the minutes show. Many officials are concerned that long-term price expectations may rise. Officials also acknowledged that policy tightening could come at a cost.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/942b2c756fe3e8eb4cfa16e5ce33a69e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S., allies explore capping Russian crude at $40-$60</b></p><p>The U.S. and its allies have discussed efforts to limit the selling price of Russian crude oil to around $40 to $60 a barrel, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Discussions began before the G7 summit, with allies exploring several ways to limit Russian oil revenues while minimizing the impact on their own economies. At a summit in Germany on June 28, leaders agreed to examine options for limiting oil prices, such as banning insurance and transportation services needed to transport Russian crude oil and petroleum products unless selling prices are below their prescribed levels.</p><p>The range is what allies consider Russia's marginal production costs to oil prices before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, people familiar with the matter said. The Biden administration believes the $40 cap is too low, two people familiar with the matter said. The allies are aiming to cut Moscow's revenue available for military operations, but the risk is that oil prices will soar if measures are not implemented.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaad15723e2663bfd5740ece004a70f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Market Forecaster Gartman: Suggested to sell stocks on rallies in the second half of the year</b></p><p>Market forecaster Dennis Gartman warns that buying stocks in the current bear market is \"a foolish thing to do\".</p><p>\"Stock market gains are meant to sell on rallies, not to buy,\" the chairman of the University of Akron endowment said Tuesday. \"In another three, four, five or six months, that could change. The average duration of a bear market tends to be close to a year. How much more the stock market can fall is a guess.\"</p><p>Gartman, who published The influential \"The Gartman Letter,\" has been bearish on stocks for months. In January, he said the stock market could face as much as a 15% decline in 2022, and he cut the weight of stocks in college funds by 12%-15% on Dec. 31. The S&P 500 is down 20% this year, meeting the traditional definition of a bear market.</p><p>Gartman said that after the Fed's three rate hike this year, it plans to \"further raise the overnight lending rate by 75-125 basis points\", which will plunge the US economy into recession, even if the severe inflation that drove its tightening policy begins to slow down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d2e00649913baabbb7bc871a0b7110b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>European Parliament votes for 'green label' on gas and nuclear</b></p><p>The European Parliament issued a statement on the 6th, saying that after a vote, the European Parliament supports the relevant bill proposed by the European Commission to include natural gas and nuclear energy projects that meet certain conditions in the category of sustainable economic activities covered by an EU classification regulation to deal with climate change.</p><p>If the EU Council does not raise objections by July 11, the bill will officially enter into force on January 1, 2023.</p><p>This EU classification regulation sets standards for sustainable economic activities for reference by member countries in investment, taxation, management and so on. The European Commission adopted a supplementary delegated act to the regulation in February this year, classifying gas and nuclear energy projects that meet certain conditions as sustainable economic activities and setting out technical screening and emission criteria for the respective projects. The bill stipulates that nuclear energy projects need to meet nuclear and environmental safety requirements, while natural gas should help accelerate the transition from coal to renewable energy without affecting investment in renewable energy.</p><p>The bill is widely controversial. Environmental groups and some EU member states have criticized it for \"greenwashing\" fossil and nuclear energy investments, damaging the EU's credibility in tackling climate change. Proponents, for their part, argue that refusing to put a \"green label\" on natural gas and nuclear power will cause energy prices to rise further and make it harder for people to wean themselves off fossil energy sources such as coal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e514a880eb42ac33be981ada47675e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bank of England officials hinted at a faster rate hike to avoid more stubborn inflation</b></p><p>Two senior Bank of England officials said they were prepared to rate hike at a faster pace if necessary to prevent inflation from becoming more stubborn; It further shows that the Bank of England may rate hike 50 basis points as soon as next month.</p><p>Chief economist Huw Pill said the central bank's latest guidance showed a willingness to speed up the rate hike cycle if necessary. Hours earlier, Bank of England deputy governor Jon Cunliffe said the central bank \"will take all necessary steps\" to prevent inflation from persisting, promising officials \"will act and we will act forcefully\".</p><p>Speaking in London, Pill said the Bank of England's June pledge to take \"robust action\" on the continuation of inflation \"both reflects my willingness to tighten faster than the current tightening cycle has executed so far, while also emphasizing that any change in the pace of action depends on new data and analysis.\"</p><p>\"We still have a lot of issues to resolve before we vote on policy decisions in August. How I vote then will be determined by the data we see and my interpretation,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Deutsche Bank expects a full-scale recession in the United States next year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Deutsche Bank expects a full-scale recession in the United States next year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-07 05:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Forecasting a technical recession in the US Q2 or a full-scale recession next year</b><b>2. Federal Reserve meeting minutes: If inflation fails to cool down, \"more restrictive\" policies may be appropriate</b><b>3. The United States and allies discuss limiting the selling price of Russian crude oil to $40-60</b><b>4. Market forecaster Gartman: It is recommended to sell stocks on rallies in the second half of the year</b><b>5. European Parliament votes for 'green label' on gas and nuclear</b><b>6. Bank of England officials hinted at a faster pace of rate hike to avoid more stubborn inflation</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>Forecasting a technical recession in the US Q2 or a full-scale recession next year</b></p><p>Deutsche Bank said the likelihood of weakness in parts of the U.S. economy spilling over to the still-robust labor market and services sector is rising, leaving people unemployed and making it tougher for the Federal Reserve to fight inflation.</p><p>Economists at Deutsche Bank now expect U.S. GDP to shrink at an annual rate of 0.6% in the second quarter, which would mean a second consecutive quarter of economic contraction, sending the U.S. economy into a technical recession. They still expect the economy to grow for the full year, by 0.6%, with the economy plunging into a full-blown recession by mid-2023.</p><p>The bank said the measure used to calculate quarterly GDP-final sales to domestic buyers-will increase by slightly more than 1% in the second and third quarters of this year.</p><p>\"Although this does not mean a recession is near, historically, there have not been many instances where final sales growth has declined so much without the economy falling into a recession,\" the bank's economists wrote in a research note.</p><p>Wall Street analysts have slashed their 2022 GDP growth forecasts in recent weeks and warned of the risk of a downturn.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ee21463ab7bb30d85cd34a4908cb05\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Fed minutes: 'More restrictive' policy may be appropriate if inflation fails to cool</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released minutes documents from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. At the meeting, Fed officials stressed the need to fight inflation, even if it means slowing an economy already on the brink of recession.</p><p>According to the minutes of the meeting, most officials of the Federal Reserve believe that economic growth risks are biased downward. If inflation fails to cool, the Fed could adopt a \"more restrictive\" policy.</p><p>According to the minutes, \"Participants agreed that the economic outlook needs to shift to a restrictive policy stance. They recognized that if inflationary pressures continue to rise, a stricter policy stance may be appropriate.\"</p><p>Officials are \"highly concerned\" about inflation risks and it could take some time to bring inflation down to 2%, the minutes show. Many officials are concerned that long-term price expectations may rise. Officials also acknowledged that policy tightening could come at a cost.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/942b2c756fe3e8eb4cfa16e5ce33a69e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S., allies explore capping Russian crude at $40-$60</b></p><p>The U.S. and its allies have discussed efforts to limit the selling price of Russian crude oil to around $40 to $60 a barrel, according to people familiar with the matter.</p><p>Discussions began before the G7 summit, with allies exploring several ways to limit Russian oil revenues while minimizing the impact on their own economies. At a summit in Germany on June 28, leaders agreed to examine options for limiting oil prices, such as banning insurance and transportation services needed to transport Russian crude oil and petroleum products unless selling prices are below their prescribed levels.</p><p>The range is what allies consider Russia's marginal production costs to oil prices before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, people familiar with the matter said. The Biden administration believes the $40 cap is too low, two people familiar with the matter said. The allies are aiming to cut Moscow's revenue available for military operations, but the risk is that oil prices will soar if measures are not implemented.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6eaad15723e2663bfd5740ece004a70f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Market Forecaster Gartman: Suggested to sell stocks on rallies in the second half of the year</b></p><p>Market forecaster Dennis Gartman warns that buying stocks in the current bear market is \"a foolish thing to do\".</p><p>\"Stock market gains are meant to sell on rallies, not to buy,\" the chairman of the University of Akron endowment said Tuesday. \"In another three, four, five or six months, that could change. The average duration of a bear market tends to be close to a year. How much more the stock market can fall is a guess.\"</p><p>Gartman, who published The influential \"The Gartman Letter,\" has been bearish on stocks for months. In January, he said the stock market could face as much as a 15% decline in 2022, and he cut the weight of stocks in college funds by 12%-15% on Dec. 31. The S&P 500 is down 20% this year, meeting the traditional definition of a bear market.</p><p>Gartman said that after the Fed's three rate hike this year, it plans to \"further raise the overnight lending rate by 75-125 basis points\", which will plunge the US economy into recession, even if the severe inflation that drove its tightening policy begins to slow down.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d2e00649913baabbb7bc871a0b7110b\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>European Parliament votes for 'green label' on gas and nuclear</b></p><p>The European Parliament issued a statement on the 6th, saying that after a vote, the European Parliament supports the relevant bill proposed by the European Commission to include natural gas and nuclear energy projects that meet certain conditions in the category of sustainable economic activities covered by an EU classification regulation to deal with climate change.</p><p>If the EU Council does not raise objections by July 11, the bill will officially enter into force on January 1, 2023.</p><p>This EU classification regulation sets standards for sustainable economic activities for reference by member countries in investment, taxation, management and so on. The European Commission adopted a supplementary delegated act to the regulation in February this year, classifying gas and nuclear energy projects that meet certain conditions as sustainable economic activities and setting out technical screening and emission criteria for the respective projects. The bill stipulates that nuclear energy projects need to meet nuclear and environmental safety requirements, while natural gas should help accelerate the transition from coal to renewable energy without affecting investment in renewable energy.</p><p>The bill is widely controversial. Environmental groups and some EU member states have criticized it for \"greenwashing\" fossil and nuclear energy investments, damaging the EU's credibility in tackling climate change. Proponents, for their part, argue that refusing to put a \"green label\" on natural gas and nuclear power will cause energy prices to rise further and make it harder for people to wean themselves off fossil energy sources such as coal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e514a880eb42ac33be981ada47675e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bank of England officials hinted at a faster rate hike to avoid more stubborn inflation</b></p><p>Two senior Bank of England officials said they were prepared to rate hike at a faster pace if necessary to prevent inflation from becoming more stubborn; It further shows that the Bank of England may rate hike 50 basis points as soon as next month.</p><p>Chief economist Huw Pill said the central bank's latest guidance showed a willingness to speed up the rate hike cycle if necessary. Hours earlier, Bank of England deputy governor Jon Cunliffe said the central bank \"will take all necessary steps\" to prevent inflation from persisting, promising officials \"will act and we will act forcefully\".</p><p>Speaking in London, Pill said the Bank of England's June pledge to take \"robust action\" on the continuation of inflation \"both reflects my willingness to tighten faster than the current tightening cycle has executed so far, while also emphasizing that any change in the pace of action depends on new data and analysis.\"</p><p>\"We still have a lot of issues to resolve before we vote on policy decisions in August. How I vote then will be determined by the data we see and my interpretation,\" he said.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-07/doc-imizmscv0406117.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a3d2181796ca2050515544f80928f0d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-07/doc-imizmscv0406117.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249822546","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 1、德意志银行预测美国Q2陷入技术性衰退 明年或出现全面衰退2、美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的 3、美国和盟友探讨将俄罗斯原油售价限制在40-60美元 4、市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票 5、欧洲议会投票支持给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”6、英国央行官员暗示或将以更快步伐加息以免通胀更加顽固德意志银行预测美国Q2陷入技术性衰退 明年或出现全面衰退德意志银行表示，美国经济部分领域的弱点蔓延到仍然强劲的劳动力市场和服务业的可能性正在上升，这将造成人员失业，令美联储对抗通胀更加艰难。德意志银行的经济学家现在预计，第二季度美国GDP折合年率萎缩0.6%，这将意味着连续第二个季度经济萎缩，从而使美国经济陷入技术性衰退。他们仍然预计全年经济将实现增长，增幅0.6%，到2023年中期经济将陷入全面衰退。该行表示，用于计算季度GDP的指标--面向国内购买者的最终销售--在今年二、三季度增幅将略微超过1%。“尽管这并不意味着经济衰退近在眼前，但历史上，最终销售增速下降如此之大、而经济又不陷入衰退的情况并不多，”该行经济学家在一份研究报告中写道。华尔街分析师近几周来纷纷下调2022年GDP增幅预测，并对经济下滑风险发出警告。美联储会议纪要：若通胀未能降温 “更具限制性”的政策可能是合适的美联储周三公布了6月份联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议的纪要文件。美联储官员们在会议上强调了对抗通胀的必要性，即便这意味着会让已经处于衰退边缘的经济放缓。会议纪要显示，美联储多数官员认为经济增长风险偏向下行。如果通胀未能降温，美联储可能会采取“更具限制性”的政策。纪要称，“与会者们一致认为，经济前景需要转向限制性政策立场。他们认识到，如果通胀压力持续升高，采取更加严格的政策立场可能是合适的。”纪要显示，官员们“高度关注”通胀风险，可能需要一段时间才能将通胀率降至2%。许多官员担忧长期价格预期可能会上升。官员们还承认，政策收紧可能会付出代价。美国和盟友探讨将俄罗斯原油售价限制在40-60美元据知情人士透露，美国及其盟国已经讨论过努力将俄罗斯原油的售价限制在每桶40美元至60美元左右。相关讨论在七国集团峰会前就开始，盟国在探索限制俄罗斯石油收入、同时最大限度减少对自身经济冲击的数种途径。在6月28日于德国举行的峰会上，各国领导人同意研究限制油价的各选项，如禁止运输俄罗斯原油和石油产品所需的保险及运输服务，除非售价低于其规定的水平。知情人士称，该区间是盟国所认为的俄罗斯边际生产成本到俄乌冲突发生之前的油价。两位知情人士表示，拜登政府认为40美元的上限过低。盟国的目的是削减莫斯科可用于军事行动的收入，但风险在于，若措施执行不力油价会飙升。市场预测专家Gartman：建议下半年逢高抛售股票市场预测专家Dennis Gartman警告称，在当前的熊市购买股票“是愚蠢的事”。“股市上涨是用来逢高抛售的，不是用来买进的，”这位阿克伦大学捐赠基金的主席周二表示。“再过三、四、五或六个月，这样的情况可能会改变。熊市的平均期限往往接近一年。股市还能下跌多少就只能猜了。”Gartman曾发布颇具影响力的“The Gartman Letter”，他看空股市已有数月。1月份，他说股市在2022年可能面临多达15%的跌幅，他在12月31日将大学基金中股票的比重下调了12%-15%。标普500指数今年以来下跌了20%，满足传统上的熊市定义。Gartman表示，美联储今年加息三次以后，计划将隔夜贷款利率“进一步上调75-125个基点”，会令美国经济陷入衰退，即便推动其收紧政策的严重通胀开始放缓。欧洲议会投票支持给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”欧洲议会6日发表声明说，经过投票，欧洲议会支持欧盟委员会提出的相关法案，把满足特定条件的天然气和核能项目列入欧盟一项应对气候变化的分类条例所涵盖的可持续经济活动类别。如果欧盟理事会在7月11日前不提出异议，该法案将于2023年1月1日正式生效。欧盟这项分类条例为可持续经济活动设立标准，供各成员国在投资、税收、管理等方面参考。欧盟委员会今年2月通过了该条例的补充授权法案，将满足特定条件的天然气和核能项目归为可持续经济活动，并规定了相应项目的技术筛选和排放标准。法案规定，核能项目需要满足核安全和环境安全要求，天然气则要有助于加速从煤炭向可再生能源的过渡，同时不会影响对可再生能源的投资。该法案广受争议。环保组织和一些欧盟成员国批评其“漂绿”化石能源和核能投资，损害欧盟在应对气候变化方面的信誉。支持者则认为，拒绝给天然气和核能贴上“绿色标签”，将导致能源价格进一步上涨，并使人们更难摆脱对煤炭等化石能源的依赖。英国央行官员暗示或将以更快步伐加息以免通胀更加顽固两位英国央行高级别官员表示，为了防止通胀更加顽固，他们准备在必要时以更快的速度加息；进一步显示，英国央行最快下个月就可能加息50个基点。首席经济学家Huw Pill表示，央行的最新指引显示，如有必要，愿意加快加息周期。数小时前，英国央行副行长Jon Cunliffe表示，央行“将采取一切必要措施”，以防止通胀持续，并承诺官员们“将采取行动，我们将会采取有力行动”。Pill在伦敦发表讲话时表示，英国央行6月承诺对通胀的持续采取“有力行动”，“既反映了我愿意比当前紧缩周期迄今为止的执行速度更快紧缩，同时也强调了行动步伐发生任何变化，都要取决于新的数据和分析。”“我们在8月份就政策决定表决前，还有很多问题要解决。届时我如何投票将由我们看到的数据和我的解读来定，”他说道。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPY":1,"OEX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SDS":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QID":0.6,".DJI":1,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070278831,"gmtCreate":1657070331623,"gmtModify":1676535943897,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070278831","repostId":"1126427898","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047502318,"gmtCreate":1656937918634,"gmtModify":1676535918487,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui Yean","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0965e84896827ab38942412eb422457d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118888674291832","authorIdStr":"4118888674291832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047502318","repostId":"1128701140","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128701140","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金融八卦女频道","id":"63","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7"},"pubTimestamp":1656917579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128701140?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 14:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128701140","media":"金融八卦女频道","summary":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Forcing the Air War\" that everyone on earth knew about finally came to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Qingshan Group retreated unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut his meat and lost 120 million dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>On June 29th news, Tsingshan Holding Group safely exited most of the short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of the positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two sides. Tsingshan Group has left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars is far from enough.</p><p>Friends who pay attention to this matter may still be \"dumbfounded\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What has really happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Aoyama counter-kills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly comb the whole process of the Lun Ni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lun nickel futures soared from $29,000/ton to $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8th, Lun Nickel futures rose from USD 60,000/ton to USD 100,000/ton, and the whole process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8: 15 on March 8th (UK time), LME suspended the trading of all nickel contracts and cancelled the trading after 0: 00 on March 8th, commonly known as \"pulling the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9th, Xiang Guangda admitted that he was forced short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot through various channels.</p><p>On March 15th, Qingshan Group said it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of creditors of futures banks. During this period, the position of Tsingshan will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its position thereafter.</p><p>On March 16th, nickel trading resumed on LME.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan exited most of its short nickel positions in LME, and the event ended.</p><p>Reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>I really can't blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has raised itself into \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it.</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Qingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin. The product delivered by Lunjin is electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high ice nickel and about 10% ferronickel. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Qingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of futures empty orders, but the nickel inventory of the whole Lunjin Institute was only 80,000 tons, which means that even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Institute, it couldn't make up half of its futures empty orders. 3. Usually, Qingshan Group will buy nickel with Russia to close its position when it encounters the delivery period. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel has been embargo. Tsingshan Group did not react to this news in time. To sum up, although Qingshan Group has a rich family, it has played out all the good cards at this card table, with only \"1 vs. 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this case, how could the naturally bloodthirsty Wall Street capital let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised the price of nickel futures on March 7th and March 8th, quickly raising the price of 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, which incidentally broke \"the highest record of any kind of asset price fluctuation.\"</p><p>At that time, the situation was that Qingshan Group had to lose hundreds of billions of dollars if it couldn't get the goods, and if it had no money, it had to sell Indonesia's nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese enterprises worked so hard to establish would be hit hard.</p><p>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others.</p><p>Although it was unknown who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Qingshan Holdings responded that it would replace the domestic metal nickel plate with its high ice nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>From the gossip, at that time, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement, which can be described as united. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"I have received many calls, and the relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why is the final result not that Qingshan Group takes out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and gives them to Wall Street takeover men, so that they have nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they can only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic enterprises do when so much nickel is handed over? Do all enterprises stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced and then resume production?</p><p>Although doing this was very relieving, the price to pay was too high.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\" with the confidence of being able to produce 200,000 tons of delivered products.</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29th, Qingshan Group reduced its short position to turn itself around. Although Wall Street institutions lost a little money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is really behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Qingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Pressing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve no less funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes, in order to get Qingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mine. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest Swiss enterprise with operating income of $215.11 billion, covering the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money on its own. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan sold it out long ago with its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a $120 million loss in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>It can make the old Wall Street investment banks lose hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short-squeezing\" incident in March, it is difficult to have other reasons to convince people. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Qingshan Group's large number of short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, about 50,000 tons of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase was mired in a $120 million loss.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan chief executive, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter and we're going to try to get through it. We're going to do an ex post analysis of what we did wrong and what different things we could do after LME.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>One, they are doing things for their customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin's behavior of \"pulling the network cable\", and perhaps they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what steps JPMorgan will take, but someone has already started to act. They don't seem to throw in the towel and are still doing the final struggle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/Visual China</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6th, on June 1st, the famous American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that Lunkin's \"cancellation of the transaction after 00: 00 UK time on March 8th, 2022 was illegal.\"</p><p>Two of Elliott's hedge funds have sued HKEx and its subsidiary LME and its clearing firm LME Clear Limite to the British High Court for a claim of about $456 million, or about RMB 3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1977 and with a fund under management of over $51.5 billion at the end of 2021, Elliott Management is a veritable wolf of Wall Street, known for its tough, aggressive and fierce investment style.</p><p>How fierce is Elliot really? It can make a nation unsettled.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changed in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion US dollars was unable to be repaid. Just as other financial institutions avoided it, Elliott bargained the Argentine Treasury Bond for $617 million.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. Creditors led by Elliott mercilessly refused twice and sued Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this trick is. It can be compared to what will happen to Evergrande now that creditors disagree with Evergrande's reorganization.</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle, and Elliott made 3.7 times this single, but every penny was hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>Exactly how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter is unclear. If Elliott can win the case with the HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out in full force.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinched Musk's life door? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, Glencore officials said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates is that the competition for metallic nickel has entered a white-hot stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is high nickel and ultra-high nickel batteries, this proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, which makes it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem for new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>The data shows that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of LME continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel deliveries are bought in large quantities for manufacturing new energy batteries. The shortfalls for nickel are expected to be-25,600 tonnes, -27,900 tonnes, and-65,300 tonnes from 2023 to 2025, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this God holding a rice bowl to feed Xiang Guangda?</p><p>In 1958, Xiang Guangda was born in a family of ordinary workers in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Doors and Windows Manufacturing Company with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Due to the emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's car doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with China First Automobile Wheel Factory, and invested 24 million yuan to set up \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, which officially entered the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the whole steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-ore heating furnace (RKEF) smelting technology, and led a team to develop a new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace double method, which cut the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton cost.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel. Who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia's Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the right to mining laterite nickel ore with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, the first nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company was successfully shipped back to China. Qingshan Holding Group has also conquered the technology of purifying high-ice nickel with laterite nickel ore. With one operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, stainless steel is not worried. Qingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Qingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to 10 million tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, Tsingshan Holding Group's total revenue reached 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500. According to Tianyan, Xiang Guangda occupies 48.45% of the equity of Qingshan Holding Group through various paths, and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Ownership Structure of Tsingshan Holdings/Screenshot of Tianyan Check</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, and new energy has become the hottest track at present. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD exceeded one trillion yuan, and Tesla's market value even exceeded the combined market value of several established car companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot in his hands. Tsingshan Holding's nickel output was 600,000 tons in 2021, 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel output, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\", and he has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>Not satisfied is just \"working\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Qingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy automobile industry.</p><p>It is just that there are many people who are popular, and the pigs on the outlet are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who had survived this \"calamity\" safely, still had to be careful. He had too much \"nickel\" in his hands, which was too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWenzhou's richest man battles Wall Street, JPMorgan loses 800 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/63\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a8ace21e1041b4bb972ca835e331c7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金融八卦女频道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-04 14:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others. After more than three months, the \"Demon Nickel Forcing the Air War\" that everyone on earth knew about finally came to an end:</p><p>Xiang Guangda, the richest man in Wenzhou, and his Qingshan Group retreated unscathed, and Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase cut his meat and lost 120 million dollars (about 800 million yuan).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Xiang Guangda, actual controller of Tsingshan Holdings/Source: Internet</p><p>On June 29th news, Tsingshan Holding Group safely exited most of the short nickel positions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The size of the positions has been reduced to about 30,000 tons, far lower than the peak of over 150,000 tons at the time of the incident, and these positions are not held through JPMorgan Chase.</p><p>This is probably the result of negotiations between the two sides. Tsingshan Group has left dignity for Wall Street bosses. Otherwise, according to the situation at that time, 120 million US dollars is far from enough.</p><p>Friends who pay attention to this matter may still be \"dumbfounded\". Isn't the legendary mastermind behind the scenes the Swiss commodity giant \"Glencore\"? Why did JPMorgan Chase lose money in the end?</p><p>What has really happened in these three months?</p><p><b>/Aoyama counter-kills, Wall Street miscalculates/</b></p><p>Briefly comb the whole process of the Lun Ni incident:</p><p>On March 7, 2022, Lun nickel futures soared from $29,000/ton to $55,000/ton, a new high in 15 years.</p><p>On March 8th, Lun Nickel futures rose from USD 60,000/ton to USD 100,000/ton, and the whole process took no more than one hour.</p><p>At 8: 15 on March 8th (UK time), LME suspended the trading of all nickel contracts and cancelled the trading after 0: 00 on March 8th, commonly known as \"pulling the network cable\".</p><p>On March 9th, Xiang Guangda admitted that he was forced short by foreign capital and had obtained sufficient spot through various channels.</p><p>On March 15th, Qingshan Group said it had reached a \"silent agreement\" with a syndicate of creditors of futures banks. During this period, the position of Tsingshan will not be closed, and Tsingshan Group will reduce its position thereafter.</p><p>On March 16th, nickel trading resumed on LME.</p><p>On June 29, Tsingshan exited most of its short nickel positions in LME, and the event ended.</p><p>Reading this, people who don't know the details will still have questions, why is Tsingshan Group targeted by Wall Street capital?</p><p>I really can't blame Wall Street Capital. Qingshan Group has raised itself into \"Tang Monk Meat\". Who doesn't want to eat it.</p><p>Tsingshan Group has three fatal loopholes in this matter:</p><p>1. The nickel produced by Qingshan Group is different from the delivery products traded by Lunjin. The product delivered by Lunjin is electrolytic nickel with a purity of more than 99.8%, while the nickel produced by Qingshan Group is only about 70% high ice nickel and about 10% ferronickel. 2. There is a problem with the hedging operation of Qingshan Group. At that time, it bought 200,000 tons of futures empty orders, but the nickel inventory of the whole Lunjin Institute was only 80,000 tons, which means that even if it bought all the nickel of Lunjin Institute, it couldn't make up half of its futures empty orders. 3. Usually, Qingshan Group will buy nickel with Russia to close its position when it encounters the delivery period. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the reversal of market logic, and Russian nickel has been embargo. Tsingshan Group did not react to this news in time. To sum up, although Qingshan Group has a rich family, it has played out all the good cards at this card table, with only \"1 vs. 3\" in its hand, and others can't afford to play any cards. In this case, how could the naturally bloodthirsty Wall Street capital let go of this seemingly \"must-win\" hunt? It's not like Wall Street hasn't done this before.</p><p>Therefore, Wall Street Capital quickly raised the price of nickel futures on March 7th and March 8th, quickly raising the price of 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars to 100,000 US dollars, which incidentally broke \"the highest record of any kind of asset price fluctuation.\"</p><p>At that time, the situation was that Qingshan Group had to lose hundreds of billions of dollars if it couldn't get the goods, and if it had no money, it had to sell Indonesia's nickel ore. The new energy industry chain that Chinese enterprises worked so hard to establish would be hit hard.</p><p>This time, Wall Street miscalculated. In the financial field, Wall Street is still the first in the world, but their opponents are not without progress. Through years of hard work, Chinese enterprises have gained rich market experience and abundant capital, and they still have the ability to fight back when they are beaten down on the ground by others.</p><p>Although it was unknown who started it at that time, on March 9th, Qingshan Group's counterattack began. Qingshan Holdings responded that it would replace the domestic metal nickel plate with its high ice nickel, which has been allocated to sufficient spot for delivery through various channels.</p><p>From the gossip, at that time, several large enterprises in the industry participated in this replacement, which can be described as united. Xiang Guangda's original words were: \"I have received many calls, and the relevant state departments and leaders are very supportive of Qingshan.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c59e434fbd20c251852e2cf114ed5ca\" tg-width=\"509\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda0030b524a1d6ae7153f6bcfe1ae9\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>So, why is the final result not that Qingshan Group takes out 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products and gives them to Wall Street takeover men, so that they have nowhere to store the goods. In the end, they can only sell them at a low price and lose tens of billions of dollars?</p><p>Collecting 200,000 tons of nickel delivery products can certainly solve the urgent need, but what should domestic enterprises do when so much nickel is handed over? Do all enterprises stop production and wait for a few months before new nickel is produced and then resume production?</p><p>Although doing this was very relieving, the price to pay was too high.</p><p>As a mature entrepreneur, Xiang Guangda negotiated with his opponents from March 9th to March 15th, and finally reached a \"silent agreement\" with the confidence of being able to produce 200,000 tons of delivered products.</p><p>Judging from the news on June 29th, Qingshan Group reduced its short position to turn itself around. Although Wall Street institutions lost a little money, they avoided the expansion of losses, which is an acceptable result for both sides.</p><p><b>/Who is really behind the \"Demon Nickel War\"? /</b></p><p>When the incident happened in early March, someone pressed the calculator and said that Qingshan Group might lose 8 billion to 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to hundreds of billions of RMB. Pressing such a large amount of funds will inevitably involve no less funds.</p><p>At that time, some people suspected that commodity giant Glencore was behind the scenes, in order to get Qingshan's 60% stake in Indonesian nickel mine. Founded in 1974, Glencore is the largest Swiss enterprise with operating income of $215.11 billion, covering the supply of mineral products, energy products and agricultural products.</p><p>But it is impossible for Glencore to spend so much money on its own. There must be a team behind it. Judging from the current situation, at least now, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott, two \"wolves from Wall Street\", have been forced out.</p><p>In April, JPMorgan sold it out long ago with its first-quarter earnings report, which showed a $120 million loss in nickel-related businesses.</p><p>It can make the old Wall Street investment banks lose hundreds of millions of dollars on a single futures commodity in the first quarter. Except for participating in the \"demon nickel short-squeezing\" incident in March, it is difficult to have other reasons to convince people. Afterwards, relevant information also proved that it was the largest counterparty of Qingshan Group's large number of short positions.</p><p>Three months ago, about 50,000 tons of Tsingshan's more than 150,000 tons of nickel short positions were held through JPMorgan Chase's over-the-counter positions. At that time, Tsingshan Holding Group once owed JPMorgan Chase about $1 billion in margin. In just three months, JPMorgan Chase was mired in a $120 million loss.</p><p>With such a big hole in finance, the person in charge has to say something.</p><p>Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan chief executive, said reluctantly: \"We had a bit of a loss this quarter and we're going to try to get through it. We're going to do an ex post analysis of what we did wrong and what different things we could do after LME.\"</p><p>This sentence is very official, but it has two meanings:</p><p>One, they are doing things for their customers. JPMorgan Chase lost money, and so did their customers. As for who the customer is, whether it is Glencore or not, it is not said. Second, they have reservations about Lunjin's behavior of \"pulling the network cable\", and perhaps they have to \"take measures\". It's hard to say what steps JPMorgan will take, but someone has already started to act. They don't seem to throw in the towel and are still doing the final struggle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373adb34449d811ea165e417eea1bae6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Source/Visual China</p><p>According to the announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 6th, on June 1st, the famous American investment company \"Elliott Management Company\" attacked them, arguing that Lunkin's \"cancellation of the transaction after 00: 00 UK time on March 8th, 2022 was illegal.\"</p><p>Two of Elliott's hedge funds have sued HKEx and its subsidiary LME and its clearing firm LME Clear Limite to the British High Court for a claim of about $456 million, or about RMB 3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9692a7e3296316fcd1fde0c491252117\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"712\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Founded in 1977 and with a fund under management of over $51.5 billion at the end of 2021, Elliott Management is a veritable wolf of Wall Street, known for its tough, aggressive and fierce investment style.</p><p>How fierce is Elliot really? It can make a nation unsettled.</p><p>At the end of 2000, Argentina was in turmoil, with five consecutive presidents changed in half a month, and its foreign debt of up to 150 billion US dollars was unable to be repaid. Just as other financial institutions avoided it, Elliott bargained the Argentine Treasury Bond for $617 million.</p><p>In the following nine years, Argentina proposed a debt restructuring plan in order to revive the economy. Creditors led by Elliott mercilessly refused twice and sued Argentina to the American court. I can't imagine how ruthless this trick is. It can be compared to what will happen to Evergrande now that creditors disagree with Evergrande's reorganization.</p><p>On June 16, 2017, the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately ruled against Argentina. Argentina tearfully took out $2.28 billion to settle, and Elliott made 3.7 times this single, but every penny was hard-earned money of the Argentine people.</p><p>Exactly how many Wall Street capital institutions are involved in this matter is unclear. If Elliott can win the case with the HKEx, it may be possible to see. Because when \"dividing the meat\", the wolves on Wall Street will be willing to go out in full force.</p><p><b>/\"China's Nickel King\" pinched Musk's life door? /</b></p><p>According to national business daily, Glencore officials said in response to whether they were involved in the matter, \"The above statement is total nonsense.\"</p><p>However, the report also pointed out that some insiders believe that Glencore is an indirect participant in this wave of market even if it is not directly involved. The reason why the market speculates is that the competition for metallic nickel has entered a white-hot stage on a global scale.</p><p>Nickel is one of the important raw materials for manufacturing new energy ternary lithium batteries, accounting for nearly 30% of the total battery cost. If it is high nickel and ultra-high nickel batteries, this proportion will be even higher. However, nickel is unevenly distributed all over the world, which makes it difficult to mine.</p><p>\"Nickel anxiety\" is a common problem for new energy vehicle bosses. Even Tesla CEO Musk said that the shortage of nickel raw materials is the biggest obstacle to the production of electric vehicle batteries.</p><p>The data shows that from March 2021 to March 2022, the nickel inventory of LME continued to decline, with a drop of nearly 70%. The main reason is that nickel deliveries are bought in large quantities for manufacturing new energy batteries. The shortfalls for nickel are expected to be-25,600 tonnes, -27,900 tonnes, and-65,300 tonnes from 2023 to 2025, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4245aa1e37a9a023ca6069abaa0dccba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Isn't this God holding a rice bowl to feed Xiang Guangda?</p><p>In 1958, Xiang Guangda was born in a family of ordinary workers in Shacheng Town, Longwan, Wenzhou. After graduation, he worked in a state-owned enterprise for eight years and became the workshop director.</p><p>In 1988, Xiang Guangda was ready to \"stand at thirty\". He gave up the \"iron rice bowl\" that everyone envied at that time, and jointly founded Zhejiang Ouhai Automobile Doors and Windows Manufacturing Company with Zhang Jimin and other relatives.</p><p>Due to the emphasis on research and development, Xiang Guangda's car doors and windows business is very good. At the end of 1993, he jointly developed automobile rim steel with China First Automobile Wheel Factory, and invested 24 million yuan to set up \"Zhejiang Fengye Special-shaped Steel Company\". In 1995, the company was reorganized and \"Zhejiang Fengye Group Co., Ltd.\" was established, which officially entered the stainless steel industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1739f693edc5047788bfff78b4944285\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After 2005, the whole steel industry entered a destocking cycle. Xiang Guangda realized that if it didn't change, the enterprise would sooner or later be submerged in the torrent of stainless steel enterprises.</p><p>Xiang Guangda invested 10 billion yuan in research and development of new technologies, took the lead in introducing the internationally advanced rotary kiln-ore heating furnace (RKEF) smelting technology, and led a team to develop a new technology of RKEF-AOD furnace double method, which cut the total energy consumption of stainless steel smelting by 50% and saved 800 yuan per ton cost.</p><p>\"60%-70% of stainless steel is nickel. Who produces nickel? It is produced by foreigners, but we don't produce it ourselves.\" Xiang Guangda put the production of \"nickel\" on the agenda again.</p><p>During the financial crisis in 2008, Xiang Guangda took the opportunity to acquire the Indonesian nickel mine with the highest nickel reserves in the world. Tsingshan Holdings and Indonesia's Eight Star Investment Co., Ltd. jointly established Sulawesi Mining Investment Co., Ltd., and obtained the right to mining laterite nickel ore with an area of 47,000 hectares.</p><p>The mining park was quickly established, and in February 2010, the first nickel produced abroad by a Chinese company was successfully shipped back to China. Qingshan Holding Group has also conquered the technology of purifying high-ice nickel with laterite nickel ore. With one operation, Xiang Guangda has opened up the upstream and downstream of nickel production.</p><p>With \"nickel\" in hand, stainless steel is not worried. Qingshan Holding Group has more than ten stainless steel subsidiaries. From 2009 to 2019, Qingshan Holding's stainless steel output increased from one million tons to 10 million tons, and its sales increased from tens of billions to more than 200 billion yuan. At present, it has secured the throne of the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer.</p><p>Xiang Guangda has also become a frequent visitor at the local government enterprise symposium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ceaa170e4d055c8235a32992a6dfb\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In 2021, Tsingshan Holding Group's total revenue reached 292.892 billion, ranking 279th among the world's top 500. According to Tianyan, Xiang Guangda occupies 48.45% of the equity of Qingshan Holding Group through various paths, and is the actual controller of the group.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/684284868a43986c93078ec1487797ce\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>▲ Ownership Structure of Tsingshan Holdings/Screenshot of Tianyan Check</p><p>In recent years, the new energy industry has gradually emerged, especially after 2020, and new energy has become the hottest track at present. The market value of A-share CATL and BYD exceeded one trillion yuan, and Tesla's market value even exceeded the combined market value of several established car companies.</p><p>The new energy industry is short of nickel, and Xiang Guangda has a lot in his hands. Tsingshan Holding's nickel output was 600,000 tons in 2021, 850,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 30% of the global total, and 1.1 million tons in 2023.</p><p>Holding nearly 30% of the world's nickel output, it can be said that Xiang Guangda is a proper \"king of nickel\", and he has also pinched the life gate of the new energy automobile industry to death.</p><p>Not satisfied is just \"working\" for new energy vehicles. At present, Qingshan Group has joined hands with Xugong Group to enter the new energy automobile industry.</p><p>It is just that there are many people who are popular, and the pigs on the outlet are also the easiest targets to be attacked. Xiang Guangda, who had survived this \"calamity\" safely, still had to be careful. He had too much \"nickel\" in his hands, which was too tempting.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3f5a82dbe41eeb1131b5fe7f4f8e37","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128701140","content_text":"这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。时隔三个多月，全地球人都知道的“妖镍逼空大战”，终于告一段落：温州首富项光达和他的青山集团全身而退，华尔街巨头摩根大通割肉出局，亏了1.2亿美金（约8亿人民币）。▲青山控股实控人项光达/图源：网络6月29日消息，青山控股集团安全退出了伦敦金属交易所（LME）的大部分镍空头头寸。持仓规模已经缩减至3万吨左右，远低于事发时的超15万吨的峰值，且这些头寸都不是通过摩根大通持有。这很可能是双方协商的结果，青山集团给华尔街大佬留了体面，否则根据当时的情况，1.2亿美金是远远不够的。关注这个事情的朋友可能还“懵着”，传说中的幕后黑手不是瑞士大宗商品巨鳄“嘉能可”吗，怎么最后亏损的是摩根大通？这三个月到底发生了什么？/青山反杀，华尔街失算/简单梳理一下伦镍事件的整个过程：2022年3月7日伦镍期货从2.9万美元/吨，飙涨到5.5万美元/吨，创15年内新高。3月8日伦镍期货从6万美元/吨直线拉升到10万美元/吨，整个过程不超过1小时。3月8日8时15分（英国时间），伦金所暂停所有镍合约的交易，并取消3月8日0点之后的交易，俗称“拔网线”。3月9日，项光达承认被外国资本逼空，已通过多种渠道获得充足现货。3月15日，青山集团表示与期货银行债权人组成的银团达成“静默协议”。期间不会对青山的持仓进行平仓，此后青山集团会减少持仓。3月16日，伦金所镍交易恢复。6月29日，青山集团退出了伦金所的大部分镍空头头寸，事件结束。读到这里，不了解其中细节的人还会有疑问，为什么是青山集团被华尔街资本盯上了呢？还真不能怪华尔街资本，青山集团把自己养成“唐僧肉”，谁不想吃呢。青山集团在此事上有三大致命漏洞：1、青山集团生产的镍，与伦金所交易的交割品不一样。伦金所交割品是纯度高达99.8%以上的电解镍，而青山集团生产的镍只有70%左右高冰镍和含量10%左右的镍铁。2、青山集团的对冲操作有问题。当时它买了20万吨期货空单，但整个伦金所镍库存只有8万吨，也就是说把伦金所的镍都买了，也凑不齐它期货空单的一半。3、平常青山集团遇到交割期，会跟俄罗斯买镍平仓。俄乌冲突导致市场逻辑逆转，俄罗斯的镍被禁运，青山集团没有及时对这一消息有所反应。综上，青山集团虽然家底丰厚，但在这张牌桌上，它把好牌都出了，手里只有“1对3”，别人出什么牌都要不起。遇到这种情况，天生嗜血的华尔街资本，怎么可能放过这场看似“必赢”的围猎。华尔街以前也不是没干过这种事。所以，华尔街资本于3月7日、3月8日两日快速拉升镍期货价格，将两三万美金的东西快速拉升到10万美金，顺带破了“任何一种资产价格波动的最高纪录。”当时的情况就是，青山集团拿不出货就得赔钱上千亿，没钱就得卖印尼的镍矿，中国企业辛辛苦苦建立的新能源产业链，恐将遭到狠狠一棒槌。这次华尔街失算了，金融领域华尔街还是天下第一，但他们的对手也不是没有长进。中国企业通过多年的努力，已经获得了丰富的市场经验和丰厚的资本，被别人摁在地上暴打时，还是有能力反击的。虽然当时还不知道谁下手的，但3月9日，青山集团的反杀就开始了。青山控股回应称，将用旗下高冰镍置换国内金属镍板，已通过多种渠道调配到充足现货进行交割。从小道消息来看，当时业内好几家大型企业都参与到了此次的置换，可谓是众志成城。项光达的原话是：“接到很多电话，国家有关部门和领导对青山都很支持。”那么，最后的结果为什么不是青山集团拿出20万吨镍交割品，交给华尔街接盘侠，让他们拿货无处存放，最后只能低价出售，赔上百亿美金呢？凑了20万吨镍交割品固然能够解决燃眉之急，但这么多镍交出去，国内企业该怎么办？难道所有企业都停止生产，等上几个月，新镍生产出来再恢复生产？这么做，固然很解气，付出的代价也太大了。项光达作为成熟的企业家，3月9日到3月15日，他在能拿出20万吨交割品的底气下，同对手进行了谈判，最终达成了“静默协议”。从6月29日的消息来看，青山集团缩减了空头头寸让自己转危为安，华尔街机构虽然赔了点小钱，但避免了损失扩大化，算是两边都能接受的结果。/谁是“妖镍大战”真正的幕后黑手？/3月初事件发生时，有人按过计算器，说当时青山集团可能亏损80亿到120亿美金，折合人民币上千亿。逼空这么大体量资金，涉及的资金必然不会少。当时有人怀疑大宗商品巨头嘉能可是幕后黑手，目的是为了拿到青山在印尼镍矿60%的股权。嘉能可成立于1974年，是瑞士最大的企业，营业收入高达2151.1亿美元，经营范围覆盖矿产品、能源产品和农产品的供应。但嘉能可不可能自己拿出这么多钱，背后一定有团队。从目前的情况看，至少现在已经逼出来摩根大通和埃利奥特这两头“来自华尔街的狼”。4月，摩根大通第一季财报早就出卖了它，财报显示与镍相关的业务出现了1.2亿美元的亏损。能让华尔街老牌投行一季度在单一期货商品上大亏上亿美元，除了参与了3月的“妖镍逼空”事件，很难有别的理由让人信服。事后相关信息也证明，它是青山集团大量空头头寸的最大交易对手方。而三个月前，在青山逾15万吨的镍空头头寸中，约有5万吨是通过摩根大通场外头寸持有，当时青山控股集团一度欠摩根大通约10亿美元保证金。短短三个月间，摩根大通便陷入了1.2亿美元亏损的泥潭。财务上出了这么大窟窿，负责人总得说点什么吧。摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）不情愿地说：“我们本季度有一点亏损，我们会设法渡过难关的。我们会对自己做错了什么，以及伦金所之后可以采取哪些不同措施进行事后分析。”这句话说的很官方，但细品有两重意思：一，他们是在帮客户做事，摩根大通亏了，他们的客户也亏了。至于客户是谁，是不是嘉能可，并没说。二，他们对伦金所“拔网线”的行为是有保留意见的，说不定还得“采取措施”。摩根大通会采取什么措施不好说，但有人已经开始行动了，他们似乎并不认输，还在做最后的挣扎。▲图源/视觉中国根据港交所6月6日发布的公告，6月1日美国著名投资公司“埃利奥特管理公司”向他们发难，认为伦金所“取消2022年3月8日英国时间00：00之后交易的行为不合法。”埃利奥特旗下两只对冲基金将港交所和其子公司伦金所（LME）及其清算公司LME Clear Limite告上英国高等法院，准备索赔约4.56亿美元，约30亿人民币。埃利奥特管理公司成立于1977年，2021年底基金管理规模超515亿美元，它是名副其实的华尔街之狼，以强硬、激进、狠辣的投资风格闻名。埃利奥特到底有多凶狠？它能让一个国家不得安生。2000年底，阿根廷动荡不安，半个月连续换了5任总统，高达1500亿美元的外债无力偿还。正当其他金融机构避之不及时，埃利奥特用6.17亿美元抄底阿根廷国债。此后9年时间里，阿根廷为了重振经济提出债务重组方案，埃利奥特为首的债权人2次无情拒绝，还将阿根廷告上美国法庭。想象不到这招有多狠，可以类比现在债权人不同意恒大重组，恒大会怎样。2017年6月16日，美国最高法院最终判决阿根廷败诉。阿根廷含泪拿出了22.8亿美元和解，这一单埃利奥特赚了3.7倍，但每一分钱都是阿根廷人民的血汗钱。至于到底有多少华尔街的资本机构参与此事，目前还不明确。如果埃利奥特能从与港交所的官司中获胜，或许有可能看到。因为“分肉”的时候，华尔街的狼才会愿意倾巢出动。/“中国镍王”捏住马斯克们命门？ /据《每日经济新闻》报道，嘉能可相关人员在回复是否参与此事时表示，“上述这种说法完全是胡说八道（total nonsense）。”但报道中也同时指出有行内人员认为嘉能可即使没有直接参与，也是这一波行情的间接参与者。市场之所以这样猜测，是因为在全球范围内，对于金属镍的争夺已经进入白热化的阶段。镍是制造新能源三元锂电池的重要原材料之一，在电池总成本中占比将近30%，如果是高镍、超高镍电池这个比例还将更高。但镍元素在全世界分布不均，开采难度大。“镍焦虑”是新能源汽车大佬的普遍问题，连特斯拉CEO马斯克都说，镍原料的短缺是影响电动车电池生产的最大障碍。数据显示，2021年3月至2022年3月，伦金所的镍库存持续下降，降幅接近70%。主要原因是镍交割品被大量买去用于制造新能源电池。预计2023年-2025年镍的缺口分别为-2.56万吨、-2.79万吨、-6.53万吨。这不就是老天爷端着饭碗给项光达喂饭吗？1958年项光达出生于温州龙湾沙城镇的一个普通工人家庭。毕业后在国企干了八年，还当上了车间主任。1988年，项光达准备“三十而立”，他放弃了当时人人羡慕的“铁饭碗”，联合张积敏等亲戚合伙创办了“浙江瓯海汽车门窗制造公司”。由于注重研发，项光达的汽车门窗生意很好。1993年底，他与中国一汽车轮厂联合开发汽车轮辋钢，并投资2400万元，成立“浙江丰业异型钢公司”。并于1995年改组公司，成立“浙江丰业集团有限公司”，正式进入不锈钢行业。2005年之后，整个钢铁行业进入去库存周期。项光达意识到，如果不改变，企业迟早淹没在不锈钢企业的洪流中。项光达拿出100亿投入研发新技术，率先引进国际先进的回转窑—矿热炉（RKEF）冶炼工艺，又带队研发出RKEF—AOD炉双联法新技术，把不锈钢冶炼的总能耗砍掉了50%，每吨成本节省800元。“不锈钢60%--70%都是镍，那镍是谁来生产的？是老外生产的，我们自己没有生产。”项光达又将生产“镍”提到了议事日程。2008年金融危机时，项光达趁机收购了全球镍储量最高的印尼镍矿。青山控股与印尼八星投资有限公司合资设立苏拉威西矿业投资有限公司，获得了面积为4.70万公顷的红土镍矿开采权。矿业园区很快建立，2010年2月，第一次由中国公司在国外生产的镍顺利装船回国。青山控股集团又攻克了用红土镍矿提纯高冰镍的技术，一通操作下来，项光达已经打通了镍生产的上下游。有“镍”在手，不锈钢不愁。青山控股集团旗下有十多家不锈钢类子公司，2009年至2019年，青山控股不锈钢产量从百万吨增至千万吨，销售额从几百亿增至2000多亿元，目前已经坐稳全球最大不锈钢生产企业的宝座。项光达也成为当地政府企业座谈会上的常客。2021年青山控股集团总营收高达2928.92亿，位列世界500强第279位。天眼查显示，项光达通过各种路径，占有青山控股集团的股权比例高达48.45%，是集团的实际控制人。▲青山控股股权结构/天眼查截图这些年，新能源产业逐步兴起，尤其是2020年之后，新能源成为当下最火的赛道，没有之一。A股的宁德时代、比亚迪市值破万亿，特斯拉的市值甚至超过几家老牌汽车公司市值总和。新能源行业缺镍，项光达手里有很多。青山控股2021年镍产量为60万吨，2022年将达到85万吨占到全球总量的30%，2023年更将达到110万吨。手握全球近30%的镍产量，可以说，项光达是妥妥的“镍之王”，也把新能源汽车行业的命门捏得死死的。不满足只是给新能源汽车“打工”，目前青山集团已携手徐工集团，入局新能源汽车产业。只是人红是非多，风口上的猪也是最容易被下手的对象。安然渡过这一“劫”的项光达，还是要小心，他手上的“镍”太多，太诱人了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044862282,"gmtCreate":1656731800646,"gmtModify":1676535886315,"author":{"id":"4118888674291832","authorId":"4118888674291832","name":"Hui 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