Profile - To The Moon

PCTEO

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- PCTEOPCTEO
  ·10-03
  I got Nvidia….[Cool]
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- PCTEOPCTEO
  ·08-09
  Replying to @Zarkness:My first ever stock is grab. It’s a good investment.//@Zarkness:My first ever stock is $UOB(U11.SI)$ . My favorite investment in reit is $First Reit(AW9U.SI)$ which I still hold . I choose sg invest is because I am Singaporean and the only way I know. Happy national day Singapore 🇸🇬 and I love you so ❤️🌹
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- PCTEOPCTEO
  ·2023-04-08
  Nice
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- PCTEOPCTEO
  ·2023-03-22
  Timely action is needed to mitigate this banking crisis before it is out of control.
  Banking Crisis Alert: Is Buffett’s Meeting With Biden 2008 All Over Again?
  According to reports, Warren Buffett has started advising President Joe Biden on the current banking
  Banking Crisis Alert: Is Buffett’s Meeting With Biden 2008 All Over Again?
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- PCTEOPCTEO
  ·2023-03-21
  Stabilise the bank stabilised the economy
  Feds Mull Unlimited Deposit Guarantees If Bank Crisis Worsens: Report
  Treasury Department officials are considering ways to temporarily expand federal guarantees on all b
  Feds Mull Unlimited Deposit Guarantees If Bank Crisis Worsens: Report
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- PCTEOPCTEO
  ·2023-03-15
  Agreed
  Is Sea Limited Finally Out of Its Trouble?
  Investors need courage and patience to ride out this storm.
  Is Sea Limited Finally Out of Its Trouble?
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- PCTEOPCTEO
  ·2022-08-20
  Buy at opportunities
  Bitcoin: Black Swans Are Lurking
  SummaryBitcoin's blow-off top at $25k on August 14th signifies the end of a reflexive rally, representing the "return to normal" stage of a bubble.We anticipate Bitcoin is entering "phase 2" of its fi
  Bitcoin: Black Swans Are Lurking
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It’s a good investment.//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3572916667219493\">@Zarkness</a>:My first ever stock is <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/U11.SI\">$UOB(U11.SI)$</a> . My favorite investment in reit is <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AW9U.SI\">$First Reit(AW9U.SI)$</a> which I still hold . I choose sg invest is because I am Singaporean and the only way I know. Happy national day Singapore 🇸🇬 and I love you so ❤️🌹","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3572916667219493\">@Zarkness</a>:My first ever stock is grab. It’s a good investment.//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3572916667219493\">@Zarkness</a>:My first ever stock is <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/U11.SI\">$UOB(U11.SI)$</a> . My favorite investment in reit is <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AW9U.SI\">$First Reit(AW9U.SI)$</a> which I still hold . I choose sg invest is because I am Singaporean and the only way I know. 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBanking Crisis Alert: Is Buffett’s Meeting With Biden 2008 All Over Again?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-22 14:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/03/banking-crisis-alert-is-buffetts-meeting-with-biden-2008-all-over-again/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>According to reports, Warren Buffett has started advising President Joe Biden on the current banking crisis.A number of regional banks are under duress as a result of seemingly spontaneous bank runs....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/03/banking-crisis-alert-is-buffetts-meeting-with-biden-2008-all-over-again/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","SIVBQ":"硅谷银行","SBNY":"签字银行","JPM":"摩根大通","BAC":"美国银行","GS":"高盛","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行","PACW":"西太平洋合众银行"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/03/banking-crisis-alert-is-buffetts-meeting-with-biden-2008-all-over-again/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321213608","content_text":"According to reports, Warren Buffett has started advising President Joe Biden on the current banking crisis.A number of regional banks are under duress as a result of seemingly spontaneous bank runs.The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and larger banking conglomerates have already stepped in to assist the banking system, with some even considering raising the deposit insurance limit.According to recent reports, Warren Buffett — the Oracle of Omaha himself — has begun advising President Joe Biden on the brewing banking crisis. This has ignited rumors of an impending bank bailout akin to the 2008 financial crisis.Per a Bloomberg report, the billionaire has already had multiple meetings with the Biden Administration on the regional banking failures. According to anonymous sources familiar with the matter, the calls have focused on the possibility of Buffett investing in the regional banking sector. Buffett has also provided general guidance on how to handle the situation.If you recall, this isn’t Buffett’s first rodeo. In fact, the Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A, NYSE: BKR-B) founder has stepped in several times to assist the U.S. government with various banking concerns.Buffett famously offered $5 billion to Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) in 2008 in order to stabilize the bank in the wake of the Lehman Brothers collapse. In 2011, he also floated Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) a $5 billion cash injection when the bank stumbled in the face of failing subprime mortgages. This proved to be a major money maker for Berkshire. As part of the deal, the company earned the right to purchase 700 million common shares of BofA, which — when they executed the deal in 2017 — netted the company a tidy $12 billion windfall.Now, Biden is in the middle of a political quandary, tasked with navigating an increasingly uncertain banking situation while trying to avoid bailing out banks on the tax payer’s dime. With less than two years out from the next election, he’s also attempting to balance stubborn inflation and growing recession fears.What do you need to know about the current banking situation?Banking Crisis Shows Shades of 2008 Amidst Indirect BailoutsLast week, U.S. regulators announced they would take surprisingly strong measures to protect businesses and individuals with financial exposure to the regional banking failures. Indeed, the Treasury is currently investigating the possibility of raising its insurance cap to cover deposits beyond the current $250,000 limit. That’s a move several bank coalitions have already voiced support for.White House spokesman Michael Kikukawa said the following about the situation:“We will use the tools we have to support community banks […] Since our administration and the regulators took decisive action last weekend, we have seen deposits stabilize at regional banks throughout the country and, in some cases, outflows have modestly reversed.”Of course, raising the Federal Deposit Insurance (FDIC) insurance cap will likely face some dissent from Republicans. As such, the Treasury is exploring whether it has the emergency authority to raise the FDIC limit without Congressional approval. The House Freedom Caucus said on Monday:“Any universal guarantee on all bank deposits, whether implicit or explicit, enshrines a dangerous precedent that simply encourages future irresponsible behavior to be paid for by those not involved who followed the rules.”Last week, the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and FDIC also announced they would insure all deposits at the now-defunct Silicon Valley Bank of SVB Financial (NASDAQ: SIVB) and Signature Bank (NASDAQ: SBNY). President Biden later pointed out that federal banking fees would likely pay for the move, taking the onus off tax payers.Currently, several other regional banks are still under duress. These include First Republic (NYSE: FRC), PacWest (NASDAQ: PACW) and Western Alliance (NYSE: WAL). Tens of billions have been withdrawn from the mid-sized banks in recent weeks, with the likes of JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) and other larger financial institutions stepping in to hoist up the banking system.Is This the Same as 2008?Despite the similarities, this isn’t 2008. Back then, banks were caught making risky bets in an unproven housing market. These bets ended up deteriorating their liquidity to the point of wider collapse.Currently, the issue isn’t really that banks are failing, but rather that confidence in banks has slipped. Depositors have essentially manufactured a bank run. This has inadvertently led to a liquidity crisis, as is the nature of the fractional banking system.Unlike 2008, most major banks are doing fine. Some are even enjoying a surge of deposits, attributable to depositors transferring their funds from regional banks to larger financial institutions.“This is different from 2008,” said Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday, “2008 was a solvency crisis; rather what we’re seeing are contagious bank runs.”That isn’t to say there’s no risk of greater financial ruin. Per a BofA monthly survey of fund managers, investor perception of market risk has reached levels last seen amid the Great Recession. Additionally, concerns over a “systemic credit event” skyrocketed last month.Heading into the next rate hike decision Wednesday, the question remains whether the Fed will stay the course with its tightening agenda. Just weeks ago, analysts theorized that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may opt for a hefty 50 basis point hike. Now, in the face of the brewing banking crisis, most experts expect either a 25 basis point increase or no change at all. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk even believes the Fed should lower rates by 50 points.“The Fed is facing a difficult task on Wednesday, but it is likely already past the point of no return – a soft landing now looks unlikely, with the airplane in a tailspin (lack of market confidence) and engines about to turn off (bank lending),” said JPMorgan analysts on Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PACW":0.9,"SBNY":1,"BRK.B":0.9,"GS":0.9,"FRC":0.9,"SIVB":0.9,"SIVBQ":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"WAL":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943840792,"gmtCreate":1679369799516,"gmtModify":1679370267032,"author":{"id":"4110596512684042","authorId":"4110596512684042","name":"PCTEO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12fd9611b5c3fca51f49f109082a3d6a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4110596512684042","idStr":"4110596512684042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stabilise the bank stabilised the economy&nbsp;","listText":"Stabilise the bank stabilised the economy&nbsp;","text":"Stabilise the bank stabilised the economy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943840792","repostId":"2321695783","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2321695783","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1679368060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2321695783?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-21 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Feds Mull Unlimited Deposit Guarantees If Bank Crisis Worsens: Report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2321695783","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Treasury Department officials are considering ways to temporarily expand federal guarantees on all b","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Treasury Department officials are considering ways to temporarily expand federal guarantees on all bank deposits in case the crisis gripping the banking industry worsens, according to a new report.</p><p>Bloomberg News reported late Monday that officials are studying whether regulators could have emergency authority to temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage above its $250,000 cap without needing approval from Congress.</p><p>Sources told Bloomberg that while such a move is not seen as necessary yet, officials want to be prepared for a worst-case scenario in case there are more runs on banks.</p><p>Last week, federal regulators said depositors of failed Silicon Valley Bank and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNYP\">Signature Bank</a> would have “full access to all of their money,” in an effort to reassure investors and the public.</p><p>The possibility of unlimited deposit insurance has been raised in Congress recently, though how to pay for it remains to be seen.</p></body></html>","source":"mwatch_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Feds Mull Unlimited Deposit Guarantees If Bank Crisis Worsens: Report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFeds Mull Unlimited Deposit Guarantees If Bank Crisis Worsens: Report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-21 11:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-mull-unlimited-deposit-guarantees-if-bank-crisis-worsens-report-fc84208f?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Treasury Department officials are considering ways to temporarily expand federal guarantees on all bank deposits in case the crisis gripping the banking industry worsens, according to a new report....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-mull-unlimited-deposit-guarantees-if-bank-crisis-worsens-report-fc84208f?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-mull-unlimited-deposit-guarantees-if-bank-crisis-worsens-report-fc84208f?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321695783","content_text":"Treasury Department officials are considering ways to temporarily expand federal guarantees on all bank deposits in case the crisis gripping the banking industry worsens, according to a new report.Bloomberg News reported late Monday that officials are studying whether regulators could have emergency authority to temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage above its $250,000 cap without needing approval from Congress.Sources told Bloomberg that while such a move is not seen as necessary yet, officials want to be prepared for a worst-case scenario in case there are more runs on banks.Last week, federal regulators said depositors of failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank would have “full access to all of their money,” in an effort to reassure investors and the public.The possibility of unlimited deposit insurance has been raised in Congress recently, though how to pay for it remains to be seen.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949443017,"gmtCreate":1678851242840,"gmtModify":1678854807955,"author":{"id":"4110596512684042","authorId":"4110596512684042","name":"PCTEO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12fd9611b5c3fca51f49f109082a3d6a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4110596512684042","idStr":"4110596512684042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agreed&nbsp;","listText":"Agreed&nbsp;","text":"Agreed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949443017","repostId":"2319775010","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2319775010","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678849024,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2319775010?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-15 10:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Sea Limited Finally Out of Its Trouble?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319775010","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Investors need courage and patience to ride out this storm.","content":"<div>\n<p>Once a darling among investors, Sea Limited  has fallen out of favor over the last 12 months. Investors were concerned about two issues:1. Can the Garena gaming operation turn around its business?2. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/14/is-sea-limited-finally-out-of-its-trouble/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Sea Limited Finally Out of Its Trouble?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Sea Limited Finally Out of Its Trouble?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-15 10:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/14/is-sea-limited-finally-out-of-its-trouble/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Once a darling among investors, Sea Limited  has fallen out of favor over the last 12 months. Investors were concerned about two issues:1. Can the Garena gaming operation turn around its business?2. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/14/is-sea-limited-finally-out-of-its-trouble/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/03/14/is-sea-limited-finally-out-of-its-trouble/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2319775010","content_text":"Once a darling among investors, Sea Limited  has fallen out of favor over the last 12 months. Investors were concerned about two issues:1. Can the Garena gaming operation turn around its business?2. Is the Shopee e-commerce platform a viable business?Sea's latest earnings report shows us how the company has dealt with these challenges and the early results.Challenge 1: Can Garena turn around its declining business?Asked about Sea, informed investors will usually point out that it's a leading e-commerce company in Southeast Asia. While e-commerce is currently its most significant revenue contributor, Sea started mainly as a gaming company.As recently as 2021, Garena had more than $1 billion in bookings every quarter. That year, the digital entertainment business generated $2.8 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). By comparison, the e-commerce business generated a negative adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion.But the good times did not last long for Garena. As the pandemic lockdown propelled its business to the sky, the reopening of global economies pulled it back to earth. Bookings -- a metric that tracks in-game purchases by Garena's gamers -- peaked at $1.2 billion per quarter in the second and third quarters of 2021, and have declined since then.In the fourth quarter of 2022, bookings fell to just $544 million, not even half of their recent peak. A lower active user base -- down from 729 million at its peak in the third quarter of 2021 to 486 million -- and a lower-paying user ratio contributed to the fall in bookings.To address the recent challenges, management has reduced its development pipeline to contain costs while improving user engagement on its core offering, Free Fire. The team hopes the gaming business will see better times when the macro environment improves.Overall, Garena is still in deep trouble. Investors should track this segment closely in the coming quarters.Challenge 2: Is Shopee a viable business model?Shopee was a huge benefiter of the surge in e-commerce penetration in Southeast Asia and Brazil during the pandemic -- revenue surged by 160% and 136%, respectively, in 2020 and 2021.While consumer demand naturally spiked during that time, Shopee also invested heavily in subsidies and promotions to further solidify its leadership. It could do so thanks to the enormous cash flow from its sister company, Garena.Shopee's aggressive expansion wasn't cheap, with adjusted EBITDA coming in at negative $1.3 billion in 2020 and $2.6 billion in 2021. But as Garena's cash flow dwindled over the last few quarters, Shopee's had to pivot to a new strategy emphasizing profitability and self-sufficiency. The company had to cut marketing expenses, reduce staff, and exit unprofitable markets (Europe, India, and some Latin American countries).So far, Shopee's strategy pivot has been positive. It reported a surprise positive adjusted EBITDA of $196 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. A year ago, it had a negative adjusted EBITDA of $878 million. Investors were pleasantly surprised by how quickly the turnaround occurred since the strategic shift only happened in the second quarter of 2022.Still, there were some negative impacts on the strategic pivot, and one of the major ones was the massive growth slowdown. For example, revenue grew by 32% in the latest quarter compared to 89% in the previous period. Worse, gross orders and gross merchandise value (GMV) were lower year over year.While investors will need a few more quarters to judge whether Shopee can resume its growth, they are probably more confident with the long-term sustainability of Shopee's business model after its recent profitable quarter.So are Sea's woes finally behind it?The short answer is not just yet.On the one hand, there is a hugely positive signal from the recent earnings with Shopee posting a surprise profit.Still, investors need to monitor the sustainability of Shopee's profitability over the next few quarters. Besides, we do not know whether Shopee can sustain its market share over time since it slashed marketing expenses and raised merchant fees.And while Shopee has shown signs of development, Garena's headwinds remain after it reported weaker user engagements and financials. The battle is not over for the gaming business until these trends reverse themselves.Overall, I think it's still too early to declare victory.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998642904,"gmtCreate":1660991511111,"gmtModify":1676536436206,"author":{"id":"4110596512684042","authorId":"4110596512684042","name":"PCTEO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12fd9611b5c3fca51f49f109082a3d6a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4110596512684042","idStr":"4110596512684042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy at opportunities&nbsp;","listText":"Buy at opportunities&nbsp;","text":"Buy at opportunities","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998642904","repostId":"1161973648","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161973648","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660961604,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161973648?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-20 10:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin: Black Swans Are Lurking","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161973648","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBitcoin's blow-off top at $25k on August 14th signifies the end of a reflexive rally, representing the \"return to normal\" stage of a bubble.We anticipate Bitcoin is entering \"phase 2\" of its fi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Bitcoin&#39;s blow-off top at $25k on August 14th signifies the end of a reflexive rally, representing the &#34;return to normal&#34; stage of a bubble.</li><li>We anticipate Bitcoin is entering &#34;phase 2&#34; of its first-ever bear market, which can decrease BTC by another 60% to 80%.</li><li>Tight monetary conditions, regulatory encroachment into crypto, pending collapses/insolvencies, and the spread of Monkeypox can push Bitcoin to $13k, $11k, or $8k - $5k by November 2022.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06049fcdc1faaaf8e98c02d34d25e737\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>rayisa</span></p><p><b>Bitcoin: This Time Is Different!</b></p><p>As opposed to the grassroots movement it once was, institutional fund flows primarily drove Bitcoin&#39;s (BTC-USD) most recent bull trend. In 2020, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 0 and provided over $2.3 trillionin loans to support the economy. This, combined with Covid-19 stimulus checks given directly to citizens, worked to funnel billions of excess liquidity into the crypto casino.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ad60d9dee720c7827a97c38a6feb675\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)</span></p><p>With Bitcoin&#39;s unraveling and dip below $20k, much of the magic surrounding cryptocurrencies has diminished. We believe the current bear market is forcing investors to realize numerous hard truths, including:</p><ol><li>Bitcoin&#39;s unsustainable growth rate,</li><li>Incoming regulations for Ethereum (ETH-USD) and DeFi,</li><li>The crypto market&#39;s <i>over-reliance</i> on loose monetary policy and a bullish stock market.</li></ol><p>After a violent rally from June 18th to August 15th, Bitcoin&#39;s all-time chart has one of the most bearish patterns I&#39;ve ever seen. To understand this, you must note that a backdrop of<i>favorable financial conditions</i>has characterized Bitcoin&#39;s entire existence. This includes 13 years with a Federal Funds rate between 0% - 2%, promoting a consistently bullish market for stocks.</p><p>Now, when faced with a<i>bearish</i>stock market and<i>high</i>rates, we expect Bitcoin&#39;s price will plummet.</p><p><b>Bitcoin All-Time Price Chart</b></p><p>The chart below compares Bitcoin vs. the NASDAQ-100 index (NDX). Observably, an increasing stock market has always supported Bitcoin:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbc9b759a44f7933564ded412fb9314\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)</span></p><p>Amidst such <i>extensively beneficial</i> market conditions, Bitcoin&#39;s price has swung bullishly between two massive hype cycles (firstly driven by retail from 2012 to 2017 and secondly by institutions from 2018 to 2021). These hype cycles are identified with the green and red boxes in the chart above.</p><ul><li>Bitcoin&#39;s hype cycles together form a decade-long 5-wave impulsive movement that peaks at $68k/BTC (identified with the orange lines).</li></ul><p>Therefore, the data shows that Bitcoin&#39;s growth rate has always been supported by a beneficial market that promoted increasing hype. This hype emerged as retail FOMO in 2017 and institutional FOMO in 2021. (<i>Up next could be nation-state FOMO. We aren&#39;t kidding. If there is another &#34;cryptocurrency cycle,&#34; it could see governments FOMO into Bitcoin in efforts to mitigate inflation</i>).</p><p>As monetary conditions tighten and stocks collapse, we believe Bitcoin&#39;s previous growth trend is no longer sustainable. Consequently, we expect Bitcoin will decline to <i>at least</i> $13.7k (precisely 80% below its all-time high) by November.</p><ul><li>Going forward, further downside in Bitcoin (and all other cryptocurrencies) can be powered by worsening economic conditions, increasing regulatory pressure, and the shattering of many deeply held cryptocurrency beliefs.</li><li>We expect new regulations will soon require Ethereum applications to collect user information.</li><li>We&#39;re also exceedingly worried about the ongoingDOJ probe into Tether(USDT-USD); we suspect more crypto exchange insolvencies are on the way, and we expect global Monkeypox cases will worsen into 2023.</li></ul><p><b>Bitcoin TA Shows Another 60% Decline</b></p><p>Technically speaking, Bitcoin has moved impressively bullish since bottoming at $17,637 on June 18th, 2022. However, indicators have since rapidly shifted<i>bearish,</i>prompting us to believe the rally is over. Currently, the most significant bearish indicators include:</p><ul><li>A 5-wave impulsive movement that ended with a blow-off top at $25k,</li><li>the daily MACD negatively crossing 0,</li><li>the daily/weekly trendlines remain untested.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/761c7bbe9eaa8132d4fbcd6b8fa72ed7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 1D (TradingView)</span></p><p>In our previous article, we identified Bitcoin was moving in a <i>reflexive rally</i> powered by<i>less bad</i>economic conditions and positive investor sentiment. Although we expected the bull trend to last until mid-September, recent government action against Tornado Cash appears to have killed the hype:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb3b89df931566e267cc18e520965fb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 1H (TradingView)</span></p><p>The chart below uses multi-timeframe trendlines to determine Bitcoin&#39;s speed, direction, and significant support levels. TrendSpider indicates Bitcoin is moving in an approximately 35-degree downtrend, projected to reach weekly support at $8k - $5k between October and November 2022. This projection is over 60% below Bitcoin&#39;s current price!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13a0514bb05bd64ce0bcc045a3283170\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 1D (TrendSpider)</span></p><p>Zooming out, we believe TrendSpider&#39;s weekly trendlines reflect Bitcoin&#39;s <i>real</i> logarithmic growth curves (as opposed to the fake curve often circulated). Accordingly, we expect Bitcoin to move like a &#34;bowling ball thrown out a window&#34; until reaching $10k psychological support or weekly trendline support between $8k - $5k.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/796db43ff5d73d88d492a35e626ae320\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 1W (TrendSpider)</span></p><p>Hence, Bitcoin&#39;s technicals are all signaling bearish. To conclude, we&#39;re planning for three possibilities to trade Bitcoin&#39;s bottom:</p><ol><li>The bottom is in, and Bitcoin will now resume its long-term bull trend.</li><li>Bitcoin will mirror previous cycles and bottom approximately 80% below its all-time high, located around $13.7k - $11k.</li><li>Fear caused by new cryptocurrency regulations and worsening financial conditions will push Bitcoin below $10k. In this scenario, we expect BTC to find support at its weekly trendlines between $8k - $5k.</li></ol><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4449d83f87efa2a1cd3cfb2cb066f6f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)</span></p><p><b>Bitcoin&#39;s First True Bear Market</b></p><p>By observing Bitcoin&#39;s lifetime of price action, we can see that Bitcoin&#39;s long-term bull trend has always been powered by hype (where investors allocate funds <i>in anticipation</i> of more investors entering crypto) as well as beneficial circumstances (including loose monetary policy, an increasing stock market, and lack of regulations). After over a decade of advantageous conditions, Bitcoin is now facing<i>the opposite</i>of each of these dynamics.</p><p>In our view, Bitcoin&#39;s recent 75% downtrend from November 2021 to June 2022 represents &#39;phase 1&#39; of a much larger bear market. In fact, we believe Bitcoin is currently entering its first-ever <i>real</i> bear market.</p><p>As shown in the chart below, the last two Bitcoin &#39;bear markets&#39; <i>weren&#39;t actually bear markets.</i> Instead, they were bull market corrections!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db68ad989673aafb983acbfdf6ef8dc5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)</span></p><p>At the time of writing, Bitcoin has yet to enter its <i>true</i> bear market territory. We believe Bitcoin&#39;s first bear market begins below $20k, upon which all of the most famous bull trend indicators will become invalid.</p><p>While Bitcoin&#39;s stock-to-flowmodel and logarithmic growth curvesare already broken, we expect Bitcoin&#39;s Pi Cycle indicator (shown below) is the next to break:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed4a896fd6b61d52a0f24867a6da507\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)</span></p><p><b>Incoming Black Swan Events</b></p><p>So far, we&#39;ve covered Bitcoin&#39;s bearish technicals and fundamentals. We also explained why we expect an impending crash will be Bitcoin&#39;s<i>worst ever</i>. Going forward, we&#39;re anticipating the following &#39;Black Swan&#39; events will power a violent downturn:</p><p><b>1) Stock Market Collapse</b></p><p>Despite the past 7-month downtrend, the NASDAQ-100 index is still<i>overvalued</i>relative to its long-term base-level trendline:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d58fcfab0b93b5fbc217eca0329f8f91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>NDX:USD - 1W (TradingView)</span></p><p>As shown above, the similarities between the Nasdaq&#39;s current structure to 2008 and 1999 are uncanny. If NDX is destined to crash like the dot-com bubble, this will decrease the index by another 64%.</p><p><b>2) Cryptocurrency Regulation</b></p><p>As previously stated, the US government sanctioned the Ethereum mixer application &#39;Tornado Cash&#39; on August 8th, 2022. As regulatory uncertainty has haunted cryptocurrencies for years, we believe the recent government action against Tornado Cash represents one of<i>many</i>attacks soon to come.</p><p>Furthermore, the Tornado Cash sanction proved that Ethereum is not censorship-resistant. This flies in the face of millions of ETH investors (including myself) who previously assumed Ethereum applications were immune to government censorship.</p><p>Therefore, we expect <i>increasing regulation</i> and the <i>relinquishment of previously held beliefs</i> will drive the prices of Ethereum and its DeFi economy much lower.</p><blockquote>Laura Shin&#39;s &#39;Unchained&#39; podcast episode with Dave Jevans, CEO of Cipher Trace, is the best source I&#39;ve found to discover incoming cryptocurrency regulations.</blockquote><p><b>3) Tether Collapse</b></p><p>The Tether stablecoin represents another dynamic that has haunted the crypto market for years. In 2018, two university professors released a 60-page report detailing how Tether used market manipulation tactics to boost Bitcoin&#39;s price during the 2017 rally.</p><p>Although the crypto market has ignored this controversy for years, the US Department of Justice has recently moved to re-open their investigation into Tether. As the crypto market&#39;s largest stablecoin (valued at $43 billion), it&#39;s reasonable to assume that a Tether bank fraud conviction would negatively affect cryptocurrency prices.</p><p><b>4) Exchange Insolvencies</b></p><p>&#34;Phase 1&#34; of Bitcoin&#39;s bear market (from $68k to $17k) saw numerous cryptocurrency lenders declare insolvency. During Phase 2 of the downtrend (which will bring Bitcoin below $20k), we believe more exchanges and lenders will declare insolvency/bankruptcy.</p><p>Notably, in a move similar to Celsius and Voyager&#39;s pre-insolvency actions, Crypto.com (CRO-USD) has recently decreased the rewards paid to its credit card holders. Although this doesn&#39;t<i>prove</i>anything, it&#39;s objectively not a good sign.</p><p><b>5) Monkeypox</b></p><p>Lastly, we believe the Monkeypox virus represents a significant &#39;black swan&#39; event that markets aren&#39;t pricing in. As of August 18th, 2022, there are 38,735 confirmed global Monkeypox cases and 2,446 suspected cases:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c26dd7ca82e31f91a6c9b4f244da256\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Cumulative Confirmed Monkeypox Cases (monkeypox.global.health)</span></p><p>Although it&#39;s unlikely that Monkeypox will spread as quickly as Covid-19, it is worth noting that cumulative international Monkeypox cases are currently at the same number as Covid-19 during February 2020:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51042d06277e56a3fa14ecf273febd78\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Covid-19 Cumulative Confirmed Cases (Our World In Data)</span></p><p>We anticipate Monkeypox will develop into a much larger issue as cases increase into 2023. Raising monkeypox cases could frighten many citizens, prompting them to seek vaccinations from a dwindling supply.</p><p><b>Short Trades</b></p><p>Currently, we&#39;re margin short Bitcoin with an entry at $24.2k, and we&#39;re short Ethereum at $1902. We&#39;re also short Uniswap (UNI-USD) and Curve Finance (CRV-USD), as we expect incoming cryptocurrency regulations will seriously damage these protocols.</p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p>Trends in macroeconomics and central bank policy support our bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Risks include any<i>hint</i>of dovishness from the Fed (which would rocket markets higher) and uncertainties surrounding the November 2022 Congressional elections. Markets may bounce if the Republicans win the majority in the House of Representatives. Alternatively, we expect a heavy dump if the Democrats win.</p><p>Additionally, investors should continue to expect each month&#39;s inflation print and economic data to affect prices heavily.</p><p><b>Key Takeaways</b></p><ul><li>After 13 years of beneficial financial conditions and two massive hype cycles, Bitcoin is poised for its biggest crash ever (its first<i>real</i>bear market).</li><li>We anticipate this downturn can push Bitcoin to $13k - $11k or to $8k - $5k.</li><li>Majorly detrimental events are brewing beneath the crypto market&#39;s surface, including regulatory encroachment, a worsening economy, poor financial conditions, and the spread of the Monkeypox virus.</li></ul><p><i>This article was written by Bitfreedom Research. </i><i>This document is for reference only.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin: Black Swans Are Lurking</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin: Black Swans Are Lurking\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-20 10:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535755-bitcoin-black-swans-lurking><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBitcoin's blow-off top at $25k on August 14th signifies the end of a reflexive rally, representing the \"return to normal\" stage of a bubble.We anticipate Bitcoin is entering \"phase 2\" of its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535755-bitcoin-black-swans-lurking\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535755-bitcoin-black-swans-lurking","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161973648","content_text":"SummaryBitcoin's blow-off top at $25k on August 14th signifies the end of a reflexive rally, representing the \"return to normal\" stage of a bubble.We anticipate Bitcoin is entering \"phase 2\" of its first-ever bear market, which can decrease BTC by another 60% to 80%.Tight monetary conditions, regulatory encroachment into crypto, pending collapses/insolvencies, and the spread of Monkeypox can push Bitcoin to $13k, $11k, or $8k - $5k by November 2022.rayisaBitcoin: This Time Is Different!As opposed to the grassroots movement it once was, institutional fund flows primarily drove Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) most recent bull trend. In 2020, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 0 and provided over $2.3 trillionin loans to support the economy. This, combined with Covid-19 stimulus checks given directly to citizens, worked to funnel billions of excess liquidity into the crypto casino.BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)With Bitcoin's unraveling and dip below $20k, much of the magic surrounding cryptocurrencies has diminished. We believe the current bear market is forcing investors to realize numerous hard truths, including:Bitcoin's unsustainable growth rate,Incoming regulations for Ethereum (ETH-USD) and DeFi,The crypto market's over-reliance on loose monetary policy and a bullish stock market.After a violent rally from June 18th to August 15th, Bitcoin's all-time chart has one of the most bearish patterns I've ever seen. To understand this, you must note that a backdrop offavorable financial conditionshas characterized Bitcoin's entire existence. This includes 13 years with a Federal Funds rate between 0% - 2%, promoting a consistently bullish market for stocks.Now, when faced with abearishstock market andhighrates, we expect Bitcoin's price will plummet.Bitcoin All-Time Price ChartThe chart below compares Bitcoin vs. the NASDAQ-100 index (NDX). Observably, an increasing stock market has always supported Bitcoin:BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)Amidst such extensively beneficial market conditions, Bitcoin's price has swung bullishly between two massive hype cycles (firstly driven by retail from 2012 to 2017 and secondly by institutions from 2018 to 2021). These hype cycles are identified with the green and red boxes in the chart above.Bitcoin's hype cycles together form a decade-long 5-wave impulsive movement that peaks at $68k/BTC (identified with the orange lines).Therefore, the data shows that Bitcoin's growth rate has always been supported by a beneficial market that promoted increasing hype. This hype emerged as retail FOMO in 2017 and institutional FOMO in 2021. (Up next could be nation-state FOMO. We aren't kidding. If there is another \"cryptocurrency cycle,\" it could see governments FOMO into Bitcoin in efforts to mitigate inflation).As monetary conditions tighten and stocks collapse, we believe Bitcoin's previous growth trend is no longer sustainable. Consequently, we expect Bitcoin will decline to at least $13.7k (precisely 80% below its all-time high) by November.Going forward, further downside in Bitcoin (and all other cryptocurrencies) can be powered by worsening economic conditions, increasing regulatory pressure, and the shattering of many deeply held cryptocurrency beliefs.We expect new regulations will soon require Ethereum applications to collect user information.We're also exceedingly worried about the ongoingDOJ probe into Tether(USDT-USD); we suspect more crypto exchange insolvencies are on the way, and we expect global Monkeypox cases will worsen into 2023.Bitcoin TA Shows Another 60% DeclineTechnically speaking, Bitcoin has moved impressively bullish since bottoming at $17,637 on June 18th, 2022. However, indicators have since rapidly shiftedbearish,prompting us to believe the rally is over. Currently, the most significant bearish indicators include:A 5-wave impulsive movement that ended with a blow-off top at $25k,the daily MACD negatively crossing 0,the daily/weekly trendlines remain untested.BTC:USD - 1D (TradingView)In our previous article, we identified Bitcoin was moving in a reflexive rally powered byless badeconomic conditions and positive investor sentiment. Although we expected the bull trend to last until mid-September, recent government action against Tornado Cash appears to have killed the hype:BTC:USD - 1H (TradingView)The chart below uses multi-timeframe trendlines to determine Bitcoin's speed, direction, and significant support levels. TrendSpider indicates Bitcoin is moving in an approximately 35-degree downtrend, projected to reach weekly support at $8k - $5k between October and November 2022. This projection is over 60% below Bitcoin's current price!BTC:USD - 1D (TrendSpider)Zooming out, we believe TrendSpider's weekly trendlines reflect Bitcoin's real logarithmic growth curves (as opposed to the fake curve often circulated). Accordingly, we expect Bitcoin to move like a \"bowling ball thrown out a window\" until reaching $10k psychological support or weekly trendline support between $8k - $5k.BTC:USD - 1W (TrendSpider)Hence, Bitcoin's technicals are all signaling bearish. To conclude, we're planning for three possibilities to trade Bitcoin's bottom:The bottom is in, and Bitcoin will now resume its long-term bull trend.Bitcoin will mirror previous cycles and bottom approximately 80% below its all-time high, located around $13.7k - $11k.Fear caused by new cryptocurrency regulations and worsening financial conditions will push Bitcoin below $10k. In this scenario, we expect BTC to find support at its weekly trendlines between $8k - $5k.BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)Bitcoin's First True Bear MarketBy observing Bitcoin's lifetime of price action, we can see that Bitcoin's long-term bull trend has always been powered by hype (where investors allocate funds in anticipation of more investors entering crypto) as well as beneficial circumstances (including loose monetary policy, an increasing stock market, and lack of regulations). After over a decade of advantageous conditions, Bitcoin is now facingthe oppositeof each of these dynamics.In our view, Bitcoin's recent 75% downtrend from November 2021 to June 2022 represents 'phase 1' of a much larger bear market. In fact, we believe Bitcoin is currently entering its first-ever real bear market.As shown in the chart below, the last two Bitcoin 'bear markets' weren't actually bear markets. Instead, they were bull market corrections!BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)At the time of writing, Bitcoin has yet to enter its true bear market territory. We believe Bitcoin's first bear market begins below $20k, upon which all of the most famous bull trend indicators will become invalid.While Bitcoin's stock-to-flowmodel and logarithmic growth curvesare already broken, we expect Bitcoin's Pi Cycle indicator (shown below) is the next to break:BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)Incoming Black Swan EventsSo far, we've covered Bitcoin's bearish technicals and fundamentals. We also explained why we expect an impending crash will be Bitcoin'sworst ever. Going forward, we're anticipating the following 'Black Swan' events will power a violent downturn:1) Stock Market CollapseDespite the past 7-month downtrend, the NASDAQ-100 index is stillovervaluedrelative to its long-term base-level trendline:NDX:USD - 1W (TradingView)As shown above, the similarities between the Nasdaq's current structure to 2008 and 1999 are uncanny. If NDX is destined to crash like the dot-com bubble, this will decrease the index by another 64%.2) Cryptocurrency RegulationAs previously stated, the US government sanctioned the Ethereum mixer application 'Tornado Cash' on August 8th, 2022. As regulatory uncertainty has haunted cryptocurrencies for years, we believe the recent government action against Tornado Cash represents one ofmanyattacks soon to come.Furthermore, the Tornado Cash sanction proved that Ethereum is not censorship-resistant. This flies in the face of millions of ETH investors (including myself) who previously assumed Ethereum applications were immune to government censorship.Therefore, we expect increasing regulation and the relinquishment of previously held beliefs will drive the prices of Ethereum and its DeFi economy much lower.Laura Shin's 'Unchained' podcast episode with Dave Jevans, CEO of Cipher Trace, is the best source I've found to discover incoming cryptocurrency regulations.3) Tether CollapseThe Tether stablecoin represents another dynamic that has haunted the crypto market for years. In 2018, two university professors released a 60-page report detailing how Tether used market manipulation tactics to boost Bitcoin's price during the 2017 rally.Although the crypto market has ignored this controversy for years, the US Department of Justice has recently moved to re-open their investigation into Tether. As the crypto market's largest stablecoin (valued at $43 billion), it's reasonable to assume that a Tether bank fraud conviction would negatively affect cryptocurrency prices.4) Exchange Insolvencies\"Phase 1\" of Bitcoin's bear market (from $68k to $17k) saw numerous cryptocurrency lenders declare insolvency. During Phase 2 of the downtrend (which will bring Bitcoin below $20k), we believe more exchanges and lenders will declare insolvency/bankruptcy.Notably, in a move similar to Celsius and Voyager's pre-insolvency actions, Crypto.com (CRO-USD) has recently decreased the rewards paid to its credit card holders. Although this doesn'tproveanything, it's objectively not a good sign.5) MonkeypoxLastly, we believe the Monkeypox virus represents a significant 'black swan' event that markets aren't pricing in. As of August 18th, 2022, there are 38,735 confirmed global Monkeypox cases and 2,446 suspected cases:Cumulative Confirmed Monkeypox Cases (monkeypox.global.health)Although it's unlikely that Monkeypox will spread as quickly as Covid-19, it is worth noting that cumulative international Monkeypox cases are currently at the same number as Covid-19 during February 2020:Covid-19 Cumulative Confirmed Cases (Our World In Data)We anticipate Monkeypox will develop into a much larger issue as cases increase into 2023. Raising monkeypox cases could frighten many citizens, prompting them to seek vaccinations from a dwindling supply.Short TradesCurrently, we're margin short Bitcoin with an entry at $24.2k, and we're short Ethereum at $1902. We're also short Uniswap (UNI-USD) and Curve Finance (CRV-USD), as we expect incoming cryptocurrency regulations will seriously damage these protocols.RisksTrends in macroeconomics and central bank policy support our bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Risks include anyhintof dovishness from the Fed (which would rocket markets higher) and uncertainties surrounding the November 2022 Congressional elections. Markets may bounce if the Republicans win the majority in the House of Representatives. Alternatively, we expect a heavy dump if the Democrats win.Additionally, investors should continue to expect each month's inflation print and economic data to affect prices heavily.Key TakeawaysAfter 13 years of beneficial financial conditions and two massive hype cycles, Bitcoin is poised for its biggest crash ever (its firstrealbear market).We anticipate this downturn can push Bitcoin to $13k - $11k or to $8k - $5k.Majorly detrimental events are brewing beneath the crypto market's surface, including regulatory encroachment, a worsening economy, poor financial conditions, and the spread of the Monkeypox virus.This article was written by Bitfreedom Research. This document is for reference only.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9,"MBTmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}