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saket

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- saketsaket
  ·2023-09-13
  $Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.(FFIE)$
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- saketsaket
  ·2023-08-25
  $Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.(FFIE)$
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- saketsaket
  ·2023-06-08
  $Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.(FFIE)$
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- saketsaket
  ·2023-06-08
  $Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.(FFIE)$
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- saketsaket
  ·2023-04-26
  Crazy
  First Republic Bank to Weigh Up to $100 Billion in Asset Sales
  Shares of the bank tumble 17.78% premarket on proposed sales, deposit slumpBuyers might be offered i
  First Republic Bank to Weigh Up to $100 Billion in Asset Sales
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- saketsaket
  ·2023-03-24
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- saketsaket
  ·2022-10-21
  Ok
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- saketsaket
  ·2022-10-05
  Okau
  QQQ: The Tech Crash, Where Is The Bottom (Technical Analysis)
  SummaryThe tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is down by over 33% YTD.The continuation of the tech crash to a 50-
  QQQ: The Tech Crash, Where Is The Bottom (Technical Analysis)
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- saketsaket
  ·2022-10-05
  Ok
  QQQ: The Tech Crash, Where Is The Bottom (Technical Analysis)
  SummaryThe tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is down by over 33% YTD.The continuation of the tech crash to a 50-
  QQQ: The Tech Crash, Where Is The Bottom (Technical Analysis)
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- saketsaket
  ·2022-10-05
  Thanks
  3 Stocks to Avoid This Week
  These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.
  3 Stocks to Avoid This Week
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Inc.(FFIE)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185079075782784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947946508,"gmtCreate":1682509942705,"gmtModify":1682509946756,"author":{"id":"4102558411634440","authorId":"4102558411634440","name":"saket","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/310d87e21becc392b55d1fb064bc5628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102558411634440","idStr":"4102558411634440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crazy","listText":"Crazy","text":"Crazy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947946508","repostId":"1158855261","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158855261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1682508440,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158855261?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-26 19:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"First Republic Bank to Weigh Up to $100 Billion in Asset Sales","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158855261","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Shares of the bank tumble 17.78% premarket on proposed sales, deposit slumpBuyers might be offered i","content":"<div>\n<p>Shares of the bank tumble 17.78% premarket on proposed sales, deposit slumpBuyers might be offered incentives to pay above-market ratesFirst Republic Bank is exploring divesting $50 billion to $100 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-25/first-republic-said-to-weigh-up-to-100-billion-in-asset-sales\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>First Republic Bank to Weigh Up to $100 Billion in Asset Sales</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ 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.h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFirst Republic Bank to Weigh Up to $100 Billion in Asset Sales\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-26 19:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-25/first-republic-said-to-weigh-up-to-100-billion-in-asset-sales><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shares of the bank tumble 17.78% premarket on proposed sales, deposit slumpBuyers might be offered incentives to pay above-market ratesFirst Republic Bank is exploring divesting $50 billion to $100 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-25/first-republic-said-to-weigh-up-to-100-billion-in-asset-sales\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FRCB":"第一共和银行"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-25/first-republic-said-to-weigh-up-to-100-billion-in-asset-sales","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158855261","content_text":"Shares of the bank tumble 17.78% premarket on proposed sales, deposit slumpBuyers might be offered incentives to pay above-market ratesFirst Republic Bank is exploring divesting $50 billion to $100 billion of assets as the beleaguered lender attempts to rescue itself from the turmoil that engulfed the industry last month.The sales, which include long-dated mortgages and securities, are aimed at reducing the mismatch between the bank’s assets and liabilities — one of the factors that has left First Republic teetering after a run on deposits in March, according to people familiar with the matter. Potential buyers, including large US banks, could receive warrants or preferred equity as an incentive to buy assets above their market value, one of the people said. A day after First Republic reported earnings that fell far short of analysts’ estimates, the full extent of the challenges facing the bank are dawning on investors. A key component of its prior success — the wealth-management business for ultra-rich clients — may have its wings clipped. And now it’s also facing the prospect of having to unload a large portion of its assets. Shares plummeted 49% to a record low on Tuesday. The lender is trying to shore up its balance sheet to avoid being seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and clear the path for a possible capital raise, the person said. It may need the US government to facilitate negotiations with some of the country’s largest banks to stabilize the lender as it executes its turnaround, the person added. That would be a much cheaper alternative than a failure of the company. In addition to selling assets, the bank also plans to focus on loans that can be sold on the secondary market, it said Monday. That’s a sharp departure from its old strategy of providing interest-only jumbo mortgages, a service that attracted legions of rich borrowers and helped build the company into a wealth-management giant.That business is now under pressure after dozens of advisers jumped to top rivals, including Morgan Stanley, UBS Group AG and Royal Bank of Canada. It has also left analysts concerned for the future of a once-prized business that attracted clients from wealthy enclaves across the US. First Republic had total assets of $233 billion as of March 31, including $173 billion of loans and $35 billion of investment securities, according to its first-quarter earnings report.An asset-liability mismatch can happen when interest rates rise, forcing banks to pay depositors a higher interest rate than what they charge borrowers. At First Republic, that problem is particularly significant because a large portion of its assets are single-family mortgages made when interest rates were at historic lows. Unloading those would help alleviate the mismatch.The problem: Loans made when rates were low are worth less now, which means First Republic would have to book a loss when it sells them unless it entices buyers to scoop them up at near face value. For that, buyers may demand some kind of sweetener such as warrants.Adding to the pressure is First Republic’s willingness over the years to entice rich homebuyers and property investors with rock-bottom rates for several years. Some of the mortgages even allowed borrowers to avoid repaying principal for a decade.First Republic reported a bigger-than-expected drop in deposits in the first quarter. The figure declined to $104.5 billion, well below the $137 billion average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The total included a $30 billion infusion from 11 of the largest US lenders. The bank on Monday confirmed it’s exploring strategic options. “We are working to restructure our balance sheet,” Chief Financial Officer Neal Holland said in a statement.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FRC":0.9,"FRCB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943445476,"gmtCreate":1679662024596,"gmtModify":1679662027936,"author":{"id":"4102558411634440","authorId":"4102558411634440","name":"saket","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/310d87e21becc392b55d1fb064bc5628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102558411634440","idStr":"4102558411634440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943445476","repostId":"2321935181","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981069409,"gmtCreate":1666347612401,"gmtModify":1676537744938,"author":{"id":"4102558411634440","authorId":"4102558411634440","name":"saket","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/310d87e21becc392b55d1fb064bc5628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102558411634440","idStr":"4102558411634440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981069409","repostId":"2276008122","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912769092,"gmtCreate":1664904657417,"gmtModify":1676537526391,"author":{"id":"4102558411634440","authorId":"4102558411634440","name":"saket","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/310d87e21becc392b55d1fb064bc5628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102558411634440","idStr":"4102558411634440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okau","listText":"Okau","text":"Okau","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912769092","repostId":"1177537827","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177537827","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664896501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177537827?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-04 23:15","market":"other","language":"en","title":"QQQ: The Tech Crash, Where Is The Bottom (Technical Analysis)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177537827","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is down by over 33% YTD.The continuation of the tech crash to a 50-","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is down by over 33% YTD.</li><li>The continuation of the tech crash to a 50-75% drawdown is unlikely.</li><li>These are not indications of a credit crunch (like in 2008) nor an irrational bubble burst (like in 2000).</li></ul><p><b>QQQ down by over 33% YTD</b></p><p>The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 (the tech sector is nearly 48% of the Index), as proxied by the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), is down by over 33% during the first 9 months of 2022. This would qualify as a tech crash, even though it doesn&#39;t feel like it sometimes. Here is the QQQ screenshot from Seeking Alpha:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b013f0ead59c064e8bd932a9591e9af8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>I mainly covered the S&amp;P500 (SPY) this year, but I did issue a sell recommendation on QQQ on September 6th. Even since then, QQQ is down by 9% - September was a difficult month, as I expected.</p><p>My sell recommendation on Sep 9th was based on the observation that tech stocks were still overvalued. Given the Fed&#39;s objective of a &#34;growth recession,&#34; it was very likely that we would get earnings downgrades and further valuation multiple contractions. I even recommended a sell on Apple (AAPL), the most heavily weighted stock in QQQ (almost 14% of the index), which decreased by over 12% since.</p><p>So, what&#39;s next for QQQ?</p><p>Surprisingly, even after the 33% crash, the longer-term bull market in Nasdaq 100 is technically still in place, based on the long-term trend. However, we are at the key support, the 200-week moving average, which held even during the March 2020 crash, (the black line in the graph below). In fact, we closed on Friday just below it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/081e6b7c2bf46e620a8d13393b092a29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Barchart</p><p>Thus, NASDAQ 100 is currently at the crucial level. So, what happens next for QQQ?</p><p>There are 3 possible scenarios as I see it:</p><ol><li>The tech crash continues with the 200wma breakdown, towards the 2008-like or the 2000-like 50%-75% crash.</li><li>The QQQ find the short-term support and rallies towards the 100wma (red line) in a bear market rally.</li><li>We are currently at a longer-term bottom for QQQ, and the new bull market is about to commence. Note, allow for additional drawdown up to 5% in this scenario as the bottom is processed.</li></ol><p>Let&#39;s evaluate the probability of scenario 1 or the crash continuation to over 50% total drawdown. Obviously, by ruling out the scenario 1, the implication would be that QQQ would rally from here, at least for a short period.</p><p><b>How likely is a 2000-like tech crash?</b></p><p>First, let look at the 2000-crash similarities. The 2000-crash was the dot-com bubble crash, where investors irrationally priced the dot-coms and related companies, many of which had no earnings. As a result, the forward P/E ratio for NASDAQ 100 was over 100 in 1999.</p><p>Today, the forward P/E ratio for NASDAQ is only 20. Also, last year the P/E ratio was &#34;just 34,&#34; which was expensive, but not at the point where we can say an irrational bubble. Furthermore, NASDAQ 100 is currently fairly priced. Thus, it is unlikely that we have the valuation based 2000-like bubble burst on our hands. Thus, I rule out the 2000-like continuation of the tech crash.</p><p><b>How likely is a 2008-like tech crash?</b></p><p>Second, let&#39;s evaluate to 2008-like similarities. The 2008 crash was essentially the credit crunch, primarily caused by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. In 2008, the housing bubble was at the heart of the problem, and financial institutions held the &#34;toxic waste&#34; assets on and off their balance sheets, and nobody could tell which financial institution would go bankrupt next.</p><p>The credit risk spreads today are low/moderate, which indicates little fear of the credit crunch. Here is the spread between the BBB rated corporate bonds yield and the 10Y Treasury Bond yield. The current value is 2.27%, which is only moderate based on the historical values, and it would have to spike to above 3% to become worrisome.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f2f6e8ed3e4d34e404b3902c81b744\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>Yes, the housing market is currently correcting, but we don&#39;t have the similar problem with the ARM mortgages and the subprime mortgages like in 2008. Thus, I don&#39;t anticipate the credit crunch like in 2008, and thus rule out the 2008-like tech crash continuation.</p><p><b>What else can cause a NASDAQ crash continuation?</b></p><p>Every crisis is different. Yet, all stock market selloffs always happen due to: 1) a liquidity shock, 2) a deep recession, or 3) a credit crunch. In addition to these variables, there is always the risk of an extraordinary geopolitical event, or other internationally related crisis.</p><p>The QQQ selloff YTD was due to the Fed-induced liquidity shock, as I warned during the first half of the year. Specifically, I warned that &#34;the Fed will talk the talk and walk the walk,&#34; and that the stock market was40-50% overvalued. Those were the reasons to sell stocks earlier this year, but most of them are priced in now.</p><p>As previously stated, we are likely at the peak Fed hawkishness. Additionally, the mild-to-modest upcoming recession, with the unemployment rate climbing to up to 4.4% is likely priced in, given the forward P/E ratio of 20. Yes, there could be some additional selling, but nothing like in 2000 or 2008.</p><p>In addition, as previously mentioned, it is unlikely that the Fed would allow additional domestic Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, and the current macro environment is nothing like in 2008.</p><p>Yet, the geopolitical situation is currently very tense with the war between Ukraine and Russia, and the probability of a nuclear war is definitely above 0%. Furthermore, the relentless rise of the U.S. dollar is increasing the probability of the 1997-like crisis &#34;somewhere.&#34;</p><p>However, any severe geopolitical escalation or a serious international financial crisis is likely to cause the Fed&#39;s dovish pivot, which could, in fact, cause a rally in stocks.</p><p><b>So, where is the bottom?</b></p><p>Thus, based on the current situation, it seems appropriate to shift from a bearish view on QQQ to neutral. Recommending to sell QQQ at this point after the 33% correction requires a high probability of an additional adverse event. At this point, there are no indications of: 1) a severe deep recession, 2) the 2008-like credit crunch, or 3) the 2000-like bubble burst.</p><p>The long-term technical support for QQQ seems to be at the current level (200wma), but I would stop short from calling it a definitive bottom. The technical breakdown below the support could cause further short selling by the trend-followers and stop-loss selling by the bottom pickers, which could push the QQQ price even lower over the short term.</p><p>Plus, while we anticipate the peak in Fed hawkishness, but we still do not have any indications of the Fed pivot from the Fed itself, neither the verified peak in the CPI inflation.</p><p>For these reasons, I would still not recommend buying QQQ. However, I do see the higher probability of next 15%+ move to the upside than to the downside (scenario 2). Thus, if the 200wma support decisively holds, I would be inclined to initiate a speculative QQQ long and reevaluate whether the definite bottom has been reached afterwards.</p><p>In fact, the bear market bottoms become obvious only sometime after they have been reached.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: The Tech Crash, Where Is The Bottom (Technical Analysis)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: The Tech Crash, Where Is The Bottom (Technical Analysis)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-04 23:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544450-qqq-the-tech-crash-where-is-the-bottom-technical-analysis><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is down by over 33% YTD.The continuation of the tech crash to a 50-75% drawdown is unlikely.These are not indications of a credit crunch (like in 2008) nor an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544450-qqq-the-tech-crash-where-is-the-bottom-technical-analysis\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544450-qqq-the-tech-crash-where-is-the-bottom-technical-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177537827","content_text":"SummaryThe tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is down by over 33% YTD.The continuation of the tech crash to a 50-75% drawdown is unlikely.These are not indications of a credit crunch (like in 2008) nor an irrational bubble burst (like in 2000).QQQ down by over 33% YTDThe tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 (the tech sector is nearly 48% of the Index), as proxied by the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), is down by over 33% during the first 9 months of 2022. This would qualify as a tech crash, even though it doesn't feel like it sometimes. Here is the QQQ screenshot from Seeking Alpha:Seeking AlphaI mainly covered the S&P500 (SPY) this year, but I did issue a sell recommendation on QQQ on September 6th. Even since then, QQQ is down by 9% - September was a difficult month, as I expected.My sell recommendation on Sep 9th was based on the observation that tech stocks were still overvalued. Given the Fed's objective of a \"growth recession,\" it was very likely that we would get earnings downgrades and further valuation multiple contractions. I even recommended a sell on Apple (AAPL), the most heavily weighted stock in QQQ (almost 14% of the index), which decreased by over 12% since.So, what's next for QQQ?Surprisingly, even after the 33% crash, the longer-term bull market in Nasdaq 100 is technically still in place, based on the long-term trend. However, we are at the key support, the 200-week moving average, which held even during the March 2020 crash, (the black line in the graph below). In fact, we closed on Friday just below it.BarchartThus, NASDAQ 100 is currently at the crucial level. So, what happens next for QQQ?There are 3 possible scenarios as I see it:The tech crash continues with the 200wma breakdown, towards the 2008-like or the 2000-like 50%-75% crash.The QQQ find the short-term support and rallies towards the 100wma (red line) in a bear market rally.We are currently at a longer-term bottom for QQQ, and the new bull market is about to commence. Note, allow for additional drawdown up to 5% in this scenario as the bottom is processed.Let's evaluate the probability of scenario 1 or the crash continuation to over 50% total drawdown. Obviously, by ruling out the scenario 1, the implication would be that QQQ would rally from here, at least for a short period.How likely is a 2000-like tech crash?First, let look at the 2000-crash similarities. The 2000-crash was the dot-com bubble crash, where investors irrationally priced the dot-coms and related companies, many of which had no earnings. As a result, the forward P/E ratio for NASDAQ 100 was over 100 in 1999.Today, the forward P/E ratio for NASDAQ is only 20. Also, last year the P/E ratio was \"just 34,\" which was expensive, but not at the point where we can say an irrational bubble. Furthermore, NASDAQ 100 is currently fairly priced. Thus, it is unlikely that we have the valuation based 2000-like bubble burst on our hands. Thus, I rule out the 2000-like continuation of the tech crash.How likely is a 2008-like tech crash?Second, let's evaluate to 2008-like similarities. The 2008 crash was essentially the credit crunch, primarily caused by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. In 2008, the housing bubble was at the heart of the problem, and financial institutions held the \"toxic waste\" assets on and off their balance sheets, and nobody could tell which financial institution would go bankrupt next.The credit risk spreads today are low/moderate, which indicates little fear of the credit crunch. Here is the spread between the BBB rated corporate bonds yield and the 10Y Treasury Bond yield. The current value is 2.27%, which is only moderate based on the historical values, and it would have to spike to above 3% to become worrisome.FREDYes, the housing market is currently correcting, but we don't have the similar problem with the ARM mortgages and the subprime mortgages like in 2008. Thus, I don't anticipate the credit crunch like in 2008, and thus rule out the 2008-like tech crash continuation.What else can cause a NASDAQ crash continuation?Every crisis is different. Yet, all stock market selloffs always happen due to: 1) a liquidity shock, 2) a deep recession, or 3) a credit crunch. In addition to these variables, there is always the risk of an extraordinary geopolitical event, or other internationally related crisis.The QQQ selloff YTD was due to the Fed-induced liquidity shock, as I warned during the first half of the year. Specifically, I warned that \"the Fed will talk the talk and walk the walk,\" and that the stock market was40-50% overvalued. Those were the reasons to sell stocks earlier this year, but most of them are priced in now.As previously stated, we are likely at the peak Fed hawkishness. Additionally, the mild-to-modest upcoming recession, with the unemployment rate climbing to up to 4.4% is likely priced in, given the forward P/E ratio of 20. Yes, there could be some additional selling, but nothing like in 2000 or 2008.In addition, as previously mentioned, it is unlikely that the Fed would allow additional domestic Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, and the current macro environment is nothing like in 2008.Yet, the geopolitical situation is currently very tense with the war between Ukraine and Russia, and the probability of a nuclear war is definitely above 0%. Furthermore, the relentless rise of the U.S. dollar is increasing the probability of the 1997-like crisis \"somewhere.\"However, any severe geopolitical escalation or a serious international financial crisis is likely to cause the Fed's dovish pivot, which could, in fact, cause a rally in stocks.So, where is the bottom?Thus, based on the current situation, it seems appropriate to shift from a bearish view on QQQ to neutral. Recommending to sell QQQ at this point after the 33% correction requires a high probability of an additional adverse event. At this point, there are no indications of: 1) a severe deep recession, 2) the 2008-like credit crunch, or 3) the 2000-like bubble burst.The long-term technical support for QQQ seems to be at the current level (200wma), but I would stop short from calling it a definitive bottom. The technical breakdown below the support could cause further short selling by the trend-followers and stop-loss selling by the bottom pickers, which could push the QQQ price even lower over the short term.Plus, while we anticipate the peak in Fed hawkishness, but we still do not have any indications of the Fed pivot from the Fed itself, neither the verified peak in the CPI inflation.For these reasons, I would still not recommend buying QQQ. However, I do see the higher probability of next 15%+ move to the upside than to the downside (scenario 2). Thus, if the 200wma support decisively holds, I would be inclined to initiate a speculative QQQ long and reevaluate whether the definite bottom has been reached afterwards.In fact, the bear market bottoms become obvious only sometime after they have been reached.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912760475,"gmtCreate":1664904623797,"gmtModify":1676537526384,"author":{"id":"4102558411634440","authorId":"4102558411634440","name":"saket","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/310d87e21becc392b55d1fb064bc5628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102558411634440","idStr":"4102558411634440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912760475","repostId":"1177537827","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177537827","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664896501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177537827?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-04 23:15","market":"other","language":"en","title":"QQQ: The Tech Crash, Where Is The Bottom (Technical Analysis)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177537827","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is down by over 33% YTD.The continuation of the tech crash to a 50-","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is down by over 33% YTD.</li><li>The continuation of the tech crash to a 50-75% drawdown is unlikely.</li><li>These are not indications of a credit crunch (like in 2008) nor an irrational bubble burst (like in 2000).</li></ul><p><b>QQQ down by over 33% YTD</b></p><p>The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 (the tech sector is nearly 48% of the Index), as proxied by the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), is down by over 33% during the first 9 months of 2022. This would qualify as a tech crash, even though it doesn&#39;t feel like it sometimes. Here is the QQQ screenshot from Seeking Alpha:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b013f0ead59c064e8bd932a9591e9af8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>I mainly covered the S&amp;P500 (SPY) this year, but I did issue a sell recommendation on QQQ on September 6th. Even since then, QQQ is down by 9% - September was a difficult month, as I expected.</p><p>My sell recommendation on Sep 9th was based on the observation that tech stocks were still overvalued. Given the Fed&#39;s objective of a &#34;growth recession,&#34; it was very likely that we would get earnings downgrades and further valuation multiple contractions. I even recommended a sell on Apple (AAPL), the most heavily weighted stock in QQQ (almost 14% of the index), which decreased by over 12% since.</p><p>So, what&#39;s next for QQQ?</p><p>Surprisingly, even after the 33% crash, the longer-term bull market in Nasdaq 100 is technically still in place, based on the long-term trend. However, we are at the key support, the 200-week moving average, which held even during the March 2020 crash, (the black line in the graph below). In fact, we closed on Friday just below it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/081e6b7c2bf46e620a8d13393b092a29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Barchart</p><p>Thus, NASDAQ 100 is currently at the crucial level. So, what happens next for QQQ?</p><p>There are 3 possible scenarios as I see it:</p><ol><li>The tech crash continues with the 200wma breakdown, towards the 2008-like or the 2000-like 50%-75% crash.</li><li>The QQQ find the short-term support and rallies towards the 100wma (red line) in a bear market rally.</li><li>We are currently at a longer-term bottom for QQQ, and the new bull market is about to commence. Note, allow for additional drawdown up to 5% in this scenario as the bottom is processed.</li></ol><p>Let&#39;s evaluate the probability of scenario 1 or the crash continuation to over 50% total drawdown. Obviously, by ruling out the scenario 1, the implication would be that QQQ would rally from here, at least for a short period.</p><p><b>How likely is a 2000-like tech crash?</b></p><p>First, let look at the 2000-crash similarities. The 2000-crash was the dot-com bubble crash, where investors irrationally priced the dot-coms and related companies, many of which had no earnings. As a result, the forward P/E ratio for NASDAQ 100 was over 100 in 1999.</p><p>Today, the forward P/E ratio for NASDAQ is only 20. Also, last year the P/E ratio was &#34;just 34,&#34; which was expensive, but not at the point where we can say an irrational bubble. Furthermore, NASDAQ 100 is currently fairly priced. Thus, it is unlikely that we have the valuation based 2000-like bubble burst on our hands. Thus, I rule out the 2000-like continuation of the tech crash.</p><p><b>How likely is a 2008-like tech crash?</b></p><p>Second, let&#39;s evaluate to 2008-like similarities. The 2008 crash was essentially the credit crunch, primarily caused by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. In 2008, the housing bubble was at the heart of the problem, and financial institutions held the &#34;toxic waste&#34; assets on and off their balance sheets, and nobody could tell which financial institution would go bankrupt next.</p><p>The credit risk spreads today are low/moderate, which indicates little fear of the credit crunch. Here is the spread between the BBB rated corporate bonds yield and the 10Y Treasury Bond yield. The current value is 2.27%, which is only moderate based on the historical values, and it would have to spike to above 3% to become worrisome.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f2f6e8ed3e4d34e404b3902c81b744\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>Yes, the housing market is currently correcting, but we don&#39;t have the similar problem with the ARM mortgages and the subprime mortgages like in 2008. Thus, I don&#39;t anticipate the credit crunch like in 2008, and thus rule out the 2008-like tech crash continuation.</p><p><b>What else can cause a NASDAQ crash continuation?</b></p><p>Every crisis is different. Yet, all stock market selloffs always happen due to: 1) a liquidity shock, 2) a deep recession, or 3) a credit crunch. In addition to these variables, there is always the risk of an extraordinary geopolitical event, or other internationally related crisis.</p><p>The QQQ selloff YTD was due to the Fed-induced liquidity shock, as I warned during the first half of the year. Specifically, I warned that &#34;the Fed will talk the talk and walk the walk,&#34; and that the stock market was40-50% overvalued. Those were the reasons to sell stocks earlier this year, but most of them are priced in now.</p><p>As previously stated, we are likely at the peak Fed hawkishness. Additionally, the mild-to-modest upcoming recession, with the unemployment rate climbing to up to 4.4% is likely priced in, given the forward P/E ratio of 20. Yes, there could be some additional selling, but nothing like in 2000 or 2008.</p><p>In addition, as previously mentioned, it is unlikely that the Fed would allow additional domestic Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, and the current macro environment is nothing like in 2008.</p><p>Yet, the geopolitical situation is currently very tense with the war between Ukraine and Russia, and the probability of a nuclear war is definitely above 0%. Furthermore, the relentless rise of the U.S. dollar is increasing the probability of the 1997-like crisis &#34;somewhere.&#34;</p><p>However, any severe geopolitical escalation or a serious international financial crisis is likely to cause the Fed&#39;s dovish pivot, which could, in fact, cause a rally in stocks.</p><p><b>So, where is the bottom?</b></p><p>Thus, based on the current situation, it seems appropriate to shift from a bearish view on QQQ to neutral. Recommending to sell QQQ at this point after the 33% correction requires a high probability of an additional adverse event. At this point, there are no indications of: 1) a severe deep recession, 2) the 2008-like credit crunch, or 3) the 2000-like bubble burst.</p><p>The long-term technical support for QQQ seems to be at the current level (200wma), but I would stop short from calling it a definitive bottom. The technical breakdown below the support could cause further short selling by the trend-followers and stop-loss selling by the bottom pickers, which could push the QQQ price even lower over the short term.</p><p>Plus, while we anticipate the peak in Fed hawkishness, but we still do not have any indications of the Fed pivot from the Fed itself, neither the verified peak in the CPI inflation.</p><p>For these reasons, I would still not recommend buying QQQ. However, I do see the higher probability of next 15%+ move to the upside than to the downside (scenario 2). Thus, if the 200wma support decisively holds, I would be inclined to initiate a speculative QQQ long and reevaluate whether the definite bottom has been reached afterwards.</p><p>In fact, the bear market bottoms become obvious only sometime after they have been reached.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: The Tech Crash, Where Is The Bottom (Technical Analysis)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: The Tech Crash, Where Is The Bottom (Technical Analysis)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-04 23:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544450-qqq-the-tech-crash-where-is-the-bottom-technical-analysis><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is down by over 33% YTD.The continuation of the tech crash to a 50-75% drawdown is unlikely.These are not indications of a credit crunch (like in 2008) nor an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544450-qqq-the-tech-crash-where-is-the-bottom-technical-analysis\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544450-qqq-the-tech-crash-where-is-the-bottom-technical-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177537827","content_text":"SummaryThe tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is down by over 33% YTD.The continuation of the tech crash to a 50-75% drawdown is unlikely.These are not indications of a credit crunch (like in 2008) nor an irrational bubble burst (like in 2000).QQQ down by over 33% YTDThe tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 (the tech sector is nearly 48% of the Index), as proxied by the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), is down by over 33% during the first 9 months of 2022. This would qualify as a tech crash, even though it doesn't feel like it sometimes. Here is the QQQ screenshot from Seeking Alpha:Seeking AlphaI mainly covered the S&P500 (SPY) this year, but I did issue a sell recommendation on QQQ on September 6th. Even since then, QQQ is down by 9% - September was a difficult month, as I expected.My sell recommendation on Sep 9th was based on the observation that tech stocks were still overvalued. Given the Fed's objective of a \"growth recession,\" it was very likely that we would get earnings downgrades and further valuation multiple contractions. I even recommended a sell on Apple (AAPL), the most heavily weighted stock in QQQ (almost 14% of the index), which decreased by over 12% since.So, what's next for QQQ?Surprisingly, even after the 33% crash, the longer-term bull market in Nasdaq 100 is technically still in place, based on the long-term trend. However, we are at the key support, the 200-week moving average, which held even during the March 2020 crash, (the black line in the graph below). In fact, we closed on Friday just below it.BarchartThus, NASDAQ 100 is currently at the crucial level. So, what happens next for QQQ?There are 3 possible scenarios as I see it:The tech crash continues with the 200wma breakdown, towards the 2008-like or the 2000-like 50%-75% crash.The QQQ find the short-term support and rallies towards the 100wma (red line) in a bear market rally.We are currently at a longer-term bottom for QQQ, and the new bull market is about to commence. Note, allow for additional drawdown up to 5% in this scenario as the bottom is processed.Let's evaluate the probability of scenario 1 or the crash continuation to over 50% total drawdown. Obviously, by ruling out the scenario 1, the implication would be that QQQ would rally from here, at least for a short period.How likely is a 2000-like tech crash?First, let look at the 2000-crash similarities. The 2000-crash was the dot-com bubble crash, where investors irrationally priced the dot-coms and related companies, many of which had no earnings. As a result, the forward P/E ratio for NASDAQ 100 was over 100 in 1999.Today, the forward P/E ratio for NASDAQ is only 20. Also, last year the P/E ratio was \"just 34,\" which was expensive, but not at the point where we can say an irrational bubble. Furthermore, NASDAQ 100 is currently fairly priced. Thus, it is unlikely that we have the valuation based 2000-like bubble burst on our hands. Thus, I rule out the 2000-like continuation of the tech crash.How likely is a 2008-like tech crash?Second, let's evaluate to 2008-like similarities. The 2008 crash was essentially the credit crunch, primarily caused by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. In 2008, the housing bubble was at the heart of the problem, and financial institutions held the \"toxic waste\" assets on and off their balance sheets, and nobody could tell which financial institution would go bankrupt next.The credit risk spreads today are low/moderate, which indicates little fear of the credit crunch. Here is the spread between the BBB rated corporate bonds yield and the 10Y Treasury Bond yield. The current value is 2.27%, which is only moderate based on the historical values, and it would have to spike to above 3% to become worrisome.FREDYes, the housing market is currently correcting, but we don't have the similar problem with the ARM mortgages and the subprime mortgages like in 2008. Thus, I don't anticipate the credit crunch like in 2008, and thus rule out the 2008-like tech crash continuation.What else can cause a NASDAQ crash continuation?Every crisis is different. Yet, all stock market selloffs always happen due to: 1) a liquidity shock, 2) a deep recession, or 3) a credit crunch. In addition to these variables, there is always the risk of an extraordinary geopolitical event, or other internationally related crisis.The QQQ selloff YTD was due to the Fed-induced liquidity shock, as I warned during the first half of the year. Specifically, I warned that \"the Fed will talk the talk and walk the walk,\" and that the stock market was40-50% overvalued. Those were the reasons to sell stocks earlier this year, but most of them are priced in now.As previously stated, we are likely at the peak Fed hawkishness. Additionally, the mild-to-modest upcoming recession, with the unemployment rate climbing to up to 4.4% is likely priced in, given the forward P/E ratio of 20. Yes, there could be some additional selling, but nothing like in 2000 or 2008.In addition, as previously mentioned, it is unlikely that the Fed would allow additional domestic Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, and the current macro environment is nothing like in 2008.Yet, the geopolitical situation is currently very tense with the war between Ukraine and Russia, and the probability of a nuclear war is definitely above 0%. Furthermore, the relentless rise of the U.S. dollar is increasing the probability of the 1997-like crisis \"somewhere.\"However, any severe geopolitical escalation or a serious international financial crisis is likely to cause the Fed's dovish pivot, which could, in fact, cause a rally in stocks.So, where is the bottom?Thus, based on the current situation, it seems appropriate to shift from a bearish view on QQQ to neutral. Recommending to sell QQQ at this point after the 33% correction requires a high probability of an additional adverse event. At this point, there are no indications of: 1) a severe deep recession, 2) the 2008-like credit crunch, or 3) the 2000-like bubble burst.The long-term technical support for QQQ seems to be at the current level (200wma), but I would stop short from calling it a definitive bottom. The technical breakdown below the support could cause further short selling by the trend-followers and stop-loss selling by the bottom pickers, which could push the QQQ price even lower over the short term.Plus, while we anticipate the peak in Fed hawkishness, but we still do not have any indications of the Fed pivot from the Fed itself, neither the verified peak in the CPI inflation.For these reasons, I would still not recommend buying QQQ. However, I do see the higher probability of next 15%+ move to the upside than to the downside (scenario 2). Thus, if the 200wma support decisively holds, I would be inclined to initiate a speculative QQQ long and reevaluate whether the definite bottom has been reached afterwards.In fact, the bear market bottoms become obvious only sometime after they have been reached.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912760265,"gmtCreate":1664904604057,"gmtModify":1676537526375,"author":{"id":"4102558411634440","authorId":"4102558411634440","name":"saket","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/310d87e21becc392b55d1fb064bc5628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102558411634440","idStr":"4102558411634440"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912760265","repostId":"2272199820","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2272199820","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664896561,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272199820?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-04 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272199820","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors can't seem to catch a break these days. The \"three stocks to avoid\" in my column last week that I thought were going to lose to the market -- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Rite Aid, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/02/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-04 23:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/02/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors can't seem to catch a break these days. The \"three stocks to avoid\" in my column last week that I thought were going to lose to the market -- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Rite Aid, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/02/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GFI":"金田","AAPL":"苹果","CAG":"康尼格拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/02/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272199820","content_text":"Investors can't seem to catch a break these days. The \"three stocks to avoid\" in my column last week that I thought were going to lose to the market -- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Rite Aid, and Lennar -- fell 6%, 29%, and 3%, respectively, averaging out to a 12.7% decline.The S&P 500 experienced a 2.9% move lower, so I was correct. I have been right in 32 of the past 50 weeks, or 64% of the time.Now let's look at the week ahead. I see Apple, Conagra Brands, and Gold Fields as stocks you might want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.1. AppleThe country's most valuable company by market cap -- the only one currently perched above $2 trillion in value -- proved mortal last week. The consumer tech giant tumbled 8%, a big drop for a titan that was previously holding up well against the correcting market. Apple is finally trading closer to its 52-week low than its high.The new iPhone 14 may have generated some buzz when it was unveiled a few weeks ago, but consumers have tired of annual upgrade cycles for smartphones. The incremental improvements are nice, but they may not be enough to woo shoppers who are already clutching their savings harder than they have in a long time.There was a notable analyst downgrade last week. Wamsi Mohan at Bank of America thinks the global climate of inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical conflict will weigh on the previously waterproof Apple stock. As a company with heavy volume outside the U.S. market, it's worth noting that the strong dollar will eat into reported revenue from those overseas transactions. There was also a Bloomberg story reporting that Apple is asking suppliers to pare back iPhone 14 production in light of uninspiring global demand.Is Apple overvalued at 23 times trailing earnings? Apple is a company that seems to have one good fiscal year followed by two years of single-digit and sometimes even negative revenue growth. It could bounce back after last week's setback, but when I see all those wireless company ads pitching iPhones for practically nothing, I see a behemoth behind an aspirational brand that could be in trouble.2. Conagra BrandsInstinctively, you don't want to bet against Conagra Brands. It's the company that stocks supermarket shelves with Duncan Hines cake mix, Slim Jim jerky, and Hunt's ketchup. Even in a recession, we have to eat. The problem for a king of brands is that rising food prices are probably sending shoppers to lower-margin house brands. Why buy Conagra's Pam or Reddi-Wip when the store-brand version of the cooking spray or whipped cream is easier on the pocket?Conagra reports financial results for its fiscal first quarter on Thursday morning. Analysts aren't holding out for much, and it's not as if Conagra is an upbeat earnings surprise machine after beating Wall Street profit targets just once over the past three reports. The market sees Conagra growing its revenue by less than 5% this fiscal year, with earnings per share rising even less than that. Sales are expected to slow to just 1% growth next fiscal year. The 3.8% yield should provide some support, but it's not exactly the safe haven it plays itself out to be.3. Gold FieldsSeptember was brutal. It was the market's worst month since March 2020. It was also the worst September -- a month that has historically been challenging -- in 20 years. The bear market may not be over, but it wouldn't surprise me if there was at least a small bounce early in October. This call finds me eyeing Gold Fields.I'm not an expert on South African gold mining stocks, but I saw what happened last week. As most stocks tumbled, precious metals proved shiny. Half of the 10 largest stocks to gain at least 10% last week were gold miners, and Gold Fields commands the largest market of the five stocks on that list. The fundamentals for Gold Fields are fine, and it's in the process of gobbling up a smaller player to expand its global footprint. However, I needed to find a sector that could slide at the expense of a market rally, and tag, you're it, Gold Fields.It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Apple, Conagra, and Gold Fields this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"GFI":0.9,"CAG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}