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singsongone 1n

关注科技股分享选择逻辑，关注美港股

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- singsongone 1nsingsongone 1n
  ·04-03 20:37
  Why did HIMS move recently?
  Find out more here: Why did HIMS move recently? Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) stock has experienced significant volatility recently, primarily driven by a major strategic partnership announcement, subsequent analyst reactions, and a newly disclosed cybersecurity incident. The stock surged over 40% on March 9th following news of a deal with Novo Nordisk but has since given back some gains amid mixed analyst views and negative news flow.2429
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  Why did HIMS move recently?
- singsongone 1nsingsongone 1n
  ·02-09
  must win
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- singsongone 1nsingsongone 1n
  ·01-23
  $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$
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- singsongone 1nsingsongone 1n
  ·01-23
  $ENPH 20260130 35.5 PUT$
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- singsongone 1nsingsongone 1n
  ·01-23
  $比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)$ $3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$
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- singsongone 1nsingsongone 1n
  ·01-23
  $UOB MB eCW260730(HIQW.SI)$ [得意] [得意] [得意]
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- singsongone 1nsingsongone 1n
  ·01-23
  $UOB MB eCW260730(HIQW.SI)$ $MSCI台指主连(TWmain)$ $VinFast Auto(VFS)$ [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]
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- singsongone 1nsingsongone 1n
  ·01-14
  $WEBULL 10/04/2030(TO(BULLW)$
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- singsongone 1nsingsongone 1n
  ·01-08
  $拼多多(PDD)$ $拼多多(PDD)$
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- singsongone 1nsingsongone 1n
  ·01-04
  $XIC.HK 20260226 7.00 CALL$
  Guojin Securities: After the highest single-year increase in nearly 46 years, how do you think of the trend of gold?
  国金证券主要观点如下：以史为鉴，当前黄金“超涨”了吗?即便已经连续三年显著增持，目前全球央行对黄金仍然偏低配。国金证券认为，美元信用褪色的贬值交易下，黄金作为稀缺的无主权信用背书的货币资产，价值重估难言结束，金价已经“失锚”。当金价技术性回调时，央行和主权基金的购金预期将对回调空间和持续性产生约束。
  Guojin Securities: After the highest single-year increase in nearly 46 years, how do you think of the trend of gold?
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1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"Why did HIMS move recently?","htmlText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/gpt/share/46573d1b7df0494e999477e0a3605660?utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=114e4994c175f778ded75892c7c541b1&amp;invite=S8N122&amp;lang=en_US\">Why did HIMS move recently?</a> Hims &amp; Hers Health (HIMS) stock has experienced significant volatility recently, primarily driven by a major strategic partnership announcement, subsequent analyst reactions, and a newly disclosed cybersecurity incident. The stock surged over 40% on March 9th following news of a deal with Novo Nordisk but has since given back some gains amid mixed analyst views and negative news flow.2429","listText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/gpt/share/46573d1b7df0494e999477e0a3605660?utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=114e4994c175f778ded75892c7c541b1&amp;invite=S8N122&amp;lang=en_US\">Why did HIMS move recently?</a> Hims &amp; Hers Health (HIMS) stock has experienced significant volatility recently, primarily driven by a major strategic partnership announcement, subsequent analyst reactions, and a newly disclosed cybersecurity incident. The stock surged over 40% on March 9th following news of a deal with Novo Nordisk but has since given back some gains amid mixed analyst views and negative news flow.2429","text":"Find out more here: Why did HIMS move recently? Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) stock has experienced significant volatility recently, primarily driven by a major strategic partnership announcement, subsequent analyst reactions, and a newly disclosed cybersecurity incident. The stock surged over 40% on March 9th following news of a deal with Novo Nordisk but has since given back some gains amid mixed analyst views and negative news flow.2429","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/549678338008112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":530909999523312,"gmtCreate":1770638287652,"gmtModify":1770638291501,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"must win","listText":"must win","text":"must win","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/530909999523312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":524841671762048,"gmtCreate":1769161084916,"gmtModify":1769161868846,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVO\">$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVO\">$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/524841671762048","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"vote":{"id":5234,"gmtBegin":1769161084914,"gmtEnd":1769765863780,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"这个股票值得买吗","choices":[{"id":18065,"sort":1,"name":"值得","userSize":5,"voted":false},{"id":18066,"sort":2,"name":"不值得","userSize":1,"voted":false},{"id":18067,"sort":3,"name":"路过","userSize":0,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":524832443319160,"gmtCreate":1769158854118,"gmtModify":1769158856324,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/ENPH 20260130 35.5 PUT\">$ENPH 20260130 35.5 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/ENPH 20260130 35.5 PUT\">$ENPH 20260130 35.5 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$ENPH 20260130 35.5 PUT$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/524832443319160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":524821549196216,"gmtCreate":1769156278268,"gmtModify":1769157159642,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IBIT\">$比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; 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<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ $拼多多(PDD)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25dfd000a709aeb9686881d5ba1fbbb2","width":"336","height":"552"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/519552460374488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":518067100934800,"gmtCreate":1767504240409,"gmtModify":1767504678546,"author":{"id":"4100931252200150","authorId":"4100931252200150","name":"singsongone 1n","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1d046546b1fe9fd807628b80c78f069","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4100931252200150","idStr":"4100931252200150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XIC.HK 20260226 7.00 CALL\">$XIC.HK 20260226 7.00 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XIC.HK 20260226 7.00 CALL\">$XIC.HK 20260226 7.00 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$XIC.HK 20260226 7.00 CALL$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/518067100934800","repostId":"2600017238","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2600017238","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767482210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2600017238?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-01-04 07:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Guojin Securities: After the highest single-year increase in nearly 46 years, how do you think of the trend of gold?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2600017238","media":"智通财经","summary":"国金证券主要观点如下：以史为鉴，当前黄金“超涨”了吗?即便已经连续三年显著增持，目前全球央行对黄金仍然偏低配。国金证券认为，美元信用褪色的贬值交易下，黄金作为稀缺的无主权信用背书的货币资产，价值重估难言结束，金价已经“失锚”。当金价技术性回调时，央行和主权基金的购金预期将对回调空间和持续性产生约束。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Sinolink Securities</a>According to a research report released, although the pace of gold purchase by the central bank slows down in 2025, the influx of speculative funds pushes the price of gold higher. The short-term correction is mainly driven by emotional and technical factors, while the core supporting logic of global stagflation, chaotic order and monetization of US deficit remains unchanged. Looking ahead to 2026, when the market's pricing logic of \"AI unknown\" has not changed, the lack of order remains a favorable environment for gold. When AI bubble and gold form a \"dumbbell\", gold, as the insurance of AI positions, has realized the value of highlight moments. As a narrative asset with both \"gold-like\" attributes and AI power, silver has higher staged flexibility. But once the AI narrative becomes clear, the highlight moment of gold may end, and the silver narrative of \"benefiting from both ends\" may also return to rationality.</p><p>The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:</p><p><strong>Taking history as a mirror, is the current gold \"over-rising\"?</strong></p><p><strong>I. Looking back at the history of gold price, the stages with strong reference are World War II and 1970s</strong></p><p>After the stock market crash in 1929, the United States fell into the Great Depression, and a popular run on gold brought the banking system to the brink of collapse. Dollar issuance under the gold standard must be linked to gold reserves, which limited the government's ability to solve problems by issuing currency, banks failed in large numbers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>Massive unemployment. Therefore, after Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933, it was announced that all banks in the country must stop gold trading and nationalize gold.</p><p>After the outbreak of World War II, the U.S. fiscal deficit rate once rose to 27%, and the Federal Reserve stabilized the market interest rate of the latter through unlimited treasury bill purchases. As a result of this measure, the total amount of base money in the United States increased by 149 percent from August 1939 to August 1948. Meanwhile, dollar-denominated gold rose 123% over the same period.</p><p>During the Bretton Woods system, the price of gold was fixed at $35/oz. However, after World War II, the economy of the United States took off, and international trade was settled in US dollars. Due to the continuous economic expansion, there were more and more US dollars, which led to the rapid increase of inflation in the United States, and the continuous deficit of the balance of payments, which had to be made up by issuing currency, which led to the further aggravation of inflation and the collapse of US dollar credit.</p><p>Since the 1970s, the world began to run on gold, and the gold reserves of the United States have decreased. The United States is worried that it cannot continue to support the exchange commitment between the US dollar and gold. With the collapse of the Brinton Woods system, the price of gold changed from a fixed price to a floating price again. From 1973 to 1980, gold soared from $35 to $850, a 24-fold increase. It wasn't until the violent rate hike of the Volcker era in 1980 that gold really peaked.</p><p><strong>Second, in the first decade of the 21st century, gold ushered in a new round of bull market</strong></p><p>Behind it is the catalysis of a series of events such as the \"911\" incident, inflation after the rapid development of the US economy, the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. With the suppression of the European debt crisis and the gradual recovery of the US economy, gold fell into a five-year bear market after 2011.</p><p>In the 17 years since the financial crisis broke out, the average annual federal fiscal deficit rate in the United States has reached 6.3%. Even excluding 2020 and 2021 under the epidemic environment, the average deficit rate is as high as 5.4%, much higher than the average level of 1.7% from 1950s to before the financial crisis. The economic growth model with fiscal overdraft as the core driving force is the core reason for the continuous depreciation of the US dollar relative to gold. After the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022, the technical default of the United States on Russia's $300 billion foreign reserves marked a new stage of decline in the credit and influence of the US dollar. Represented by the People's Bank of China, it hoarded gold while reducing its holdings of US debt.</p><p><strong>Third, this round of gold bull market has no significant signs of overinflation</strong></p><p>If the United States started deficit monetization in 2008 as the starting point, the price of gold has doubled by 5.7 times so far; If the United States technically defaults on Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022 as a starting point, the price of gold has doubled 2.4 times so far. Compared with the 24-fold increase in gold price in 1970s, this round of gold bull market shows no significant signs of overinflation.</p><p>The opposite of gold is dollar credit. In the long run, the upward trend of gold price is positively correlated with the size of U.S. debt. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that the ratio of total U.S. federal debt held by the public to U.S. GDP will rise to 118.5% by 2035 from 97.8% in 2025, surpassing the high at the end of World War II. There is still room for imagination in a gold bull market. Unless in this process, AI technology can bring an overall improvement in productivity of various industries from the organizational and architectural level, and lead the United States to get out of stagflation and improve economic and fiscal efficiency, then it is a signal that the gold bull market will end.</p><p><strong>From the financial level, is the process of the central bank and the market buying more gold coming to an end?</strong></p><p><strong>First, the central bank's gold purchase: the pace slows down rather than ends</strong></p><p>Against the background of global political multipolarity, the declining geopolitical influence of the United States and the increasing debt vigilance of developed economies such as the United States and Europe, geopolitical powers (China, Russia, India, etc.), traditional neutral countries (Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and Russia-Ukraine frontier countries (Poland, Hungary, etc.) have gradually increased their gold reserves in the past three years. The proportion of \"gold purchased by the central bank\" in gold investment demand once rose from 15% in the first quarter of 2022 to a high of 54% in the fourth quarter of 2024.</p><p>Even though it has significantly increased its holdings for three consecutive years, the global central banks are still underallocated to gold. According to the World Bank data, gold reserves will account for about 22% of the global central bank reserves in 2024, an increase of 7 percentage points from three years ago, but there is still a gap compared with the important turning points of geopolitical landscape in history. It was 29 percent at the end of the Cold War in 1990 and 58 percent at the end of Great Stagflation in 1980. If the proportion of gold reserves held by the central bank returns to the level of 1990, there will still be 7% room for improvement, corresponding to about 3,400 tons of gold purchase demand.</p><p>According to the results of the World Gold Council's survey of central bank gold reserves in 2025, 76% of the central banks surveyed said that the proportion of gold reserves would continue to \"Moderately higher\" in the next five years (46% in 2022, 62% in 2023 and 69% in 2024). The performance of gold during the crisis, the diversification of portfolio and the demand to hedge against inflation are the core reasons for their increase in gold holdings.</p><p>Guojin Securities believes that under the depreciation transaction of the fading credit of the US dollar, the revaluation of gold, as a scarce monetary asset without sovereign credit endorsement, is hard to say, and the price of gold has \"lost its anchor\". In this process, the central bank's demand for gold purchase has not weakened. In the short term, although the amount of gold purchase is not as fanatic as the market funds, it will become an important chassis force of gold price. When the gold price is technically corrected, the gold purchase expectations of the central bank and sovereign funds will constrain the space and persistence of the correction.</p><p><strong>2. Market funds: the demand for portfolio optimization and the demand for hedging AI narrative are still there</strong></p><p>For investment institutions, the long-term value of gold lies in its low pullback/retracement and low correlation with traditional stock and bond assets, which is an indispensable hedging tool in the allocation portfolio of large assets.</p><p>Although large asset allocation portfolios such as risk parity strategy portfolio and Markowitz-mean variance strategy portfolio have certain exposure to gold, there are still some non-institutional investors and traditional stock-bond strategy portfolios that have not set foot in gold, because stock-bond hedging has been effective for a long time in the past, and bonds are enough to disperse the volatility risk of US stocks. In the 40 years before 2022, the world as a whole has experienced a dividend era with falling interest rates and cooperation among superpowers. Especially after 2008, major central banks such as the United States, Europe and Japan have maintained extremely loose monetary policies for many years. However, since 2022, factors such as the global pandemic, populist politics in the West, interest rate and inflation environment have made great changes in the global financial market.</p><p>A persistently high inflationary environment can largely undermine the value of government bonds as a portfolio diversifier. Nearly 50 years of historical experience shows that when the core inflation level in the United States is lower than 2.5%, the correlation between U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds is generally negative (that is, allocating stocks and bonds at the same time can effectively spread risks), but when the core inflation is higher than 2.5%, this stock-bond hedging is on the verge of failure. The positive correlation between U.S. equities and bonds remains near its nearly 27-year high this year, highlighting the need for alternative assets as a tool for diversified allocation. Given that gold has historically had a low correlation with many traditional asset classes, allocating gold strategically can help improve the return-risk-value ratio of various portfolios across a variety of market cycles. Global gold ETF holdings have increased by 20% over the past year, and strong investment demand may not only be pricing in Fed rate cut expectations, but also a signal that traditional portfolio strategies are changing.</p><p>For trading funds, the demand for overweight of gold still exists. On the one hand, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle has not yet finished, and the market pricing will still land for 2-3 interest rate cuts next year. The downward expectation of the real interest rate may drive the purchase of market funds represented by gold ETFs. On the other hand, the dumbbell strategy of \"doing more AI + doing more gold\" is a betting on both ends of the next stage of American national fortunes. When the AI bubble reaches the second half, the \"hedging\" attribute of gold is expected to increase.</p><p><strong>Gold: Pricing Perspective of Current Money and Credit VS. Price Comparison Perspective with US Financial Assets</strong></p><p>Under the monetary credit system, if the global dollar currency/global gold central bank reserve is used as the representative of global dollar gold, then the dollar credit implied by the current gold pricing of about 4,000 dollars per ounce is already lower than that when the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971. However, if you look at it from another perspective, compared with the financial assets in the United States, the current market value of gold/the market value of stocks and bonds in the United States is just at the historical low near 1971.</p><p><strong>Risk warning:</strong>The availability of data is limited, and there is lag in public data; The pace of AI commercialization has accelerated, recharging US dollar credit; There is a bias in the understanding of the reconstruction of the international order.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Guojin Securities: After the highest single-year increase in nearly 46 years, how do you think of the trend of gold?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGuojin Securities: After the highest single-year increase in nearly 46 years, how do you think of the trend of gold?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-01-04 07:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Sinolink Securities</a>According to a research report released, although the pace of gold purchase by the central bank slows down in 2025, the influx of speculative funds pushes the price of gold higher. The short-term correction is mainly driven by emotional and technical factors, while the core supporting logic of global stagflation, chaotic order and monetization of US deficit remains unchanged. Looking ahead to 2026, when the market's pricing logic of \"AI unknown\" has not changed, the lack of order remains a favorable environment for gold. When AI bubble and gold form a \"dumbbell\", gold, as the insurance of AI positions, has realized the value of highlight moments. As a narrative asset with both \"gold-like\" attributes and AI power, silver has higher staged flexibility. But once the AI narrative becomes clear, the highlight moment of gold may end, and the silver narrative of \"benefiting from both ends\" may also return to rationality.</p><p>The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:</p><p><strong>Taking history as a mirror, is the current gold \"over-rising\"?</strong></p><p><strong>I. Looking back at the history of gold price, the stages with strong reference are World War II and 1970s</strong></p><p>After the stock market crash in 1929, the United States fell into the Great Depression, and a popular run on gold brought the banking system to the brink of collapse. Dollar issuance under the gold standard must be linked to gold reserves, which limited the government's ability to solve problems by issuing currency, banks failed in large numbers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>Massive unemployment. Therefore, after Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933, it was announced that all banks in the country must stop gold trading and nationalize gold.</p><p>After the outbreak of World War II, the U.S. fiscal deficit rate once rose to 27%, and the Federal Reserve stabilized the market interest rate of the latter through unlimited treasury bill purchases. As a result of this measure, the total amount of base money in the United States increased by 149 percent from August 1939 to August 1948. Meanwhile, dollar-denominated gold rose 123% over the same period.</p><p>During the Bretton Woods system, the price of gold was fixed at $35/oz. However, after World War II, the economy of the United States took off, and international trade was settled in US dollars. Due to the continuous economic expansion, there were more and more US dollars, which led to the rapid increase of inflation in the United States, and the continuous deficit of the balance of payments, which had to be made up by issuing currency, which led to the further aggravation of inflation and the collapse of US dollar credit.</p><p>Since the 1970s, the world began to run on gold, and the gold reserves of the United States have decreased. The United States is worried that it cannot continue to support the exchange commitment between the US dollar and gold. With the collapse of the Brinton Woods system, the price of gold changed from a fixed price to a floating price again. From 1973 to 1980, gold soared from $35 to $850, a 24-fold increase. It wasn't until the violent rate hike of the Volcker era in 1980 that gold really peaked.</p><p><strong>Second, in the first decade of the 21st century, gold ushered in a new round of bull market</strong></p><p>Behind it is the catalysis of a series of events such as the \"911\" incident, inflation after the rapid development of the US economy, the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. With the suppression of the European debt crisis and the gradual recovery of the US economy, gold fell into a five-year bear market after 2011.</p><p>In the 17 years since the financial crisis broke out, the average annual federal fiscal deficit rate in the United States has reached 6.3%. Even excluding 2020 and 2021 under the epidemic environment, the average deficit rate is as high as 5.4%, much higher than the average level of 1.7% from 1950s to before the financial crisis. The economic growth model with fiscal overdraft as the core driving force is the core reason for the continuous depreciation of the US dollar relative to gold. After the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022, the technical default of the United States on Russia's $300 billion foreign reserves marked a new stage of decline in the credit and influence of the US dollar. Represented by the People's Bank of China, it hoarded gold while reducing its holdings of US debt.</p><p><strong>Third, this round of gold bull market has no significant signs of overinflation</strong></p><p>If the United States started deficit monetization in 2008 as the starting point, the price of gold has doubled by 5.7 times so far; If the United States technically defaults on Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022 as a starting point, the price of gold has doubled 2.4 times so far. Compared with the 24-fold increase in gold price in 1970s, this round of gold bull market shows no significant signs of overinflation.</p><p>The opposite of gold is dollar credit. In the long run, the upward trend of gold price is positively correlated with the size of U.S. debt. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that the ratio of total U.S. federal debt held by the public to U.S. GDP will rise to 118.5% by 2035 from 97.8% in 2025, surpassing the high at the end of World War II. There is still room for imagination in a gold bull market. Unless in this process, AI technology can bring an overall improvement in productivity of various industries from the organizational and architectural level, and lead the United States to get out of stagflation and improve economic and fiscal efficiency, then it is a signal that the gold bull market will end.</p><p><strong>From the financial level, is the process of the central bank and the market buying more gold coming to an end?</strong></p><p><strong>First, the central bank's gold purchase: the pace slows down rather than ends</strong></p><p>Against the background of global political multipolarity, the declining geopolitical influence of the United States and the increasing debt vigilance of developed economies such as the United States and Europe, geopolitical powers (China, Russia, India, etc.), traditional neutral countries (Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and Russia-Ukraine frontier countries (Poland, Hungary, etc.) have gradually increased their gold reserves in the past three years. The proportion of \"gold purchased by the central bank\" in gold investment demand once rose from 15% in the first quarter of 2022 to a high of 54% in the fourth quarter of 2024.</p><p>Even though it has significantly increased its holdings for three consecutive years, the global central banks are still underallocated to gold. According to the World Bank data, gold reserves will account for about 22% of the global central bank reserves in 2024, an increase of 7 percentage points from three years ago, but there is still a gap compared with the important turning points of geopolitical landscape in history. It was 29 percent at the end of the Cold War in 1990 and 58 percent at the end of Great Stagflation in 1980. If the proportion of gold reserves held by the central bank returns to the level of 1990, there will still be 7% room for improvement, corresponding to about 3,400 tons of gold purchase demand.</p><p>According to the results of the World Gold Council's survey of central bank gold reserves in 2025, 76% of the central banks surveyed said that the proportion of gold reserves would continue to \"Moderately higher\" in the next five years (46% in 2022, 62% in 2023 and 69% in 2024). The performance of gold during the crisis, the diversification of portfolio and the demand to hedge against inflation are the core reasons for their increase in gold holdings.</p><p>Guojin Securities believes that under the depreciation transaction of the fading credit of the US dollar, the revaluation of gold, as a scarce monetary asset without sovereign credit endorsement, is hard to say, and the price of gold has \"lost its anchor\". In this process, the central bank's demand for gold purchase has not weakened. In the short term, although the amount of gold purchase is not as fanatic as the market funds, it will become an important chassis force of gold price. When the gold price is technically corrected, the gold purchase expectations of the central bank and sovereign funds will constrain the space and persistence of the correction.</p><p><strong>2. Market funds: the demand for portfolio optimization and the demand for hedging AI narrative are still there</strong></p><p>For investment institutions, the long-term value of gold lies in its low pullback/retracement and low correlation with traditional stock and bond assets, which is an indispensable hedging tool in the allocation portfolio of large assets.</p><p>Although large asset allocation portfolios such as risk parity strategy portfolio and Markowitz-mean variance strategy portfolio have certain exposure to gold, there are still some non-institutional investors and traditional stock-bond strategy portfolios that have not set foot in gold, because stock-bond hedging has been effective for a long time in the past, and bonds are enough to disperse the volatility risk of US stocks. In the 40 years before 2022, the world as a whole has experienced a dividend era with falling interest rates and cooperation among superpowers. Especially after 2008, major central banks such as the United States, Europe and Japan have maintained extremely loose monetary policies for many years. However, since 2022, factors such as the global pandemic, populist politics in the West, interest rate and inflation environment have made great changes in the global financial market.</p><p>A persistently high inflationary environment can largely undermine the value of government bonds as a portfolio diversifier. Nearly 50 years of historical experience shows that when the core inflation level in the United States is lower than 2.5%, the correlation between U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds is generally negative (that is, allocating stocks and bonds at the same time can effectively spread risks), but when the core inflation is higher than 2.5%, this stock-bond hedging is on the verge of failure. The positive correlation between U.S. equities and bonds remains near its nearly 27-year high this year, highlighting the need for alternative assets as a tool for diversified allocation. Given that gold has historically had a low correlation with many traditional asset classes, allocating gold strategically can help improve the return-risk-value ratio of various portfolios across a variety of market cycles. Global gold ETF holdings have increased by 20% over the past year, and strong investment demand may not only be pricing in Fed rate cut expectations, but also a signal that traditional portfolio strategies are changing.</p><p>For trading funds, the demand for overweight of gold still exists. On the one hand, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle has not yet finished, and the market pricing will still land for 2-3 interest rate cuts next year. The downward expectation of the real interest rate may drive the purchase of market funds represented by gold ETFs. On the other hand, the dumbbell strategy of \"doing more AI + doing more gold\" is a betting on both ends of the next stage of American national fortunes. When the AI bubble reaches the second half, the \"hedging\" attribute of gold is expected to increase.</p><p><strong>Gold: Pricing Perspective of Current Money and Credit VS. Price Comparison Perspective with US Financial Assets</strong></p><p>Under the monetary credit system, if the global dollar currency/global gold central bank reserve is used as the representative of global dollar gold, then the dollar credit implied by the current gold pricing of about 4,000 dollars per ounce is already lower than that when the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971. However, if you look at it from another perspective, compared with the financial assets in the United States, the current market value of gold/the market value of stocks and bonds in the United States is just at the historical low near 1971.</p><p><strong>Risk warning:</strong>The availability of data is limited, and there is lag in public data; The pace of AI commercialization has accelerated, recharging US dollar credit; There is a bias in the understanding of the reconstruction of the international order.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388299.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"BK0188":"融资融券","BK0012":"证金概念","BK0276":"资本市场","BK0028":"国家队","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0201":"可转债"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1388299.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2600017238","content_text":"国金证券发布研究报告称，尽管2025年内央行购金节奏放缓，但投机资金涌入推动金价走高，短期回调主要受情绪和技术性因素驱动，而全球滞胀、秩序混沌、美国赤字货币化的核心支撑逻辑未变。展望2026，当市场对“AI未知”这一定价逻辑尚未改变时，缺乏秩序仍是黄金的有利环境。当AI泡沫与黄金构成“哑铃”，黄金作为AI持仓的保险已实现了高光时刻的价值。白银作为既有“类黄金”属性又与AI电力相关的叙事资产，具备阶段性更高的弹性。但一旦AI叙事变得清晰，黄金的高光时刻或落幕，届时“两头受益”的白银叙事可能也会回归理性。国金证券主要观点如下：以史为鉴，当前黄金“超涨”了吗?一、回顾黄金价格的历史，具备较强参考性的阶段分别是二战时期和上世纪70年代1929年股市崩盘后，美国陷入经济大萧条，民众挤兑黄金导致银行体系濒临崩溃。金本位制下美元发行必须与黄金储备挂钩，这限制了政府通过发行货币来解决问题的能力，银行大批倒闭，老百姓大量失业。因此1933年美国罗斯福新政后，宣布全国所有银行必须停止黄金交易，将黄金收归国有。二战爆发美国正式参战后，美国财政赤字率一度升至27%，美联储通过无上限的国库券购买，稳定后者的市场利率。这一措施的结果是，从1939年8月至1948年8月，美国基础货币总量增长了149%。与此同时，以美元计价的黄金在同期上涨了123%。布雷顿森林体系时期，黄金价格被固定为35美元/盎司。但二战后美国经济腾飞，国际贸易又以美元结算，受到经济的不断扩张，美元是越来越多，导致美国的通货膨胀急速加剧，国际收支持续逆差，又不得不依靠发行货币来弥补，导致通货膨胀进一步加剧，美元信用一度面临崩塌。70年代起全球开始挤兑黄金，美国黄金储备减少，美国担忧无法继续支撑美元与黄金的兑换承诺。布林顿森林体系崩溃，金价再度由固定价格变成浮动价格。1973年-1980年，黄金从35美元一路飙升到850美元，翻了24倍。直到1980年沃尔克时代暴力加息，黄金才真正见顶。二、21世纪的第一个十年，黄金迎来新一轮牛市背后是“911”事件、美国经济高速发展后陷入通货膨胀、全球金融危机、欧债危机等一系列事件的催化。随着欧债危机得到抑制、美国经济逐渐复苏，黄金在2011年后陷入5年熊市。金融危机爆发至今的17年里，美国平均年度联邦财政赤字率达到6.3%，即使剔除疫情环境下的2020和2021年，平均赤字率也高达5.4%，远高于上世纪50年代至金融危机前的平均水平1.7%，以财政透支为核心驱动力的经济增长模式是美元相对于黄金持续贬值的核心原因。2022年俄乌危机后美国对于俄罗斯3000亿美元外储的技术性违约则标志着美元信用和影响力下降的新阶段，以中国央行为代表，一边减持美债一边大幅囤金。三、本轮黄金牛市并未有显著超涨的迹象若以2008年美国启动赤字货币化作为起点，迄今为止金价翻了5.7倍;若以2022年美国对俄罗斯外汇储备技术性违约作为起点，迄今为止金价翻了2.4倍。相较于上世纪70年代金价翻24倍的涨幅，本轮黄金牛市并未有显著超涨的迹象。黄金的对立面是美元信用，长期来看金价的上涨趋势与美国债务规模存在正相关性。据美国国会预算办公室(CBO)预测，到2035年，公众持有的美国联邦债务总量与美国GDP的比值将从2025年的97.8%上升至118.5%，超过二战结束时的高点，这一背景下黄金牛市仍有想象空间。除非这一过程中，出现了AI技术能够从组织和架构层面带来各行业生产率的全面提升，并带领美国重新走出滞胀、改善经济和财政效率，那么即是黄金牛市终止的信号。从资金层面，央行和市场增购黄金的进程是否快要走完?一、央行购金：节奏放缓而非结束在全球政治多极化、美国地缘影响力下降以及美欧等发达经济体债务警惕日益上升的背景下，地缘大国(中国、俄罗斯、印度等)、传统中立国(新加坡、沙特、卡塔尔等)及俄乌前沿地带国家(波兰、匈牙利等)在过去三年内逐步增加黄金储备。黄金投资需求中“央行购金”的占比从2022年一季度的15%，一度上升至2024年四季度的高点54%。即便已经连续三年显著增持，目前全球央行对黄金仍然偏低配。根据世界银行数据，2024年全球央行储备中黄金储备占比约为22%，较三年前上升了7个百分点，但相较于历史上重要的地缘政治格局转折点均仍有差距。1990年冷战末期时这一数值为29%，1980年大滞胀末期时为58%。央行持有黄金储备占比若回到1990年的水平，还有7%的提升空间，对应约3400吨的购金需求。2025年世界黄金协会对央行黄金储备的调查结果显示，76%的受访央行表示未来5年黄金储备占比将继续“温和上升(Moderately higher)”(2022年为46%，2023年为62%，2024年为69%)，黄金在危机时期的表现、组合多元化、以及对冲通胀的诉求是他们增持黄金最核心的理由。国金证券认为，美元信用褪色的贬值交易下，黄金作为稀缺的无主权信用背书的货币资产，价值重估难言结束，金价已经“失锚”。这一过程中，央行购金需求并未减弱，短期内购金量虽不及市场资金狂热，但会成为一股重要的金价底盘力量。当金价技术性回调时，央行和主权基金的购金预期将对回调空间和持续性产生约束。二、市场资金：组合优化需求与对冲AI叙事需求仍在对于投资机构而言，黄金的长期价值在于其回撤低、和传统股债资产间相关性低，是大类资产配置组合中不可或缺的对冲工具。虽然风险平价策略组合、马科维茨—均值方差策略组合等大类资产配置组合已具备一定的黄金敞口，但仍有一部分非机构类投资者和传统股债策略组合并未涉足黄金，因为过去相当长的时期内，股债对冲是有效的，债券足以分散美股的波动风险。2022年以前的40年里，全球整体都在经历了一个利率下降、超级大国之间以合作为主的红利时代，尤其是2008年之后美、欧、日等主要央行均维持极度宽松货币政策多年。但是自2022年以来，全球大流行、西方民粹主义政治、利率与通胀环境等因素使全球金融市场发生了极大的变化。持续的高通胀环境在很大程度上会削弱政府债券作为组合多元化工具的价值。近50年历史经验显示，当美国核心通胀水平低于2.5%时，美股美债之间的相关性大体上为负(即同时配置股+债便能有效分散风险)，但当核心通胀高于2.5%时，这种股债对冲濒临失效。今年美国股债的正相关性仍然处于近27年来的高位附近，凸显了另类资产作为多元化配置工具的必要性。鉴于黄金与许多传统资产类别的相关性历来较低，对黄金进行战略性配置有助于改善各种投资组合在各种市场周期中的收益风险性价比。过去一年里，全球黄金ETF持有量增长了20%，强劲的投资需求可能不仅在定价美联储降息预期，也是传统资产组合策略正在发生变革的信号。对于交易性资金而言，黄金的增持需求也仍然存在。一方面，美联储降息周期尚未走完，市场定价明年仍会落地2-3次降息，实际利率下行预期或驱动以黄金ETF为代表的市场资金买入。另一方面，“做多AI+做多黄金”的哑铃策略是对下一阶段美国国运的两头押注，当AI泡沫行至后半段，黄金的“对冲”属性有望增强。黄金：当前货币信用的定价视角 VS 与美国金融资产的比价视角在货币信用体系下，如果用全球美元货币/全球黄金央行储备量作为全球美元黄金的代表，那么当前4000美元左右一盎司的黄金定价所隐含的美元信用已经低于1971年布雷顿森林体系破灭之时。但如果换一个视角来看，与美国的金融资产比价，当前黄金市值/美国的股票和债券市值也刚好处于与1971年附近的历史低位。风险提示：数据可得性有限，公开数据存在滞后性;AI商业化节奏加快，为美元信用充值;对国际秩序重构的理解有偏差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"GCmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}