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  ·2021-09-17
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  The "Three Musketeers" of Crude Oil Market: Virus, Hurricane and U.S. government
  核心摘要今年7月以来，国际油价经历大幅震荡下行，这背后有三个关键词——病毒、飓风和美国政府。上述“三剑客”将对今年9月以后的国际油价产生复杂影响，本文重点讨论其影响并再次展望今年下半年油价走势。剑
  The "Three Musketeers" of Crude Oil Market: Virus, Hurricane and U.S. government
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The aforementioned \"three musketeers\" will have a complex impact on international oil prices after September this year. This article focuses on their impact and looks forward to the oil price trend in the second half of this year.</p><p><b>Swordsman 1: Delta variant virus.</b>Since July of this year, the global COVID-19 pandemic has worsened due to the Delta variant, affecting both the United States and China, the world's two largest oil consumers.<b>This round of the pandemic has not yet had a significant impact on global oil consumption, but it has significantly dampened demand expectations.</b>In its August report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its crude oil demand forecast for the second half of 2021 by 550,000 barrels per day. Considering that global oil consumption remained strong in June and July this year, global flight data showed strong demand in August, and the limited intensity of the current round of epidemic prevention policies in major economies, the marginal impact of the new round of the epidemic on global economic activity and oil demand may be limited. The proportion of non-commercial long positions in WTI crude oil futures fell to a new low since the pandemic in July and August this year.<b>The market may have already fully (or even overpriced) the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman 2: Hurricane.</b>Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in the United States on August 29, has attracted widespread market attention. Referring to the impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Harvey in 2017, we judge that<b>The overall impact of Hurricane Ida on oil prices was limited:</b>In the short term, it may show a slight rise due to the disruption of oil production activities in the Gulf of Mexico; However, in the next 2-3 weeks, the persistent power outages in Louisiana will mainly affect the production activities of oil refineries, or weaken oil demand to some extent and have a suppressive effect on oil prices.</p><p><b>Swordsman 3: The US government is dumping its reserves.</b>On August 23, the U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to sell up to 20 million barrels of the Strategic Crude Oil Reserve for delivery between October 1 and December 15 this year, the largest sale since 2011. We have analyzed the impact of six large-scale sales of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the United States since 1990 on oil prices. Overall, the sale of strategic petroleum reserves by the United States may suppress international oil prices in the short term (within six months).<b>The five sell-offs between 1991 and 2011 all caused oil prices to fall, with the largest drops in WTI and Brent oil prices ranging from 20-44% and 16-45% respectively, with intervals of about 1-3 months.</b>The scale and pace of this sale may be larger and faster than the historical average. At the same time, the possibility that the Biden administration will increase policy efforts to curb oil prices cannot be ruled out.<b>The US government's actions, such as dumping reserves, may have a significant suppressive effect on oil prices in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>Based on our overall assessment, we have lowered our international crude oil price target range for September-December 2021 to $65-75 per barrel, and do not rule out the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel in the short term. 1) Regarding demand,</b>Although the marginal impact of this round of the pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand is limited, we are more cautious in our assessment of global oil demand in the second half of the year. Furthermore, given that the COVID-19 pandemic in China is under control while the US pandemic continues to spread, Brent crude oil prices may remain relatively strong compared to WTI crude oil for the next 1-2 months.<b>2) On the supply side,</b>The US government's release of reserves will increase oil supply in October and December this year, during which time oil prices are likely to be under pressure. However, without considering the impact of the US dumping of reserves, the tight crude oil supply will remain in the second half of the year, which is the key reason why we have not significantly lowered our oil price target range.<b>3) Regarding the financial environment,</b>Even if the Federal Reserve implements Taper within the year, the US financial market may remain relatively stable in the second half of the year, and the probability of a significant strengthening of the US dollar is not high. However, it is still important to be wary of the risk of financial market volatility around the time the Federal Reserve officially announces Taper, and the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel cannot be ruled out.</p><p><b><i>Risk warning: The impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic exceeded expectations, OPEC+ production increases exceeded expectations, and Federal Reserve policies exceeded expectations.</i></b></p><p><b>Since July this year, international oil prices have experienced significant downward fluctuations, driven by three key words: virus, hurricane, and the US government (Chart 1).</b></p><p>On July 5, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rose to highs of $76.3 and $77.2 per barrel, respectively. But the good times didn't last long.<b>The global spread of the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus continues to cause market panic,</b>Coupled with brief disagreements between the UAE and the OPEC+ agreement, the upward trend in oil prices came to an end. Since August, international oil prices have fallen for three consecutive weeks, including<b>On August 11, the White House called on OPEC+ to increase production.</b>This exacerbated the downward trend in oil prices. On August 20, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil fell to $62.1 and $65.2 per barrel, respectively, down 19% and 16% from their highs on July 5.</p><p>In late August, a fire broke out on a drilling rig platform in Mexico.<b>Disturbance of Hurricane Ida on Oil Supply in the Gulf of Mexico, USA</b>This contributed to a strong rebound in oil prices, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising 11% and 13% respectively between August 23 and 30. Brent crude oil prices stabilized again at $70 per barrel, but WTI crude oil prices remained below $70 per barrel, and the price difference between the two continued to widen. On August 23,<b>The U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to sell up to 20 million barrels of its strategic crude oil reserve between October and December this year.</b>This adds uncertainty to subsequent oil price trends.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a2c42a831aaa0c7decefabbcc9849b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In June 2021, we predicted that international oil prices would maintain a range of $70-80 per barrel in the second half of 2021, while we did not rule out the possibility that oil prices would break through $80 per barrel in a short period of time (refer to the report \"Will Oil Prices Be the Next 'Gray Rhino'?\" dated June 30, 2021). However, the impact of the Delta variant on major oil-demanding countries such as China and the United States, the disruption of supply caused by US hurricanes, and the US government's attempt to suppress oil prices through means such as dumping reserves all exceeded our previous expectations. The aforementioned \"three musketeers\" will have a complex impact on oil prices after September this year. This article focuses on their impact and looks forward to the oil price trend in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman 1: Delta Mutant Virus</b></p><p><b>Since July of this year, the global COVID-19 pandemic has further worsened due to the Delta variant virus (Chart 2). As the world's two largest oil consumers, the impact of the pandemic on the United States and China has attracted great attention from the crude oil market.</b>In China, the number of newly confirmed local cases remained in the single digits before July, but at its peak in early August, the number of local cases increased by more than 100 per day. Against this backdrop, governments in many regions have strengthened epidemic prevention and control measures again, and the market has begun to worry about reduced transportation and other activities and a decrease in demand for related petroleum products. In particular, China's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia (seasonally adjusted) declined by 6.8% and 6.6% month-on-month in June and July, respectively, and the import volume in July was the lowest since October 2020 (Chart 3). In the United States, the number of new daily COVID-19 cases rose from less than 20,000 before July to more than 100,000 in August. The rise of the pandemic, coupled with the slow pace of vaccination, has forced the US government to delay announcing a complete reopening of the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f654a9bb5e37ceec93d9aed135d3b74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Due to the disruption caused by the mutated virus, international institutions have successively lowered their crude oil demand forecasts for the second half of 2021, suppressing bullish sentiment in the crude oil futures market.</b>In its August report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its crude oil demand forecast for the second half of 2021 by 550,000 barrels per day and its full-year global oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 96.2 million barrels per day. The EIA and OPEC's August reports maintained their respective forecasts for world oil demand growth in 2021 and 2022, but OPEC expects demand for OPEC crude oil to decrease by 200,000 barrels per day to 27.4 million barrels per day in 2021. If we compare the EIA's forecast in August with that in June, it predicts that global consumption of petroleum products will decrease by 350,000 barrels per day and 210,000 barrels per day in November and December 2021, respectively (Chart 4). At the same time,<b>The crude oil market continues to price in a new round of pandemic impact.</b>IPE futures trading results show that since late June, the proportion of non-commercial long positions in WTI has begun to decline and continued to hit a new low since the pandemic. The sell-off by long positions has also exacerbated the decline in oil prices (Chart 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62310fd6577cecaa5c4a97fe953cbd41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>We believe that the marginal impact of the new round of the COVID-19 pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand may be limited.</b>First, global oil consumption remained strong in June and July this year despite the disruption caused by the pandemic, and the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand has not yet become apparent. Comparing the data updated by the EIA in June and August, global actual oil consumption increased more than expected in June and July this year, exceeding the June forecasts of 360,000 barrels per day and 300,000 barrels per day, respectively.<b>Second, high-frequency data shows that global transportation demand remained strong in August.</b>For example, Flightradar24 statistics show that the number of global flights did not decrease significantly during July and August, and current levels are close to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (Chart 6).<b>Third, the intensity of the current round of epidemic prevention policies in major economies is limited, which in turn has a limited impact on economic activity and oil demand.</b>Asian economies such as China and Japan have upgraded their epidemic prevention and control measures in the short term, but the intensity is still relatively limited. European and American economies such as Britain, Germany and the United States tend to \"lie flat\" under the protection of vaccines. According to calculations by Oxford University's Our World in Data website, following the outbreak of the new wave of the pandemic, the \"Stringency Index\" of government prevention and control measures in major economies has not significantly exceeded the level at the beginning of this year (Chart 7).</p><p><b>In summary, this round of the pandemic has not yet had a significant impact on global oil consumption, but it has significantly dampened demand expectations. However, the market may have already fully (or even overpriced) the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/799839faff99fbad6c6508c1dc1d4c04\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Swordsman 2: Hurricane</b></p><p><b>On August 29, Hurricane Ida, a Category 4 hurricane, struck the U.S. Gulf Coast, shutting down 90-95% of oil production offshore the Gulf Coast (involving a capacity of approximately 1.7 million barrels per day).</b>The hurricane was downgraded to a \"tropical storm\" 16 hours after making landfall, but it caused \"catastrophic\" damage to Louisiana's power grid. The power outage is expected to last for about three weeks, during which time it may lead to the shutdown of oil processing and chemical plants.</p><p><b>Historically, the impact of hurricanes on oil prices has been uncertain, as hurricanes may simultaneously affect oil supply and demand, and the U.S. government may also stabilize oil prices by selling strategic petroleum reserves.</b>Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (Category 5) and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 (Category 4) are the two hurricanes with the greatest economic impact in U.S. history. In 2005, a hurricane in the United States drove up oil prices within a week because the hurricane mainly disrupted oil production and supply; However, the U.S. government subsequently sold its strategic petroleum reserve, causing oil prices to decline for 2-3 months (Chart 8). In 2017, a U.S. hurricane caused oil prices to fall slightly within a week because the hurricane mainly affected refinery production, which meant that refineries' demand for crude oil weakened. The subsequent sale of strategic petroleum reserves did not stop the upward trend in oil prices in the second half of the year (Chart 9).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e98fbd93acc9858d4f588e1475352cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In summary, Hurricane Ida's overall impact on oil prices was limited: a slight rise may occur in the short term due to disruptions to oil production activities in the Gulf of Mexico. However, in the next 2-3 weeks, the prolonged power outages in Louisiana will mainly affect the production activities of oil refineries, or weaken oil demand to some extent, which may have a certain inhibitory effect on oil prices.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman Three: US Government Dumps Reserves</b></p><p><b>On August 23, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management issued an announcement stating that it plans to finalize contracts for the sale of up to 20 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves by September 13, with deliveries scheduled between October 1 and December 15 of this year. This sale is the largest since 2011.</b></p><p><b>We have reviewed the impact of large-scale sales of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the United States since 1990 on oil prices (Chart 10).</b>Since 1990, the U.S. government has conducted six sales of strategic petroleum reserves ranging from 15 to 30 million barrels. Triggers include emergencies such as war and hurricanes, as well as easing fiscal deficits, alleviating seasonal oil shortages, or appeasing voters.</p><p><b>First, overall, the sale of strategic petroleum reserves by the United States may suppress oil prices in the short term (within six months), but it is unlikely to change the medium-term (more than six months) trend.</b>The five sell-offs between 1991 and 2011 all caused oil prices to fall, with the largest drops in WTI and Brent crude oil prices ranging from 20-44% and 16-45% respectively, with the largest drops lasting about 1-3 months, averaging 52 days. After Hurricane Harvey in 2017, oil prices rose instead of falling due to the small scale of strategic petroleum reserve sales (only 15 million barrels) and the slow pace of release (lasting about four months).</p><p><b>Second, if the scale of reserve dumping is large (such as exceeding 30 million barrels in 2000 and 2011) or the pace of selling is rapid (such as taking only two months in 1991), the corresponding oil price adjustment will be greater.</b></p><p><b>Third, the price movements of WTI and Brent oil did not diverge significantly during the US dumping of reserves, indicating that the US dumping of reserves will have a global impact on the crude oil market.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e046e19bc7f6b35c7d9957201c2eab8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd944ce72bd31291da7afd82aa39971a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>We believe that the main reason for this sale of strategic petroleum reserves is that the Biden administration hopes to curb oil prices to alleviate inflationary pressures.</b></p><p><b>First, the growth rate of oil prices is highly correlated with the trend of US inflation indicators.</b>Looking at the structure of the US CPI, according to data released by the BLS in July, the energy sub-item (including energy products and energy services) accounted for 7.2% of the US CPI, while the transportation services sub-item accounted for 5.3%. We calculate that the two factors contributed 2 percentage points to the 5.4% year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI in July. Historical data shows that the US CPI is highly correlated with the monthly year-on-year growth rate of oil prices (Chart 11), because the prices of goods and services other than energy products are generally relatively stable.</p><p><b>Secondly, Biden expressed concerns about high gasoline prices in the United States during his speech on August 11.</b>He stated that the United States will strengthen regulation of the oil market in the future and crack down on illegal activities that inflate oil prices. It is worth noting that historically, the price trends of US gasoline and crude oil have basically matched, but in 2021, the increase in US gasoline prices significantly exceeded that of crude oil. In particular, the correction in WTI crude oil prices since July did not lead to a decline in gasoline prices (Chart 12). Meanwhile, Biden addressed OPEC, stating that the production cuts implemented after the pandemic should be reversed as the global economy recovers in order to lower the consumer prices of petroleum products. U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan also stated that OPEC+'s plan to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day starting in August was \"far from enough,\" and indicated that the White House was in contact with OPEC member countries regarding the importance of competitive markets, which had triggered market panic about U.S. interference in OPEC+'s production decisions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/359ab0b4d89955b5d6d39ea5450d972d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In summary, if the strategic petroleum reserve sale is 20 million barrels and is to be released in less than three months, then the scale and pace of this sale will be larger and faster than the historical average. Meanwhile, considering that the Biden administration currently has a strong desire to curb oil prices to alleviate inflationary pressures, the possibility of it increasing policy efforts or introducing more measures in the future cannot be ruled out. In summary, the US government's actions, such as dumping reserves, may have a significant suppressive effect on oil prices in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>The oil price target range for September-December this year has been lowered to $65-75 per barrel.</b></p><p><b>Based on our overall assessment, we have lowered our international crude oil price target range for September-December this year to $65-75 per barrel, and we do not rule out the possibility that oil prices may fall below $65 per barrel in the short term during this period.</b></p><p><b>First, on the demand side,</b>We believe that the marginal impact of this round of the pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand is limited, but<b>We are more cautious in our assessment of global oil demand in the second half of the year.</b>Furthermore, since the epidemic in China has been brought under control while the epidemic in the United States is still spreading,<b>Brent crude oil prices are likely to remain relatively strong against WTI crude oil for the next 1-2 months.</b></p><p>Previously, the offsetting forces of \"herd immunity\" and \"pandemic counterattack\" were considered (it now seems that the force of \"pandemic counterattack\" may be stronger). We expect crude oil demand to maintain a growth rate similar to that of the first half of the year in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter of this year, there is still ample room for recovery in the service sector and related oil demand in the United States and major developed economies. However, it should be noted that summer in the Northern Hemisphere is usually the season with the strongest demand for service industries such as transportation and tourism (the number of global flights peaks between July and September each year, Chart 6). The current round of the pandemic has impacted the service sector this quarter. Therefore, even if the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic subsides in the fourth quarter, global demand for petroleum products may not recover as quickly as previously expected, as winter itself is not conducive to economic activities such as transportation.</p><p><b>Secondly, on the supply side, the US government's release of reserves will increase oil supply in October and December this year, during which time oil prices are likely to be under pressure.</b>(Furthermore, if the new wave of the pandemic in the United States is not effectively controlled in October, oil prices may fall below $65 per barrel due to negative factors related to both supply and demand.)<b>However, without considering the impact of the US dumping of reserves, the tight crude oil supply will remain in the second half of the year, which is the key reason why we have not significantly lowered our oil price target range.</b></p><p><b>We believe that the key factors limiting significant production increases by U.S. oil companies and the OPEC+ group in the second half of the year (such as repairing corporate debt or national fiscal deficits, and the need for economic transformation) remain unchanged.</b>As of now, the supply constraints in the global crude oil market are largely in line with our expectations.<b>In the United States,</b>U.S. crude oil inventories remain low, and the number of U.S. crude oil drilling rigs remains weaker than historical performance (Chart 13).<b>Regarding OPEC+,</b>On July 18, OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day each month starting in August.<b>On September 1, OPEC+ announced that it would maintain its production increase plan, but the extent of this increase remained restrained.</b>OPEC production in July this year was only 26.66 million barrels per day, which is still 3.2 million barrels per day lower than the 2019 average (11% less), while the EIA statistics show that global oil consumption in July was only 2.1 million barrels per day lower than the 2019 average (only 2% less). Assuming OPEC increases production by 400,000 barrels per day per month starting in August, the increase may still be less than the increase in global oil demand (Chart 14).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad43a3241848d00f3bbe66eba485218d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Third, regarding the financial environment,</b>Although the Federal Reserve is likely to begin implementing Taper within the year (November or December), the US monetary easing environment will not tighten suddenly. In addition, the Fed is paying special attention to communication with the market in this round, and the US financial market may remain relatively stable in the second half of the year.<b>The probability of a significant strengthening of the US dollar is low.</b>(Refer to the report \"The US Dollar Next\"). However, since the August non-farm payroll data somewhat disrupted market expectations, we still need to be wary of the risk of volatility in financial markets before and after the Federal Reserve officially announces Taper. Around the time of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 22, as specific decisions regarding Taper may be announced at the meeting, a decline in risk appetite and a stronger dollar may cause oil prices to fall in the short term. At that time, the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel cannot be ruled out.</p>","source":"lsy1631857626729","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Three Musketeers\" of Crude Oil Market: Virus, Hurricane and U.S. government</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Three Musketeers\" of Crude Oil Market: Virus, Hurricane and U.S. government\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 13:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Core Summary</b></p><p>Since July of this year, international oil prices have experienced significant downward fluctuations, driven by three key words: virus, hurricane, and the US government. The aforementioned \"three musketeers\" will have a complex impact on international oil prices after September this year. This article focuses on their impact and looks forward to the oil price trend in the second half of this year.</p><p><b>Swordsman 1: Delta variant virus.</b>Since July of this year, the global COVID-19 pandemic has worsened due to the Delta variant, affecting both the United States and China, the world's two largest oil consumers.<b>This round of the pandemic has not yet had a significant impact on global oil consumption, but it has significantly dampened demand expectations.</b>In its August report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its crude oil demand forecast for the second half of 2021 by 550,000 barrels per day. Considering that global oil consumption remained strong in June and July this year, global flight data showed strong demand in August, and the limited intensity of the current round of epidemic prevention policies in major economies, the marginal impact of the new round of the epidemic on global economic activity and oil demand may be limited. The proportion of non-commercial long positions in WTI crude oil futures fell to a new low since the pandemic in July and August this year.<b>The market may have already fully (or even overpriced) the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman 2: Hurricane.</b>Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in the United States on August 29, has attracted widespread market attention. Referring to the impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Harvey in 2017, we judge that<b>The overall impact of Hurricane Ida on oil prices was limited:</b>In the short term, it may show a slight rise due to the disruption of oil production activities in the Gulf of Mexico; However, in the next 2-3 weeks, the persistent power outages in Louisiana will mainly affect the production activities of oil refineries, or weaken oil demand to some extent and have a suppressive effect on oil prices.</p><p><b>Swordsman 3: The US government is dumping its reserves.</b>On August 23, the U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to sell up to 20 million barrels of the Strategic Crude Oil Reserve for delivery between October 1 and December 15 this year, the largest sale since 2011. We have analyzed the impact of six large-scale sales of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the United States since 1990 on oil prices. Overall, the sale of strategic petroleum reserves by the United States may suppress international oil prices in the short term (within six months).<b>The five sell-offs between 1991 and 2011 all caused oil prices to fall, with the largest drops in WTI and Brent oil prices ranging from 20-44% and 16-45% respectively, with intervals of about 1-3 months.</b>The scale and pace of this sale may be larger and faster than the historical average. At the same time, the possibility that the Biden administration will increase policy efforts to curb oil prices cannot be ruled out.<b>The US government's actions, such as dumping reserves, may have a significant suppressive effect on oil prices in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>Based on our overall assessment, we have lowered our international crude oil price target range for September-December 2021 to $65-75 per barrel, and do not rule out the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel in the short term. 1) Regarding demand,</b>Although the marginal impact of this round of the pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand is limited, we are more cautious in our assessment of global oil demand in the second half of the year. Furthermore, given that the COVID-19 pandemic in China is under control while the US pandemic continues to spread, Brent crude oil prices may remain relatively strong compared to WTI crude oil for the next 1-2 months.<b>2) On the supply side,</b>The US government's release of reserves will increase oil supply in October and December this year, during which time oil prices are likely to be under pressure. However, without considering the impact of the US dumping of reserves, the tight crude oil supply will remain in the second half of the year, which is the key reason why we have not significantly lowered our oil price target range.<b>3) Regarding the financial environment,</b>Even if the Federal Reserve implements Taper within the year, the US financial market may remain relatively stable in the second half of the year, and the probability of a significant strengthening of the US dollar is not high. However, it is still important to be wary of the risk of financial market volatility around the time the Federal Reserve officially announces Taper, and the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel cannot be ruled out.</p><p><b><i>Risk warning: The impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic exceeded expectations, OPEC+ production increases exceeded expectations, and Federal Reserve policies exceeded expectations.</i></b></p><p><b>Since July this year, international oil prices have experienced significant downward fluctuations, driven by three key words: virus, hurricane, and the US government (Chart 1).</b></p><p>On July 5, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rose to highs of $76.3 and $77.2 per barrel, respectively. But the good times didn't last long.<b>The global spread of the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus continues to cause market panic,</b>Coupled with brief disagreements between the UAE and the OPEC+ agreement, the upward trend in oil prices came to an end. Since August, international oil prices have fallen for three consecutive weeks, including<b>On August 11, the White House called on OPEC+ to increase production.</b>This exacerbated the downward trend in oil prices. On August 20, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil fell to $62.1 and $65.2 per barrel, respectively, down 19% and 16% from their highs on July 5.</p><p>In late August, a fire broke out on a drilling rig platform in Mexico.<b>Disturbance of Hurricane Ida on Oil Supply in the Gulf of Mexico, USA</b>This contributed to a strong rebound in oil prices, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising 11% and 13% respectively between August 23 and 30. Brent crude oil prices stabilized again at $70 per barrel, but WTI crude oil prices remained below $70 per barrel, and the price difference between the two continued to widen. On August 23,<b>The U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to sell up to 20 million barrels of its strategic crude oil reserve between October and December this year.</b>This adds uncertainty to subsequent oil price trends.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a2c42a831aaa0c7decefabbcc9849b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In June 2021, we predicted that international oil prices would maintain a range of $70-80 per barrel in the second half of 2021, while we did not rule out the possibility that oil prices would break through $80 per barrel in a short period of time (refer to the report \"Will Oil Prices Be the Next 'Gray Rhino'?\" dated June 30, 2021). However, the impact of the Delta variant on major oil-demanding countries such as China and the United States, the disruption of supply caused by US hurricanes, and the US government's attempt to suppress oil prices through means such as dumping reserves all exceeded our previous expectations. The aforementioned \"three musketeers\" will have a complex impact on oil prices after September this year. This article focuses on their impact and looks forward to the oil price trend in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman 1: Delta Mutant Virus</b></p><p><b>Since July of this year, the global COVID-19 pandemic has further worsened due to the Delta variant virus (Chart 2). As the world's two largest oil consumers, the impact of the pandemic on the United States and China has attracted great attention from the crude oil market.</b>In China, the number of newly confirmed local cases remained in the single digits before July, but at its peak in early August, the number of local cases increased by more than 100 per day. Against this backdrop, governments in many regions have strengthened epidemic prevention and control measures again, and the market has begun to worry about reduced transportation and other activities and a decrease in demand for related petroleum products. In particular, China's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia (seasonally adjusted) declined by 6.8% and 6.6% month-on-month in June and July, respectively, and the import volume in July was the lowest since October 2020 (Chart 3). In the United States, the number of new daily COVID-19 cases rose from less than 20,000 before July to more than 100,000 in August. The rise of the pandemic, coupled with the slow pace of vaccination, has forced the US government to delay announcing a complete reopening of the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f654a9bb5e37ceec93d9aed135d3b74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Due to the disruption caused by the mutated virus, international institutions have successively lowered their crude oil demand forecasts for the second half of 2021, suppressing bullish sentiment in the crude oil futures market.</b>In its August report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its crude oil demand forecast for the second half of 2021 by 550,000 barrels per day and its full-year global oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 96.2 million barrels per day. The EIA and OPEC's August reports maintained their respective forecasts for world oil demand growth in 2021 and 2022, but OPEC expects demand for OPEC crude oil to decrease by 200,000 barrels per day to 27.4 million barrels per day in 2021. If we compare the EIA's forecast in August with that in June, it predicts that global consumption of petroleum products will decrease by 350,000 barrels per day and 210,000 barrels per day in November and December 2021, respectively (Chart 4). At the same time,<b>The crude oil market continues to price in a new round of pandemic impact.</b>IPE futures trading results show that since late June, the proportion of non-commercial long positions in WTI has begun to decline and continued to hit a new low since the pandemic. The sell-off by long positions has also exacerbated the decline in oil prices (Chart 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62310fd6577cecaa5c4a97fe953cbd41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>We believe that the marginal impact of the new round of the COVID-19 pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand may be limited.</b>First, global oil consumption remained strong in June and July this year despite the disruption caused by the pandemic, and the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand has not yet become apparent. Comparing the data updated by the EIA in June and August, global actual oil consumption increased more than expected in June and July this year, exceeding the June forecasts of 360,000 barrels per day and 300,000 barrels per day, respectively.<b>Second, high-frequency data shows that global transportation demand remained strong in August.</b>For example, Flightradar24 statistics show that the number of global flights did not decrease significantly during July and August, and current levels are close to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (Chart 6).<b>Third, the intensity of the current round of epidemic prevention policies in major economies is limited, which in turn has a limited impact on economic activity and oil demand.</b>Asian economies such as China and Japan have upgraded their epidemic prevention and control measures in the short term, but the intensity is still relatively limited. European and American economies such as Britain, Germany and the United States tend to \"lie flat\" under the protection of vaccines. According to calculations by Oxford University's Our World in Data website, following the outbreak of the new wave of the pandemic, the \"Stringency Index\" of government prevention and control measures in major economies has not significantly exceeded the level at the beginning of this year (Chart 7).</p><p><b>In summary, this round of the pandemic has not yet had a significant impact on global oil consumption, but it has significantly dampened demand expectations. However, the market may have already fully (or even overpriced) the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/799839faff99fbad6c6508c1dc1d4c04\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Swordsman 2: Hurricane</b></p><p><b>On August 29, Hurricane Ida, a Category 4 hurricane, struck the U.S. Gulf Coast, shutting down 90-95% of oil production offshore the Gulf Coast (involving a capacity of approximately 1.7 million barrels per day).</b>The hurricane was downgraded to a \"tropical storm\" 16 hours after making landfall, but it caused \"catastrophic\" damage to Louisiana's power grid. The power outage is expected to last for about three weeks, during which time it may lead to the shutdown of oil processing and chemical plants.</p><p><b>Historically, the impact of hurricanes on oil prices has been uncertain, as hurricanes may simultaneously affect oil supply and demand, and the U.S. government may also stabilize oil prices by selling strategic petroleum reserves.</b>Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (Category 5) and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 (Category 4) are the two hurricanes with the greatest economic impact in U.S. history. In 2005, a hurricane in the United States drove up oil prices within a week because the hurricane mainly disrupted oil production and supply; However, the U.S. government subsequently sold its strategic petroleum reserve, causing oil prices to decline for 2-3 months (Chart 8). In 2017, a U.S. hurricane caused oil prices to fall slightly within a week because the hurricane mainly affected refinery production, which meant that refineries' demand for crude oil weakened. The subsequent sale of strategic petroleum reserves did not stop the upward trend in oil prices in the second half of the year (Chart 9).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e98fbd93acc9858d4f588e1475352cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In summary, Hurricane Ida's overall impact on oil prices was limited: a slight rise may occur in the short term due to disruptions to oil production activities in the Gulf of Mexico. However, in the next 2-3 weeks, the prolonged power outages in Louisiana will mainly affect the production activities of oil refineries, or weaken oil demand to some extent, which may have a certain inhibitory effect on oil prices.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman Three: US Government Dumps Reserves</b></p><p><b>On August 23, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management issued an announcement stating that it plans to finalize contracts for the sale of up to 20 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves by September 13, with deliveries scheduled between October 1 and December 15 of this year. This sale is the largest since 2011.</b></p><p><b>We have reviewed the impact of large-scale sales of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the United States since 1990 on oil prices (Chart 10).</b>Since 1990, the U.S. government has conducted six sales of strategic petroleum reserves ranging from 15 to 30 million barrels. Triggers include emergencies such as war and hurricanes, as well as easing fiscal deficits, alleviating seasonal oil shortages, or appeasing voters.</p><p><b>First, overall, the sale of strategic petroleum reserves by the United States may suppress oil prices in the short term (within six months), but it is unlikely to change the medium-term (more than six months) trend.</b>The five sell-offs between 1991 and 2011 all caused oil prices to fall, with the largest drops in WTI and Brent crude oil prices ranging from 20-44% and 16-45% respectively, with the largest drops lasting about 1-3 months, averaging 52 days. After Hurricane Harvey in 2017, oil prices rose instead of falling due to the small scale of strategic petroleum reserve sales (only 15 million barrels) and the slow pace of release (lasting about four months).</p><p><b>Second, if the scale of reserve dumping is large (such as exceeding 30 million barrels in 2000 and 2011) or the pace of selling is rapid (such as taking only two months in 1991), the corresponding oil price adjustment will be greater.</b></p><p><b>Third, the price movements of WTI and Brent oil did not diverge significantly during the US dumping of reserves, indicating that the US dumping of reserves will have a global impact on the crude oil market.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e046e19bc7f6b35c7d9957201c2eab8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd944ce72bd31291da7afd82aa39971a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>We believe that the main reason for this sale of strategic petroleum reserves is that the Biden administration hopes to curb oil prices to alleviate inflationary pressures.</b></p><p><b>First, the growth rate of oil prices is highly correlated with the trend of US inflation indicators.</b>Looking at the structure of the US CPI, according to data released by the BLS in July, the energy sub-item (including energy products and energy services) accounted for 7.2% of the US CPI, while the transportation services sub-item accounted for 5.3%. We calculate that the two factors contributed 2 percentage points to the 5.4% year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI in July. Historical data shows that the US CPI is highly correlated with the monthly year-on-year growth rate of oil prices (Chart 11), because the prices of goods and services other than energy products are generally relatively stable.</p><p><b>Secondly, Biden expressed concerns about high gasoline prices in the United States during his speech on August 11.</b>He stated that the United States will strengthen regulation of the oil market in the future and crack down on illegal activities that inflate oil prices. It is worth noting that historically, the price trends of US gasoline and crude oil have basically matched, but in 2021, the increase in US gasoline prices significantly exceeded that of crude oil. In particular, the correction in WTI crude oil prices since July did not lead to a decline in gasoline prices (Chart 12). Meanwhile, Biden addressed OPEC, stating that the production cuts implemented after the pandemic should be reversed as the global economy recovers in order to lower the consumer prices of petroleum products. U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan also stated that OPEC+'s plan to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day starting in August was \"far from enough,\" and indicated that the White House was in contact with OPEC member countries regarding the importance of competitive markets, which had triggered market panic about U.S. interference in OPEC+'s production decisions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/359ab0b4d89955b5d6d39ea5450d972d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In summary, if the strategic petroleum reserve sale is 20 million barrels and is to be released in less than three months, then the scale and pace of this sale will be larger and faster than the historical average. Meanwhile, considering that the Biden administration currently has a strong desire to curb oil prices to alleviate inflationary pressures, the possibility of it increasing policy efforts or introducing more measures in the future cannot be ruled out. In summary, the US government's actions, such as dumping reserves, may have a significant suppressive effect on oil prices in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>The oil price target range for September-December this year has been lowered to $65-75 per barrel.</b></p><p><b>Based on our overall assessment, we have lowered our international crude oil price target range for September-December this year to $65-75 per barrel, and we do not rule out the possibility that oil prices may fall below $65 per barrel in the short term during this period.</b></p><p><b>First, on the demand side,</b>We believe that the marginal impact of this round of the pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand is limited, but<b>We are more cautious in our assessment of global oil demand in the second half of the year.</b>Furthermore, since the epidemic in China has been brought under control while the epidemic in the United States is still spreading,<b>Brent crude oil prices are likely to remain relatively strong against WTI crude oil for the next 1-2 months.</b></p><p>Previously, the offsetting forces of \"herd immunity\" and \"pandemic counterattack\" were considered (it now seems that the force of \"pandemic counterattack\" may be stronger). We expect crude oil demand to maintain a growth rate similar to that of the first half of the year in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter of this year, there is still ample room for recovery in the service sector and related oil demand in the United States and major developed economies. However, it should be noted that summer in the Northern Hemisphere is usually the season with the strongest demand for service industries such as transportation and tourism (the number of global flights peaks between July and September each year, Chart 6). The current round of the pandemic has impacted the service sector this quarter. Therefore, even if the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic subsides in the fourth quarter, global demand for petroleum products may not recover as quickly as previously expected, as winter itself is not conducive to economic activities such as transportation.</p><p><b>Secondly, on the supply side, the US government's release of reserves will increase oil supply in October and December this year, during which time oil prices are likely to be under pressure.</b>(Furthermore, if the new wave of the pandemic in the United States is not effectively controlled in October, oil prices may fall below $65 per barrel due to negative factors related to both supply and demand.)<b>However, without considering the impact of the US dumping of reserves, the tight crude oil supply will remain in the second half of the year, which is the key reason why we have not significantly lowered our oil price target range.</b></p><p><b>We believe that the key factors limiting significant production increases by U.S. oil companies and the OPEC+ group in the second half of the year (such as repairing corporate debt or national fiscal deficits, and the need for economic transformation) remain unchanged.</b>As of now, the supply constraints in the global crude oil market are largely in line with our expectations.<b>In the United States,</b>U.S. crude oil inventories remain low, and the number of U.S. crude oil drilling rigs remains weaker than historical performance (Chart 13).<b>Regarding OPEC+,</b>On July 18, OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day each month starting in August.<b>On September 1, OPEC+ announced that it would maintain its production increase plan, but the extent of this increase remained restrained.</b>OPEC production in July this year was only 26.66 million barrels per day, which is still 3.2 million barrels per day lower than the 2019 average (11% less), while the EIA statistics show that global oil consumption in July was only 2.1 million barrels per day lower than the 2019 average (only 2% less). Assuming OPEC increases production by 400,000 barrels per day per month starting in August, the increase may still be less than the increase in global oil demand (Chart 14).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad43a3241848d00f3bbe66eba485218d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Third, regarding the financial environment,</b>Although the Federal Reserve is likely to begin implementing Taper within the year (November or December), the US monetary easing environment will not tighten suddenly. In addition, the Fed is paying special attention to communication with the market in this round, and the US financial market may remain relatively stable in the second half of the year.<b>The probability of a significant strengthening of the US dollar is low.</b>(Refer to the report \"The US Dollar Next\"). However, since the August non-farm payroll data somewhat disrupted market expectations, we still need to be wary of the risk of volatility in financial markets before and after the Federal Reserve officially announces Taper. Around the time of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 22, as specific decisions regarding Taper may be announced at the meeting, a decline in risk appetite and a stronger dollar may cause oil prices to fall in the short term. At that time, the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel cannot be ruled out.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AVil3ZOAN09SphKITpHHrQ\">钟正生经济研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/692502bb8980265a56b3787aba9119b3","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AVil3ZOAN09SphKITpHHrQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168523595","content_text":"核心摘要\n今年7月以来，国际油价经历大幅震荡下行，这背后有三个关键词——病毒、飓风和美国政府。上述“三剑客”将对今年9月以后的国际油价产生复杂影响，本文重点讨论其影响并再次展望今年下半年油价走势。\n剑客一：Delta变异病毒。今年7月以后，全球新冠疫情因Delta变异病毒而进一步恶化，美国和中国作为全球前两大石油消费国均受影响。本轮疫情暂时仍未对全球石油消费造成明显冲击，但显著打击了需求预期。国际能源署（IEA）8月报告中，将2021年下半年原油需求预估下调55万桶/日。考虑到，今年6-7月全球石油消费维持强劲、全球航班数据显示8月需求不弱、主要经济体本轮防疫政策力度有限等，新一轮疫情对全球经济活动及石油需求的边际影响或有限。今年7-8月WTI原油期货非商业多头占比下滑至疫情以来新低。目前市场可能已经充分（甚至过度）pricein本轮疫情对于下半年石油需求的冲击。\n剑客二：飓风。8月29日登陆美国的艾达飓风广受市场关注。参考2005年卡特里娜飓风和2017年哈维飓风的影响，我们判断，本次艾达飓风对油价的影响整体有限：短期或表现为小幅拉升，因墨西哥湾石油生产活动受阻；但在未来的2-3周，路易斯安那州的持续性停电将主要影响石油加工厂的生产活动，或一定程度上减弱石油需求并对油价形成一定抑制作用。\n剑客三：美国政府抛储。8月23日美国能源部宣布拟至多出售2000万桶战略原油储备，于今年10月1日至12月15日之间交付，出售规模为2011年以来最高。我们梳理了1990年以来美国6次大规模出售战略石油储备对油价的影响。整体来看，美国出售战略石油储备或短期（半年内）抑制国际油价。1991年-2011年期间的五次出售均造成了油价下跌，WTI和布伦特油价最大跌幅分别为20-44%和16-45%区间，时间间隔在1-3个月左右。本次出售的规模和节奏或将大于和快于历史平均水平。同时，不排除拜登政府后续加大政策力度以抑制油价的可能性。美国政府抛储等行动可能对今年下半年油价形成较为明显的抑制作用。\n综合判断，我们下调2021年9-12月国际原油价格目标区间至65-75美元/桶区间，且不排除油价短期下探至65美元/桶下方的可能性。1）需求方面，虽然本轮疫情对全球经济活动和石油需求的边际影响有限，但我们对下半年全球石油需求的判断更加谨慎。此外，由于中国疫情已经控制而美国疫情仍在蔓延，布伦特原油价格可能在未来1-2个月仍保持对WTI原油的相对强势。2）供给方面，美国政府抛储将提高今年10-12月的石油供给，期间油价大概率承压。但若不考虑美国抛储的影响，下半年原油供给偏紧的格局仍将维持，这也是我们并未大幅下调油价目标区间的关键原因。3）金融环境方面，即使美联储在年内实施Taper，下半年美国金融市场或保持相对稳定，美元大幅走强的概率也不高。不过，仍需警惕的是，美联储正式宣布Taper前后金融市场的波动风险，届时不能排除油价跌破65美元/桶的可能性。\n风险提示：全球新冠疫情影响超预期，OPEC+增产幅度超预期，美联储政策超预期。\n今年7月以来，国际油价经历大幅震荡下行，这背后有三个关键词——病毒、飓风和美国政府（图表1）。\n7月5日，WTI原油和布伦特油价分别涨至76.3和77.2美元/桶的高位。但好景不长，Delta新冠变异病毒的全球扩散持续引发市场恐慌，叠加阿联酋与OPEC+协议出现短暂分歧，致使油价上行趋势终结。8月以来，国际油价连续三周下跌，其中8月11日美国白宫呼吁OPEC+增产，加剧了油价的下行趋势。8月20日WTI原油和布伦特原油分别跌至62.1和65.2美元/桶，距离7月5日高点分别下跌19%和16%。\n8月下旬，墨西哥钻机平台火灾与美国墨西哥湾“艾达”飓风对石油供给的扰动，助力油价强力反弹，WTI原油和布伦特原油在8月23-30日期间分别涨11%和13%，布伦特油价重新企稳于70美元/桶，但WTI油价持续低于70美元/桶，二者价差不断拉大。8月23日，美国能源部宣布拟于今年10-12月出售至多2000万桶战略原油储备，又为后续油价走势增添变数。\n\n我们在2021年6月判断，2021年下半年国际油价主要维持在70-80美元/桶区间，同时不排除油价短时间升破80美元/桶的可能（参考2021年6月30日报告《油价会不会是下一个“灰犀牛”？》）。但Delta变异病毒对中美等石油需求大国的冲击、美国飓风对供给的扰动、以及美国政府通过抛储等手段企图抑制油价，这些均超出我们此前的预期。上述“三剑客”将对今年9月以后的油价产生复杂影响，本文重点讨论其影响并再次展望今年下半年油价走势。\n剑客一：Delta变异病毒\n今年7月以后，全球新冠疫情因Delta变异病毒而进一步恶化（图表2），其中美国和中国作为全球前两大石油消费国，其疫情影响受到原油市场高度关注。中国方面，7月以前本土新增确诊数基本保持个位数，但8月上旬最严重时本土病例日增破百。在此背景下，多地政府重新加强防疫管控，市场开始担忧交通出行等活动减少及相关石油产品需求的减少。尤其是，6月和7月中国自沙特进口原油数量（季调）环比连续下滑6.8%和6.6%，且7月进口数量为2020年10月以来新低（图表3）。美国方面，新冠单日新增确诊数从7月以前的2万人以下，升至8月的10万人以上。疫情抬头叠加疫苗接种速度缓慢，使美国政府不得不推迟宣布经济的彻底解封。\n\n因变异病毒扰动，国际机构陆续下调2021年下半年原油需求预测，期货市场做多原油情绪受到抑制。国际能源署（IEA）在8月报告中将2021年下半年原油需求预估下调55万桶/日，将全年全球石油需求下调10万桶/日至9620万桶/日。EIA和OPEC的8月报告保持各自对2021年和2022年世界石油需求增长预测不变，但欧佩克预计2021年对欧佩克原油的需求将减少20万桶/日至2740万桶/日。若将EIA在8月的预测与6月比较，其预测2021年11月和12月全球石油产品消费量分别减少了35万桶/日和21万桶/日（图表4）。同时，原油市场持续price in新一轮疫情冲击，IPE期货交易结果显示，6月下旬以来，WTI非商业多头占比开始下滑，并继续创下疫情以来新低，多头的抛售也加剧了油价的下行（图表5）。\n\n我们判断，新一轮新冠疫情对全球经济活动及石油需求的边际影响可能有限。第一，今年6、7月全球石油消费在疫情扰动下维持强劲，本轮疫情对石油需求的冲击尚未显现。对比EIA在6月和8月更新的数据，今年6、7月全球石油实际消费量反而超预期增加，分别超过6月预测值36万桶/日和30万/桶日。第二，高频数据显示8月全球交通需求不弱。例如，Flightradar24统计的全球航班数在7月和8月期间并未大幅减少，且当前水平已经接近2019年疫情前的水平（图表6）。第三，主要经济体本轮防疫政策力度有限，继而对经济活动和石油需求的影响有限。中国、日本等亚洲经济体短期升级了防疫管控，但力度仍较有限；英国、德国和美国等欧美经济体在疫苗保护下趋于“躺平”。据牛津大学Our World in Data网站测算，新一轮疫情爆发后，主要经济体政府防控疫情的“严格指数”（Stringency Index）并未显著超过今年年初水平（图表7）。\n总之，本轮疫情暂时仍未对全球石油消费造成明显冲击，但显著打击了需求预期。不过，目前市场可能已经充分（甚至过度）price in本轮疫情对于下半年石油需求的冲击。\n\n剑客二：飓风\n8月29日，美国墨西哥湾地区遭遇四级飓风“艾达”，导致墨西哥湾近海90-95%的石油生产关闭（涉及产能约170万桶/日）。该飓风在登陆16小时后降级为“热带风暴”，但其对路易斯安那州的电网造成“灾难性”破坏。预计停电将持续3周左右，期间或导致石油加工和化工厂停产。\n历史上，飓风对油价的影响并不确定，因飓风可能同时影响石油供需，且美国政府还可能通过出售战略石油储备以平抑油价。2005年“卡特里娜”飓风（五级）和2017年哈维飓风（四级）是美国历史上对经济影响最大的两次飓风。2005年美国飓风在一周内拉升油价，因飓风主要破坏了石油生产和供给；但美国政府随后出售战略石油储备，令油价持续2-3个月下行（图表8）。2017年美国飓风在一周内使油价小幅下跌，原因是飓风主要影响炼油厂生产，意味着炼油厂对原油的需求减弱；而随后战略石油储备的出售并未阻止下半年油价上行趋势（图表9）。\n\n总之，本次艾达飓风对油价的影响整体有限：短期或表现为小幅拉升，因墨西哥湾石油生产活动受阻；但在未来的2-3周，路易斯安那州的持续性停电将主要影响石油加工厂的生产活动，或一定程度上减弱石油需求，这或对油价形成一定抑制作用。\n剑客三：美国政府抛储\n8月23日，美国能源部化石能源和碳管理办公室发布公告，计划在9月13日之前确定至多出售2000万桶战略原油储备的合同，并于今年10月1日至12月15日之间交付。这次出售规模为2011年以来最高。\n我们梳理了1990年以来美国历次大规模出售战略石油储备对油价的影响（图表10）。1990年以来美国政府进行过6次规模在1500-3000万桶的战略石油储备出售，触发因素包括战争、飓风等紧急事件，以及缓解财政赤字、缓解季节性用油紧张、或讨好选民等。\n第一，整体来看，美国出售战略石油储备或短期（半年内）抑制油价，但难改中期（半年以上）趋势。1991年-2011年期间的五次出售均造成了油价下跌，WTI和布伦特油价最大跌幅分别为20-44%和16-45%区间，最大跌幅时间间隔在1-3个月左右、平均为52天。而2017年哈维飓风后，由于战略石油储备出售规模较小（仅1500万桶）、且释放节奏较慢（持续约4个月），油价不跌反涨。\n第二，如果抛储规模较大（如2000年和2011年均超过3000万桶）或者抛售节奏较快（如1991年仅耗时2个月），则相应油价调整幅度也越大。\n第三，美国抛储期间的WTI和布伦特油价走势并未发生明显背离，说明美国抛储将对原油市场产生全球性的影响。\n\n我们认为，本次战略石油储备出售的主要原因在于，拜登政府希望抑制油价以缓解通胀压力。\n首先，油价增速与美国通胀指标走势高度相关。从美国CPI的结构出发，据BLS在7月公布的数据，能源分项（包括能源品和能源服务）占美国CPI的比重为7.2%，交通运输服务分项占比5.3%。我们测算，在7月美国CPI同比增速的5.4%中，二者合计拉动就有了2个百分点。历史数据显示，美国CPI与油价月度同比增速走势高度相关（图表11），因为除能源品外的其他商品和服务价格通常是相对稳定的。\n其次，8月11日拜登演讲时表达了对美国汽油价格高企的担忧。他表示，未来美国将加强对石油市场的监管，打击哄抬油价的违法行为。注意到，历史上美国汽油和原油价格走势基本匹配，但2021年美国汽油价格涨幅明显超过原油，尤其7月以来WTI原油价格回调并未带动汽油价格回落（图表12）。同时，拜登“喊话”OPEC称，疫情后实施的减产计划应该随着全球经济复苏而扭转，以降低石油产品消费价格。美国国家安全顾问沙利文当日也表示，OPEC+计划自8月开始逐月增产40万桶/日“远远不够”，且表示白宫正在就竞争性市场的重要性与欧佩克成员国进行接触，这一度引发市场对于美国干预OPEC+生产决策的恐慌。\n\n总之，如果本次战略石油储备出售规模为2000万桶，且将于不到3个月的时间里释放，那么这次出售的规模和节奏将大于和快于历史平均水平。同时考虑到，拜登政府当前有强烈意愿抑制油价以缓解通胀压力，不排除其后续加大政策力度或出台更多措施的可能性。综合来看，美国政府抛储等行动，可能对今年下半年油价形成较为明显的抑制作用。\n下调今年9-12月油价目标区间至65-75美元/桶\n综合判断，我们下调今年9-12月国际原油价格目标区间至65-75美元/桶区间，且不排除在此期间油价短期下探至65美元/桶下方的可能性。\n第一，需求方面，我们认为本轮疫情对全球经济活动和石油需求的边际影响有限，但我们对下半年全球石油需求的判断更加谨慎。此外，由于中国疫情已经控制而美国疫情仍在蔓延，布伦特原油价格可能在未来1-2个月仍保持对WTI原油的相对强势。\n此前，考虑到“群体免疫”和“疫情反扑”两股力量的对冲（目前看来，“疫情反扑”的力量可能会更强一些）。我们预计原油需求在下半年或保持与上半年相近的增长速度。今年四季度，美国及主要发达经济体服务业以及相关石油需求仍有充分复苏空间。但需要注意，北半球夏季通常是交通运输、旅游业等服务业需求最旺盛的季节（全球航班数量在每年7-9月达到峰值，图表6）。而本轮疫情影响了本季度的服务业，所以即使四季度新冠疫情影响消退，由于冬季本身并不利于交通出行等经济活动的开展，因此全球石油产品需求或难如此前预期得那样快速修复。\n第二，供给方面，美国政府抛储将提高今年10-12月的石油供给，期间油价大概率承压。（且若10月美国新一轮疫情仍未得到有效控制，油价可能因供需双重利空而跌破65美元/桶。）但若不考虑美国抛储的影响，下半年原油供给偏紧的格局仍将维持，这也是我们并未大幅下调油价目标区间的关键原因。\n我们认为，下半年限制美国石油企业和OPEC+集团大幅增产的关键因素（修复企业负债或国家财政赤字、经济转型需求等）不变。截至目前，全球原油市场“供给约束”情况基本符合我们的预期。美国方面，美国原油库存仍然维持低位，美国原油钻机数量仍然弱于历史表现（图表13）；OPEC+方面，7月18日OPEC+同意自8月开始逐月增产40万桶/日，9月1日OPEC+宣布维持增产计划不变，但这一幅度仍然是克制的。今年7月OPEC产量仅2666万桶/日，比2019年平均水平相比仍有320万桶/日的差距（少11%），而EIA统计的7月全球石油消费量与2019年均值的差距仅为210万桶/日（仅少2%）。假设OPEC自8月开始每月增产40万桶/日，其增产幅度或仍不及全球石油需求的增加（图表14）。\n\n第三，金融环境方面，虽然美联储大概率在年内（11或12月）开始实施Taper，但美国货币宽松环境不会骤然收紧，加上本轮美联储格外注重与市场的沟通，下半年美国金融市场或保持相对稳定，美元大幅走强的概率不大（参考报告《美元下一步》）。不过，由于8月非农数据一定程度干扰了市场预期，仍需警惕美联储正式宣布Taper前后金融市场的波动风险。9月22日美联储议息会议前后，由于本次会议可能宣布有关Taper的具体决策，风险偏好回落和美元走强或使油价短期下挫，届时不能排除油价跌破65美元/桶的可能性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SCO":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"USO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"DWT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}