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点金胜手Max

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- 点金胜手Max点金胜手Max
  ·2025-02-21
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$
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- 点金胜手Max点金胜手Max
  ·2024-06-12
  $苹果(AAPL)$ love it
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- 点金胜手Max点金胜手Max
  ·2024-06-12
  $苹果(AAPL)$ so sweet
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- 点金胜手Max点金胜手Max
  ·2024-04-28
  okojkookokkkkkbbbvggggg
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- 点金胜手Max点金胜手Max
  ·2024-01-11
  hjhggffffffcfffgffffccc
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- 点金胜手Max点金胜手Max
  ·2023-03-23
  nnnn
  CICC Commentary on the FOMC: The Fed's "Middle Route"
  中金指出，加息终点临近，但降息路径仍有变数。在通胀回落和银行问题造成信用收缩的情况下，下半年可能逐步开启降息的大门。
  CICC Commentary on the FOMC: The Fed's "Middle Route"
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- 点金胜手Max点金胜手Max
  ·2023-03-23
  nnn
  Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index opens 0.14% higher, Tencent Holdings rises 1.84% after results
  3月23日讯，美联储加息25个基点符预期。港股小幅高开，恒指涨0.14%，国指涨0.22%，恒生科技指数涨0.04%。盘面上，大型科技股涨跌不一，百度、京东、阿里巴巴走低，腾讯控股绩后涨1.84%，Q
  Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index opens 0.14% higher, Tencent Holdings rises 1.84% after results
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- 点金胜手Max点金胜手Max
  ·2023-01-13
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ okbBanannn
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- 点金胜手Max点金胜手Max
  ·2023-01-12
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ jnsnnsnnnnnn
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- 点金胜手Max点金胜手Max
  ·2023-01-11
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ h
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09:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC Commentary on the FOMC: The Fed's \"Middle Route\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2321910577","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"中金指出，加息终点临近，但降息路径仍有变数。在通胀回落和银行问题造成信用收缩的情况下，下半年可能逐步开启降息的大门。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>CICC points out that the end of the rate hike is approaching, but the path of interest rate cuts remains uncertain. With declining inflation and credit contraction caused by banking problems, the door to interest rate cuts may be gradually opened in the second half of the year. The highly anticipated March FOMC meeting has come to a close. This meeting is likely to attract more attention than any other because, just two weeks before the meeting, the market experienced a huge fluctuation, from believing that rate hike might accelerate by 50 basis points again in March to believing that there might be no rate hike or even a rate cut soon after risks in the European and American banking systems were exposed. The Federal Reserve faces a difficult tightrope walk between fighting inflation and preventing risks, and the market is looking forward to getting more answers from this Fed meeting about how policy will respond in the future.</p><p>Judging from the results,<b>The Federal Reserve has chosen a \"middle course\" this time: continuing its rate hike of 25 basis points to 4.75-5%, but at the same time hinting that the rate hike may be gradually coming to an end.</b>Meanwhile, the predictions of economic data and future rate hike paths in the dot plot (dot plot) have not changed much. Perhaps, faced with the difficult balance between rate hike and risk prevention, and neither of which has yet reached the point where urgent action is needed,<b>A \"middle path\" of holding rates steady is also a viable option, because any excessive response could trigger unexpected adverse market maneuvers, and excessive changes in rate hike paths could easily put the Federal Reserve in a passive position with no room for maneuver.</b>For example, if the Federal Reserve overemphasizes financial system risks and stops rate hike this time, the market may begin to worry about the possibility of unknown greater risks after a brief period of excitement.</p><p>Various asset classes reacted strongly to the results, with US Treasury yields and the US dollar falling, gold rising, and US stocks fluctuating repeatedly and ultimately closing sharply lower (but mainly because Treasury Secretary Yellen did not make a statement at the Senate hearing about bailing out all bank savings).<b>This fully demonstrates that the market is also striving to digest the information from this meeting and find consensus from it.</b>However, based on historical experience, trading in the short two hours following a meeting does not have much predictive significance for subsequent market trends, and in fact, it often reverses.</p><p>We provide further comments on the specific content of this meeting below for investors' reference.</p><p>I. rate hike Path: The End is Near, but the Path to Interest Rate Cuts Remains Uncertain</p><p>The meeting decided to continue the rate hike of 25 basis points to 4.75-5%, which was entirely within the market's already fully traded expectations (pre-meeting CME interest rate futures implied an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the March FOMC meeting).</p><p><b>Regarding the future rate hike path that the market is more focused on, the Federal Reserve is gradually hinting that the end of the rate hike may be approaching.</b>This is reflected in several wording changes, such as deletion. \"ongoing increase\", add \"closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy\", It emphasizes the tightening effect of current banking problems on current credit conditions, etc.</p><p><b>However, the Federal Reserve did not \"lock itself in\".</b>For example, the rate hike end point and 2024 interest rate cut path given by the dot plot and the December FOMC have changed almost little (the rate hike high remained at 5.125%, and the end of 2024 was 4.25%), although it is expected that \"ten thousand mountains have been overcome\" during this period. Meanwhile, at the press conference, Powell also stated that cutting interest rates this year is not a basic assumption for Federal Reserve officials.</p><p><b>Looking ahead, we believe it is relatively certain that the finish line in rate hike is approaching.</b>(Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current banking problems will lead to a credit crunch, which in turn will have a dampening effect on growth and inflation.)<b>However, the path of interest rate cuts remains highly uncertain, depending on the future development of inflation and current financial system risks.</b>Excessive expectations of interest rate cuts actually implied concerns that the banking system might face further risks in the future.<b>This means that unless systemic risks escalate further, the room for further decline in the 10-year US Treasury yields at its current level is relatively limited.</b></p><p>Chart 1: Federal Reserve Dot Plot Long-Term Target Interest Rate Estimates</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baf52ae457ebc0c3d370c50deafe7a79\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p>Chart 2: March 2023 FOMC Dot Chart</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7bd33613964ce130e9c34c6f08a5984\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p>Chart 3: Implied rate hike Probability of CME Interest Rate Futures</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d63ac6da9e20062794e29fa72fc8e05\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: CME, CICC Research Department</p><p>Chart 4: Fed Economic Forecasts at Different Meeting Times</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c18a676d21b952864041c7d53c1604\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>II. Is the policy response to banking issues sufficient? Currently, the overall approach is still to \"address the root cause.\"</p><p>At the meeting, Powell mentioned that recent banking risks are an outlier, and that the U.S. financial system as a whole remains sound and resilient.</p><p>This meeting maintained the previous shrinking balance sheet pace, namely a monthly cap of $95 billion ($60 billion in Treasury Bond + $35 billion in MBS). Since the Federal Reserve began its shrinking balance sheet last June, its balance sheet has fallen from $8.9 trillion in the middle of last year to $8.3 trillion.</p><p>Since the exposure of bank risks, the market has been paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's policy response and possible further policy preparations.<b>We believe that while policies are effective, the main question is whether they are \"addressing the root causes.\"</b>For example, directly purchasing corporate bonds in 2020 was the right solution because the problems at the time were mainly concentrated in non-financial enterprises rather than the financial system. Looking back at the present,<b>The core of the current problem lies in the liquidity of small and medium-sized banks. On the one hand, there is a possible bank run by depositors, and on the other hand, a large amount of unrealized investment losses have led to a liquidity gap.</b>。</p><p>Regarding the former, while the Treasury Department and the FDIC can have some effect on deposit protection for some banks that are already in trouble, it is difficult to cover banks that are not in trouble in the foreseeable future (which is why US stocks plummeted in late trading today because Yellen stated that she was not considering full support for savings at all banks). For the latter, the Federal Reserve's BTFP program provides relatively ample support in terms of terms and collateral conditions. Collateral can be used to apply for a one-year loan at par value rather than market value, with an interest rate of 1-year OIS + 10bp (currently 4.69%). Therefore, from this perspective, the Federal Reserve's policy is still \"targeted\".</p><p><b>However, this cannot be simply and one-sidedly interpreted as the Federal Reserve restarting QE.</b>The recent significant expansion of the balance sheet is not a traditional QE-style asset purchase, but a short-term...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>To cope with borrowing during liquidity shortages (the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS continue to shrink, indicating that the shrinking balance sheet is still ongoing; the increase is mainly in loans, including primary credit, other credit support and BTFP), the two differ greatly in their purchase methods, transmission paths and impact methods.</p><p>Unlike QE, given the current tight liquidity situation, it is foreseeable that financial institutions will likely be more cautious about their balance sheets and credit expansion. Therefore, we are concerned that financial institutions may find it difficult to make large-scale credit derivatives and transmit this liquidity.</p><p>Chart 5: Changes in the main components of the Federal Reserve's asset side</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b80f7267e97edf79f74ff682c7f467b\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>Chart 6: Changes in the main components of the Federal Reserve's liability side</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584b4611b3207d9060ea843795203e3f\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>III. Growth and Inflation: Resilient Growth at the Beginning of the Year vs. the Effects of Credit Contraction Caused by Banking Problems</p><p>The Federal Reserve's forecasts for inflation and growth remained largely unchanged this time, with only some minor adjustments made, such as raising GDP from 0.5% in December to 0.4%, the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.5%, and the core PCE from 3.5% to 3.6%.</p><p>On the one hand, economic data over the past month or two has indeed shown strong resilience; On the other hand, the impact of the latest banking system problems on growth and inflation through credit contraction may take time to gradually become apparent. Powell mentioned that a soft landing is still possible, but his confidence in it seems to be gradually decreasing.</p><p>However, our overall expectation is that US growth is likely to gradually slow down or even head towards recession. Moreover, if further problems in the banking system increase recessionary pressure, it is not a bad thing from the perspective of suppressing inflation, because although M2 has turned negative, the still too high credit growth rate may also explain the slow decline in inflation.</p><p>Looking ahead, the current low savings rate of American residents and the fact that excess savings are mostly in the hands of high-income groups pose a risk of non-linear changes in the seemingly resilient service consumption sector. We predict that by the end of the second quarter, the US CPI and core CPI will fall to around 3% and 4% year-on-year, respectively.</p><p>Chart 7: U.S. Industrial and Commercial Loans vs. M2</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1152d63a8c60ed94a9be31a0fcbf3ea9\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>Chart 8: US Inflation and rate hike Path Forecast</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6328451ff1154e976da40131aa03310\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>IV. Market Impact: Too much expectation of short-term interest rate cuts has been taken into account, but the possibility of medium-term interest rate cuts has</p><p>In terms of incremental information, the FOMC meeting confirmed that the end of the rate hike is approaching, but did not provide further easing guidance at the current level. This is partly because inflation has not yet returned to a level that makes the Fed more comfortable, and the banking problem has not been spiraling downwards all along.<b>In other words, the Federal Reserve's current intermediate course may still provide timely policy support if it encounters a greater escalation of risks. However, until then, excessive expectations of interest rate cuts may not be necessary.</b></p><p><b>We believe that if market sentiment stabilizes in the short term, it will actually help alleviate panic and make up for some expectations of excessively sharp interest rate cuts. In the medium term, whether we expect inflation to continue to decline or the credit contraction caused by the current banking problems, the door to gradually opening interest rate cuts in the second half of the year may still exist.</b></p><p><b>► US stocks: Current valuations and earnings mix are still not entirely comfortable.</b>Valuations remain high (the S&P 500's 12-month dynamic valuation is 17.6 times, close to one standard deviation above the mean), and earnings may continue to be under pressure (the market currently expects the S&P 500's earnings growth rate to fall to 2.3% in 2023, and we estimate it may fall further to -5.6%). Therefore, we maintain our \"bullish first, bearish first\" judgment, but we are not pessimistic about the prospects for a rebound in US stocks after inflation gradually declines in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>► US Treasury yields: Too much expectation of interest rate cuts has been taken into account in the short term, and the room for further significant declines is limited unless systemic risks escalate.</b>With recent rate hike expectations falling, long-term US Treasury yields have declined significantly. At the current end of the rate hike, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds may fluctuate around 3.5%, considering the historical inversion of the 3M 10S spread (the average inversion of the 3M 10S spread since the 1960s has been around 150 basis points). Key factors to focus on going forward include a cooling labor market and a faster decline in inflation after 5%.</p><p><b>► USD: Support level 100, resistance level 103, then 106; Looking at the trend turning point and China's growth in the second half of the year</b>Against the backdrop of a rapid decline in US Treasury yields recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>The changes were relatively small. This is because while the liquidity tightening and risk aversion brought about by the exposure of risks in European and American banks can provide support, the rapid cooling of expectations in rate hike has also offset this to some extent. Looking ahead, based on our own \"cheap money\" indicators, we believe that the the US Dollar Index support level is at 100, and the resistance level is at 103, followed by 106. The real trend turning point will depend on China's growth in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>► Gold: The next opportunity comes from rising expectations of a recession and interest rate cuts after the second quarter.</b>The risk aversion triggered by recent bank risk exposure has indeed supported gold's performance. If short-term risk aversion improves, there will be some overdraft, and the confirmation of recession and interest rate cut expectations may become the next opportunity.</p><p>Chart 9: Current US stock valuations remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbfa035ffd1ea2c10296e4c424912ba7\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>Chart 10: We maintain our judgment that US stocks are \"seeking to rise before falling\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fb61588f17c2daf48f86e004f07fac\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Commentary on the FOMC: The Fed's \"Middle Route\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Commentary on the FOMC: The Fed's \"Middle Route\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-23 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>CICC points out that the end of the rate hike is approaching, but the path of interest rate cuts remains uncertain. With declining inflation and credit contraction caused by banking problems, the door to interest rate cuts may be gradually opened in the second half of the year. The highly anticipated March FOMC meeting has come to a close. This meeting is likely to attract more attention than any other because, just two weeks before the meeting, the market experienced a huge fluctuation, from believing that rate hike might accelerate by 50 basis points again in March to believing that there might be no rate hike or even a rate cut soon after risks in the European and American banking systems were exposed. The Federal Reserve faces a difficult tightrope walk between fighting inflation and preventing risks, and the market is looking forward to getting more answers from this Fed meeting about how policy will respond in the future.</p><p>Judging from the results,<b>The Federal Reserve has chosen a \"middle course\" this time: continuing its rate hike of 25 basis points to 4.75-5%, but at the same time hinting that the rate hike may be gradually coming to an end.</b>Meanwhile, the predictions of economic data and future rate hike paths in the dot plot (dot plot) have not changed much. Perhaps, faced with the difficult balance between rate hike and risk prevention, and neither of which has yet reached the point where urgent action is needed,<b>A \"middle path\" of holding rates steady is also a viable option, because any excessive response could trigger unexpected adverse market maneuvers, and excessive changes in rate hike paths could easily put the Federal Reserve in a passive position with no room for maneuver.</b>For example, if the Federal Reserve overemphasizes financial system risks and stops rate hike this time, the market may begin to worry about the possibility of unknown greater risks after a brief period of excitement.</p><p>Various asset classes reacted strongly to the results, with US Treasury yields and the US dollar falling, gold rising, and US stocks fluctuating repeatedly and ultimately closing sharply lower (but mainly because Treasury Secretary Yellen did not make a statement at the Senate hearing about bailing out all bank savings).<b>This fully demonstrates that the market is also striving to digest the information from this meeting and find consensus from it.</b>However, based on historical experience, trading in the short two hours following a meeting does not have much predictive significance for subsequent market trends, and in fact, it often reverses.</p><p>We provide further comments on the specific content of this meeting below for investors' reference.</p><p>I. rate hike Path: The End is Near, but the Path to Interest Rate Cuts Remains Uncertain</p><p>The meeting decided to continue the rate hike of 25 basis points to 4.75-5%, which was entirely within the market's already fully traded expectations (pre-meeting CME interest rate futures implied an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the March FOMC meeting).</p><p><b>Regarding the future rate hike path that the market is more focused on, the Federal Reserve is gradually hinting that the end of the rate hike may be approaching.</b>This is reflected in several wording changes, such as deletion. \"ongoing increase\", add \"closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy\", It emphasizes the tightening effect of current banking problems on current credit conditions, etc.</p><p><b>However, the Federal Reserve did not \"lock itself in\".</b>For example, the rate hike end point and 2024 interest rate cut path given by the dot plot and the December FOMC have changed almost little (the rate hike high remained at 5.125%, and the end of 2024 was 4.25%), although it is expected that \"ten thousand mountains have been overcome\" during this period. Meanwhile, at the press conference, Powell also stated that cutting interest rates this year is not a basic assumption for Federal Reserve officials.</p><p><b>Looking ahead, we believe it is relatively certain that the finish line in rate hike is approaching.</b>(Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current banking problems will lead to a credit crunch, which in turn will have a dampening effect on growth and inflation.)<b>However, the path of interest rate cuts remains highly uncertain, depending on the future development of inflation and current financial system risks.</b>Excessive expectations of interest rate cuts actually implied concerns that the banking system might face further risks in the future.<b>This means that unless systemic risks escalate further, the room for further decline in the 10-year US Treasury yields at its current level is relatively limited.</b></p><p>Chart 1: Federal Reserve Dot Plot Long-Term Target Interest Rate Estimates</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baf52ae457ebc0c3d370c50deafe7a79\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p>Chart 2: March 2023 FOMC Dot Chart</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7bd33613964ce130e9c34c6f08a5984\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p>Chart 3: Implied rate hike Probability of CME Interest Rate Futures</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d63ac6da9e20062794e29fa72fc8e05\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: CME, CICC Research Department</p><p>Chart 4: Fed Economic Forecasts at Different Meeting Times</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c18a676d21b952864041c7d53c1604\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>II. Is the policy response to banking issues sufficient? Currently, the overall approach is still to \"address the root cause.\"</p><p>At the meeting, Powell mentioned that recent banking risks are an outlier, and that the U.S. financial system as a whole remains sound and resilient.</p><p>This meeting maintained the previous shrinking balance sheet pace, namely a monthly cap of $95 billion ($60 billion in Treasury Bond + $35 billion in MBS). Since the Federal Reserve began its shrinking balance sheet last June, its balance sheet has fallen from $8.9 trillion in the middle of last year to $8.3 trillion.</p><p>Since the exposure of bank risks, the market has been paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's policy response and possible further policy preparations.<b>We believe that while policies are effective, the main question is whether they are \"addressing the root causes.\"</b>For example, directly purchasing corporate bonds in 2020 was the right solution because the problems at the time were mainly concentrated in non-financial enterprises rather than the financial system. Looking back at the present,<b>The core of the current problem lies in the liquidity of small and medium-sized banks. On the one hand, there is a possible bank run by depositors, and on the other hand, a large amount of unrealized investment losses have led to a liquidity gap.</b>。</p><p>Regarding the former, while the Treasury Department and the FDIC can have some effect on deposit protection for some banks that are already in trouble, it is difficult to cover banks that are not in trouble in the foreseeable future (which is why US stocks plummeted in late trading today because Yellen stated that she was not considering full support for savings at all banks). For the latter, the Federal Reserve's BTFP program provides relatively ample support in terms of terms and collateral conditions. Collateral can be used to apply for a one-year loan at par value rather than market value, with an interest rate of 1-year OIS + 10bp (currently 4.69%). Therefore, from this perspective, the Federal Reserve's policy is still \"targeted\".</p><p><b>However, this cannot be simply and one-sidedly interpreted as the Federal Reserve restarting QE.</b>The recent significant expansion of the balance sheet is not a traditional QE-style asset purchase, but a short-term...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>To cope with borrowing during liquidity shortages (the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS continue to shrink, indicating that the shrinking balance sheet is still ongoing; the increase is mainly in loans, including primary credit, other credit support and BTFP), the two differ greatly in their purchase methods, transmission paths and impact methods.</p><p>Unlike QE, given the current tight liquidity situation, it is foreseeable that financial institutions will likely be more cautious about their balance sheets and credit expansion. Therefore, we are concerned that financial institutions may find it difficult to make large-scale credit derivatives and transmit this liquidity.</p><p>Chart 5: Changes in the main components of the Federal Reserve's asset side</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b80f7267e97edf79f74ff682c7f467b\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>Chart 6: Changes in the main components of the Federal Reserve's liability side</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584b4611b3207d9060ea843795203e3f\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>III. Growth and Inflation: Resilient Growth at the Beginning of the Year vs. the Effects of Credit Contraction Caused by Banking Problems</p><p>The Federal Reserve's forecasts for inflation and growth remained largely unchanged this time, with only some minor adjustments made, such as raising GDP from 0.5% in December to 0.4%, the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.5%, and the core PCE from 3.5% to 3.6%.</p><p>On the one hand, economic data over the past month or two has indeed shown strong resilience; On the other hand, the impact of the latest banking system problems on growth and inflation through credit contraction may take time to gradually become apparent. Powell mentioned that a soft landing is still possible, but his confidence in it seems to be gradually decreasing.</p><p>However, our overall expectation is that US growth is likely to gradually slow down or even head towards recession. Moreover, if further problems in the banking system increase recessionary pressure, it is not a bad thing from the perspective of suppressing inflation, because although M2 has turned negative, the still too high credit growth rate may also explain the slow decline in inflation.</p><p>Looking ahead, the current low savings rate of American residents and the fact that excess savings are mostly in the hands of high-income groups pose a risk of non-linear changes in the seemingly resilient service consumption sector. We predict that by the end of the second quarter, the US CPI and core CPI will fall to around 3% and 4% year-on-year, respectively.</p><p>Chart 7: U.S. Industrial and Commercial Loans vs. M2</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1152d63a8c60ed94a9be31a0fcbf3ea9\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>Chart 8: US Inflation and rate hike Path Forecast</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6328451ff1154e976da40131aa03310\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>IV. Market Impact: Too much expectation of short-term interest rate cuts has been taken into account, but the possibility of medium-term interest rate cuts has</p><p>In terms of incremental information, the FOMC meeting confirmed that the end of the rate hike is approaching, but did not provide further easing guidance at the current level. This is partly because inflation has not yet returned to a level that makes the Fed more comfortable, and the banking problem has not been spiraling downwards all along.<b>In other words, the Federal Reserve's current intermediate course may still provide timely policy support if it encounters a greater escalation of risks. However, until then, excessive expectations of interest rate cuts may not be necessary.</b></p><p><b>We believe that if market sentiment stabilizes in the short term, it will actually help alleviate panic and make up for some expectations of excessively sharp interest rate cuts. In the medium term, whether we expect inflation to continue to decline or the credit contraction caused by the current banking problems, the door to gradually opening interest rate cuts in the second half of the year may still exist.</b></p><p><b>► US stocks: Current valuations and earnings mix are still not entirely comfortable.</b>Valuations remain high (the S&P 500's 12-month dynamic valuation is 17.6 times, close to one standard deviation above the mean), and earnings may continue to be under pressure (the market currently expects the S&P 500's earnings growth rate to fall to 2.3% in 2023, and we estimate it may fall further to -5.6%). Therefore, we maintain our \"bullish first, bearish first\" judgment, but we are not pessimistic about the prospects for a rebound in US stocks after inflation gradually declines in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>► US Treasury yields: Too much expectation of interest rate cuts has been taken into account in the short term, and the room for further significant declines is limited unless systemic risks escalate.</b>With recent rate hike expectations falling, long-term US Treasury yields have declined significantly. At the current end of the rate hike, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds may fluctuate around 3.5%, considering the historical inversion of the 3M 10S spread (the average inversion of the 3M 10S spread since the 1960s has been around 150 basis points). Key factors to focus on going forward include a cooling labor market and a faster decline in inflation after 5%.</p><p><b>► USD: Support level 100, resistance level 103, then 106; Looking at the trend turning point and China's growth in the second half of the year</b>Against the backdrop of a rapid decline in US Treasury yields recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>The changes were relatively small. This is because while the liquidity tightening and risk aversion brought about by the exposure of risks in European and American banks can provide support, the rapid cooling of expectations in rate hike has also offset this to some extent. Looking ahead, based on our own \"cheap money\" indicators, we believe that the the US Dollar Index support level is at 100, and the resistance level is at 103, followed by 106. The real trend turning point will depend on China's growth in the second half of the year.</p><p><b>► Gold: The next opportunity comes from rising expectations of a recession and interest rate cuts after the second quarter.</b>The risk aversion triggered by recent bank risk exposure has indeed supported gold's performance. If short-term risk aversion improves, there will be some overdraft, and the confirmation of recession and interest rate cut expectations may become the next opportunity.</p><p>Chart 9: Current US stock valuations remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbfa035ffd1ea2c10296e4c424912ba7\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p>Chart 10: We maintain our judgment that US stocks are \"seeking to rise before falling\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fb61588f17c2daf48f86e004f07fac\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684687\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da180aee7a0c9fd9025ec49f6dc618ee","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","FOMC":"FOMO CORP.","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4588":"碎股","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684687","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2321910577","content_text":"中金指出，加息终点临近，但降息路径仍有变数。在通胀回落和银行问题造成信用收缩的情况下，下半年可能逐步开启降息的大门。备受关注的3月FOMC会议落下帷幕。此次会议可能比任何一次都更受关注，是因为就在会议前短短两周内，市场经历了认为3月可能重新加速加息50bp、到欧美银行体系风险暴露后认为可能不加息甚至很快降息的巨大摇摆。美联储面临着抗通胀和防风险之间的走钢丝般的艰难选择，市场也期待从美联储此次会议上得到更多政策未来将如何应对的答案。从结果上来看，美联储此次选择了“中间路线”：继续加息25bp到4.75~5%，但同时暗示加息可能逐步接近尾声。同时，点阵图中对于经济数据和未来加息路径的预测（点阵图）也变化不大。或许，面对加息与防风险之前的艰难平衡、且二者暂时都还没到马上要采取紧急行动的时刻，按兵不动式的“中间路线”也不失为一种选择，因为任何过激的应对反而会引发意想不到的市场反向博弈，同时过大的加息路径变化也容易使得美联储自己陷入没有腾挪空间的被动境地，例如美联储如果此次过分强调金融系统风险并停止加息的话，市场有可能在短暂的兴奋后开始担心是否存在未知的更大风险。各类资产对此次结果反应较大，美债利率和美元回落，黄金上涨，美股则反复摆动并最终大幅收跌（但主要是因为财政部部长耶伦在参议院听证会上没有救助所有银行储蓄的表态），这充分说明，市场也努力消化此次会议的信息并从中寻找共识。不过，根据历史经验来看，会议当天后短短两个小时的交易对后续市场走势并没有太多预示性意义，甚至多数时候都会重新逆转。针对此次会议的具体内容，我们进一步点评如下，供投资者参考。一、加息路径：终点临近，但降息路径仍有变数此次会议决定继续加息25bp到4.75~5%，完全在市场早已充分交易的预期内（会前CME利率期货隐含3月FOMC会议加息25bp概率高达85%）。在市场更为关注的未来加息路径上，美联储在逐步暗示加息终点可能逐步临近，体现几个措辞上的变化上，例如删除“ongoing increase”，添加“closely monitor incoming information and    assess the implications for monetary policy”，强调当前银行问题对当前信贷条件的紧缩效果等等。不过，美联储也没有把自己“锁死”，例如点阵图和12月FOMC给出的加息终点和2024年降息路径变化几乎不大（加息高点维持在5.125%，2024年底为4.25%），尽管这期间预期“已过万重山”。同时，在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔也表示年内降息并非美联储官员的基本假设。往前看，我们认为相对比较确定的是，加息终点已经临近（鲍威尔多次强调当前银行问题会造成信用紧缩，进而对增长和通胀也将起到抑制效果），但是降息路径还有很大变数，取决于接下来通胀和当前金融系统风险的演绎，过多的降息预期其实也本来隐含了接下来银行体系可能还要面临风险的担忧，这也就意味着除非系统性风险进一步升级，10年美债利率在当前位置进一步下行的空间也相对有限。图表1：美联储点阵图长期目标利率估计资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表2：2023年3月FOMC点阵图资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表3：CME利率期货隐含加息概率资料来源：CME，中金公司研究部图表4：不同会议时点美联储经济预测资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部二、政策对银行问题的应对是否足够？目前看整体仍是“对症下药”鲍威尔在此次会议上提到近期银行风险是一个outlier，美国金融体系整体依然稳健（sound and resilient）。此次会议依然维持此前缩表节奏，即每月上限950亿美元（600亿美元国债+350亿美元MBS）。自美联储去年6月开启缩表至今，美联储资产负债表规模从去年中的8.9万亿美元一度回落至8.3万亿美元。自银行风险暴露以来，市场一直对于美联储的政策应对以及后续进一步可能的政策准备非常关注。我们认为，看政策是有有效，主要是看是否“对症下药”，例如2020年最终直接购买信用债才是对症下药是因为当时的问题主要集中在非金融企业而非金融系统。反观当前，当前问题的核心在于中小银行的流动性问题，一方面是储户可能的挤兑、另一方面是大量未兑现投资损失导致流动性缺口。针对前者，财政部和FDIC对于部分已经出问题银行的存款保护可以起到一定效果，但较难前瞻地覆盖未出问题银行（这也是为什么今天美股尾盘因为耶伦表态并没有考虑全面支持对所有银行储蓄而大跌的原因）。针对后者，美联储的BTFP项目从期限和抵押品条件上，都给与了相对充裕的支持，抵押品可以以面值（par value）而非市值申请一年的贷款，利率为1年OIS+10bp（当前为4.69%）。因此从这个角度看，美联储的政策还是“对症下药”的。但这个也不能简单且片面的理解为美联储在重新启动QE。近期资产负债表的大幅扩张并非传统意义上的QE式资产购买，而是短期金融机构为应对流动性紧张时的借款（美联储持有国债和MBS仍在继续缩减，表明缩表仍在继续；增加部分主要为贷款，包括一级信贷、其他信用支持及BTFP），二者在购买方式、传导路径和影响方式上都有很大不同。不同于QE，在当前流动性较为紧张的背景下，可以预想的是，金融机构大概率会较为谨慎的对待资产负债表和信用扩张，因此我们担心金融机构或较难据此做出较大规模的信用派生，并将这部分流动性传导出来。图表5：美联储资产端主要构成部分变化资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表6：美联储负债端主要构成部分变化资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部三、增长与通胀：年初增长韧性 vs.  银行问题造成的信用收缩效果此次美联储对于通胀和增长的预测变化不大，仅做了一些小幅调整，如GDP从12月的0.5%调到0.4%，失业率4.6%调到4.5%，核心PCE从3.5%调到3.6%等。一方面，过去一两个月经济数据的确呈现出较强韧性；但另一方面，最新发生的银行系统问题通过信用收缩带来对增长和通胀的影响可能还需要时间逐步显现。鲍威尔提到依然有软着陆的可能性，但似乎对其的确信度也在逐步降低。但我们整体的预计为美国增长大概率还是逐步放缓甚至走向衰退，而且进一步的银行系统问题如果加大衰退压力的话，从压制通胀角度也并非坏事，因为尽管M2已经转为负增长，但信贷增速依然过高可能也解释了通胀一直下行较慢。往后看，美国居民当前流量的低储蓄率、存量的超额储蓄更多在高收入人群手里，都造成当前看似有韧性的服务型消费有一定非线性变化的风险。我们预测二季度末美国CPI和核心CPI分别降至同比3%和4%左右水平。图表7：美国工商业贷款   vs. M2资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表8：美国通胀及加息路径预测资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部四、市场影响：短期降息预期计入过多，但中期降息可能性反而增加从增量信息来讲，此次FOMC会议确认了加息终点的临近，但并没有在当前的位置给出更过的宽松指引，一方面也是因为当前通胀还没有回到让美联储比较舒服的位置、同时银行问题也并非一直在螺旋向下。换言之，美联储当前的中间路线，如果遇到更大的风险升级，依然有可能及时提供政策支持。但在此之前，过多的降息预期可能也没有必要。我们认为，短期市场情绪如果稳定，反而有助于恐慌情绪缓解和一定过陡降息预期的回补。而中期维度，不论是我们预计的通胀依然有望回落，还是当前的银行问题造成的信用收缩，都有可能使得下半年逐步开启降息的大门依然存在。► 美股：当前估值和盈利组合依然并不完全舒服。估值依然偏高（标普500 指数 12 个月动态估值 17.6倍，接近均值上方一倍标准差），同时盈利或继续承压（当前市场预期 2023 年标普500指数盈利增速已回落至 2.3%，我们测算或进一步回落至-5.6%），因此我们维持“欲扬先抑”的判断，但对后半年通胀逐步回落后美股的再度反弹前景并不悲观。► 美债利率：短期对降息预期计入过多，进一步大幅下行空间有限，除非出现系统风险升级。近期加息预期回落下，长端美债利率回落明显。在当前加息终点或在5~5.25%下，结合3m10s利差历史倒挂程度（60年代以来3m10s利差平均倒挂~150bp），10年期美债利率或在3.5%左右震荡。接下来更多关注的关键因素包括劳动力市场热度降温以及通胀在5%之后更为快速的回落。► 美元：支撑位100，阻力位103后看106；趋势拐点看下半年中国增长。近期在美债利率快速回落的背景下，美元指数变动相对偏小。这是因为欧美银行风险的暴露所带来的流动性收紧和避险情绪虽然可以起到支撑，但加息预期的快速降温也起到了一定程度的对冲。往后看，结合我们自有的“便宜钱”指标，我们认为美元指数支撑位在100，阻力位103后看106，真正趋势性拐点要看下半年中国的增长。► 黄金：下一轮契机来自二季度后衰退和降息预期升温。近期银行风险暴露引发的避险情绪的确支撑了黄金的表现，短期避险情绪如果改善则有些透支，衰退和降息预期的确认可能成为下一个契机。图表9：当前美股估值依然偏高资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表10：我们维持对美股“欲扬先抑”的判断资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"FOMC":1,"UPRO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SPY":1,"DJX":0.6,".DJI":1,"SDS":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SH":0.6,"PSQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943530828,"gmtCreate":1679537639164,"gmtModify":1679537643247,"author":{"id":"4089601694653150","authorId":"4089601694653150","name":"点金胜手Max","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a9bf734ab8568daacfdb7fab20e821","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089601694653150","idStr":"4089601694653150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nnn","listText":"nnn","text":"nnn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943530828","repostId":"1183612484","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1183612484","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1679533716,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183612484?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-23 09:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index opens 0.14% higher, Tencent Holdings rises 1.84% after results","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183612484","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月23日讯，美联储加息25个基点符预期。港股小幅高开，恒指涨0.14%，国指涨0.22%，恒生科技指数涨0.04%。盘面上，大型科技股涨跌不一，百度、京东、阿里巴巴走低，腾讯控股绩后涨1.84%，Q","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 23rd, the Federal Reserve's rate hike of 25 basis points was in line with expectations. Hong Kong stocks opened slightly higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.14%, the State Index rising 0.22% and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 0.04%.</p><p>On the disk, large tech stocks are mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>Lower, Tencent Holdings rose 1.84% after results, Q4 single quarter net profit growth returned to double digits, Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">Netease</a>Millet all rose, Netease and Tencent rose; Shipping stocks rose significantly,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00316\">OOCL International</a>With a surge of more than 7%, gold stocks rose actively again,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600600\">Tsingtao Brewery</a>It opened up nearly 4% after the results. On the other hand, auto stocks, which have rebounded in a row, fell, and telecom stocks continued to pull back.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd24b602ba9da120987d99d8b1f657e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index opens 0.14% higher, Tencent Holdings rises 1.84% after results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stocks open | Hang Seng Index opens 0.14% higher, Tencent Holdings rises 1.84% after results\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-23 09:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 23rd, the Federal Reserve's rate hike of 25 basis points was in line with expectations. Hong Kong stocks opened slightly higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.14%, the State Index rising 0.22% and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 0.04%.</p><p>On the disk, large tech stocks are mixed,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a>Lower, Tencent Holdings rose 1.84% after results, Q4 single quarter net profit growth returned to double digits, Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">Netease</a>Millet all rose, Netease and Tencent rose; Shipping stocks rose significantly,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00316\">OOCL International</a>With a surge of more than 7%, gold stocks rose actively again,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600600\">Tsingtao Brewery</a>It opened up nearly 4% after the results. On the other hand, auto stocks, which have rebounded in a row, fell, and telecom stocks continued to pull back.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd24b602ba9da120987d99d8b1f657e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"LU0214875030.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"M2C\" (USD) ACC","IE0032431581.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1586":"云计算","HSI":"恒生指数","LU0029875118.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","IE00BF5LJ272.USD":"Legg Mason Martin Currie - Global Emerging Markets A Acc USD","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0140636845.USD":"施罗德大中华区股票A Acc","00700":"腾讯控股","IE00B5MMRT66.SGD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0029874905.USD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" INC","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","IE0008368742.USD":"首域中国增长基金I Acc","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1526":"科网股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183612484","content_text":"3月23日讯，美联储加息25个基点符预期。港股小幅高开，恒指涨0.14%，国指涨0.22%，恒生科技指数涨0.04%。盘面上，大型科技股涨跌不一，百度、京东、阿里巴巴走低，腾讯控股绩后涨1.84%，Q4单季净利增幅重回两位数，美团、网易、小米皆上涨，网易、腾讯上涨；海运股上涨明显，东方海外国际大涨逾7%，黄金股再度活跃上涨，青岛啤酒绩后开涨近4%。另一方面，连续反弹的汽车股下跌，电信股继续回调。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSImain":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958093110,"gmtCreate":1673576688530,"gmtModify":1676538858935,"author":{"id":"4089601694653150","authorId":"4089601694653150","name":"点金胜手Max","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a9bf734ab8568daacfdb7fab20e821","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089601694653150","idStr":"4089601694653150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>okbBanannn","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>okbBanannn","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ okbBanannn","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63b7405211c10dade55c8dedc11ee05f","width":"1284","height":"1959"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958093110","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951206307,"gmtCreate":1673484512009,"gmtModify":1676538843901,"author":{"id":"4089601694653150","authorId":"4089601694653150","name":"点金胜手Max","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a9bf734ab8568daacfdb7fab20e821","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089601694653150","idStr":"4089601694653150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>jnsnnsnnnnnn","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>jnsnnsnnnnnn","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ jnsnnsnnnnnn","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04b8d244ff0f871f10d8afec348d18f8","width":"1284","height":"1959"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951206307","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951380491,"gmtCreate":1673398090413,"gmtModify":1676538830059,"author":{"id":"4089601694653150","authorId":"4089601694653150","name":"点金胜手Max","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a9bf734ab8568daacfdb7fab20e821","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089601694653150","idStr":"4089601694653150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>h","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>h","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ h","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2f2670d7bb7ee99031c1e3c94748b087","width":"1284","height":"1959"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951380491","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}