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  ·2021-06-29
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  Goldman Sachs: What will happen if inflation continues to rise?
  目前标普500指数已处于历史新高，仅比高盛4300点的全年目标点位低1%。但高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin警告称，4300的指数预期是建立在“通胀将减少，收益率会上升，拜登部分税改计划将
  Goldman Sachs: What will happen if inflation continues to rise?
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With temporary supplementary unemployment benefits expiring within the next 3-6 months, labor supply will rebound sharply by the end of the year, wage pressures will ease, and the U.S. core CPI will fall from the current 3.8% to 2.3% next year.</p><p>However, Kostin warned that the unexpected rise in US inflation would have a significant impact on the company's valuation and profit margins. If companies fail to raise prices enough to offset inflation, rising input costs, including wages, could put pressure on profit margins.</p><p>Based on Goldman Sachs' top-down model<b>For every 1% increase in U.S. core CPI inflation above the forecast, the revenue of S&P 500 companies will increase by about 1 percentage point, but net profit margins will decline by about 10 basis points.</b>With moderate changes in inflation, the S&P 500's earnings per share forecast relative to Goldman Sachs' average forecast will remain unchanged.</p><p>The continued rise in inflation will also have a \"significant adverse impact\" on the company's valuation.</p><p>Kostin said,<b>Continued rising inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to take more tightening measures than currently expected, rate hike ahead of schedule, and lower stock valuations.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs currently expects the Federal Reserve to announce in December that it will begin tapering its bond purchases in early 2022 and begin rate hike in the second half of 2023.</p><p>Historically, the U.S. stock market has typically performed well in low-inflation market environments. Since 1960, the S&P 500 has achieved a median annual real return of 15% during periods of low inflation, compared to only 9% during periods of high inflation. During periods of high inflation, stocks perform better when inflation falls (15%) than when inflation rises (2%).</p><p>In terms of sub-sectors<b>Goldman Sachs believes that high inflation will boost the relative performance of stocks with higher pricing power. Sectors such as healthcare, energy, real estate, and consumer goods will outperform the broader market.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7e6661f82b9216df345728b0372948\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What happens if interest rates fall or rise beyond market expectations?</p><p>Goldman Sachs currently sets a benchmark target of 4,300 for the S&P 500, assuming that the 10-year US Treasury yield will rise to 1.9% by the end of 2021 and that the US stock P/E will remain stable at around 22x.</p><p>Goldman Sachs expects the rise in U.S. nominal Treasury Bond yields this year to be driven primarily by real interest rates and partly by rising global bond yields. The equity risk premium (ERP) will decline in the second half of this year, offsetting part of the impact of rising interest rates on stock valuations and keeping P/E roughly flat by the end of the year.</p><p>However, Goldman Sachs stated that if US Treasury yields fails to rise due to weak economic growth, corporate profits will also decline. This means that despite declining yields, the S&P 500 will also decline.</p><p>In another scenario, other things being equal, if interest rates rise more than Goldman Sachs expects and climb to 2.5% by the end of the year, the base level of the S&P 500 will fall to 3,550, representing a 17% decline from its current level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a18e76ae1ffa3f08ed14d09a8202109\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What will happen if Biden's tax reform fails?</p><p>Regarding Biden's tax reform, Goldman Sachs currently basically assumes that parts of all of Biden's tax proposals will become law by the end of the year and take effect in 2022, which will reduce the S&P 500's EPS by 5% compared to the forecast under current tax law. Under current tax policies, the S&P 500 is expected to earn $212 per share in 2022, representing a 10% increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c9d54e29e6f312c60991cd3c4ebb65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the details of the tax reform, Goldman Sachs expects the federal statutory corporate tax rate to be raised from 21% to 25%, instead of the 28% proposed by Biden. About half of the proposed overseas income tax increases will become law, raising the capital gains tax rate to 28% for high-income individuals.</p><p>Based on these assumptions,<b>Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500's EPS to reach $202 in 2022 (a 5% increase from 2021), while under current tax policies, it expects EPS to reach $212 in 2022, a 10% increase.</b></p><p>According to Goldman Sachs' baseline forecast of 22.3 times P/E by the end of 2021,<b>If \"tax-free reform\" occurs, the bank will raise its 2022 S&P 500 EPS forecast by 5%, supporting the target of 4,500 points.</b></p><p>Kostin also stated that growth stocks are typically boosted if corporate income tax and capital gains tax are not raised. Regarding capital gains tax, if the tax increase policy is implemented later this year, growth stocks such as technology stocks face the greatest potential risk of being sold off.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs: What will happen if inflation continues to rise?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs: What will happen if inflation continues to rise?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 23:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&P 500 is currently at a record high, just 1% below Goldman Sachs' full-year target of 4,300 points.</p><p>However, David Kostin, chief equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, warned that the index expectation of 4300 is based on the macroeconomic assumption that \"inflation will decrease, yields will rise, and part of Biden's tax reform plan will be passed into law.\" If these assumptions change, US stocks may face volatility and correction risks.</p><p>What will happen if inflation continues to rise?</p><p>Goldman Sachs' current underlying assumption is that the surge in inflation will be temporary. With temporary supplementary unemployment benefits expiring within the next 3-6 months, labor supply will rebound sharply by the end of the year, wage pressures will ease, and the U.S. core CPI will fall from the current 3.8% to 2.3% next year.</p><p>However, Kostin warned that the unexpected rise in US inflation would have a significant impact on the company's valuation and profit margins. If companies fail to raise prices enough to offset inflation, rising input costs, including wages, could put pressure on profit margins.</p><p>Based on Goldman Sachs' top-down model<b>For every 1% increase in U.S. core CPI inflation above the forecast, the revenue of S&P 500 companies will increase by about 1 percentage point, but net profit margins will decline by about 10 basis points.</b>With moderate changes in inflation, the S&P 500's earnings per share forecast relative to Goldman Sachs' average forecast will remain unchanged.</p><p>The continued rise in inflation will also have a \"significant adverse impact\" on the company's valuation.</p><p>Kostin said,<b>Continued rising inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to take more tightening measures than currently expected, rate hike ahead of schedule, and lower stock valuations.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs currently expects the Federal Reserve to announce in December that it will begin tapering its bond purchases in early 2022 and begin rate hike in the second half of 2023.</p><p>Historically, the U.S. stock market has typically performed well in low-inflation market environments. Since 1960, the S&P 500 has achieved a median annual real return of 15% during periods of low inflation, compared to only 9% during periods of high inflation. During periods of high inflation, stocks perform better when inflation falls (15%) than when inflation rises (2%).</p><p>In terms of sub-sectors<b>Goldman Sachs believes that high inflation will boost the relative performance of stocks with higher pricing power. Sectors such as healthcare, energy, real estate, and consumer goods will outperform the broader market.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7e6661f82b9216df345728b0372948\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What happens if interest rates fall or rise beyond market expectations?</p><p>Goldman Sachs currently sets a benchmark target of 4,300 for the S&P 500, assuming that the 10-year US Treasury yield will rise to 1.9% by the end of 2021 and that the US stock P/E will remain stable at around 22x.</p><p>Goldman Sachs expects the rise in U.S. nominal Treasury Bond yields this year to be driven primarily by real interest rates and partly by rising global bond yields. The equity risk premium (ERP) will decline in the second half of this year, offsetting part of the impact of rising interest rates on stock valuations and keeping P/E roughly flat by the end of the year.</p><p>However, Goldman Sachs stated that if US Treasury yields fails to rise due to weak economic growth, corporate profits will also decline. This means that despite declining yields, the S&P 500 will also decline.</p><p>In another scenario, other things being equal, if interest rates rise more than Goldman Sachs expects and climb to 2.5% by the end of the year, the base level of the S&P 500 will fall to 3,550, representing a 17% decline from its current level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a18e76ae1ffa3f08ed14d09a8202109\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What will happen if Biden's tax reform fails?</p><p>Regarding Biden's tax reform, Goldman Sachs currently basically assumes that parts of all of Biden's tax proposals will become law by the end of the year and take effect in 2022, which will reduce the S&P 500's EPS by 5% compared to the forecast under current tax law. Under current tax policies, the S&P 500 is expected to earn $212 per share in 2022, representing a 10% increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08c9d54e29e6f312c60991cd3c4ebb65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding the details of the tax reform, Goldman Sachs expects the federal statutory corporate tax rate to be raised from 21% to 25%, instead of the 28% proposed by Biden. About half of the proposed overseas income tax increases will become law, raising the capital gains tax rate to 28% for high-income individuals.</p><p>Based on these assumptions,<b>Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500's EPS to reach $202 in 2022 (a 5% increase from 2021), while under current tax policies, it expects EPS to reach $212 in 2022, a 10% increase.</b></p><p>According to Goldman Sachs' baseline forecast of 22.3 times P/E by the end of 2021,<b>If \"tax-free reform\" occurs, the bank will raise its 2022 S&P 500 EPS forecast by 5%, supporting the target of 4,500 points.</b></p><p>Kostin also stated that growth stocks are typically boosted if corporate income tax and capital gains tax are not raised. Regarding capital gains tax, if the tax increase policy is implemented later this year, growth stocks such as technology stocks face the greatest potential risk of being sold off.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634039\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6684517506a0b0f4c4c5a1c4889261","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634039","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1144270623","content_text":"目前标普500指数已处于历史新高，仅比高盛4300点的全年目标点位低1%。\n但高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin警告称，4300的指数预期是建立在“通胀将减少，收益率会上升，拜登部分税改计划将通过成为法律”的宏观假设基础上的，如果上述假设出现变化，美股可能存在波动及回调风险。\n如果通胀持续上行会发生什么？\n目前高盛的基础假设是，通货膨胀飙升会是暂时的。随着未来3-6个月内临时补充的失业救济到期，劳动力供应将在年底前大幅反弹，薪资压力将得到缓解，美国核心CPI明年将从目前的3.8%下降到2.3%。\n但Kostin警告称，美国通胀的超预期上行将对公司估值及利润率造成重大影响。如果企业未能将价格提高到足以抵消通胀的程度，包括工资在内投入成本不断上升可能会对利润率构成压力。\n基于高盛的自上向下的模型，美国核心CPI通胀每超出预测值1%，标普500指数成分股企业营收也将增长大约1个百分点，但净利润率会下滑10个基点左右。而在通胀温和变化的情况下，标准普尔500指数的每股收益相对于高盛的平均预测将保持不变。\n通胀的持续上行也将对公司估值构成“重大的不利影响”。\nKostin表示，通胀的持续上升可能导致美联储采取比目前预期更多的紧缩措施，提前加息并拉低股票估值。\n目前高盛预计美联储将在12月宣布将在2022年初开始缩减购债规模，并在2023年下半年开始加息。\n从历史角度，美国股市在低通胀的市场环境下通常表现较好。自1960年以来，标准普尔500指数在低通胀时期的年均实际回报率中值为15%，而在高通胀时期仅为9%。而在高通胀时期，股票在通胀下降（15%）的情况下比在通胀上升（2%）的情况下表现更好。\n在细分板块上，高盛认为高通胀将提振具有较高定价权的股票的相对表现。医疗保健、能源、房地产和消费品等板块将跑赢大盘。\n\n如果利率下降或上升超过市场预期会发生什么?\n目前高盛给予标普500指数的基准目标位定为4300，其假设条件是，10年期美债收益率到2021年底将升至1.9%，且美股市盈率将稳定在22x左右。\n高盛预计今年美国名义国债收益率的上升将主要受实际利率的推动，部分受全球债券收益率上升的推动；而股票风险溢价(ERP)将在今年下半年下降，抵消利率上升对股票估值的部分影响，并使市盈率在年底前大致持平。\n但高盛表示，如果美债利率因经济增长疲软而未能上升，那么企业的盈利也将下降。这意味着，尽管收益率下降，标准普尔500指数也会下降。\n在另一种情况下，在其他情况不变的情况下，如果利率上涨超出高盛的预期，到年底攀升至2.5%，标普500指数的基础点位将下降至3550，较目前点位有17%的下跌空间。\n\n如果拜登税改失败会发生什么？\n在拜登税改方面，目前高盛基本假设认为，拜登的全部税收提案的部分内容将在年底前成为法律，并于2022年生效，这将使标普500指数的EPS较现行税法下的预测下降5%。而在当前税收政策下，预计标普500指数2022年的每股收益将达到212美元，增幅为10%。\n\n在税改细节方面，高盛预计，联邦法定企业税率将从21%上调至25%，而不是拜登提议的28%。拟议的海外所得税上调计划中大约有一半将成为法律，高收入个人的资本利得税税率将提高到28%。\n基于这些假设，高盛预计标普500指数2022年的EPS将达到202美元（比2021年增长5%），而在当前税收政策下，预计2022年的EPS将达到212美元，增幅为10%。\n根据高盛对2021年底市盈率22.3倍的基本预测，如果出现“无税制改革”的情况，该行对2022年标普500指数EPS的预期将提高5%，支持4500点的目标位。\nKostin同时表示，如果企业所得税和资本利得税没有提高，成长型股票通常受到提振。在资本利得税方面，如果今年晚些时候增税政策落地，科技类股等成长型股票遭受抛售的潜在风险最大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}