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  ·2021-05-26
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  Three factors suggest that the "mercury retrograde period" of tech stocks is still not over
  随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。 4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14
  Three factors suggest that the "mercury retrograde period" of tech stocks is still not over
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However, analysts said that the volatility of future prices, the current valuation of technology stocks and the flow of funds all indicate that the current correction of U.S. technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211. Since then, the index has pulled back nearly 3%. While the index's gains of more than 1.5% on Monday may reassure some investors, the macro drivers of tech stocks that have led the market over the past 10 years remain challenging.</p><p>\"We see nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the tech space, but we believe that this is an overheld, overvalued part of the market that is a wrong macro backdrop for this segment of the market right now,\" said RBC strategist Lori Calvasina.</p><p>The backdrop for the current market is that growth and inflation are accelerating as the economy reopens after a pandemic-induced shock. As a result, industries and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are preferred compared to areas and investment styles that can gain growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Strategists released a report on Friday showing that investors continue to put their money into stocks and fixed-income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials and financial stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financial stocks also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices have soared, as have expectations for infrastructure. Higher economic growth combined with higher interest rates has energized the financial system.</p><p>Funding into this space comes from investors who are reducing tech deals. Calvasina said: \"We think inflationary pressures are already there, and the tech sector is one of the biggest sources of funding to get back to reflation... so we don't think this is the best time to get back to this space.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different angles, trying to explore whether the pullback at Big Tech has been sufficient. Several major reasons indicate that the current pullback of technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>Calvasina noted that the current valuation of tech stocks remains on the high side relative to the rest of the market and the historical valuation of tech stocks. As we mentioned above, the inflow picture has not been encouraging, with tech ETFs seeing flat inflows this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappoints markets</b></p><p>Consumer confidence was lower than expected in April, and the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The short-term income outlook is pressured, at least to some extent, by inflation concerns, the Council noted. A separate report released Tuesday morning showed that home prices rose by the most in 15 years in March, highlighting the supply-demand mismatch in more key areas of the economy pushing prices higher.</p><p>However, some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will contribute to recent changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>Finance said he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary\" and that the Fed \"has not yet reached it\" when it discusses tapering asset purchases.</p><p>Esther George, chairwoman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said in a separate commentary that she did not want the Fed to \"rely too heavily on historical relationships and dynamics in judging the inflation outlook\". Fed officials have recently made a series of remarks downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market rallies.</p><p>While trading over the past two days has given investors at least a brief respite after last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about stocks given that concerns about inflation remain high.</p><p>Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday, \"Now everyone knows that they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the impact this could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability.\"\"If they decide to keep the rising input costs on the balance sheet, that's fine, at least on the consumer side, we won't see inflation rise, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we may see higher margins.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the latest technology-led advances can be short-lived. Calvasina said: \"We still believe inflationary pressures exist, with people moving money away from tech stocks to other sectors, such as financials, energy stocks and materials stocks. We don't see these inflationary pressures abating in the near term.\"</p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three factors suggest that the \"mercury retrograde period\" of tech stocks is still not over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree factors suggest that the \"mercury retrograde period\" of tech stocks is still not over\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Nasdaq has rebounded since May 19 as market concerns about inflation have been digested. However, analysts said that the volatility of future prices, the current valuation of technology stocks and the flow of funds all indicate that the current correction of U.S. technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211. Since then, the index has pulled back nearly 3%. While the index's gains of more than 1.5% on Monday may reassure some investors, the macro drivers of tech stocks that have led the market over the past 10 years remain challenging.</p><p>\"We see nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the tech space, but we believe that this is an overheld, overvalued part of the market that is a wrong macro backdrop for this segment of the market right now,\" said RBC strategist Lori Calvasina.</p><p>The backdrop for the current market is that growth and inflation are accelerating as the economy reopens after a pandemic-induced shock. As a result, industries and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are preferred compared to areas and investment styles that can gain growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Strategists released a report on Friday showing that investors continue to put their money into stocks and fixed-income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials and financial stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financial stocks also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices have soared, as have expectations for infrastructure. Higher economic growth combined with higher interest rates has energized the financial system.</p><p>Funding into this space comes from investors who are reducing tech deals. Calvasina said: \"We think inflationary pressures are already there, and the tech sector is one of the biggest sources of funding to get back to reflation... so we don't think this is the best time to get back to this space.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different angles, trying to explore whether the pullback at Big Tech has been sufficient. Several major reasons indicate that the current pullback of technology companies is not over yet.</p><p>Calvasina noted that the current valuation of tech stocks remains on the high side relative to the rest of the market and the historical valuation of tech stocks. As we mentioned above, the inflow picture has not been encouraging, with tech ETFs seeing flat inflows this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappoints markets</b></p><p>Consumer confidence was lower than expected in April, and the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The short-term income outlook is pressured, at least to some extent, by inflation concerns, the Council noted. A separate report released Tuesday morning showed that home prices rose by the most in 15 years in March, highlighting the supply-demand mismatch in more key areas of the economy pushing prices higher.</p><p>However, some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will contribute to recent changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>Finance said he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary\" and that the Fed \"has not yet reached it\" when it discusses tapering asset purchases.</p><p>Esther George, chairwoman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said in a separate commentary that she did not want the Fed to \"rely too heavily on historical relationships and dynamics in judging the inflation outlook\". Fed officials have recently made a series of remarks downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market rallies.</p><p>While trading over the past two days has given investors at least a brief respite after last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about stocks given that concerns about inflation remain high.</p><p>Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday, \"Now everyone knows that they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the impact this could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability.\"\"If they decide to keep the rising input costs on the balance sheet, that's fine, at least on the consumer side, we won't see inflation rise, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we may see higher margins.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the latest technology-led advances can be short-lived. Calvasina said: \"We still believe inflationary pressures exist, with people moving money away from tech stocks to other sectors, such as financials, energy stocks and materials stocks. We don't see these inflationary pressures abating in the near term.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d770a193c6a88684d0203fd2ec91e4a","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138519408","content_text":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14211点的纪录高点。自那以来，该指数回调已接近3%。尽管该指数周一超过1.5%的涨幅可能会让一些投资者放心，但过去10年引领市场的科技股的宏观驱动力仍面临挑战。\nRBC策略师Lori Calvasina表示：“我们认为科技领域的基本面没有任何问题，但我们认为，这是市场上被过度持有、估值过高的一部分，目前对这部分市场来说，这是一个错误的宏观背景。”\n当前市场的背景是，随着经济在一场疫情引发的冲击后重新开放，增长和通胀正在加速。因此，与能够在其他环境中获得增长的领域和投资风格相比，从GDP加速增长中获益更多的行业和投资风格更受青睐。\n以Parag Thatte为首的德意志银行策略师上周五发布报告显示，投资者继续将资金投入被视为通胀赢家的股票和固定收益产品，如TIPS、能源、材料和金融类股。\n\n能源、材料和金融类股在周期性交易、价值交易和重新开放交易中也有很好的表现。大宗商品价格飙升，对基础设施的期望也在上升。更高的经济增长与更高的利率相结合，为金融体系注入了活力。\n进入这一领域的资金来自于减少科技交易的投资者。Calvasina称：\"我们认为通胀压力已经存在，科技行业是重返通货再膨胀的最大资金来源之一……所以我们认为现在还不是回到这个领域的最佳时机。”\n在上周发表的一份报告中，Calvasina和她的团队从不同的角度深入研究了投资者风格的转变，试图探索大型科技公司的回调是否已经充分。而几大原因表明，目前科技公司的回调尚未结束。\nCalvasina指出，相对于市场其他部分和科技股的历史估值，科技股当前的估值仍然偏高。正如我们上面提到的，资金流入情况并不令人鼓舞，今年科技ETF的资金流入持平。\n经济数据令市场失望\n4月份消费者信心指数低于预期，美国经济谘商会(Conference Board)上月的整体信心指数跌幅超过预期。美国经济谘商会指出，至少在一定程度上，短期收入前景受到通胀担忧的压力。周二上午公布的另一份报告显示，3月份房价创下15年来的最大涨幅，突显出经济中更多关键领域的供需不匹配推高了房价。\n不过，美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)部分成员暗示，市场人士可能不需要担心物价上涨会在短期内促成货币政策的近期变动。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德(James Bullard)周一对雅虎财经表示，他认为通胀上升\"大多是暂时的\"，而美联储在讨论缩减资产购买规模时\"还没有达到\"。\n堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主席埃斯特•乔治在另一篇评论中表示，她不希望美联储\"在判断通胀前景时过度依赖历史关系和动态\"。美联储官员最近发表了一系列讲话，淡化了采取短期货币政策措施的必要性，这些措施可能会抑制市场涨势。\n尽管在上周的股市抛售之后，过去两天的交易给投资者提供了至少短暂的喘息机会，但鉴于对通胀的担忧仍居高不下，一些策略师仍对股市持谨慎态度。\nTD Ameritrade高级市场策略师Shawn Cruz周一对雅虎财经表示，\"现在所有人都知道，他们应该担心通胀压力，以及这可能对货币政策或企业盈利能力造成的影响。\"“如果他们决定将不断上升的投入成本保留在资产负债表上，那很好，至少在消费者方面，我们不会看到通胀上升，但(第二季度)盈利出来时，我们可能会看到利润率上升。”\n其他人也指出，最新的技术引领的进步可能是短暂的。Calvasina表示：“我们仍认为通胀压力存在，人们将资金从科技股移至其他板块，如金融股、能源股和材料股。我们不认为这些通胀压力会在短期内减轻。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}