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- juanjuanjuanjuanjuanjuan
  ·2021-06-09
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  Competition and Dilemma Faced by Vipshop: The Pipeline of Special Sales
  多年以后，当沈亚回忆往事的时候，犯下的最大错误，不是重金砸向了物流，而是没有在拼多多崛起之前，把唯品会打造成一个用户数过亿的电商。发布2021年一季报前，外界都觉得唯品会的业绩不会有问题。我认识一
  Competition and Dilemma Faced by Vipshop: The Pipeline of Special Sales
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- juanjuanjuanjuanjuanjuan
  ·2021-06-07
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- juanjuanjuanjuanjuanjuan
  ·2021-06-05
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  Apple employees oppose returning to office work in internal letters
  近日，苹果公司的员工正在反对一项新政策，该政策要求他们从9月初开始，每周三天返回办公室。据媒体获得的一封内部信件显示，苹果员工们表示，他们希望采用一种更加灵活的方式，满足那些希望可以远程办公的员工们的
  Apple employees oppose returning to office work in internal letters
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- juanjuanjuanjuanjuanjuan
  ·2021-06-04
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- juanjuanjuanjuanjuanjuan
  ·2021-06-03
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  Behind AMC's 3000% Surge in the Year: Rare CEOs and Rare Deals
  Reddit散户无视AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc．财务困境和被严重做空的状况大举买入，推动其股价今年以来上涨了3000%左右。这家连锁院线公司也在趁机迎合这种“网红股”
  Behind AMC's 3000% Surge in the Year: Rare CEOs and Rare Deals
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- juanjuanjuanjuanjuanjuan
  ·2021-06-01
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- juanjuanjuanjuanjuanjuan
  ·2021-05-30
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- juanjuanjuanjuanjuanjuan
  ·2021-05-27
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- juanjuanjuanjuanjuanjuan
  ·2021-05-26
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- juanjuanjuanjuanjuanjuan
  ·2021-05-23
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I know a dollar fund that holds Vipshop. Before the financial report, I even speculated that the annual purchase amount of a single SVIP was about 16,000 yuan announced by Vipshop, with an error of less than 500 yuan. Before the financial report, many US dollar funds were basically optimistic about Vipshop's Q1 financial report.</p><p>However, after the release of the financial report, everyone found that Vipshop's growth was so weak. In particular, the second-quarter outlook given by the company is 3% lower than expected. Another is the retention of new users. Vipshop's quarterly new customer retention is less than 30%. Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Of the data, all of them are above 80%. If the depth of review Vipshop the past few years of the journey, we will find today's problems, exposed completely reasonable and natural.</p><p><b>Behind Low Growth: Problems Faced by Vipshop</b></p><p>If our review Vipshop share price has increased in the past three years, it can be regarded as a very dazzling performance in the e-commerce industry. In 2018, Vipshop once dropped to only $3 billion. During the Spring Festival this year, Vipshop once rose to $26 billion. The three-year increase is nearly ten-fold.</p><p>But when we look at Vipshop's share price increase, where do the driving factors mainly come from? Valuation Repair + Profit Growth. At the beginning of 2018, at that time, Vipshop's self-built express brand Pinjun had not been sold to SF Express, resulting in a particularly high overall performance cost, which exceeded 9% in 2017, and finally reflected in the net profit margin, which was only about 3%. Therefore, although Vipshop's income is rising, before 2018, Vipshop's profits did not increase significantly, mainly dragged down by its own Pinjun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f198fda8406ff0423662a2bb409ce4e6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's performance expense ratio has dropped from a maximum of 9.5% to 6.2% now)</p><p>Until Vipshop packaged and sold Pinjun Express to SF Express in 2019, all Vipshop's goods were delivered by SF Express, and the performance cost rate dropped from 9% to about 6%. The saved three points became an improved net profit margin. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's profit, which has increased from $300 million in 2018 to $1 billion in 2020.</p><p>If you only look at profits, Vipshop is a very good company. In A shares, there are more than 3,000 listed companies with annual profits of more than 6 billion yuan, which is also very rare. But if we look at Vipshop from the perspective of Internet companies, we will find that it is completely unqualified:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3981cbbe2fa18f97229938936ea9187f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The first is the Bug of user growth. Vipshop's quarterly active users have only more than doubled from 20 million in 2015 to 45.8 million in the latest quarter. If you compare the growth of Pinduoduo, it is a bit biased. Take JD.COM as a comparison. The user growth of Vipshop will be extremely slow. As for Vipshop's new customer growth, I think there are several main reasons:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cb51ab6cc2b0230b57433002ee8c16\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Number of active buyers in JD.COM)</p><p>The positioning is narrow. Since its establishment, Vipshop has clearly defined itself as \"a company that does special sales\". After its listing in 2012, Vipshop also put in many brand advertisements, all of which were marketed around \"special sales\". However, this positioning, among the broad audience, is still relatively \"vertical\". Discount is the \"general demand\" of the public, but Vipshop's advertisements have not been transmitted to the public. Or: Vipshop's past advertising strategy did not get a good return on user growth.</p><p>Commodity strategy, which is seriously unattractive to new users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb93475c24644f346f50ddd234e7ef33\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's user repurchase rate: official website)</p><p>If we measure Vipshop by the standard of repurchase rate, it is undoubtedly a very successful retail company. Of the 45.8 million active users in the first quarter of 2021, 40.5 million were old users with repeated purchases, accounting for 88.5%. Since 2015, this indicator has continued to show an upward trend. However, if you only rely on old users and repurchase, it is easy to face the bottleneck of growth. And the reason why new users keep lines, I think, has a lot to do with the goods:</p><p>First, let me quote a snowball friend's comment: \"For buyers, clothing should be more choices, trendy styles, new and fast, and durable shopping; For sellers, the platform should be able to ensure that it is sensitive to buyers' needs, guide design and guide inventory management. However, Vipshop can't meet the most mainstream needs of women's clothing users, and the seller can only meet inventory management. The result is that the user is sticky, but the amount is not large. \"</p><p>Corresponding to the commodity side of Vipshop, the supply side can only achieve limited styles, limited new products and limited demand. If it corresponds to the demand side: users with particularly high requirements for style and trend may not be well satisfied. And corresponding to age, the younger the girl, the more chasing the trend. Therefore, corresponding to the customer base of Vipshop, new customers are mainly born in 1990s and 1995s. The reason why the retention rate of this part is less than 30% is, to a large extent, that styles can't be presented to them in mass at Vipshop. Therefore, in the end, after these people bought it for the first time, they ran to Taobao and Tmall.</p><p>The dilemma of recruiting and retaining vertical e-commerce. Although Vipshop's revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan last year, in terms of positioning, the company can't be called a platform e-commerce company. Still a small but beautiful vertical e-commerce: Vipshop's clothing, shoes and hats account for about 45% of the total revenue. As a vertical e-commerce company, user demand must only be concentrated in a very narrow range. For example, in terms of category mind, when users come to Vipshop, the first thing they think of is definitely clothes and shoes, not electrical appliances, mobile phones and food. This leads to one user, and many other shopping needs can only be transferred to another e-commerce company.</p><p>Bottom line: the mind is too vertical, which is both an advantage and a huge disadvantage. Users will only buy this kind of goods on this platform, while other long-tail goods are all eaten by Taobao and Pinduoduo.</p><p>The dilemma faced by unlisted vertical e-commerce is similar to that of Vipshop: I know a maternal and infant vertical e-commerce company. At its peak in 2016, the GMV exceeded 10 billion yuan, and it was less than 4 billion yuan last year. Atrophy 60%. Corresponding to the company's valuation, it has shrunk by 50% compared with five years ago.</p><p>Maternal and infant e-commerce, in LTV, suffers even more. A mother, when a child grows up, will never come back. Compared with maternal and infant e-commerce, clothing, shoes and hats are the lifelong needs of users. Therefore, the stickiness of old users is particularly high.</p><p><b>Competition and Dilemma Faced: The Pipeline of Special Sales</b></p><p>The opponent faced by Vipshop is not another Vipshop, but other e-commerce companies. For example, the broken code clearance channel in Pinduoduo.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2645bdfac50010ce610f48332896390c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1054\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When the broken code channel in Pinduoduo first came out, I was very worried for a while, because the positioning of Pinduoduo is naturally suitable for clearing inventory and tail goods. However, at that time, we compared Vipshop's so-called \"buyer's advantage\" and found that Pinduoduo had little impact on Vipshop in the category of women's clothing. Because the choice of women's clothing styles is extremely demanding. But these comparisons, today, need to be rethought. Why?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5962971ad162b4e3290fd2e6685c0887\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1161\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The user scale has been exactly one order of magnitude. Pinduoduo has 800 million annual active users and 700 million monthly active users. Although we can't get the specific data of the broken code clearance channel, from the penetration rate, even with 5% of users, this channel has 35 million monthly purchasing users. Vipshop's quarterly monthly active users are 45 million. In the special field of tail goods, Pinduoduo is estimated to be on the same order as Vipshop.</p><p>What is the difference between the tail goods of Pinduoduo and Vipshop? What we talked about above is the number of users. In terms of commodity supply, we must first admit that the supply side of Pinduoduo is not as good as Vipshop. But if we go back to the tail goods themselves, the requirements for buyers are far overrated. Why?</p><p>Vipshop itself is mainly consignment. Different from the buyout system of TJX in the United States, most of Vipshop's special sale mode is still mainly consignment mode. What do you mean? That is, what inventory the brand owner has and what goods Vipshop will sell. Vipshop itself does not eat the inventory of the brand. The tail goods of the brand owner first enter the warehouse of Vipshop, and then Vipshop will take photos, package and deliver them uniformly. If they can't be sold out, Vipshop will return them to the brand.</p><p>For Vipshop, its more role is a \"sewer pipe\". The role of buyers in it will participate in judging some styles, but it does not occupy a dominant position. The reason is also very simple: if buyers can judge which styles sell best, why doesn't Vipshop learn the TJX \"buyout system\"? After all, a buyout costs less.</p><p>Since there is no buyout, the inventory is still cleared by volume sales. The core competition is who clears more and faster. It is more appropriate to compare Vipshop to a \"sewer pipe\". Before the birth of Pinduoduo and Doukuai e-commerce, the management in the whole country was the coarsest and the water flow was the fastest. But today is different. Today, the tail goods in Pinduoduo are on sale. Although the pipeline is not as thick as Vipshop, this pipeline is growing particularly fast. In addition, there are new pipelines such as live e-commerce.</p><p>These new pipelines don't necessarily subvert Vipshop, but they divert the water in Vipshop's pipelines to a large extent. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's operating income in the past three years, which is: 84.5 billion yuan, 92.9 billion yuan and 101.8 billion yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of only 10%. The growth rate of e-commerce market is about 20%.</p><p>Today, Vipshop, a tail cargo pipeline, has encountered Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>Aauto Quicker's huge challenge, and the growth rate of e-commerce market is lower than three years ago. For Vipshop itself, at present, the biggest advantage is still the repurchase of old users, but this part can't give it a future valuation. Vipshop's share price fell from $30 to $20. In addition to the mediocrity of the first quarterly report, the market is more worried that its competitive advantage is being challenged.</p><p>The pipeline of tail goods is a true portrayal of what Vipshop is facing today. Whether this pipeline can be differentiated is currently a test of the management's ability. For example, can you customize special and exclusive models for SVIP. Compared with other channels, Vipshop will be able to buy out some goods exclusively on the commodity side in the future. These are the current challenges.</p><p>The biggest challenge is that under the homogeneous competition, Vipshop's new user growth and retention rate is far lower than that of general e-commerce. At the current valuation, even according to the annual profit of 1 billion US dollars, there is still 15 times PE. While<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">Momo</a>This kind of non-growing Internet company, only 8-9 times PE. As a former shareholder of Vipshop, I hope Vipshop will not degenerate into a company below 10 times PE.</p><p>In the future, Vipshop will still be a profitable company, but in the secondary market, Vipshop may not be a valuable company. Because the growth is getting slower, the challenges are getting bigger, and only that little profit is left.</p>","source":"lsy1622099900134","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Competition and Dilemma Faced by Vipshop: The Pipeline of Special Sales</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCompetition and Dilemma Faced by Vipshop: The Pipeline of Special Sales\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">美港商业评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-09 22:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many years later, when Shen Ya recalled the past, the biggest mistake he made was not that he spent a lot of money on logistics, but that he didn't spend a lot of money on logistics.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Before its rise, Vipshop was built into an e-commerce company with over 100 million users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40487789de570b4fa66d6b9c878da7ec\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the release of the first quarterly report of 2021, the outside world felt that there would be no problem with Vipshop's performance. I know a dollar fund that holds Vipshop. Before the financial report, I even speculated that the annual purchase amount of a single SVIP was about 16,000 yuan announced by Vipshop, with an error of less than 500 yuan. Before the financial report, many US dollar funds were basically optimistic about Vipshop's Q1 financial report.</p><p>However, after the release of the financial report, everyone found that Vipshop's growth was so weak. In particular, the second-quarter outlook given by the company is 3% lower than expected. Another is the retention of new users. Vipshop's quarterly new customer retention is less than 30%. Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Of the data, all of them are above 80%. If the depth of review Vipshop the past few years of the journey, we will find today's problems, exposed completely reasonable and natural.</p><p><b>Behind Low Growth: Problems Faced by Vipshop</b></p><p>If our review Vipshop share price has increased in the past three years, it can be regarded as a very dazzling performance in the e-commerce industry. In 2018, Vipshop once dropped to only $3 billion. During the Spring Festival this year, Vipshop once rose to $26 billion. The three-year increase is nearly ten-fold.</p><p>But when we look at Vipshop's share price increase, where do the driving factors mainly come from? Valuation Repair + Profit Growth. At the beginning of 2018, at that time, Vipshop's self-built express brand Pinjun had not been sold to SF Express, resulting in a particularly high overall performance cost, which exceeded 9% in 2017, and finally reflected in the net profit margin, which was only about 3%. Therefore, although Vipshop's income is rising, before 2018, Vipshop's profits did not increase significantly, mainly dragged down by its own Pinjun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f198fda8406ff0423662a2bb409ce4e6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's performance expense ratio has dropped from a maximum of 9.5% to 6.2% now)</p><p>Until Vipshop packaged and sold Pinjun Express to SF Express in 2019, all Vipshop's goods were delivered by SF Express, and the performance cost rate dropped from 9% to about 6%. The saved three points became an improved net profit margin. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's profit, which has increased from $300 million in 2018 to $1 billion in 2020.</p><p>If you only look at profits, Vipshop is a very good company. In A shares, there are more than 3,000 listed companies with annual profits of more than 6 billion yuan, which is also very rare. But if we look at Vipshop from the perspective of Internet companies, we will find that it is completely unqualified:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3981cbbe2fa18f97229938936ea9187f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The first is the Bug of user growth. Vipshop's quarterly active users have only more than doubled from 20 million in 2015 to 45.8 million in the latest quarter. If you compare the growth of Pinduoduo, it is a bit biased. Take JD.COM as a comparison. The user growth of Vipshop will be extremely slow. As for Vipshop's new customer growth, I think there are several main reasons:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cb51ab6cc2b0230b57433002ee8c16\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Number of active buyers in JD.COM)</p><p>The positioning is narrow. Since its establishment, Vipshop has clearly defined itself as \"a company that does special sales\". After its listing in 2012, Vipshop also put in many brand advertisements, all of which were marketed around \"special sales\". However, this positioning, among the broad audience, is still relatively \"vertical\". Discount is the \"general demand\" of the public, but Vipshop's advertisements have not been transmitted to the public. Or: Vipshop's past advertising strategy did not get a good return on user growth.</p><p>Commodity strategy, which is seriously unattractive to new users.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb93475c24644f346f50ddd234e7ef33\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Vipshop's user repurchase rate: official website)</p><p>If we measure Vipshop by the standard of repurchase rate, it is undoubtedly a very successful retail company. Of the 45.8 million active users in the first quarter of 2021, 40.5 million were old users with repeated purchases, accounting for 88.5%. Since 2015, this indicator has continued to show an upward trend. However, if you only rely on old users and repurchase, it is easy to face the bottleneck of growth. And the reason why new users keep lines, I think, has a lot to do with the goods:</p><p>First, let me quote a snowball friend's comment: \"For buyers, clothing should be more choices, trendy styles, new and fast, and durable shopping; For sellers, the platform should be able to ensure that it is sensitive to buyers' needs, guide design and guide inventory management. However, Vipshop can't meet the most mainstream needs of women's clothing users, and the seller can only meet inventory management. The result is that the user is sticky, but the amount is not large. \"</p><p>Corresponding to the commodity side of Vipshop, the supply side can only achieve limited styles, limited new products and limited demand. If it corresponds to the demand side: users with particularly high requirements for style and trend may not be well satisfied. And corresponding to age, the younger the girl, the more chasing the trend. Therefore, corresponding to the customer base of Vipshop, new customers are mainly born in 1990s and 1995s. The reason why the retention rate of this part is less than 30% is, to a large extent, that styles can't be presented to them in mass at Vipshop. Therefore, in the end, after these people bought it for the first time, they ran to Taobao and Tmall.</p><p>The dilemma of recruiting and retaining vertical e-commerce. Although Vipshop's revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan last year, in terms of positioning, the company can't be called a platform e-commerce company. Still a small but beautiful vertical e-commerce: Vipshop's clothing, shoes and hats account for about 45% of the total revenue. As a vertical e-commerce company, user demand must only be concentrated in a very narrow range. For example, in terms of category mind, when users come to Vipshop, the first thing they think of is definitely clothes and shoes, not electrical appliances, mobile phones and food. This leads to one user, and many other shopping needs can only be transferred to another e-commerce company.</p><p>Bottom line: the mind is too vertical, which is both an advantage and a huge disadvantage. Users will only buy this kind of goods on this platform, while other long-tail goods are all eaten by Taobao and Pinduoduo.</p><p>The dilemma faced by unlisted vertical e-commerce is similar to that of Vipshop: I know a maternal and infant vertical e-commerce company. At its peak in 2016, the GMV exceeded 10 billion yuan, and it was less than 4 billion yuan last year. Atrophy 60%. Corresponding to the company's valuation, it has shrunk by 50% compared with five years ago.</p><p>Maternal and infant e-commerce, in LTV, suffers even more. A mother, when a child grows up, will never come back. Compared with maternal and infant e-commerce, clothing, shoes and hats are the lifelong needs of users. Therefore, the stickiness of old users is particularly high.</p><p><b>Competition and Dilemma Faced: The Pipeline of Special Sales</b></p><p>The opponent faced by Vipshop is not another Vipshop, but other e-commerce companies. For example, the broken code clearance channel in Pinduoduo.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2645bdfac50010ce610f48332896390c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1054\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When the broken code channel in Pinduoduo first came out, I was very worried for a while, because the positioning of Pinduoduo is naturally suitable for clearing inventory and tail goods. However, at that time, we compared Vipshop's so-called \"buyer's advantage\" and found that Pinduoduo had little impact on Vipshop in the category of women's clothing. Because the choice of women's clothing styles is extremely demanding. But these comparisons, today, need to be rethought. Why?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5962971ad162b4e3290fd2e6685c0887\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1161\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The user scale has been exactly one order of magnitude. Pinduoduo has 800 million annual active users and 700 million monthly active users. Although we can't get the specific data of the broken code clearance channel, from the penetration rate, even with 5% of users, this channel has 35 million monthly purchasing users. Vipshop's quarterly monthly active users are 45 million. In the special field of tail goods, Pinduoduo is estimated to be on the same order as Vipshop.</p><p>What is the difference between the tail goods of Pinduoduo and Vipshop? What we talked about above is the number of users. In terms of commodity supply, we must first admit that the supply side of Pinduoduo is not as good as Vipshop. But if we go back to the tail goods themselves, the requirements for buyers are far overrated. Why?</p><p>Vipshop itself is mainly consignment. Different from the buyout system of TJX in the United States, most of Vipshop's special sale mode is still mainly consignment mode. What do you mean? That is, what inventory the brand owner has and what goods Vipshop will sell. Vipshop itself does not eat the inventory of the brand. The tail goods of the brand owner first enter the warehouse of Vipshop, and then Vipshop will take photos, package and deliver them uniformly. If they can't be sold out, Vipshop will return them to the brand.</p><p>For Vipshop, its more role is a \"sewer pipe\". The role of buyers in it will participate in judging some styles, but it does not occupy a dominant position. The reason is also very simple: if buyers can judge which styles sell best, why doesn't Vipshop learn the TJX \"buyout system\"? After all, a buyout costs less.</p><p>Since there is no buyout, the inventory is still cleared by volume sales. The core competition is who clears more and faster. It is more appropriate to compare Vipshop to a \"sewer pipe\". Before the birth of Pinduoduo and Doukuai e-commerce, the management in the whole country was the coarsest and the water flow was the fastest. But today is different. Today, the tail goods in Pinduoduo are on sale. Although the pipeline is not as thick as Vipshop, this pipeline is growing particularly fast. In addition, there are new pipelines such as live e-commerce.</p><p>These new pipelines don't necessarily subvert Vipshop, but they divert the water in Vipshop's pipelines to a large extent. Therefore, let's look at Vipshop's operating income in the past three years, which is: 84.5 billion yuan, 92.9 billion yuan and 101.8 billion yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of only 10%. The growth rate of e-commerce market is about 20%.</p><p>Today, Vipshop, a tail cargo pipeline, has encountered Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>Aauto Quicker's huge challenge, and the growth rate of e-commerce market is lower than three years ago. For Vipshop itself, at present, the biggest advantage is still the repurchase of old users, but this part can't give it a future valuation. Vipshop's share price fell from $30 to $20. In addition to the mediocrity of the first quarterly report, the market is more worried that its competitive advantage is being challenged.</p><p>The pipeline of tail goods is a true portrayal of what Vipshop is facing today. Whether this pipeline can be differentiated is currently a test of the management's ability. For example, can you customize special and exclusive models for SVIP. Compared with other channels, Vipshop will be able to buy out some goods exclusively on the commodity side in the future. These are the current challenges.</p><p>The biggest challenge is that under the homogeneous competition, Vipshop's new user growth and retention rate is far lower than that of general e-commerce. At the current valuation, even according to the annual profit of 1 billion US dollars, there is still 15 times PE. While<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">Momo</a>This kind of non-growing Internet company, only 8-9 times PE. As a former shareholder of Vipshop, I hope Vipshop will not degenerate into a company below 10 times PE.</p><p>In the future, Vipshop will still be a profitable company, but in the secondary market, Vipshop may not be a valuable company. Because the growth is getting slower, the challenges are getting bigger, and only that little profit is left.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-09/doc-ikqciyzi8699752.shtml\">美港商业评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c4cd7712c75cd06d9344cb8d687270e","relate_stocks":{"VIPS":"唯品会"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-09/doc-ikqciyzi8699752.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142216539","content_text":"多年以后，当沈亚回忆往事的时候，犯下的最大错误，不是重金砸向了物流，而是没有在拼多多崛起之前，把唯品会打造成一个用户数过亿的电商。\n\n发布2021年一季报前，外界都觉得唯品会的业绩不会有问题。我认识一个持有唯品会的美元基金，财报前，甚至推测出单个SVIP的年度购买金额，和唯品会公布的16000元左右，误差不到500元。财报前，很多美元基金，基本都一致看好唯品会的Q1财报。\n但是财报发布后，大家才发现唯品会增长如此疲软。尤其公司给的二季度展望，比预期低3%。还有一个是新用户的留存问题，唯品会的季度新客留存尚不到30%。而美团、京东的数据，都在80%以上。如果深度复盘唯品会过去几年的路程，我们会发现今天的问题，暴露的完全合理和自然。\n低速增长的背后：唯品会面临的问题\n如果我们复盘唯品会过去三年的股价涨幅，算是电商行业表现非常耀眼的。2018年，唯品会一度只跌到30亿美金。今年春节时候唯品会一度涨到了260亿美元。三年涨幅接近十倍。\n但是我们看唯品会的股价涨幅，驱动因素主要来自于哪里？估值修复+利润增长。2018年初，彼时唯品会的自建快递品牌品骏，还没有卖给顺丰，导致整体履约费用特别高，2017年超过9%，最终体现到净利润率上，只有3%左右。所以，尽管唯品会的收入在涨，但是2018年之前，唯品会的利润并没有大幅度上涨，主要被自家的品骏所拖累。\n（唯品会的履约费用率，从最高9.5%下降到现在的6.2%）\n直到唯品会2019年把品骏快递打包卖给顺丰后，唯品会的商品，全部用顺丰发货，履约费用率，从9%下降到6%左右，这省下来的3个点，就成了提高的净利润率。所以，我们看唯品会的利润，从2018年的3亿美金增长到2020年的10亿美金。\n如果只看利润，唯品会是一家非常优秀的公司。放在A股，3000多家上市公司，年利润超过60亿人民币的，也非常稀少。但如果我们从互联网公司的视角，来审视唯品会，会发现其完全不合格：\n\n首先是用户增长的Bug。唯品会的季度活跃用户，从2015年的2000万，到最新一季度的4580万，只增长了一倍多点。如果对比拼多多的增长，有点偏颇。我们拿京东作为对比，唯品会的用户增长，会显得极其缓慢。而唯品会的新客增长问题，我认为主要有几方面的原因：\n（京东的活跃买家数量）\n定位较窄。唯品会从成立时，就清晰地定义自己是“一家做特卖的公司”。2012年上市后，唯品会也投放了许多品牌广告，都是围绕“特卖”来营销。但是这个定位，在广大的受众里，仍然比较“垂直”。打折是大众的“通用需求”，但是唯品会的广告，并没有传导到大众人群。或者说：唯品会过往的广告策略，并没有获到很好的用户增长回报。\n商品策略，对新用户吸引力严重不足。\n（唯品会的用户复购率：官网）\n如果我们以复购率这个标准，来衡量唯品会，无疑是一家非常成功的零售公司。2021年一季度的4580万活跃用户中，有4050万是重复购买的老用户，占比高达88.5%。从2015年至今，这一指标，持续呈现上涨趋势。但是，如果只靠老用户以及复购，很容易面临增长的瓶颈。而新用户留存行的原因，我觉得和商品也有很大关系：\n先引用一个雪球朋友的评论：“对买家而言，服饰要选择多，款式潮，上新快，耐逛；对卖家而言，平台要能保证其对买家需求敏感，对设计的指导，对库存管理的指导。而唯品会满足不了女装用户最主流的需求，卖家端也只能满足库存的管理。反映结果就是用户粘性高，但量不大。”\n对应到唯品会的商品端，供给端只能做到有限款式、有限上新、有限需求。如果对应到需求端：对款式、潮流要求特别高的用户，可能无法得到很好的满足。而对应到年龄上，越年轻的女孩子，越追逐潮流。所以，对应到唯品会的客群，新客主要是90、95后，这部分留存率不到30%的原因，很大程度，是在唯品会上，款式无法给她们海量的呈现。所以，最终这些人第一次买完后，又跑去了淘宝、天猫。\n垂直电商的拉新留存窘境。虽然唯品会去年的收入超过了1000亿元，但是从定位上，公司还不能称为一家平台型电商。仍然算一个小而美的垂直电商：唯品会的服装鞋帽占总收入为45%左右。作为垂直电商，用户需求，必然只集中在很窄的范围。比如品类心智上，用户来唯品会，首先想到的肯定是衣服、鞋子，而不是电器、手机、食品。这就导致了一个用户，很多其他的购物需求，只能转移到另一个电商上。\n一句话：心智过于垂直，是优势，也是巨大的劣势。用户只会在这个平台上买这一类商品，其他长尾的商品，则全部被淘宝和拼多多吃掉了。\n没上市的垂直电商，所面临的困境，和唯品会是相似的：我知道的一家母婴垂直电商，2016年顶峰时期，GMV就超过了100亿元，去年还不到40亿。萎缩了60%。对应到公司估值上，对比五年前，缩水了50%。\n母婴类的电商，在LTV上，更加吃亏。一个妈妈，孩子长大后，就永远不会再回来了。唯品会和母婴类电商比，服装鞋帽是用户的终身需求。所以老用户的粘性特别高。\n面临的竞争和困境：特卖的管道化\n唯品会面临的对手，并不是另一个唯品会，而是其他的电商。比如拼多多的断码清仓频道。\n\n拼多多的断码频道刚出来时，我有一阵非常担心，因为拼多多的定位，天然适合清库存和尾货。但是当时又对比了唯品会所谓的“买手优势”，发现拼多多在女装类目，对唯品会冲击不大。因为女装对款式的挑选，极为苛刻。但是这些对比，到今天，需要重新思考了，为什么？\n\n用户规模已经完全一个量级。拼多多的年度活跃用户8亿，月活7亿，虽然我们无法得出断码清仓频道的具体数据，但是从渗透率算，即使5%的用户量，这个频道的月购买用户也有3500万。而唯品会季度的月活用户也就4500万。拼多多在尾货特别领域，毛估估算，已经完全和唯品会一个量级了。\n拼多多的尾货，和唯品会有什么区别？上面我们谈到的是用户量，在商品供给上，首先得承认拼多多的供给端，不如唯品会。但是如果回到尾货本身，对买手的要求远远被高估了。为什么？\n唯品会本身以寄卖为主。和美国TJX的买断制不同，唯品会的特卖模式，绝大部分仍然是寄卖模式为主。什么意思呢？就是品牌商有什么库存，唯品会卖什么货。唯品会自己并不吃品牌方的库存。品牌商的尾货先入到唯品会的仓，然后由唯品会来统一拍照、打包、发货，卖不完的，唯品会再退回给品牌方。\n对于唯品会来说，自己更多的角色是一个“下水管道”。买手在其中的作用，会参与判断一些款式，但并不占主导位置。理由也很简单：如果买手能判断出哪些款式畅销，唯品会为什么不学TJX“买断制”呢？毕竟，买断的成本更低。\n既然不买断，仍然以走量销售的清库存，那核心比拼的，还是谁清的多、清的快。把唯品会比喻为一个“下水管道”更合适。在拼多多、抖快电商没诞生之前，全国这个管理是最粗的、水流也是最快的。但是今天不一样了。今天拼多多的尾货特卖，虽然管道没有唯品会粗，但是这个管道增长特别快。另外，还有直播电商这样的新管道。\n这些新的管道，不一定颠覆唯品会，但是很大程度分流了唯品会管道里的水。所以，我们看唯品会过去三年的营业收入，分别为：845亿元、929亿元、1018亿元，年复合增长率仅为10%。而电商的大盘增速在20%左右。\n今天，唯品会这个尾货管道，遭遇了拼多多、抖音快手的巨大挑战，而电商大盘的增速，也要低于三年前。对于唯品会自己，目前看，最大的优势仍是老用户复购，但是这部分并不能给其未来的估值。唯品会的股价，从30美元跌到20美元，除了一季报的平庸，市场更多担心是竞争优势遭受到挑战。\n尾货管道化，是今天唯品会面临的真实写照。这个管道能否做出差异化，目前极为考验管理层的能力。比如能否为SVIP定制特别款、独家款。和其他渠道比，唯品会未来在商品端，能否独家买断一些货品。这些都是当前的挑战。\n而最大的挑战，就是在同质化的竞争下，唯品会的新用户增长和留存率，远低于通用电商。而当前的估值，即使按照年利润10亿美金算，仍然还有15倍PE。而陌陌这种不增长的互联网公司，只有8-9倍PE。作为曾经唯品会的股东，希望唯品会不要堕落成10倍PE以下的公司。\n未来的一段时间，唯品会还是一家赚钱的公司，但是在二级市场上，唯品会可能不是一家值钱的公司。因为增长越来越慢、挑战越来越大、只剩那点利润。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VIPS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114184049,"gmtCreate":1623057682481,"gmtModify":1704195178883,"author":{"id":"3583234199071042","authorId":"3583234199071042","name":"juanjuanjuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583234199071042","idStr":"3583234199071042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114184049","repostId":"1139208396","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112427498,"gmtCreate":1622905963314,"gmtModify":1704193180579,"author":{"id":"3583234199071042","authorId":"3583234199071042","name":"juanjuanjuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583234199071042","idStr":"3583234199071042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112427498","repostId":"1177749357","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177749357","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622862513,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177749357?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple employees oppose returning to office work in internal letters","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177749357","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"近日，苹果公司的员工正在反对一项新政策，该政策要求他们从9月初开始，每周三天返回办公室。据媒体获得的一封内部信件显示，苹果员工们表示，他们希望采用一种更加灵活的方式，满足那些希望可以远程办公的员工们的","content":"<p>Recently, Apple employees are fighting a new policy requiring them to return to the office three days a week starting in early September. According to an internal letter obtained by the media, Apple employees said they wanted to adopt a more flexible way to meet the needs of employees who wanted to be able to work remotely. \"If we lose some of the inclusive principles that accompany flexible work policies, then many of us will feel that we have to choose between family, happiness and working at full strength to think about whether we want to be part of Apple.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple employees oppose returning to office work in internal letters</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple employees oppose returning to office work in internal letters\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-05 11:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Apple employees are fighting a new policy requiring them to return to the office three days a week starting in early September. According to an internal letter obtained by the media, Apple employees said they wanted to adopt a more flexible way to meet the needs of employees who wanted to be able to work remotely. \"If we lose some of the inclusive principles that accompany flexible work policies, then many of us will feel that we have to choose between family, happiness and working at full strength to think about whether we want to be part of Apple.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177749357","content_text":"近日，苹果公司的员工正在反对一项新政策，该政策要求他们从9月初开始，每周三天返回办公室。据媒体获得的一封内部信件显示，苹果员工们表示，他们希望采用一种更加灵活的方式，满足那些希望可以远程办公的员工们的需求。“如果再失去了与弹性工作政策相伴的一些包容性原则，那么我们中的许多人都会觉得，我们必须在家庭、幸福和全力以赴地工作之间做出选择，去思考是否要成为苹果的一员。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116794633,"gmtCreate":1622818188022,"gmtModify":1704191874336,"author":{"id":"3583234199071042","authorId":"3583234199071042","name":"juanjuanjuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583234199071042","idStr":"3583234199071042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/116794633","repostId":"1180481881","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118651227,"gmtCreate":1622731294569,"gmtModify":1704190049552,"author":{"id":"3583234199071042","authorId":"3583234199071042","name":"juanjuanjuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583234199071042","idStr":"3583234199071042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118651227","repostId":"1159708995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159708995","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622705912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159708995?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-03 15:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Behind AMC's 3000% Surge in the Year: Rare CEOs and Rare Deals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159708995","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Reddit散户无视AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc．财务困境和被严重做空的状况大举买入，推动其股价今年以来上涨了3000%左右。这家连锁院线公司也在趁机迎合这种“网红股”","content":"<p>Reddit retail investors are buying heavily in defiance of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.'s financial woes and heavily shorted status, pushing its stock up around 3,000% this year. This chain cinema company is also taking the opportunity to cater to this \"online celebrity stock\" phenomenon.</p><p>The company announced Wednesday that it would reward retail investors with special screenings and free popcorn, among other means. A day earlier, AMC took advantage of a surging share price to raise $230 million by selling new shares to one of its major creditors, Mudrick Capital Management, in a bid to consolidate its finances.</p><p>However, Mudrick immediately sold all AMC shares, making a huge profit, and said the company's shares were significantly overvalued. But Reddit retail investors don't share this view. Encouraged by AMC's pandering to retail investors, the stock at one point surged 127% to an intraday high Wednesday, rising its market cap to about $33 billion, surpassing GameStop's market cap of about $20 billion.</p><p>\"A lot of our investors have shown support and confidence in AMC…After all, these people are the owners of AMC and I work for them,\" AMC CEO Adam Aron said in a statement released Wednesday.</p><p>As of March 11, more than 3.2 million retail investors held AMC stock, more than 80% of its investor base, according to the statement. Aron spoke directly to many new retail investors on his quarterly conference call early last month, praising their enthusiasm and determination.</p><p>He then called on skeptical equity analysts to listen to these investors-\"look at what these people write\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c3a8868864500565a4229b7111fafa6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fundamentals unchanged</b></p><p>Almost never has an American corporate executive welcomed the retail power like Aron. But hardly any company benefits from this group like AMC.</p><p>AMC was on the verge of bankruptcy a few months ago. However, retail investors vowing to subvert the traditional corporate value model have flooded in, pushing up AMC's stock price, making it a representative of online celebrity stocks like GameStop. The frenzy has left Wall Street professionals bewildered.</p><p>\"Obviously the fundamentals are completely unsupportive of this common stock level (which makes sense to Reddit retail investors),\" Mark Levin of Asterisk Advisors wrote in the report.</p><p>The jump in the stock price hasn't changed the company's earnings outlook. Analysts have steadily lowered the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization estimates as the impact of COVID hasn't been erased, and now expect AMC to lose nearly $100 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization over the next 12 months.</p><p>AMC declined to comment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/142cec36bd99e4ac4f992c126628229b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Rising AMC liabilities have also exacerbated the fundamental woes. The company's long-term liabilities rose to $5.4 billion in the first quarter of this year, nearly tripling from less than $2 billion in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cabcacae95b3553223887737cbd0a6b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Rare Stock Buying and Selling</b></p><p>Savvy investors like Mudrick see the surging AMC share price as a unique opportunity to make quick money.</p><p>In the U.S. market, fundraising through the sale of shares to a single holder is relatively rare. And it is almost unheard of for holders to buy shares and immediately sell them. In this case, Mudrick's role in AMC's stock offering is somewhat similar to that of an underwriter in a public offering.</p><p>A Mudrick representative declined to comment, and AMC did not respond to a request for comment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind AMC's 3000% Surge in the Year: Rare CEOs and Rare Deals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind AMC's 3000% Surge in the Year: Rare CEOs and Rare Deals\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-03 15:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Reddit retail investors are buying heavily in defiance of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.'s financial woes and heavily shorted status, pushing its stock up around 3,000% this year. This chain cinema company is also taking the opportunity to cater to this \"online celebrity stock\" phenomenon.</p><p>The company announced Wednesday that it would reward retail investors with special screenings and free popcorn, among other means. A day earlier, AMC took advantage of a surging share price to raise $230 million by selling new shares to one of its major creditors, Mudrick Capital Management, in a bid to consolidate its finances.</p><p>However, Mudrick immediately sold all AMC shares, making a huge profit, and said the company's shares were significantly overvalued. But Reddit retail investors don't share this view. Encouraged by AMC's pandering to retail investors, the stock at one point surged 127% to an intraday high Wednesday, rising its market cap to about $33 billion, surpassing GameStop's market cap of about $20 billion.</p><p>\"A lot of our investors have shown support and confidence in AMC…After all, these people are the owners of AMC and I work for them,\" AMC CEO Adam Aron said in a statement released Wednesday.</p><p>As of March 11, more than 3.2 million retail investors held AMC stock, more than 80% of its investor base, according to the statement. Aron spoke directly to many new retail investors on his quarterly conference call early last month, praising their enthusiasm and determination.</p><p>He then called on skeptical equity analysts to listen to these investors-\"look at what these people write\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c3a8868864500565a4229b7111fafa6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fundamentals unchanged</b></p><p>Almost never has an American corporate executive welcomed the retail power like Aron. But hardly any company benefits from this group like AMC.</p><p>AMC was on the verge of bankruptcy a few months ago. However, retail investors vowing to subvert the traditional corporate value model have flooded in, pushing up AMC's stock price, making it a representative of online celebrity stocks like GameStop. The frenzy has left Wall Street professionals bewildered.</p><p>\"Obviously the fundamentals are completely unsupportive of this common stock level (which makes sense to Reddit retail investors),\" Mark Levin of Asterisk Advisors wrote in the report.</p><p>The jump in the stock price hasn't changed the company's earnings outlook. Analysts have steadily lowered the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization estimates as the impact of COVID hasn't been erased, and now expect AMC to lose nearly $100 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization over the next 12 months.</p><p>AMC declined to comment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/142cec36bd99e4ac4f992c126628229b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Rising AMC liabilities have also exacerbated the fundamental woes. The company's long-term liabilities rose to $5.4 billion in the first quarter of this year, nearly tripling from less than $2 billion in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cabcacae95b3553223887737cbd0a6b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Rare Stock Buying and Selling</b></p><p>Savvy investors like Mudrick see the surging AMC share price as a unique opportunity to make quick money.</p><p>In the U.S. market, fundraising through the sale of shares to a single holder is relatively rare. And it is almost unheard of for holders to buy shares and immediately sell them. In this case, Mudrick's role in AMC's stock offering is somewhat similar to that of an underwriter in a public offering.</p><p>A Mudrick representative declined to comment, and AMC did not respond to a request for comment.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/765eea7b8efcd21c54c30bb5f35bff0d","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159708995","content_text":"Reddit散户无视AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc．财务困境和被严重做空的状况大举买入，推动其股价今年以来上涨了3000%左右。这家连锁院线公司也在趁机迎合这种“网红股”现象。\n该公司周三宣布将以特别放映和免费爆米花等手段奖励散户投资者。一天前，AMC借股价飙升之机向主要债权人之一Mudrick Capital Management出售新股筹资2.3亿美元，以巩固财务状况。\n不过Mudrick旋即就卖掉了所有AMC股票，获利颇丰，并称该公司股价被严重高估。但是Reddit散户并不认同这种观点。受到AMC迎合散户的鼓舞，该股周三一度飙升127%至盘中最高纪录，市值升至约330亿美元，超过GameStop约200亿美元的市值。\n“我们很多投资者都表现出对AMC的支持和信心……毕竟，这些人是AMC的所有者，而我为他们打工，”AMC首席执行官Adam Aron在周三发表的声明中表示。\n根据声明，截至3月11日，超过320万散户投资者持有AMC股票，超过其投资者基础的80%。Aron在上月初举行的季度电话会议上直接跟许多新散户投资者对话，赞扬他们的热情和决心。\n接着，他呼吁持怀疑态度的股票分析师听听这些投资者的心声--“看看这些人写的东西”。\n\n基本面未改\n几乎从未有哪个美国公司高管像Aron这样欢迎散户势力。不过也几乎没有哪个公司像AMC这样得益于这个群体。\nAMC几个月前还濒临破产。然而誓要颠覆传统公司价值模型的散户涌了进来，推升了AMC股价，使之成为像GameStop一样的网红股代表。这种狂热让华尔街专业人士困惑不已。\n“显然基本面是完全不支持这个普通股水平的（对Reddit散户来说却讲得通），”Asterisk Advisors的Mark Levin在报告中写道。\n股价大涨并没有改变该公司盈利前景。由于新冠疫情影响尚未消除，分析师稳步下调该公司息税折旧摊销前利润预期，目前预计AMC未来12个月息税折旧摊销前亏损近1亿美元。\nAMC不予置评。\n\nAMC负债上升也加剧了基本面困境。该公司截至今年一季度长期负债升至54亿美元，从2016年的不到20亿美元增长了近两倍。\n\n罕见的股票买卖\n像Mudrick这样精明的投资者把AMC股价飙升视为赚快钱的独特机会。\n在美国市场，通过向单一持有人出售股票筹资的情况相对少见。而持有人购买股票后立即抛售的情况更是几乎闻所未闻。在这种情况下，Mudrick在AMC发行股票中扮演的角色跟公开发行中承销商的角色有些相似。\nMudrick代表不予置评，AMC没有回应置评请求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119452102,"gmtCreate":1622560502306,"gmtModify":1704186402873,"author":{"id":"3583234199071042","authorId":"3583234199071042","name":"juanjuanjuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583234199071042","idStr":"3583234199071042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119452102","repostId":"1158415504","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137794307,"gmtCreate":1622388183309,"gmtModify":1704183728328,"author":{"id":"3583234199071042","authorId":"3583234199071042","name":"juanjuanjuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583234199071042","idStr":"3583234199071042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137794307","repostId":"1120178589","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135966739,"gmtCreate":1622126596521,"gmtModify":1704180002829,"author":{"id":"3583234199071042","authorId":"3583234199071042","name":"juanjuanjuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583234199071042","idStr":"3583234199071042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135966739","repostId":"1100556299","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136774041,"gmtCreate":1622042335283,"gmtModify":1704178441126,"author":{"id":"3583234199071042","authorId":"3583234199071042","name":"juanjuanjuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583234199071042","idStr":"3583234199071042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136774041","repostId":"1147761031","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133421608,"gmtCreate":1621785516904,"gmtModify":1704362399894,"author":{"id":"3583234199071042","authorId":"3583234199071042","name":"juanjuanjuan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583234199071042","idStr":"3583234199071042"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????","listText":"??????","text":"??????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133421608","repostId":"1169073200","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}