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- XiaoHui_0906XiaoHui_0906
  ·2021-07-20
  Lublin?
  Zhang Kun, the "Number One," makes a rare reflection: Making money will be harder in the next five years.
  7月20日凌晨，易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报，张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。他们的投资组合做了哪些调整？如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌？
  Zhang Kun, the "Number One," makes a rare reflection: Making money will be harder in the next five years.
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- XiaoHui_0906XiaoHui_0906
  ·2021-07-20
  Juju?
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How should we view the recent correction in internet and education stocks and the drop in pork prices?</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun's rare \"reflection\"</b></p><p><b>A decline in returns in the coming years is unavoidable.</b></p><p>During the market correction at the beginning of the year, someone created a \"run away\" emoji. The second-quarter report shows that neither Zhang Kun nor his fund investors \"ran away\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635934407b37961d39c73cbe12e0623d\" tg-width=\"119\" tg-height=\"76\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of the end of the second quarter, Zhang Kun's assets under management reached 134.478 billion yuan, a slight increase from 133.109 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter.</p><p><b>Reflecting on his past investment process, he \"discovered many mistakes\" and lamented the difficulties of investing in the future.</b></p><p>He pointed out that after the pandemic, with the easing of global liquidity, global stock markets have risen significantly. For some companies, assuming all assumptions are met, they may be able to earn a discount rate or a slightly higher rate of return than the discount rate over the next 5 years, but<b>A mistake could result in a stock price drop of 30% or even 50%.</b></p><p><b>In the next few years, many industries will likely face more intense competition than in the past five years, and the difficulty of judging the industry competitive landscape in the next five years will only increase.</b>If you are right, you may only get a mediocre rate of return, but if you are wrong, you will face significant losses.</p><p>\"I often examine portfolios this way: if the stock market is suspended and trading resumes five years later, how much expected compound return can each company bring?\"<b>Based on current assessments, a decline in expected returns over the next few years may be inevitable.</b>\"Zhang Kun stated in the quarterly report.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b85481b6cde0aa5f5a91da45033c97\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun reduces holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Moutai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>Increase position<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Postal Savings</b></p><p>Compared to the first quarter reports of 2021, the stock positions of Zhang Kun's four products all decreased to varying degrees in the second quarter.</p><p>Among them,<b>E Fund's small and mid-cap stock positions saw the largest decline.</b>The proportion of its stock market value to the fund's net asset value decreased significantly from 94.58% at the end of the first quarter to about 71.07%, a decrease of about 24 percentage points.</p><p><b>This is also the lowest stock position at the end of the quarter during the period when Zhang Kun managed the E Fund Small and Mid-Cap Fund, second only to the 72.19% in the 2017 interim report.</b></p><p>E Fund Blue Chip stock positions have been reduced by about 2 percentage points, while E Fund Asia Select and E Fund Premium Enterprises positions have been reduced by about 4-5 percentage points. All three funds have stock positions of around 90%.</p><p>In the second quarter, some of his heavily held stocks saw a pullback, which clearly affected Zhang Kun. Overall, Zhang Kun is hesitant about his views on the computer and consumer goods sectors, which he heavily invests in, while he is optimistic about industries such as banking, real estate, electronics, and pharmaceuticals.</p><p>Looking at the specific holdings,<b>E Fund Asia Select's portfolio also shows that TAL Education Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>STAAR Surgical Co exits top ten holdings</b>Postal Savings Bank of China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">China's overseas development</a>Co., Ltd.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Newly added to the top ten holdings.</p><p>In response, Zhang Kun specifically mentioned this in E Fund Asia Selection.<b>In the second quarter, the stock prices of education and training companies fell significantly due to policy expectations, which had a certain negative impact on the fund's net asset value. This prompted him to reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework and hope to further improve them.</b></p><p>E Fund's top ten holdings in small and mid-cap stocks remained unchanged, with a focus on increasing holdings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600570\">Hang Seng Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002007\">Hualan Biotechnology</a>They focused on reducing their holdings in stocks that had previously seen significant gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">Tongce Medical</a>Moutai, Wuliangye.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072a6f03ba48e67f484c88af03c90da0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Among the top ten holdings of E Fund Blue Chips in the second quarter report, compared to the first quarter report...<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">Aier Eye Hospital</a>For newcomers to the top ten holdings</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">Ping An Bank</a>Then it will drop out of the top ten. However, in its Q4 2020 report, Aier Eye Hospital was also among the top ten holdings of E Fund Blue Chips, and the number of shares held this time is not significantly different from that at the time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a39090f4f108246e7c600c4ba28cd96\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af077204d412ddabad74578a87b1942c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"78\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Information on E Fund's top ten holdings of high-quality companies shows that Aier Eye Hospital and Ping An Bank have newly entered the top ten holdings, while Hualan Biological,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">Jinxin Fertility</a>Then it will exit the top ten holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e29a92a03c39520257974a13d307451\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Liu Gesong increases his allocation to the \"global comparative advantage\" manufacturing sector.</b></p><p>In the second-quarter report of GF Small Cap Fund, Liu Gesong emphasized that he conducted concentrated research in the second quarter on Chinese manufacturing listed companies with \"global comparative advantages,\" such as the photovoltaic industry chain, power batteries, new chemical materials, and panels.<b>It is still believed that the profitability of these manufacturing assets is expected to maintain a relatively long boom cycle, and the valuation expansion of these manufacturing assets has not deviated from the boom range, with a considerable number of assets still offering high cost-effectiveness.</b></p><p>In the second quarter, the fund further increased its allocation to manufacturing sectors, which have a \"global comparative advantage\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51323b149b079c0698e47f8fff7b72be\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding changes in holdings, the fund increased its holdings by 3.5665 million shares in the second quarter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd.</a>The fund holds a total of 18.0015 million shares. The company's stock price recently emerged from the post-Lunar New Year slump and hit a new historical high, with a 41.66% increase in the second quarter. As a result, the fund holds a market value of 1.599 billion yuan, accounting for 10.86% of its net asset value, making it its largest holding.</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300347\">Tigermed</a>Exiting the top ten holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Sokon Group</a>Newly added to the top ten holdings.</b></p><p>Previous announcements revealed that GF Small Cap Fund participated in the subscription of Sokon Group's non-public offering of shares. These restricted shares account for approximately 1.68% of the fund's net asset value.</p><p>The second-quarter report shows that Sokon Group accounted for approximately 4.58% of its net asset value. In other words, in the second quarter, in addition to participating in the private placement, Liu Gesong also bought Sokon shares on the secondary market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660d1a035fd3f8e3bc6be39aec16dc3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Sokon Group's stock price was around 15 yuan at the beginning of the year, and once exceeded 83 yuan during trading in June, an increase of more than 450%. The stock price subsequently corrected, closing at 65.75 yuan at noon on July 20.</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>Xiao Nan significantly increased her holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a></b></p><p>According to the second-quarter report of E Fund Keshun Fixed-Term Open-End Fund managed by Xiao Nan, the fund's stock position was 90.98% as of the end of the second quarter, a slight increase compared to 89.53% at the end of the first quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e35704160d45b51330886e3bd3a3906\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Liquor stocks have shown significant divergence this year.<b>Looking at Xiao Nan's holdings, six of her top ten holdings are still liquor stocks. Looking at the first and second largest holdings, Wuliangye, which performed relatively weakly, did not reduce its holdings, while its stock price rose by more than 19% in the first half of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">Shanxi Fenjiu</a>On the contrary, the number of shares held decreased.</b>。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>The new entry may be one of the manifestations of the significant increase in holdings in the banking sector that Xiao Nan mentioned.</b>。 The second-quarter report shows that China Merchants Bank accounted for approximately 6% of the net asset value, making it the seventh largest holding.</p><p>In addition,<b>He continued to increase investment in the aquaculture sector, but the results were not ideal.</b>—The decline in pork prices exceeded previous expectations, but he is not worried about the long-term potential of related stocks. On the contrary, every industry downturn is a bend in the expansion of high-quality companies and the stagnation and regression of competitors.</p><p>Last year, some of the undervalued stocks he invested in performed poorly, partly due to market style.<b>More importantly, the company's own efforts to get out of its current predicament have not yet yielded the expected results.</b>Fortunately, there aren't many positions in these types of targets. Excessive left-side investing does indeed severely reduce investment efficiency, so he made appropriate adjustments in the second quarter, replacing these companies with companies that were equally cheaply valued but had more new growth potential.</p><p>The adjustments in other sectors are not obvious from the top ten holdings, and more detailed information may have to be provided in the semi-annual reports.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Kun, the \"Number One,\" makes a rare reflection: Making money will be harder in the next five years.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Kun, the \"Number One,\" makes a rare reflection: Making money will be harder in the next five years.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-20 13:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the early hours of July 20, E Fund, GF Fund and other funds successively released their second-quarter reports, and the latest holding changes of star fund managers such as Zhang Kun, Xiao Nan and Liu Gesong were also exposed.</p><p>What adjustments have they made to their portfolios? How should we view the recent correction in internet and education stocks and the drop in pork prices?</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun's rare \"reflection\"</b></p><p><b>A decline in returns in the coming years is unavoidable.</b></p><p>During the market correction at the beginning of the year, someone created a \"run away\" emoji. The second-quarter report shows that neither Zhang Kun nor his fund investors \"ran away\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635934407b37961d39c73cbe12e0623d\" tg-width=\"119\" tg-height=\"76\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of the end of the second quarter, Zhang Kun's assets under management reached 134.478 billion yuan, a slight increase from 133.109 billion yuan at the end of the previous quarter.</p><p><b>Reflecting on his past investment process, he \"discovered many mistakes\" and lamented the difficulties of investing in the future.</b></p><p>He pointed out that after the pandemic, with the easing of global liquidity, global stock markets have risen significantly. For some companies, assuming all assumptions are met, they may be able to earn a discount rate or a slightly higher rate of return than the discount rate over the next 5 years, but<b>A mistake could result in a stock price drop of 30% or even 50%.</b></p><p><b>In the next few years, many industries will likely face more intense competition than in the past five years, and the difficulty of judging the industry competitive landscape in the next five years will only increase.</b>If you are right, you may only get a mediocre rate of return, but if you are wrong, you will face significant losses.</p><p>\"I often examine portfolios this way: if the stock market is suspended and trading resumes five years later, how much expected compound return can each company bring?\"<b>Based on current assessments, a decline in expected returns over the next few years may be inevitable.</b>\"Zhang Kun stated in the quarterly report.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b85481b6cde0aa5f5a91da45033c97\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>Zhang Kun reduces holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">Wuliangye</a>Moutai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>Increase position<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Postal Savings</b></p><p>Compared to the first quarter reports of 2021, the stock positions of Zhang Kun's four products all decreased to varying degrees in the second quarter.</p><p>Among them,<b>E Fund's small and mid-cap stock positions saw the largest decline.</b>The proportion of its stock market value to the fund's net asset value decreased significantly from 94.58% at the end of the first quarter to about 71.07%, a decrease of about 24 percentage points.</p><p><b>This is also the lowest stock position at the end of the quarter during the period when Zhang Kun managed the E Fund Small and Mid-Cap Fund, second only to the 72.19% in the 2017 interim report.</b></p><p>E Fund Blue Chip stock positions have been reduced by about 2 percentage points, while E Fund Asia Select and E Fund Premium Enterprises positions have been reduced by about 4-5 percentage points. All three funds have stock positions of around 90%.</p><p>In the second quarter, some of his heavily held stocks saw a pullback, which clearly affected Zhang Kun. Overall, Zhang Kun is hesitant about his views on the computer and consumer goods sectors, which he heavily invests in, while he is optimistic about industries such as banking, real estate, electronics, and pharmaceuticals.</p><p>Looking at the specific holdings,<b>E Fund Asia Select's portfolio also shows that TAL Education Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>STAAR Surgical Co exits top ten holdings</b>Postal Savings Bank of China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00688\">China's overseas development</a>Co., Ltd.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Newly added to the top ten holdings.</p><p>In response, Zhang Kun specifically mentioned this in E Fund Asia Selection.<b>In the second quarter, the stock prices of education and training companies fell significantly due to policy expectations, which had a certain negative impact on the fund's net asset value. This prompted him to reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework and hope to further improve them.</b></p><p>E Fund's top ten holdings in small and mid-cap stocks remained unchanged, with a focus on increasing holdings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600570\">Hang Seng Electronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002007\">Hualan Biotechnology</a>They focused on reducing their holdings in stocks that had previously seen significant gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600763\">Tongce Medical</a>Moutai, Wuliangye.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072a6f03ba48e67f484c88af03c90da0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Among the top ten holdings of E Fund Blue Chips in the second quarter report, compared to the first quarter report...<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300015\">Aier Eye Hospital</a>For newcomers to the top ten holdings</b>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">Ping An Bank</a>Then it will drop out of the top ten. However, in its Q4 2020 report, Aier Eye Hospital was also among the top ten holdings of E Fund Blue Chips, and the number of shares held this time is not significantly different from that at the time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a39090f4f108246e7c600c4ba28cd96\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af077204d412ddabad74578a87b1942c\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"78\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Information on E Fund's top ten holdings of high-quality companies shows that Aier Eye Hospital and Ping An Bank have newly entered the top ten holdings, while Hualan Biological,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">Jinxin Fertility</a>Then it will exit the top ten holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e29a92a03c39520257974a13d307451\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Liu Gesong increases his allocation to the \"global comparative advantage\" manufacturing sector.</b></p><p>In the second-quarter report of GF Small Cap Fund, Liu Gesong emphasized that he conducted concentrated research in the second quarter on Chinese manufacturing listed companies with \"global comparative advantages,\" such as the photovoltaic industry chain, power batteries, new chemical materials, and panels.<b>It is still believed that the profitability of these manufacturing assets is expected to maintain a relatively long boom cycle, and the valuation expansion of these manufacturing assets has not deviated from the boom range, with a considerable number of assets still offering high cost-effectiveness.</b></p><p>In the second quarter, the fund further increased its allocation to manufacturing sectors, which have a \"global comparative advantage\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51323b149b079c0698e47f8fff7b72be\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding changes in holdings, the fund increased its holdings by 3.5665 million shares in the second quarter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd.</a>The fund holds a total of 18.0015 million shares. The company's stock price recently emerged from the post-Lunar New Year slump and hit a new historical high, with a 41.66% increase in the second quarter. As a result, the fund holds a market value of 1.599 billion yuan, accounting for 10.86% of its net asset value, making it its largest holding.</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300347\">Tigermed</a>Exiting the top ten holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">Sokon Group</a>Newly added to the top ten holdings.</b></p><p>Previous announcements revealed that GF Small Cap Fund participated in the subscription of Sokon Group's non-public offering of shares. These restricted shares account for approximately 1.68% of the fund's net asset value.</p><p>The second-quarter report shows that Sokon Group accounted for approximately 4.58% of its net asset value. In other words, in the second quarter, in addition to participating in the private placement, Liu Gesong also bought Sokon shares on the secondary market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7660d1a035fd3f8e3bc6be39aec16dc3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Sokon Group's stock price was around 15 yuan at the beginning of the year, and once exceeded 83 yuan during trading in June, an increase of more than 450%. The stock price subsequently corrected, closing at 65.75 yuan at noon on July 20.</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>Xiao Nan significantly increased her holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">China Merchants Bank</a></b></p><p>According to the second-quarter report of E Fund Keshun Fixed-Term Open-End Fund managed by Xiao Nan, the fund's stock position was 90.98% as of the end of the second quarter, a slight increase compared to 89.53% at the end of the first quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e35704160d45b51330886e3bd3a3906\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Liquor stocks have shown significant divergence this year.<b>Looking at Xiao Nan's holdings, six of her top ten holdings are still liquor stocks. Looking at the first and second largest holdings, Wuliangye, which performed relatively weakly, did not reduce its holdings, while its stock price rose by more than 19% in the first half of the year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">Shanxi Fenjiu</a>On the contrary, the number of shares held decreased.</b>。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">China Merchants Bank</a>The new entry may be one of the manifestations of the significant increase in holdings in the banking sector that Xiao Nan mentioned.</b>。 The second-quarter report shows that China Merchants Bank accounted for approximately 6% of the net asset value, making it the seventh largest holding.</p><p>In addition,<b>He continued to increase investment in the aquaculture sector, but the results were not ideal.</b>—The decline in pork prices exceeded previous expectations, but he is not worried about the long-term potential of related stocks. On the contrary, every industry downturn is a bend in the expansion of high-quality companies and the stagnation and regression of competitors.</p><p>Last year, some of the undervalued stocks he invested in performed poorly, partly due to market style.<b>More importantly, the company's own efforts to get out of its current predicament have not yet yielded the expected results.</b>Fortunately, there aren't many positions in these types of targets. Excessive left-side investing does indeed severely reduce investment efficiency, so he made appropriate adjustments in the second quarter, replacing these companies with companies that were equally cheaply valued but had more new growth potential.</p><p>The adjustments in other sectors are not obvious from the top ten holdings, and more detailed information may have to be provided in the semi-annual reports.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100583093","content_text":"7月20日凌晨，易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报，张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。\n他们的投资组合做了哪些调整？如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌？\n01\n张坤罕见“反思”\n未来几年回报下降难以避免\n年初市场回调时，有人创造出 “快逃”的表情包。二季报显示，张坤和他的基民都没有“跑”。\n\n截至二季度末，张坤的管理规模达到1344.78亿元，较上季度末的1331.09亿元略有增加。\n在反思自己过往的投资过程，他“发现有不少错误”，同时感慨未来投资之难。\n他指出，疫情后，随着全球流动性的放松，全球股市都有了显著上涨。对于一些公司，在各种假设都兑现的情况下，可能未来 5 年能赚取贴现率或者比贴现率略高的收益率水平，但是一旦错误，可能就要面临30%甚至50%的股价下跌。\n未来几年，不少行业面临的竞争程度恐怕比过去 5 年更为激烈，未来5年行业竞争格局的判断难度恐怕只增不减。如果正确，可能只获得一个平庸的回报率，但一旦错误，却面临不小的损失。\n“我经常这样审视组合，如果股市暂停，5 年后恢复交易，每个企业能带来多少的预期复合收益率，从目前的判断来看，未来几年预期回报率下降可能是难以避免的。”张坤在季报中表示。\n\n02\n张坤减持五粮液茅台好未来，增仓腾讯邮储\n对比2021年一季报，张坤旗下4只产品的股票仓位均在二季度有不同程度的下降。\n其中，易方达中小盘的股票仓位下降幅度最大，其股票市值占基金资产净值比例从一季度末的94.58%大幅降低至71.07%左右，下降了约24个百分点。\n这也是张坤管理的易方达中小盘基金期间，季末股票仓位最低的一次，仅次于2017年中报的72.19%。\n易方达蓝筹股票仓位约降低2个百分点左右，易方达亚洲精选、易方达优质企业仓位约降低4-5个百分点之间。这3只基金股票仓位均在9成上下。\n二季度，部分重仓股回调，显然对张坤颇有触动。总体来看，张坤对于重仓的计算机和消费品行业的看法较为犹豫，对于银行、地产、电子、医药等行业的看法较为乐观。\n从具体的持仓看，易方达亚洲精选的重仓组合也显示，好未来、新东方、STAAR Surgical Co退出前十大重仓股，中国邮政储蓄银行、中国海外发展有限公司、唯品会新入前十大重仓股。\n对此，张坤在易方达亚洲精选中特别提到，二季度，教培企业受政策预期影响股价跌幅较大，对基金净值产生了一定的负面影响，这也使他反思长期投资框架中的一些假设，希望能够将其进一步完善。\n易方达中小盘十大重仓股保持不变，重点增持了恒生电子、华兰生物、重点减持了前期涨幅巨大的通策医疗、茅台、五粮液。\n\n易方达蓝筹2季报前十大重仓股中，对比1季报，爱尔眼科为新入十大重仓股者，平安银行则退出前十大。不过，2020年4季报时，爱尔眼科亦在易方达蓝筹前十大重仓股，此次现身与当时持股数量变化亦不算大。\n\n易方达优质企业前十大重仓股信息显示，爱尔眼科、平安银行新入前十大重仓股，华兰生物、锦欣生殖则退出前十大重仓股。\n\n03\n刘格菘增配“全球比较优势”制造业\n在广发小盘2季报中，刘格菘强调，他二季度集中调研了光伏产业链、动力电池、化工新材料、面板等具备“全球比较优势”特征的中国制造业上市公司，仍然认为这类制造业资产的盈利预计能够保持比较长的景气周期，而且这类制造业资产的估值扩张并没有脱离景气区间，相当一部分资产还具备较高的性价比。\n二季度，该基金进一步提高了具有“全球比较优势”的制造业的配置比例。\n\n持仓变动方面，该基金在第二季度增持了356.65万股隆基股份，合计持有1800.15万股，公司股价近期从年后大跌的“坑”里走了出来并创下历史新高，二季度涨幅达41.66%，因此基金持有其市值达15.99亿元，占净值比例达10.86%，为其第一重仓股。\n此外，泰格医药退出前十大重仓股，小康股份新入前十大重仓股。\n此前公告就会发现，广发小盘参与了小康股份非公开发行股票的认购。这部分流通受限的股票占基金资产净值比约1.68%。\n而2季报显示，小康股份占净值比约4.58%。也就是说，在2季度，除了参与定增，刘格菘也在二级市场买入了小康股份。\n\n小康股份年初股价在15元左右，6月份盘中一度超83元，涨幅超450%。随后股价有所回调，7月20日中午收盘报65.75元。\n04\n萧楠大举增持招商银行\n萧楠管理的易方达科顺定开披露2季报显示，该基金截至二季度末的股票仓位为90.98%，相比一季度末的89.53%略有提升。\n\n年内白酒股分化较大，从萧楠的持仓来看，十大重仓股中仍有6只白酒股。从第一第二大重仓股看，表现相对弱势的五粮液并未减持，而上半年涨超19%的山西汾酒反而持股数有所减少。\n招商银行的新入，或许是萧楠提到的大幅增持了银行板块的体现之一。2季报显示，招商银行占净值比约6%，一举成为第7大重仓股。\n此外，他继续加大了对养殖板块的投资，但从效果看并不理想——猪价的下跌超出之前的预期，但他并不担心相关标的的长期空间，相反，每一次行业低谷，都是优质企业扩张、竞争对手停滞倒退的弯道。\n去年他布局的一些低估值标的业绩表现一般，其中的原因除了市场风格，更多的是公司本身摆脱现有困境的努力还没有出现预期效果。好在，在这类标的的仓位并不多。过多的左侧投资的确会严重降低投资效率，因此二季度他适当做出了调整，将这类公司替换成估值同样便宜但更具备新增长动力的公司。\n而其他的板块调整从十大重仓股看并不明显，或许要等半年报给出更详细的信息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171440339,"gmtCreate":1626759345321,"gmtModify":1703764667701,"author":{"id":"3582006747349058","authorId":"3582006747349058","name":"XiaoHui_0906","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582006747349058","authorIdStr":"3582006747349058"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Juju?","listText":"Juju?","text":"Juju?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171440339","repostId":"2152502996","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}