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青天照大街
青天照大街
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2022-11-14
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
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青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-09-14
$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$
20 20 20??? to the ???
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青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-08-05
Meng
Square, the "North American Alipay," continues to rise, hitting a new all-time high.
周四，美国移动支付企业Square开盘后持续走高，截至发稿涨超6%，创历史新高。 公司近日提前公开二季度财报。总净收入增长超过 143%，毛利润同比增长91%达到11.4亿美元，总交易支付额（GPV
Square, the "North American Alipay," continues to rise, hitting a new all-time high.
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青天照大街
青天照大街
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2021-07-27
?
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青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-07-25
?
When we buy funds, what are we buying?
有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲
When we buy funds, what are we buying?
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青天照大街
青天照大街
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2021-07-22
Zan
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青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-07-21
Zan
Volvo Cars will acquire Geely Holding's equity in Chinese joint ventures
沃尔沃汽车已经与母公司吉利控股达成协议，将收购吉利控股所持两家公司在华合资企业的股权，目的是全面拥有其在中国的汽车制造厂和销售业务。 根据公告，尽管两家合资公司已经纳入沃尔沃汽车的财务报表，但在交易完
Volvo Cars will acquire Geely Holding's equity in Chinese joint ventures
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青天照大街
青天照大街
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2021-07-19
Zan
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青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-07-19
Zan
If you can't stick to it for a long time, how can you get good returns?
1964年，美国电影明星伊丽莎白·泰勒和她的第五任丈夫，理查德·伯顿结婚。这段婚姻持续了十年，是泰勒历任丈夫中婚姻时间持续最长的。1974年，在接受媒体采访时，泰勒说道： 没有任何事情能将我俩分开
If you can't stick to it for a long time, how can you get good returns?
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青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-07-15
Zan
Fosun Pharma and AH shares both rose after reports circulated that its COVID-19 vaccine had passed expert review.
7月15日，复星医药港股盘初大涨涨近7%，报61.3港元；复星医药A股涨逾5%，报68.17元。 据财新，复星医药在股东大会上回复投资人问询时表示，国家药监局对mRNA新冠疫苗“复必泰”的审定工作已经
Fosun Pharma and AH shares both rose after reports circulated that its COVID-19 vaccine had passed expert review.
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>20 20 20??? to the ???","text":"$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$20 20 20??? to the ???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886732804","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899639361,"gmtCreate":1628176905353,"gmtModify":1703502701246,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580972018907173","idStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Meng ","listText":"Meng ","text":"Meng","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899639361","repostId":"1177628375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177628375","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628175372,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177628375?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 22:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Square, the \"North American Alipay,\" continues to rise, hitting a new all-time high.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177628375","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，美国移动支付企业Square开盘后持续走高，截至发稿涨超6%，创历史新高。\n\n公司近日提前公开二季度财报。总净收入增长超过 143%，毛利润同比增长91%达到11.4亿美元，总交易支付额（GPV","content":"<p>On Thursday, US mobile payment companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>The market continued to rise after the opening, rising more than 6% as of press time, setting a new all-time high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8616749dc4d59b9cf8728aeaf1cc3b42\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company recently released its second-quarter financial report ahead of schedule. Total net revenue increased by more than 143%, gross profit increased by 91% year-over-year to $1.14 billion, and gross transaction payments (GPV) increased by 88% to $42.8 billion. Total revenue, including Bitcoin, was $4.68 billion, of which $2.72 billion came from Bitcoin.</p><p>In addition, Square announced the acquisition of Australian financial payments company Afterpay for $29 billion. This is Square's largest acquisition to date, not only expanding its consumer market but also presenting a good opportunity for Afterpay to continue expanding into the US market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square, the \"North American Alipay,\" continues to rise, hitting a new all-time high.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare, the \"North American Alipay,\" continues to rise, hitting a new all-time high.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-05 22:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, US mobile payment companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>The market continued to rise after the opening, rising more than 6% as of press time, setting a new all-time high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8616749dc4d59b9cf8728aeaf1cc3b42\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company recently released its second-quarter financial report ahead of schedule. Total net revenue increased by more than 143%, gross profit increased by 91% year-over-year to $1.14 billion, and gross transaction payments (GPV) increased by 88% to $42.8 billion. Total revenue, including Bitcoin, was $4.68 billion, of which $2.72 billion came from Bitcoin.</p><p>In addition, Square announced the acquisition of Australian financial payments company Afterpay for $29 billion. This is Square's largest acquisition to date, not only expanding its consumer market but also presenting a good opportunity for Afterpay to continue expanding into the US market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c35001aff2d0c88ed509c6e83cf2e54","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177628375","content_text":"周四，美国移动支付企业Square开盘后持续走高，截至发稿涨超6%，创历史新高。\n\n公司近日提前公开二季度财报。总净收入增长超过 143%，毛利润同比增长91%达到11.4亿美元，总交易支付额（GPV）增长88%达到428亿美元。包括比特币在内的总营收为46.8亿美元，其中比特币一项收入达到27.2亿美元。\n此外，Square还宣布以290亿美元的价格收购澳洲金融支付公司Afterpay。这是迄今为止Square最大的一笔收购，不仅为自己扩大了消费者市场，对Afterpay继续开拓美国市场无疑也是个好机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809200579,"gmtCreate":1627369856191,"gmtModify":1703488541822,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580972018907173","idStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809200579","repostId":"2154960559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177689352,"gmtCreate":1627209362076,"gmtModify":1703485584852,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580972018907173","idStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177689352","repostId":"1161895834","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161895834","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627179003,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161895834?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-25 10:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When we buy funds, what are we buying?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161895834","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲","content":"<p>With lithium, it can travel all over the world; without it, it's impossible to move an inch. Recently, with the continued fermentation of carbon neutrality policies, lithium, as a raw material for new energy batteries, has been enthusiastically sought after by the market. \"Grandpa Lithium\" and \"Grandma Cobalt\" are gaining momentum, causing the new energy sector to surge. Many investors, seeing the strong upward trend in the new energy sector, are starting to get excited and are looking for a new energy-themed fund to buy.</p><p>“Some investors buy funds because they are optimistic about certain sectors, such as consumer and military industries, and then find fund managers in the market who are most similar to their ideas and holdings, and then buy them. This is putting the cart before the horse,” said Ye Erle of Guosheng Metal Machinery. “For the same stock or industry, each fund manager’s logic may be completely different, and the money they can ultimately make will also be completely different.”</p><p>Ye Erle believes that we often ask fund managers \"what did we buy\" without knowing \"why did we buy it,\" and the latter question may be more important. Recently, one of his research reports, \"What Money Do Public Funds Really Make? - A Series of Reports on the Evolution of Fund ALPHA,\" has attracted widespread attention in the industry and received unanimous praise from many institutions. In his report, he provided a detailed analysis of the fund's sources of income and introduced a method that differs from the traditional approach to classifying fund managers' abilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457375bc4d0235878aa7dc3b323dbb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ye Erle, analyst at Guosheng Metal Machinery</p><p>Last month, our Yuanchuan Research Institute spoke with Ye Erle, an analyst at Guosheng Metal Machinery, to discuss what kind of money public funds actually make. We hope that this conversation can bring new inspiration to investors about \"buying funds\".</p><p>Below are some of Ye Erle's views on questions such as what to buy in funds, what abilities fund managers possess, and how to build a fund portfolio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafe4d249052d6040ae3bf665fe6edad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Many people ask when buying funds, \"Is it still worth buying this fund after it has risen so much?\" Ye Erle answers: Buying funds is different from buying stocks; it's not advisable to chase high prices in stocks.<b>However, funds can \"chase high prices\" under certain circumstances.</b>Overall, Yerle listed three differences between funds and stocks, which are reflected in pricing, valuation, and risk diversification methods.</p><p>Stock pricing is the result of expectation exchange and expectation game between people based on publicly available market data.<b>The pricing of the fund is determined by the fund manager alone.</b>For stocks to rise, more and more people are persuaded to buy them by a certain narrative or logic. For funds to rise, fund managers need to have the ability to perceive this logic in advance, buy stocks in advance of everyone, and sell them when everyone buys in.</p><p>Stocks have clear valuations, while funds do not have valuation issues in the sense of net asset value. Stocks that rise too much will fall, and stocks that fall too much will rise. However, funds that rise well do not necessarily perform poorly in the future, nor do funds that perform poorly in the past necessarily perform well in the future. There's a highly extrapolated indicator for buying funds called ALPHA, which means...<b>A good past and a good future essentially depend on the ability of a fund manager. Only when a fund manager's capabilities are stable in a certain area can they have long-term momentum in a certain sub-sector's returns, and this long-term momentum in a certain sub-sector's returns also proves that the fund is stable in this type of capability.</b></p><p>Stocks possess inherent risks at the company level, which can be controlled through diversified holdings. Funds are portfolios of stocks, and the risks in this regard are relatively small. Risk control cannot rely solely on simple diversification. For example, if you buy a bunch of funds that tend to favor stocks, although the proportion of individual funds may be very small, the risk of the portfolio in terms of the \"favoring factor\" is very high. Once the favoring collapses, the entire fund portfolio will have a great pullback/retracement risk. In that case, it may not be as good as choosing one fund for each large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap fund, as the risk is more diversified. So,<b>Fund risk needs to penetrate into the underlying style to diversify.</b></p><p>So what is the essence of a fund?</p><p>Yerle believes that the fund remains unchanged.<b>Essentially, a fund manager's so-called circle of competence includes personality, investment system, information sources, and investment model.</b>After years of evolution, it has become difficult for fund managers to classify themselves using simple investment styles such as \"large and small caps,\" \"value growth,\" and \"industry themes.\" Such classifications are less stable and require further attribution of fund returns to summarize the fund manager's stock selection logic and reveal their true capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7147ee6f0c9e846a286b58749c009cb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What kind of money do mutual funds actually make?</p><p>After attributing the returns of public funds in his report, Ye Erle concluded that fund returns include money that fund managers cannot stably earn, money that is inevitably lost, and money that can be stably earned.</p><p>First, the money a fund earns is unstable in terms of market capitalization and valuation. I've only made money in two waves in terms of market capitalization: one was with a small market capitalization in 2014-2016, and the other was with a large market capitalization from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. Market capitalization is very difficult to grasp. In terms of valuation, mutual funds favor overvalued stocks, which brought negative returns before 2019 and positive returns afterward, and the money earned in terms of valuation is not stable.</p><p>Furthermore, mutual funds prefer stocks with high volatility and liquidity, which leads to long-term losses. High volatility refers to the fact that a stock has risen and fallen sharply in the past, which can lead to trading losses. Public funds, constrained by their large size and publicly offered nature, must buy highly liquid stocks. High liquidity corresponds to high pricing efficiency, and the duration of quick-logic money in these stocks has been shortening in recent years.<b>Public funds find it difficult to engage in high-frequency trading and make money from such fast-paced logic, so they basically hand it over to private high-frequency traders.</b></p><p>Therefore, neither money with market capitalization, valuation, nor money with high volatility and liquidity is something that most fund managers can stably control. Yerle believes that<b>When buying funds, one should pay more attention to the fund manager's ability to make stable profits.</b></p><p>Then<b>If mutual funds cannot make quick money, they can only make slow money.</b>Slow-logic money is reflected in the returns of two styles:<b>Momentum and growth.</b>Momentum refers to a logic that can only lead to a steady rise in stock prices over the past 12 months if it develops gradually. Yerle calls this characteristic of steady rise momentum. Growth means that a company has growth potential, and verifying growth potential takes time and thus relies on slow logic.</p><p>Regarding making money from the growth logic, Ye Erle summarized three advantages: (1) The growth logic needs time to be verified and cannot be fully reacted to in the short term, leaving fund managers enough time; (2) The logic of growth will be realized in the short term, which can be verified in stages according to the quarterly report. Each verification can realize some excess returns and make the stock rise continuously. (3) The logic of growth is more verifiable than the logic of value, because the regression of valuation depends on many external macro or market factors. The logic of growth, such as the judgment of the company’s growth rate over 5 years, will definitely have a fact in the next 5 years to verify whether what was said 5 years ago was correct or not.</p><p>Yerle believes that<b>The primary purpose of mutual funds is to predict company performance and profit from growth logic.</b>Because most public funds currently focus on short-term performance assessments, growth stocks are more cost-effective than value stocks: it may take 1 to 3 years for value to return to earn excess returns, and the timing is highly uncertain, while growth stocks can logically realize their returns every quarter.</p><p>From a strategic perspective, Ye Erle introduced another factor that enables funds to make money at the company level in the long term, in addition to performance growth—analyst enthusiasm. Analyst enthusiasm refers to the fact that fund managers typically pay close attention to analysts' recommendations, thereby translating them into their own investment logic.<b>The advantage of having access to information compared to the public is also a reason why mutual funds make money in the long run, as fund managers have faster channels to receive information.</b></p><p>In general, mutual funds in<b>Momentum, Growth, Analyst Sentiment</b>These factors generate long-term profits and are where fund managers' capabilities lie. However, style-based returns such as market capitalization and valuation, as well as trading-based returns such as high volatility and high liquidity, are beyond the control of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cf5bac55700f0cdf8740d80785377cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After understanding the sources of fund returns, how should we proceed when it comes to classifying fund manager competency labels and constructing fund portfolios?</p><p>Yerle uses examples to show us how to analyze a fund. Taking a well-performing fund this year as an example, he quantified the fund's returns, thus summarizing the ability labels that fund managers possess.</p><p>First, Yerle completely broke down the fund's returns into four major sources of income. The fund's performance in \"strategic returns\" was average, but its contribution in \"dynamic returns\" was significant. This means that the fund manager's overall stock selection ability was average, but his swing trading ability was strong. The fund also contributes significantly to \"industry returns,\" indicating that it has chosen a good industry. Based on this, fund managers can be labeled with: dynamic return capabilities and industry allocation capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96be149643d87dd279b716450ccb6797\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Next, we analyzed the fund's \"style returns.\" Since changing fund managers in 2020, the fund's style has shifted to small and medium-sized market capitalization, high momentum, high volatility, high valuation, and high growth, and the style is stable. We found that the fund manager likes to buy small-cap stocks and popular sectors. This labeled him: small to medium market capitalization, popular sector investment, and historically stable style.</p><p>Let's look at the characteristics of industry returns: the concentration of holdings is high, with pharmaceuticals buying nearly 50% of the position and machinery buying nearly 40%. Once you are optimistic about the industry, you bet heavily. In terms of industry switching, they are highly sensitive to cycles, shifting significantly to machinery and chemicals in the second quarter of last year, while the market as a whole paid close attention to these two industries in the fourth quarter. Based on this, it can be labeled as industry concentration.</p><p>Finally, it was observed that the fund had low exposure to the analyst sentiment factor in the second quarter of last year, which means that it was earlier than analysts expected, and its subsequent operations were the opposite of analysts' recommendations. The more analysts recommended it, the more it sold, indicating that it was sensitive to left-side/information changes.</p><p>Based on this, Yerle concluded that the fund manager demonstrated [misconduct] during the management of this fund from January 2020 to March 2021.<b>Strong dynamic investment capabilities and a small to mid-cap investment style.</b>It was able to quickly process market information, decisively and concentratedly adjust positions at critical points on the left and right sides, conduct effective meso-level industry allocation and dynamic individual stock operations, invest in popular sectors with relatively small market capitalizations, and avoid the crowded blue-chip sectors at the time.</p><p>After analyzing such a fund manager, Ye Erle believes that one can focus on the \"personality\" of this fund manager, find similar fund managers, and build a portfolio.</p><p>For example, we could build a portfolio of fund managers who all have strong dynamic return capabilities, or bring out a certain type of fund manager who also have strong stock selection and industry allocation capabilities, continue to track them, and analyze what kind of market this portfolio is suitable for.<b>When you need a fund manager with certain characteristics, Guosheng Metal Machinery can use quantitative methods to select them from a portfolio of fund managers.</b></p><p>Guosheng Metal Machinery has built a long-term tracking fund portfolio on Wind: Guosheng Fund Selection Strategy, which has performed very well in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a439a13ff398b1ae2bd7eae1b60978ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Data source: wind)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb201d1d3189ee8ec2a861a447ce715c\" tg-width=\"388\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Data source: wind)</p><p>This method of classifying fund managers' abilities is an important contribution to Ye Erle's research report. He redefined the dimensions of fund managers, dividing them into various abilities and investment logics. Compared to the previous approach of dividing fund managers by industry and simple style, this method is more stable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0df7a1b499d59e3ea2351cf743665be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For ordinary investors, they should also pay more attention to the various abilities possessed by fund managers when buying funds. Our official WeChat account, \"Yuanchuan Investment Review,\" frequently updates with research and interviews with fund managers, serving as a window for everyone to understand the circle of competence of fund managers.</p><p>Through continuous learning, you will learn which fund managers are good at stock trading, which are good at stock selection, and which industries have strong allocation capabilities, so that you can choose funds that meet your preferences.</p><p>For capabilities that fund managers cannot grasp, such as market capitalization, we can diversify fund risk by building portfolios by combining funds with different market styles (such as large-cap and small-cap).</p><p>However, when building a fund portfolio, everyone's expected returns and risk appetite are different. Understanding yourself and allocating funds according to your own needs are the most important things.</p><p>Finally, Yerle gave ordinary fund investors...<b>Some suggestions:</b></p><p>1. Do not blindly follow trends and buy funds recommended on Alipay's homepage. Be cautious when everyone else is buying.</p><p>2. Don't expect funds with a size exceeding 5 billion yuan to generate strong excess returns outside of the style industry. Guosheng Metal Machinery conducted a test on fund size. On average, the fund's alpha is strongest between 500 and 2 billion yuan under management. Once the fund manager's management scale becomes particularly large, the alpha is likely to decline.</p><p>3. If fund investors lack clear judgment ability, it is recommended to invest regularly to diversify costs and reduce their sensitivity to the win rate.</p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When we buy funds, what are we buying?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen we buy funds, what are we buying?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川投资评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 10:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With lithium, it can travel all over the world; without it, it's impossible to move an inch. Recently, with the continued fermentation of carbon neutrality policies, lithium, as a raw material for new energy batteries, has been enthusiastically sought after by the market. \"Grandpa Lithium\" and \"Grandma Cobalt\" are gaining momentum, causing the new energy sector to surge. Many investors, seeing the strong upward trend in the new energy sector, are starting to get excited and are looking for a new energy-themed fund to buy.</p><p>“Some investors buy funds because they are optimistic about certain sectors, such as consumer and military industries, and then find fund managers in the market who are most similar to their ideas and holdings, and then buy them. This is putting the cart before the horse,” said Ye Erle of Guosheng Metal Machinery. “For the same stock or industry, each fund manager’s logic may be completely different, and the money they can ultimately make will also be completely different.”</p><p>Ye Erle believes that we often ask fund managers \"what did we buy\" without knowing \"why did we buy it,\" and the latter question may be more important. Recently, one of his research reports, \"What Money Do Public Funds Really Make? - A Series of Reports on the Evolution of Fund ALPHA,\" has attracted widespread attention in the industry and received unanimous praise from many institutions. In his report, he provided a detailed analysis of the fund's sources of income and introduced a method that differs from the traditional approach to classifying fund managers' abilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457375bc4d0235878aa7dc3b323dbb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ye Erle, analyst at Guosheng Metal Machinery</p><p>Last month, our Yuanchuan Research Institute spoke with Ye Erle, an analyst at Guosheng Metal Machinery, to discuss what kind of money public funds actually make. We hope that this conversation can bring new inspiration to investors about \"buying funds\".</p><p>Below are some of Ye Erle's views on questions such as what to buy in funds, what abilities fund managers possess, and how to build a fund portfolio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafe4d249052d6040ae3bf665fe6edad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Many people ask when buying funds, \"Is it still worth buying this fund after it has risen so much?\" Ye Erle answers: Buying funds is different from buying stocks; it's not advisable to chase high prices in stocks.<b>However, funds can \"chase high prices\" under certain circumstances.</b>Overall, Yerle listed three differences between funds and stocks, which are reflected in pricing, valuation, and risk diversification methods.</p><p>Stock pricing is the result of expectation exchange and expectation game between people based on publicly available market data.<b>The pricing of the fund is determined by the fund manager alone.</b>For stocks to rise, more and more people are persuaded to buy them by a certain narrative or logic. For funds to rise, fund managers need to have the ability to perceive this logic in advance, buy stocks in advance of everyone, and sell them when everyone buys in.</p><p>Stocks have clear valuations, while funds do not have valuation issues in the sense of net asset value. Stocks that rise too much will fall, and stocks that fall too much will rise. However, funds that rise well do not necessarily perform poorly in the future, nor do funds that perform poorly in the past necessarily perform well in the future. There's a highly extrapolated indicator for buying funds called ALPHA, which means...<b>A good past and a good future essentially depend on the ability of a fund manager. Only when a fund manager's capabilities are stable in a certain area can they have long-term momentum in a certain sub-sector's returns, and this long-term momentum in a certain sub-sector's returns also proves that the fund is stable in this type of capability.</b></p><p>Stocks possess inherent risks at the company level, which can be controlled through diversified holdings. Funds are portfolios of stocks, and the risks in this regard are relatively small. Risk control cannot rely solely on simple diversification. For example, if you buy a bunch of funds that tend to favor stocks, although the proportion of individual funds may be very small, the risk of the portfolio in terms of the \"favoring factor\" is very high. Once the favoring collapses, the entire fund portfolio will have a great pullback/retracement risk. In that case, it may not be as good as choosing one fund for each large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap fund, as the risk is more diversified. So,<b>Fund risk needs to penetrate into the underlying style to diversify.</b></p><p>So what is the essence of a fund?</p><p>Yerle believes that the fund remains unchanged.<b>Essentially, a fund manager's so-called circle of competence includes personality, investment system, information sources, and investment model.</b>After years of evolution, it has become difficult for fund managers to classify themselves using simple investment styles such as \"large and small caps,\" \"value growth,\" and \"industry themes.\" Such classifications are less stable and require further attribution of fund returns to summarize the fund manager's stock selection logic and reveal their true capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7147ee6f0c9e846a286b58749c009cb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What kind of money do mutual funds actually make?</p><p>After attributing the returns of public funds in his report, Ye Erle concluded that fund returns include money that fund managers cannot stably earn, money that is inevitably lost, and money that can be stably earned.</p><p>First, the money a fund earns is unstable in terms of market capitalization and valuation. I've only made money in two waves in terms of market capitalization: one was with a small market capitalization in 2014-2016, and the other was with a large market capitalization from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. Market capitalization is very difficult to grasp. In terms of valuation, mutual funds favor overvalued stocks, which brought negative returns before 2019 and positive returns afterward, and the money earned in terms of valuation is not stable.</p><p>Furthermore, mutual funds prefer stocks with high volatility and liquidity, which leads to long-term losses. High volatility refers to the fact that a stock has risen and fallen sharply in the past, which can lead to trading losses. Public funds, constrained by their large size and publicly offered nature, must buy highly liquid stocks. High liquidity corresponds to high pricing efficiency, and the duration of quick-logic money in these stocks has been shortening in recent years.<b>Public funds find it difficult to engage in high-frequency trading and make money from such fast-paced logic, so they basically hand it over to private high-frequency traders.</b></p><p>Therefore, neither money with market capitalization, valuation, nor money with high volatility and liquidity is something that most fund managers can stably control. Yerle believes that<b>When buying funds, one should pay more attention to the fund manager's ability to make stable profits.</b></p><p>Then<b>If mutual funds cannot make quick money, they can only make slow money.</b>Slow-logic money is reflected in the returns of two styles:<b>Momentum and growth.</b>Momentum refers to a logic that can only lead to a steady rise in stock prices over the past 12 months if it develops gradually. Yerle calls this characteristic of steady rise momentum. Growth means that a company has growth potential, and verifying growth potential takes time and thus relies on slow logic.</p><p>Regarding making money from the growth logic, Ye Erle summarized three advantages: (1) The growth logic needs time to be verified and cannot be fully reacted to in the short term, leaving fund managers enough time; (2) The logic of growth will be realized in the short term, which can be verified in stages according to the quarterly report. Each verification can realize some excess returns and make the stock rise continuously. (3) The logic of growth is more verifiable than the logic of value, because the regression of valuation depends on many external macro or market factors. The logic of growth, such as the judgment of the company’s growth rate over 5 years, will definitely have a fact in the next 5 years to verify whether what was said 5 years ago was correct or not.</p><p>Yerle believes that<b>The primary purpose of mutual funds is to predict company performance and profit from growth logic.</b>Because most public funds currently focus on short-term performance assessments, growth stocks are more cost-effective than value stocks: it may take 1 to 3 years for value to return to earn excess returns, and the timing is highly uncertain, while growth stocks can logically realize their returns every quarter.</p><p>From a strategic perspective, Ye Erle introduced another factor that enables funds to make money at the company level in the long term, in addition to performance growth—analyst enthusiasm. Analyst enthusiasm refers to the fact that fund managers typically pay close attention to analysts' recommendations, thereby translating them into their own investment logic.<b>The advantage of having access to information compared to the public is also a reason why mutual funds make money in the long run, as fund managers have faster channels to receive information.</b></p><p>In general, mutual funds in<b>Momentum, Growth, Analyst Sentiment</b>These factors generate long-term profits and are where fund managers' capabilities lie. However, style-based returns such as market capitalization and valuation, as well as trading-based returns such as high volatility and high liquidity, are beyond the control of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cf5bac55700f0cdf8740d80785377cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After understanding the sources of fund returns, how should we proceed when it comes to classifying fund manager competency labels and constructing fund portfolios?</p><p>Yerle uses examples to show us how to analyze a fund. Taking a well-performing fund this year as an example, he quantified the fund's returns, thus summarizing the ability labels that fund managers possess.</p><p>First, Yerle completely broke down the fund's returns into four major sources of income. The fund's performance in \"strategic returns\" was average, but its contribution in \"dynamic returns\" was significant. This means that the fund manager's overall stock selection ability was average, but his swing trading ability was strong. The fund also contributes significantly to \"industry returns,\" indicating that it has chosen a good industry. Based on this, fund managers can be labeled with: dynamic return capabilities and industry allocation capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96be149643d87dd279b716450ccb6797\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Next, we analyzed the fund's \"style returns.\" Since changing fund managers in 2020, the fund's style has shifted to small and medium-sized market capitalization, high momentum, high volatility, high valuation, and high growth, and the style is stable. We found that the fund manager likes to buy small-cap stocks and popular sectors. This labeled him: small to medium market capitalization, popular sector investment, and historically stable style.</p><p>Let's look at the characteristics of industry returns: the concentration of holdings is high, with pharmaceuticals buying nearly 50% of the position and machinery buying nearly 40%. Once you are optimistic about the industry, you bet heavily. In terms of industry switching, they are highly sensitive to cycles, shifting significantly to machinery and chemicals in the second quarter of last year, while the market as a whole paid close attention to these two industries in the fourth quarter. Based on this, it can be labeled as industry concentration.</p><p>Finally, it was observed that the fund had low exposure to the analyst sentiment factor in the second quarter of last year, which means that it was earlier than analysts expected, and its subsequent operations were the opposite of analysts' recommendations. The more analysts recommended it, the more it sold, indicating that it was sensitive to left-side/information changes.</p><p>Based on this, Yerle concluded that the fund manager demonstrated [misconduct] during the management of this fund from January 2020 to March 2021.<b>Strong dynamic investment capabilities and a small to mid-cap investment style.</b>It was able to quickly process market information, decisively and concentratedly adjust positions at critical points on the left and right sides, conduct effective meso-level industry allocation and dynamic individual stock operations, invest in popular sectors with relatively small market capitalizations, and avoid the crowded blue-chip sectors at the time.</p><p>After analyzing such a fund manager, Ye Erle believes that one can focus on the \"personality\" of this fund manager, find similar fund managers, and build a portfolio.</p><p>For example, we could build a portfolio of fund managers who all have strong dynamic return capabilities, or bring out a certain type of fund manager who also have strong stock selection and industry allocation capabilities, continue to track them, and analyze what kind of market this portfolio is suitable for.<b>When you need a fund manager with certain characteristics, Guosheng Metal Machinery can use quantitative methods to select them from a portfolio of fund managers.</b></p><p>Guosheng Metal Machinery has built a long-term tracking fund portfolio on Wind: Guosheng Fund Selection Strategy, which has performed very well in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a439a13ff398b1ae2bd7eae1b60978ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Data source: wind)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb201d1d3189ee8ec2a861a447ce715c\" tg-width=\"388\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Data source: wind)</p><p>This method of classifying fund managers' abilities is an important contribution to Ye Erle's research report. He redefined the dimensions of fund managers, dividing them into various abilities and investment logics. Compared to the previous approach of dividing fund managers by industry and simple style, this method is more stable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0df7a1b499d59e3ea2351cf743665be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For ordinary investors, they should also pay more attention to the various abilities possessed by fund managers when buying funds. Our official WeChat account, \"Yuanchuan Investment Review,\" frequently updates with research and interviews with fund managers, serving as a window for everyone to understand the circle of competence of fund managers.</p><p>Through continuous learning, you will learn which fund managers are good at stock trading, which are good at stock selection, and which industries have strong allocation capabilities, so that you can choose funds that meet your preferences.</p><p>For capabilities that fund managers cannot grasp, such as market capitalization, we can diversify fund risk by building portfolios by combining funds with different market styles (such as large-cap and small-cap).</p><p>However, when building a fund portfolio, everyone's expected returns and risk appetite are different. Understanding yourself and allocating funds according to your own needs are the most important things.</p><p>Finally, Yerle gave ordinary fund investors...<b>Some suggestions:</b></p><p>1. Do not blindly follow trends and buy funds recommended on Alipay's homepage. Be cautious when everyone else is buying.</p><p>2. Don't expect funds with a size exceeding 5 billion yuan to generate strong excess returns outside of the style industry. Guosheng Metal Machinery conducted a test on fund size. On average, the fund's alpha is strongest between 500 and 2 billion yuan under management. Once the fund manager's management scale becomes particularly large, the alpha is likely to decline.</p><p>3. If fund investors lack clear judgment ability, it is recommended to invest regularly to diversify costs and reduce their sensitivity to the win rate.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/am8U1F6q6VGz2YRds9RHEA\">远川投资评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/am8U1F6q6VGz2YRds9RHEA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161895834","content_text":"有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲动，于是去寻找一只新能源主题基金，准备买入。\n“部分投资者买基金是先自己看好一些板块，比如消费军工之类的，然后再在市场中去找与自己想法持仓最像的基金经理，然后去买它，这有点本末倒置了”国盛金工的叶尔乐说，“对同一个股或行业的配置，每个基金经理的逻辑可能完全不一样，最终能赚到的钱也完全不一样”。\n叶尔乐认为，我们常常会问基金经理“买了什么”而不知道“为什么买”，而后一个问题可能更为重要。最近，他的一篇研究报告《公募基金究竟赚的什么钱—基金ALPHA进化史系列报告》引起了业内广泛关注，受到多家机构的一致好评。他在报告中详细分析了基金的收益来源，并介绍了不同于传统的划分基金经理能力的方法。\n\n国盛金工分析师 叶尔乐\n上个月，我们远川研究所对话了国盛金工分析师叶尔乐，对公募基金究竟赚的是什么钱进行了一系列的探讨，希望通过这次交谈，能够就“买基金”这件事给投资者们带来新的启发。\n以下，是叶尔乐对买基金买的是什么、基金经理具备哪些能力、怎么去构建基金组合等问题的一些看法。\n\n很多人买基金时，会问到“这个基金涨这么多还能买吗？”叶尔乐给出了回答：买基金和买股票不一样，股票不宜追高，但基金在某种情况下是可以“追高”的。总体来说，叶尔乐列举了基金与股票的三个区别，分别体现在定价、估值、风险分散方式上。\n股票的定价是由众人根据市场公开数据进行预期交换、预期博弈得到的结果，而基金的定价是由基金经理一个人决定的。股票要涨，是越来越多的人被某一叙事或逻辑说服而买入，基金要涨，是需要基金经理有提前感知到这样逻辑的能力，提前众人买入股票，并在众人买进来时卖掉。\n股票有明确的估值，基金没有净值意义上的估值问题。股票涨多了会跌，跌多了会涨，而基金并非涨得好的未来表现一定差，也不是以前表现差的未来一定就表现好。买基金有个外推性很强的指标，叫ALPHA中长期动量，意思是过去好的未来好，其本质就是基金经理的能力。只有基金经理某一块能力是稳定的，才能在某一细分收益上有长期动量，而某一细分收益上的长期动量也反证了基金在这类能力上是稳定的。\n股票具有公司层面的特质风险，能通过分散持有来控制，基金是股票的组合，这方面风险已经较小，其风险的控制不能仅靠简单的分散。比如买一堆偏抱团股的基金，虽然可能单个基金占比很小，但组合在“抱团因子”上的风险则非常高，一旦抱团瓦解，整个基金组合都有很大回撤风险，那这样可能还不如大盘中盘小盘各挑一个基金，风险更分散。所以，基金的风险需要穿透到底层风格来分散。\n那么基金的本质是什么呢？\n叶尔乐认为，基金不变的本质是基金经理包括性格、投资体系、信息来源以及投资模式等所谓的能力圈。经过多年进化，基金经理已经很难用“大小盘”、“价值成长”、“行业主题”等简单投资风格去划分，这样的划分稳定性较弱，需要进一步对基金收益进行归因，从而归纳出基金经理的选股逻辑，划分出基金经理的真正能力。\n\n公募基金究竟赚哪些钱？\n叶尔乐在报告中对公募基金的收益进行归因后得出，基金收益中有基金经理不能稳定赚到的钱、不可避免要亏掉的钱、以及能够稳定赚到的钱。\n首先，基金在市值和估值方面赚的钱是不稳定的。市值上只赚过两波钱，一波是14~16年小市值的钱，一波是去年底到今年初的大市值的钱，市值的钱很难把握。在估值上，公募基金偏好高估值股票，这在19年之前带来的是负收益，之后是正收益，估值层面赚的钱也不是稳定的。\n再者，公募基金偏好高波动性和高流动性股票，这使得基金长期亏钱。高波动性是指股票在过去大涨大跌，这会引起交易上的损失。而公募基金受制于大体量和公开募集的属性，必须买高流动性票，高流动性对应高定价效率，快逻辑的钱在这些股票上持续时间近年在越来越短，公募难以做高频交易，很难赚到这种快逻辑的钱，基本将其让渡给私募高频交易者。\n因此，无论是市值、估值的钱，或是高波动性、高流动性的钱，都不是大部分基金经理能够稳定把握的。叶尔乐认为，买基金时更应该关注的是基金经理稳定赚钱的能力。\n那么公募在不能赚快钱的情况下，只能赚慢钱。慢逻辑的钱体现在两种风格收益上：动量和成长。所谓动量，是指一个逻辑只有是慢慢发酵的，最终才可能使股价在过去12个月稳定上涨，这种稳稳上涨的特征叶尔乐称之为动量。而成长就是公司具有成长性，成长性的验证需要时间从而也靠慢逻辑。\n关于赚成长逻辑的钱，叶尔乐总结了三个优点：（1）成长的逻辑需要时间验证，无法在短期反应充分，留给基金经理足够的时间；（2）成长的逻辑短期会有兑现，即可根据季报阶段性验证，每次验证能兑现部分超额收益，使股票连续上涨；（3）成长的逻辑相比价值逻辑是强可验证的，因为估值的回归依赖很多外部的宏观或市场因素，而成长逻辑比如对公司5年增速的判断，那么在未来5年一定存在一个事实验证5年前的话对与否。\n叶尔乐认为，公募基金最主要是预测公司业绩，赚成长逻辑的钱。因为目前公募多以短期业绩考核为主，成长比价值更具有性价比：价值回归可能要等1到3年才赚到超额收益，时间高度不确定，而成长股每个季度都能有逻辑兑现。\n从策略视角，叶尔乐介绍了除业绩增长外，基金在公司层面长期赚钱的另一个因子—分析师热度。分析师热度是指基金经理通常会密切关注分析师的推荐，从而转化为自己的投资逻辑。相比于公众的信息来源优势也是公募基金长期赚钱的原因，基金经理拥有更快接收信息的渠道。\n总的来说，公募基金在动量、成长、分析师热度这些因子上是长期赚钱的，也是基金经理的能力所在，而市值和估值这种风格类收益，以及高波动性高流动性这种交易类收益则是基金经理无法把握的。\n\n在了解了基金收益来源之后，具体到基金经理能力标签的划分、基金组合的构建时又该如何操作呢？\n叶尔乐通过举例来告诉我们如何去分析一只基金。他以今年表现较好的一只基金为例，对这只基金的收益做了量化归因，从而归纳出了基金经理所具备的能力标签。\n首先叶尔乐将基金收益完全分解成四大收益来源，该基金在“策略收益”收益上表现一般，“动态收益”上贡献较大，这意味着基金经理总体选股能力一般，但做波段能力较强。该基金还在“行业收益”上贡献较大，意味着它行业选得好。据此，可以给基金经理贴上标签：动态收益能力、行业配置能力。\n\n接着分析基金的“风格收益”，该基金自2020年换基金经理后，风格切换为中小市值、高动量、高波动性、高估值、高成长，且风格稳健，发现该基金经理喜欢买小票、买热门板块。由此给他贴上标签：中小市值、热门板块投资、历史风格稳定。\n再观察行业收益的特征：持仓集中度较高，医药买了将近50%的仓位，机械买了近40%，一旦看好行业，下注比较重；行业切换上，对周期敏锐度强，在去年二季度大笔切换到机械和化工上，而市场整体高度关注这两个行业是在四季度。据此，可贴标签：行业集中。\n最后，观察到该基金去年二季度在分析师热度因子上暴露较低，意味着他比分析师预期更早，并且他的后期操作与分析师推荐是相逆的，分析师越推荐的他越卖，说明他：左侧/信息变化敏感。\n据此，叶尔乐得出结论：该基金经理在2020.01-2021.03管理这只基金期间表现出了较强的动态投资能力和中小市值投资风格。其能够快速处理市场信息，在左侧右侧临界点果决且集中的调整仓位，进行有效的中观行业配置和个股动态操作，投资较为热门但市值偏中小的板块，避免了当时拥挤的大白马板块。\n分析了这样一位基金经理后，叶尔乐认为，可以以这个基金经理的“个性”为目标，把同类的基金经理都找出来，构建一个组合。\n比如构建一个同样都是动态收益能力较强的基金经理的组合，或者把同样都是选股能力强的、同样都是行业配置能力强的某一类基金经理调出来，继续跟踪，分析这个组合适应什么样的市场。当你需要什么特征的基金经理，国盛金工可以通过量化的方式，将其从基金经理的组合中筛选出来。\n国盛金工在Wind上构建有长期跟踪的基金组合：国盛选基策略，该组合这两年收益表现十分不错。\n\n(数据来源：wind)\n\n(数据来源：wind)\n这种划分基金经理能力的方法，是叶尔乐这篇研报的重要贡献。他将基金经理的维度做了一个重新的划分，划分为各种各样的能力和投资逻辑，相比以往按行业、按简单风格来划分基金经理，这种方式更为稳定。\n\n对于普通投资者来说，在买基金时也应该更多地关注基金经理所具备的各种能力。我们的公众号“远川投资评论”经常会更新一些基金经理的研究和访谈，可以作为大家了解基金经理能力圈的一个窗口。\n通过不断学习，你就会知道哪些基金经理擅长股票交易，哪些擅长选股，还有哪些行业配置能力较强，从而去选择符合我们偏好类型的基金。\n对于基金经理把握不了的能力，比如市值上的能力，我们可以通过搭配不同市场风格（比如大盘小盘）的基金来构建组合从而分散基金风险。\n不过在构建基金组合时，每个人的预期收益和风险偏好不一样，了解自己，根据自己的需求去配置基金才是最重要的。\n最后，叶尔乐对普通基民给出了一些建议：\n1. 切勿盲目跟风购买支付宝首页推荐基金，当所有人都在买时需要谨慎。\n2. 不要期待规模超50亿的基金能带来很强的风格行业以外超额收益。国盛金工对基金规模做过一个测试，基金的阿尔法平均来看在管理规模5~20亿之间最强，一旦基金经理管理的规模变的特别大，阿尔法大概率会有所衰竭。\n3. 基民在没有明显判断能力的情况下，建议定投分散成本，降低胜率敏感性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172603557,"gmtCreate":1626956255279,"gmtModify":1703481274774,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580972018907173","idStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172603557","repostId":"1149284740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176911235,"gmtCreate":1626853775827,"gmtModify":1703479315085,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580972018907173","idStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176911235","repostId":"1195538044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195538044","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626852370,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195538044?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 15:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Volvo Cars will acquire Geely Holding's equity in Chinese joint ventures","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195538044","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"沃尔沃汽车已经与母公司吉利控股达成协议，将收购吉利控股所持两家公司在华合资企业的股权，目的是全面拥有其在中国的汽车制造厂和销售业务。\n根据公告，尽管两家合资公司已经纳入沃尔沃汽车的财务报表，但在交易完","content":"<p>Volvo Cars has reached an agreement with its parent company, Geely Holding, to acquire Geely Holding's stake in the two companies' joint ventures in China, with the aim of fully owning its car manufacturing plants and sales operations in China.</p><p>According to the announcement, although the two joint ventures have been included in Volvo Cars' financial statements, Volvo Cars' share of net profit and equity will increase after the transaction is completed. The transaction will be completed in two phases, starting with China's removal of joint venture requirements for automobile manufacturing in 2022, and is expected to be officially completed in 2023. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and financial details will not be disclosed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Volvo Cars will acquire Geely Holding's equity in Chinese joint ventures</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVolvo Cars will acquire Geely Holding's equity in Chinese joint ventures\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 15:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Volvo Cars has reached an agreement with its parent company, Geely Holding, to acquire Geely Holding's stake in the two companies' joint ventures in China, with the aim of fully owning its car manufacturing plants and sales operations in China.</p><p>According to the announcement, although the two joint ventures have been included in Volvo Cars' financial statements, Volvo Cars' share of net profit and equity will increase after the transaction is completed. The transaction will be completed in two phases, starting with China's removal of joint venture requirements for automobile manufacturing in 2022, and is expected to be officially completed in 2023. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and financial details will not be disclosed.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/895c78542e623e85e47d4f65b83d0817","relate_stocks":{"00175":"吉利汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195538044","content_text":"沃尔沃汽车已经与母公司吉利控股达成协议，将收购吉利控股所持两家公司在华合资企业的股权，目的是全面拥有其在中国的汽车制造厂和销售业务。\n根据公告，尽管两家合资公司已经纳入沃尔沃汽车的财务报表，但在交易完成后，沃尔沃汽车在净利润和股权中所占比例将会增加。交易将分两步完成，从2022年中国取消汽车制造合资要求开始，预计将在2023年正式完成。交易尚待监管部门批准，财务细节不会披露。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00175":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173516090,"gmtCreate":1626669251710,"gmtModify":1703763051685,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580972018907173","idStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173516090","repostId":"1162382593","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173250012,"gmtCreate":1626664082236,"gmtModify":1703762955929,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580972018907173","idStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Zan ","listText":"Zan ","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173250012","repostId":"1112014098","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112014098","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"100%全部原创，没有一篇转载。全部都是干货，没有任何广告或者软文。覆盖的主题：金融、投资、商业、经济和时事。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"伍治坚证据主义","id":"69","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e09863206344e0b010e09146f1c4fc"},"pubTimestamp":1626660566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112014098?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 10:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"If you can't stick to it for a long time, how can you get good returns?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112014098","media":"伍治坚证据主义","summary":"1964年，美国电影明星伊丽莎白·泰勒和她的第五任丈夫，理查德·伯顿结婚。这段婚姻持续了十年，是泰勒历任丈夫中婚姻时间持续最长的。1974年，在接受媒体采访时，泰勒说道：\n\n 没有任何事情能将我俩分开","content":"<p>In 1964, American film star Elizabeth Taylor married her fifth husband, Richard Burton. This marriage lasted ten years, the longest of Taylor's husbands. In 1974, in a media interview, Taylor said:</p><p>Nothing can separate us. Our marriage will last at least another ten years. Five days later, Taylor and Burton divorced.</p><p>This example tells us that it is very difficult to make long-term plans. Often, we think we have a long-term plan that can plan 10, 20, or even further into the future, but the reality may be completely different.</p><p>The traditional Chinese virtue of \"patience\" is becoming increasingly rare. Many teachers who teach at universities must have a deep understanding of this. It's harder than climbing to heaven to get students to concentrate and listen attentively for more than 30 minutes in class. If you confiscate their smartphones and stipulate that they can only be used on weekends, they might fight you to the death.</p><p>In an experiment conducted by the University of Virginia and Harvard University in the United States (Roach, 2016), professors had subjects sit alone in an empty room and think quietly. They were told they needed to sit in a chair for 15 minutes and do nothing. If they really can't sit still, they can choose to end this \"cruel torture\" by electrocuting themselves. As a result, about two-thirds of men and one-quarter of women could not stand the 15 minutes of \"doing nothing\" and chose to end the \"long\" 15 minutes early by electrocuting themselves.</p><p>This impatient behavior has greatly affected the investment behavior of many investors in the financial market.</p><p>Statistics from Orcam Financial Group show that in 1995, the average U.S. stock investor held a stock for more than three months. By 2010, the average length of time investors held stocks had dropped to less than a month. Fast forward to 2020, when the coronavirus broke out, many people were locked at home doing nothing and joined the ranks of day traders. This led to retail investors exceeding institutional investors in the US stock market, becoming the largest contributor to liquidity in the stock market.</p><p>Retail investors lack patience in investing, and institutional investors are no better off. In 2016, State Street conducted a survey of executives from 400 of the largest investment institutions in the United States. The results showed that 80% of institutions could not tolerate a fund performing poorly for two consecutive years, while as many as 99% could not tolerate a fund performing poorly for three consecutive years. In other words, the investment model of most large institutional investors is not much different from that of retail fund investors who chase highs and sell lows. They simply look at the performance of a fund over the past three years: if it is good, they buy or increase their holdings; if it is bad, they reduce their holdings or redeem them. That's all.</p><p>The problem is that this kind of investment behavior that focuses on the short term is unlikely to bring investors the good returns they expect. Based on historical research on the US stock market over the past 25 years (Tidmore and Hon, 2020), focusing on selecting value stocks with low price-to-book ratios can yield returns exceeding the broader market index by 1.1% per year. If you specifically select low-volatility stocks, you can achieve an annual return of 1.9% higher than the broader market index. The problem is that these returns are based on long-term returns accumulated over 25 years. If we analyze carefully how these 25 years have passed, we will find that the vast majority of investors simply could not persevere.</p><p>For example, if we were to choose the past year, there would be a 48% and 52% probability that value strategies and low volatility strategies would perform poorly, lagging behind the broader market index. If we choose any time span over the past three years, the probability of value strategies and low volatility strategies underperforming is 49% and 47%, respectively. In other words, for an investment method that can bring excess returns in the long run, if we only look at short-term performance returns over 1 to 3 years, there is about a 50% chance that it will not work at any time.</p><p>For this reason, even if there are excellent funds that can outperform the index in the long run, most investors find it difficult to buy them, and even if they do, it is difficult to hold them. For example, a statistical study of 2,600 mutual funds in the US market over the past 25 years (Tidmore and Hon, 2020) found that for those mutual funds that outperformed the benchmark index, more than 70% of the sample underperformed their benchmark index returns by 40% to 60% in a given year historically. 80% of the sample performed in the bottom 25% of similar funds within a certain five-year historical period. Most impatient investors' first reaction in this situation is to sell such funds, thus missing the subsequent rebound, let alone trying to beat the market by buying such funds.</p><p>To truly become a long-term investor and a friend of time is easier said than done. Charlie Munger said of Warren Buffett:</p><p>One of his most unique aspects is that he spends a lot of time reading and quietly thinking every day. We've all read stories about kittens fishing since we were little, and we deeply understand that kittens can't even catch a single fish because they lack patience. Many investors agree with the long-standing investment philosophy. However, when it comes to practical application, they often become short-termists who are eager for quick success and instant benefits. Research shows that no single investment strategy can make investors money every month, every day, and every moment. Many investment strategies that can yield better returns in the long run are volatile in the short term, and may not yield poor returns for three or even more than five consecutive years. Under such investment realities, a kitten that lacks patience and is inattentive will find it difficult to catch a big fish. Smart investors need to overcome the bad habit of pursuing short-term profits, take a long-term view, and strive to become a big winner in the long run.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If you can't stick to it for a long time, how can you get good returns?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf you can't stick to it for a long time, how can you get good returns?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/69\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e09863206344e0b010e09146f1c4fc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">伍治坚证据主义 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-19 10:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In 1964, American film star Elizabeth Taylor married her fifth husband, Richard Burton. This marriage lasted ten years, the longest of Taylor's husbands. In 1974, in a media interview, Taylor said:</p><p>Nothing can separate us. Our marriage will last at least another ten years. Five days later, Taylor and Burton divorced.</p><p>This example tells us that it is very difficult to make long-term plans. Often, we think we have a long-term plan that can plan 10, 20, or even further into the future, but the reality may be completely different.</p><p>The traditional Chinese virtue of \"patience\" is becoming increasingly rare. Many teachers who teach at universities must have a deep understanding of this. It's harder than climbing to heaven to get students to concentrate and listen attentively for more than 30 minutes in class. If you confiscate their smartphones and stipulate that they can only be used on weekends, they might fight you to the death.</p><p>In an experiment conducted by the University of Virginia and Harvard University in the United States (Roach, 2016), professors had subjects sit alone in an empty room and think quietly. They were told they needed to sit in a chair for 15 minutes and do nothing. If they really can't sit still, they can choose to end this \"cruel torture\" by electrocuting themselves. As a result, about two-thirds of men and one-quarter of women could not stand the 15 minutes of \"doing nothing\" and chose to end the \"long\" 15 minutes early by electrocuting themselves.</p><p>This impatient behavior has greatly affected the investment behavior of many investors in the financial market.</p><p>Statistics from Orcam Financial Group show that in 1995, the average U.S. stock investor held a stock for more than three months. By 2010, the average length of time investors held stocks had dropped to less than a month. Fast forward to 2020, when the coronavirus broke out, many people were locked at home doing nothing and joined the ranks of day traders. This led to retail investors exceeding institutional investors in the US stock market, becoming the largest contributor to liquidity in the stock market.</p><p>Retail investors lack patience in investing, and institutional investors are no better off. In 2016, State Street conducted a survey of executives from 400 of the largest investment institutions in the United States. The results showed that 80% of institutions could not tolerate a fund performing poorly for two consecutive years, while as many as 99% could not tolerate a fund performing poorly for three consecutive years. In other words, the investment model of most large institutional investors is not much different from that of retail fund investors who chase highs and sell lows. They simply look at the performance of a fund over the past three years: if it is good, they buy or increase their holdings; if it is bad, they reduce their holdings or redeem them. That's all.</p><p>The problem is that this kind of investment behavior that focuses on the short term is unlikely to bring investors the good returns they expect. Based on historical research on the US stock market over the past 25 years (Tidmore and Hon, 2020), focusing on selecting value stocks with low price-to-book ratios can yield returns exceeding the broader market index by 1.1% per year. If you specifically select low-volatility stocks, you can achieve an annual return of 1.9% higher than the broader market index. The problem is that these returns are based on long-term returns accumulated over 25 years. If we analyze carefully how these 25 years have passed, we will find that the vast majority of investors simply could not persevere.</p><p>For example, if we were to choose the past year, there would be a 48% and 52% probability that value strategies and low volatility strategies would perform poorly, lagging behind the broader market index. If we choose any time span over the past three years, the probability of value strategies and low volatility strategies underperforming is 49% and 47%, respectively. In other words, for an investment method that can bring excess returns in the long run, if we only look at short-term performance returns over 1 to 3 years, there is about a 50% chance that it will not work at any time.</p><p>For this reason, even if there are excellent funds that can outperform the index in the long run, most investors find it difficult to buy them, and even if they do, it is difficult to hold them. For example, a statistical study of 2,600 mutual funds in the US market over the past 25 years (Tidmore and Hon, 2020) found that for those mutual funds that outperformed the benchmark index, more than 70% of the sample underperformed their benchmark index returns by 40% to 60% in a given year historically. 80% of the sample performed in the bottom 25% of similar funds within a certain five-year historical period. Most impatient investors' first reaction in this situation is to sell such funds, thus missing the subsequent rebound, let alone trying to beat the market by buying such funds.</p><p>To truly become a long-term investor and a friend of time is easier said than done. Charlie Munger said of Warren Buffett:</p><p>One of his most unique aspects is that he spends a lot of time reading and quietly thinking every day. We've all read stories about kittens fishing since we were little, and we deeply understand that kittens can't even catch a single fish because they lack patience. Many investors agree with the long-standing investment philosophy. However, when it comes to practical application, they often become short-termists who are eager for quick success and instant benefits. Research shows that no single investment strategy can make investors money every month, every day, and every moment. Many investment strategies that can yield better returns in the long run are volatile in the short term, and may not yield poor returns for three or even more than five consecutive years. Under such investment realities, a kitten that lacks patience and is inattentive will find it difficult to catch a big fish. Smart investors need to overcome the bad habit of pursuing short-term profits, take a long-term view, and strive to become a big winner in the long run.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939332859a8a952a612c5d07d00550df","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112014098","content_text":"1964年，美国电影明星伊丽莎白·泰勒和她的第五任丈夫，理查德·伯顿结婚。这段婚姻持续了十年，是泰勒历任丈夫中婚姻时间持续最长的。1974年，在接受媒体采访时，泰勒说道：\n\n 没有任何事情能将我俩分开。我们的婚姻会至少再维持十年。\n\n5天之后，泰勒和伯顿离婚了。\n这个例子告诉我们，要想做长期的长远打算，是很难的。很多时候，我们自以为有一个长期的打算，可以计划到10年、20年以后甚至更远的将来，然而现实很可能完全是另一回事。\n“耐心”这个传统的中华美德，正在变得越来越稀有。很多在大学教书的老师对此一定深有体会。在课堂里要想让同学们集中精神，心无旁骛的听课超过30分钟，简直比登天还难。如果把他们的智能手机没收，规定要等到双休日才能再使用，那对方可能会和你拼命。\n在美国弗吉尼亚大学和哈佛大学做的一个实验（Roach, 2016）中，教授让实验对象独自坐在一个空房间内安静的思考。他们被告知，需要在椅子上静坐15分钟，什么都不做。如果他们实在坐不下去，则可以选择通过电击自己的方式来结束这“残酷的折磨”。结果，大约有2/3的男士和1/4的女士无法忍受“无所事事”的15分钟，选择用电击自己的方式提前结束这“漫长”的15分钟。\n如此“缺乏耐心”的行为习惯，也极大的影响了广大投资者在金融市场上的投资行为。\nOrcam Financial Group的统计研究显示，在1995年，美国股民平均持有股票的时间为3个多月。而到了2010年，股民平均持有股票的时间长度下降到不到1个月。再快进到2020年，新冠病毒爆发，很多人被锁在家里无所事事，加入了日间交易的大军，导致美国股市中散户的交易量超过机构，成为股市中流动性的最大贡献力量。\n散户在投资中缺乏耐心，机构也好不到哪里去。2016年，道富公司向美国400家规模最大的投资机构的高管发起问卷调查，统计结果显示：80%的机构无法容忍一个基金连续两年回报不佳，而高达99%的机构无法容忍一个基金连续三年回报不佳。也就是说，绝大多数规模比较大的机构投资者，他们的投资模式其实和追涨杀跌的散户基民没啥大差别，无非就是看一个基金过去3年的回报表现：好的话就买入或者增持，差的话就减持或者赎回，仅此而已。\n问题在于，这种专注于短期的投资行为，是不太可能为投资者带来期望中的好回报的。基于美国股市过去25年的历史研究（Tidmore and Hon, 2020）显示，如果专注于挑选市净率比较低的价值股，可以获得超过大盘指数每年1.1%的回报。如果专门挑选那些低波动股票，可以获得超过大盘指数每年1.9%的回报。问题在于，这些回报是基于25年积累下来的长期回报。而如果我们细细分析这25年是怎么过来的，就会发现绝大部分投资者根本无法坚持下来。\n举例来说，如果我们任选过去1年，那么价值策略和低波动策略分别有48%和52%的概率表现不佳，落后大盘指数。如果我们任选过去3年的时间跨度，价值策略和低波动策略表现不佳的概率分别为49%和47%。也就是说，对于一个长期来看能够带来超额投资回报的投资方法，如果我们只看1到3年的短期业绩回报，那么在任何时候，都有差不多一半的概率行不通。\n正是因为这个原因，即使存在那些长期能够战胜指数的优秀基金，大部分投资者也很难买到，即使买到也很难持有。比如基于美国市场过去25年，2600只公募基金的统计研究（Tidmore and Hon, 2020）发现，对于那些战胜基准指数的公募基金来说，有超过70%的样本，在历史上的某一年内，比其基准指数回报落后40%到60%。有80%的样本，在历史上的某一个5年内，其业绩位于同类基金最差的25%类别。绝大部分缺乏耐心的投资者，在这种情况下，第一反应就是把这样的基金卖掉，因此也就错过了接下来的反弹，更别提通过购买这样的基金来战胜市场了。\n要想真正成为长期投资者，做时间的朋友，说起来容易做起来难。查理·芒格在评价沃伦·巴菲特时说过：\n\n 他的一个最与众不同的地方就是每天都花大量的时间看书，并且静静的思考。\n\n我们从小都读过小猫钓鱼的故事，深深明白小猫由于缺乏耐心而连一条鱼都钓不到。很多投资者，都认同长期坚持的投资哲学。但是到了实践操作的时候，却往往变成了急功近利的短期主义者。研究显示，没有什么投资策略，是能够让投资者每月，每天，每时每刻都赚钱的。很多长期来看能够获得更好回报的投资策略，在短期内却充满着波动，很可能连续3年，甚至5年以上回报不佳。在这样的投资现实之下，缺乏耐心、三心二意的小猫，是很难钓到大鱼的。聪明的投资者，需要克服短期逐利的坏习惯，眼光放长远，力争做一个长期的大赢家。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144730289,"gmtCreate":1626313531141,"gmtModify":1703757652665,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580972018907173","idStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144730289","repostId":"1134354713","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134354713","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626313344,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134354713?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 09:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Fosun Pharma and AH shares both rose after reports circulated that its COVID-19 vaccine had passed expert review.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134354713","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月15日，复星医药港股盘初大涨涨近7%，报61.3港元；复星医药A股涨逾5%，报68.17元。\n据财新，复星医药在股东大会上回复投资人问询时表示，国家药监局对mRNA新冠疫苗“复必泰”的审定工作已经","content":"<p>On July 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02196\">Fosun Pharma</a>Hong Kong stocks surged nearly 7% in early trading to HK$61.3;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>A-shares rose more than 5% to 68.17 yuan.</p><p>According to Caixin, Fosun Pharma responded to investor inquiries at the shareholders' meeting, stating that the National Medical Products Administration's review and approval of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine \"Fubitai\" has been basically completed, the expert review has been passed, and the administrative approval stage is currently being expedited.</p><p>Fosun Pharma and BioNTech have started production preparations in advance, and once the FubiTech vaccine is approved, it can be supplied to China as soon as possible; Sources familiar with the matter say that in the future, Fubitai is likely to be used as a booster shot in China and administered free of charge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcda9ea7ea213d3473fb919157b59bc5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb875ce2002f9e31d921cfdc9eadf9b4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fosun Pharma and AH shares both rose after reports circulated that its COVID-19 vaccine had passed expert review.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFosun Pharma and AH shares both rose after reports circulated that its COVID-19 vaccine had passed expert review.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-15 09:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02196\">Fosun Pharma</a>Hong Kong stocks surged nearly 7% in early trading to HK$61.3;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>A-shares rose more than 5% to 68.17 yuan.</p><p>According to Caixin, Fosun Pharma responded to investor inquiries at the shareholders' meeting, stating that the National Medical Products Administration's review and approval of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine \"Fubitai\" has been basically completed, the expert review has been passed, and the administrative approval stage is currently being expedited.</p><p>Fosun Pharma and BioNTech have started production preparations in advance, and once the FubiTech vaccine is approved, it can be supplied to China as soon as possible; Sources familiar with the matter say that in the future, Fubitai is likely to be used as a booster shot in China and administered free of charge.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcda9ea7ea213d3473fb919157b59bc5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb875ce2002f9e31d921cfdc9eadf9b4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abbd3fc26184cc69ef95a83e11f6419","relate_stocks":{"150130":"医药A","600196":"复星医药","02196":"复星医药"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134354713","content_text":"7月15日，复星医药港股盘初大涨涨近7%，报61.3港元；复星医药A股涨逾5%，报68.17元。\n据财新，复星医药在股东大会上回复投资人问询时表示，国家药监局对mRNA新冠疫苗“复必泰”的审定工作已经基本完成，专家评审已经通过了，目前正在加紧进行行政审批阶段。\n复星医药已与BioNTech提前启动生产准备工作，复必泰疫苗一旦获批，就能第一时间供应到国内；知情人士称，未来，复必泰在国内很可能会作为加强针使用，免费接种。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"150130":0.9,"600196":0.9,"02196":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}