To The Moon
Home
News
TigerAI
Log In
Sign Up
青天照大街
+Follow
Posts · 266
Posts · 266
Following · 0
Following · 0
Followers · 0
Followers · 0
青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2022-11-14
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
看
3.17K
回复
Comment
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-09-14
$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$
20 20 20??? to the ???
看
3.42K
回复
Comment
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-08-05
Meng
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
4.15K
回复
1
点赞
7
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-07-27
?
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
3.41K
回复
1
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-07-25
?
What are we buying when we buy funds?
有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲
What are we buying when we buy funds?
看
3.67K
回复
1
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-07-22
Zan
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
3.34K
回复
1
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-07-21
Zan
Volvo Cars to acquire Geely Holdings'stake in Chinese joint venture
沃尔沃汽车已经与母公司吉利控股达成协议，将收购吉利控股所持两家公司在华合资企业的股权，目的是全面拥有其在中国的汽车制造厂和销售业务。 根据公告，尽管两家合资公司已经纳入沃尔沃汽车的财务报表，但在交易完
Volvo Cars to acquire Geely Holdings'stake in Chinese joint venture
看
3.25K
回复
1
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-07-19
Zan
Sorry, this post has been deleted
看
3.28K
回复
1
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-07-19
Zan
How can I get a good return if I can't stick to it for a long time?
1964年，美国电影明星伊丽莎白·泰勒和她的第五任丈夫，理查德·伯顿结婚。这段婚姻持续了十年，是泰勒历任丈夫中婚姻时间持续最长的。1974年，在接受媒体采访时，泰勒说道： 没有任何事情能将我俩分开
How can I get a good return if I can't stick to it for a long time?
看
3.14K
回复
Comment
点赞
1
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
青天照大街
青天照大街
·
2021-07-15
Zan
Fosun Pharma's AH rose together, COVID-19 vaccine is rumored to have passed expert review
7月15日，复星医药港股盘初大涨涨近7%，报61.3港元；复星医药A股涨逾5%，报68.17元。 据财新，复星医药在股东大会上回复投资人问询时表示，国家药监局对mRNA新冠疫苗“复必泰”的审定工作已经
Fosun Pharma's AH rose together, COVID-19 vaccine is rumored to have passed expert review
看
3.58K
回复
2
点赞
3
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Load more
Most Discussed
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3580972018907173","uuid":"3580972018907173","gmtCreate":1617878681085,"gmtModify":1760486521961,"name":"青天照大街","pinyin":"qtzdjqingtianzhaodajie","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6219675842600ebb42baa43c645832","hatId":"shopping-ade52cc5578c0ab14ae09872a9e5bce2","hatName":"英伟达头像框","vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":16,"headSize":474,"tweetSize":266,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.10.29","exceedPercentage":"93.76%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.05.18","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.29","exceedPercentage":"80.32%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":4,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":9969647625,"gmtCreate":1668439293567,"gmtModify":1676538056976,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580972018907173","authorIdStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969647625","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886732804,"gmtCreate":1631624926208,"gmtModify":1676530592673,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580972018907173","authorIdStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>20 20 20??? to the ???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>20 20 20??? to the ???","text":"$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$20 20 20??? to the ???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886732804","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899639361,"gmtCreate":1628176905353,"gmtModify":1703502701246,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580972018907173","authorIdStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meng ","listText":"Meng ","text":"Meng","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899639361","repostId":"1177628375","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809200579,"gmtCreate":1627369856191,"gmtModify":1703488541822,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580972018907173","authorIdStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809200579","repostId":"2154960559","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177689352,"gmtCreate":1627209362076,"gmtModify":1703485584852,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580972018907173","authorIdStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177689352","repostId":"1161895834","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161895834","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627179003,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161895834?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-25 10:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What are we buying when we buy funds?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161895834","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲","content":"<p>There is \"lithium\" all over the world, but it is difficult to move without \"lithium\". Recently, under the continuous fermentation of carbon neutrality policy, lithium, as the raw material of new energy batteries, has been enthusiastically sought after by the market. \"Grandpa Lithium\" and \"Grandma Cobalt\" showed their might, and the new energy sector soared. Many investors saw that the new energy sector with a great rise began to move, so they went to find a new energy theme fund and prepared to buy it.</p><p>\"Some investors buy funds because they are optimistic about some sectors first, such as consuming military industry, and then find the fund manager who holds the most ideas and positions in the market, and then buy it. This is a bit of putting the cart before the horse,\" said Ye Erle of Guosheng Metalworking. \"For the allocation of the same stock or industry, the logic of each fund manager may be completely different, and the money he can make in the end is completely different.\"</p><p>Ye Erle believes that we often ask fund managers \"what they bought\" without knowing \"why they bought\", and the latter question may be more important. Recently, one of his research reports \"What Money Does Public Offering of Fund Earn-Series Report on the Evolution History of Fund ALPHA\" has attracted wide attention in the industry and was well received by many institutions. In his report, he analyzes in detail the sources of income for funds and introduces different methods of dividing fund managers' capabilities from traditional ones.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457375bc4d0235878aa7dc3b323dbb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ye Erle, analyst at Guosheng Metalworking</p><p>Last month, our Yuanchuan Research Institute had a dialogue with Ye Erle, an analyst of Guosheng Metalworking, and had a series of discussions on what money Public Offering of Fund made. I hope that through this conversation, we can bring new inspiration to investors about \"buying funds\".</p><p>Here are some views of Ye Erle on what to buy funds, what abilities fund managers have, and how to build fund portfolios.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafe4d249052d6040ae3bf665fe6edad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When many people buy funds, they will ask, \"Can this fund still be bought after it has risen so much?\" Ye Erle gave an answer: Buying funds is different from buying stocks, and stocks should not be chased higher.<b>But funds can \"chase high\" under certain circumstances.</b>Generally speaking, Ye Erle listed three differences between funds and stocks, which are reflected in pricing, valuation and risk diversification.</p><p>The pricing of stocks is the result of expected exchange and expected game by people according to market public data,<b>And the pricing of the fund is determined by the fund manager alone.</b>If the stock wants to rise, more and more people are persuaded to buy by a certain narrative or logic. If the fund wants to rise, the fund manager needs to have the ability to perceive such logic in advance, buy the stock in advance, and sell it when everyone buys it.</p><p>Stocks have a clear valuation, and funds have no valuation problems in the sense of net worth. If the stock rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise. However, the future performance of the fund is not necessarily poor if it rises well, nor is it necessarily good if it performs poorly before. Buying funds has a highly extrapolated indicator called ALPHA medium and long-term momentum, which means<b>The essence of a good past and a good future is the ability of fund managers. Only when a fund manager's ability is stable can he have long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income, and the long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income also proves that the fund is stable in this kind of ability.</b></p><p>Stock has the characteristic risk at the company level, which can be controlled by decentralized holding. Fund is a combination of stocks, and the risk in this aspect is already small, so its risk control can't only rely on simple decentralization. For example, buying a bunch of funds that are partial to group stocks, although a single fund may account for a small proportion, the risk of combining them in the \"group factor\" is very high. Once the group collapses, the whole fund portfolio has great pullback/retracement risks, so it may be better to pick a fund in the large market, mid-cap and small cap, and the risk is more dispersed. So,<b>The risk of the fund needs to penetrate into the underlying style to spread.</b></p><p>So what is the nature of a fund?</p><p>Ye Erle believes that the fund is unchanged<b>The essence is that fund managers include so-called circles of competence such as personality, investment system, information sources and investment patterns.</b>After years of evolution, it has been difficult for fund managers to divide them by simple investment styles such as \"big and small\", \"value growth\" and \"industry theme\". Such division has weak stability, and it is necessary to further attribute the fund income, so as to summarize the stock selection logic of fund managers and divide the real ability of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7147ee6f0c9e846a286b58749c009cb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What kind of money does Public Offering of Fund make?</p><p>After attributing the income of Public Offering of Fund in the report, Ye Erle concluded that the fund income includes money that fund managers can't make stably, money that they will inevitably lose, and money that can be made stably.</p><p>First, the money the fund makes in terms of market capitalization and valuation is volatile. Only two waves of money have been earned in market value, one is small market value money in 14~16 years, and the other is large market value money from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. It is difficult to grasp the market value money. In terms of valuation, Public Offering of Fund prefers high-valuation stocks, which brought negative returns 19 years ago, followed by positive returns, and the money earned at the valuation level is not stable.</p><p>Furthermore, Public Offering of Fund prefers high volatility and high liquidity stocks, which makes the fund lose money for a long time. High volatility is when stocks have risen and fallen sharply in the past, which can cause losses on trading. However, Public Offering of Fund is subject to the attributes of large volume and public offering, so it must buy high liquidity tickets. High liquidity corresponds to high pricing efficiency, and the duration of fast logical money on these stocks is getting shorter and shorter in recent years.<b>It is difficult for public offering to do high-frequency trading, and it is difficult to earn such fast and logical money, so it is basically transferred to private high-frequency traders.</b></p><p>Therefore, whether it is market value, valuation money, or high volatility and liquidity money, it is not something that most fund managers can stably grasp. Ye Erle believes that,<b>When buying a fund, you should pay more attention to the fund manager's ability to make money steadily.</b></p><p>Then<b>Public offering can only make slow money when it can't make fast money.</b>Slow logic money is reflected in two styles of benefits:<b>Momentum and growth.</b>The so-called momentum means that only when a logic is slowly fermented can it finally make the stock price rise steadily in the past 12 months. This feature of steady rise is called momentum by Ye Erle. Growth means that the company has growth, and the verification of growth takes time and thus depends on slow logic.</p><p>Regarding earning money from growth logic, Ye Erle summarized three advantages: (1) The logic of growth takes time to verify, and it can't react fully in the short term, leaving fund managers with enough time; (2) The logic of growth will be realized in the short term, that is, it can be verified in stages according to the quarterly report. Each verification can realize some excess returns, so that the stock can continue to rise; (3) Compared with value logic, the logic of growth is strongly verifiable, because the return of valuation depends on many external macro or market factors, and the logic of growth, such as the judgment of the company's five-year growth rate, must have a fact in the next five years to verify whether the words five years ago are correct or not.</p><p>Ye Erle believes that,<b>Public Offering of Fund is most important to predict the company's performance and earn money from growth logic.</b>At present, public offerings are mainly based on short-term performance appraisal, and growth is more cost-effective than value: it may take 1 to 3 years for the return of value to earn excess returns, and the time is highly uncertain, while growth stocks can be logically realized every quarter.</p><p>From a strategic perspective, Ye Erle introduced another factor for the fund to make money at the company level in addition to performance growth-the popularity of analysts. Analyst heat means that fund managers usually pay close attention to analysts' recommendations, which are translated into their own investment logic.<b>Compared with the advantage of the public's information source, which is also the reason why Public Offering of Fund makes money for a long time, fund managers have faster channels to receive information.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, Public Offering of Funds in<b>Momentum, Growth, Analyst Heat</b>These factors are long-term profitable, which is also the ability of fund managers. However, the style income of market value and valuation, and the trading income of high volatility and high liquidity are beyond the grasp of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cf5bac55700f0cdf8740d80785377cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After understanding the source of fund income, how should we operate when dividing fund managers' ability labels and constructing fund portfolios?</p><p>Ye Erle gives us an example of how to analyze a fund. Taking a fund that performed better this year as an example, he quantitatively attributed the income of this fund, thus summarizing the ability label of fund managers.</p><p>First of all, Ye Erle completely decomposes the fund's income into four sources of income. The fund's performance in \"strategic income\" is average, and its contribution in \"dynamic income\" is greater, which means that the fund manager's overall stock selection ability is average, but the ability to do bands is strong. The fund also contributes greatly to \"industry income\", which means that it has chosen the industry well. Accordingly, fund managers can be labeled: dynamic profitability and industry allocation ability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96be149643d87dd279b716450ccb6797\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then analyze the \"style income\" of the fund. Since the fund manager changed in 2020, the style of the fund has been switched to small and medium-sized market capitalization, high momentum, high volatility, high valuation, high growth, and the style is stable. It is found that the fund manager likes to buy small tickets and popular sectors. From this, he is labeled: small and medium-sized market capitalization, hot sector investment, and stable historical style.</p><p>Observe the characteristics of industry income again: the concentration of positions is high, nearly 50% of the positions are bought in medicine, and nearly 40% of the positions are bought in machinery. Once you are optimistic about the industry, the bets are heavier; In terms of industry switching, it has a strong acuity for the cycle. In the second quarter of last year, it switched to machinery and chemicals, and the market as a whole paid close attention to these two industries in the fourth quarter. Accordingly, you can label: industry concentration.</p><p>Finally, it was observed that the fund's low exposure to analysts' heat factor in the second quarter of last year meant that he was earlier than analysts' expectations, and his later operation was contrary to analysts' recommendations. The more analysts recommended, the more he sold, which indicated that he was sensitive to left/information changes.</p><p>Accordingly, Ye Erle concluded that the fund manager showed<b>Strong dynamic investment ability and small and medium market capitalization investment style.</b>It can quickly process market information, decisively and centrally adjust positions at the critical points on the left and right sides, carry out effective meso-industry allocation and dynamic operation of individual stocks, invest in sectors with popular but small and medium-sized market value, and avoid the crowded Big White Horse sector at that time.</p><p>After analyzing such a fund manager, Ye Erle believes that it is possible to find out all similar fund managers and build a combination with the \"personality\" of this fund manager as the goal.</p><p>For example, build a portfolio of fund managers with strong dynamic profitability, or transfer out a certain type of fund managers with strong stock selection ability and strong industry allocation ability, and continue to track and analyze what kind of market this portfolio is suitable for.<b>When you need what characteristics of fund managers, Guosheng Metalworking can quantify them from the portfolio of fund managers.</b></p><p>Guosheng Metalworking has built a fund portfolio with long-term tracking on Wind: Guosheng Base Selection Strategy, which has performed very well in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a439a13ff398b1ae2bd7eae1b60978ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb201d1d3189ee8ec2a861a447ce715c\" tg-width=\"388\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p>This method of dividing the ability of fund managers is an important contribution of Ye Erle's research report. He re-divided the dimension of fund managers into various abilities and investment logic, which is more stable than the previous division of fund managers by industry and simple style.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0df7a1b499d59e3ea2351cf743665be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For ordinary investors, when buying funds, they should also pay more attention to the various abilities of fund managers. Our WeChat official account \"Yuanchuan Investment Review\" often updates the research and interviews of some fund managers, which can be used as a window for everyone to understand the competence circle of fund managers.</p><p>Through continuous learning, you will know which fund managers are good at stock trading, which are good at stock selection, and which industries have strong allocation ability, so as to choose funds that meet our preference types.</p><p>For the ability that fund managers can't grasp, such as the ability of market value, we can build a portfolio by matching funds with different market styles (such as large cap and small cap) to diversify fund risks.</p><p>However, when building a fund portfolio, everyone's expected return and risk appetite are different. It is the most important thing to know yourself and allocate funds according to your own needs.</p><p>Finally, Ye Erle gives ordinary Christians<b>Some suggestions:</b></p><p>1. Don't blindly follow the trend to buy Alipay homepage recommended funds. You need to be cautious when everyone is buying.</p><p>2. Don't expect funds with a scale of over 5 billion to bring strong excess returns outside the style industry. Guosheng Metalworking has done a test on the fund scale. On average, the alpha of the fund is the strongest between 500 and 2 billion yuan in management scale. Once the scale of fund manager management becomes particularly large, the alpha will probably fail.</p><p>3. In the absence of obvious judgment ability, Christians suggest fixed investment to diversify costs and reduce the sensitivity of winning rate.</p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What are we buying when we buy funds?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat are we buying when we buy funds?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川投资评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 10:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There is \"lithium\" all over the world, but it is difficult to move without \"lithium\". Recently, under the continuous fermentation of carbon neutrality policy, lithium, as the raw material of new energy batteries, has been enthusiastically sought after by the market. \"Grandpa Lithium\" and \"Grandma Cobalt\" showed their might, and the new energy sector soared. Many investors saw that the new energy sector with a great rise began to move, so they went to find a new energy theme fund and prepared to buy it.</p><p>\"Some investors buy funds because they are optimistic about some sectors first, such as consuming military industry, and then find the fund manager who holds the most ideas and positions in the market, and then buy it. This is a bit of putting the cart before the horse,\" said Ye Erle of Guosheng Metalworking. \"For the allocation of the same stock or industry, the logic of each fund manager may be completely different, and the money he can make in the end is completely different.\"</p><p>Ye Erle believes that we often ask fund managers \"what they bought\" without knowing \"why they bought\", and the latter question may be more important. Recently, one of his research reports \"What Money Does Public Offering of Fund Earn-Series Report on the Evolution History of Fund ALPHA\" has attracted wide attention in the industry and was well received by many institutions. In his report, he analyzes in detail the sources of income for funds and introduces different methods of dividing fund managers' capabilities from traditional ones.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457375bc4d0235878aa7dc3b323dbb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ye Erle, analyst at Guosheng Metalworking</p><p>Last month, our Yuanchuan Research Institute had a dialogue with Ye Erle, an analyst of Guosheng Metalworking, and had a series of discussions on what money Public Offering of Fund made. I hope that through this conversation, we can bring new inspiration to investors about \"buying funds\".</p><p>Here are some views of Ye Erle on what to buy funds, what abilities fund managers have, and how to build fund portfolios.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafe4d249052d6040ae3bf665fe6edad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When many people buy funds, they will ask, \"Can this fund still be bought after it has risen so much?\" Ye Erle gave an answer: Buying funds is different from buying stocks, and stocks should not be chased higher.<b>But funds can \"chase high\" under certain circumstances.</b>Generally speaking, Ye Erle listed three differences between funds and stocks, which are reflected in pricing, valuation and risk diversification.</p><p>The pricing of stocks is the result of expected exchange and expected game by people according to market public data,<b>And the pricing of the fund is determined by the fund manager alone.</b>If the stock wants to rise, more and more people are persuaded to buy by a certain narrative or logic. If the fund wants to rise, the fund manager needs to have the ability to perceive such logic in advance, buy the stock in advance, and sell it when everyone buys it.</p><p>Stocks have a clear valuation, and funds have no valuation problems in the sense of net worth. If the stock rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise. However, the future performance of the fund is not necessarily poor if it rises well, nor is it necessarily good if it performs poorly before. Buying funds has a highly extrapolated indicator called ALPHA medium and long-term momentum, which means<b>The essence of a good past and a good future is the ability of fund managers. Only when a fund manager's ability is stable can he have long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income, and the long-term momentum in a certain subdivision income also proves that the fund is stable in this kind of ability.</b></p><p>Stock has the characteristic risk at the company level, which can be controlled by decentralized holding. Fund is a combination of stocks, and the risk in this aspect is already small, so its risk control can't only rely on simple decentralization. For example, buying a bunch of funds that are partial to group stocks, although a single fund may account for a small proportion, the risk of combining them in the \"group factor\" is very high. Once the group collapses, the whole fund portfolio has great pullback/retracement risks, so it may be better to pick a fund in the large market, mid-cap and small cap, and the risk is more dispersed. So,<b>The risk of the fund needs to penetrate into the underlying style to spread.</b></p><p>So what is the nature of a fund?</p><p>Ye Erle believes that the fund is unchanged<b>The essence is that fund managers include so-called circles of competence such as personality, investment system, information sources and investment patterns.</b>After years of evolution, it has been difficult for fund managers to divide them by simple investment styles such as \"big and small\", \"value growth\" and \"industry theme\". Such division has weak stability, and it is necessary to further attribute the fund income, so as to summarize the stock selection logic of fund managers and divide the real ability of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7147ee6f0c9e846a286b58749c009cb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What kind of money does Public Offering of Fund make?</p><p>After attributing the income of Public Offering of Fund in the report, Ye Erle concluded that the fund income includes money that fund managers can't make stably, money that they will inevitably lose, and money that can be made stably.</p><p>First, the money the fund makes in terms of market capitalization and valuation is volatile. Only two waves of money have been earned in market value, one is small market value money in 14~16 years, and the other is large market value money from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. It is difficult to grasp the market value money. In terms of valuation, Public Offering of Fund prefers high-valuation stocks, which brought negative returns 19 years ago, followed by positive returns, and the money earned at the valuation level is not stable.</p><p>Furthermore, Public Offering of Fund prefers high volatility and high liquidity stocks, which makes the fund lose money for a long time. High volatility is when stocks have risen and fallen sharply in the past, which can cause losses on trading. However, Public Offering of Fund is subject to the attributes of large volume and public offering, so it must buy high liquidity tickets. High liquidity corresponds to high pricing efficiency, and the duration of fast logical money on these stocks is getting shorter and shorter in recent years.<b>It is difficult for public offering to do high-frequency trading, and it is difficult to earn such fast and logical money, so it is basically transferred to private high-frequency traders.</b></p><p>Therefore, whether it is market value, valuation money, or high volatility and liquidity money, it is not something that most fund managers can stably grasp. Ye Erle believes that,<b>When buying a fund, you should pay more attention to the fund manager's ability to make money steadily.</b></p><p>Then<b>Public offering can only make slow money when it can't make fast money.</b>Slow logic money is reflected in two styles of benefits:<b>Momentum and growth.</b>The so-called momentum means that only when a logic is slowly fermented can it finally make the stock price rise steadily in the past 12 months. This feature of steady rise is called momentum by Ye Erle. Growth means that the company has growth, and the verification of growth takes time and thus depends on slow logic.</p><p>Regarding earning money from growth logic, Ye Erle summarized three advantages: (1) The logic of growth takes time to verify, and it can't react fully in the short term, leaving fund managers with enough time; (2) The logic of growth will be realized in the short term, that is, it can be verified in stages according to the quarterly report. Each verification can realize some excess returns, so that the stock can continue to rise; (3) Compared with value logic, the logic of growth is strongly verifiable, because the return of valuation depends on many external macro or market factors, and the logic of growth, such as the judgment of the company's five-year growth rate, must have a fact in the next five years to verify whether the words five years ago are correct or not.</p><p>Ye Erle believes that,<b>Public Offering of Fund is most important to predict the company's performance and earn money from growth logic.</b>At present, public offerings are mainly based on short-term performance appraisal, and growth is more cost-effective than value: it may take 1 to 3 years for the return of value to earn excess returns, and the time is highly uncertain, while growth stocks can be logically realized every quarter.</p><p>From a strategic perspective, Ye Erle introduced another factor for the fund to make money at the company level in addition to performance growth-the popularity of analysts. Analyst heat means that fund managers usually pay close attention to analysts' recommendations, which are translated into their own investment logic.<b>Compared with the advantage of the public's information source, which is also the reason why Public Offering of Fund makes money for a long time, fund managers have faster channels to receive information.</b></p><p>Generally speaking, Public Offering of Funds in<b>Momentum, Growth, Analyst Heat</b>These factors are long-term profitable, which is also the ability of fund managers. However, the style income of market value and valuation, and the trading income of high volatility and high liquidity are beyond the grasp of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cf5bac55700f0cdf8740d80785377cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After understanding the source of fund income, how should we operate when dividing fund managers' ability labels and constructing fund portfolios?</p><p>Ye Erle gives us an example of how to analyze a fund. Taking a fund that performed better this year as an example, he quantitatively attributed the income of this fund, thus summarizing the ability label of fund managers.</p><p>First of all, Ye Erle completely decomposes the fund's income into four sources of income. The fund's performance in \"strategic income\" is average, and its contribution in \"dynamic income\" is greater, which means that the fund manager's overall stock selection ability is average, but the ability to do bands is strong. The fund also contributes greatly to \"industry income\", which means that it has chosen the industry well. Accordingly, fund managers can be labeled: dynamic profitability and industry allocation ability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96be149643d87dd279b716450ccb6797\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then analyze the \"style income\" of the fund. Since the fund manager changed in 2020, the style of the fund has been switched to small and medium-sized market capitalization, high momentum, high volatility, high valuation, high growth, and the style is stable. It is found that the fund manager likes to buy small tickets and popular sectors. From this, he is labeled: small and medium-sized market capitalization, hot sector investment, and stable historical style.</p><p>Observe the characteristics of industry income again: the concentration of positions is high, nearly 50% of the positions are bought in medicine, and nearly 40% of the positions are bought in machinery. Once you are optimistic about the industry, the bets are heavier; In terms of industry switching, it has a strong acuity for the cycle. In the second quarter of last year, it switched to machinery and chemicals, and the market as a whole paid close attention to these two industries in the fourth quarter. Accordingly, you can label: industry concentration.</p><p>Finally, it was observed that the fund's low exposure to analysts' heat factor in the second quarter of last year meant that he was earlier than analysts' expectations, and his later operation was contrary to analysts' recommendations. The more analysts recommended, the more he sold, which indicated that he was sensitive to left/information changes.</p><p>Accordingly, Ye Erle concluded that the fund manager showed<b>Strong dynamic investment ability and small and medium market capitalization investment style.</b>It can quickly process market information, decisively and centrally adjust positions at the critical points on the left and right sides, carry out effective meso-industry allocation and dynamic operation of individual stocks, invest in sectors with popular but small and medium-sized market value, and avoid the crowded Big White Horse sector at that time.</p><p>After analyzing such a fund manager, Ye Erle believes that it is possible to find out all similar fund managers and build a combination with the \"personality\" of this fund manager as the goal.</p><p>For example, build a portfolio of fund managers with strong dynamic profitability, or transfer out a certain type of fund managers with strong stock selection ability and strong industry allocation ability, and continue to track and analyze what kind of market this portfolio is suitable for.<b>When you need what characteristics of fund managers, Guosheng Metalworking can quantify them from the portfolio of fund managers.</b></p><p>Guosheng Metalworking has built a fund portfolio with long-term tracking on Wind: Guosheng Base Selection Strategy, which has performed very well in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a439a13ff398b1ae2bd7eae1b60978ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb201d1d3189ee8ec2a861a447ce715c\" tg-width=\"388\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Source: wind)</p><p>This method of dividing the ability of fund managers is an important contribution of Ye Erle's research report. He re-divided the dimension of fund managers into various abilities and investment logic, which is more stable than the previous division of fund managers by industry and simple style.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0df7a1b499d59e3ea2351cf743665be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For ordinary investors, when buying funds, they should also pay more attention to the various abilities of fund managers. Our WeChat official account \"Yuanchuan Investment Review\" often updates the research and interviews of some fund managers, which can be used as a window for everyone to understand the competence circle of fund managers.</p><p>Through continuous learning, you will know which fund managers are good at stock trading, which are good at stock selection, and which industries have strong allocation ability, so as to choose funds that meet our preference types.</p><p>For the ability that fund managers can't grasp, such as the ability of market value, we can build a portfolio by matching funds with different market styles (such as large cap and small cap) to diversify fund risks.</p><p>However, when building a fund portfolio, everyone's expected return and risk appetite are different. It is the most important thing to know yourself and allocate funds according to your own needs.</p><p>Finally, Ye Erle gives ordinary Christians<b>Some suggestions:</b></p><p>1. Don't blindly follow the trend to buy Alipay homepage recommended funds. You need to be cautious when everyone is buying.</p><p>2. Don't expect funds with a scale of over 5 billion to bring strong excess returns outside the style industry. Guosheng Metalworking has done a test on the fund scale. On average, the alpha of the fund is the strongest between 500 and 2 billion yuan in management scale. Once the scale of fund manager management becomes particularly large, the alpha will probably fail.</p><p>3. In the absence of obvious judgment ability, Christians suggest fixed investment to diversify costs and reduce the sensitivity of winning rate.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/am8U1F6q6VGz2YRds9RHEA\">远川投资评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/am8U1F6q6VGz2YRds9RHEA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161895834","content_text":"有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲动，于是去寻找一只新能源主题基金，准备买入。\n“部分投资者买基金是先自己看好一些板块，比如消费军工之类的，然后再在市场中去找与自己想法持仓最像的基金经理，然后去买它，这有点本末倒置了”国盛金工的叶尔乐说，“对同一个股或行业的配置，每个基金经理的逻辑可能完全不一样，最终能赚到的钱也完全不一样”。\n叶尔乐认为，我们常常会问基金经理“买了什么”而不知道“为什么买”，而后一个问题可能更为重要。最近，他的一篇研究报告《公募基金究竟赚的什么钱—基金ALPHA进化史系列报告》引起了业内广泛关注，受到多家机构的一致好评。他在报告中详细分析了基金的收益来源，并介绍了不同于传统的划分基金经理能力的方法。\n\n国盛金工分析师 叶尔乐\n上个月，我们远川研究所对话了国盛金工分析师叶尔乐，对公募基金究竟赚的是什么钱进行了一系列的探讨，希望通过这次交谈，能够就“买基金”这件事给投资者们带来新的启发。\n以下，是叶尔乐对买基金买的是什么、基金经理具备哪些能力、怎么去构建基金组合等问题的一些看法。\n\n很多人买基金时，会问到“这个基金涨这么多还能买吗？”叶尔乐给出了回答：买基金和买股票不一样，股票不宜追高，但基金在某种情况下是可以“追高”的。总体来说，叶尔乐列举了基金与股票的三个区别，分别体现在定价、估值、风险分散方式上。\n股票的定价是由众人根据市场公开数据进行预期交换、预期博弈得到的结果，而基金的定价是由基金经理一个人决定的。股票要涨，是越来越多的人被某一叙事或逻辑说服而买入，基金要涨，是需要基金经理有提前感知到这样逻辑的能力，提前众人买入股票，并在众人买进来时卖掉。\n股票有明确的估值，基金没有净值意义上的估值问题。股票涨多了会跌，跌多了会涨，而基金并非涨得好的未来表现一定差，也不是以前表现差的未来一定就表现好。买基金有个外推性很强的指标，叫ALPHA中长期动量，意思是过去好的未来好，其本质就是基金经理的能力。只有基金经理某一块能力是稳定的，才能在某一细分收益上有长期动量，而某一细分收益上的长期动量也反证了基金在这类能力上是稳定的。\n股票具有公司层面的特质风险，能通过分散持有来控制，基金是股票的组合，这方面风险已经较小，其风险的控制不能仅靠简单的分散。比如买一堆偏抱团股的基金，虽然可能单个基金占比很小，但组合在“抱团因子”上的风险则非常高，一旦抱团瓦解，整个基金组合都有很大回撤风险，那这样可能还不如大盘中盘小盘各挑一个基金，风险更分散。所以，基金的风险需要穿透到底层风格来分散。\n那么基金的本质是什么呢？\n叶尔乐认为，基金不变的本质是基金经理包括性格、投资体系、信息来源以及投资模式等所谓的能力圈。经过多年进化，基金经理已经很难用“大小盘”、“价值成长”、“行业主题”等简单投资风格去划分，这样的划分稳定性较弱，需要进一步对基金收益进行归因，从而归纳出基金经理的选股逻辑，划分出基金经理的真正能力。\n\n公募基金究竟赚哪些钱？\n叶尔乐在报告中对公募基金的收益进行归因后得出，基金收益中有基金经理不能稳定赚到的钱、不可避免要亏掉的钱、以及能够稳定赚到的钱。\n首先，基金在市值和估值方面赚的钱是不稳定的。市值上只赚过两波钱，一波是14~16年小市值的钱，一波是去年底到今年初的大市值的钱，市值的钱很难把握。在估值上，公募基金偏好高估值股票，这在19年之前带来的是负收益，之后是正收益，估值层面赚的钱也不是稳定的。\n再者，公募基金偏好高波动性和高流动性股票，这使得基金长期亏钱。高波动性是指股票在过去大涨大跌，这会引起交易上的损失。而公募基金受制于大体量和公开募集的属性，必须买高流动性票，高流动性对应高定价效率，快逻辑的钱在这些股票上持续时间近年在越来越短，公募难以做高频交易，很难赚到这种快逻辑的钱，基本将其让渡给私募高频交易者。\n因此，无论是市值、估值的钱，或是高波动性、高流动性的钱，都不是大部分基金经理能够稳定把握的。叶尔乐认为，买基金时更应该关注的是基金经理稳定赚钱的能力。\n那么公募在不能赚快钱的情况下，只能赚慢钱。慢逻辑的钱体现在两种风格收益上：动量和成长。所谓动量，是指一个逻辑只有是慢慢发酵的，最终才可能使股价在过去12个月稳定上涨，这种稳稳上涨的特征叶尔乐称之为动量。而成长就是公司具有成长性，成长性的验证需要时间从而也靠慢逻辑。\n关于赚成长逻辑的钱，叶尔乐总结了三个优点：（1）成长的逻辑需要时间验证，无法在短期反应充分，留给基金经理足够的时间；（2）成长的逻辑短期会有兑现，即可根据季报阶段性验证，每次验证能兑现部分超额收益，使股票连续上涨；（3）成长的逻辑相比价值逻辑是强可验证的，因为估值的回归依赖很多外部的宏观或市场因素，而成长逻辑比如对公司5年增速的判断，那么在未来5年一定存在一个事实验证5年前的话对与否。\n叶尔乐认为，公募基金最主要是预测公司业绩，赚成长逻辑的钱。因为目前公募多以短期业绩考核为主，成长比价值更具有性价比：价值回归可能要等1到3年才赚到超额收益，时间高度不确定，而成长股每个季度都能有逻辑兑现。\n从策略视角，叶尔乐介绍了除业绩增长外，基金在公司层面长期赚钱的另一个因子—分析师热度。分析师热度是指基金经理通常会密切关注分析师的推荐，从而转化为自己的投资逻辑。相比于公众的信息来源优势也是公募基金长期赚钱的原因，基金经理拥有更快接收信息的渠道。\n总的来说，公募基金在动量、成长、分析师热度这些因子上是长期赚钱的，也是基金经理的能力所在，而市值和估值这种风格类收益，以及高波动性高流动性这种交易类收益则是基金经理无法把握的。\n\n在了解了基金收益来源之后，具体到基金经理能力标签的划分、基金组合的构建时又该如何操作呢？\n叶尔乐通过举例来告诉我们如何去分析一只基金。他以今年表现较好的一只基金为例，对这只基金的收益做了量化归因，从而归纳出了基金经理所具备的能力标签。\n首先叶尔乐将基金收益完全分解成四大收益来源，该基金在“策略收益”收益上表现一般，“动态收益”上贡献较大，这意味着基金经理总体选股能力一般，但做波段能力较强。该基金还在“行业收益”上贡献较大，意味着它行业选得好。据此，可以给基金经理贴上标签：动态收益能力、行业配置能力。\n\n接着分析基金的“风格收益”，该基金自2020年换基金经理后，风格切换为中小市值、高动量、高波动性、高估值、高成长，且风格稳健，发现该基金经理喜欢买小票、买热门板块。由此给他贴上标签：中小市值、热门板块投资、历史风格稳定。\n再观察行业收益的特征：持仓集中度较高，医药买了将近50%的仓位，机械买了近40%，一旦看好行业，下注比较重；行业切换上，对周期敏锐度强，在去年二季度大笔切换到机械和化工上，而市场整体高度关注这两个行业是在四季度。据此，可贴标签：行业集中。\n最后，观察到该基金去年二季度在分析师热度因子上暴露较低，意味着他比分析师预期更早，并且他的后期操作与分析师推荐是相逆的，分析师越推荐的他越卖，说明他：左侧/信息变化敏感。\n据此，叶尔乐得出结论：该基金经理在2020.01-2021.03管理这只基金期间表现出了较强的动态投资能力和中小市值投资风格。其能够快速处理市场信息，在左侧右侧临界点果决且集中的调整仓位，进行有效的中观行业配置和个股动态操作，投资较为热门但市值偏中小的板块，避免了当时拥挤的大白马板块。\n分析了这样一位基金经理后，叶尔乐认为，可以以这个基金经理的“个性”为目标，把同类的基金经理都找出来，构建一个组合。\n比如构建一个同样都是动态收益能力较强的基金经理的组合，或者把同样都是选股能力强的、同样都是行业配置能力强的某一类基金经理调出来，继续跟踪，分析这个组合适应什么样的市场。当你需要什么特征的基金经理，国盛金工可以通过量化的方式，将其从基金经理的组合中筛选出来。\n国盛金工在Wind上构建有长期跟踪的基金组合：国盛选基策略，该组合这两年收益表现十分不错。\n\n(数据来源：wind)\n\n(数据来源：wind)\n这种划分基金经理能力的方法，是叶尔乐这篇研报的重要贡献。他将基金经理的维度做了一个重新的划分，划分为各种各样的能力和投资逻辑，相比以往按行业、按简单风格来划分基金经理，这种方式更为稳定。\n\n对于普通投资者来说，在买基金时也应该更多地关注基金经理所具备的各种能力。我们的公众号“远川投资评论”经常会更新一些基金经理的研究和访谈，可以作为大家了解基金经理能力圈的一个窗口。\n通过不断学习，你就会知道哪些基金经理擅长股票交易，哪些擅长选股，还有哪些行业配置能力较强，从而去选择符合我们偏好类型的基金。\n对于基金经理把握不了的能力，比如市值上的能力，我们可以通过搭配不同市场风格（比如大盘小盘）的基金来构建组合从而分散基金风险。\n不过在构建基金组合时，每个人的预期收益和风险偏好不一样，了解自己，根据自己的需求去配置基金才是最重要的。\n最后，叶尔乐对普通基民给出了一些建议：\n1. 切勿盲目跟风购买支付宝首页推荐基金，当所有人都在买时需要谨慎。\n2. 不要期待规模超50亿的基金能带来很强的风格行业以外超额收益。国盛金工对基金规模做过一个测试，基金的阿尔法平均来看在管理规模5~20亿之间最强，一旦基金经理管理的规模变的特别大，阿尔法大概率会有所衰竭。\n3. 基民在没有明显判断能力的情况下，建议定投分散成本，降低胜率敏感性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172603557,"gmtCreate":1626956255279,"gmtModify":1703481274774,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580972018907173","authorIdStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172603557","repostId":"1149284740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176911235,"gmtCreate":1626853775827,"gmtModify":1703479315085,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580972018907173","authorIdStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176911235","repostId":"1195538044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195538044","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626852370,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195538044?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 15:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Volvo Cars to acquire Geely Holdings'stake in Chinese joint venture","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195538044","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"沃尔沃汽车已经与母公司吉利控股达成协议，将收购吉利控股所持两家公司在华合资企业的股权，目的是全面拥有其在中国的汽车制造厂和销售业务。\n根据公告，尽管两家合资公司已经纳入沃尔沃汽车的财务报表，但在交易完","content":"<p>Volvo Cars has reached an agreement with parent company Geely Holding to acquire Geely's equity interest in the joint venture between the two companies in China, with the aim of fully owning its automobile manufacturing and sales operations in China.</p><p>According to the announcement, although the two joint ventures have been included in Volvo Car's financial statements, Volvo Car's share of net profit and equity will increase after the transaction is completed. The transaction will be completed in two steps, starting with the removal of joint venture requirements for vehicle manufacturing in China in 2022, and is expected to be officially completed in 2023. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and financial details will not be disclosed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Volvo Cars to acquire Geely Holdings'stake in Chinese joint venture</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVolvo Cars to acquire Geely Holdings'stake in Chinese joint venture\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 15:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Volvo Cars has reached an agreement with parent company Geely Holding to acquire Geely's equity interest in the joint venture between the two companies in China, with the aim of fully owning its automobile manufacturing and sales operations in China.</p><p>According to the announcement, although the two joint ventures have been included in Volvo Car's financial statements, Volvo Car's share of net profit and equity will increase after the transaction is completed. The transaction will be completed in two steps, starting with the removal of joint venture requirements for vehicle manufacturing in China in 2022, and is expected to be officially completed in 2023. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and financial details will not be disclosed.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/895c78542e623e85e47d4f65b83d0817","relate_stocks":{"00175":"吉利汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195538044","content_text":"沃尔沃汽车已经与母公司吉利控股达成协议，将收购吉利控股所持两家公司在华合资企业的股权，目的是全面拥有其在中国的汽车制造厂和销售业务。\n根据公告，尽管两家合资公司已经纳入沃尔沃汽车的财务报表，但在交易完成后，沃尔沃汽车在净利润和股权中所占比例将会增加。交易将分两步完成，从2022年中国取消汽车制造合资要求开始，预计将在2023年正式完成。交易尚待监管部门批准，财务细节不会披露。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00175":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173516090,"gmtCreate":1626669251710,"gmtModify":1703763051685,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580972018907173","authorIdStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173516090","repostId":"1162382593","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173250012,"gmtCreate":1626664082236,"gmtModify":1703762955929,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580972018907173","authorIdStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zan ","listText":"Zan ","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173250012","repostId":"1112014098","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112014098","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"100%全部原创，没有一篇转载。全部都是干货，没有任何广告或者软文。覆盖的主题：金融、投资、商业、经济和时事。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"伍治坚证据主义","id":"69","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e09863206344e0b010e09146f1c4fc"},"pubTimestamp":1626660566,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112014098?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 10:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"How can I get a good return if I can't stick to it for a long time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112014098","media":"伍治坚证据主义","summary":"1964年，美国电影明星伊丽莎白·泰勒和她的第五任丈夫，理查德·伯顿结婚。这段婚姻持续了十年，是泰勒历任丈夫中婚姻时间持续最长的。1974年，在接受媒体采访时，泰勒说道：\n\n 没有任何事情能将我俩分开","content":"<p>In 1964, American movie star Elizabeth Taylor married her fifth husband, Richard Burton. The marriage lasted ten years, the longest of any of Taylor's husbands. In an interview with the media in 1974, Taylor said:</p><p>Nothing can separate us. Our marriage will last at least another ten years. Five days later, Taylor and Burton divorced.</p><p>This example tells us that it is difficult to make long-term long-term plans. Many times, we think we have a long-term plan, which can be planned for 10, 20 years or even beyond, but the reality is likely to be a whole other story.</p><p>\"Patience\", a traditional Chinese virtue, is becoming more and more rare. Many teachers who teach in universities must have a deep understanding of this. In class, it is more difficult than to ascend to the sky to make students concentrate and attend to the class for more than 30 minutes. If their smartphone is confiscated and it is stipulated that they can't use it again until weekends, the other party may fight desperately with you.</p><p>In an experiment conducted by the University of Virginia and Harvard University (Roach, 2016), the professor asked the subjects to sit alone in an empty room and think quietly. They were told that they needed to sit still in a chair for 15 minutes and do nothing. If they really can't sit down, they can choose to end this \"cruel torture\" by shocking themselves. As a result, about two-thirds of men and one-quarter of women couldn't stand the 15 minutes of \"doing nothing\" and chose to end this \"long\" 15 minutes early by shocking themselves.</p><p>Such \"impatient\" behavior habits have also greatly affected the investment behavior of investors in the financial market.</p><p>Statistical research by Orcam Financial Group shows that in 1995, the average time for American stockholders to hold stocks was more than three months. By 2010, the average length of time shareholders held stocks dropped to less than one month. Fast forward to 2020, when the Novel Coronavirus broke out, many people were locked at home and doing nothing, and joined the army of day trading. As a result, the trading volume of retail investors in the U.S. stock market exceeded that of institutions, becoming the biggest contributor to liquidity in the stock market.</p><p>Retail investors are impatient in their investments, and institutions are not much better. In 2016, State Street launched a questionnaire survey among executives of 400 largest investment institutions in the United States. The statistical results showed that 80% of institutions could not tolerate a fund's poor return for two consecutive years, while as many as 99% of institutions could not tolerate a fund's poor return for three consecutive years. In other words, the investment model of the vast majority of relatively large institutional investors is actually not much different from that of retail investors who are chasing ups and downs. It is nothing more than looking at the return performance of a fund in the past three years: if it is good, buy or increase your holdings, if it is bad, reduce your holdings or redeem them, that's all.</p><p>The problem is that this kind of investment behavior focused on the short term is unlikely to bring investors the expected good returns. Based on the historical research of the U.S. stock market over the past 25 years (Tidmore and Hon, 2020), if you focus on selecting value stocks with relatively low price-to-book ratios, you can obtain a return that exceeds the broader market index by 1.1% per year. If you specifically select those low-volatility stocks, you can get a return that exceeds the broader market index by 1.9% per year. The problem is that these returns are based on long-term returns accumulated over 25 years. And if we carefully analyze how these 25 years have come, we will find that most investors simply cannot persist.</p><p>For example, if we choose the past year, there is a 48% and 52% probability that the value strategy and the low volatility strategy will underperform and lag the broader market index, respectively. If we choose the time span of the past three years, the probability of underperformance of the value strategy and the low volatility strategy is 49% and 47%, respectively. That is to say, for an investment method that can bring excess investment returns in the long run, if we only look at short-term performance returns of 1 to 3 years, then there is almost a half probability that it will not work at any time.</p><p>It is for this reason that even if there are excellent funds that can beat the index in the long run, it is difficult for most investors to buy them, and even if they do, it is difficult to hold them. For example, based on the statistical study of 2,600 public funds in the U.S. market over the past 25 years (Tidmore and Hon, 2020), it was found that for those public funds that beat the benchmark index, more than 70% of the sample, within a certain year in history, The return of its benchmark index is 40% to 60% behind. There are 80% of the sample whose performance is in the worst 25% category of similar funds in a certain five years in history. Most impatient investors, in this case, have the first reaction to sell such funds, so they miss the next rebound, let alone beat the market by buying such funds.</p><p>To truly become a long-term investor and be a friend of time is easier said than done. Charlie Munger said when evaluating Warren Buffett:</p><p>One of his most distinctive features is that he spends a lot of time reading and thinking quietly every day. We have all read stories about kitten fishing since childhood, and we deeply understand that kittens can't catch even a fish because of their lack of patience. Many investors agree with the long-term investment philosophy. But when it comes to practice, it often becomes a short-termist who is eager for quick success and instant benefit. Research shows that there is no investment strategy that can make investors make money every month, every day and every moment. Many investment strategies that can achieve better returns in the long run are full of fluctuations in the short term, and are likely to have poor returns for three consecutive years or even more than five years. Under such an investment reality, it is difficult for an impatient and half-hearted kitten to catch a big fish. Smart investors need to overcome the bad habit of short-term profit-seeking, take a long-term view, and strive to be a big winner in the long term.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How can I get a good return if I can't stick to it for a long time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow can I get a good return if I can't stick to it for a long time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/69\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e09863206344e0b010e09146f1c4fc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">伍治坚证据主义 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-19 10:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In 1964, American movie star Elizabeth Taylor married her fifth husband, Richard Burton. The marriage lasted ten years, the longest of any of Taylor's husbands. In an interview with the media in 1974, Taylor said:</p><p>Nothing can separate us. Our marriage will last at least another ten years. Five days later, Taylor and Burton divorced.</p><p>This example tells us that it is difficult to make long-term long-term plans. Many times, we think we have a long-term plan, which can be planned for 10, 20 years or even beyond, but the reality is likely to be a whole other story.</p><p>\"Patience\", a traditional Chinese virtue, is becoming more and more rare. Many teachers who teach in universities must have a deep understanding of this. In class, it is more difficult than to ascend to the sky to make students concentrate and attend to the class for more than 30 minutes. If their smartphone is confiscated and it is stipulated that they can't use it again until weekends, the other party may fight desperately with you.</p><p>In an experiment conducted by the University of Virginia and Harvard University (Roach, 2016), the professor asked the subjects to sit alone in an empty room and think quietly. They were told that they needed to sit still in a chair for 15 minutes and do nothing. If they really can't sit down, they can choose to end this \"cruel torture\" by shocking themselves. As a result, about two-thirds of men and one-quarter of women couldn't stand the 15 minutes of \"doing nothing\" and chose to end this \"long\" 15 minutes early by shocking themselves.</p><p>Such \"impatient\" behavior habits have also greatly affected the investment behavior of investors in the financial market.</p><p>Statistical research by Orcam Financial Group shows that in 1995, the average time for American stockholders to hold stocks was more than three months. By 2010, the average length of time shareholders held stocks dropped to less than one month. Fast forward to 2020, when the Novel Coronavirus broke out, many people were locked at home and doing nothing, and joined the army of day trading. As a result, the trading volume of retail investors in the U.S. stock market exceeded that of institutions, becoming the biggest contributor to liquidity in the stock market.</p><p>Retail investors are impatient in their investments, and institutions are not much better. In 2016, State Street launched a questionnaire survey among executives of 400 largest investment institutions in the United States. The statistical results showed that 80% of institutions could not tolerate a fund's poor return for two consecutive years, while as many as 99% of institutions could not tolerate a fund's poor return for three consecutive years. In other words, the investment model of the vast majority of relatively large institutional investors is actually not much different from that of retail investors who are chasing ups and downs. It is nothing more than looking at the return performance of a fund in the past three years: if it is good, buy or increase your holdings, if it is bad, reduce your holdings or redeem them, that's all.</p><p>The problem is that this kind of investment behavior focused on the short term is unlikely to bring investors the expected good returns. Based on the historical research of the U.S. stock market over the past 25 years (Tidmore and Hon, 2020), if you focus on selecting value stocks with relatively low price-to-book ratios, you can obtain a return that exceeds the broader market index by 1.1% per year. If you specifically select those low-volatility stocks, you can get a return that exceeds the broader market index by 1.9% per year. The problem is that these returns are based on long-term returns accumulated over 25 years. And if we carefully analyze how these 25 years have come, we will find that most investors simply cannot persist.</p><p>For example, if we choose the past year, there is a 48% and 52% probability that the value strategy and the low volatility strategy will underperform and lag the broader market index, respectively. If we choose the time span of the past three years, the probability of underperformance of the value strategy and the low volatility strategy is 49% and 47%, respectively. That is to say, for an investment method that can bring excess investment returns in the long run, if we only look at short-term performance returns of 1 to 3 years, then there is almost a half probability that it will not work at any time.</p><p>It is for this reason that even if there are excellent funds that can beat the index in the long run, it is difficult for most investors to buy them, and even if they do, it is difficult to hold them. For example, based on the statistical study of 2,600 public funds in the U.S. market over the past 25 years (Tidmore and Hon, 2020), it was found that for those public funds that beat the benchmark index, more than 70% of the sample, within a certain year in history, The return of its benchmark index is 40% to 60% behind. There are 80% of the sample whose performance is in the worst 25% category of similar funds in a certain five years in history. Most impatient investors, in this case, have the first reaction to sell such funds, so they miss the next rebound, let alone beat the market by buying such funds.</p><p>To truly become a long-term investor and be a friend of time is easier said than done. Charlie Munger said when evaluating Warren Buffett:</p><p>One of his most distinctive features is that he spends a lot of time reading and thinking quietly every day. We have all read stories about kitten fishing since childhood, and we deeply understand that kittens can't catch even a fish because of their lack of patience. Many investors agree with the long-term investment philosophy. But when it comes to practice, it often becomes a short-termist who is eager for quick success and instant benefit. Research shows that there is no investment strategy that can make investors make money every month, every day and every moment. Many investment strategies that can achieve better returns in the long run are full of fluctuations in the short term, and are likely to have poor returns for three consecutive years or even more than five years. Under such an investment reality, it is difficult for an impatient and half-hearted kitten to catch a big fish. Smart investors need to overcome the bad habit of short-term profit-seeking, take a long-term view, and strive to be a big winner in the long term.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939332859a8a952a612c5d07d00550df","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112014098","content_text":"1964年，美国电影明星伊丽莎白·泰勒和她的第五任丈夫，理查德·伯顿结婚。这段婚姻持续了十年，是泰勒历任丈夫中婚姻时间持续最长的。1974年，在接受媒体采访时，泰勒说道：\n\n 没有任何事情能将我俩分开。我们的婚姻会至少再维持十年。\n\n5天之后，泰勒和伯顿离婚了。\n这个例子告诉我们，要想做长期的长远打算，是很难的。很多时候，我们自以为有一个长期的打算，可以计划到10年、20年以后甚至更远的将来，然而现实很可能完全是另一回事。\n“耐心”这个传统的中华美德，正在变得越来越稀有。很多在大学教书的老师对此一定深有体会。在课堂里要想让同学们集中精神，心无旁骛的听课超过30分钟，简直比登天还难。如果把他们的智能手机没收，规定要等到双休日才能再使用，那对方可能会和你拼命。\n在美国弗吉尼亚大学和哈佛大学做的一个实验（Roach, 2016）中，教授让实验对象独自坐在一个空房间内安静的思考。他们被告知，需要在椅子上静坐15分钟，什么都不做。如果他们实在坐不下去，则可以选择通过电击自己的方式来结束这“残酷的折磨”。结果，大约有2/3的男士和1/4的女士无法忍受“无所事事”的15分钟，选择用电击自己的方式提前结束这“漫长”的15分钟。\n如此“缺乏耐心”的行为习惯，也极大的影响了广大投资者在金融市场上的投资行为。\nOrcam Financial Group的统计研究显示，在1995年，美国股民平均持有股票的时间为3个多月。而到了2010年，股民平均持有股票的时间长度下降到不到1个月。再快进到2020年，新冠病毒爆发，很多人被锁在家里无所事事，加入了日间交易的大军，导致美国股市中散户的交易量超过机构，成为股市中流动性的最大贡献力量。\n散户在投资中缺乏耐心，机构也好不到哪里去。2016年，道富公司向美国400家规模最大的投资机构的高管发起问卷调查，统计结果显示：80%的机构无法容忍一个基金连续两年回报不佳，而高达99%的机构无法容忍一个基金连续三年回报不佳。也就是说，绝大多数规模比较大的机构投资者，他们的投资模式其实和追涨杀跌的散户基民没啥大差别，无非就是看一个基金过去3年的回报表现：好的话就买入或者增持，差的话就减持或者赎回，仅此而已。\n问题在于，这种专注于短期的投资行为，是不太可能为投资者带来期望中的好回报的。基于美国股市过去25年的历史研究（Tidmore and Hon, 2020）显示，如果专注于挑选市净率比较低的价值股，可以获得超过大盘指数每年1.1%的回报。如果专门挑选那些低波动股票，可以获得超过大盘指数每年1.9%的回报。问题在于，这些回报是基于25年积累下来的长期回报。而如果我们细细分析这25年是怎么过来的，就会发现绝大部分投资者根本无法坚持下来。\n举例来说，如果我们任选过去1年，那么价值策略和低波动策略分别有48%和52%的概率表现不佳，落后大盘指数。如果我们任选过去3年的时间跨度，价值策略和低波动策略表现不佳的概率分别为49%和47%。也就是说，对于一个长期来看能够带来超额投资回报的投资方法，如果我们只看1到3年的短期业绩回报，那么在任何时候，都有差不多一半的概率行不通。\n正是因为这个原因，即使存在那些长期能够战胜指数的优秀基金，大部分投资者也很难买到，即使买到也很难持有。比如基于美国市场过去25年，2600只公募基金的统计研究（Tidmore and Hon, 2020）发现，对于那些战胜基准指数的公募基金来说，有超过70%的样本，在历史上的某一年内，比其基准指数回报落后40%到60%。有80%的样本，在历史上的某一个5年内，其业绩位于同类基金最差的25%类别。绝大部分缺乏耐心的投资者，在这种情况下，第一反应就是把这样的基金卖掉，因此也就错过了接下来的反弹，更别提通过购买这样的基金来战胜市场了。\n要想真正成为长期投资者，做时间的朋友，说起来容易做起来难。查理·芒格在评价沃伦·巴菲特时说过：\n\n 他的一个最与众不同的地方就是每天都花大量的时间看书，并且静静的思考。\n\n我们从小都读过小猫钓鱼的故事，深深明白小猫由于缺乏耐心而连一条鱼都钓不到。很多投资者，都认同长期坚持的投资哲学。但是到了实践操作的时候，却往往变成了急功近利的短期主义者。研究显示，没有什么投资策略，是能够让投资者每月，每天，每时每刻都赚钱的。很多长期来看能够获得更好回报的投资策略，在短期内却充满着波动，很可能连续3年，甚至5年以上回报不佳。在这样的投资现实之下，缺乏耐心、三心二意的小猫，是很难钓到大鱼的。聪明的投资者，需要克服短期逐利的坏习惯，眼光放长远，力争做一个长期的大赢家。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144730289,"gmtCreate":1626313531141,"gmtModify":1703757652665,"author":{"id":"3580972018907173","authorId":"3580972018907173","name":"青天照大街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b3b2e60ed720da92ef4a446dcdaaf4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580972018907173","authorIdStr":"3580972018907173"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zan","listText":"Zan","text":"Zan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144730289","repostId":"1134354713","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134354713","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626313344,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134354713?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 09:42","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Fosun Pharma's AH rose together, COVID-19 vaccine is rumored to have passed expert review","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134354713","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月15日，复星医药港股盘初大涨涨近7%，报61.3港元；复星医药A股涨逾5%，报68.17元。\n据财新，复星医药在股东大会上回复投资人问询时表示，国家药监局对mRNA新冠疫苗“复必泰”的审定工作已经","content":"<p>July 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02196\">Fosun Pharma</a>Hong Kong stocks rose nearly 7% at the beginning of the session to HK $61.3;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>A shares rose more than 5% to 68.17 yuan.</p><p>According to Caixin, Fosun Pharma said in response to investors' inquiries at the shareholders' meeting that the State Food and Drug Administration's approval of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine \"Fubitai\" has basically completed, the expert review has passed, and the administrative examination and approval stage is being stepped up.</p><p>Fosun Pharma and BioNTech have started production preparations in advance. Once the Fubitai vaccine is approved, it can be supplied to China as soon as possible; People familiar with the matter said that in the future, Fubitai is likely to be used as a booster shot in China for free vaccination.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcda9ea7ea213d3473fb919157b59bc5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb875ce2002f9e31d921cfdc9eadf9b4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fosun Pharma's AH rose together, COVID-19 vaccine is rumored to have passed expert review</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFosun Pharma's AH rose together, COVID-19 vaccine is rumored to have passed expert review\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-15 09:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 15,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02196\">Fosun Pharma</a>Hong Kong stocks rose nearly 7% at the beginning of the session to HK $61.3;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>A shares rose more than 5% to 68.17 yuan.</p><p>According to Caixin, Fosun Pharma said in response to investors' inquiries at the shareholders' meeting that the State Food and Drug Administration's approval of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine \"Fubitai\" has basically completed, the expert review has passed, and the administrative examination and approval stage is being stepped up.</p><p>Fosun Pharma and BioNTech have started production preparations in advance. Once the Fubitai vaccine is approved, it can be supplied to China as soon as possible; People familiar with the matter said that in the future, Fubitai is likely to be used as a booster shot in China for free vaccination.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcda9ea7ea213d3473fb919157b59bc5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb875ce2002f9e31d921cfdc9eadf9b4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abbd3fc26184cc69ef95a83e11f6419","relate_stocks":{"150130":"医药A","600196":"复星医药","02196":"复星医药"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134354713","content_text":"7月15日，复星医药港股盘初大涨涨近7%，报61.3港元；复星医药A股涨逾5%，报68.17元。\n据财新，复星医药在股东大会上回复投资人问询时表示，国家药监局对mRNA新冠疫苗“复必泰”的审定工作已经基本完成，专家评审已经通过了，目前正在加紧进行行政审批阶段。\n复星医药已与BioNTech提前启动生产准备工作，复必泰疫苗一旦获批，就能第一时间供应到国内；知情人士称，未来，复必泰在国内很可能会作为加强针使用，免费接种。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"150130":0.9,"600196":0.9,"02196":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}