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hhang

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- hhanghhang
  ·2025-11-26
  $蔚来(NIO)$
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- hhanghhang
  ·2023-01-03
  nice
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- hhanghhang
  ·2022-12-30
  go go go
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- hhanghhang
  ·2022-12-27
  👌
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- hhanghhang
  ·2022-11-22
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  Citi upgraded Hong Kong stocks, and Wall Street collectively called for "Buy China"!
  花旗认为，当前中国国内的一系列政策，应有助于对投资者情绪构成支持。即使其他主要经济体正在急剧放缓，中国也可能依靠内部驱动，实现有吸引力的复苏。华尔街再次将目光聚焦在中国，花旗最近将中国香港股市上调至超
  Citi upgraded Hong Kong stocks, and Wall Street collectively called for "Buy China"!
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- hhanghhang
  ·2022-10-09
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  What are Biden's odds of winning the "midterm elections"?
  为何中期选举如此重要？
  What are Biden's odds of winning the "midterm elections"?
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- hhanghhang
  ·2022-10-09
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  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- hhanghhang
  ·2022-10-09
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  Why has the U.S. labor market been delayed to cool down after the sharp rate hike?
  美国新增就业对于美联储加息的反应具有滞后效应。
  Why has the U.S. labor market been delayed to cool down after the sharp rate hike?
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- hhanghhang
  ·2022-10-09
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  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- hhanghhang
  ·2022-05-28
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  U.S. new energy vehicle stocks rose broadly, Rivian rose nearly 7%
  5月27日，美股新能车股普涨，Rivian、Lordstown Motors涨近7%，特斯拉涨超5%，法拉第未来、Lucid Group涨近4%。
  U.S. new energy vehicle stocks rose broadly, Rivian rose nearly 7%
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11:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Citi upgraded Hong Kong stocks, and Wall Street collectively called for \"Buy China\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285027318","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"花旗认为，当前中国国内的一系列政策，应有助于对投资者情绪构成支持。即使其他主要经济体正在急剧放缓，中国也可能依靠内部驱动，实现有吸引力的复苏。华尔街再次将目光聚焦在中国，花旗最近将中国香港股市上调至超","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Citi believes that the current series of domestic policies in China should help support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China could rely on internal drivers for an attractive recovery.</b>Wall Street has once again set its sights on China, with Citi recently upgrading the Hong Kong stock market to overweight.</p><p>In a note published on Sunday, Nov. 20, Citi strategist Robert Buckland's team argued:</p><p>A series of current domestic policies in China should help stabilize the current decline in Chinese equity earnings per share and support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China could rely on internal drivers for an attractive recovery. In recent weeks, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong, China, has entered a bull market, and the Shanghai Composite Index has also rebounded consecutively after testing 17 years of long-term technical support.</p><p>For other Asian economies, Citi downgraded South Korea to underweight, citing a contraction in earnings; Neutral towards India; Upgraded to Overweight on Malaysia; Downgrade Indonesia to neutral.</p><p>Citi is not the only one that has been bullish on the Chinese market recently.</p><p>Always cautious<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>After raising its price target on Chinese stocks last week, expecting the MSCI China Index to rise 14% by the end of next year, Morgan Stanley said back in mid-October, amid the stock market correction, that a good time had come to buy Chinese stocks.</p><p>Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Reaffirm confidence in China's stock market. In a report, Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight rating on MSCI China Index. It is expected that MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index will return as much as 16% in the next 12 months, and if exchange rate factors are taken into account, their returns will be as high as 19% and 21%. Goldman Sachs also upgraded Hong Kong shares from underweight to equal weight.</p><p>In addition, Hillhouse Capital continues to be optimistic about Chinese assets, and its fund management institution HHLR Advisors, which specializes in secondary investment, in the third quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary creatures</a>Nine Chinese stocks have carried out additional positions such as increasing holdings and new purchases; Continue to be optimistic about new energy, and add positions to Daqo New Energy and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">JinkoSolar</a>。</p><p>Allianz Investments All China Equity<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUND\">Fund Fund</a>Manager Anthony Wong said earlier that the A-share market is best placed to seize (outperform) opportunities because it has a large number of new economy businesses and is relatively immune to external volatility.</p><p>The performance of the market did not disappoint the big Wall Street banks. This month, the MSCI China Index jumped nearly 24%, on track for its best monthly performance since 1999. Hong Kong<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Enterprises</a>Index and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index are also in technical bull market territory.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Citi upgraded Hong Kong stocks, and Wall Street collectively called for \"Buy China\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCiti upgraded Hong Kong stocks, and Wall Street collectively called for \"Buy China\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-22 11:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Citi believes that the current series of domestic policies in China should help support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China could rely on internal drivers for an attractive recovery.</b>Wall Street has once again set its sights on China, with Citi recently upgrading the Hong Kong stock market to overweight.</p><p>In a note published on Sunday, Nov. 20, Citi strategist Robert Buckland's team argued:</p><p>A series of current domestic policies in China should help stabilize the current decline in Chinese equity earnings per share and support investor sentiment. Even if other major economies are slowing sharply, China could rely on internal drivers for an attractive recovery. In recent weeks, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong, China, has entered a bull market, and the Shanghai Composite Index has also rebounded consecutively after testing 17 years of long-term technical support.</p><p>For other Asian economies, Citi downgraded South Korea to underweight, citing a contraction in earnings; Neutral towards India; Upgraded to Overweight on Malaysia; Downgrade Indonesia to neutral.</p><p>Citi is not the only one that has been bullish on the Chinese market recently.</p><p>Always cautious<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>After raising its price target on Chinese stocks last week, expecting the MSCI China Index to rise 14% by the end of next year, Morgan Stanley said back in mid-October, amid the stock market correction, that a good time had come to buy Chinese stocks.</p><p>Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Reaffirm confidence in China's stock market. In a report, Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight rating on MSCI China Index. It is expected that MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index will return as much as 16% in the next 12 months, and if exchange rate factors are taken into account, their returns will be as high as 19% and 21%. Goldman Sachs also upgraded Hong Kong shares from underweight to equal weight.</p><p>In addition, Hillhouse Capital continues to be optimistic about Chinese assets, and its fund management institution HHLR Advisors, which specializes in secondary investment, in the third quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary creatures</a>Nine Chinese stocks have carried out additional positions such as increasing holdings and new purchases; Continue to be optimistic about new energy, and add positions to Daqo New Energy and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">JinkoSolar</a>。</p><p>Allianz Investments All China Equity<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUND\">Fund Fund</a>Manager Anthony Wong said earlier that the A-share market is best placed to seize (outperform) opportunities because it has a large number of new economy businesses and is relatively immune to external volatility.</p><p>The performance of the market did not disappoint the big Wall Street banks. This month, the MSCI China Index jumped nearly 24%, on track for its best monthly performance since 1999. Hong Kong<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Enterprises</a>Index and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index are also in technical bull market territory.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3675561\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"C":"花旗"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3675561","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285027318","content_text":"花旗认为，当前中国国内的一系列政策，应有助于对投资者情绪构成支持。即使其他主要经济体正在急剧放缓，中国也可能依靠内部驱动，实现有吸引力的复苏。华尔街再次将目光聚焦在中国，花旗最近将中国香港股市上调至超配。在11月20日周日发表的一份报告中，花旗策略分析师Robert Buckland团队认为：当前中国国内的一系列政策，应有助于稳住当前中国股票每股收益的下滑，对投资者情绪构成支持。即使其他主要经济体正在急剧放缓，中国也可能依靠内部驱动，实现有吸引力的复苏。最近几周，中国香港的恒生指数已经进入牛市，上证综指也在测试17年来的长期技术支撑位后，连续反弹。对于其他亚洲经济体，花旗将韩国的评级下调至减持，理由是韩国的收益会出现收缩；对印度保持中性；对马来西亚上调至增持；将印度尼西亚下调至中性。最近看涨中国市场的，不只是花旗。一向谨慎的摩根士丹利上周上调了对中国股市的目标价，预计MSCI中国指数到明年年底将上涨14%，大摩早在10月中旬股市回调之际表示，买入中国股票的好时机已到。本月早些时候，高盛重申对中国股市的信心。在一份报告中，高盛维持对MSCI中国指数的超配评级，预计MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数在未来12个月回报率高达16%，若计入汇率因素，其回报更是高达19%和21%。高盛还将中国香港股票从低配上调至平配。此外，高瓴资本继续看好中国资产，旗下专攻二级投资的基金管理机构HHLR Advisors三季度对拼多多、传奇生物等9只中概股进行了增持、新进买入等加仓操作；继续看好新能源，加仓大全新能源与晶科能源。安联投资All China Equity Fund基金经理Anthony Wong早些时候表示，A股市场最适合抓住（跑赢大盘）机会，因为该市场有大量新经济企业，而且相对不受外部波动的影响。市场的表现也没有令华尔街大行失望。本月，MSCI中国指数大幅上涨近24%，有望创下1999年以来最佳月度表现。香港恒生中国企业指数和纳斯达克金龙中国指数也处于技术性牛市区域。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"C":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914652037,"gmtCreate":1665278436629,"gmtModify":1676537580478,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580606618017089","idStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914652037","repostId":"2273357388","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273357388","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665200770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273357388?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-08 11:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What are Biden's odds of winning the \"midterm elections\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273357388","media":"格隆汇","summary":"为何中期选举如此重要？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. midterm primaries have concluded, and the final election will open in early November. The midterm elections will determine the party affiliation of the Senate and House of Representatives, thus affecting the direction and effect of Biden's future administration. So, what do you choose in the midterm elections? Why are midterm elections so important? Will Biden Lose the House? This report analyzes this.</p><p><h3>1. What are the important elections in the United States?</h3>Before we talk about the midterm elections,<b>First of all, we need to form a basic understanding of the American political system.</b></p><p><b>The political basis of the \"separation of powers\".</b>The United States Constitution divides the functions and powers of the federal government into three parts, making each party check and balance and independent of each other. Among them, the legislative power is in the hands of Congress, which is divided into two parts: the Senate and the House of Representatives. Its duties, powers and the number of members are very different. Executive power is handed over to the President and the White House. Judicial power lies in the Supreme Court, which is determined by nine supreme justices serving for life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda36251c8cb459ed05bc0e479d422f4\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Executive power is exercised by the President of the United States and members of the Cabinet</b>。 While the U.S.<b>Presidential elections</b>，<b>Commonly known as general election</b>It is also an extremely hot international event once every four years. The presidential election is based on the Electoral College system, which is unique to the United States.<b>First of all,</b>The electors of each state are elected by the votes of the voters of that state.<b>Then,</b>The electors with the most votes in the state then vote for the presidential candidate on behalf of voters in the entire state.<b>in the end</b>, the candidate who obtains more than 270 votes out of 538 electoral votes will win. Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that the electors of each state hold the same number of votes as the number of members of Congress in that state, while the number of House seats is determined by the total population of the state, so the more populous states also have a larger number of votes. Generally speaking, the more electoral votes a president receives, the more voters in total support of him. However, there have been five special cases in history, that is, the total number of voters of the winning president lags behind, but the electoral votes lead. For example, in 2016, Trump fell behind nearly 3 million voters, but won the general election with a large lead of 77 electoral votes (14% of the total votes).</p><p><b>Cabinet members are not involved in elections</b>, appointed by and accountable to the President. Usually, the successor president proposes Cabinet candidates to the Senate before taking the oath of office. More than 20 Cabinet positions, such as Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State, require opinions from relevant Senate committees, and then the Senate votes, with more than half of the support before they can pass.</p><p><b>In addition to electing a cabinet, the president has the following five main powers. First,</b>Elect federal positions such as the top judge, members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, etc.<b>Second,</b>Pass or veto bills passed by Congress as the last hurdle in the legislative process.<b>Third,</b>The right to sign executive orders, i.e. to legislate indirectly by issuing executive orders to federal agencies.<b>Fourth,</b>The power of pardon, that is, the president can grant pardons to some people who have violated federal law.<b>Fifth,</b>Military command, the president, as the supreme commander of the U.S. military, can ask Congress to exercise the power to declare war, and can also command the U.S. military in wartime and non-wartime.<b>in addition</b>The president can engage in diplomacy, declare national emergencies, and sign international treaties with the approval of the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efc6092dbae8224d63a5d5d59f1642fc\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Legislative power is exercised by Congress</b>。 Congress involves<b>Senator</b>And<b>Rep.</b>The elections. At the same time as each general election, the United States Congress is also in the process of changing electorate. But unlike the presidential election,<b>Congressional elections are not held only in general election years, but every even-numbered year. Midterm elections</b>That is, two years after the president takes office, the process of Congress changing again during the presidential term. Members of the House are served for a two-year term, that is, every two years the entire House needs to be re-elected. The term of the Senate is six years, but the 100 members are divided into three staggered batches (33, 33, and 34, respectively), so that 1/3 of the Senate is changed every two years. In total, there are about 468 congressional seats awaiting new owners in each general and midterm election.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cec6ac0276cbc86e3f215aaf0f35540\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Members of Parliament are decided by popular vote.</b>In<b>Electoral system</b>Congressional elections do not use the electoral system, but are decided directly by popular vote. Among them, Senators are elected by residents throughout the state, while House of Representatives are elected only by residents of that jurisdiction themselves. Congress<b>Election Process</b>Usually divided into<b>Three stages</b>: Primary, runoff, final.<b>Firstly</b>Primary elections are an election process within each party. Each party needs to select one party candidate for each Congressional seat vote.<b>Secondly</b>For most states in the United States, if no candidate gets 50% of the vote in the primary, the top two candidates with the most votes will compete in the next round, i.e.<b>runoff election</b>。<b>in the end</b>The party candidate who wins the primary and runoff elections will travel to Washington to face off against candidates from other parties, and this is the final election, the final stage of the general election to Congress.</p><p>Because each state has a different election schedule, the primary and runoff elections will last about half a year, usually between March and September of an election year, while the final election usually takes place on the second Tuesday in November of that year. This year's final election will be held on November 8th, and the final results will be announced by each state in November and December. The newly elected 118th Congressman will be scheduled to take office on January 3, 2023. The state primary elections are now over, meaning the intra-party contest is over, with more than 400 bipartisan primary winners facing off in Washington, D.C. in three months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/376f5d1fdca5627a30e5c7153b86373d\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judicial power is exercised by the Chancellor.</b>Supreme Court justices are nominated by the President of the United States and are subject to a resolution of more than half the vote of the Senate. on account of<b>The term of office of the Chancellor is for life</b>A vacancy for presidential nomination will only arise if the incumbent justice dies, voluntarily retires, or is removed. Justice Ketanji Jackson's appointment process is a more typical judicial change process:<b>Firstly</b>Biden nominated Jackson on Feb. 25 this year to replace Justice Stephen Breyer, who voluntarily retired in January.<b>subsequently</b>, the Senate voted on Jackson on April 7 and passed 53-47.<b>in the end</b>Jackson was sworn in on June 30 this year. There are currently no vacant justices awaiting renewal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885b7e4a220c570c9f7d7f433bff57c4\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Justices interpret the Constitution</b>。 The Supreme Court's decision is based on the interpretation of the Constitution by the nine justices, so it is the final decision of the entire judicial system, and can only be overturned by amending the Constitution by Congress. Therefore, under the case law system of the United States, Supreme Court justices' decisions are a<b>Indirect \"legislative\" behavior</b>。 Combined with such supreme power, lifetime tenure, and subjectivity in the interpretation of the Constitution, the political leanings of the justices have a crucial role in American society as a whole. While a justice's political partisan message is non-public, its political leanings can be clearly reflected by its decisions and statements. The current Supreme Court consists of six Republican-leaning and three Democratic-leaning justices. Under such a long-term conservative predominance, the Republican Party promotes its own political ideas through the Supreme Court's interpretation of the Constitution, subtly changing the development direction of American law and social environment, such as promoting big government and restricting equal rights.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf187581b0026bfb8614a65297ebbd7\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The governor's race is equally worth watching.</b>A total of 36 governor seats were re-elected this year, and the governor's race is similar to the congressional election, which also consists of primary, runoff and final elections. The governor is the commanding point of executive power in every state, so it is similar to the presidential authority, the highest office in the federal executive system, and even more influential in the state than the president. These powers benefit from the fact that the U.S. Constitution allows states to maintain some independence. Because each state has different state laws, the governor's authority is also different, but it generally includes the following five categories:<b>One is</b>Pass or reject state law bills introduced by the State House;<b>Second,</b>Approval of the state's budget and appropriations;<b>Third,</b>Appoint officials of the State Executive, with the approval of the State House;<b>Fourth,</b>Sign state-level executive orders;<b>Fifth,</b>Declare a state of emergency in order to use the privileges under the state of emergency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f602073a8f15ab36dea3693ddb66b80\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve system is outside the three powers.</b>As the central bank of the United States, its operations and decision-making<b>Independence from the federal government</b>, mainly dedicated to formulating<b>Monetary policy</b>And to the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>Conduct regulation, etc. The Federal Reserve mainly consists of three parts: the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve Bank, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with the Federal Reserve Board at its core. The Board of Governors implements monetary policy through 12 Federal Reserve Banks, and the members of the Board of Governors and the chairmen of each Federal Reserve Bank form the Federal Open Market Committee. Members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors are directly nominated by the President of the United States and confirmed by a vote of the Senate for a 14-year term that is non-*-eligible. The terms of directors are staggered by two years, i.e. new directors are appointed every even-numbered year. The Chairman is appointed for a term of 4 years and may be * until the end of his 14-year term as a Governor. Similar to senators, long terms and biennial changes ensure the Fed's independence in the medium and long term from the excessive influence of the ruling party.</p><p><h3>2. Why are midterm elections important?</h3><b>The midterm elections involve the re-election of members of Congress.</b>Congress's primary authority lies in legislation, and from government budgets to defense bills, laws large and small need to go through a lengthy congressional process to pass. In addition to legislation, Congress also has the following important functions and powers:<b>Right to amend constitution</b>； The second is \"<b>Moneybag Rights \"</b>That is, the power to realize appropriations through the three committees of appropriations, budget and fundraising; Third, part<b>Military power</b>It mainly includes the right to declare war and the power to provide military expenses. In addition to the above functions and powers,<b>Each House and Senate have privileges.</b></p><p>On the Senate side,<b>Firstly</b>The primary privilege is<b>Approval of federal positions elected by the President</b>, which includes members of the Cabinet, the Supreme Justice, and members of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors. Only when the Senate of Congress is in recess, the president can use the recess appointment power to appoint his own elected officials without the approval of the Senate, but in recent years the Senate has also had some cumbersome new countermeasures to circumvent this presidential privilege.<b>Secondly</b>The Senate needs to respond to any proposal by the House<b>Recall Proposal for Vote Ruling</b>。<b>Finally,</b>The Senate also has the power to approve the adoption of international treaties.</p><p>In the House of Representatives,<b>First of all,</b>The most important privilege is<b>Initiate fiscal and tax-related proposals</b>。 But any bill involving fiscal revenue must be proposed by the House of Representatives.<b>Secondly,</b>The House owns<b>recall</b>The rights of any federal official cover the entire political system of the executive, legislative and judicial, even the president. There have been three U.S. presidents in history who have been formally proposed to be removed by the House of Representatives: Johnson, Clinton and Trump.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14761046bda55cce9fd58e6bfbc3a8d0\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Senate represents the interests of the states</b>。 Regardless of the size, population, and economic situation of each state, all 50 states in the United States have two equal Senate seats, totaling 100 senators. The current Senate party is 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 2 Liberals. The two camps are evenly voted in the Senate because the two liberal senators are skewed toward Democrats in political direction. In addition to the Senators, the Senate has the position of President of the Senate, which is held by the incumbent Vice President. Therefore, when the Senate fails to decide a majority vote, the President of the Senate will have the right to cast an additional runoff vote. Now Vice President Harris is a Democrat,<b>The Senate as a whole is controlled by Democrats.</b></p><p>The special term and re-election system of the Senate, for<b>Balancing the President and the House of Representatives</b>Has a vital role. The term of office of senators is six years, and the 100 senators are divided into three batches, one of which is renewed every two years. Senators have longer terms than representatives and presidents, and can focus more on the long-term interests of the country than on short-term achievements, * and elections. At the same time, a batch of reelections every two years can ensure that there is enough fresh blood in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/856f4c50d5110ca20dbd359766bfceeb\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The House of Representatives distributes seats in proportion to the population</b>。 The U.S. Constitution first distributes 435 seats in the House of Representatives according to the proportion of the population of each state in the latest census. At the same time, districts are subdivided within each state according to the population and the number of seats in the state, and each seat will represent this district in Congress. A total of 13 states saw seat numbers change after the latest census in 2020. Of those, seven states have reduced numbers and five are Democratic-dominated; There were 6 numbers increased and 4 were Republican-dominated. Overall, Republican-dominated states gained more seats. This year, as the first House of Representatives election after the new gerrymandering, may be particularly favorable for Republicans.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fcb3c079613d1b1683580897d7dffab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How is a typical bill legislated?</b>We have put together a typical legislative process:<b>Step 1</b>Any member of the Senate or the House of Representatives may<b>drafting</b>A motion.<b>Step 2</b>The motion is in the chamber where the drafting Member sits<b>publicity</b>。<b>Step 3</b>The bill is assigned to one of the chambers after publicity<b>Further study by the Committee</b>。 In the course of the study, the committee may open a notary meeting to invite experts and officials of administrative bodies to express their opinions.<b>Step 4</b>The committee assigned the motion to the more professional<b>Subcommittee conducts studies</b>Amending and voting on whether to transfer the proposal back to the committee to proceed to the next process.<b>Step 5</b>The Committee proceeded with the resolution<b>revision</b>And to vote on whether to put the bill to a full vote in that chamber.<b>Step 6</b>, this House proceeds to vote. such as<b>If passed, the bill will be sent to another chamber</b>Repeat steps 1 to 6. In the process, Congress can open<b>The Consultative Committee,</b>Coordinate the different versions of the bill in the two Houses.<b>Step 7</b>If the Consultative Committee members succeed in helping the two Houses reach a consensus, a Consultation Report shall be prepared and<b>The two houses voted separately</b>Pass.<b>Step 8</b>The same version of the bill will be voted on by both houses<b>To the President</b>。 The president needs to resolve the bill within 10 days<b>Pass or reject</b>If the deadline is overdue, the motion will be passed automatically. If the president exercises his veto power, Congress may attempt to override the president's veto power by vote. The President's veto will be overturned as long as the bill is passed by at least 2/3 votes in each chamber,<b>Legislative success.</b></p><p>In the Senate legislative process, members can interfere with the vote on a bill using a number of Senate-specific means, the most prominent of which are<b>Obstruction of proceedings</b>。 Since the Senate allows members to express their views for an unlimited period of time without interruption, the weaker parties can use the \"filibuster\" to speak for dozens of hours to impede the Senate vote. The threatening effect of a filibuster is difficult to take effect at present, and the Senate can set a 60-vote limit on the time a member can speak.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e621ce8dcebb55448dac306445dd3f\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><h3>3. Will Biden lose the House of Representatives?</h3><b>The ruling party often loses the House of Representatives in midterm elections.</b>Historically, midterm elections have seen the ruling party typically lose a large number of congressional seats. In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 to the present, the ruling party lost an average of 28 House seats, or about 6% of the total seats; Losing an average of 4 Senate seats, or 4% of total seats. If we look more recently, in the last 12 midterm elections from 1975 to the present,<b>83% of the ruling party lost support in the House of Representatives</b>It can be seen that the House is the ruling party's biggest nightmare in the midterm elections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e64b0c61909b39e4237f9f242936a61\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some scholars try to explain this phenomenon. Among them, the two main theories are<b>Skirt effect</b>And<b>Presidential punishment</b>。<b>Skirt effect</b>It means that when the president is popular in a general election, he will guide voters to support the party's lawmakers into Congress. By the midterm elections two years later, voters were cold and dissatisfied with the unfulfilled campaign manifesto, and their enthusiasm to vote was dramatically reduced.<b>Presidential punishment</b>It means that voters are more willing to vote when angry, and if angry voters (mostly opposing parties) turn out more and more than satisfied voters, then the president's camp is more likely to lose seats in Congress. Republican voter enthusiasm this year was much higher than in the 2018 midterm elections, while Democratic voter enthusiasm was sluggish. It can be speculated that,<b>High voting enthusiasm in the primary could mean higher turnout among Republican voters in the final election as well.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371ded2b24ed57e52a4da42729ecfcaa\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Approval ratings determine the House of Representatives.</b>Through statistics, we find that the level of the president's approval rating during the midterm elections is obviously related to the number of Congressional seats lost by the ruling party in the midterm elections. The lower the president's approval rating in the midterm, the more seats lost in the House of Representatives. According to FiveThirtyEight, an authoritative election forecasting website, Biden's approval rating for the same period ranked in the bottom of any president in nearly 80 years, and his current approval rating is slightly higher than Reagan and Trump by an extremely narrow margin. Biden has an extremely high probability of losing more congressional seats.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8736610e36aa98adc53c1f6ce86aa93\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Senate Democrats lead.</b>According to FiveThirtyEight's Senate midterm election model in late September, the current Democratic Party has a higher probability of winning the Senate than the Republican Party. The Democratic Party has a chance of winning about 70% and a lead of about 1-2 seats. This lead was hard-earned. Republicans maintained a steady advantage until the end of July, and with the passage of the CHIP bill, Biden's approval rating rose all the way, leading Democrats to gradually lead in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3836db86afb5d69117db369191293\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>House Republicans lead</b>。 Also according to FiveThirtyEight's House forecast model, Republicans have a big lead in the House of Representatives by about 70%, which is expected to be about 17 more seats for Democrats, equivalent to 4% of the total number of seats. That's largely due to two things: On the one hand, after the 2020 census, Republican-dominated states grew at a higher rate of population growth than Democratic-dominated states, so Republicans got more House seats. On the other hand, more Democratic House members have opted to retire this year from seeking *, thus giving Republicans more opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57de9db5b284f0debd0a0c32249c6a8e\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Biden administration will face constraints once it loses both chambers</b>。 According to FiveThirtyEight's comprehensive model, Biden has a nearly 30 percent chance of losing both chambers and becoming the so-called \"<b>The lame duck president \"</b>There is no executive power but no legislative power in Congress. In fact,<b>\"Lame duck presidents\" are not uncommon in history</b>In 10 (40 percent) of the 25 Congresses in the past 50 years, both houses have been controlled by the president's opposing parties. Six of the nine presidents have lost support from both houses during their time in office.</p><p><b>Losing Congressional support would mean</b>: First,<b>On the legislative power of Congress</b>Biden may need to make larger concessions and compromises to the Republican Party to advance the policy. Secondly,<b>On the \"money bag right\"</b>It will be harder for Biden's Democratic Party to introduce bills related to core Democratic political ideas such as tax hikes. Finally,<b>On constitutional amendment and military power</b>We don't expect to have much of an impact. In addition, losing Congress will not have much impact on monetary policy. Although the Federal Reserve system is supervised by Congress, its decision-making is relatively independent.</p><p><b>Judging from the privileges of the Houses</b>Because Biden has a high probability of losing the House of Representatives, it is expected that Biden will lose the initiative in implementing tax and fiscal policies, and it may be more difficult for the United States to pass a fiscal subsidy bill for domestic industries in the future. If the Senate is unfortunately lost, its privileges may have little impact on the Biden administration. The main privilege of the Senate lies in the approval of federal officials appointed by the president. At present, the probability of personnel change at the federal level is small, the justices are relatively healthy, and the term of Fed officials has just begun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aa68553eceed97850929f4bb0acd0b\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning: Policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected, and the risk of bias is measured.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What are Biden's odds of winning the \"midterm elections\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat are Biden's odds of winning the \"midterm elections\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-08 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. midterm primaries have concluded, and the final election will open in early November. The midterm elections will determine the party affiliation of the Senate and House of Representatives, thus affecting the direction and effect of Biden's future administration. So, what do you choose in the midterm elections? Why are midterm elections so important? Will Biden Lose the House? This report analyzes this.</p><p><h3>1. What are the important elections in the United States?</h3>Before we talk about the midterm elections,<b>First of all, we need to form a basic understanding of the American political system.</b></p><p><b>The political basis of the \"separation of powers\".</b>The United States Constitution divides the functions and powers of the federal government into three parts, making each party check and balance and independent of each other. Among them, the legislative power is in the hands of Congress, which is divided into two parts: the Senate and the House of Representatives. Its duties, powers and the number of members are very different. Executive power is handed over to the President and the White House. Judicial power lies in the Supreme Court, which is determined by nine supreme justices serving for life.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda36251c8cb459ed05bc0e479d422f4\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Executive power is exercised by the President of the United States and members of the Cabinet</b>。 While the U.S.<b>Presidential elections</b>，<b>Commonly known as general election</b>It is also an extremely hot international event once every four years. The presidential election is based on the Electoral College system, which is unique to the United States.<b>First of all,</b>The electors of each state are elected by the votes of the voters of that state.<b>Then,</b>The electors with the most votes in the state then vote for the presidential candidate on behalf of voters in the entire state.<b>in the end</b>, the candidate who obtains more than 270 votes out of 538 electoral votes will win. Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that the electors of each state hold the same number of votes as the number of members of Congress in that state, while the number of House seats is determined by the total population of the state, so the more populous states also have a larger number of votes. Generally speaking, the more electoral votes a president receives, the more voters in total support of him. However, there have been five special cases in history, that is, the total number of voters of the winning president lags behind, but the electoral votes lead. For example, in 2016, Trump fell behind nearly 3 million voters, but won the general election with a large lead of 77 electoral votes (14% of the total votes).</p><p><b>Cabinet members are not involved in elections</b>, appointed by and accountable to the President. Usually, the successor president proposes Cabinet candidates to the Senate before taking the oath of office. More than 20 Cabinet positions, such as Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State, require opinions from relevant Senate committees, and then the Senate votes, with more than half of the support before they can pass.</p><p><b>In addition to electing a cabinet, the president has the following five main powers. First,</b>Elect federal positions such as the top judge, members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, etc.<b>Second,</b>Pass or veto bills passed by Congress as the last hurdle in the legislative process.<b>Third,</b>The right to sign executive orders, i.e. to legislate indirectly by issuing executive orders to federal agencies.<b>Fourth,</b>The power of pardon, that is, the president can grant pardons to some people who have violated federal law.<b>Fifth,</b>Military command, the president, as the supreme commander of the U.S. military, can ask Congress to exercise the power to declare war, and can also command the U.S. military in wartime and non-wartime.<b>in addition</b>The president can engage in diplomacy, declare national emergencies, and sign international treaties with the approval of the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efc6092dbae8224d63a5d5d59f1642fc\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Legislative power is exercised by Congress</b>。 Congress involves<b>Senator</b>And<b>Rep.</b>The elections. At the same time as each general election, the United States Congress is also in the process of changing electorate. But unlike the presidential election,<b>Congressional elections are not held only in general election years, but every even-numbered year. Midterm elections</b>That is, two years after the president takes office, the process of Congress changing again during the presidential term. Members of the House are served for a two-year term, that is, every two years the entire House needs to be re-elected. The term of the Senate is six years, but the 100 members are divided into three staggered batches (33, 33, and 34, respectively), so that 1/3 of the Senate is changed every two years. In total, there are about 468 congressional seats awaiting new owners in each general and midterm election.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cec6ac0276cbc86e3f215aaf0f35540\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Members of Parliament are decided by popular vote.</b>In<b>Electoral system</b>Congressional elections do not use the electoral system, but are decided directly by popular vote. Among them, Senators are elected by residents throughout the state, while House of Representatives are elected only by residents of that jurisdiction themselves. Congress<b>Election Process</b>Usually divided into<b>Three stages</b>: Primary, runoff, final.<b>Firstly</b>Primary elections are an election process within each party. Each party needs to select one party candidate for each Congressional seat vote.<b>Secondly</b>For most states in the United States, if no candidate gets 50% of the vote in the primary, the top two candidates with the most votes will compete in the next round, i.e.<b>runoff election</b>。<b>in the end</b>The party candidate who wins the primary and runoff elections will travel to Washington to face off against candidates from other parties, and this is the final election, the final stage of the general election to Congress.</p><p>Because each state has a different election schedule, the primary and runoff elections will last about half a year, usually between March and September of an election year, while the final election usually takes place on the second Tuesday in November of that year. This year's final election will be held on November 8th, and the final results will be announced by each state in November and December. The newly elected 118th Congressman will be scheduled to take office on January 3, 2023. The state primary elections are now over, meaning the intra-party contest is over, with more than 400 bipartisan primary winners facing off in Washington, D.C. in three months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/376f5d1fdca5627a30e5c7153b86373d\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Judicial power is exercised by the Chancellor.</b>Supreme Court justices are nominated by the President of the United States and are subject to a resolution of more than half the vote of the Senate. on account of<b>The term of office of the Chancellor is for life</b>A vacancy for presidential nomination will only arise if the incumbent justice dies, voluntarily retires, or is removed. Justice Ketanji Jackson's appointment process is a more typical judicial change process:<b>Firstly</b>Biden nominated Jackson on Feb. 25 this year to replace Justice Stephen Breyer, who voluntarily retired in January.<b>subsequently</b>, the Senate voted on Jackson on April 7 and passed 53-47.<b>in the end</b>Jackson was sworn in on June 30 this year. There are currently no vacant justices awaiting renewal.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885b7e4a220c570c9f7d7f433bff57c4\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Justices interpret the Constitution</b>。 The Supreme Court's decision is based on the interpretation of the Constitution by the nine justices, so it is the final decision of the entire judicial system, and can only be overturned by amending the Constitution by Congress. Therefore, under the case law system of the United States, Supreme Court justices' decisions are a<b>Indirect \"legislative\" behavior</b>。 Combined with such supreme power, lifetime tenure, and subjectivity in the interpretation of the Constitution, the political leanings of the justices have a crucial role in American society as a whole. While a justice's political partisan message is non-public, its political leanings can be clearly reflected by its decisions and statements. The current Supreme Court consists of six Republican-leaning and three Democratic-leaning justices. Under such a long-term conservative predominance, the Republican Party promotes its own political ideas through the Supreme Court's interpretation of the Constitution, subtly changing the development direction of American law and social environment, such as promoting big government and restricting equal rights.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf187581b0026bfb8614a65297ebbd7\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The governor's race is equally worth watching.</b>A total of 36 governor seats were re-elected this year, and the governor's race is similar to the congressional election, which also consists of primary, runoff and final elections. The governor is the commanding point of executive power in every state, so it is similar to the presidential authority, the highest office in the federal executive system, and even more influential in the state than the president. These powers benefit from the fact that the U.S. Constitution allows states to maintain some independence. Because each state has different state laws, the governor's authority is also different, but it generally includes the following five categories:<b>One is</b>Pass or reject state law bills introduced by the State House;<b>Second,</b>Approval of the state's budget and appropriations;<b>Third,</b>Appoint officials of the State Executive, with the approval of the State House;<b>Fourth,</b>Sign state-level executive orders;<b>Fifth,</b>Declare a state of emergency in order to use the privileges under the state of emergency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f602073a8f15ab36dea3693ddb66b80\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve system is outside the three powers.</b>As the central bank of the United States, its operations and decision-making<b>Independence from the federal government</b>, mainly dedicated to formulating<b>Monetary policy</b>And to the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institutions</a>Conduct regulation, etc. The Federal Reserve mainly consists of three parts: the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve Bank, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with the Federal Reserve Board at its core. The Board of Governors implements monetary policy through 12 Federal Reserve Banks, and the members of the Board of Governors and the chairmen of each Federal Reserve Bank form the Federal Open Market Committee. Members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors are directly nominated by the President of the United States and confirmed by a vote of the Senate for a 14-year term that is non-*-eligible. The terms of directors are staggered by two years, i.e. new directors are appointed every even-numbered year. The Chairman is appointed for a term of 4 years and may be * until the end of his 14-year term as a Governor. Similar to senators, long terms and biennial changes ensure the Fed's independence in the medium and long term from the excessive influence of the ruling party.</p><p><h3>2. Why are midterm elections important?</h3><b>The midterm elections involve the re-election of members of Congress.</b>Congress's primary authority lies in legislation, and from government budgets to defense bills, laws large and small need to go through a lengthy congressional process to pass. In addition to legislation, Congress also has the following important functions and powers:<b>Right to amend constitution</b>； The second is \"<b>Moneybag Rights \"</b>That is, the power to realize appropriations through the three committees of appropriations, budget and fundraising; Third, part<b>Military power</b>It mainly includes the right to declare war and the power to provide military expenses. In addition to the above functions and powers,<b>Each House and Senate have privileges.</b></p><p>On the Senate side,<b>Firstly</b>The primary privilege is<b>Approval of federal positions elected by the President</b>, which includes members of the Cabinet, the Supreme Justice, and members of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors. Only when the Senate of Congress is in recess, the president can use the recess appointment power to appoint his own elected officials without the approval of the Senate, but in recent years the Senate has also had some cumbersome new countermeasures to circumvent this presidential privilege.<b>Secondly</b>The Senate needs to respond to any proposal by the House<b>Recall Proposal for Vote Ruling</b>。<b>Finally,</b>The Senate also has the power to approve the adoption of international treaties.</p><p>In the House of Representatives,<b>First of all,</b>The most important privilege is<b>Initiate fiscal and tax-related proposals</b>。 But any bill involving fiscal revenue must be proposed by the House of Representatives.<b>Secondly,</b>The House owns<b>recall</b>The rights of any federal official cover the entire political system of the executive, legislative and judicial, even the president. There have been three U.S. presidents in history who have been formally proposed to be removed by the House of Representatives: Johnson, Clinton and Trump.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14761046bda55cce9fd58e6bfbc3a8d0\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Senate represents the interests of the states</b>。 Regardless of the size, population, and economic situation of each state, all 50 states in the United States have two equal Senate seats, totaling 100 senators. The current Senate party is 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 2 Liberals. The two camps are evenly voted in the Senate because the two liberal senators are skewed toward Democrats in political direction. In addition to the Senators, the Senate has the position of President of the Senate, which is held by the incumbent Vice President. Therefore, when the Senate fails to decide a majority vote, the President of the Senate will have the right to cast an additional runoff vote. Now Vice President Harris is a Democrat,<b>The Senate as a whole is controlled by Democrats.</b></p><p>The special term and re-election system of the Senate, for<b>Balancing the President and the House of Representatives</b>Has a vital role. The term of office of senators is six years, and the 100 senators are divided into three batches, one of which is renewed every two years. Senators have longer terms than representatives and presidents, and can focus more on the long-term interests of the country than on short-term achievements, * and elections. At the same time, a batch of reelections every two years can ensure that there is enough fresh blood in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/856f4c50d5110ca20dbd359766bfceeb\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The House of Representatives distributes seats in proportion to the population</b>。 The U.S. Constitution first distributes 435 seats in the House of Representatives according to the proportion of the population of each state in the latest census. At the same time, districts are subdivided within each state according to the population and the number of seats in the state, and each seat will represent this district in Congress. A total of 13 states saw seat numbers change after the latest census in 2020. Of those, seven states have reduced numbers and five are Democratic-dominated; There were 6 numbers increased and 4 were Republican-dominated. Overall, Republican-dominated states gained more seats. This year, as the first House of Representatives election after the new gerrymandering, may be particularly favorable for Republicans.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fcb3c079613d1b1683580897d7dffab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>How is a typical bill legislated?</b>We have put together a typical legislative process:<b>Step 1</b>Any member of the Senate or the House of Representatives may<b>drafting</b>A motion.<b>Step 2</b>The motion is in the chamber where the drafting Member sits<b>publicity</b>。<b>Step 3</b>The bill is assigned to one of the chambers after publicity<b>Further study by the Committee</b>。 In the course of the study, the committee may open a notary meeting to invite experts and officials of administrative bodies to express their opinions.<b>Step 4</b>The committee assigned the motion to the more professional<b>Subcommittee conducts studies</b>Amending and voting on whether to transfer the proposal back to the committee to proceed to the next process.<b>Step 5</b>The Committee proceeded with the resolution<b>revision</b>And to vote on whether to put the bill to a full vote in that chamber.<b>Step 6</b>, this House proceeds to vote. such as<b>If passed, the bill will be sent to another chamber</b>Repeat steps 1 to 6. In the process, Congress can open<b>The Consultative Committee,</b>Coordinate the different versions of the bill in the two Houses.<b>Step 7</b>If the Consultative Committee members succeed in helping the two Houses reach a consensus, a Consultation Report shall be prepared and<b>The two houses voted separately</b>Pass.<b>Step 8</b>The same version of the bill will be voted on by both houses<b>To the President</b>。 The president needs to resolve the bill within 10 days<b>Pass or reject</b>If the deadline is overdue, the motion will be passed automatically. If the president exercises his veto power, Congress may attempt to override the president's veto power by vote. The President's veto will be overturned as long as the bill is passed by at least 2/3 votes in each chamber,<b>Legislative success.</b></p><p>In the Senate legislative process, members can interfere with the vote on a bill using a number of Senate-specific means, the most prominent of which are<b>Obstruction of proceedings</b>。 Since the Senate allows members to express their views for an unlimited period of time without interruption, the weaker parties can use the \"filibuster\" to speak for dozens of hours to impede the Senate vote. The threatening effect of a filibuster is difficult to take effect at present, and the Senate can set a 60-vote limit on the time a member can speak.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e621ce8dcebb55448dac306445dd3f\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><h3>3. Will Biden lose the House of Representatives?</h3><b>The ruling party often loses the House of Representatives in midterm elections.</b>Historically, midterm elections have seen the ruling party typically lose a large number of congressional seats. In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 to the present, the ruling party lost an average of 28 House seats, or about 6% of the total seats; Losing an average of 4 Senate seats, or 4% of total seats. If we look more recently, in the last 12 midterm elections from 1975 to the present,<b>83% of the ruling party lost support in the House of Representatives</b>It can be seen that the House is the ruling party's biggest nightmare in the midterm elections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e64b0c61909b39e4237f9f242936a61\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some scholars try to explain this phenomenon. Among them, the two main theories are<b>Skirt effect</b>And<b>Presidential punishment</b>。<b>Skirt effect</b>It means that when the president is popular in a general election, he will guide voters to support the party's lawmakers into Congress. By the midterm elections two years later, voters were cold and dissatisfied with the unfulfilled campaign manifesto, and their enthusiasm to vote was dramatically reduced.<b>Presidential punishment</b>It means that voters are more willing to vote when angry, and if angry voters (mostly opposing parties) turn out more and more than satisfied voters, then the president's camp is more likely to lose seats in Congress. Republican voter enthusiasm this year was much higher than in the 2018 midterm elections, while Democratic voter enthusiasm was sluggish. It can be speculated that,<b>High voting enthusiasm in the primary could mean higher turnout among Republican voters in the final election as well.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371ded2b24ed57e52a4da42729ecfcaa\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Approval ratings determine the House of Representatives.</b>Through statistics, we find that the level of the president's approval rating during the midterm elections is obviously related to the number of Congressional seats lost by the ruling party in the midterm elections. The lower the president's approval rating in the midterm, the more seats lost in the House of Representatives. According to FiveThirtyEight, an authoritative election forecasting website, Biden's approval rating for the same period ranked in the bottom of any president in nearly 80 years, and his current approval rating is slightly higher than Reagan and Trump by an extremely narrow margin. Biden has an extremely high probability of losing more congressional seats.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8736610e36aa98adc53c1f6ce86aa93\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Senate Democrats lead.</b>According to FiveThirtyEight's Senate midterm election model in late September, the current Democratic Party has a higher probability of winning the Senate than the Republican Party. The Democratic Party has a chance of winning about 70% and a lead of about 1-2 seats. This lead was hard-earned. Republicans maintained a steady advantage until the end of July, and with the passage of the CHIP bill, Biden's approval rating rose all the way, leading Democrats to gradually lead in the Senate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa3836db86afb5d69117db369191293\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>House Republicans lead</b>。 Also according to FiveThirtyEight's House forecast model, Republicans have a big lead in the House of Representatives by about 70%, which is expected to be about 17 more seats for Democrats, equivalent to 4% of the total number of seats. That's largely due to two things: On the one hand, after the 2020 census, Republican-dominated states grew at a higher rate of population growth than Democratic-dominated states, so Republicans got more House seats. On the other hand, more Democratic House members have opted to retire this year from seeking *, thus giving Republicans more opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57de9db5b284f0debd0a0c32249c6a8e\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Biden administration will face constraints once it loses both chambers</b>。 According to FiveThirtyEight's comprehensive model, Biden has a nearly 30 percent chance of losing both chambers and becoming the so-called \"<b>The lame duck president \"</b>There is no executive power but no legislative power in Congress. In fact,<b>\"Lame duck presidents\" are not uncommon in history</b>In 10 (40 percent) of the 25 Congresses in the past 50 years, both houses have been controlled by the president's opposing parties. Six of the nine presidents have lost support from both houses during their time in office.</p><p><b>Losing Congressional support would mean</b>: First,<b>On the legislative power of Congress</b>Biden may need to make larger concessions and compromises to the Republican Party to advance the policy. Secondly,<b>On the \"money bag right\"</b>It will be harder for Biden's Democratic Party to introduce bills related to core Democratic political ideas such as tax hikes. Finally,<b>On constitutional amendment and military power</b>We don't expect to have much of an impact. In addition, losing Congress will not have much impact on monetary policy. Although the Federal Reserve system is supervised by Congress, its decision-making is relatively independent.</p><p><b>Judging from the privileges of the Houses</b>Because Biden has a high probability of losing the House of Representatives, it is expected that Biden will lose the initiative in implementing tax and fiscal policies, and it may be more difficult for the United States to pass a fiscal subsidy bill for domestic industries in the future. If the Senate is unfortunately lost, its privileges may have little impact on the Biden administration. The main privilege of the Senate lies in the approval of federal officials appointed by the president. At present, the probability of personnel change at the federal level is small, the justices are relatively healthy, and the term of Fed officials has just begun.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4aa68553eceed97850929f4bb0acd0b\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Risk warning: Policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected, and the risk of bias is measured.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555249\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b0ec49e09fe3649cc7f7f662e136c7","relate_stocks":{"BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","FOMC":"FOMO CORP."},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555249","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2273357388","content_text":"美国中期选举初选已经结束，终选将于11月初开启。中期选举将决定参众议院的党派归属，从而影响未来拜登施政的方向与效果。那么，中期选举选什么？为何中期选举如此重要？拜登会输掉众议院吗？本报告对此展开分析。1. 美国重要选举有哪些？在谈论中期选举之前，首先我们需要对美国政治体系形成一个基础性的认识。“三权分立”的政治基础。美国宪法将联邦政府的职权一分为三，使得各方相互制衡、相互独立。其中立法权掌握在国会的手中，分为参议院与众议院两部分，其职责、权力、议员数量都大不相同。行政权被交付给总统和白宫。司法权在最高法院，由九位终身任职的最高大法官决定。行政权由美国总统和内阁成员行使。而美国的总统选举，俗称大选，也是四年一度的极为热门的国际事件。总统选举依据的是美国特有的选举人团制度（Electoral College）。首先，由每个州的选民票选出该州的选举人。然后，再由该州得票最多的选举人代表整个州的选民对总统候选人进行投票。最后，在538个选举人票中获得超过270票的候选人将获胜。此外，值得一提的是，每个州的选举人所持有的票数和该州的国会议员数量相同，而众议院席位数由该州总人口决定，因此人口多的州拥有的选票数额也更多。通常而言，总统获得的选举人票越多，则意味着支持他的选民总数也越多。然而历史上也出现过5次特殊情况，即获胜总统的总选民数量落后，但选举人票领先，如2016年特朗普虽落后近300万选民数，但以77张选举人票（14%总票数）的大幅领先而赢下大选。内阁成员不涉及选举，由总统任命并对其负责。通常，继任总统在宣誓入职前向参议院提出内阁人选，其中国防部长和国务卿等超过20个内阁职位需要参议院相关委员会出示意见，随后再由参议院投票，支持过半才能通过。除选阁之外，总统还有以下五大主要职权。第一，推举最高法官、美联储理事会成员等联邦职位。第二，对国会所通过的法案进行通过或否决，作为立法流程的最后一个关卡。第三，签署行政命令的权利，即通过向联邦机构发出行政命令来间接的立法。第四，赦免权，即总统可以对一些触犯了联邦法的人进行赦免。第五，军事指挥权，总统作为美国军队最高统领，可以要求国会行使宣战权，同时也可以在战时和非战时指挥美国军队。此外，总统可以参与外交，宣布国家紧急状态，以及在参议院的审批下签署国际条约。立法权由国会行使。国会则涉及参议员和众议员的选举。在每次大选进行的同时，美国国会同样也在换届的过程中。但有别于总统选举的是，国会选举并非仅在大选年进行，而是每个偶数年进行一次。中期选举也就是在总统上任的两年后，国会议员在总统任期中再度换届的过程。众议员的任期是两年，即每两年整个众议院都需要重新改选。参议院的任期是六年，但是100位议员被分为三个交错的批次（分别有33、33和34人），因此每两年都有1/3的参议院进行换届。总的来说，在每次大选和中期选举中，都会有约468名国会席位等待新的主人。议员由普选决定。在选举制度上，国会选举并不使用选举人制度，而是由普选直接决定。其中，参议员的选举由全州居民投选，而众议员则只由该辖区的居民自己投选。国会选举流程通常分为三个阶段：初选、决选、终选。首先，初选是一个各党派内部的选举过程。每个党派内需要为每一个国会席位票选出一个党内候选人。其次，对美国的大多数州来说，如果初选中没有候选人获得50%的票数，则得票最多的前两名候选人将进行下一轮角逐，即决选。最后，在初选和决选中胜出的党内候选人将前往华盛顿与其他党派的候选人一决胜负，而这就是终选，也是国会换届选举的最后一个环节。由于每个州的选举日程不同，初选和决选将持续约半年之久，通常在选举年的3月到9月间进行，而终选通常在当年11月第二个星期二。今年的终选将在11月8日举行，而最终的选举结果将陆续由各个州在11月和12月公布。新选举出的第118届国会议员将计划于2023年1月3日就任。目前各州初选已经结束，意味着党内角逐已经结束，四百余名两党初选的胜者将于三个月后在华盛顿特区一决高下。司法权由大法官行使。最高法院大法官由美国总统提名，需经参议院过半票数决议通过。由于大法官的任期为终身制，只有在现任大法官辞世、主动退休或被罢免，才会出现空缺供总统提名。大法官凯坦吉·杰克森的上任流程就是较为典型的司法换届过程：首先，拜登于今年2月25日提名杰克森来接替1月主动退休的大法官斯蒂芬布雷耶。随后，参议院于4月7日对杰克森投票并以53-47票通过。最后，杰克森于今年6月30日宣誓入职。目前没有空缺的大法官席位等待换届。大法官对宪法进行解读。最高法院的裁决依据的是九位大法官对宪法的解读，所以是整个司法体系的最终裁决，唯有通过国会修订宪法才可以推翻。因此，在美国的判例法制度下，最高法院大法官的裁决是一种间接“立法”行为。结合这样至高的权力、终身的任期和对宪法解读的主观性，大法官的政治倾向对整个美国社会都有着至关重要的作用。虽然大法官的政治党派信息是非公开的，但其政治倾向可以由其判决结果和声明清晰地反映出来。当前最高法院由6名倾向共和党和3名倾向民主党的大法官组成。在这样的长期保守派占优的现状下，共和党通过最高法院对于宪法的解读来推行自己的政治理念，潜移默化地改变美国的法律和社会环境发展方向，例如推行大政府和限制平权。州长的竞选也同样值得关注。今年共有36个州长席位改选，而州长的竞选方式与国会选举类似，也由初选决选以及终选两个环节组成。州长是每个州行政权的制高点，因此和联邦行政系统中最高职位的总统职权相似，在本州中其影响力甚至大于总统。这些权力得益于美国宪法允许各州保持一定的独立性。由于每个州的州法不同，州长的职权也不尽相同，但通常来说包括以下五大类：一是通过或否决州议院所提出的州法法案；二是审批本州的预算和拨款；三是在州议院审批下，任命州行政机关官员；四是签署州级行政命令；五是宣布本州进入紧急状态，以动用紧急状态下的特权。美联储系统在三权之外。作为美国的央行，其运营与决策独立于联邦政府，主要致力于制定货币政策和对美国金融机构进行监管等。美联储主要由美联储理事会、联储银行和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）这三个部分组成，其核心是美联储理事会。理事会通过12个联储银行来实施货币政策，而理事会的成员以及各联储银行的主席构建成联邦公开市场委员会。联储理事会的成员由美国总统直接提名，并由参议院投票确认，任期为14年且不可连任。理事的任期错开两年，即每偶数年都有新的理事上任。主席任期为4年且可以连任直至其14年理事任期结束。和参议员相似，超长的任期和两年一度的换届确保了联储在中长期的独立性，不受执政党派过多的影响。2. 中期选举为何重要？中期选举涉及国会议员改选。国会的主要职权在于立法，从政府预算到国防法案，大大小小的法律都需要经过冗长的国会流程来通过。除立法外，国会还有以下重要职权：一是修宪权；二是“钱袋权”，即通过拨款、预算和筹款三大委员会来实现拨款的权力；三是部分军权，主要包括宣战权和提供军费的权力。除以上职权外，参众两院各有特权。参议院方面，首先，最主要的特权是对总统推举的联邦职位进行批准，其中包括内阁成员、最高法官和美联储理事会成员。只有在国会参议院休会期间，总统可以使用休会任命权，在不经参议院批准的情况下任命自己推举的官员，但近年来参议院也有一些繁琐的新对策来规避这一总统特权。其次，参议院需要对任何众议院所提出的罢免提议进行投票裁决。最后，参议院还有权批准通过国际条约。众议院方面，首先，最重要特权是发起财政税收相关议案。但凡是涉及财政税收的议案，必须由众议院提出。其次，众议院拥有罢免任何联邦官员的权利，涵盖了行政、立法和司法整个政治体系，甚至包括总统。历史上曾有三位美国总统被众议院正式提出罢免，分别是约翰逊、克林顿和特朗普。参议院代表各州权益。无论各个州的面积、人口、经济状况如何，美国的50个州都平等的拥有两个参议院席位，总计100名参议员。当前的参议员政党分布为50名共和党员，48名民主党员及2名自由党派人士。由于两名自由党派参议员在政治方向上偏向民主党，因此两党阵营在参议院投票权旗鼓相当。在参议员之外，参议院另设有参议院主席职位，由在任副总统担任。因此当参议院未能决出多数票时，参议院主席将有权投出额外的一张决胜票。时下美国副总统哈里斯为民主党员，参议院整体受民主党控制。参议院特殊的任期和换届制度，对于制衡总统和众议院有着至关重要的作用。参议员的任期为6年，而100名参议员被一共分为3个批次，每两年对其中一个批次进行换届。与众议员和总统相比参议员有更长的任期，可以更着眼于国家的长期利益，而非致力于短期政绩、连任和选举。同时每两年进行一个批次的换届可以确保参议院中有足够多的新鲜血液。众议院按照人口比例分配席位。美国宪法先按照最新的人口普查中的各州的人口比例来分配435个众议员席位。同时，在每个州内根据人口和该州席位数量再划分选区，每个席位将在国会中代表这个选区。在2020年的最新人口普查后，共有13个州的席位数量发生变化。其中，7个州人数减少，5个是民主党主导；有6个人数增加，4个是共和党主导。总体来看，共和党主导的州获得了更多的席位。今年作为新的选区划分后的首次众议员选举，或对共和党格外有利。典型法案如何立法？我们整理出一个典型的法案立法过程：第一步，参议院或众议院中的任意一位议员可以起草一个议案。第二步，议案在起草议员所在的议院公示。第三步，议案在公示后被分配给该议院的一个委员会进一步研究。委员会在研究过程中可以开设公证会，邀请行政机构专家和官员发表意见。第四步，委员会将议案下分给更专业的附属委员会进行研究、修改和票决是否将议案移交回委员会进入下一步流程。第五步，委员会对议案进行修订，并票决是否将议案在该议院进行全体投票。第六步，本议院进行投票。如通过则将议案递送至另一议院，重复第1至6步流程。在此过程中，国会可以开设协商委员会，对两个议院不同版本的该议案进行协调。第七步，如果协商委员成功帮助两议院达成共识，则需撰写协商报告并由两个议院分别投票通过。第八步，同一版本的议案在两议院都得到投票通过后将被送至总统。总统需在10天内对议案进行决议通过或否决，逾期则议案自动通过。若总统行使否决权，国会可通过投票尝试推翻总统的否决权。只要两议院各以至少2/3的票数通过该法案，则总统的否决将被推翻，立法成功。在参议院的立法流程中，议员可以使用一些参议院特有的手段来干预一个法案的投票，其中最突出的是阻挠议事。由于参议院规定议员可以无限时长不被打断的发表观点，较弱势的党派可以使用“阻挠事宜”进行一段长达数十小时的发言，来阻碍参议院投票进程。阻挠事宜的威胁效果目前已经很难生效，参议院可以通过60票来为一个议员的发言时间设限。3.拜登会失去众议院吗？执政党中期选举往往丢掉众议院。从历史上来看，中期选举中，执政党通常会失去大量的国会席位。在从1934年至今的22次中期选举中，执政党平均丢掉28个众议院席位，约占总席位数约6%；平均失去4个参议院席位，即4%的总席位。如果考察更近的一段时间，从1975年至今的过去12次中期选举中，83%的执政党失去了众议院的支持，可见众议院是执政党在中期选举中最大的噩梦。部分学者尝试对这一现象进行解释，其中较为主流的两个理论分别是裙摆效应和总统惩罚。裙摆效应是指，总统在大选中受欢迎时，将引导选民支持该政党的议员进驻国会。而两年后中期选举时，选民已经冷淡，并对没有实现的竞选宣言感到不满，投票热情大幅降低。总统惩罚是指，选民在生气时投票的意愿更强，而如果生气的选民（大多是对立党派）投票率和数量大于满意的选民，那么总统的阵营更容易输掉国会席位。今年共和党的选民投票热情度较2018年中期选举高出很多，而民主党投票热情低迷。可以推测，初选的高投票热情度可能意味着共和党选民在终选中投票率也会更高。支持率决定众议院归属。经过数据统计，我们发现，总统在中期选举期间支持率的水平和该届中期选举执政党失去的国会席位数有较为明显的关系，中期支持率越低的总统，失去的众议院席位数也越多。根据权威选举预测网站FiveThirtyEight的统计，拜登的同期支持率在近80年来的总统中位列倒数，当前支持率以极其微弱的优势略高于里根和特朗普。拜登有极高概率失去较多的国会席位。参议院民主党领先。根据FiveThirtyEight九月下旬的参议院中期选举模型预测，当前民主党比共和党有更高概率赢下参议院，民主党的胜算约为70%且领先约1-2个席位。这一领先是得来不易的，直到7月底之前共和党都还保持着稳定的优势，而随着芯片法案的通过，拜登的支持率一路上行，才带领着民主党在参议院逐渐领跑。众议院共和党领先。同样根据FiveThirtyEight的众议院预测模型，共和党在众议院以约70%的优势大幅领先，预计将多出民主党约17个席位，折合4%的总席位数。这主要得益于两点：一方面，2020年人口普查后，共和党占主导的州人口增速高于民主党主导的州，因此共和党获得更多众议院席位。另一方面，今年有较多的民主党众议员选择退休不再谋取连任，因此给共和党更多机会。一旦失去两院，拜登执政将面临受限。根据FiveThirtyEight的综合模型预测，拜登有近三成概率失去参众两院，成为所谓的“跛脚鸭总统”，空有行政权却失去国会立法权。事实上，“跛脚鸭总统”在历史上并不少见，在过去50年的25届国会中，有10届（40%）中两院都是由总统的对立党派控制。9任总统中6任曾在执政期间失去两院的支持。如果失去国会的支持，则意味着：首先，在国会立法权上，拜登或需对共和党进行较大的让步和妥协来推进政策。其次，在“钱袋权”上，拜登所在的民主党将更难推出加税等民主党核心政治理念相关的法案。最后，在修宪权和军权上，我们预计将不会有太大影响。此外，丢掉国会对货币政策也不会有太大的影响，美联储系统虽受国会监督，但是其决策是相对独立的。从各议院的特权来看，由于拜登丢掉众议院概率较大，预计拜登在推行税收和财政政策上将失去主动权，未来美国通过对国内行业的财政补贴法案的难度或将上升。如果不幸丢掉参议院，其特权或对拜登执政影响不大。参议院的主要特权在于对批准总统任命的联邦官员，当前联邦层面人事变动概率较小，大法官均比较健康，而美联储官员任期也才刚刚开始。风险提示：政策变动，经济恢复不及预期，测算偏差风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FOMC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914656416,"gmtCreate":1665278425535,"gmtModify":1676537580470,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580606618017089","idStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914656416","repostId":"2273395314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914656251,"gmtCreate":1665278412374,"gmtModify":1676537580470,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580606618017089","idStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914656251","repostId":"2273313719","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273313719","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665206863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273313719?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-08 13:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why has the U.S. labor market been delayed to cool down after the sharp rate hike?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273313719","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国新增就业对于美联储加息的反应具有滞后效应。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. non-farm data in September 2022 exceeded expectations across the board: 263,000 new non-farm payrolls were added (Bloomberg consensus estimate of 250,000), the average monthly non-farm payrolls were as high as 420,000 from January to September, the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 3.5% (expected 3.7%), and the labor force participation rate dropped only slightly to 62.3%. With the job market still tight, and the year-on-year salary growth rate still at a high level of 5%, the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve's rate hike will be more firm. After the data was released, Federal Funds rate Futures predicted that the possibility of the Fed's rate hike of 75bp in November rose from 85.5% to 92%, and U.S. stocks turned down.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>Straight up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35b200f9c9c7619075df1b95d958f0f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In just a few months from March to September, the Federal Reserve has a total rate hike of 300bp, but the cooling of the labor market has not arrived, mainly due to the lag of employment data. From the historical data, the response of new jobs in the United States to the rate hike of the Federal Reserve is \"passive\". rate hike can curb the upward trend of new non-farm jobs, but the reversal of this trend is often synchronized with the peak of the rate hike cycle (Figure 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2937acc49eaf91e7321476716332699\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Let's analyze the employment data in September from the industry perspective. Among them, the industries with the most significant growth are still leisure and hospitality industries and education and health services (Figure 5). Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 83,000 jobs in September, unchanged from the January-August average, with food service and drinking establishments alone increasing by 60,000. However, given the gap between employment in the leisure and hospitality industries and pre-pandemic levels, we expect that employment growth in the industry will remain strong during the year. Healthcare employment increased by 60,000 in September and has returned to February 2020 levels.<b>Despite the seasonal headwinds of the youth workforce returning to school, the number of non-farm new jobs in September was only slightly lower than in August, and the U.S. labor market remains strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed5885dd7c1e0fb8a097dd44a72cc43\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since April, new non-farm employment has continued to exceed expectations, and although job vacancies have declined, they remain at a high level, which means that the process of slowing employment growth will be gradual. The U.S. labor market remains resilient, and the Atlanta Fed model shows that the average monthly number of new non-farm payrolls in the U.S. from January to August 2022 was much higher than the number of new non-farm payrolls needed under the target unemployment rate of 4% (Figure 6). There are signs that the U.S. economy is still strong, and the Atlanta Fed's forecast for the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of U.S. real GDP in the third quarter has been revised upward to 2.7% (Figure 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09f33e1575b4bdbe2f87178268ef5a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So, when will America's tight job market ease or even weaken? Observations can be made from four dimensions:</p><p>Dimension 1: The momentum of salary increase, if it continues to slow down, will release a positive signal to inflation. Private sector average hourly wage growth in the U.S. slowed to 5.0% year-over-year in September 2022 (5.2% in August), while smoothed annualized month-over-month growth (3-month moving average) fell to 4.4% (4.8% in August). However, the salary growth rate of the service industry remains high. As shown in Figure 8, the year-on-year salary growth rate of the leisure and hotel industry, which ranks first, is still about 8% from August to September, which is flat from July to August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6a59779761943b363d85e6dfee4736\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 2: Mitigation on both sides of labor supply and demand, with important indicators including job vacancies and turnover rates. Since April 2022, the number of job openings and turnover rates in the United States have continued to decline, with job openings in the leisure accommodation industry, education and health services, and professional and business services decreasing by 0.5 to 1 percentage point in August compared to July (Figure 9-Figure 10). Although the supply and demand situation in the U.S. labor market has improved, and the easing demand for employment in the service sector is expected to bring salary growth down from high levels, job vacancies and turnover rates are still much higher than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cef7b37269f942eda746728c0eea075\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 3: Stagnation of improvement in labor force participation.<b>We believe that the increase in labor force participation has basically peaked,</b>The increase in the labor force participation rate in August was due to the improvement in the participation of the youth population in the summer, which was a seasonal factor. Given that the employment rate of the golden age population has recovered to the pre-pandemic level, there is limited room for the follow-up labor participation rate to recover (Figure 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04724cc3bd14acea9c98044cb455b75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 4: Leading indicators The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time continues to rise, indicating a weak job market. The number of initial claims serves as high-frequency data, and the continued rise in this indicator usually precedes the steady decline in employment in the face of a weakening labor market. Although the continued and significant decline in the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits has ended in 2021, the current (September 2022) remains low (Figure 12).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c34f44b285d02365d82dbb2d3dc14ce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"652\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the whole, only one of the above four dimensions has been satisfied, and the relief of the tight job market in the United States is less than expected. The non-agricultural data in September will further strengthen the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve. As shown in Table 1, Fed officials are determined to fight inflation and do not see a recession as an inevitable outcome. Given that a tight labor market is a big driver behind high inflation, officials generally tolerate a rise in unemployment to 4% or higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b212099f382505e81c4768b52aa1412\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The slowdown of inflationary pressures requires weak economic data and signs of weakness to persist for some time. The easing of the tight labor market is less than expected, which means that the decline of wage growth is still slow. From this point of view, the possibility that the inflation in the service industry is less than expected is still high, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75bp in November is further increased. In our previous report, we also pointed out that the upside risk of policy interest rate is higher than the downside risk, given that the risk of unexpected upside in inflation is still high,<b>Therefore, the rate hike to 4.6% in 2023 shown by the Fed's dot plot in September may still be further upwardly revised.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d763a38a7e6e238b18a69f508a906a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why has the U.S. labor market been delayed to cool down after the sharp rate hike?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy has the U.S. labor market been delayed to cool down after the sharp rate hike?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-08 13:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. non-farm data in September 2022 exceeded expectations across the board: 263,000 new non-farm payrolls were added (Bloomberg consensus estimate of 250,000), the average monthly non-farm payrolls were as high as 420,000 from January to September, the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 3.5% (expected 3.7%), and the labor force participation rate dropped only slightly to 62.3%. With the job market still tight, and the year-on-year salary growth rate still at a high level of 5%, the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve's rate hike will be more firm. After the data was released, Federal Funds rate Futures predicted that the possibility of the Fed's rate hike of 75bp in November rose from 85.5% to 92%, and U.S. stocks turned down.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">the US Dollar Index</a>Straight up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35b200f9c9c7619075df1b95d958f0f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In just a few months from March to September, the Federal Reserve has a total rate hike of 300bp, but the cooling of the labor market has not arrived, mainly due to the lag of employment data. From the historical data, the response of new jobs in the United States to the rate hike of the Federal Reserve is \"passive\". rate hike can curb the upward trend of new non-farm jobs, but the reversal of this trend is often synchronized with the peak of the rate hike cycle (Figure 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2937acc49eaf91e7321476716332699\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Let's analyze the employment data in September from the industry perspective. Among them, the industries with the most significant growth are still leisure and hospitality industries and education and health services (Figure 5). Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 83,000 jobs in September, unchanged from the January-August average, with food service and drinking establishments alone increasing by 60,000. However, given the gap between employment in the leisure and hospitality industries and pre-pandemic levels, we expect that employment growth in the industry will remain strong during the year. Healthcare employment increased by 60,000 in September and has returned to February 2020 levels.<b>Despite the seasonal headwinds of the youth workforce returning to school, the number of non-farm new jobs in September was only slightly lower than in August, and the U.S. labor market remains strong.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed5885dd7c1e0fb8a097dd44a72cc43\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Since April, new non-farm employment has continued to exceed expectations, and although job vacancies have declined, they remain at a high level, which means that the process of slowing employment growth will be gradual. The U.S. labor market remains resilient, and the Atlanta Fed model shows that the average monthly number of new non-farm payrolls in the U.S. from January to August 2022 was much higher than the number of new non-farm payrolls needed under the target unemployment rate of 4% (Figure 6). There are signs that the U.S. economy is still strong, and the Atlanta Fed's forecast for the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of U.S. real GDP in the third quarter has been revised upward to 2.7% (Figure 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09f33e1575b4bdbe2f87178268ef5a9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>So, when will America's tight job market ease or even weaken? Observations can be made from four dimensions:</p><p>Dimension 1: The momentum of salary increase, if it continues to slow down, will release a positive signal to inflation. Private sector average hourly wage growth in the U.S. slowed to 5.0% year-over-year in September 2022 (5.2% in August), while smoothed annualized month-over-month growth (3-month moving average) fell to 4.4% (4.8% in August). However, the salary growth rate of the service industry remains high. As shown in Figure 8, the year-on-year salary growth rate of the leisure and hotel industry, which ranks first, is still about 8% from August to September, which is flat from July to August.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6a59779761943b363d85e6dfee4736\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 2: Mitigation on both sides of labor supply and demand, with important indicators including job vacancies and turnover rates. Since April 2022, the number of job openings and turnover rates in the United States have continued to decline, with job openings in the leisure accommodation industry, education and health services, and professional and business services decreasing by 0.5 to 1 percentage point in August compared to July (Figure 9-Figure 10). Although the supply and demand situation in the U.S. labor market has improved, and the easing demand for employment in the service sector is expected to bring salary growth down from high levels, job vacancies and turnover rates are still much higher than pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cef7b37269f942eda746728c0eea075\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 3: Stagnation of improvement in labor force participation.<b>We believe that the increase in labor force participation has basically peaked,</b>The increase in the labor force participation rate in August was due to the improvement in the participation of the youth population in the summer, which was a seasonal factor. Given that the employment rate of the golden age population has recovered to the pre-pandemic level, there is limited room for the follow-up labor participation rate to recover (Figure 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04724cc3bd14acea9c98044cb455b75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Dimension 4: Leading indicators The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time continues to rise, indicating a weak job market. The number of initial claims serves as high-frequency data, and the continued rise in this indicator usually precedes the steady decline in employment in the face of a weakening labor market. Although the continued and significant decline in the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits has ended in 2021, the current (September 2022) remains low (Figure 12).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c34f44b285d02365d82dbb2d3dc14ce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"652\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the whole, only one of the above four dimensions has been satisfied, and the relief of the tight job market in the United States is less than expected. The non-agricultural data in September will further strengthen the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve. As shown in Table 1, Fed officials are determined to fight inflation and do not see a recession as an inevitable outcome. Given that a tight labor market is a big driver behind high inflation, officials generally tolerate a rise in unemployment to 4% or higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b212099f382505e81c4768b52aa1412\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The slowdown of inflationary pressures requires weak economic data and signs of weakness to persist for some time. The easing of the tight labor market is less than expected, which means that the decline of wage growth is still slow. From this point of view, the possibility that the inflation in the service industry is less than expected is still high, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75bp in November is further increased. In our previous report, we also pointed out that the upside risk of policy interest rate is higher than the downside risk, given that the risk of unexpected upside in inflation is still high,<b>Therefore, the rate hike to 4.6% in 2023 shown by the Fed's dot plot in September may still be further upwardly revised.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d763a38a7e6e238b18a69f508a906a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671869\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53d71c62ddd4425ec8578b3c9c99de3","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671869","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273313719","content_text":"2022年9月美国非农数据全面超预期：新增非农就业26.3万人（彭博一致预期25万人），1至9月月均新增非农就业人数高达42万人，失业率下降0.2%至3.5%（预期3.7%），劳动力参与率仅略降至62.3%。就业市场仍紧俏，薪资同比增速仍居5%的高位下，美联储加息的鹰派态度将更为坚定。数据发布后，联邦基金利率期货预测11月美联储加息75bp的可能性由85.5%升至92%，美股转跌，美元指数直线拉升。在3-9月短短几个月的时间，美联储已经共计加息300bp，可是劳动力市场的降温却迟迟没有到来，主要原因在于就业数据的滞后性。从历史数据上看，美国新增就业对于美联储加息的反应是“钝化”的，加息可以抑制住新增非农就业数的上行趋势，但该趋势的逆转往往与加息周期的峰值同步（图3）。下面我们从行业维度来分析9月就业数据，其中增长最为显著的行业仍为休闲和酒店业以及教育和保健服务业（图5）。休闲和酒店业就业9月增加了8.3万个工作岗位，持平于1-8月的均值，其中仅食品服务和饮酒场所就业便增加6万人。不过鉴于休闲和酒店业就业人数与疫情前水平仍有差距，我们预计年内该行业的就业增长仍将维持强劲的态势。9月医疗保健就业人数增加6万人，已恢复至2020年2月的水平。尽管存在青年劳动力返校的季节性逆风因素，但9月非农新增就业数仅略低于8月，美国劳动力市场仍旧强劲。4月以来，新增非农就业持续超预期，尽管职位空缺有所下降，但仍处高位，这意味着就业增长放缓的过程将是渐进的。美国劳动力市场仍具备韧性，亚特兰大联储模型显示，2022年1-8月美国月均新增非农就业人数远高于目标失业率为4%下所需的新增非农就业人数（图6）。种种迹象显示着美国经济也仍旧强劲，亚特兰大联储对三季度美国实际GDP环比增速的预测已上修至2.7%（图7）。那么，美国紧俏的就业市场何时缓解甚至走弱？可以从四个维度进行观测：维度一：薪资上涨动能，若持续放缓将对通胀释放积极信号。2022年9月，美国私人行业平均时薪同比增速放缓至5.0%（8月为5.2%），而修匀后的年化环比增速（3个月移动平均）降至4.4%（8月为4.8%）。但服务业薪资增速仍维持高位，如图8所示，增速居首位的休闲和酒店业在8-9月薪资同比增速仍在8%左右，持平于7-8月。维度二：劳动力供需两侧的缓解状况，重要指标包括职位空缺和离职率。2022年4月以来，美国职位空缺数和离职率持续回落，8月休闲住宿业、教育和保健服务、专业和商业服务的职位空缺率较7月下降0.5至1个百分点（图9-图10）。尽管美国劳动力市场供需情况有所改善，服务业就业需求的缓解有望使得薪资增速从高位回落，但职位空缺和离职率仍远高于疫情前水平。维度三：劳动力参与率改善的停滞。我们认为劳动力参与率的提升已基本见顶，8月劳动力参与率的提升得益于暑期青年人口参与情况的好转，属于季节性因素，鉴于黄金年龄段人口的就业率已恢复至疫情前水平，后续劳动参与率回升空间有限（图11）。维度四：先行指标初次审请失业金人数持续上升，预示着就业市场疲弱。初次审请失业金人数作为高频数据，在劳动力市场走弱的情况下，该指标的持续上升通常领先于就业人数的稳步下降。尽管初次审请失业金人数持续大幅下降的趋势已经在2021年结束，但当前（2022年9月）仍然处于低位（图12）。总体来看，上述四个维度中只有一个得到了满足，美国紧俏就业市场的缓解程度不及预期，9月非农数据将进一步坚定美联储的鹰派态度。如表1所示，美联储官员对抗通胀的态度坚决，不认为经济衰退是必然结果，鉴于紧俏的劳动力市场是高通胀背后的一大推手，官员们普遍可以容忍失业率上升至4%或更高。而通胀压力的放缓需要疲弱的经济数据并且疲弱迹象持续一段时间。紧俏劳动力市场的缓解不及预期意味着薪资增速的下降仍是缓慢的，如此来看服务业通胀缓解不及预期的可能性仍较大，11月加息75bp的概率进一步加大。我们在此前的报告中也指出，鉴于通胀出现意外上行的风险仍较大，政策利率的上行风险高于下行风险，因而9月美联储点阵图显示的2023年加息至4.6%的情形，仍可能被进一步上修。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DOG":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".DJI":0.72,"MNQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".IXIC":0.69,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPY":0.69,"SH":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914656157,"gmtCreate":1665278393880,"gmtModify":1676537580462,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580606618017089","idStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914656157","repostId":"2273336343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9025209209,"gmtCreate":1653693896501,"gmtModify":1676535326539,"author":{"id":"3580606618017089","authorId":"3580606618017089","name":"hhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547181a55fcbccc02ca35be22b4cca16","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580606618017089","idStr":"3580606618017089"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9025209209","repostId":"1194051101","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194051101","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653661197,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194051101?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-27 22:19","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"U.S. new energy vehicle stocks rose broadly, Rivian rose nearly 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194051101","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月27日，美股新能车股普涨，Rivian、Lordstown Motors涨近7%，特斯拉涨超5%，法拉第未来、Lucid Group涨近4%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27th, U.S. new energy vehicle stocks rose generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors</a>Up nearly 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group</a>Up nearly 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0325c17e8ad89970eca04ba1c1fa8010\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. new energy vehicle stocks rose broadly, Rivian rose nearly 7%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-27 22:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 27th, U.S. new energy vehicle stocks rose generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIDE\">Lordstown Motors</a>Up nearly 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group</a>Up nearly 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0325c17e8ad89970eca04ba1c1fa8010\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a530a2a17bc301499c9e286759c5657e","relate_stocks":{"BK4555":"新能源车","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194051101","content_text":"5月27日，美股新能车股普涨，Rivian、Lordstown Motors涨近7%，特斯拉涨超5%，法拉第未来、Lucid Group涨近4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIDE":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"FFIE":0.9,"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3078,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}