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DavidLeeT

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- DavidLeeTDavidLeeT
  ·2023-08-01
  Hi there Nice to see you today
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- DavidLeeTDavidLeeT
  ·2023-01-25
  Slowly
  Opening | U.S. stocks collectively open low, Microsoft fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session
  道琼斯指数开盘下跌279.48点，跌幅0.83%，报33454.48点。
  Opening | U.S. stocks collectively open low, Microsoft fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session
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- DavidLeeTDavidLeeT
  ·2022-04-05
  $格林美(002340)$...
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- DavidLeeTDavidLeeT
  ·2022-03-10
  ..
  Where is crude oil price headed in the next stage?
  如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。我们讨论了当前原油市场经历的
  Where is crude oil price headed in the next stage?
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Azure, the cloud business, is slowing down, and the company expects this trend to continue in the coming quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6489561bf104fbba322153fcb0a0e129\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>open low fell 2%,<b>Tesla will report its earnings after the market today, and some analysts expect its net profit to hit a new low in nearly three years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193f64bddde69ce27ee39a2708ee134\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell by more than 3%, and both Q4 revenue and net profit fell short of expectations.</p><p>Abbott fell 2%, and Q4 revenue fell 12% to $10.1 billion, affected by declining demand for COVID-19 testing products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">NASDAQ OMX Exchange</a>It fell 7%, the biggest decline since March 2020, and fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>(AT&T) bucked the market and rose nearly 4%, beating market expectations with fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.61 per share.</p><p>Shopify bucked the market and rose more than 5% after the company said it would raise prices on some services in 2023.</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks fell more and rose less at the beginning of the session,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>up 0.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>down 0.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>down 0.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening | U.S. stocks collectively open low, Microsoft fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-25 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Wednesday, January 25th, the Dow Jones Index opened down 279.48 points, or 0.83%, at 33,454.48 points; The S&P 500 opened down 49.00 points, or 1.22%, at 3967.95; The Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 203.66 points, or 1.80%, at 11,130.61.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3303c0c34092357f18d49c6c81847b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Down more than 3%, Microsoft's revenue in the second fiscal quarter of 2023 was US$52.75 billion, up 2% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since 2016; Profit fell to $16.43 billion from $18.77 billion a year earlier, down 12% year-on-year. Azure, the cloud business, is slowing down, and the company expects this trend to continue in the coming quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6489561bf104fbba322153fcb0a0e129\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>open low fell 2%,<b>Tesla will report its earnings after the market today, and some analysts expect its net profit to hit a new low in nearly three years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2193f64bddde69ce27ee39a2708ee134\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">boeing</a>It fell by more than 3%, and both Q4 revenue and net profit fell short of expectations.</p><p>Abbott fell 2%, and Q4 revenue fell 12% to $10.1 billion, affected by declining demand for COVID-19 testing products.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">NASDAQ OMX Exchange</a>It fell 7%, the biggest decline since March 2020, and fourth-quarter results fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>(AT&T) bucked the market and rose nearly 4%, beating market expectations with fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.61 per share.</p><p>Shopify bucked the market and rose more than 5% after the company said it would raise prices on some services in 2023.</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks fell more and rose less at the beginning of the session,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>up 0.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>down 0.35%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>down 0.54%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108441041","content_text":"1月25日（周三），道琼斯指数开盘下跌279.48点，跌幅0.83%，报33454.48点；标普500指数开盘下跌49.00点，跌幅1.22%，报3967.95点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌203.66点，跌幅1.80%，报11130.61点。微软跌超3%，微软2023年第二财季收入为527.5亿美元，同比增长2%，创下2016年以来的最低增速；利润从上一年同期的187.7亿美元降至164.3亿美元，同比下滑12%。云业务Azure增速放缓，公司预计这种趋势可能在未来几个季度持续。特斯拉低开跌2%，特斯拉将于今日盘后公布财报，有分析师预计其净利润将创近3年新低。波音跌超3%，Q4营收和净利润均不及预期。雅培跌2%，受新冠测试产品需求下降的影响，Q4营收下滑12%至101亿美元。纳斯达克OMX交易所跌7%，创2020年3月以来最大跌幅，第四季度业绩不及预期。美国电话电报(AT&T)逆市涨近4%，第四季度调整后每股收益0.61美元，超出市场预期。Shopify逆市涨超5%，此前该公司表示2023年将提高部分服务的价格。热门中概股盘初阶段跌多涨少，阿里巴巴涨0.36%，拼多多跌0.35%，京东跌0.54%，小鹏汽车、蔚来、理想汽车跌超2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016184355,"gmtCreate":1649149002763,"gmtModify":1676534459353,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002340\">$格林美(002340)$</a>...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002340\">$格林美(002340)$</a>...","text":"$格林美(002340)$...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/637d8876e329a2cf71420438f1b7af1c","width":"1242","height":"1968"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016184355","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038476956,"gmtCreate":1646904897821,"gmtModify":1676534175374,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038476956","repostId":"1137319987","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137319987","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646904185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137319987?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-10 17:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Where is crude oil price headed in the next stage?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137319987","media":"宏观闻涛声","summary":"如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。我们讨论了当前原油市场经历的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where is crude oil price headed in the next stage?</b></p><p>In the current complex and changeable global environment, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices, the possible impact on inflation and interest rates, etc. based on geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure analysis. We discuss eight major geopolitical shocks experienced by the current crude oil market, including: the Cuba Crisis, the First Oil Crisis, the Second Oil Crisis, the Third Oil Crisis, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgia conflict, the Crimea crisis, and the current Ukraine conflict. At the same time, the global supply and demand pattern of crude oil is analyzed.</p><p><b>For the previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we believe that:</b></p><p>There are three main shock response types. In the first category, the oil price has risen significantly, reaching about 150%-200%. In the second category, the oil price fell back after rising on the monthly line, and the pullback/retracement range can reach about 40%-60%. The third category is the short-term fluctuation of oil prices, and the long-term impact is not significant.</p><p><b>For the current and next stage of global crude oil supply and demand pattern, we believe that:</b></p><p>At present, there is a gap between supply and demand of crude oil. Geopolitical game, industrial chain disturbance and potential sanctions have all affected the covering of this gap. The distribution of gap burden is uneven, and the process of gap repair is highly affected by the geopolitical situation.</p><p><b>Regarding the possible follow-up path of the impact of this conflict in Ukraine, we believe that:</b></p><p>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to drop significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</p><p>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressure and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rate are facing higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, the upward pressure of China's annual interest rate may be relatively weakened.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, for the next stage of crude oil price trend, we look forward to it according to scenarios, and give technical points: i) The current crude oil price is easy to go up but difficult to go down,</b>The whole is supported by geopolitical conflict and supply-demand gap;<b>ii) If the conflict can be effectively settled by April-May,</b>Then the crude oil price may still fall back to the lower range of 60-90 USD/barrel;<b>iii) If the conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, the crude oil price may rise to a high range of 160-190 USD/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) If the conflict continues to be more intense beyond May,</b>Then the crude oil price may rise to the historical record level of 190-230 USD/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key points of the Fibonacci technical side of the upward and downward crude oil price, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>1 Foreword: Where are crude oil prices headed?</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, the global crude oil price has continued to rise, and as of March 9, it has been pushed to the level of more than $120/barrel. We believe that the current rapid rise in crude oil price is mainly driven by the dual factors of geopolitical conflict and supply and demand gap, which is reasonable, but it also faces high volatility and high uncertainty.</p><p><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where is crude oil price headed in the next stage?</b>In the current complex and changeable global environment, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices, the possible impact on inflation and interest rates, etc. based on geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure analysis.</p><p><b>2 Historical geopolitical conflicts and crude oil price trend</b></p><p>This part considers the shock response mode of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" in history, and establishes the trend expectation framework for the current round of shock response mode of crude oil price based on the historical model.</p><p><b>2.1 Eight major geopolitical conflicts experienced by the current crude oil market</b></p><p>Considering the impact on the crude oil market and the intensity of geopolitical conflicts, the current crude oil market established after World War II has experienced at least eight significant geopolitical conflicts, namely: the Cuban crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgia conflict, the Crimea crisis, and the current Ukraine conflict.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73108c9a5c02abfc82423dbfe161291\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We briefly summarize previous geopolitical conflicts to provide the basis for our subsequent classification of the impact pattern of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\", mainly focusing on the duration, impact area, intensity of confrontation and resolution form of geopolitical conflicts.</p><p><b>(1) The Cuban Crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August-October 1962, lasting approximately 3 months.</p><p>Main affected countries/regions: the United States, the former Soviet Union, Cuba, affecting the Caribbean region, which is not the main global crude oil producing area.</p><p>Major forms of conflict/resolution: Missile and nuclear weapons deployment issues, the United States upgraded its combat readiness rating to level II, and resolved peacefully without open hot wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829b034b3db8ad9969e4b66be32a80a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The First Oil Crisis/The Fourth Middle East War</b></p><p>Primary outbreak phase/time: October 1973-March 1974, lasting approximately 6 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Egypt and other Arab countries in the Middle East, Israel, the United States and the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East and the world's most important crude oil producing area. OPEC announced an oil embargo on some countries in October 1973.</p><p>Main Conflict/Resolution Forms: Local wars with a large number of participating countries and high short-term intensity. The United States upgraded its combat readiness rating to Level III, and redrawn national borders and territories after hot wars.</p><p><b>(3) Second Oil Crisis/Iranian Revolution/Iran-Iraq War</b></p><p>Primary outbreak phase/time: January 1979-February 1981, lasting approximately 26 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iran, Iraq, the United States, the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East, the most important crude oil producing area in the world.</p><p>Primary forms of conflict/resolution: regional power conflicts, local wars of higher intensity, and continued hostilities after hot wars.</p><p><b>(4) Third Oil Crisis/Gulf War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 1990-March 1991, lasting approximately 8 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iraq, the United States and Kuwait, affecting the Middle East and the most important crude oil producing area in the world.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflict, short-term local war, the United States upgraded its combat readiness rating to level II, devastated Iraq at a slight cost, gained an overwhelming military advantage, and Iraq accepted the UN resolution to withdraw its troops.</p><p><b>(5) NATO Bombing Yugoslavia/Kosovo War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March-June 1999, lasting approximately 4 months.</p><p>Main affected countries/regions: Former Yugoslavia, United States, NATO, affecting the Balkans, and further affecting Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: Regional conflict, short-term local war, US-led NATO gaining an overwhelming military advantage, and the former Yugoslavia disintegrating after the war.</p><p><b>(6) Conflict in Georgia</b></p><p>Primary outbreak phase/time: August 2008, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Main affected countries/regions: Georgia, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Primary Conflict/Resolution Form: Short-term local conflict in which Russia gains an overwhelming military advantage, Russia declares recognition of parts of regional independence, and the US and NATO do not recognize it.</p><p><b>(7) Crimean crisis</b></p><p>Primary outbreak phase/time: March 2014, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Main affected countries/regions: Crimea, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Primary Conflict/Resolution Form: Short-term local turmoil, no large-scale military conflict, Russia announced recognition of parts of Russia joining Russia, United States and NATO did not recognize it.</p><p><b>(8) Conflict in Ukraine (as of 9 March 2022)</b></p><p>As of now, the main outbreak phase/time: February 2022-to date, still in military conflict.</p><p>Up to now, it mainly affects countries/regions: Ukraine, Russia, the United States and NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Up to now, the main forms of conflict/resolution: regional military conflicts and negotiations are ongoing at the same time, Russia has upgraded its strategic weapons readiness level to a special state, the United States has upgraded its readiness level to Level III, the United States and the European Union have announced sanctions such as banning some Russian institutions from using SWIFT system, and the United States has announced a ban on Russian crude oil and natural gas imports. However, up to now, Germany and other EU countries have not explicitly announced follow-up.</p><p><b>2.2 Crude oil price trend under geopolitical conflict</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis of the duration of conflict, the affected area, the intensity of confrontation and the form of resolution, when considering the trend of crude oil prices in the same period and the following 24 months, we believe that the impact response trend of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" can be mainly divided into three categories:</p><p><b>(1) In the first category, the oil price has risen significantly, and the cumulative upward trend can reach about 150%-200%.</b>Typical representatives are the first and second oil crises and NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. Typically, there are high-intensity military conflicts, or they escalate into local wars, and the conflict lasts for at least 4 months. The conflict-affected areas involve crude oil supply. At the same time, some cases of embargoes by crude oil exporting countries push up oil prices.</p><p><b>(2) In the second category, the oil price began to fall within 1-3 months after the outbreak of the incident, and then dropped significantly, with a cumulative drop of about 40%-60%.</b>Typical representatives are the third oil crisis, the Georgian conflict and the Crimean crisis. The typical characteristics are that the incident has been reconciled in stages relatively quickly, or one party to the military conflict has an overwhelming advantage, or the intensity is overall controllable. At the same time, some currency-leading countries have stabilized oil prices.</p><p><b>(3) The third category, although the oil price has declined, it has not fluctuated greatly, and the long-term impact is not significant. The typical representative is the Cuban crisis.</b>The typical characteristics are that the incident is sudden, and although the short-term pressure is large, it is solved relatively quickly (within one month). The main crude oil producing areas that did not occur did not escalate into a hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8abded75c09dda6d29b0c3a627f31c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combining the three types, the corresponding \"geopolitical shock-oil price response\" trend is mapped to the current Ukrainian time in equal proportion, as shown in the trends of different scenarios in Figure 5. We believe that:</b></p><p><b>(1) The current trend of crude oil prices has initially deviated from the historical trend pattern of \"getting a short-term quick solution\", and is showing continued upward pressure.</b>Historically, the three main \"quick resolution-oil price drop\" modes, namely the Cuban crisis in Scenario 0, the conflict in Georgia in Scenario 5 and the Crimean crisis in Scenario 6, have all deviated from the current crude oil price trend to some extent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of oil prices in the next stage, according to the historical model, highly depends on whether reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, that is, from March to May.</b>Historically, if reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, it is possible to get out of the similar trend of the third oil crisis in Scenario 3. The oil price has gradually fallen from June, vomiting back the previous increase.</p><p><b>(3) According to the historical model, if this conflict cannot be reconciled by May at the latest, the oil price will likely increase significantly by about 100%-200%.</b>That is, referring to the historical Scenario 1, the first oil crisis, Scenario 2, the second oil crisis and Scenario 4, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, when mapped to the current Ukraine shock, the oil price will likely rise above 160 USD/barrel in mid-2022 and rise to 190-230 USD/barrel at the end of the year.</p><p><b>(4) At the same time, we calculated the Fibonacci quantile based on the fluctuation amplitude of previous shock response in history, and converted it into the corresponding technical pressure resistance level of this round, which is as follows:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea70ca6182eb668ba0d534bbcf7652c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3 Current crude oil supply and demand pattern and possible impact of Russian crude oil embargo</b></p><p>After examining the geopolitical shock response of crude oil prices in the previous section, this section examines the current global crude oil supply and demand fundamentals and the possible crude oil market impact of Russia, an important player in the geopolitical conflict.</p><p><b>3.1 Crude oil supply: relatively insufficient</b></p><p>At present, examining the global total supply of crude oil, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The supply side as a whole has not fully recovered.</b>From the perspective of global daily crude oil production, the current global total supply is still somewhat lower than the level before the COVID-19 epidemic in 2019.</p><p><b>(2) Russia is an important crude oil producer, and its recent situation has brought high uncertainty to future supply.</b>In terms of global production share, Russia was approximately 11.4%, Iran was approximately 3.6%, and the United States was approximately 20.3% at the end of 2021.</p><p><b>(3) The United States has basically achieved self-sufficiency in crude oil, and its subsequent crude oil policy brings high uncertainty to future supply.</b>As of the end of 2021, the U.S. self-owned crude oil production exceeded 90% of the domestic crude oil consumption, and the self-sufficiency rate of U.S. crude oil consumption continued to increase since it rose above 50% for the first time in 2012.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d39c78642295ae419afce2fc3bf7807\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Crude Oil Demand: Gaps and Inventory Downside</b></p><p>At present, examining the global crude oil demand, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) Demand exceeds supply, providing fundamental support for the upward trend of oil prices.</b>Since 2021, global aggregate demand has continued to exceed aggregate supply, and the duration and magnitude of the gap has reached or approached the historical record level. According to past experience, during the previous period of demand exceeding and supply gap, the crude oil price was dominated by the above.</p><p><b>(2) The impact of Ukraine may further increase the current misalignment of crude oil supply and demand.</b>In this conflict in Ukraine, the short-term impact mainly affects the crude oil production side, superimposing the disturbance of the early industrial chain, and bringing further imbalance pressure between supply and demand in the short term. However, it should also be noted that with the rise of oil prices, when the potential supply promotion and demand suppression effects can bring the gap to cover needs follow-up observation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15988b0a0859f2d0fd2b47d960a2ed4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) The low level of crude oil inventory is obvious.</b>Most of the inventories of major crude oil consuming countries are in a state of depletion and low inventory, which further pushes up the demand for replenishment of crude oil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946fa6e3a5e32bd7965cfa7ced73789a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 Russia's main trade patterns</b></p><p><b>(1) The composition of Russia's export products is concentrated in bulk commodities such as crude oil</b></p><p>Russia's exports are mainly commodities, and it is an important exporter of crude oil, natural gas, aluminum and steel and other metals, wheat, fertilizer and other fields. According to the export amount, the top 15 exports are: 1~5: crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, machinery and tools, and diesel oil; 6-10: liquid fuel, iron metal, coal, raw aluminum and semi-finished carbon steel; 11-15: Wheat and mixed wheat, flat carbon steel, processed wood, mixed fertilizer, inorganic nitrogen fertilizer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b2df830c36875d2bd3fadf0218941ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's trade is mainly in Europe and Asia</b></p><p>As shown in Figures 12 and 13, as of the end of 2021: China and Germany are the trading partners with the highest share of Russia, accounting for 17.9% and 7.3% of Russia's total import and export trade, respectively; The United States and the United Kingdom, accounting for less than 5% of Russia's net export trade, accounted for 4.4% and 3.4% respectively; The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the European Union (EU) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are Russia's three main trading partners, that is, Russia's trade exchanges are mainly in Europe and Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0037bc51640a5aeeeb0204be0ea9115d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.4 Impact of possible sanctions on Russian crude oil exports</b></p><p>On March 9th, Beijing time, the Associated Press reported that U.S. President Joe Biden announced that the United States would be banned from importing Russian crude oil and natural gas. As of 14.00 pm, the United Kingdom said that it would consider following up, while Germany and other continental European countries have not made a clear statement.</p><p><b>(1) It is more expensive for EU countries such as Germany and France to join the crude oil embargo compared with the United States and Britain</b></p><p>From the perspective of crude oil self-sufficiency rate, the crude oil self-sufficiency rate of the United States and the United Kingdom is about 90%. If production is further expanded, the self-sufficiency rate of crude oil in the United Kingdom has been higher than 100% for a long time in history. At present, the production of shale oil in the United States is still lower than the level before the COVID-19 epidemic in 2019, and there is some room for production increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596863f0c6bc489538603d9545b511a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's crude oil exports are large, such as the embargo, which will have a significant short-term impact on the market. However, from the perspective of global total production capacity, it is still possible for the United States to stabilize the supply gap regardless of geopolitical factors and transportation costs.</b></p><p>At present, Russia's crude oil output is about 11 million barrels per day, and its export scale is about 4-7 million barrels per day. Regardless of the total output or export volume, its share of global crude oil supply or export is about 11%. Under the most extreme assumption, if there is a complete embargo, the global daily consumption of crude oil will increase by 4-7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4.5%-7.9% of the global total daily consumption of crude oil.</p><p>At present, the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, which are still sanctioned by the United States, are about 1.5-2 million barrels per day and 2-2.5 million barrels per day lower than those before the sanctions, respectively. On the Saudi side, crude oil exports are still about 1 million barrels per day lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, its own crude oil exports have risen from less than 600,000 barrels per day in 2016 to more than 3 million barrels per day at present, and there is still room for increasing production.</p><p>However, it should still be noted that the impact distribution of potential crude oil embargoes is uneven. Compared with Britain and the United States, continental European countries such as Germany and France will bear more potential risks and pressures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266aa2ba8a612e5bfcfae562030691c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4 Summary and Outlook</b></p><p>In the last part of this paper, we summarize the potential market influence patterns and laws of \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, and prospects the possible subsequent crude oil price trends and their potential derivative impacts based on the current situation.</p><p><b>4.1 Possible market patterns after \"geo-crude oil\" shocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fcc254e66fe9f0308cf7c2503d5914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As shown in Chart 18, when reviewing the market patterns after previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The trend of crude oil prices after the shock is highly correlated with the rhythm of the US rate hike.</b>Furthermore, due to the higher frequency attribute of crude oil price compared with the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve, crude oil price can be regarded as a forward-looking indicator of interest rate decision in actual operation-from the perspective of geopolitical shock, when the shock occurs, the oil price trend within the annual line is highly consistent with the adjustment direction of target interest rate.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of 10Y Treasury Bond yield in the United States after the impact is highly correlated with the trend of crude oil prices.</b>After excluding the short-term disturbances at the daily level such as risk aversion, the monthly trend of crude oil price is highly consistent with the trend of yield in the year after the impact.</p><p><b>(3) In the year or the next year when most conflicts occurred, the economic growth rate of the United States declined or even fell into the recession range.</b>Furthermore, when looking back at global economic growth in the year of the conflict and the following year, most of the time, most countries and regions experienced less real growth than expected prior to the conflict, but it should be noted that the distribution of this downward adjustment is often uneven-the parties involved in the conflict and the geographical economies in which they are located tend to be more significantly downward revised, followed by economic and trade related parties and, again, other less affected countries and regions.</p><p><b>4.2 Possible subsequent developments of the current \"geo-crude oil\" shock in Ukraine</b></p><p><b>Considering the influence pattern of previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we expect the following path of the possible follow-up development path of the current conflict in Ukraine and the impact of events:</b></p><p><b>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to drop significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</b>In this conflict, there are still significant differences between Russia's main demands and the U.S. position. At present, with the increasing duration of regional military conflicts, oil prices are far away from the mode of \"short-term conflict-oil price drop\". If reconciliation cannot be achieved in the next 1-3 months, the probability of shifting to the mode of \"continuous conflict-oil price upward\" is on the rise. At the same time, different from the past situation, this time, the United States is imposing all-round sanctions and embargoes on Russia's finance, trade, science and technology and other fields, relying on its dominant position in global finance, trade and technology. This sanction and confrontation has further affected the global industrial chain and production system, and interfered with the global economic growth and inflation environment.</p><p><b>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressure and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rate are facing higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, the upward pressure of China's annual interest rate may be relatively weakened.</b>Due to the disruption of the global industrial chain by the conflict, regardless of whether the crude oil price goes up or not, the conflict itself is more likely to weaken the local and global economic growth within 1-2 years. As the world's largest producer, China will face a relatively small inflation risk. Due to the higher uncertainty of the external environment, the policy will pay more attention to \"stability means progress\" and \"taking me first\", reduce the consideration of the actual financing cost of enterprises and the stable RMB currency value, and provide better monetary policy and interest rate space.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, returning to the trend of crude oil prices, we believe that: i) the current crude oil price is easy to go up but difficult to go down,</b>The whole is supported by geopolitical conflict and supply-demand gap;<b>ii) If the conflict can be effectively settled by April-May,</b>Then the crude oil price may still fall back to the lower range of 60-90 USD/barrel;<b>iii) If the conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, the crude oil price may rise to a high range of 160-190 USD/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) If the conflict continues to be more intense beyond May,</b>Then the crude oil price may rise to the historical record level of 190-230 USD/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key points of the Fibonacci technical side of the upward and downward crude oil price, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitics, economy, inflation, overseas uncertainty and pandemic risk</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1646904227423","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where is crude oil price headed in the next stage?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere is crude oil price headed in the next stage?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">宏观闻涛声</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-10 17:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where is crude oil price headed in the next stage?</b></p><p>In the current complex and changeable global environment, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices, the possible impact on inflation and interest rates, etc. based on geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure analysis. We discuss eight major geopolitical shocks experienced by the current crude oil market, including: the Cuba Crisis, the First Oil Crisis, the Second Oil Crisis, the Third Oil Crisis, the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgia conflict, the Crimea crisis, and the current Ukraine conflict. At the same time, the global supply and demand pattern of crude oil is analyzed.</p><p><b>For the previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we believe that:</b></p><p>There are three main shock response types. In the first category, the oil price has risen significantly, reaching about 150%-200%. In the second category, the oil price fell back after rising on the monthly line, and the pullback/retracement range can reach about 40%-60%. The third category is the short-term fluctuation of oil prices, and the long-term impact is not significant.</p><p><b>For the current and next stage of global crude oil supply and demand pattern, we believe that:</b></p><p>At present, there is a gap between supply and demand of crude oil. Geopolitical game, industrial chain disturbance and potential sanctions have all affected the covering of this gap. The distribution of gap burden is uneven, and the process of gap repair is highly affected by the geopolitical situation.</p><p><b>Regarding the possible follow-up path of the impact of this conflict in Ukraine, we believe that:</b></p><p>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to drop significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</p><p>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressure and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rate are facing higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, the upward pressure of China's annual interest rate may be relatively weakened.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, for the next stage of crude oil price trend, we look forward to it according to scenarios, and give technical points: i) The current crude oil price is easy to go up but difficult to go down,</b>The whole is supported by geopolitical conflict and supply-demand gap;<b>ii) If the conflict can be effectively settled by April-May,</b>Then the crude oil price may still fall back to the lower range of 60-90 USD/barrel;<b>iii) If the conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, the crude oil price may rise to a high range of 160-190 USD/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) If the conflict continues to be more intense beyond May,</b>Then the crude oil price may rise to the historical record level of 190-230 USD/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key points of the Fibonacci technical side of the upward and downward crude oil price, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>1 Foreword: Where are crude oil prices headed?</b></p><p>Since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, the global crude oil price has continued to rise, and as of March 9, it has been pushed to the level of more than $120/barrel. We believe that the current rapid rise in crude oil price is mainly driven by the dual factors of geopolitical conflict and supply and demand gap, which is reasonable, but it also faces high volatility and high uncertainty.</p><p><b>How to understand the current crude oil price trend? Where is crude oil price headed in the next stage?</b>In the current complex and changeable global environment, we look forward to the potential trend of crude oil prices, the possible impact on inflation and interest rates, etc. based on geopolitical conflicts and supply and demand structure analysis.</p><p><b>2 Historical geopolitical conflicts and crude oil price trend</b></p><p>This part considers the shock response mode of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" in history, and establishes the trend expectation framework for the current round of shock response mode of crude oil price based on the historical model.</p><p><b>2.1 Eight major geopolitical conflicts experienced by the current crude oil market</b></p><p>Considering the impact on the crude oil market and the intensity of geopolitical conflicts, the current crude oil market established after World War II has experienced at least eight significant geopolitical conflicts, namely: the Cuban crisis, the first oil crisis, the second oil crisis, the third oil crisis, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, the Georgia conflict, the Crimea crisis, and the current Ukraine conflict.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73108c9a5c02abfc82423dbfe161291\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We briefly summarize previous geopolitical conflicts to provide the basis for our subsequent classification of the impact pattern of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\", mainly focusing on the duration, impact area, intensity of confrontation and resolution form of geopolitical conflicts.</p><p><b>(1) The Cuban Crisis</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August-October 1962, lasting approximately 3 months.</p><p>Main affected countries/regions: the United States, the former Soviet Union, Cuba, affecting the Caribbean region, which is not the main global crude oil producing area.</p><p>Major forms of conflict/resolution: Missile and nuclear weapons deployment issues, the United States upgraded its combat readiness rating to level II, and resolved peacefully without open hot wars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829b034b3db8ad9969e4b66be32a80a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) The First Oil Crisis/The Fourth Middle East War</b></p><p>Primary outbreak phase/time: October 1973-March 1974, lasting approximately 6 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Egypt and other Arab countries in the Middle East, Israel, the United States and the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East and the world's most important crude oil producing area. OPEC announced an oil embargo on some countries in October 1973.</p><p>Main Conflict/Resolution Forms: Local wars with a large number of participating countries and high short-term intensity. The United States upgraded its combat readiness rating to Level III, and redrawn national borders and territories after hot wars.</p><p><b>(3) Second Oil Crisis/Iranian Revolution/Iran-Iraq War</b></p><p>Primary outbreak phase/time: January 1979-February 1981, lasting approximately 26 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iran, Iraq, the United States, the former Soviet Union, affecting the Middle East, the most important crude oil producing area in the world.</p><p>Primary forms of conflict/resolution: regional power conflicts, local wars of higher intensity, and continued hostilities after hot wars.</p><p><b>(4) Third Oil Crisis/Gulf War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: August 1990-March 1991, lasting approximately 8 months.</p><p>Main countries/regions affected: Iraq, the United States and Kuwait, affecting the Middle East and the most important crude oil producing area in the world.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: regional conflict, short-term local war, the United States upgraded its combat readiness rating to level II, devastated Iraq at a slight cost, gained an overwhelming military advantage, and Iraq accepted the UN resolution to withdraw its troops.</p><p><b>(5) NATO Bombing Yugoslavia/Kosovo War</b></p><p>Main outbreak phase/time: March-June 1999, lasting approximately 4 months.</p><p>Main affected countries/regions: Former Yugoslavia, United States, NATO, affecting the Balkans, and further affecting Central and Eastern Europe.</p><p>Main forms of conflict/resolution: Regional conflict, short-term local war, US-led NATO gaining an overwhelming military advantage, and the former Yugoslavia disintegrating after the war.</p><p><b>(6) Conflict in Georgia</b></p><p>Primary outbreak phase/time: August 2008, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Main affected countries/regions: Georgia, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Primary Conflict/Resolution Form: Short-term local conflict in which Russia gains an overwhelming military advantage, Russia declares recognition of parts of regional independence, and the US and NATO do not recognize it.</p><p><b>(7) Crimean crisis</b></p><p>Primary outbreak phase/time: March 2014, lasting approximately 1 month.</p><p>Main affected countries/regions: Crimea, Russia, the United States, NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Primary Conflict/Resolution Form: Short-term local turmoil, no large-scale military conflict, Russia announced recognition of parts of Russia joining Russia, United States and NATO did not recognize it.</p><p><b>(8) Conflict in Ukraine (as of 9 March 2022)</b></p><p>As of now, the main outbreak phase/time: February 2022-to date, still in military conflict.</p><p>Up to now, it mainly affects countries/regions: Ukraine, Russia, the United States and NATO, affecting Eastern Europe and the \"NATO-Russia\" border issue.</p><p>Up to now, the main forms of conflict/resolution: regional military conflicts and negotiations are ongoing at the same time, Russia has upgraded its strategic weapons readiness level to a special state, the United States has upgraded its readiness level to Level III, the United States and the European Union have announced sanctions such as banning some Russian institutions from using SWIFT system, and the United States has announced a ban on Russian crude oil and natural gas imports. However, up to now, Germany and other EU countries have not explicitly announced follow-up.</p><p><b>2.2 Crude oil price trend under geopolitical conflict</b></p><p>Based on the above analysis of the duration of conflict, the affected area, the intensity of confrontation and the form of resolution, when considering the trend of crude oil prices in the same period and the following 24 months, we believe that the impact response trend of \"geopolitical conflict-crude oil price\" can be mainly divided into three categories:</p><p><b>(1) In the first category, the oil price has risen significantly, and the cumulative upward trend can reach about 150%-200%.</b>Typical representatives are the first and second oil crises and NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia. Typically, there are high-intensity military conflicts, or they escalate into local wars, and the conflict lasts for at least 4 months. The conflict-affected areas involve crude oil supply. At the same time, some cases of embargoes by crude oil exporting countries push up oil prices.</p><p><b>(2) In the second category, the oil price began to fall within 1-3 months after the outbreak of the incident, and then dropped significantly, with a cumulative drop of about 40%-60%.</b>Typical representatives are the third oil crisis, the Georgian conflict and the Crimean crisis. The typical characteristics are that the incident has been reconciled in stages relatively quickly, or one party to the military conflict has an overwhelming advantage, or the intensity is overall controllable. At the same time, some currency-leading countries have stabilized oil prices.</p><p><b>(3) The third category, although the oil price has declined, it has not fluctuated greatly, and the long-term impact is not significant. The typical representative is the Cuban crisis.</b>The typical characteristics are that the incident is sudden, and although the short-term pressure is large, it is solved relatively quickly (within one month). The main crude oil producing areas that did not occur did not escalate into a hot war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8abded75c09dda6d29b0c3a627f31c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Combining the three types, the corresponding \"geopolitical shock-oil price response\" trend is mapped to the current Ukrainian time in equal proportion, as shown in the trends of different scenarios in Figure 5. We believe that:</b></p><p><b>(1) The current trend of crude oil prices has initially deviated from the historical trend pattern of \"getting a short-term quick solution\", and is showing continued upward pressure.</b>Historically, the three main \"quick resolution-oil price drop\" modes, namely the Cuban crisis in Scenario 0, the conflict in Georgia in Scenario 5 and the Crimean crisis in Scenario 6, have all deviated from the current crude oil price trend to some extent.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of oil prices in the next stage, according to the historical model, highly depends on whether reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, that is, from March to May.</b>Historically, if reconciliation can be achieved within 3-4 months, it is possible to get out of the similar trend of the third oil crisis in Scenario 3. The oil price has gradually fallen from June, vomiting back the previous increase.</p><p><b>(3) According to the historical model, if this conflict cannot be reconciled by May at the latest, the oil price will likely increase significantly by about 100%-200%.</b>That is, referring to the historical Scenario 1, the first oil crisis, Scenario 2, the second oil crisis and Scenario 4, NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia, when mapped to the current Ukraine shock, the oil price will likely rise above 160 USD/barrel in mid-2022 and rise to 190-230 USD/barrel at the end of the year.</p><p><b>(4) At the same time, we calculated the Fibonacci quantile based on the fluctuation amplitude of previous shock response in history, and converted it into the corresponding technical pressure resistance level of this round, which is as follows:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea70ca6182eb668ba0d534bbcf7652c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3 Current crude oil supply and demand pattern and possible impact of Russian crude oil embargo</b></p><p>After examining the geopolitical shock response of crude oil prices in the previous section, this section examines the current global crude oil supply and demand fundamentals and the possible crude oil market impact of Russia, an important player in the geopolitical conflict.</p><p><b>3.1 Crude oil supply: relatively insufficient</b></p><p>At present, examining the global total supply of crude oil, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The supply side as a whole has not fully recovered.</b>From the perspective of global daily crude oil production, the current global total supply is still somewhat lower than the level before the COVID-19 epidemic in 2019.</p><p><b>(2) Russia is an important crude oil producer, and its recent situation has brought high uncertainty to future supply.</b>In terms of global production share, Russia was approximately 11.4%, Iran was approximately 3.6%, and the United States was approximately 20.3% at the end of 2021.</p><p><b>(3) The United States has basically achieved self-sufficiency in crude oil, and its subsequent crude oil policy brings high uncertainty to future supply.</b>As of the end of 2021, the U.S. self-owned crude oil production exceeded 90% of the domestic crude oil consumption, and the self-sufficiency rate of U.S. crude oil consumption continued to increase since it rose above 50% for the first time in 2012.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d39c78642295ae419afce2fc3bf7807\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2 Crude Oil Demand: Gaps and Inventory Downside</b></p><p>At present, examining the global crude oil demand, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) Demand exceeds supply, providing fundamental support for the upward trend of oil prices.</b>Since 2021, global aggregate demand has continued to exceed aggregate supply, and the duration and magnitude of the gap has reached or approached the historical record level. According to past experience, during the previous period of demand exceeding and supply gap, the crude oil price was dominated by the above.</p><p><b>(2) The impact of Ukraine may further increase the current misalignment of crude oil supply and demand.</b>In this conflict in Ukraine, the short-term impact mainly affects the crude oil production side, superimposing the disturbance of the early industrial chain, and bringing further imbalance pressure between supply and demand in the short term. However, it should also be noted that with the rise of oil prices, when the potential supply promotion and demand suppression effects can bring the gap to cover needs follow-up observation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15988b0a0859f2d0fd2b47d960a2ed4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(3) The low level of crude oil inventory is obvious.</b>Most of the inventories of major crude oil consuming countries are in a state of depletion and low inventory, which further pushes up the demand for replenishment of crude oil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946fa6e3a5e32bd7965cfa7ced73789a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.3 Russia's main trade patterns</b></p><p><b>(1) The composition of Russia's export products is concentrated in bulk commodities such as crude oil</b></p><p>Russia's exports are mainly commodities, and it is an important exporter of crude oil, natural gas, aluminum and steel and other metals, wheat, fertilizer and other fields. According to the export amount, the top 15 exports are: 1~5: crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, machinery and tools, and diesel oil; 6-10: liquid fuel, iron metal, coal, raw aluminum and semi-finished carbon steel; 11-15: Wheat and mixed wheat, flat carbon steel, processed wood, mixed fertilizer, inorganic nitrogen fertilizer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b2df830c36875d2bd3fadf0218941ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's trade is mainly in Europe and Asia</b></p><p>As shown in Figures 12 and 13, as of the end of 2021: China and Germany are the trading partners with the highest share of Russia, accounting for 17.9% and 7.3% of Russia's total import and export trade, respectively; The United States and the United Kingdom, accounting for less than 5% of Russia's net export trade, accounted for 4.4% and 3.4% respectively; The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the European Union (EU) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are Russia's three main trading partners, that is, Russia's trade exchanges are mainly in Europe and Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0037bc51640a5aeeeb0204be0ea9115d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.4 Impact of possible sanctions on Russian crude oil exports</b></p><p>On March 9th, Beijing time, the Associated Press reported that U.S. President Joe Biden announced that the United States would be banned from importing Russian crude oil and natural gas. As of 14.00 pm, the United Kingdom said that it would consider following up, while Germany and other continental European countries have not made a clear statement.</p><p><b>(1) It is more expensive for EU countries such as Germany and France to join the crude oil embargo compared with the United States and Britain</b></p><p>From the perspective of crude oil self-sufficiency rate, the crude oil self-sufficiency rate of the United States and the United Kingdom is about 90%. If production is further expanded, the self-sufficiency rate of crude oil in the United Kingdom has been higher than 100% for a long time in history. At present, the production of shale oil in the United States is still lower than the level before the COVID-19 epidemic in 2019, and there is some room for production increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596863f0c6bc489538603d9545b511a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(2) Russia's crude oil exports are large, such as the embargo, which will have a significant short-term impact on the market. However, from the perspective of global total production capacity, it is still possible for the United States to stabilize the supply gap regardless of geopolitical factors and transportation costs.</b></p><p>At present, Russia's crude oil output is about 11 million barrels per day, and its export scale is about 4-7 million barrels per day. Regardless of the total output or export volume, its share of global crude oil supply or export is about 11%. Under the most extreme assumption, if there is a complete embargo, the global daily consumption of crude oil will increase by 4-7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4.5%-7.9% of the global total daily consumption of crude oil.</p><p>At present, the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, which are still sanctioned by the United States, are about 1.5-2 million barrels per day and 2-2.5 million barrels per day lower than those before the sanctions, respectively. On the Saudi side, crude oil exports are still about 1 million barrels per day lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, its own crude oil exports have risen from less than 600,000 barrels per day in 2016 to more than 3 million barrels per day at present, and there is still room for increasing production.</p><p>However, it should still be noted that the impact distribution of potential crude oil embargoes is uneven. Compared with Britain and the United States, continental European countries such as Germany and France will bear more potential risks and pressures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/266aa2ba8a612e5bfcfae562030691c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4 Summary and Outlook</b></p><p>In the last part of this paper, we summarize the potential market influence patterns and laws of \"geopolitical-crude oil\" shocks, and prospects the possible subsequent crude oil price trends and their potential derivative impacts based on the current situation.</p><p><b>4.1 Possible market patterns after \"geo-crude oil\" shocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fcc254e66fe9f0308cf7c2503d5914\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As shown in Chart 18, when reviewing the market patterns after previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we can find that:</p><p><b>(1) The trend of crude oil prices after the shock is highly correlated with the rhythm of the US rate hike.</b>Furthermore, due to the higher frequency attribute of crude oil price compared with the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve, crude oil price can be regarded as a forward-looking indicator of interest rate decision in actual operation-from the perspective of geopolitical shock, when the shock occurs, the oil price trend within the annual line is highly consistent with the adjustment direction of target interest rate.</p><p><b>(2) The trend of 10Y Treasury Bond yield in the United States after the impact is highly correlated with the trend of crude oil prices.</b>After excluding the short-term disturbances at the daily level such as risk aversion, the monthly trend of crude oil price is highly consistent with the trend of yield in the year after the impact.</p><p><b>(3) In the year or the next year when most conflicts occurred, the economic growth rate of the United States declined or even fell into the recession range.</b>Furthermore, when looking back at global economic growth in the year of the conflict and the following year, most of the time, most countries and regions experienced less real growth than expected prior to the conflict, but it should be noted that the distribution of this downward adjustment is often uneven-the parties involved in the conflict and the geographical economies in which they are located tend to be more significantly downward revised, followed by economic and trade related parties and, again, other less affected countries and regions.</p><p><b>4.2 Possible subsequent developments of the current \"geo-crude oil\" shock in Ukraine</b></p><p><b>Considering the influence pattern of previous \"geo-crude oil\" shocks, we expect the following path of the possible follow-up development path of the current conflict in Ukraine and the impact of events:</b></p><p><b>(1) Until the conflict is substantially resolved, it is difficult for oil prices to drop significantly and continue to face upward pressure, which increases the recent inflation risk in the world, especially in the United States.</b>In this conflict, there are still significant differences between Russia's main demands and the U.S. position. At present, with the increasing duration of regional military conflicts, oil prices are far away from the mode of \"short-term conflict-oil price drop\". If reconciliation cannot be achieved in the next 1-3 months, the probability of shifting to the mode of \"continuous conflict-oil price upward\" is on the rise. At the same time, different from the past situation, this time, the United States is imposing all-round sanctions and embargoes on Russia's finance, trade, science and technology and other fields, relying on its dominant position in global finance, trade and technology. This sanction and confrontation has further affected the global industrial chain and production system, and interfered with the global economic growth and inflation environment.</p><p><b>(2) Although we expect the world to face higher inflationary pressure and economic risks, it does not mean that China's inflation and interest rate are facing higher upward risks in the same proportion. In fact, the upward pressure of China's annual interest rate may be relatively weakened.</b>Due to the disruption of the global industrial chain by the conflict, regardless of whether the crude oil price goes up or not, the conflict itself is more likely to weaken the local and global economic growth within 1-2 years. As the world's largest producer, China will face a relatively small inflation risk. Due to the higher uncertainty of the external environment, the policy will pay more attention to \"stability means progress\" and \"taking me first\", reduce the consideration of the actual financing cost of enterprises and the stable RMB currency value, and provide better monetary policy and interest rate space.</p><p><b>(3) Finally, returning to the trend of crude oil prices, we believe that: i) the current crude oil price is easy to go up but difficult to go down,</b>The whole is supported by geopolitical conflict and supply-demand gap;<b>ii) If the conflict can be effectively settled by April-May,</b>Then the crude oil price may still fall back to the lower range of 60-90 USD/barrel;<b>iii) If the conflict was partially settled around May,</b>For example, if only military operations slow down, the crude oil price may rise to a high range of 160-190 USD/barrel at the annual level;<b>iv) If the conflict continues to be more intense beyond May,</b>Then the crude oil price may rise to the historical record level of 190-230 USD/barrel at the annual level;<b>v) Regardless of the trend, the key points of the Fibonacci technical side of the upward and downward crude oil price, from low to high, are:</b>$24.1/barrel, $63.7/barrel, $88.1/barrel, $127.7/barrel, $159.7/barrel, $191.7/barrel, $231.3/barrel, $255.7/barrel, and $295.3/barrel.</p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>Geopolitics, economy, inflation, overseas uncertainty and pandemic risk</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t1KM8XJ5VQ_rhYl-p6SfcA\">宏观闻涛声</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t1KM8XJ5VQ_rhYl-p6SfcA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137319987","content_text":"如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。我们讨论了当前原油市场经历的八次主要地缘冲击，包括：古巴危机、第一次石油危机、第二次石油危机、第三次石油危机，北约轰炸南联盟、格鲁吉亚冲突、克里米亚危机，和当前的乌克兰冲突。同时，对全球原油供需格局进行了分析。对于历次“地缘-原油”冲击，我们认为：主要有三种冲击响应类型。第一类，油价显著上行，幅度可达150%-200%左右。第二类，油价月线上行后回落，回撤幅度可达40%-60%左右。第三类，油价短线波动，长期影响不显著。对于当前和下一阶段全球原油供需格局，我们认为：当前原油存在供需缺口，地缘博弈、产业链扰动和潜在的制裁都影响了这一缺口的回补，缺口负担的分布是不均的，缺口修复的进程高度受地缘形势影响。对于此次乌克兰冲突冲击的可能后续发展路径，我们认为：（1）在冲突得到实质解决前，油价难以显著回落、持续面临上行压力，这增大了全球、尤其是美国的近期通胀风险。（2）虽然我们预计全球或将面临更高的通胀压力和经济风险，但并不意味着我国通胀和利率面临同比例更高的上行风险，事实上，可能我国年线层面的利率上行压力在相对弱化。（3）最后，对于下一阶段原油价格走势，我们分场景展望，并给出技术面点位：i）当前的原油价格易上难下，整体是受到地缘冲突和供需缺口双重支撑的；ii）如此次冲突能在4-5月前得到有效和解，则原油价格仍有可能回落到60-90美元/桶的较低位区间；iii）如此次冲突在5月左右得到部分和解，例如仅军事行动趋缓，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至160-190美元/桶的高位区间；iv）如此次冲突在5月以后仍在较激烈进行，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至190-230美元/桶的历史记录水平；v）无论何种走势，原油价格向上和向下的斐波那契技术面关键点位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。1 前言：原油价格走向何方？2022年2月乌克兰冲突爆发以来，全球原油价格持续上行，截至3月9日，已推升至超过120美元/桶水平。我们认为，当前的原油价格较快上涨，主要受地缘冲突和供需缺口双重因素推动，有一定合理性，但也面临较高波动性和高度不确定性。如何理解当前原油价格走势？下一阶段，原油价格走向何方？在当前复杂多变的全球环境下，我们基于地缘冲突和供需结构分析，对原油价格的潜在走势、对通胀和利率等的可能影响，进行展望。2 历史上的地缘冲突冲与原油价格走势本部分考量历史上“地缘冲突-原油价格”的冲击响应模式，并基于历史模式，建立对本轮原油价格冲击响应模式的走势预期框架。2.1 当前原油市场经历的八次主要地缘冲突综合考虑对原油市场的影响和地缘冲突的烈度，二战以后建立的当前原油市场，至少经历过八次较显著的地缘冲突，分别是：古巴危机、第一次石油危机、第二次石油危机、第三次石油危机，北约轰炸南联盟、格鲁吉亚冲突、克里米亚危机，和当前的乌克兰冲突。我们简单概述历次地缘冲突，为我们后续对“地缘冲突-原油价格”影响模式的分类提供基础，主要关注地缘冲突的：持续时长、影响区域、对抗烈度及解决形式。（1）古巴危机主要爆发阶段/时间：1962年8月-10月，持续约3个月。主要影响国家/地区：美国、前苏联、古巴，影响加勒比海地区，非全球原油主产区。主要冲突/解决形式：导弹和核武器部署问题，美国提升战备等级至II级，和平解决、没有公开发生热战。（2）第一次石油危机/第四次中东战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1973年10月-1974年3月，持续约6个月。主要影响国家/地区：埃及等中东地区阿拉伯国家、以色列、美国、前苏联，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区，OPEC在1973年10月宣布对部分国家石油禁运。主要冲突/解决形式：参与国较多，短期烈度较高的局部战争，美国提升战备等级至III级，热战后重新划定国界和领土。（3）第二次石油危机/伊朗革命/两伊战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1979年1月-1981年2月，持续约26个月。主要影响国家/地区：伊朗、伊拉克、美国、前苏联，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区大国冲突，较高烈度的局部战争，热战后持续处于敌对状态。（4）第三次石油危机/海湾战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1990年8月-1991年3月，持续约8个月。主要影响国家/地区：伊拉克、美国、科威特，影响中东地区，全球最主要原油产区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区冲突，短期局部战争，美国提升战备等级至II级，以轻微代价重创伊拉克，军事上取得压倒性优势，伊拉克接受联合国决议撤军。（5）北约轰炸南联盟/科索沃战争主要爆发阶段/时间：1999年3月-6月，持续约4个月。主要影响国家/地区：前南联盟、美国、北约，影响巴尔干地区，进一步影响中东欧地区。主要冲突/解决形式：地区冲突，短期局部战争，美国为首的北约在军事上取得压倒性优势，前南联盟于战后解体。（6）格鲁吉亚冲突主要爆发阶段/时间：2008年8月，持续约1个月。主要影响国家/地区：格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。主要冲突/解决形式：短期局部冲突，俄罗斯在军事上取得压倒性优势，俄罗斯宣布承认部分地区独立，美国和北约不予承认。（7）克里米亚危机主要爆发阶段/时间：2014年3月，持续约1个月。主要影响国家/地区：克里米亚、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。主要冲突/解决形式：短期局部动荡，未有大规模军事冲突，俄罗斯宣布承认部分地区加入俄罗斯，美国和北约不予承认。（8）乌克兰冲突（截至2022年3月9日）截至目前，主要爆发阶段/时间：2022年2月-至今，尚在军事冲突中。截止目前，主要影响国家/地区：乌克兰、俄罗斯、美国、北约，影响东欧地区及“北约-俄罗斯”边界问题。截至目前，主要冲突/解决形式：地区军事冲突和谈判同时进行中，俄罗斯提升战略武器备战等级进入特殊状态，美国提升战备等级至III级，美国和欧盟宣布禁止俄罗斯部分机构使用SWIFT系统等制裁，美国宣布禁止俄罗斯原油和天然气进口，但截至目前德国等欧盟国家尚未明确宣布跟进。2.2 地缘冲突下的原油价格走势基于上文对冲突持续时长、影响区域、对抗烈度及解决形式的分析，当考量同期和其后24个月的原油价格走势，我们认为，“地缘冲突-原油价格”的冲击响应走势，主要可以分为三类：（1）第一类，油价显著上行，累计上行幅度可达150%-200%左右。典型代表为，第一次、第二次石油危机和北约轰炸南联盟。典型特征为，皆有烈度较高的军事冲突、或升级为局部战争，冲突持续时间至少超过4个月，冲突影响地区涉及原油供给，同时，部分存在原油出口国禁运推升油价情况。（2）第二类，油价在事件爆发1-3个月内开始回落，之后显著回落，累计回落幅度可达40%-60%左右。典型代表为，第三次石油危机、格鲁吉亚冲突和克里米亚危机。典型特征为，事件相对较快取得阶段性和解、或军事冲突一方存在压倒性优势、或烈度皆整体可控，同时，部分存在货币主导国平抑油价情况。（3）第三类，油价虽有下行，但没有大幅波动，长期影响不显著。典型代表为，古巴危机。典型特征为，事件突发性较强，虽然短线压力较大、但解决相对较快（1个月内），没有发生的主要原油产区，没有升级为热战。综合三种类型，将相应“地缘冲击-油价响应”走势等比例映射至当前乌克兰时间，如图表5中的不同场景走势，我们认为：（1）当前的原油价格走势，已初步偏离了历史上“得到短期快速解决”的走势模式，正在展现继续上行压力。历史上，主要的三次“快速解决-油价回落”模式，即情景0古巴危机、情景5格鲁吉亚冲突和情景6克里米亚危机，均已经与当前的原油价格走势出现一定幅度背离。（2）下一阶段油价走势，历史模式看，高度取决于是否能在3-4个月内，即3月至5月期间，取得和解。历史上，如能在3-4个月内取得和解，则有可能走出情景3第三次石油危机相似走势，油价从6月起逐步回落，吐回前期涨幅。（3）历史模式看，如本次冲突无法在至迟5月之前取得和解，则油价将可能走出累计100%-200%左右的显著涨幅。即，参照历史上的情景1第一次石油危机、情景2第二次石油危机和情景4北约轰炸南联盟，当映射到本次乌克兰冲击，油价将可能在2022年中即升破160美元/桶，在年末升至190-230美元/桶水平。（4）我们同时测算了基于历史上历次冲击响应波动幅度的斐波那契分位，并折算为本轮对应的技术面压力阻力位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。3 当前原油供需格局和可能的俄罗斯原油禁运影响在上节考察原油价格的地缘冲击响应后，本节考察当前的全球原油供需基本面，以及地缘冲突的重要参与方俄罗斯的可能原油市场影响。3.1 原油供给：相对不足当前，考查全球原油总供给情况，可以发现：（1）供给侧整体尚未完全恢复。从全球原油日产量看，当前全球总供给仍一定幅度低于2019年新冠疫情前水平。（2）俄罗斯是重要原油生产国，近期其面临的局势，对未来供给带来较高不确定。从全球生产份额看，截至2021年末，俄罗斯约为11.4%，伊朗约为3.6%，美国约为20.3%。（3）美国已基本实现原油自给自足，其后续原油政策对未来供给带来较高不确定。截至2021年末，美国自有原油生产量已超过本国原油消费量的90%，从2012年首次升破50%后，美国原油消费自给率持续提升。3.2 原油需求：缺口和库存下行当前，考查全球原油需求情况，可以发现：（1）需求超出供给，为油价上行提供了基本面支持。2021年以来，全球总需求持续高于总供给，缺口持续的时间与幅度皆已达到或接近历史记录水平。过往经验看，历次需求超出，供给缺口时期，原油价格皆以上行为主。（2）乌克兰冲击的或将进一步增加当前原油供需错位。本次乌克兰冲突，短线主要冲击原油生产侧，叠加前期产业链扰动，带来短线进一步供需失衡压力。但也应注意，随油价上行，潜在的供给促进和需求抑制效应何时可带来缺口回补，需后续观察。（3）原油库存低位情况显著。主要原油消费国库存大多处于去化和低库存状态，进一步推升了原油的补库存需求。3.3 俄罗斯的主要贸易格局（1）俄罗斯的出口产品构成，较集中于原油等大宗商品俄罗斯的出口，主要以大宗商品为主，是原油、天然气、铝钢等金属、小麦、化肥等领域的重要出口国。按出口金额，前15大出口品，分别为：1~5：原油、石油产品、天然气、机械和工具、柴油；6-10：液体燃料、铁类金属、煤炭、生铝、半成品碳钢；11-15：小麦及混合麦、扁碳钢、加工木材、混合肥料、无机氮肥。（2）俄罗斯的贸易往来，以欧洲和亚洲地区为主如图表12和图表13，截至2021年底：我国和德国，是俄罗斯份额占比最高的贸易伙伴国，分别占俄罗斯进出口贸易总额的17.9%和7.3%；美国和英国，占俄罗斯净出口贸易份额皆未超过5%，分别为4.4%和3.4%；亚太经合组织（APEC）、欧盟（EU）和独联体（CIS），是俄罗斯最主要的三个贸易伙伴组织，即俄罗斯贸易往来以欧洲和亚洲地区为主。3.4 可能的对俄原油出口制裁的影响北京时间3月9日，美联社消息，美国总统拜登宣布禁止美国进口俄罗斯原油和天然气等产品，截至下午14.00，英国表示将考虑跟进，德国等欧洲大陆国家尚未有明确表态。（1）相对于美英，德国和法国等欧盟国家加入原油禁运的成本更高从原油自给率看，美国和英国的原油自给率皆在90%左右，如进一步扩大生产，有能力将自给率提升至100%以上——英国历史上原油自给率曾较长期高于100%，当前美国页岩油生产仍低于2019年新冠疫情前水平，有一定增产空间。（2）俄罗斯原油出口量较大，如禁运，对市场较显著的短线冲击难以避免，但从全球总产能层面，不考虑地缘因素和运输成本，美国仍有可能对供给缺口进行平抑。当前，俄罗斯原油产量约在1100万桶/日，出口规模约在400-700万桶/日，无论以总产量、或出口量看，对全球原油供给、或出口的份额占比，都在约11%左右。在最极端情况的假设下，如完全禁运，则全球原油日消费将新增400-700万桶/日的缺口，约占全球原油日消费总量的4.5%-7.9%。当前，仍受美国制裁的伊朗和委内瑞拉，其原油出口，分别比制裁前低约150-200万桶/日和200-250万桶/日。沙特方面，原油出口比新冠疫情前仍低约100万桶/日。美国方面，其自身原油出口从2016年的不到60万桶/日，上行到当前的超过300万桶/日，并仍有增产空间。但仍应注意，潜在的原油禁运的影响分布是不均衡的，相对于英美，德国、法国等欧洲大陆国家将承受更多的潜在风险和压力。4 小结与展望在本文的最后部分，我们总结“地缘-原油”冲击的潜在市场影响模式和规律，并基于当前形势，对后续可能的原油价格走势，及其潜在的衍生影响，进行展望。4.1 “地缘-原油”冲击后的可能市场模式如图表18，当回顾历次“地缘-原油”冲击后的市场模式，可以发现：（1）冲击后的原油价格走势和美国加息节奏高度相关。进一步的，由于原油价格相对美联储利率决议的更高频属性，实际操作中可以将原油价格作为议息决议的前瞻指标——从地缘冲击的视角，当冲击发生后，年线内的油价走势和目标利率调整方向高度一致。（2）冲击后的美国10Y国债收益率走势与原油价格走势高度相关。在剔除避险情绪等日线层面的短线扰动后，原油价格的月线走势在冲击发生后的年度，和收益率走向高度一致。（3）多数冲突发生的当年或下一年，美国经济增速皆有下移，甚至跌入衰退区间。进一步的，当回溯冲突发生当年和下一年的全球经济增长时，多数时候、多数国家和地区是的实际增长结果不及冲突发生前的预期数值，但应注意，这一下调的分布往往是不均的——冲突参与方和所在地域经济体往往较显著下修，其次是经济和贸易关联方，再次是其它受影响较小的国家和地区。4.2 当前乌克兰“地缘-原油”冲击的可能后续发展综合考虑历次的“地缘-原油”冲击的影响模式，对于当前乌克兰冲突，事件冲击的可能后续发展路径，我们预期如下：（1）在冲突得到实质解决前，油价难以显著回落、持续面临上行压力，这增大了全球、尤其是美国的近期通胀风险。本次冲突，俄罗斯的主要诉求与美国立场仍有较显著分歧。目前，随地区军事冲突的持续时间增加，油价正在远离“短期冲突-油价回落”的模式，如不能在未来1-3个月内得到和解，则转入“持续冲突-油价上行”模式的概率在上行——同时，不同于以往情况，此次美国依赖其在全球金融、贸易和科技的主导地位，正在对俄罗斯的金融、贸易和科技等诸领域进行全方位制裁和禁运——这一制裁与对抗，进一步影响了全球产业链和生产体系，干扰了全球经济增长和通胀环境。（2）虽然我们预计全球或将面临更高的通胀压力和经济风险，但并不意味着我国通胀和利率面临同比例更高的上行风险，事实上，可能我国年线层面的利率上行压力在相对弱化。由于冲突对全球产业链的扰乱，无论原油价格是否上行，冲突本身都更大概率会削弱1-2年内的局部和全球经济增长。作为全球最大生产国，我国将面临相对更小的通胀风险，由于外部环境的更高不确定性，政策将更加注重“稳就是进”和“以我为主”，降低企业实际融资成本的考量和稳健的人民币币值，将提供更好的货币政策和利率空间。（3）最后，回到原油价格走势，我们认为：i）当前的原油价格易上难下，整体是受到地缘冲突和供需缺口双重支撑的；ii）如此次冲突能在4-5月前得到有效和解，则原油价格仍有可能回落到60-90美元/桶的较低位区间；iii）如此次冲突在5月左右得到部分和解，例如仅军事行动趋缓，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至160-190美元/桶的高位区间；iv）如此次冲突在5月以后仍在较激烈进行，则原油价格在年线层面有可能推升至190-230美元/桶的历史记录水平；v）无论何种走势，原油价格向上和向下的斐波那契技术面关键点位，由低至高分别为：24.1美元/桶、63.7美元/桶、88.1美元/桶、127.7美元/桶、159.7美元/桶、191.7美元/桶、231.3美元/桶、255.7美元/桶和295.3美元/桶。风险提示：地缘、经济、通胀、海外不确定性和疫情风险","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}