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  Morgan Stanley: This indicator raises an alarm and U.S. stocks face "significant correction risk"
  虽然标普500指数过去一个月创下新高，但市场广度指标（Market Breadth）恶化已对美股发出警报，显示美股或面临“重大调整风险”。摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最近研
  Morgan Stanley: This indicator raises an alarm and U.S. stocks face "significant correction risk"
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Compared with the number of stocks that hit a new 52-week high, the stocks that hit a new 52-week low have increased at a faster rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29167088202da4665dc02dc3eab60b3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of stocks currently above the S&P 50-day moving average is less than 50%, which is slightly higher than the previous low of 30% but still low.<b>This suggests that some large constituent stocks may have made a major contribution to the rise of the S&P index, while the stock market has not risen across the board.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738e2ac698d44c189e9629ab7d15146f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Whereas for an index with lower quality constituents, the situation is much worse, Wilson said.</p><p>In addition, the report shows that relative to market value weighting,<b>The equally weighted S&P 500 index has seen a sharp pullback, which can also draw the same conclusion as the deterioration of the market breadth indicator.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ccdb21dd8b2aad9077a296ffcb0a17c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Cyclical and defensive stocks also diverged, and the market increasingly began to shift from the former to the latter. Wilson said that this indicates that U.S. stocks are entering a more fragile period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0294e676dd9fad5a953972f4f51349d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Additionally, on P/E, Wilson noted that forward P/E typically declines by 20% during the mid-cycle transition; By now, P/E has only fallen by 5%, while forward earnings have risen by nearly 20%. So the S&P 500 is up about 15% so far.</p><p>Wilson believes that there are various signs that U.S. stocks are currently facing major adjustment risks. \"P/E should start to fall sharply in the next few months, bringing the S&P index closer to our year-end target of 3,900 points\", which will mean a 10% downside.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This indicator raises an alarm and U.S. stocks face \"significant correction risk\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This indicator raises an alarm and U.S. stocks face \"significant correction risk\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 16:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While the S&P 500 index hit a new high in the past month, the deteriorating Market Breadth indicator has raised an alarm for U.S. stocks, indicating that U.S. stocks may face \"significant correction risk\".</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist, said in a recent research report that the current breadth index of U.S. stocks is the lowest in the past month. Compared with the number of stocks that hit a new 52-week high, the stocks that hit a new 52-week low have increased at a faster rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29167088202da4665dc02dc3eab60b3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>At the same time, the number of stocks currently above the S&P 50-day moving average is less than 50%, which is slightly higher than the previous low of 30% but still low.<b>This suggests that some large constituent stocks may have made a major contribution to the rise of the S&P index, while the stock market has not risen across the board.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738e2ac698d44c189e9629ab7d15146f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Whereas for an index with lower quality constituents, the situation is much worse, Wilson said.</p><p>In addition, the report shows that relative to market value weighting,<b>The equally weighted S&P 500 index has seen a sharp pullback, which can also draw the same conclusion as the deterioration of the market breadth indicator.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ccdb21dd8b2aad9077a296ffcb0a17c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Cyclical and defensive stocks also diverged, and the market increasingly began to shift from the former to the latter. Wilson said that this indicates that U.S. stocks are entering a more fragile period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0294e676dd9fad5a953972f4f51349d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Additionally, on P/E, Wilson noted that forward P/E typically declines by 20% during the mid-cycle transition; By now, P/E has only fallen by 5%, while forward earnings have risen by nearly 20%. So the S&P 500 is up about 15% so far.</p><p>Wilson believes that there are various signs that U.S. stocks are currently facing major adjustment risks. \"P/E should start to fall sharply in the next few months, bringing the S&P index closer to our year-end target of 3,900 points\", which will mean a 10% downside.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636173\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636173","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153602247","content_text":"虽然标普500指数过去一个月创下新高，但市场广度指标（Market Breadth）恶化已对美股发出警报，显示美股或面临“重大调整风险”。\n摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最近研报中表示，当前美股广度指标为近一个月最低，相比创下52周新高的股票数量，创52周新低的股票以更快速度增加。\n\n同时，目前位于标普50日均线上方的股票数量低于50%，虽略高于此前30%的低点，但仍处低位。这表明，部分大型成分股可能对标普指数上升做了主要贡献，而股市并没有全面上升。\n\nWilson表示，而对于成分股质量较低的指数而言，情况还要糟糕得多。\n此外，报告显示，相对于市值加权，等权重的标普500指数已经出现大幅回调，也能与市场广度指标恶化得出相同结论。\n\n周期性和防御性股票也出现分化，市场愈发开始由前者向后者转换。Wilson称，这表明美股正进入一个更加脆弱的时期。\n\n此外，市盈率方面，Wilson指出，在周期中期过渡期间，远期市盈率通常会下降20%；而到当前市盈率只下降了5%，远期收益却上涨了近20%。因此目前为止，标普500指数上涨了约15%。\nWilson认为，种种迹象表明，美股当前面临重大调整风险，“市盈率应该会在未来几个月开始大幅下跌，使标普指数更接近我们的年终目标位3900点”，这将意味着10%的下跌空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}