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Smile31
Smile31
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2024-09-03
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
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2023-12-15
$苹果(AAPL)$
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Smile31
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2022-07-10
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Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy "lost" for three decades?
7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元
Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy "lost" for three decades?
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Smile31
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2022-07-09
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Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy "lost" for three decades?
7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元
Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy "lost" for three decades?
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Smile31
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2022-07-08
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Smile31
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2022-07-07
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An article sorts out the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Federal Reserve meeting!
摘要:6月会上美联储官员认为,7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点;通胀降至2%需要时间,加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓,但充分就业的关键是降通胀;目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险,担心5月CPI暗示通
An article sorts out the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Federal Reserve meeting!
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Smile31
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2022-07-06
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Smile31
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2022-07-05
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Smile31
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2022-07-03
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Smile31
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2022-07-02
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Last Night and This Morning | U.S. stocks got a thrilling start in the second half of the year, and most popular Chinese stocks went up
摘要:美股下半年首日迎来上涨,半导体板块逆势下跌;热门中概股大多走高,新能源汽车股高开低走;已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章;370亿美元大采购!三大航企齐出手,拟购入近300架空客飞机
Last Night and This Morning | U.S. stocks got a thrilling start in the second half of the year, and most popular Chinese stocks went up
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 👍","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345451693904160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":252066392895768,"gmtCreate":1702573516766,"gmtModify":1702573520803,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a>","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48e59378c27d67b08fd3f833cece68fb","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/252066392895768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071080048,"gmtCreate":1657428902385,"gmtModify":1676536007100,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071080048","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy \"lost\" for three decades?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news of the shooting of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot during a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe is still conscious when he gets on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The exchange rate of Japanese yen was also affected. As of 11: 30 on July 8th, the loss of US dollar against Japanese yen widened to 0.47% at 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate when Abe was assassinated? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted by his power during his tenure. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most noteworthy of which is the loose monetary policy, and the exchange rate of the yen began to depreciate at an accelerated rate.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the continuous decline of the Japanese yen exchange rate has become more obvious. On June 13th, the exchange rate of Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen-to-US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the Japanese yen has depreciated sharply by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to fall sharply, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the BOJ must maintain its massive stimulus package to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is questionable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, Japan, as a big importer, has an 88% dependence on foreign energy and a food self-sufficiency rate of only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of sharp easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990.</p><p>People lack confidence somewhat because they have broadened the real estate and prices, but they have not broadened the disposable income of residents. After the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's loss is about to run to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen today is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and then threw out the \"fighting for the economy\" route, which was hyped as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination that solves Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), active fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three strategies\":</p><p>First, the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history was proposed, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen from Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, breaking through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment and foster innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address the continuing downturn in Japan's economy since the 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of Global Macro Speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians break stereotypes and use a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to improve Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" performed bleakly from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomics' goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rate and stock price, etc. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not well advanced.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japan Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to everyone, but there are also serious problems. The most serious of these is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asian Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. However, if we look at it as a whole, the Japanese economy is an upward posture. For example, Japan's wages have increased and the profits of large enterprises have increased well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>'Lost' began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than a decade before the burst of the bubble that left Japan unable to recover, Japan had been a \"country of miracles\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile began to accumulate capital, and then later, with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment and introduced advanced foreign technologies, and quickly rebuilt the national industrial system from the postwar ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games had become an important symbol connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel in large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TV at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries had flourished, and Japan had experienced a complete development stage from \"exchanging shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japanese steel exports to the United States accounted for half of all U.S. imports, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobile, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals fully dominated the U.S. market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba joined forces.</p><p>In the successive trade deficit of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Beaten up by Japanese goods, the United States has launched a trade war that now looks familiar to Chinese people.</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese cars sold worldwide began to be heavily taxed by the United States and restricted on export quotas.</p><p>At the same time, the United States has imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds that Japan has \"dumping behavior\". Japanese semiconductors are subject to a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips are subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\", and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\", stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was required to increase imports of American agricultural products, cancel trade terms that were unfavorable to foreign enterprises, and let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textile, steel, television and machine tool industries, while transferring factories and upgrading industries...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, using the \"Super 301\" clause-blatantly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reform.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", which negotiated economic policies, institutions and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>As of 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had launched a total of 24 Section 301 investigations into Japan, almost all of which had been conceded by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Agreement\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. The production cost has risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of Japanese yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market began to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strong\" sharp appreciation of the yen after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In the past four years, the Nikkei 225 index has risen by 197.45%, and the total stock market value has continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The streets of Japan in the 80s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Japanese emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; Even if a 10,000 yen note is thrown on the ground in the Ginza area, you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese became the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping watch stores, jewelry stores and wine wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies were weak in counting money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of stock index short-selling options, which completely deviate from economic reality, it erupts when the bubble expands to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plunged 63.24%, creating the largest decline in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the property market plunged 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession made countless ordinary people who had no time to get out \"trapped\" by various capital investment targets, and an economic reshuffle made the wealth of the whole society transfer to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has begun to be in a long-term downturn.</p><p>The Nikkei Average dropped by more than 82% from an all-time high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. The Nikkei Average still hovered around 10,000 points for the next four years.</p><p>That is, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japan's economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, because the Japanese economy is still not improving, the media began to raise the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic decline. Since the highest closing point of the Nikkei 225 index in history at 38957, it has gone down all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it didn't stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points short of its peak.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which allowed the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of the Great Depression triggered by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>But the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not unanimous in the analysis of the Great Depression. Toyo Yokuten, the former deputy minister of the Ministry of Treasury of Japan, even personally came forward to refute this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion dollars to more than 3 trillion dollars, which is the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"- -</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, it is a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese enterprises have to look overseas, which makes Japanese enterprises' capital outflow rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow-the strong yen facilitates Japanese companies to invest in overseas companies, and at the same time, building factories abroad can bypass US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese enterprises carried out a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought the Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion-including the Spider-Man copyright that Marvel has not recovered now;</p><p>The Japanese even have the ambition to buy the United States as \"the 41st prefecture of Japan\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the property here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some Japanese believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead the people to \"end the American era,\" wrote Kanji Ito, a Japanese scholar in \"Across the Pacific Fury.\"</p><p>It is just that these properties belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they alone do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal entities has increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 was only $39,000, an increase of only 4% compared with 1990.</p><p><b>Income unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, investment activity in Japan came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories close down, mortgage disaster, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharp rise in production costs has caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst is that ordinary people are laid off in the tide of bankruptcy, their lifelong savings are volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to carry heavy mortgage loans.</p><p>After the collapse of lifelong employment system and annual merit sequence, they worked overtime desperately in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it was solidified after that-accepting the squeeze of competition and production efficiency has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>But the flood of social development has propelled the Japanese forward, but it has failed to give them the reward they deserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare released the \"Hardworking Statistics Survey\", which showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% and the largest decline in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990. At that time, the average annual income of Japanese was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top 10 for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began falling into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, the population of the elderly aged 65 and over in Japan reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Low births and aging leads to a serious labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth in Japan, which in turn leads to a sustained slowdown in economic growth:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rate of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity basically changed synchronously with the economic trend. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%, and the average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the working population and the continuous reduction of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions are expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of personal annual income, which became a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and health care) fell from first in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation to struggle due to the expected decline in income, resulting in the \"hibernation\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan, hibernate people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hibernate people aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to greatly increase the total consumption, and Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan dropped from the \"5 prefix\" with a total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars, but it is still an economic power that is proud of Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world, and it seems not bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached $5.55 trillion in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with its past glory, Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed today.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also leading the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio of various countries was 286.2% in the United States and 284.3% in the euro zone, while it was 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge scale of the debt comes from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial field.</p><p>In 1998, the central bank of the Bank of Japan began to implement the zero interest rate and quantitative easing policy for the first time, that is, the regulation of economic activity through control of the supply of currency.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been going down all the way, and the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the stocks held by the Bank of Japan will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs and more than 5% of the total market value of Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke the 30,000 point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a bubble boom in a mirror, because the huge amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither driven up inflation nor economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are stagnant. The markets of automobile, shipbuilding, machine tools and electronic industries are all being divided by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and few achievements have been made in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, there are only 6 unicorn companies in Japan, which are significantly behind the 554, 180, 64, 43 and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, Britain and Germany, and their valuations are all less than $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt expanded sharply. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, comprising Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese nationals was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when the central banks of the United States, Britain and Europe have all begun to tighten, the Bank of Japan has still not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the Market\" Loose, Unlimited Money Printing, Japanese Yen Falling Streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Fed's rate hike landed in March and released the signal that it would increase the magnitude of rate hike and accelerate the shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining the quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch the \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase unlimited public bonds from private financial institutions at the designated interest rate.</p><p>On the same day, the Japanese yen exchange rate plunged by 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced the unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is conducive to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially at the moment when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten its monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is not stable. Since the Abe administration took office and launched the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only 2016 and 2017 maintained a trade surplus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, the global price of crude oil and raw materials has soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the cost of Japanese enterprises and broadened the channels of imported inflation. At the same time, according to the data of \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have become increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only benefit is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, the yield of U.S. bonds continues to soar, and the spread between the U.S. and Japan in Treasury Bond has become wider and wider. Therefore, local speculators began to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale and borrow Japanese yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about the common people?</p><p>The rise of prices has led to the rise of the cost of living and the weakening of consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which is considered \"conducive to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has made it impossible for the Japanese economy to escape from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, Yasushi Mie, then governor of the central bank, warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, greatly raised lending rates, and took the initiative to burst the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\" by later generations.</p><p>It's just that the front car has been overturned, and the latter is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy \"lost\" for three decades?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy \"lost\" for three decades?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news of the shooting of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot during a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe is still conscious when he gets on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The exchange rate of Japanese yen was also affected. As of 11: 30 on July 8th, the loss of US dollar against Japanese yen widened to 0.47% at 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate when Abe was assassinated? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted by his power during his tenure. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most noteworthy of which is the loose monetary policy, and the exchange rate of the yen began to depreciate at an accelerated rate.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the continuous decline of the Japanese yen exchange rate has become more obvious. On June 13th, the exchange rate of Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen-to-US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the Japanese yen has depreciated sharply by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to fall sharply, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the BOJ must maintain its massive stimulus package to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is questionable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, Japan, as a big importer, has an 88% dependence on foreign energy and a food self-sufficiency rate of only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of sharp easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990.</p><p>People lack confidence somewhat because they have broadened the real estate and prices, but they have not broadened the disposable income of residents. After the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's loss is about to run to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen today is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and then threw out the \"fighting for the economy\" route, which was hyped as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination that solves Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), active fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three strategies\":</p><p>First, the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history was proposed, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen from Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, breaking through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment and foster innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address the continuing downturn in Japan's economy since the 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of Global Macro Speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians break stereotypes and use a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to improve Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" performed bleakly from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomics' goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rate and stock price, etc. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not well advanced.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japan Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to everyone, but there are also serious problems. The most serious of these is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asian Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. However, if we look at it as a whole, the Japanese economy is an upward posture. For example, Japan's wages have increased and the profits of large enterprises have increased well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>'Lost' began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than a decade before the burst of the bubble that left Japan unable to recover, Japan had been a \"country of miracles\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile began to accumulate capital, and then later, with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment and introduced advanced foreign technologies, and quickly rebuilt the national industrial system from the postwar ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games had become an important symbol connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel in large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TV at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries had flourished, and Japan had experienced a complete development stage from \"exchanging shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japanese steel exports to the United States accounted for half of all U.S. imports, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobile, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals fully dominated the U.S. market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba joined forces.</p><p>In the successive trade deficit of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Beaten up by Japanese goods, the United States has launched a trade war that now looks familiar to Chinese people.</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese cars sold worldwide began to be heavily taxed by the United States and restricted on export quotas.</p><p>At the same time, the United States has imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds that Japan has \"dumping behavior\". Japanese semiconductors are subject to a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips are subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\", and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\", stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was required to increase imports of American agricultural products, cancel trade terms that were unfavorable to foreign enterprises, and let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textile, steel, television and machine tool industries, while transferring factories and upgrading industries...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, using the \"Super 301\" clause-blatantly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reform.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", which negotiated economic policies, institutions and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>As of 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had launched a total of 24 Section 301 investigations into Japan, almost all of which had been conceded by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Agreement\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. The production cost has risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of Japanese yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market began to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strong\" sharp appreciation of the yen after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In the past four years, the Nikkei 225 index has risen by 197.45%, and the total stock market value has continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The streets of Japan in the 80s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Japanese emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; Even if a 10,000 yen note is thrown on the ground in the Ginza area, you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese became the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping watch stores, jewelry stores and wine wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies were weak in counting money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of stock index short-selling options, which completely deviate from economic reality, it erupts when the bubble expands to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plunged 63.24%, creating the largest decline in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the property market plunged 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession made countless ordinary people who had no time to get out \"trapped\" by various capital investment targets, and an economic reshuffle made the wealth of the whole society transfer to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has begun to be in a long-term downturn.</p><p>The Nikkei Average dropped by more than 82% from an all-time high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. The Nikkei Average still hovered around 10,000 points for the next four years.</p><p>That is, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japan's economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, because the Japanese economy is still not improving, the media began to raise the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic decline. Since the highest closing point of the Nikkei 225 index in history at 38957, it has gone down all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it didn't stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points short of its peak.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which allowed the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of the Great Depression triggered by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>But the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not unanimous in the analysis of the Great Depression. Toyo Yokuten, the former deputy minister of the Ministry of Treasury of Japan, even personally came forward to refute this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion dollars to more than 3 trillion dollars, which is the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"- -</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, it is a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese enterprises have to look overseas, which makes Japanese enterprises' capital outflow rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow-the strong yen facilitates Japanese companies to invest in overseas companies, and at the same time, building factories abroad can bypass US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese enterprises carried out a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought the Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion-including the Spider-Man copyright that Marvel has not recovered now;</p><p>The Japanese even have the ambition to buy the United States as \"the 41st prefecture of Japan\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the property here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some Japanese believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead the people to \"end the American era,\" wrote Kanji Ito, a Japanese scholar in \"Across the Pacific Fury.\"</p><p>It is just that these properties belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they alone do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal entities has increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 was only $39,000, an increase of only 4% compared with 1990.</p><p><b>Income unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, investment activity in Japan came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories close down, mortgage disaster, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharp rise in production costs has caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst is that ordinary people are laid off in the tide of bankruptcy, their lifelong savings are volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to carry heavy mortgage loans.</p><p>After the collapse of lifelong employment system and annual merit sequence, they worked overtime desperately in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it was solidified after that-accepting the squeeze of competition and production efficiency has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>But the flood of social development has propelled the Japanese forward, but it has failed to give them the reward they deserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare released the \"Hardworking Statistics Survey\", which showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% and the largest decline in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990. At that time, the average annual income of Japanese was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top 10 for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began falling into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, the population of the elderly aged 65 and over in Japan reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Low births and aging leads to a serious labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth in Japan, which in turn leads to a sustained slowdown in economic growth:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rate of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity basically changed synchronously with the economic trend. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%, and the average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the working population and the continuous reduction of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions are expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of personal annual income, which became a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and health care) fell from first in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation to struggle due to the expected decline in income, resulting in the \"hibernation\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan, hibernate people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hibernate people aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to greatly increase the total consumption, and Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan dropped from the \"5 prefix\" with a total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars, but it is still an economic power that is proud of Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world, and it seems not bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached $5.55 trillion in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with its past glory, Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed today.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also leading the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio of various countries was 286.2% in the United States and 284.3% in the euro zone, while it was 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge scale of the debt comes from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial field.</p><p>In 1998, the central bank of the Bank of Japan began to implement the zero interest rate and quantitative easing policy for the first time, that is, the regulation of economic activity through control of the supply of currency.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been going down all the way, and the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the stocks held by the Bank of Japan will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs and more than 5% of the total market value of Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke the 30,000 point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a bubble boom in a mirror, because the huge amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither driven up inflation nor economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are stagnant. The markets of automobile, shipbuilding, machine tools and electronic industries are all being divided by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and few achievements have been made in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, there are only 6 unicorn companies in Japan, which are significantly behind the 554, 180, 64, 43 and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, Britain and Germany, and their valuations are all less than $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt expanded sharply. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, comprising Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese nationals was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when the central banks of the United States, Britain and Europe have all begun to tighten, the Bank of Japan has still not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the Market\" Loose, Unlimited Money Printing, Japanese Yen Falling Streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Fed's rate hike landed in March and released the signal that it would increase the magnitude of rate hike and accelerate the shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining the quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch the \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase unlimited public bonds from private financial institutions at the designated interest rate.</p><p>On the same day, the Japanese yen exchange rate plunged by 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced the unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is conducive to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially at the moment when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten its monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is not stable. Since the Abe administration took office and launched the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only 2016 and 2017 maintained a trade surplus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, the global price of crude oil and raw materials has soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the cost of Japanese enterprises and broadened the channels of imported inflation. At the same time, according to the data of \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have become increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only benefit is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, the yield of U.S. bonds continues to soar, and the spread between the U.S. and Japan in Treasury Bond has become wider and wider. Therefore, local speculators began to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale and borrow Japanese yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about the common people?</p><p>The rise of prices has led to the rise of the cost of living and the weakening of consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which is considered \"conducive to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has made it impossible for the Japanese economy to escape from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, Yasushi Mie, then governor of the central bank, warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, greatly raised lending rates, and took the initiative to burst the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\" by later generations.</p><p>It's just that the front car has been overturned, and the latter is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响,截至7月8日11:30,美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%,报135.37,日元有所升值。安倍遇刺,日元为何会突然升值?或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策,最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策,日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来,日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日,日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口,创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内,日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌,让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点,即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划,以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人,脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷,毕竟日本作为一个进口大国,能源对外依存度高达88%,粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升,将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年,可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来,日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价,独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入,人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后,日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年,日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢?安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相,但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底,安倍晋三再次担任日本首相,随即抛出“拼经济”路线,被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”,是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”:其一,提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松(QE)货币政策,央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元;其二,突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策;其三,囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》(TPP)、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢?全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出,安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验,日本金融家和政治家打破成见,用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率,克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年,获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出,“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现,尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等,但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳,证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为,安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹,但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难,这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为,若仅从日本GDP来看,会有所误解,认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看,日本经济是一个向上的姿态,例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错,所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出,则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年,日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本,再到后来以制造业为核心产业,积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术,从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年,东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志,由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求,日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展,日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年,日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半,1968年,日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时,日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命,汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场,日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中,产业巨头们一片连年亏损,英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下,美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始,行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税,并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时,美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税,日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外,日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕,日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权,并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制,同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时,美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法,启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策,迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判,就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商,促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革:例如把住房作为战略性产业,进一步开放流通体制;进一步开放国内市场,按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年,美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查,几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时,由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”,日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后,日元升值到120日元/美元,1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击,生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外,为了应对汇率危机,日本政府开始大幅降息,寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上,由于实业回报周期过长,低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济,货币市场的充裕流动性,随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始,日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”,1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点, 1989年末收于38916点,四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%,并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元,占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升,日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价;银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上,也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时,日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国,他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄,外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后,是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月,日本长达5年的牛市结束,股市暴跌63.24%,创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年,楼市暴跌65%,破产企业层出不穷,失业人群人数激增,整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时,短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”,一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后,日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957,到2008年10月29日最低6994.9,累积跌幅逾82%,其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始,日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端,并至今难题未解。三十年里,日本具体失去了什么?2010年,由于日本经济仍无起色,媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上,“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起,此后一路下行,期间多次跌至1万点一下,直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘,日经225指数收盘报26490.53点,距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”,被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中,对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年,借强势日元下的海外投资,日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元,也就是所谓的“日本之外,还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时,是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力,大量日企不得不将目光投向海外,这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业,同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年,日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年,三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权;日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”,为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京?因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到,一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\",政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产,属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商,但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道,日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%,而按照OECD的统计数据,日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元,比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后,日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾,充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组;剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭,最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后,为了保住工作而拼命加班,“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机,但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨,成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进,却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月,日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示,日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元,约合1.96万元人民币,同比减少1.2%,创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右,当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元,以当时的汇率计算,月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入,成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年,日本总人口居世界11位,是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年,日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%,在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时,日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万,在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化,导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓,进而使经济增速持续放缓:“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值,实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位;1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长,实际GDP增速也降至4.4%;1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%,实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降,税收不断减少的情况下,需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大,自1990年起,依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革,每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收,到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%,成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名(测量人均GDP,教育,以及医疗),则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时,日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气,由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义,蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门,几乎和外界断绝联系的人群,根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据,15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人,年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望,使得总消费难以大幅提升,日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE,却始终乏力2021年,日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”,但依旧是傲视欧洲,名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国,看起来似乎并不差。但实际上,日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元,当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%,2021年,这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比,如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时,日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行(BIS)最新数据显示,2021 年二季度末,各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%,而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松,是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年,日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策,即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年,日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始,日元兑美元持续贬值,出口实现了较大幅度增长;同时日本基准利率一路下行,十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金),年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元,到2021年,日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上,占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近,一路走强,在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关,但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣,因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率,也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上,日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势,其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分,新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家,大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家,且估值均小于20亿美元。同时,日本的债务急剧扩张,截至2021年12月底,由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元,日本国民人均负债约为971万日元,约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下,日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地,并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后,英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策,但日本央行却反其道而行之,坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日,日本央行发布新闻稿宣布,将在3月 29-31 日间,发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施,即以指定的利率,无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天,日元汇率重挫1.38%。4月20日,不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债,以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限,再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为,由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济,日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段,尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下,日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗?实际上,日本贸易结构并不稳定,自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后,出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降,仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升,日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本,拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时,根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示,日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94%降至2018年的83%,降低了11%,日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的,是日本本土的投机者们,随着美联储大幅落地,美债收益率持续飙涨,美日国债利差已经越来越大,于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元,借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢?物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱,“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值,多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长,反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前,时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府:一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存,否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策,大幅度提高了贷款利率,主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条,却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆,后未知更。三十年过去,日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073694117,"gmtCreate":1657331975039,"gmtModify":1676535992757,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073694117","repostId":"1172335974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172335974","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657272279,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172335974?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-08 17:24","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy \"lost\" for three decades?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172335974","media":"风暴眼工作室","summary":"7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news of the shooting of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot during a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe is still conscious when he gets on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The exchange rate of Japanese yen was also affected. As of 11: 30 on July 8th, the loss of US dollar against Japanese yen widened to 0.47% at 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate when Abe was assassinated? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted by his power during his tenure. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most noteworthy of which is the loose monetary policy, and the exchange rate of the yen began to depreciate at an accelerated rate.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the continuous decline of the Japanese yen exchange rate has become more obvious. On June 13th, the exchange rate of Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen-to-US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the Japanese yen has depreciated sharply by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to fall sharply, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the BOJ must maintain its massive stimulus package to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is questionable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, Japan, as a big importer, has an 88% dependence on foreign energy and a food self-sufficiency rate of only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of sharp easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990.</p><p>People lack confidence somewhat because they have broadened the real estate and prices, but they have not broadened the disposable income of residents. After the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's loss is about to run to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen today is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and then threw out the \"fighting for the economy\" route, which was hyped as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination that solves Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), active fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three strategies\":</p><p>First, the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history was proposed, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen from Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, breaking through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment and foster innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address the continuing downturn in Japan's economy since the 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of Global Macro Speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians break stereotypes and use a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to improve Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" performed bleakly from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomics' goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rate and stock price, etc. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not well advanced.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japan Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to everyone, but there are also serious problems. The most serious of these is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asian Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. However, if we look at it as a whole, the Japanese economy is an upward posture. For example, Japan's wages have increased and the profits of large enterprises have increased well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>'Lost' began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than a decade before the burst of the bubble that left Japan unable to recover, Japan had been a \"country of miracles\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile began to accumulate capital, and then later, with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment and introduced advanced foreign technologies, and quickly rebuilt the national industrial system from the postwar ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games had become an important symbol connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel in large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TV at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries had flourished, and Japan had experienced a complete development stage from \"exchanging shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japanese steel exports to the United States accounted for half of all U.S. imports, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobile, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals fully dominated the U.S. market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba joined forces.</p><p>In the successive trade deficit of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Beaten up by Japanese goods, the United States has launched a trade war that now looks familiar to Chinese people.</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese cars sold worldwide began to be heavily taxed by the United States and restricted on export quotas.</p><p>At the same time, the United States has imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds that Japan has \"dumping behavior\". Japanese semiconductors are subject to a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips are subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\", and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\", stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was required to increase imports of American agricultural products, cancel trade terms that were unfavorable to foreign enterprises, and let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textile, steel, television and machine tool industries, while transferring factories and upgrading industries...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, using the \"Super 301\" clause-blatantly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reform.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", which negotiated economic policies, institutions and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>As of 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had launched a total of 24 Section 301 investigations into Japan, almost all of which had been conceded by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Agreement\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. The production cost has risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of Japanese yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market began to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strong\" sharp appreciation of the yen after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In the past four years, the Nikkei 225 index has risen by 197.45%, and the total stock market value has continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The streets of Japan in the 80s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Japanese emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; Even if a 10,000 yen note is thrown on the ground in the Ginza area, you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese became the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping watch stores, jewelry stores and wine wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies were weak in counting money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of stock index short-selling options, which completely deviate from economic reality, it erupts when the bubble expands to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plunged 63.24%, creating the largest decline in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the property market plunged 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession made countless ordinary people who had no time to get out \"trapped\" by various capital investment targets, and an economic reshuffle made the wealth of the whole society transfer to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has begun to be in a long-term downturn.</p><p>The Nikkei Average dropped by more than 82% from an all-time high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. The Nikkei Average still hovered around 10,000 points for the next four years.</p><p>That is, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japan's economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, because the Japanese economy is still not improving, the media began to raise the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic decline. Since the highest closing point of the Nikkei 225 index in history at 38957, it has gone down all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it didn't stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points short of its peak.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which allowed the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of the Great Depression triggered by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>But the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not unanimous in the analysis of the Great Depression. Toyo Yokuten, the former deputy minister of the Ministry of Treasury of Japan, even personally came forward to refute this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion dollars to more than 3 trillion dollars, which is the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"- -</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, it is a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese enterprises have to look overseas, which makes Japanese enterprises' capital outflow rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow-the strong yen facilitates Japanese companies to invest in overseas companies, and at the same time, building factories abroad can bypass US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese enterprises carried out a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought the Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion-including the Spider-Man copyright that Marvel has not recovered now;</p><p>The Japanese even have the ambition to buy the United States as \"the 41st prefecture of Japan\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the property here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some Japanese believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead the people to \"end the American era,\" wrote Kanji Ito, a Japanese scholar in \"Across the Pacific Fury.\"</p><p>It is just that these properties belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they alone do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal entities has increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 was only $39,000, an increase of only 4% compared with 1990.</p><p><b>Income unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, investment activity in Japan came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories close down, mortgage disaster, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharp rise in production costs has caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst is that ordinary people are laid off in the tide of bankruptcy, their lifelong savings are volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to carry heavy mortgage loans.</p><p>After the collapse of lifelong employment system and annual merit sequence, they worked overtime desperately in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it was solidified after that-accepting the squeeze of competition and production efficiency has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>But the flood of social development has propelled the Japanese forward, but it has failed to give them the reward they deserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare released the \"Hardworking Statistics Survey\", which showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% and the largest decline in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990. At that time, the average annual income of Japanese was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top 10 for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began falling into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, the population of the elderly aged 65 and over in Japan reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Low births and aging leads to a serious labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth in Japan, which in turn leads to a sustained slowdown in economic growth:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rate of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity basically changed synchronously with the economic trend. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%, and the average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the working population and the continuous reduction of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions are expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of personal annual income, which became a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and health care) fell from first in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation to struggle due to the expected decline in income, resulting in the \"hibernation\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan, hibernate people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hibernate people aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to greatly increase the total consumption, and Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan dropped from the \"5 prefix\" with a total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars, but it is still an economic power that is proud of Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world, and it seems not bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached $5.55 trillion in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with its past glory, Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed today.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also leading the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio of various countries was 286.2% in the United States and 284.3% in the euro zone, while it was 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge scale of the debt comes from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial field.</p><p>In 1998, the central bank of the Bank of Japan began to implement the zero interest rate and quantitative easing policy for the first time, that is, the regulation of economic activity through control of the supply of currency.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been going down all the way, and the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the stocks held by the Bank of Japan will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs and more than 5% of the total market value of Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke the 30,000 point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a bubble boom in a mirror, because the huge amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither driven up inflation nor economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are stagnant. The markets of automobile, shipbuilding, machine tools and electronic industries are all being divided by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and few achievements have been made in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, there are only 6 unicorn companies in Japan, which are significantly behind the 554, 180, 64, 43 and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, Britain and Germany, and their valuations are all less than $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt expanded sharply. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, comprising Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese nationals was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when the central banks of the United States, Britain and Europe have all begun to tighten, the Bank of Japan has still not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the Market\" Loose, Unlimited Money Printing, Japanese Yen Falling Streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Fed's rate hike landed in March and released the signal that it would increase the magnitude of rate hike and accelerate the shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining the quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch the \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase unlimited public bonds from private financial institutions at the designated interest rate.</p><p>On the same day, the Japanese yen exchange rate plunged by 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced the unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is conducive to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially at the moment when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten its monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is not stable. Since the Abe administration took office and launched the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only 2016 and 2017 maintained a trade surplus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, the global price of crude oil and raw materials has soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the cost of Japanese enterprises and broadened the channels of imported inflation. At the same time, according to the data of \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have become increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only benefit is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, the yield of U.S. bonds continues to soar, and the spread between the U.S. and Japan in Treasury Bond has become wider and wider. Therefore, local speculators began to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale and borrow Japanese yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about the common people?</p><p>The rise of prices has led to the rise of the cost of living and the weakening of consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which is considered \"conducive to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has made it impossible for the Japanese economy to escape from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, Yasushi Mie, then governor of the central bank, warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, greatly raised lending rates, and took the initiative to burst the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\" by later generations.</p><p>It's just that the front car has been overturned, and the latter is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1639703443321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy \"lost\" for three decades?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind Abe's assassination, how was Japan's economy \"lost\" for three decades?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">风暴眼工作室</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-08 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 8, the news of the shooting of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shocked the world.</p><p>According to CCTV, on the 8th local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot during a speech in Nara that morning. It is reported that Shinzo Abe is still conscious when he gets on the ambulance. At present, Shinzo Abe has no vital signs.</p><p>The exchange rate of Japanese yen was also affected. As of 11: 30 on July 8th, the loss of US dollar against Japanese yen widened to 0.47% at 135.37, and the yen appreciated.</p><p>Why did the yen suddenly appreciate when Abe was assassinated? Perhaps it has something to do with the \"Abenomics\" promoted by his power during his tenure. After Shinzo Abe took office at the end of 2012, he accelerated the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies, the most noteworthy of which is the loose monetary policy, and the exchange rate of the yen began to depreciate at an accelerated rate.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the continuous decline of the Japanese yen exchange rate has become more obvious. On June 13th, the exchange rate of Japanese yen against the US dollar once fell below the 135 yen-to-US dollar mark, setting a new low in about 24 years. In more than a year since the beginning of 2021, the Japanese yen has depreciated sharply by more than 25% relative to the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73ac608c7438fa9083c60e6af1c6dfd9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As a traditional safe-haven currency, it continued to fall sharply, causing Japanese bonds and yen assets to be sold off sharply.</p><p>While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the BOJ must maintain its massive stimulus package to shore up the fragile economic recovery.</p><p>But for ordinary Japanese, it is questionable whether the fragile economic recovery needs to be supported by a sharp depreciation of the yen. After all, Japan, as a big importer, has an 88% dependence on foreign energy and a food self-sufficiency rate of only 37%. The rise in commodity prices brought by the depreciation of the yen will directly affect the lives of citizens.</p><p>Especially after so many years of sharp easing, Japan's average annual GDP growth rate has been less than 1% since the Japanese economy collapsed in 1990.</p><p>People lack confidence somewhat because they have broadened the real estate and prices, but they have not broadened the disposable income of residents. After the \"lost decade\", \"lost twenty years\" and \"lost thirty years\", Japan's loss is about to run to the time dimension of Atlantis.</p><p>In the fourth decade, will Japan be able to make a comeback?</p><p><b>Abe and his \"Abenomics\"</b></p><p>Although Shinzo Abe resigned as prime minister in August 2020, the sharp depreciation of the yen today is closely linked to his \"Abenomics\".</p><p>At the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe once again served as the Prime Minister of Japan, and then threw out the \"fighting for the economy\" route, which was hyped as \"Abenomics\" by the media.</p><p>The so-called \"Abenomics\" is a policy combination that solves Japan's economic problems through experimental monetary policy (QQE for short), active fiscal policy and economic structural reform. Including \"three strategies\":</p><p>First, the largest quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy in Japanese history was proposed, and the central bank purchased 7.5 trillion yen from Treasury Bond every month;</p><p>Second, breaking through the expansionary fiscal policy of the previous government's total budget of 70 trillion yen;</p><p>Third, a package of growth strategies including the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP), deregulation to stimulate private investment and foster innovation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79ef0cf1ad82f6f4d2dbd2d9e5cde013\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Abenomics is the latest effort to address the continuing downturn in Japan's economy since the 1990s. So how effective is the implementation?</p><p>An analysis article of Global Macro Speculation pointed out that Abenomics is a great economic experiment. Japanese financiers and politicians break stereotypes and use a three-pronged approach of structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy to improve Japan's potential economic growth rate and overcome deflation. The first three years of the experiment were quite successful.</p><p>At the same time, the article also pointed out that \"Abenomics\" performed bleakly from 2016 to 2020. Under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of Abenomics' goals have been achieved, especially inflation expectations, yen exchange rate, real interest rate and stock price, etc. However, the potential output growth in the same period is not good, which proves that structural reform is not well advanced.</p><p>Zhang Jifeng, deputy director of the Institute of Japan Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Abe's achievements in economic governance are obvious to everyone, but there are also serious problems. The most serious of these is the difficult financial situation, which has never changed.</p><p>Liu Yun, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asian Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that if we only look at Japan's GDP, there will be a misunderstanding that Abenomics is not very successful. However, if we look at it as a whole, the Japanese economy is an upward posture. For example, Japan's wages have increased and the profits of large enterprises have increased well, so the Japanese economic situation has improved.</p><p><b>'Lost' began in 1990</b></p><p>The original intention of \"Abenomics\" was to save Japan's persistently sluggish economy. The \"lost decade\" was first proposed when the Japanese stock market bubble burst in 1990.</p><p>More than a decade before the burst of the bubble that left Japan unable to recover, Japan had been a \"country of miracles\".</p><p>From the early labor-intensive enterprises such as cotton textile began to accumulate capital, and then later, with manufacturing as the core industry, actively expanded investment and introduced advanced foreign technologies, and quickly rebuilt the national industrial system from the postwar ruins.</p><p>By 1964, the Tokyo Olympic Games had become an important symbol connecting Japan's economic development and transformation. Due to the demand for steel in large-scale infrastructure construction and the demand for color TV at the opening of the Olympic Games, Japan's steel and electromechanical industries had flourished, and Japan had experienced a complete development stage from \"exchanging shirts for airplanes\" to \"Made in Japan\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d0a4f35b86afc5382004806076b2487\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 1965, Japanese steel exports to the United States accounted for half of all U.S. imports, and in 1968, Japan became the world's second largest economy after the United States.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese firmly grasped the new generation of industrial revolution. Automobile, steel, telecommunications, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals fully dominated the U.S. market, and Hitachi, NEC, Fujitsu, Mitsubishi and Toshiba joined forces.</p><p>In the successive trade deficit of the United States with Japan that year, the industrial giants suffered losses year after year, and Intel was even on the verge of bankruptcy.</p><p>Beaten up by Japanese goods, the United States has launched a trade war that now looks familiar to Chinese people.</p><p>Starting in 1981, Japanese cars sold worldwide began to be heavily taxed by the United States and restricted on export quotas.</p><p>At the same time, the United States has imposed 100% tariffs on Japanese high-tech products such as computers and televisions on the grounds that Japan has \"dumping behavior\". Japanese semiconductors are subject to a lower export price limit, and Japanese chips are subject to 100% punitive tariffs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2325f7d267568d30d4ad4c0f6022d74e\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. lawmakers smash Japanese products live</p><p>In addition, executives of Japanese enterprises were arrested in the name of \"industrial espionage\", and Japan was accused by the United States of being a \"currency manipulator\", stealing intellectual property rights from the United States, and was required to increase imports of American agricultural products, cancel trade terms that were unfavorable to foreign enterprises, and let Japan impose voluntary export restrictions in textile, steel, television and machine tool industries, while transferring factories and upgrading industries...</p><p>While constantly accusing Japan of supporting industrial policies through the state, the United States introduced a new trade law in 1988, using the \"Super 301\" clause-blatantly legislating to interfere with Japan's industrial and trade policies, forcing Japan to carry out institutional reform.</p><p>In 1989, Japan and the United States began negotiations on the \"Japan-US Structural Agreement\", which negotiated economic policies, institutions and corporate behaviors, which prompted Japan to carry out open reforms in circulation system and business practices: for example, taking housing as a strategic industry and further opening up the circulation system; Further open up the domestic market and reorganize the import and export system in accordance with the principle of free trade.</p><p>As of 1989, the U.S. Trade Representative had launched a total of 24 Section 301 investigations into Japan, almost all of which had been conceded by the Japanese government.</p><p>At the same time, the yen was forced to appreciate sharply against the dollar due to the \"Plaza Agreement\" reached by the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom in 1985. After \"Black Monday\" in October 1987, the yen appreciated to 120 yen/dollar, an increase of 90% in 1988.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ab4dd9acfe04f8aab569cb046a73ff\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Plaza Agreement Signing Site</p><p>The sharp appreciation of the yen has dealt a devastating blow to Japan, which is mainly an export-oriented economy. The production cost has risen sharply, and high-quality enterprises have begun to flee overseas. In order to cope with the exchange rate crisis, the Japanese government has begun to cut interest rates sharply, hoping to \"send money\" so that enterprises can invest and set up factories at low cost.</p><p>In fact, due to the long industrial return cycle, a large amount of Japanese yen lent at low interest rate has not been invested in the real economy, and the abundant liquidity of the money market began to flow into the housing market, stock market and luxury goods market with the \"strong\" sharp appreciation of the yen after the Plaza Accord.</p><p>Since 1986, Japan's rapidly expanding economic prosperity has been called the \"Heisei boom\". At the end of 1985, the Nikkei 225 stock price index closed at 13,083 points and at the end of 1989, it closed at 38,916 points. In the past four years, the Nikkei 225 index has risen by 197.45%, and the total stock market value has continued to expand to 896 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of Japan's GDP that year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5d38582a2e3123322a61e5b005f13f\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The streets of Japan in the 80s</p><p>The land price in Tokyo is soaring, and the land price of the Japanese emperor's Tokyo Imperial Palace exceeds the land valuation of the whole France; Even if a 10,000 yen note is thrown on the ground in the Ginza area, you can't buy the small piece of land it covers.</p><p>At the same time, the Japanese became the world's largest consumer of luxury goods, sweeping watch stores, jewelry stores and wine wineries around the world. Foreign banks and securities companies were weak in counting money in the Japanese market.</p><p>After a large number of stock index short-selling options, which completely deviate from economic reality, it erupts when the bubble expands to the extreme.</p><p>In October 1990, Japan's five-year bull market ended, and the stock market plunged 63.24%, creating the largest decline in Japanese stock market history. The following year, the property market plunged 65%, bankrupt enterprises emerged in an endless stream, the number of unemployed people surged, and the wealth of the whole country shrank by nearly 50%.</p><p>At the same time, the short-term sharp recession made countless ordinary people who had no time to get out \"trapped\" by various capital investment targets, and an economic reshuffle made the wealth of the whole society transfer to at least a few winners.</p><p>Since then, the Japanese economy has begun to be in a long-term downturn.</p><p>The Nikkei Average dropped by more than 82% from an all-time high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 6,994.9 on October 29, 2008. The Nikkei Average still hovered around 10,000 points for the next four years.</p><p>That is, since the late 1990s, the \"lost decade\" of Japan's economy began to appear in the newspapers, and the problem has not been solved so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced67142e550e77f5f84c394cba59c8d\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What exactly has Japan lost in thirty years?</b></p><p>In 2010, because the Japanese economy is still not improving, the media began to raise the \"lost twenty years\" of the Japanese economy.</p><p>In fact, \"twenty years\" is still not the end of Japan's economic decline. Since the highest closing point of the Nikkei 225 index in history at 38957, it has gone down all the way since then, falling to less than 10,000 points many times during this period, and it didn't stop falling until 2017.</p><p>At the close of trading on July 7, 2022, the Nikkei 225 Index closed at 26,490.53 points, still more than 10,000 points short of its peak.</p><p>The \"Plaza Accord\", which allowed the yen to appreciate sharply, is considered by many to be the root cause of the Great Depression triggered by Japan's bubble economy.</p><p>But the criticism of the Plaza Accord is not unanimous in the analysis of the Great Depression. Toyo Yokuten, the former deputy minister of the Ministry of Treasury of Japan, even personally came forward to refute this view.</p><p>Because from 1985 to 1990, with overseas investment under the strong yen, Japan's overseas net assets rose from more than 1 trillion dollars to more than 3 trillion dollars, which is the so-called \"there is another Japan besides Japan\"- -</p><p>While the yen has appreciated by 300% in 10 years, it is a huge increase in production costs and labor costs. In order to maintain their competitiveness, a large number of Japanese enterprises have to look overseas, which makes Japanese enterprises' capital outflow rapidly.</p><p>The rapidly appreciating yen and the increasingly anxious Japan-US trade war have also contributed to this outflow-the strong yen facilitates Japanese companies to invest in overseas companies, and at the same time, building factories abroad can bypass US sanctions on \"Made in Japan\".</p><p>From 1985 to 1990, Japanese enterprises carried out a total of 21 giant overseas mergers and acquisitions worth more than 50 billion yen.</p><p>In 1989, Mitsubishi bought the Rockefeller Center for $1.4 billion, Panasonic bought Universal Pictures for $6 billion, and Sony bought Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion-including the Spider-Man copyright that Marvel has not recovered now;</p><p>The Japanese even have the ambition to buy the United States as \"the 41st prefecture of Japan\". Why does the city look so like Tokyo from the 70th floor of the InterContinental Hotel in Los Angeles?</p><p>Because the Japanese bought half of the property here back then.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6420f38680bf983f828177b00418e180\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Some Japanese believe that Japan will become the next \"superpower\" and that the government will lead the people to \"end the American era,\" wrote Kanji Ito, a Japanese scholar in \"Across the Pacific Fury.\"</p><p>It is just that these properties belong to giant enterprises, consortia, speculators and wealthy foreign businessmen, but they alone do not belong to the Japanese people.</p><p>In 2020, Sankei Shimbun reported that the revenue of Japanese overseas local legal entities has increased by 220% in the past 20 years, while according to OECD statistics, Japan's per capita purchasing power level in 2020 was only $39,000, an increase of only 4% compared with 1990.</p><p><b>Income unchanged for thirty years</b></p><p>After 1900, investment activity in Japan came to an abrupt halt.</p><p>Banks go bankrupt, factories close down, mortgage disaster, and banks full of non-performing assets have to merge and reorganize; The sharp rise in production costs has caused a large number of enterprises to close down, and the worst is that ordinary people are laid off in the tide of bankruptcy, their lifelong savings are volatilized in the bubble crisis, and they have to carry heavy mortgage loans.</p><p>After the collapse of lifelong employment system and annual merit sequence, they worked overtime desperately in order to keep their jobs. Although the \"social animal\" culture was not born in Japan's bubble crisis, it was solidified after that-accepting the squeeze of competition and production efficiency has become the most helpless choice for Japanese migrant workers.</p><p>But the flood of social development has propelled the Japanese forward, but it has failed to give them the reward they deserve.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11648f82b27132391bb1a6cef2c3432a\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In February 2021, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare released the \"Hardworking Statistics Survey\", which showed that Japan's per capita monthly salary in 2020 was 318,299 yen, or about 19,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% and the largest decline in 12 years.</p><p>This figure was about 350,000 yuan in 1990. At that time, the average annual income of Japanese was 4.25 million yen. Based on the exchange rate at that time, the monthly salary was about 11,600 yuan.</p><p>The average annual income of \"standing still\" for 30 consecutive years has become the most violent \"contraceptive pill\" in Japan.</p><p><b>2. Irreversible aging</b></p><p>In 2020, Japan's total population ranked 11th in the world, falling out of the top 10 for the first time since 1950. From 1974 to 2020, Japan's birth rate dropped from 1.86% to 0.67%, and it began falling into 13 consecutive years of negative population growth around 2008.</p><p>At the same time, the population of the elderly aged 65 and over in Japan reached 36.4 million, accounting for 29.1% of the total population.</p><p>Low births and aging leads to a serious labor supply shortage and a slowdown in labor productivity growth in Japan, which in turn leads to a sustained slowdown in economic growth:</p><p>\"From 1961 to 2020, the growth rate of Japan's working-age population and labor productivity basically changed synchronously with the economic trend. From 1961 to 1975, the average growth rate of Japan's working-age population remained at a high level of 1.6%, the growth rate of labor productivity reached a peak of 8.4%, and the average growth rate of real GDP also remained at a high level of 7.7%; From 1976 to 1988, the working-age population and labor productivity maintained a low growth rate of 0.9% and 3.7% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate also dropped to 4.4%; From 1989 to 2020, the growth rates of working-age population and labor productivity dropped sharply from 0.9% and 4.4% to-0.8% and 1.1% respectively, and the real GDP growth rate dropped from 5.4% to-4.4%. \"</p><p>With the decline of the working population and the continuous reduction of tax revenue, the expenses such as pensions are expanding rapidly. Since 1990, the number of people living on pensions has been five times that of taxpayers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c92a0dfa8f71abcdb41b554124294a7\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2004, Japan launched the pension reform, raising taxes by 0.354% every year. By 2017, the pension paid by taxpayers had accounted for 18.3% of personal annual income, which became a heavy burden on the Japanese people.</p><p>Japan's ranking in the Human Development Index (which measures per capita GDP, education, and health care) fell from first in the world in 1990 to nineteenth in the world in 2020.</p><p>At the same time, Japanese young people have a negative attitude towards life, low material desire and lack of motivation to struggle due to the expected decline in income, resulting in the \"hibernation\". According to the definition of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan, hibernate people are people who stay at home for more than 6 months and almost cut off contact with the outside world. According to the data of the Survey on Living Conditions of the Cabinet Office of Japan, there are 541,000 hibernate people aged 15-39 and 40-64, respectively.</p><p>The consumption and house purchase demand of the elderly are far lower than those of young people, and young people seriously lack consumption desire, which makes it difficult to greatly increase the total consumption, and Japan has fallen into a \"low desire society\".</p><p><b>3. Lifelong QE, but always weak</b></p><p>In 2021, Japan dropped from the \"5 prefix\" with a total GDP of 4,937.4 billion US dollars, but it is still an economic power that is proud of Europe and ranks as the third largest economy in the world, and it seems not bad.</p><p>But in fact, Japan's GDP reached $5.55 trillion in 1995. At that time, the ratio of Japan's GDP to the GDP of the United States was 71.34%. In 2021, this ratio became 21.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0823be1f503a8cdff0d86e9ba57b90cf\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Compared with its past glory, Japan is indeed somewhat embarrassed today.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's macro leverage ratio is also leading the world. According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), at the end of the second quarter of 2021, the macro leverage ratio of various countries was 286.2% in the United States and 284.3% in the euro zone, while it was 416.5% in Japan.</p><p>The huge scale of the debt comes from Japan's decades-long quantitative easing.</p><p>quantitative easing is an innovation in Japan's financial field.</p><p>In 1998, the central bank of the Bank of Japan began to implement the zero interest rate and quantitative easing policy for the first time, that is, the regulation of economic activity through control of the supply of currency.</p><p>In 2013, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched a monetary policy stimulus plan to boost inflation.</p><p>Since 2013, the yen has continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and exports have achieved a substantial increase; At the same time, Japan's benchmark interest rate has been going down all the way, and the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate even dropped to a negative number in 2016.</p><p>At the same time, the Bank of Japan began to purchase ETFs (exchange-traded funds) on a large scale, with an average annual ETF purchase scale of nearly 4 trillion yen. By 2021, the stocks held by the Bank of Japan will account for more than 80% of stock ETFs and more than 5% of the total market value of Tokyo Stock Exchange.</p><p>Although the Nikkei 225 index has strengthened all the way from around 8,000 points in 2012, and even broke the 30,000 point mark in February 2021, it still seems to be a bubble boom in a mirror, because the huge amount of base money injected by the Bank of Japan has neither driven up inflation nor economic growth.</p><p>In terms of economic structure, except for core basic raw materials, Japan still maintains its barrier advantage, and almost all other industries are stagnant. The markets of automobile, shipbuilding, machine tools and electronic industries are all being divided by the United States, China, South Korea and other countries, and few achievements have been made in emerging industries.</p><p>At present, there are only 6 unicorn companies in Japan, which are significantly behind the 554, 180, 64, 43 and 26 companies in the United States, China, India, Britain and Germany, and their valuations are all less than $2 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Japan's debt expanded sharply. As of the end of December 2021, Japan's national debt, comprising Treasury Bond, borrowings and short-term government securities, reached 1,218.4 trillion yen, and the per capita debt of Japanese nationals was approximately 9.71 million yen, or approximately 534,573 yuan.</p><p>However, at a time when the central banks of the United States, Britain and Europe have all begun to tighten, the Bank of Japan has still not changed its loose monetary policy.</p><p><b>\"Against the Market\" Loose, Unlimited Money Printing, Japanese Yen Falling Streak</b></p><p>The yen's losing streak began in March.</p><p>After the Fed's rate hike landed in March and released the signal that it would increase the magnitude of rate hike and accelerate the shrinking balance sheet in the future, both Britain and Europe began to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, but the Bank of Japan did the opposite and insisted on maintaining the quantitative easing policy.</p><p>On March 28th, the Bank of Japan issued a press release announcing that it would launch the \"continuous designated price market operation\" measure to curb the rise of interest rates from March 29th to 31st, that is, to purchase unlimited public bonds from private financial institutions at the designated interest rate.</p><p>On the same day, the Japanese yen exchange rate plunged by 1.38%.</p><p>On April 20th, less than a month later, the Bank of Japan announced the unlimited purchase of 10-year Treasury Bond to defend the 0.25% yield ceiling of 10-year Japanese Treasury Bond, which once again pushed the depreciation of the yen.</p><p>Some experts believe that because the depreciation of the yen is conducive to Japan's export-oriented economy, the Bank of Japan has always regarded the loose monetary environment as an important means to boost market expectations, especially at the moment when it has just entered the new fiscal year, it is more difficult for the Bank of Japan to tighten its monetary policy.</p><p>But can easing save the Japanese economy?</p><p>In fact, Japan's trade structure is not stable. Since the Abe administration took office and launched the unlimited stimulus policy, the total export volume has declined continuously from 2012 to 2015, and only 2016 and 2017 maintained a trade surplus.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2490580bd25519041d5aef1bb5c3c0\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Recently, the global price of crude oil and raw materials has soared, and the depreciation of the yen has raised the cost of Japanese enterprises and broadened the channels of imported inflation. At the same time, according to the data of \"Value-added Trade Statistics\" released by OECD, the added value created in Japan has dropped from 94% in 1995 to 83% in 2018, a decrease of 11%. Japan's related high value-added products and services have become increasingly difficult to offset its rising production costs.</p><p>The only benefit is Japanese local speculators. With the sharp landing of the Federal Reserve, the yield of U.S. bonds continues to soar, and the spread between the U.S. and Japan in Treasury Bond has become wider and wider. Therefore, local speculators began to short-sell Japanese yen on a large scale and borrow Japanese yen to buy arbitrage of U.S. bonds.</p><p>What about the common people?</p><p>The rise of prices has led to the rise of the cost of living and the weakening of consumption power, and the \"lost thirty years\" seem to be postponed again-the depreciation of the yen, which is considered \"conducive to the economy\" by the Bank of Japan, has never effectively boosted Japan's economic growth for many years, but has made it impossible for the Japanese economy to escape from the large-scale financial easing policy for more than ten years.</p><p>Thirty years ago, Yasushi Mie, then governor of the central bank, warned the government that a country must not survive by blowing economic bubbles, otherwise it will be a great harm to the country.</p><p>So shortly after he took office, Japan implemented a tight monetary policy, greatly raised lending rates, and took the initiative to burst the bubble. This hard landing plunged Japan into decades of depression, but it was often regarded as the decisive decision of \"a strong man breaking his wrist\" by later generations.</p><p>It's just that the front car has been overturned, and the latter is unknown.</p><p>Thirty years later, Japan still seems to be the same Japan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w\">风暴眼工作室</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6491f7a764c5c5f68017952b8c2931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vyE5FKltsfEpcN7v5P6r4w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172335974","content_text":"7月8日,日本前首相安倍晋三遭遇枪击的消息震惊全世界。据央视报道,当地时间8日,日本前首相安倍晋三当天上午在奈良发表演讲时中枪 。据悉,安倍晋三在上救护车时还有意识,目前安倍晋三已经没有生命体征。日元汇率也受到了影响,截至7月8日11:30,美元兑日元跌幅扩大至0.47%,报135.37,日元有所升值。安倍遇刺,日元为何会突然升值?或许与其任期内力主推动的“安倍经济学”有关。安倍晋三2012年底上台后加速实施的一系列刺激经济政策,最值得注目的就是宽松货币政策,日元汇率开始加速贬值。今年以来,日元汇率持续下跌态势更加明显。6月13日,日元兑美元汇率一度跌破135日元兑换1美元关口,创下约24年的新低。而从2021年初至今的一年多时间内,日元相对美元已经大幅贬值超过25%。作为传统避险货币持续大跌,让日债和日元资产开始被大幅抛售。虽然日本央行行长黑田东彦重申了他的观点,即日本央行必须维持其大规模刺激计划,以支撑脆弱的经济复苏。但对于普通日本人,脆弱的经济复苏是否需要用日元的大幅贬值来支撑还是值得商榷,毕竟日本作为一个进口大国,能源对外依存度高达88%,粮食自给率仅有37%。日元贬值带来的大宗商品价格抬升,将直接影响市民的生活。尤其是大幅宽松了这么多年,可从1990年日本经济崩溃以来,日本平均年GDP增长率不足1%。宽高了房产、宽起了物价,独独没有宽起来居民的可支配收入,人们多少缺乏点信心。在已经经历了“失落的十年”、\"失落的二十年\"、“失落的三十年”之后,日本的失落眼看着要奔向亚特兰蒂斯的那个时间维度去了。第四个十年,日本又是否能绝地翻盘呢?安倍和他的“安倍经济学”虽然安倍晋三在2020年8月就已经辞任首相,但日元如今的大幅贬值却和他的“安倍经济学”联系紧密。2012年底,安倍晋三再次担任日本首相,随即抛出“拼经济”路线,被媒体热炒为“安倍经济学”。所谓“安倍经济学”,是通过实验性质的货币政策(简称QQE)、积极财政政策和经济结构改革来解决日本经济问题的政策组合。包括“三大策略”:其一,提出日本史上最大规模的量化宽松(QE)货币政策,央行每月购买国债7.5万亿日元;其二,突破前任政府预算总额70万亿日元的扩张性财政政策;其三,囊括《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》(TPP)、放松管制以唤起民间投资和促进创新等在内的一揽子增长战略。安倍经济学是为了解决1990年代以后日本经济不断低迷而做出的最新努力。那么实施效果如何呢?全球宏观投机的一篇分析文章指出,安倍经济学是一个伟大的经济实验,日本金融家和政治家打破成见,用结构调整、财政和货币政策三管齐下的方法提升日本潜在经济增长率,克服通货紧缩。实验的前三年,获得了相当成功。文章同时也指出,“安倍经济学”2016到2020年则表现暗淡。新冠疫情冲击下部分安倍经济学的目标得以实现,尤其是通胀预期、日元汇率、真实利率和股票价格等,但是同期的潜在产出成长并不佳,证明了结构改革推进不力。中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长张季风认为,安倍在经济治理上的成绩大家有目共睹,但是也有较为严重的问题。其中最严重的问题就是财政状况困难,这个局面始终没有得到改变。中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所副研究员刘云认为,若仅从日本GDP来看,会有所误解,认为安倍经济学不太成功。但如果从整体上看,日本经济是一个向上的姿态,例如日本的工资有增加、大企业利润增速不错,所以日本经济形势是有所好转的。“失落”始于1990“安倍经济学”的初衷是为了挽救日本持续低迷的经济。而“失落的十年”最早被提出,则是1990年日本股市泡沫破灭。在这场让日本一蹶不振的泡沫大破灭之前的十数年,日本曾是“缔造奇迹的国家”。从早期的棉纺织等劳动密集型企业开始积累资本,再到后来以制造业为核心产业,积极扩大投资、引进国外先进技术,从战后的废墟里迅速重建起本国的工业体系。到1964年,东京奥运会更是成为衔接日本经济发展转型的重要标志,由于大规模基建对钢铁的需求以及奥运会开幕对彩电的需求,日本的钢铁、机电行业蓬勃发展,日本经历了一个完整的“用衬衫换飞机”到“日本制造”的发展阶段。1965年,日本输出美国的钢铁占到了美国进口总量一半,1968年,日本成为了仅次美国的世界第二大经济体。与此同时,日本牢牢抓住了新一代的产业革命,汽车、钢铁、电信、半导体、制药全面制霸美国市场,日立、NEC、富士通、三菱和东芝群雄并起。而美国在当年对日的连年贸易赤字中,产业巨头们一片连年亏损,英特尔甚至一度濒临倒闭。在被日货打得找不着北的窘境之下,美国不顾脸面地发起了一场国人如今看起来很眼熟的贸易战——从1981年开始,行销全球的日系汽车开始被美国课以重税,并且在出口额度上被加以限制。同时,美国以日方“存在倾销行为”为由对日本的电脑、电视等高科技产品征收100%的关税,日本的半导体被设置出口价格下限、日本的芯片被征收100%惩罚性关税。美国议员直播砸碎日本产品此外,日系企业的高管被以“产业间谍罪”为名拘捕,日本被美国指责为“汇率操纵国”、从美国窃取知识产权,并被要求加大对美国农产品的进口力度、取消对外企不利的贸易条款、让日本在纺织品、钢铁、电视和机床等行业都实行自愿出口限制,同时进行工厂转移和产业升级……在不断指责日本通过国家扶持产业政策的同时,美国却在1988年出台新的贸易法,启用“超级301”条款——公然立法干预日本的产业与贸易政策,迫使日本进行制度性改革。1989年日美开始“日美结构协议”谈判,就经济政策、制度及企业行为等进行磋商,促使日本在流通体制、商业惯例等方面进行开放性改革:例如把住房作为战略性产业,进一步开放流通体制;进一步开放国内市场,按照自由贸易的原则重组进出口体制。截至1989年,美国贸易代表总计向日本发起了24例301条款案件调查,几乎全部由日本政府做出了让步。同时,由于1985年美国、日本、联邦德国、法国和英国达成的“广场协议”,日元兑美元汇率被迫大幅升值。1987年10月的“黑色星期一”之后,日元升值到120日元/美元,1988年度升幅高达90%。广场协议签订现场大幅升值的日元对以出口型经济为主的日本造成了毁灭性的打击,生产成本急剧上涨、优质企业开始逃向海外,为了应对汇率危机,日本政府开始大幅降息,寄希望于“发钱”让企业可以低成本去投资办厂。可实际上,由于实业回报周期过长,低利率贷出大量的日元并没有被投入到到实体经济,货币市场的充裕流动性,随着日元在广场协议后大幅升值的“强势”开始大量流入房市、股市以及奢侈品市场。1986 年开始,日本飞速膨胀的经济繁荣被称为“平成景气”,1985年末日经225股价指数收于13083点, 1989年末收于38916点,四年间日经225指数累计上涨197.45%,并且股票总市值继续膨胀至896万亿日元,占日本当年国民生产总值的60%。80年代的日本街头东京的地价则是坐地飞升,日本天皇的东京皇居土地价格就超过了整个法国的土地估价;银座地区一张1万日元的纸币扔在地上,也买不到它所覆盖的那一小片土地。同时,日本人成了全球最大的奢侈品消费国,他们横扫全球的手表店、珠宝店以及红酒酒庄,外资银行与证券公司在日本市场数钱数到手软。与经济现实完全背离的大批股指沽空期权之后,是泡沫膨胀到极致时爆发。1990年10月,日本长达5年的牛市结束,股市暴跌63.24%,创造了日本股市历史上最大的下跌幅度。次年,楼市暴跌65%,破产企业层出不穷,失业人群人数激增,整个国家财富缩水了近50%。同时,短期的大幅衰退让无数来不及抽身的普通人被各项资本投资标的物“套牢”,一场经济大洗牌让全社会的财富被转移至少数赢家手中。此后,日本经济开始长期处于低迷状态。日经平均指数由1989年12月29日历史高位38957,到2008年10月29日最低6994.9,累积跌幅逾82%,其后4年日经平均指数仍然始终徘徊在10,000点左右。也就是从90年代末开始,日本经济“失去的十年””开始不断见诸报端,并至今难题未解。三十年里,日本具体失去了什么?2010年,由于日本经济仍无起色,媒体开始提出日本经济“失去的二十年”。实际上,“二十年”依旧不是日本经济颓靡的终点。自38957的日经225指数历史最高收盘点位开始算起,此后一路下行,期间多次跌至1万点一下,直至2017年才止跌。2022年7月7日收盘,日经225指数收盘报26490.53点,距其最高点仍有一万多点的差距。那个让日元急剧升值的“广场协议”,被许多人认为是日本泡沫经济引发大萧条的根源。但对于这次大萧条的分析中,对于广场协议的批判并不是一致的。原日本大藏省副相行天丰雄甚至亲自出面驳斥过这一观点。因为在1985年~1990年,借强势日元下的海外投资,日本海外净资产从1万多亿美元上升到3万多亿美元,也就是所谓的“日本之外,还有一个日本”——日元10年升值300%的同时,是生产成本与人力成本的巨幅抬升。为了保持自己的竞争力,大量日企不得不将目光投向海外,这使得日企资本急速外流。升值迅速的日元与日渐焦灼的日美贸易战也助推了这一外流——强势的日元方便日企投资收购海外企业,同时在外建厂可以绕开美国对“日本制造”的制裁。从1985年到1990年,日本企业总共进行了21起500亿日元以上的巨型海外并购案。1989年,三菱公司14亿美元买下的洛克菲勒中心、松下60亿美元买下的美国环球影业、索尼公司以34亿美元买下哥伦比亚影片公司——其中包括漫威如今都没能收回的蜘蛛侠版权;日本人甚至雄心壮志地要将美国买成“日本的第四十一个县”,为什么从洛杉矶洲际酒店70楼看去的城市那么像东京?因为当年日本人买下了这里一半的地产。日本学者伊藤感在《横跨太平洋的愤怒》中写到,一些日本人相信日本会成为下一个\"超级大国\",政府会带领民众\"终结美国的时代\"。只是这些地产,属于巨企、属于财团、属于投机者、属于外籍富商,但独独不属于日本的人民。2020年《产经新闻》报道,日本海外当地法人的营收在近20年内增长了220%,而按照OECD的统计数据,日本2020年的人均购买力水平仅为3.9万美元,比1990年仅增长了4%。1、三十年不动的收入1900年以后,日本的投资活动戛然而止。银行破产、工厂倒闭、房贷成灾,充斥着不良资产的银行不得不合并重组;剧烈抬升的生产成本让企业大批倒闭,最惨的还是普通人——在倒闭潮中被裁员、一辈子的积蓄在泡沫危机中挥发、还要背上沉重的房贷。而在终身雇佣制和年功序列崩解后,为了保住工作而拼命加班,“社畜”文化虽然不诞生于日本的泡沫危机,但却在这之后得到了固化——接受竞争和生产效率至上的齿轮对自己的压榨,成了日本打工人最无奈的选择。但社会发展的洪流推进着日本人前进,却没能给他们应有的回报。2021年2月,日本厚生劳动省发布的“勤劳统计调查”显示,日本2020年的人均月薪为31万8299日元,约合1.96万元人民币,同比减少1.2%,创下12年以来最大降幅。而这一数字在1990年时是35万元左右,当时的日本人平均年收入是425万日元,以当时的汇率计算,月薪约合1.16万人民币。连续30年“原地踏步”的平均年收入,成了日本最猛烈的“避孕药”。2、难以逆转的老龄化2020年,日本总人口居世界11位,是1950年以来首次跌出前十。从1974到2020年,日本出生率由1.86%降至0.67%,在2008年左右开始陷入连续13年的人口负增长。同时,日本65岁及以上老年人口达3640万,在总人口中所占比例达29.1%。少子老龄化,导致日本陷入严重的劳动力供给不足、劳动生产率增速趋缓,进而使经济增速持续放缓:“1961-2020年日本劳动年龄人口增速、劳动生产率增速与经济走势基本同步变化。伴随1961-1975年日本劳动年龄人口平均增速维持在1.6%的高位、劳动生产率增速达到8.4%峰值,实际GDP平均增速也维持在7.7%的高位;1976-1988年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率分别维持0.9%、3.7%的低速增长,实际GDP增速也降至4.4%;1989-2020年劳动年龄人口、劳动生产率增速分别从0.9%、4.4%大幅降至-0.8%、1.1%,实际GDP增速从5.4%降至-4.4%。”在劳动人口下降,税收不断减少的情况下,需要支出的养老金等费用却在急速扩大,自1990年起,依附养老金生活的人数已经是纳税人的5倍。2004年日本启动了养老金改革,每年以0.354%的涨幅提高税收,到2017年纳税人缴纳的养老金已占到个人年收入的18.3%,成了日本民众沉重的负担。日本人类发展指数的排名(测量人均GDP,教育,以及医疗),则从1990年的世界第一掉落至2020年的世界第十九。同时,日本年轻人因预期收入下降而形成的生活态度消极、物质欲望低下、缺乏奋斗动力的风气,由此产生“蛰居族”。根据日本厚生劳动省定义,蛰居族为持续6个月以上待在家里不出门,几乎和外界断绝联系的人群,根据日本内阁府《生活状况相关调查》数据,15-39岁、40-64岁人口蛰居族分别达54.1、61.3万人。老年人的消费和购房需求远低于年轻人,年轻人又严重缺乏消费欲望,使得总消费难以大幅提升,日本陷入“低欲望社会”。3、终身QE,却始终乏力2021年,日本以49374亿美元的GDP总量跌下“5字头”,但依旧是傲视欧洲,名列世界第三大经济体的经济大国,看起来似乎并不差。但实际上,日本1995年GDP就已经达到了5.55万亿美元,当时日本GDP与美国GDP的比率是71.34%,2021年,这个比率变成了21.46%。与过往的辉煌相比,如今的日本确实有些困窘。同时,日本的宏观杠杆率也在全球领先。国际清算银行(BIS)最新数据显示,2021 年二季度末,各国宏观杠杆率中美国为286.2%、欧元区为284.3%,而日本为416.5%。庞大的债务规模来源于日本数十年的量化宽松。量化宽松,是日本在融领域的一个创新。1998年,日本央行本央行第一次开始实行零利率和量化宽松政策,即通过对通货供应量的控制来调节经济活动。2013年,日本央行行长黑田东彦推出提振通胀的货币政策刺激计划。从2013年开始,日元兑美元持续贬值,出口实现了较大幅度增长;同时日本基准利率一路下行,十年期国债利率在2016年甚至下降至负数。同时日本央行开始大规模购入ETF(交易所交易基金),年均ETF购买规模接近4万亿日元,到2021年,日本央行持有股票占股票ETF的80%以上,占东京证券交易所总市值的5%以上。虽然日经225指数从2012年的八千点附近,一路走强,在2021年2月甚至突破了三万点大关,但这似乎仍然是一场镜花水月的泡沫化繁荣,因为日本央行注入的巨量基础货币既没有拉高通胀率,也没有拉动经济增长。经济结构上,日本除核心基础原材料依然保持壁垒优势,其他产业几乎都在裹足不前。汽车、造船、机床、电子产业的市场都在被美、中、韩等国瓜分,新兴产业上更是少有建树。目前日本独角兽企业数量仅6家,大幅落后于美、中、印、英、德、的554、180、64、43、26家,且估值均小于20亿美元。同时,日本的债务急剧扩张,截至2021年12月底,由国债、借款及政府短期证券构成的日本国家债务达到1218.4万亿日元,日本国民人均负债约为971万日元,约合人民币53万4573元。但在美、英、欧等央行均已开始紧缩步伐的当下,日本央行却仍旧未改变宽松的货币政策。“逆市”宽松、无限量印钞、日元连跌日元的连跌始于3月份。在3月美联储加息落地,并释放后续将加大加息幅度和加快缩表的信号后,英、欧均开始加速收紧货币政策,但日本央行却反其道而行之,坚持维持量化宽松政策。3 月 28 日,日本央行发布新闻稿宣布,将在3月 29-31 日间,发动抑制利率上升的“连续性指定价格市场操作”措施,即以指定的利率,无限量从民间金融机构手中收购公债。当天,日元汇率重挫1.38%。4月20日,不到一个月的时间内日本央行又宣布无限量购买10年期国债,以捍卫10年期日本国债0.25%的收益率上限,再度推动了日元的贬值。有专家认为,由于日元贬值有利于日本以出口为导向的经济,日本央行一直将宽松的货币环境作为提振市场预期的重要手段,尤其是在刚刚进入新财年的当下,日本央行更难有可能收紧货币政策。但宽松能挽救日本经济吗?实际上,日本贸易结构并不稳定,自安倍政府上台推出无限刺激政策后,出口总额在2012~2015年连续下降,仅2016、2017年两年保持了贸易顺差状态。近期全球原油和原材料价格飙升,日元贬值更是抬高了日本企业的成本,拓宽了输入型通胀的渠道。同时,根据OECD发布的“附加值贸易统计”数据显示,日本国内创造的附加值已经从1995年的94%降至2018年的83%,降低了11%,日本相关高附加值产品和服务已经越来越难抵消其不断提升的生产成本。唯一得益的,是日本本土的投机者们,随着美联储大幅落地,美债收益率持续飙涨,美日国债利差已经越来越大,于是本土的投机者们开始大规模沽空日元,借日元买美债的套利。对于老百姓来说呢?物价提升导致生活成本上升、消费力削弱,“失落的三十年”似乎又要延期——被日本央行认定“有利于经济”的日元贬值,多年来从未有效提振过日本的经济增长,反而让日本经济十数年来无法从大规模金融缓和政策中脱出。三十年前,时任央行行长三重野康告诫政府:一个国家绝对不能靠吹经济泡沫生存,否则将是国家的大害。于是在他上台不久后日本就实行了紧缩性的货币政策,大幅度提高了贷款利率,主动刺破泡沫。这场硬着陆让日本陷入了数十年的萧条,却也常被后人视为“壮士断腕”的果决。只是前车已覆,后未知更。三十年过去,日本似乎还是那个日本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079771648,"gmtCreate":1657244781084,"gmtModify":1676535978270,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079771648","repostId":"1154580307","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079135963,"gmtCreate":1657156686552,"gmtModify":1676535960636,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079135963","repostId":"1177613805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177613805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657148501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177613805?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 07:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"An article sorts out the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Federal Reserve meeting!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177613805","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要:6月会上美联储官员认为,7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点;通胀降至2%需要时间,加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓,但充分就业的关键是降通胀;目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险,担心5月CPI暗示通","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At the June meeting, Fed officials believe that the July meeting may be suitable for rate hike at 75 basis points or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to drop to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to bring down inflation; There is a deep-rooted risk of high inflation at the moment, fearing that the May CPI suggests that inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, lowering inflation will pay a higher price. According to the minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday, July 6th, Eastern Time, at the monetary policy meeting in June, Fed officials admitted that rate hike may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, but believed that it may take rate hike to last longer to avoid high inflation becoming deep-rooted. Because the inflation outlook has worsened, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that are deliberately slowing the economy.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes confirmed that the Fed will discuss at this month's meeting whether to continue the rate hike at 75 basis points or slow the magnitude to 50 basis points.</p><p>According to media comments, considering that the recent data shows that the economic growth is slightly slower, some investors believe that the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at the June meeting is outdated. This pushed the U.S. stock market higher in the intraday session, and the three major indexes that turned down more than once in the intraday session completely got rid of the decline.</p><p>July meeting considers whether to rate hike an additional 75 basis points</p><p>The Federal Reserve's June meeting decided that rate hike would be 75 basis points, the strongest rate hike in more than 27 years. The minutes of this meeting show that because, considering the very tight supply in the labor market, inflation is well above the 2% inflation target of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee, the FOMC, and the near-term inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting, almost all Fed policymakers agreed to a 75 basis point rate hike in June, with only one voting against it by supporting rate hike by 50 basis points.</p><p>In discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, officials continued to anticipate that the continuation of the rate hike would be appropriate in the future, and the summary specifically mentioned:</p><p>Participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street Insight Note: i.e.<b>July Meeting</b>)<b>May fit rate hike 75 bps or 50 bps</b>。<b>Participants</b>It is agreed that the economic outlook is guaranteed for (monetary) policy to move into a restrictive position. And they<b>Recognize that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may even be more restrictive</b>(even more restrictive). It will take time for inflation to drop to 2% rate hike could lead to a period of economic slowdown</p><p>The minutes show that at the June meeting, Fed policymakers expected that it would take time to bring down inflation, and that keeping it down would pay the price of a possible slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believe that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention and other factors restricting the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also determined that maintaining a strong labor market in bringing inflation down to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policy could allow economic growth to slow for some time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% would be key to achieving sustained full employment. There are deep-rooted risks of high inflationConcerns about the May CPI hinting at inflation lasting longer than previously expected</p><p>According to the minutes, the Fed policymakers at the meeting believed that because inflation was much higher than the Fed's target level, the Fed needed to change to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. And, from a risk management perspective, because once inflation is higher than expected, the Fed can be in a better position to strengthen its restrictive efforts.</p><p>many participants decided that,<b>One of the big risks facing the (FOMC) committee now is</b>,<b>High inflation could become entrenched if the public begins to doubt whether the committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance.</b>In this regard, participants emphasized that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, was essential to restoring price stability. In terms of inflation, Fed officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation is still too high and continues to be much higher than the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Participants<b>worry</b>,<b>May CPI data suggest that inflationary pressures have not shown signs of abating</b>。 A number of people treat this as<b>Reinforcing the idea that inflation will last longer than they had previously expected</b>。 Inflation has upside risks such as commodity price increases If inflation expectations are out of control, lowering inflation will pay a higher price</p><p>When assessing the economy, Fed officials at the meeting emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor inflation and developments related to inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants viewed the risk of inflation as upside, citing a number of associated risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks, rising energy and commodity prices. Participants identified high uncertainty regarding economic growth in the coming years.</p><p>Most participants assessed that there are downward risks in the outlook of economic growth. The downward risks include that further tightening of the financial environment will have a greater negative impact on economic activities than expected, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention on economic growth exceeds expectations.</p><p>In terms of inflation expectations, the minutes show,</p><p>While indicators of long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters, and market participants agree overall with the FOMC Committee's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants worried that long-term inflation expectations could start to rise to levels that do not meet the 2% target. These participants pointed out that if inflation expectations get out of control, getting inflation back to the FOMC target will pay a higher price</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released at noon, U.S. stocks first fell back and then quickly rose in the short term, and the three major U.S. stock indexes rose in the session.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>the US Dollar Index fluctuated upward, breaking 107.00 in the short term and then quickly returning to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by 107.30 in the early trading of US stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The yield of the benchmark 10-year US Treasury Bond kept an upward trend. After the minutes were published, it stood at 2.90%, once rising above 2.92%, setting a new daily high, with an intraday increase of more than 10 basis points, which was about 17 basis points higher than the low level in more than a month set by the intraday measurement of 2.75% in European stocks on Wednesday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>An article sorts out the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Federal Reserve meeting!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAn article sorts out the important highlights of the minutes of the overnight Federal Reserve meeting!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-07 07:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: At the June meeting, Fed officials believe that the July meeting may be suitable for rate hike at 75 basis points or 50 basis points; It will take time for inflation to drop to 2%, and rate hike may lead to a period of economic slowdown, but the key to full employment is to bring down inflation; There is a deep-rooted risk of high inflation at the moment, fearing that the May CPI suggests that inflation will last longer than previously expected; If inflation expectations get out of control, lowering inflation will pay a higher price. According to the minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday, July 6th, Eastern Time, at the monetary policy meeting in June, Fed officials admitted that rate hike may lead to a slowdown in economic growth, but believed that it may take rate hike to last longer to avoid high inflation becoming deep-rooted. Because the inflation outlook has worsened, interest rates need to be raised to restrictive levels that are deliberately slowing the economy.</p><p>At the same time, the minutes confirmed that the Fed will discuss at this month's meeting whether to continue the rate hike at 75 basis points or slow the magnitude to 50 basis points.</p><p>According to media comments, considering that the recent data shows that the economic growth is slightly slower, some investors believe that the hawkish stance reiterated by the Federal Reserve at the June meeting is outdated. This pushed the U.S. stock market higher in the intraday session, and the three major indexes that turned down more than once in the intraday session completely got rid of the decline.</p><p>July meeting considers whether to rate hike an additional 75 basis points</p><p>The Federal Reserve's June meeting decided that rate hike would be 75 basis points, the strongest rate hike in more than 27 years. The minutes of this meeting show that because, considering the very tight supply in the labor market, inflation is well above the 2% inflation target of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee, the FOMC, and the near-term inflation outlook has deteriorated since the May Fed meeting, almost all Fed policymakers agreed to a 75 basis point rate hike in June, with only one voting against it by supporting rate hike by 50 basis points.</p><p>In discussing possible policy actions at future meetings, officials continued to anticipate that the continuation of the rate hike would be appropriate in the future, and the summary specifically mentioned:</p><p>Participants decided that the next meeting (Wall Street Insight Note: i.e.<b>July Meeting</b>)<b>May fit rate hike 75 bps or 50 bps</b>。<b>Participants</b>It is agreed that the economic outlook is guaranteed for (monetary) policy to move into a restrictive position. And they<b>Recognize that if high inflationary pressures persist, the stance may even be more restrictive</b>(even more restrictive). It will take time for inflation to drop to 2% rate hike could lead to a period of economic slowdown</p><p>The minutes show that at the June meeting, Fed policymakers expected that it would take time to bring down inflation, and that keeping it down would pay the price of a possible slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Participants believe that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's epidemic prevention and other factors restricting the supply environment will affect the inflation outlook, and it may take some time for inflation to fall back to the Fed's target. Participants also determined that maintaining a strong labor market in bringing inflation down to 2% will depend on many factors affecting supply and demand. Participants recognized that firm policy could allow economic growth to slow for some time, but they expected that bringing inflation back to 2% would be key to achieving sustained full employment. There are deep-rooted risks of high inflationConcerns about the May CPI hinting at inflation lasting longer than previously expected</p><p>According to the minutes, the Fed policymakers at the meeting believed that because inflation was much higher than the Fed's target level, the Fed needed to change to a restrictive policy stance to achieve the dual goals of full employment and price stability. And, from a risk management perspective, because once inflation is higher than expected, the Fed can be in a better position to strengthen its restrictive efforts.</p><p>many participants decided that,<b>One of the big risks facing the (FOMC) committee now is</b>,<b>High inflation could become entrenched if the public begins to doubt whether the committee can ensure its determination to adjust its policy stance.</b>In this regard, participants emphasized that appropriately firm monetary policy, coupled with clear and effective communication, was essential to restoring price stability. In terms of inflation, Fed officials at the meeting pointed out that inflation is still too high and continues to be much higher than the long-term target of 2%.</p><p>Participants<b>worry</b>,<b>May CPI data suggest that inflationary pressures have not shown signs of abating</b>。 A number of people treat this as<b>Reinforcing the idea that inflation will last longer than they had previously expected</b>。 Inflation has upside risks such as commodity price increases If inflation expectations are out of control, lowering inflation will pay a higher price</p><p>When assessing the economy, Fed officials at the meeting emphasized that they are very concerned about inflation risks and closely monitor inflation and developments related to inflation expectations.</p><p>Most participants viewed the risk of inflation as upside, citing a number of associated risks, including ongoing supply bottlenecks, rising energy and commodity prices. Participants identified high uncertainty regarding economic growth in the coming years.</p><p>Most participants assessed that there are downward risks in the outlook of economic growth. The downward risks include that further tightening of the financial environment will have a greater negative impact on economic activities than expected, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's epidemic prevention on economic growth exceeds expectations.</p><p>In terms of inflation expectations, the minutes show,</p><p>While indicators of long-term inflation expectations from household surveys, professional forecasters, and market participants agree overall with the FOMC Committee's long-term inflation target of 2%,<b>Many participants worried that long-term inflation expectations could start to rise to levels that do not meet the 2% target. These participants pointed out that if inflation expectations get out of control, getting inflation back to the FOMC target will pay a higher price</b>。 Market reaction</p><p>After the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released at noon, U.S. stocks first fell back and then quickly rose in the short term, and the three major U.S. stock indexes rose in the session.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d417276ecc91e848c333fe109e392e\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>the US Dollar Index fluctuated upward, breaking 107.00 in the short term and then quickly returning to 107.00, approaching the high since December 2002 set by 107.30 in the early trading of US stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0996cbbf2789acffe0ee8b062ca07b1e\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The yield of the benchmark 10-year US Treasury Bond kept an upward trend. After the minutes were published, it stood at 2.90%, once rising above 2.92%, setting a new daily high, with an intraday increase of more than 10 basis points, which was about 17 basis points higher than the low level in more than a month set by the intraday measurement of 2.75% in European stocks on Wednesday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc9bfee7abd837e8a41feed40e5761\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664052","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1177613805","content_text":"摘要:6月会上美联储官员认为,7月会议可能适合加息75个基点或50个基点;通胀降至2%需要时间,加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓,但充分就业的关键是降通胀;目前有高通胀根深蒂固的风险,担心5月CPI暗示通胀会比之前预期持续得更久;若通胀预期失控,降通胀将付出更高代价。美东时间7月6日周三公布的会议纪要显示,6月货币政策会议上,美联储官员承认加息可能导致经济增长放慢,但认为,要避免高通胀变得根深蒂固,可能需要加息时间持续更久。因为通胀前景已恶化,需要让利率升至刻意让经济放缓的限制性水平。同时纪要确认了,联储将在本月的会议上讨论是继续加息75个基点,还是将幅度放缓到50个基点。媒体评论称,考虑到新近数据显示经济增长略为更加放缓,一些投资者认为,美联储在6月会上重申的鹰派立场已经过时。这推动美股盘中走高,盘中不止一次转跌的三大指数彻底摆脱跌势。7月会议考虑是否再加息75个基点美联储6月会议决定加息75个基点,为逾二十七年最大力度加息。本次会议纪要显示,因为考虑到劳动力市场供应非常紧张、通胀远高于美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的通胀目标2%、近期通胀前景自5月联储会议以来已经恶化,几乎所有联储决策者都同意6月加息75个基点,只有一人因支持加息50个基点而投反对票。在讨论未来几次会议可能采取的政策行动时,与会官员依然预期适合未来继续加息,纪要特别提到:与会者判定,下次会议(华尔街见闻注:即7月会议)可能适合加息75个基点或者50个基点。与会者一致认为,经济前景对(货币)政策步入限制性的立场有保障。而且他们认识到,如果高企的通胀压力持续,立场甚至可能要限制性更强(even more restrictive)。通胀降至2%需要时间 加息可能导致一段时间经济放缓纪要显示,6月会上,美联储决策者预计降低通胀需要时间,而且压低通胀将付出经济增长可能放缓的代价。与会者认为,俄乌冲突、中国防疫和其他限制供应环境的因素将影响通胀前景,让通胀回落到联储目标可能需要一些时间。与会者还判定,在让通胀降至2%的过程中,保持强劲的劳动力市场将取决于很多影响供需的因素。与会者认识到,坚定政策可能让经济增长一段时间内放缓,但他们预计,让通胀回到2%是实现持续充分就业的关键。有高通胀根深蒂固的风险 担心5月CPI暗示通胀比之前预期持续得更久纪要称,与会美联储决策者认为,由于通胀远高于联储目标水平,要实现充分就业和价格稳定的双重目标,美联储需要转变为限制性的政策立场。而且,从风险管理的角度看,因为一旦通胀高于预期,美联储就能处于加强限制性力度的更有利地位。很多(many)与会者判定,现在(FOMC)委员会面临的一大风险是,假如公众开始怀疑委员会能否确保调整政策立场的决心,高企的通胀可能变得根深蒂固。在这方面,与会者强调,适宜地坚定货币政策,加之清晰有效的沟通,都对恢复价格稳定至关重要。在通胀方面,与会联储官员指出,通胀仍旧太高,继续远高于长期目标2%。与会者担心,5月CPI数据暗示,通胀压力还未显示减弱的迹象。多人(a number of)将此视为强化了通胀会比他们之前预期的更持久这一观点。通胀有大宗商品涨价等上行风险 若通胀预期失控 降通胀将付出更高代价在评估经济时,与会美联储官员强调,他们非常关注通胀风险,密切监控通胀以及通胀预期相关的发展变化。大多数与会者认为通胀的风险偏上行,并提到多种相关风险,包括持续的供应瓶颈、能源和大宗商品价格上涨。与会者认定,未来几年经济增长的不确定性很高。大部分与会者评估认为,经济增长的前景有偏下行的风险,下行风险包括,金融环境进一步收紧会对经济活动造成比预期更大的负面影响,以及俄乌冲突和中国防疫对经济增长的影响超出预期。在通胀预期方面,纪要显示,虽然来自家庭调查、专业预测方和市场参与者的长期通胀预期指标总体和FOMC委员会的长期通胀目标2%保持一致,但很多与会者担心,长期通胀预期可能开始上行至不符合2%目标的水平。这些与会者指出,假如通胀预期变得失控,让通胀回落到FOMC目标将付出更高的代价。市场反应午盘时段美联储会议纪要公布后,美股先回落后很快短线拉升,三大美股指盘中齐涨。美元指数震荡上行,短线下破107.00后迅速重上107.00,逼近美股早盘时逼近107.30所创的2002年12月以来高位。基准10年期美国国债收益率保持升势,纪要公布后站上2.90%,一度升破2.92%刷新日高,日内升幅超过10个基点,较周三欧股盘中下测2.75%所创的一个多月来低位回升约17个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070278186,"gmtCreate":1657070331345,"gmtModify":1676535943875,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070278186","repostId":"2249531093","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070016652,"gmtCreate":1656983485676,"gmtModify":1676535926692,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070016652","repostId":"2249419340","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047016978,"gmtCreate":1656827322694,"gmtModify":1676535901157,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047016978","repostId":"2248136877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9044616288,"gmtCreate":1656742454744,"gmtModify":1676535888492,"author":{"id":"3577532473997426","authorId":"3577532473997426","name":"Smile31","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9127c4a230a62af3d9bd8f9a0eb69269","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577532473997426","idStr":"3577532473997426"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9044616288","repostId":"1164878609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164878609","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656718507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164878609?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-02 07:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | U.S. stocks got a thrilling start in the second half of the year, and most popular Chinese stocks went up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164878609","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要:美股下半年首日迎来上涨,半导体板块逆势下跌;热门中概股大多走高,新能源汽车股高开低走;已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章;370亿美元大采购!三大航企齐出手,拟购入近300架空客飞机","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: U.S. stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, and the semiconductor sector fell against the trend; Most popular Chinese stocks rose, and new energy vehicle stocks opened higher and went lower; deceased<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the U.S. Presidential Medal of Freedom; $37 Billion Big Purchase! The three major airlines have taken action and planned to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.<b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: U.S. stocks ushered in gains on the first day of the second half, and semiconductor sector bucked the trend</b></p><p>On the first trading day of the second half of the year, U.S. stocks rose. Although the intraday trend was tortuous, the three major indices finally closed stubbornly higher in the shock. By the close, the Dow rose 321.83 points, or 1.05%, to 31,097.26 points; The Nasdaq rose 99.11 points, or 0.90%, to 11,127.85 points; The S&P 500 rose 39.95 points, or 1.06 percent, to 3,825.33.</p><p>Mid-cap tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up more than 3%, Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>rose by more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>up 1.07%, Meta down 0.76%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>up 2.9%.</p><p>The chip sector has been hit hard, with several chipmakers saying that rising inflation and a cooling economy are reducing spending by consumers and businesses and that global chip demand will weaken.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell nearly 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Down 5.81%, Dutch chipmaker<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASM</a>plummeted 5.47%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>down nearly 3%.</p><p><b>Hot Chinese concept stocks are mostly higher, and new energy automobile stocks open higher and go lower</b></p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 1.26%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>rose by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>rose by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>up 5%, while JD.com rose 2.7%. Among the new car-building forces,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>down 4.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>down 1.59%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>down 1.66%.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 0.25%</b></p><p>The main indexes of European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 0.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 0.02%, while France's CAC40 index rose 0.14% and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.17%.</p><p><b>New York WTI crude closed 2.5% higher on Friday, up 0.8% for the week</b></p><p>WTI August crude oil futures closed up 2.52% at $108.43/barrel, getting rid of the low since last Thursday on Thursday; Brent September crude oil futures closed up 2.38% at $111.63/barrel, smoothing out most of Thursday's 3% drop. This week, U.S. oil rose by 0.8%, ending a two-week losing streak. Last week, Brent oil, which had zero ups and downs, rose by 2.3%. In June, U.S. oil fell by 7.8%, and Brent oil fell by 6.5%, ending six months of continuous gains, but both rose in the second quarter and the first half of the year.</p><p><b>New York gold futures fell below $1,800 at one point</b></p><p>Gold futures in New York closed lower on Friday, once falling below the key $1,800 mark during the session. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.80, or 0.3%, to close at $1,801.50 an ounce, the lowest closing price since February. On Friday, the price of the futures fell below $1,800 at one point, falling to a minimum of $1,783.40. Silver futures for September delivery fell 68 cents, or 3.4%, to close at $19.667 an ounce, the lowest close since July 2020.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Leading indicators suggest US economy is on the brink, recession is fast approaching</b></p><p>By now, a recession seems to be a consensus. Indeed, the Leading Indicator (LEI) of the World Conference Board suggests that a US recession may be fast approaching. The leading indicator includes a number of market and economic indicators, such as initial jobless claims, manufacturing surveys and stock prices. Matt Bush, an economist at Guggenheim, found that four consecutive declines in the monthly LEI usually indicate that the U.S. economy is already in recession. As of May, the LEI has fallen for three consecutive months. Given the decline in U.S. stocks and the decline in new orders in ISM manufacturing, there is a high possibility that LEI will fall again in June. The sign does not bode well for attempts to give the U.S. economy a soft landing.</p><p><b>Fed's 75 basis point rate hike in July is almost a certainty: dovish top official San Francisco Fed president joins support</b></p><p>Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, who has always been regarded as a dovish in the Fed, said that inflation in the United States is too high, and the Fed must keep the path of monetary policy tightening unchanged. \"I support a further rate hike of 75 basis points by the Fed in July\".</p><p><b>US ISM manufacturing hit a two-year low in June, with both new orders and employment indexes falling into contraction</b></p><p>On Friday, ISM released data showing that ISM manufacturing in the United States hit a two-year low in June, dragged down by weak new orders and falling into contraction. The inventory index is near its highest level since 2010. Supplier deliveries, order backlog indexes slipped, indicating that supply chain and capacity constraints appear to be easing. The ISM data is further evidence that demand for U.S. goods is slowing.</p><p><b>Eurozone reconciled CPI rose 8.6% year-on-year in June, ahead of expectations and continues to hit a record high</b></p><p>The euro zone's harmonized CPI in June was 8.6% year-on-year, expected to be 8.5%, and the previous value was 8.1%; The initial value of core harmonized CPI was 3.7% year-on-year, expected to be 3.9%, and the previous value was 3.8%.</p><p><b>OPEC crude oil production slides for second consecutive month in June</b></p><p>OPEC production fell by 120,000 barrels a day in June, according to media surveys. In addition to the UAE exceeding its target, Nigeria's output fell by 100,000 barrels per day in June, Saudi Arabia's output was about 210,000 barrels per day below its target quota, and Kuwait missed its target, with output falling by 50,000 barrels per day.</p><p><b>Several Northern Ireland gas and electricity supply giants announce significant price increases</b></p><p>Gas suppliers SSE Airtricity and Firmus Energy increased gas and electricity prices by 42.7% and 24.5% respectively, while Power suppliers Power NI and Click Energy increased their prices by 27.5% and 11% respectively. According to the report, suppliers themselves submitted attributed to high wholesale energy prices.</p><p><b>Venice announces entry fees for tourists from January 2023</b></p><p>Venturini, the cultural director of the city of Venice, Italy, announced that the entry fee will be imposed on visitors arriving and leaving the city centre and islands of Venice on the same day from January 16, 2023. At that time, travellers who do not stay in Venice will pay a fee of 3 euros to 10 euros to enter the city, depending on the reservation situation, and offenders will be fined between 50 euros and 300 euros. Local residents of Venice, students, commuters, relatives, and residents of the Veneto region do not have to pay a city fee.</p><p><b>Latest poll shows 71% of Americans don't want Biden running for president of *</b></p><p>According to The Hill, a new Harvard University CAPS-Harris poll shows that 71 percent of respondents believe Biden should not be running for a second term as president. Of those surveyed who said Biden shouldn't stay in the race, 45% said Biden is a bad president, about a third said it was because he was too old, and about a quarter said it was time for a change. In addition, 61% of respondents believe that former President Trump should not run again in 2024.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Cuts U.S. Mid-Year Growth Forecast</b></p><p>Economists at JPMorgan cut their midyear U.S. economic growth forecast as most of the U.S. data released this week showed weakness, most notably a slowdown in consumer spending. The bank lowered its second-quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 1% from 2.5% earlier, and cut its third-quarter GDP forecast to 1% from 2%.</p><p><b>Thousands of U.S. flights have been delayed or cancelled due to worker shortages and bad weather</b></p><p>As of 10:30 a.m. ET on July 1, more than 1,200 flights into or out of the United States had been delayed that day, and another 238 flights had been cancelled. It is reported that the delay and cancellation of flights occurred at the beginning of July in the United States. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), about 47.9 million people will travel from the 1st to the 4th local time, and about 3.55 million of them are expected to fly. Over the past week, thousands of flights have had their flight plans disrupted due to worker shortages and bad weather, despite airlines cutting flights located during the June-August summer peak by 15 per cent to ensure the remaining flights run properly.</p><p><b>New York State Senate passes bill to ban carrying firearms in 'sensitive places'</b></p><p>The U.S. Senate of New York passed a bill banning the carrying of firearms in \"sensitive places\" including Times Square and all public transportation facilities. According to the legislation, no one other than law enforcement, peace officers, active-duty military and public security personnel can carry firearms in \"sensitive places\", which include subways, trains, buses, ferries, government buildings, churches, schools, libraries, public playgrounds, parks, zoos, homeless shelters and polling stations. The bill will next be voted on in the state legislature, and if it passes, it will be sent to the New York governor's office to wait for the governor to sign it into official law.</p><p><b>U.S. Department of Defense Announces $820 Million in Additional Military Assistance for Ukraine</b></p><p>On July 1st, local time, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that it would provide $820 million in additional military assistance to Ukraine, including a new surface-to-air missile system and anti-artillery radar, and provide more ammunition for the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket launcher system. According to reports, the package includes $770 million in Ukraine Security Assistance Program funding, which allows the Defense Department to provide funds directly to contractors to provide weapons for Ukraine, and a $50 million presidential \"withdrawal authorization\" to allow weapons to be shipped out of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>Meta to shut down its cryptocurrency project Novi in September</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>The cryptocurrency project, which once caused the company's founder Mark Zuckerberg to be attacked in Congress, will now officially shut down the rest of the project. Meta said on its website, testing project Novi, that it would cease service on Sept. 1. Novi offers money transfers using Meta's own cryptocurrency digital wallet. Neither the Novi app nor Novi on WhatsApp will be available anymore, the company said. Starting July 21, users will no longer be able to top up their accounts and it is recommended to withdraw the balance \"as soon as possible\". After the beta period ends, users will not be able to access their transaction history or other data. A Meta spokesperson said the company does plan to use Novi's technology in future products, such as in its metaverse project.</p><p><b>Automotive industry decline continues GM Q2 sales plummet 15% but is expected to win sales crown</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The company's car sales fell 15% in the second quarter as a global chip shortage and supply chain disruptions impacted production, leaving nearly 100,000 vehicles waiting for parts, data showed Friday. GM said the company sold 582,401 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022, compared with 688,236 a year earlier. General Motors has long been the best-selling car brand in the United States, though the company ceded the throne to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motor</a>This is the first time GM has lost its home-grown car market sales crown since 1931. However, GM is still on track to reclaim the car sales championship this quarter, according to market researcher Cox Automotive, as industry-wide supply disruptions have also affected other automakers' inventories.</p><p><b>The late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the U.S. Presidential Medal of Freedom</b></p><p>On Friday local time, President Joe Biden announced the names of 17 recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, including the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. The award is the nation's highest civilian honor, and the White House says the recipient \"embodies the soul of the nation.\"</p><p><b>Amazon compromises with EU: adding 'unsubscribe' button for Prime paid service</b></p><p>After receiving complaints from several consumer groups around the world, Amazon has finally made adjustments to make it easy for users to cancel their subscriptions to the \"Amazon Prime\" service. This adjustment will apply to all EU websites, as well as desktop devices, mobile phones and tablets, with immediate effect.</p><p><b>$37 Billion Big Purchase! Three major airlines have taken action together to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft</b></p><p>Friday evening<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600115\">China Eastern Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>They have announced that they have signed aircraft purchase agreements with Airbus. The three companies have purchased a total of 292 A320NEO series aircraft, with a total amount of USD 37.2 billion. All three companies gave their own reasons for purchasing the machine. In the announcement,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>It is mentioned that based on the confidence in the future development of the civil aviation industry, the company needs to plan and reserve the fleet capacity in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00753\">Air China</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600029\">Southern Airlines</a>All mentioned that this aircraft transaction is in line with the fleet development strategy formulated by the Company in the 14th Five-Year Plan, which will help to enhance the market competitiveness of the Company.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | U.S. stocks got a thrilling start in the second half of the year, and most popular Chinese stocks went up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | U.S. stocks got a thrilling start in the second half of the year, and most popular Chinese stocks went up\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-02 07:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: U.S. stocks rose on the first day of the second half of the year, and the semiconductor sector fell against the trend; Most popular Chinese stocks rose, and new energy vehicle stocks opened higher and went lower; deceased<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the U.S. Presidential Medal of Freedom; $37 Billion Big Purchase! The three major airlines have taken action and planned to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft.<b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: U.S. stocks ushered in gains on the first day of the second half, and semiconductor sector bucked the trend</b></p><p>On the first trading day of the second half of the year, U.S. stocks rose. Although the intraday trend was tortuous, the three major indices finally closed stubbornly higher in the shock. By the close, the Dow rose 321.83 points, or 1.05%, to 31,097.26 points; The Nasdaq rose 99.11 points, or 0.90%, to 11,127.85 points; The S&P 500 rose 39.95 points, or 1.06 percent, to 3,825.33.</p><p>Mid-cap tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Up more than 3%, Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>rose by more than 1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>up 1.07%, Meta down 0.76%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>up 2.9%.</p><p>The chip sector has been hit hard, with several chipmakers saying that rising inflation and a cooling economy are reducing spending by consumers and businesses and that global chip demand will weaken.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONNN\">ON Semiconductor</a>Semiconductors fell nearly 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Down 5.81%, Dutch chipmaker<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASM</a>plummeted 5.47%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">STMicroelectronics</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>down nearly 3%.</p><p><b>Hot Chinese concept stocks are mostly higher, and new energy automobile stocks open higher and go lower</b></p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 1.26%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>rose by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>rose by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>up 5%, while JD.com rose 2.7%. Among the new car-building forces,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>down 4.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>down 1.59%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>down 1.66%.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 0.25%</b></p><p>The main indexes of European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX30 index rising 0.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 0.02%, while France's CAC40 index rose 0.14% and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.17%.</p><p><b>New York WTI crude closed 2.5% higher on Friday, up 0.8% for the week</b></p><p>WTI August crude oil futures closed up 2.52% at $108.43/barrel, getting rid of the low since last Thursday on Thursday; Brent September crude oil futures closed up 2.38% at $111.63/barrel, smoothing out most of Thursday's 3% drop. This week, U.S. oil rose by 0.8%, ending a two-week losing streak. Last week, Brent oil, which had zero ups and downs, rose by 2.3%. In June, U.S. oil fell by 7.8%, and Brent oil fell by 6.5%, ending six months of continuous gains, but both rose in the second quarter and the first half of the year.</p><p><b>New York gold futures fell below $1,800 at one point</b></p><p>Gold futures in New York closed lower on Friday, once falling below the key $1,800 mark during the session. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.80, or 0.3%, to close at $1,801.50 an ounce, the lowest closing price since February. On Friday, the price of the futures fell below $1,800 at one point, falling to a minimum of $1,783.40. Silver futures for September delivery fell 68 cents, or 3.4%, to close at $19.667 an ounce, the lowest close since July 2020.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><b>Leading indicators suggest US economy is on the brink, recession is fast approaching</b></p><p>By now, a recession seems to be a consensus. Indeed, the Leading Indicator (LEI) of the World Conference Board suggests that a US recession may be fast approaching. The leading indicator includes a number of market and economic indicators, such as initial jobless claims, manufacturing surveys and stock prices. Matt Bush, an economist at Guggenheim, found that four consecutive declines in the monthly LEI usually indicate that the U.S. economy is already in recession. As of May, the LEI has fallen for three consecutive months. Given the decline in U.S. stocks and the decline in new orders in ISM manufacturing, there is a high possibility that LEI will fall again in June. The sign does not bode well for attempts to give the U.S. economy a soft landing.</p><p><b>Fed's 75 basis point rate hike in July is almost a certainty: dovish top official San Francisco Fed president joins support</b></p><p>Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, who has always been regarded as a dovish in the Fed, said that inflation in the United States is too high, and the Fed must keep the path of monetary policy tightening unchanged. \"I support a further rate hike of 75 basis points by the Fed in July\".</p><p><b>US ISM manufacturing hit a two-year low in June, with both new orders and employment indexes falling into contraction</b></p><p>On Friday, ISM released data showing that ISM manufacturing in the United States hit a two-year low in June, dragged down by weak new orders and falling into contraction. The inventory index is near its highest level since 2010. Supplier deliveries, order backlog indexes slipped, indicating that supply chain and capacity constraints appear to be easing. The ISM data is further evidence that demand for U.S. goods is slowing.</p><p><b>Eurozone reconciled CPI rose 8.6% year-on-year in June, ahead of expectations and continues to hit a record high</b></p><p>The euro zone's harmonized CPI in June was 8.6% year-on-year, expected to be 8.5%, and the previous value was 8.1%; The initial value of core harmonized CPI was 3.7% year-on-year, expected to be 3.9%, and the previous value was 3.8%.</p><p><b>OPEC crude oil production slides for second consecutive month in June</b></p><p>OPEC production fell by 120,000 barrels a day in June, according to media surveys. In addition to the UAE exceeding its target, Nigeria's output fell by 100,000 barrels per day in June, Saudi Arabia's output was about 210,000 barrels per day below its target quota, and Kuwait missed its target, with output falling by 50,000 barrels per day.</p><p><b>Several Northern Ireland gas and electricity supply giants announce significant price increases</b></p><p>Gas suppliers SSE Airtricity and Firmus Energy increased gas and electricity prices by 42.7% and 24.5% respectively, while Power suppliers Power NI and Click Energy increased their prices by 27.5% and 11% respectively. According to the report, suppliers themselves submitted attributed to high wholesale energy prices.</p><p><b>Venice announces entry fees for tourists from January 2023</b></p><p>Venturini, the cultural director of the city of Venice, Italy, announced that the entry fee will be imposed on visitors arriving and leaving the city centre and islands of Venice on the same day from January 16, 2023. At that time, travellers who do not stay in Venice will pay a fee of 3 euros to 10 euros to enter the city, depending on the reservation situation, and offenders will be fined between 50 euros and 300 euros. Local residents of Venice, students, commuters, relatives, and residents of the Veneto region do not have to pay a city fee.</p><p><b>Latest poll shows 71% of Americans don't want Biden running for president of *</b></p><p>According to The Hill, a new Harvard University CAPS-Harris poll shows that 71 percent of respondents believe Biden should not be running for a second term as president. Of those surveyed who said Biden shouldn't stay in the race, 45% said Biden is a bad president, about a third said it was because he was too old, and about a quarter said it was time for a change. In addition, 61% of respondents believe that former President Trump should not run again in 2024.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Cuts U.S. Mid-Year Growth Forecast</b></p><p>Economists at JPMorgan cut their midyear U.S. economic growth forecast as most of the U.S. data released this week showed weakness, most notably a slowdown in consumer spending. The bank lowered its second-quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 1% from 2.5% earlier, and cut its third-quarter GDP forecast to 1% from 2%.</p><p><b>Thousands of U.S. flights have been delayed or cancelled due to worker shortages and bad weather</b></p><p>As of 10:30 a.m. ET on July 1, more than 1,200 flights into or out of the United States had been delayed that day, and another 238 flights had been cancelled. It is reported that the delay and cancellation of flights occurred at the beginning of July in the United States. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), about 47.9 million people will travel from the 1st to the 4th local time, and about 3.55 million of them are expected to fly. Over the past week, thousands of flights have had their flight plans disrupted due to worker shortages and bad weather, despite airlines cutting flights located during the June-August summer peak by 15 per cent to ensure the remaining flights run properly.</p><p><b>New York State Senate passes bill to ban carrying firearms in 'sensitive places'</b></p><p>The U.S. Senate of New York passed a bill banning the carrying of firearms in \"sensitive places\" including Times Square and all public transportation facilities. According to the legislation, no one other than law enforcement, peace officers, active-duty military and public security personnel can carry firearms in \"sensitive places\", which include subways, trains, buses, ferries, government buildings, churches, schools, libraries, public playgrounds, parks, zoos, homeless shelters and polling stations. The bill will next be voted on in the state legislature, and if it passes, it will be sent to the New York governor's office to wait for the governor to sign it into official law.</p><p><b>U.S. Department of Defense Announces $820 Million in Additional Military Assistance for Ukraine</b></p><p>On July 1st, local time, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that it would provide $820 million in additional military assistance to Ukraine, including a new surface-to-air missile system and anti-artillery radar, and provide more ammunition for the \"Haimas\" high-mobility multiple rocket launcher system. According to reports, the package includes $770 million in Ukraine Security Assistance Program funding, which allows the Defense Department to provide funds directly to contractors to provide weapons for Ukraine, and a $50 million presidential \"withdrawal authorization\" to allow weapons to be shipped out of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><b>Meta to shut down its cryptocurrency project Novi in September</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>The cryptocurrency project, which once caused the company's founder Mark Zuckerberg to be attacked in Congress, will now officially shut down the rest of the project. Meta said on its website, testing project Novi, that it would cease service on Sept. 1. Novi offers money transfers using Meta's own cryptocurrency digital wallet. Neither the Novi app nor Novi on WhatsApp will be available anymore, the company said. Starting July 21, users will no longer be able to top up their accounts and it is recommended to withdraw the balance \"as soon as possible\". After the beta period ends, users will not be able to access their transaction history or other data. A Meta spokesperson said the company does plan to use Novi's technology in future products, such as in its metaverse project.</p><p><b>Automotive industry decline continues GM Q2 sales plummet 15% but is expected to win sales crown</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The company's car sales fell 15% in the second quarter as a global chip shortage and supply chain disruptions impacted production, leaving nearly 100,000 vehicles waiting for parts, data showed Friday. GM said the company sold 582,401 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022, compared with 688,236 a year earlier. General Motors has long been the best-selling car brand in the United States, though the company ceded the throne to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motor</a>This is the first time GM has lost its home-grown car market sales crown since 1931. However, GM is still on track to reclaim the car sales championship this quarter, according to market researcher Cox Automotive, as industry-wide supply disruptions have also affected other automakers' inventories.</p><p><b>The late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs was posthumously awarded the U.S. Presidential Medal of Freedom</b></p><p>On Friday local time, President Joe Biden announced the names of 17 recipients of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, including the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. The award is the nation's highest civilian honor, and the White House says the recipient \"embodies the soul of the nation.\"</p><p><b>Amazon compromises with EU: adding 'unsubscribe' button for Prime paid service</b></p><p>After receiving complaints from several consumer groups around the world, Amazon has finally made adjustments to make it easy for users to cancel their subscriptions to the \"Amazon Prime\" service. This adjustment will apply to all EU websites, as well as desktop devices, mobile phones and tablets, with immediate effect.</p><p><b>$37 Billion Big Purchase! Three major airlines have taken action together to purchase nearly 300 Airbus aircraft</b></p><p>Friday evening<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600115\">China Eastern Airlines</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601111\">Air China</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">Southern Airlines</a>They have announced that they have signed aircraft purchase agreements with Airbus. The three companies have purchased a total of 292 A320NEO series aircraft, with a total amount of USD 37.2 billion. All three companies gave their own reasons for purchasing the machine. In the announcement,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEA\">Eastern Airlines</a>It is mentioned that based on the confidence in the future development of the civil aviation industry, the company needs to plan and reserve the fleet capacity in advance.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00753\">Air China</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600029\">Southern Airlines</a>All mentioned that this aircraft transaction is in line with the fleet development strategy formulated by the Company in the 14th Five-Year Plan, which will help to enhance the market competitiveness of the Company.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164878609","content_text":"摘要:美股下半年首日迎来上涨,半导体板块逆势下跌;热门中概股大多走高,新能源汽车股高开低走;已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章;370亿美元大采购!三大航企齐出手,拟购入近300架空客飞机。海外市场收盘:美股下半年首日迎来上涨,半导体板块逆势下跌下半年第一个交易日,美股迎来上涨。虽然盘中走势曲折,但三大指数最终在震荡中顽强收涨。截止收盘,道指涨321.83点,涨幅为1.05%,报31097.26点;纳指涨99.11点,涨幅为0.90%,报11127.85点;标普500指数涨39.95点,涨幅为1.06%,报3825.33点。大型科技股中亚马逊涨逾3%,苹果、特斯拉涨超1%,微软上涨1.07%,Meta下跌0.76%,奈飞上涨2.9%。芯片板块受到重创,几家芯片制造商纷纷表示,通胀上升和经济降温正在减少消费者和企业的支出,全球芯片需求将减弱。安森美半导体跌近7%,台积电大跌5.81%,荷兰芯片制造商阿斯麦大跌5.47%,英伟达跌超4%,意法半导体、高通跌超3%,美光科技下跌近3%。热门中概股大多走高,新能源汽车股高开低走热门中概股多数上涨,纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨1.26%。拼多多、哔哩哔哩涨超4%,知乎、爱奇艺涨超3%,京东、阿里巴巴涨超2%,斗鱼上涨5%,京东上涨2.7%。造车新势力中,小鹏汽车下跌4.6%,理想汽车下跌1.59%,蔚来下跌1.66%。欧股收盘涨跌不一,德国DAX30指数涨0.25%欧股收盘主要指数收盘涨跌不一,德国DAX30指数涨0.25%,英国富时100指数跌0.02%,法国CAC40指数涨0.14%,欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.17%。纽约WTI原油周五收高2.5%,本周上涨0.8%WTI 8月原油期货收涨2.52%,报108.43美元/桶,摆脱周四所创的上周四以来低位;布伦特9月原油期货收涨2.38%,报111.63美元/桶,抹平周四跌3%的多数跌幅。本周美油累涨0.8%,结束两周连跌,上周零涨跌的布油累涨2.3%。6月美油累跌7.8%,布油累跌6.5%,终结六个月连涨,不过二季度和上半年都累涨。纽约黄金期货一度跌破1800美元 纽约黄金期货价格周五收跌,盘中一度跌破关键的1800美元关口。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格下跌5.80美元,跌幅为0.3%,收于每盎司1801.50美元,创2月以来的最低收盘价。周五盘中,该期货价格一度跌破1800美元,最低下降至1783.40美元。9月交割的白银期货价格下跌68美分,跌幅为3.4%,收于每盎司19.667美元,创2020年7月以来的最低收盘价。国际宏观领先指标显示美国经济濒临险境,衰退正迅速逼近到现在为止,经济衰退似乎已成共识。事实上,世界大型企业研究会的领先指标(LEI)表明美国经济衰退或许正迅速逼近。该领先指标包括了诸多市场和经济指标,例如首次申领失业救济人数、制造业调查和股票价格等。Guggenheim的经济学家马特·布什发现,月度LEI连续四次下降通常表明美国经济已经陷入衰退。截至5月份,LEI已经连降三个月。鉴于美股下跌和ISM制造业新订单的下滑,6月LEI再度下降的可能性很大。这个迹象对于试图让美国经济软着陆的努力来说不是个好兆头。美联储7月加息75基点几乎板上钉钉:鸽派高官旧金山联储主席加入支持行列向来被视为美联储内鸽派的旧金山联储主席戴利表示,美国通胀太高,美联储必须维持货币政策紧缩路径不变。“我支持美联储在7月份进一步加息75个基点”。美国6月ISM制造业创两年新低,新订单和就业指数均陷入萎缩周五,ISM公布的数据显示,受新订单疲软、陷入收缩拖累,美国6月ISM制造业创两年新低。库存指数接近2010年以来的最高水平。供应商交付、订单积压指数下滑,表明供应链和产能限制似乎正在缓解。ISM数据进一步证明了美国商品的需求正在放缓。欧元区6月调和CPI同比增长8.6%,高于预期,续创历史新高欧元区6月调和CPI同比8.6%,预期8.5%,前值8.1%;核心调和CPI同比初值3.7%,预期3.9%,前值3.8%。OPEC 6月原油产量连续第二月下滑根据媒体调查,石油输出国组织6月份的产量每天减少了12万桶。除了阿联酋超额完成任务以外,尼日利亚6月日产量减少了10万桶,沙特日产量比其目标配额低大约21万桶,科威特也未能达到其目标,日产量下降了5万桶。北爱尔兰多家天然气和电力供应巨头宣布大幅涨价天然气供应商SSE Airtricity和Firmus Energy分别将天然气和电力价格提高了42.7%和24.5%,电力供应商 Power NI和Click Energy 则将天然气和电力价格分别提高了27.5%和11%。 报道称,供应商自己提交归因于能源批发价格居高不下。威尼斯宣布从2023年1月起对游客征收进城费意大利威尼斯市文化局长文图里尼宣布,将从2023年1月16日起对当天到达、离开威尼斯市中心和岛屿的游客征收进城费。届时,不在威尼斯市内住宿的旅客将根据预定情况,支付3欧元到10欧元进城费,违者将被罚款50欧元到300欧元。威尼斯本地居民、学生、通勤人员、亲属和威尼托大区居民无需支付进城费。最新民调显示71%美国人不希望拜登竞选连任总统据《国会山报》报道,一项最新的哈佛大学CAPS-Harris民意调查显示,71%的受访者认为拜登不应该参加第二个总统任期的竞选。在认为拜登不应该继续参选的受访者中,45%的人表示拜登是一个糟糕的总统,大约三分之一的人表示因为他年纪太大了,大约四分之一的人表示是时候做出改变了。此外,61%的受访者认为,前总统特朗普不应该在2024年再度参选。摩根大通下调美国年中经济增长预期摩根大通经济学家下调了美国年中经济增长预期,因本周美国公布的大多数数据表现疲软,其中最明显的是消费者支出放缓。该行将美国第二季度GDP预期从此前的2.5%下调至1%,将第三季度GDP预期从2%下调至1%。受工人短缺和恶劣天气影响,美国上千航班被延误或取消截至美国东部时间7月1日上午10点30分,当日已有超过1200个进出美国或经停美国的航班被延误,另有238个航班被取消。据悉,航班的延误和取消发生在美国7月初小长期来临之际。据美国汽车协会(AAA)预计,当地时间1日至4日将有约4790万人出行,其中约355万人预计将乘坐飞机。在过去的一周里,尽管航空公司将位于6月至8月夏季高峰期的航班减少了15%以确保剩余航班的正常运行,但由于工人短缺和恶劣天气的影响,仍有数千个航班的飞行计划被扰乱。美国纽约州参议院通过法案,禁止在“敏感场所”携带枪支美国纽约州参议院通过法案,禁止在包括时报广场和所有公共交通设施等“敏感场所”携带枪支。根据立法,除执法人员、治安人员、现役军人和公安人员外,其他人不能在“敏感场所”携带枪支,其中包括地铁、火车、公共汽车、渡轮、政府大楼、教堂、学校、图书馆、公共游乐场、公园、动物园、流浪者收容所和投票站。该法案下一步将在州议会进行投票,若投票通过,将被送至纽约州长办公室等待州长签署成为正式法律。美国国防部宣布向乌克兰提供8.2亿美元额外军事援助当地时间7月1日,美国国防部宣布向乌克兰提供8.2亿美元的额外军事援助,其中包括新的地对空导弹系统和反炮兵雷达,并为“海马斯”高机动性多管火箭炮系统提供更多弹药。据介绍,该计划包括7.7亿美元的乌克兰安全援助计划资金,允许国防部直接向承包商提供资金,为乌克兰提供武器,以及5000万美元的总统“提款授权”,允许从美国库存中运出武器。公司新闻Meta将在9月关闭其加密货币项目NoviMeta Platforms的加密货币项目曾经令该公司创始人马克·扎克伯格在国会饱受攻击,现在,该项目的剩余部分也将正式关闭。Meta在测试项目Novi其网站上表示,将于9月1日停止服务。Novi使用Meta自己的加密货币数字钱包提供转账服务。该公司表示,Novi应用程序和WhatsApp上的Novi都将不再可用。从7月21日开始,用户将无法再向他们的帐户充值,建议“尽快”提取余额。在测试期结束后,用户将无法访问其交易历史记录或其他数据。Meta发言人表示,该公司确实计划在未来产品中使用Novi的技术,例如在其元宇宙项目中。汽车行业颓势仍在持续 通用Q2销量大跌15% 但有望问鼎销售桂冠通用汽车周五公布的数据显示,该公司二季度汽车销量下降了15%,原因是全球芯片短缺和供应链中断影响了生产,导致近10万辆汽车在等待零部件。通用表示,公司2022年二季度汽车销量为582,401辆,而去年同期则为688,236辆。通用汽车长期以来都是美国最畅销的汽车品牌,不过该公司去年将这一宝座拱手让给了丰田汽车,这也是通用自1931年以来首次丢失美国本土汽车市场销售桂冠。然而,根据市场研究机构Cox Automotive的数据,通用当季仍有望夺回汽车销售冠军,因为全行业的供应中断同样影响到了其他汽车制造商的库存。已故苹果联合创始人乔布斯被追授美国总统自由勋章当地时间周五,美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)宣布了17名总统自由勋章获得者的名单,其中包括已故苹果公司联合创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)。该奖项是美国最高平民荣誉,白宫称获奖者“体现了国家的灵魂”。亚马逊向欧盟妥协:为Prime付费服务增加“取消订阅”按钮在遭到全球多家消费者团体的投诉后,亚马逊终于做出调整,让用户轻松地取消对“Amazon Prime”服务的订阅。这一调整将适用于所有欧盟网站,以及台式设备、手机和平板电脑,且立即生效。370亿美元大采购!三大航企齐出手,拟购入近300架空客飞机周五晚间中国东航、中国国航、南方航空纷纷公告与空客签订购机协议,三家公司合计采购A320NEO系列飞机共292架,合计金额372亿美元。三家公司均给出了各自的购机理由,在公告中,东方航空提到,基于对于民航业未来发展的信心,公司需提前对机队运力进行规划和储备。中国国航及南方航空均提到,本次飞机交易符合本公司十四五规划制定的机队发展策略,有助于增强本公司市场竞争力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}