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YongGuang

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- YongGuangYongGuang
  ·2021-09-17
  Okay
  Soul torture of U.S. money market: How to observe the tightness of liquidity?
  摘要美国货币市场的融资流动性衡量的是企业或者金融机构在货币市场上获得短期批发融资的难易程度。一般而言，如果融资流动性出现问题，企业、机构为获取“现金”而趋同性地选择卖出某类金融资产时，该金融资产的市
  Soul torture of U.S. money market: How to observe the tightness of liquidity?
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- YongGuangYongGuang
  ·2021-09-10
  ?
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- YongGuangYongGuang
  ·2021-09-09
  Yy
  Multiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!
  美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报
  Multiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!
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- YongGuangYongGuang
  ·2021-09-03
  ?
  Multiple risks are coming, and US stocks will usher in great turmoil in September?
  伴随9月到来，美股市场正面对着越来越多的潜在风险。
  Multiple risks are coming, and US stocks will usher in great turmoil in September?
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- YongGuangYongGuang
  ·2021-08-27
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- YongGuangYongGuang
  ·2021-08-25
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- YongGuangYongGuang
  ·2021-08-12
  ?
  [Focus] Micron Technology falls over 7% after Morgan Stanley downgrades its rating.
  8月12日，美光科技盘中跌超7%，此前摩根士丹利将美光科技评级降至“持有”。此前该公司首席执行官Mehrotra指出，公司预计DRAM和NAND内存芯片的供应在2022年将保持紧张，预计2021年的
  [Focus] Micron Technology falls over 7% after Morgan Stanley downgrades its rating.
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- YongGuangYongGuang
  ·2021-08-07
  Bj
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- YongGuangYongGuang
  ·2021-07-30
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- YongGuangYongGuang
  ·2021-07-30
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14:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Soul torture of U.S. money market: How to observe the tightness of liquidity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169468802","media":"静观金融","summary":"摘要\n美国货币市场的融资流动性衡量的是企业或者金融机构在货币市场上获得短期批发融资的难易程度。一般而言，如果融资流动性出现问题，企业、机构为获取“现金”而趋同性地选择卖出某类金融资产时，该金融资产的市","content":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Financing liquidity in the U.S. money market measures how easy it is for an enterprise or financial institution to obtain short-term wholesale financing in the money market.</b>Generally speaking, if there is a problem with financing liquidity, and enterprises and institutions choose to sell certain financial assets in order to obtain \"cash\", the market liquidity of the financial assets will drop greatly, and the asset price will also drop rapidly. Therefore, it can be said that financing liquidity is the basis of market liquidity.</p><p><b>The main body of the U.S. money market.</b>We can understand the US money market as: the lenders are fiscal authorities (short-term Treasury Bond) and dealers (whose financing needs mainly come from market-making and financing for clients such as hedge funds), while the lenders are mainly banks and money market funds.</p><p><b>The U.S. Money Market: The Important Function and \"Passive\" Status of the Federal Reserve.</b>When the Fed acts as an infuser, the policy instruments it uses are the reserve interest rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo instrument (ON RRP). Both policy tools are initiated by the counterparty, which is equivalent to the counterparty taking the initiative to deposit excess \"money\" in the Federal Reserve. When the Federal Reserve acts as the lender of funds, it is actually when the Federal Reserve is fulfilling its obligations as a \"lender of last resort\". As long as the bank provides collateral as required, the Fed will discount the window to lend money to the bank at the discount window rate (DW). In July 2021, the Federal Reserve newly established a standing repo facility (SRF), that is, on the premise of meeting collateral requirements, the Federal Reserve will lend funds at the lowest SRF interest rate in the repo market.</p><p><b>Supply and demand of financing liquidity: The lenders are fiscal authorities (short-term Treasury Bond) and dealers (whose financing needs mainly come from market making and providing financing for clients such as hedge funds), while the lenders are mainly banks (general HQLA asset portion + FHLBs) and money market funds.</b>For the main lender banks HQLA portfolio and money market funds, they generally have three asset options: lending funds to the Treasury (buying US debt), lending funds through the repo market and lending funds to the Federal Reserve, but the interest rates of lending funds in the latter two markets are not the same. Bank HQLA Portfolio In the Repo market, the interest rate at which funds are borrowed is the General Collateral Repo Rate (GC Repo). The interest rate at which money market funds lend money in the Repo market is the Tri-party Repo rate. The interest rates at which they lend funds to the Federal Reserve are IOR and ONRRP respectively, which are the two policy rates that the Federal Reserve controls the overnight interest rate market.</p><p><b>Soul torture of U.S. money market: How to observe the tightness of liquidity? If a money market fund uses the Fed's overnight reverse repo tool, it means that it has no better asset choice, and the needs of major financers have been met.</b>It should be pointed out that the absolute amount of reserves does not reflect the tightness of liquidity in the money market. In the stage of reserve decline, it can be a period of loose liquidity in the money market; The stage of rising reserves may also be a period of liquidity tightening in the money market. We need to look at the use of the Fed's reverse repo tool to judge money market liquidity.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Domestic investors are often confused about the liquidity transmission mechanism of the US dollar, and we think that we should only consider the whole thing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The internal connections between the banking system, the non-banking system and the fiscal authorities can piece together a more complete picture of US dollar liquidity. In view of this, we will use three reports to comb the US dollar liquidity research framework. In the third chapter, we describe how to judge and evaluate the environment of U.S. money market flows.</p><p><b>Our Definition of Liquidity in the U.S. Money Market</b></p><p>The term \"liquidity\" is widely used in the discussion of financial markets. To avoid ambiguity, we first need to define the liquidity mentioned in this report: it refers to the financing liquidity of the U.S. money market, which is used to measure the ease with which an enterprise or financial institution can obtain short-term financing in the money market.</p><p>In addition to financing liquidity, there is also \"market liquidity\", which is used to measure the difficulty of enterprises, financial institutions, etc. selling financial assets for \"cash\". Generally speaking, if there is a problem with financing liquidity, and enterprises and institutions choose to sell certain financial assets in order to obtain \"cash\", the market liquidity of the financial assets will drop greatly, and the asset price will also drop rapidly. Therefore, it can be said that financing liquidity is the basis of market liquidity.</p><p>Under normal circumstances, the better the financing liquidity, the better the market liquidity. The easier it is for a financial intermediary responsible for matching transactions to raise funds from the money market, the more flexible its balance sheet will be, and it will be easier to buy assets that others sell or sell assets that others want. This phenomenon is more obvious in markets such as U.S. debt that rely on trading intermediaries for transactions.</p><p><b>II. US Money Market: The Important Function and \"Passive\" Status of the Federal Reserve</b></p><p>To understand the looseness or tightness of financing liquidity, the first thing we need to understand is the participants and hierarchical structure of the US money market: that is, who is the integrator? Who is the melting side? What markets do you borrow money through? In order to simplify the matter, we have focused our discussion on the fiscal authorities, the monetary authorities (the Federal Reserve) and the major financial institutions. Under such a framework, the money market can be understood as: the lenders are fiscal authorities (short-term Treasury Bond) and dealers (whose financing needs mainly come from market-making and financing for hedge funds and other customers), while the lenders are mainly banks (because it does not affect the overall framework, this article does not list the federal housing loan bank separately) and money market funds.</p><p>Due to Basel III's Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) regulations, banks are required to hold an equal number of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) based on their expected net cash outflows over the next 30 days. HQLA mainly consists of reserves, Treasury Bond, and short-term buybacks with Treasury Bond as collateral. Because some banks hold large amounts of short-term U.S. debt and overnight buybacks in their HQLAs, banks play an important role in the money market.</p><p>In the entire currency market, the Federal Reserve has an extremely special position. Through different policy tools, it takes on the role of financial integrator and financial lender at the same time. When the Federal Reserve acts as an infuser, the policy instruments it uses are the reserve interest rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo instrument (ON RRP). Both policy tools are initiated by the counterparty, which is equivalent to the counterparty taking the initiative to deposit excess \"money\" in the Federal Reserve. This forms the bottom of the interest rate of funds lent by banks (except FHLBs) and repo market lenders (mainly money market funds). Because their best-quality counterparty (the Federal Reserve) is willing to lend funds to them through IOR and ON RRP, forcing other capital-demanding parties to pay higher interest rates to raise funds.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve acts as the lender of funds, it is actually when the Federal Reserve is fulfilling its obligations as a \"lender of last resort\". As long as the bank provides collateral as required, the Fed will discount the window to lend money to the bank at the discount window rate (DW). In July 2021, the Federal Reserve newly established a standing repo facility (SRF), that is, on the premise of meeting collateral requirements, the Federal Reserve will lend funds at the lowest SRF interest rate in the repo market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4f071b8fe2f51ee36be82475032753\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Supply and Demand of Financing Liquidity</b></p><p>The fiscal authority, one of the money market fund integrators, mainly raises funds in the money market by issuing short-term Treasury Bond, which is easy to observe and track. In contrast, dealers' financing needs in the money market mainly have two purposes: (1) market making; (2) providing financing services to its customers. In fact, the demand for these two items is not stable, such as market-making demand. When the issuance of U.S. debt is large or investors' interest in U.S. debt is limited, it will cause additional financing demand caused by traders due to the increase of inventory. Under the above circumstances, the issuance plan of the Ministry of Finance, the yield difference between US debt and other sovereign countries, and the exchange rate of the US dollar will all have an impact on the financing needs of traders. Furthermore, the financing needs of this part cannot be accurately tracked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbb1b8ebabe3a1c114d4dc036c652d20\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There is an obvious hierarchical relationship between the lenders of money market funds. For the main lender banks HQLA portfolio and money market funds, they generally have three asset options: lending funds to the Treasury (buying US debt), lending funds through the repo market and lending funds to the Federal Reserve, but the interest rates of lending funds in the latter two markets are not the same. Bank HQLA Portfolio In the Repo market, the interest rate at which funds are borrowed is the General Collateral Repo Rate (GC Repo). The interest rate at which money market funds lend money in the Repo market is the Tri-party Repo rate. The interest rates at which they lend funds to the Federal Reserve are IOR and ONRRP respectively, which are the two policy rates that the Federal Reserve controls the overnight interest rate market.</p><p>As the two most important lenders in the money market, the HQLA portfolio of banks and money market funds are huge. By the end of 2020, the HQLA portfolio of JP Morgan alone was around 600 billion US dollars, and the HQLA portfolio of the entire banking system was even larger. In addition, money market funds currently have more than $4 trillion under management at the end of Q1 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b90620a0b20d7307a0d9015ea2c79fb\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>IV. The soul torture of the US money market: how to observe the tightness of liquidity?</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, for the HQLA portfolio of banks, at least IOR income should be obtained when lending funds in the money market; For money market funds, when raising funds in the money market, they should at least get ON RRP income. Of course, for money market funds, sometimes due to the consideration of intraday liquidity, sometimes even though the short-term U.S. bond yield is lower than ON RRP, they will also hold some short-term U.S. bonds.</p><p>Then, if money market funds start heavily using the Fed's overnight reverse repo vehicle for ON RRP returns, they can conclude that they have no better asset options: neither the Treasury nor dealers need to lend money to them in the money market. In this case, we can think that the liquidity of the overnight money market is abundant, and the needs of major financing parties have been met.</p><p>As shown in Figure 4, money market funds basically did not use the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool from 2018 to March 2020 (before the global financial market turmoil), indicating that they lent a large amount of funds to dealers and the Ministry of Finance (to purchase short-term U.S. debt), and there were no remaining funds to repurchase and lend to the Fed. In contrast, after March 2021, money market funds began to lend a large amount of funds to the Federal Reserve, and traders and the Treasury Department had no demand for money market fund funds.</p><p>Back in 2018, the major financing parties in the U.S. money market had a higher demand for funds. For the Treasury, the issuance of U.S. debt began to accelerate. For dealers, the demand for its two main financing businesses has also risen at the same time: (1) the demand for market-making financing has increased greatly, and it can be seen that the net position of U.S. debt of primary dealers has increased from 2018 to 2019; (2) The demand for repo financing, as measured by SOFR transaction volume, is also rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59a82ef6b10008a8e017429c7e6d04d\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72c4fc914e4cb2cacae12b11ed535aae\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57d881951cceed4d8417a1caef6c66d4\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If we look at the lenders of money markets, the scale of money market funds is expanding in 2018-2019. But against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, the banking system has also contracted, causing the size of the entire HQLA portfolio of banks to shrink. As the imbalance between supply and demand in the money market continues to grow severe, a spike in interest rates occurred in the repo market in September 2019. The Federal Reserve has balanced the supply and demand of money market funds by opening up repo instruments and buying short-term Treasury Bond.</p><p>It should be pointed out that the absolute amount of reserves does not reflect the tightness of liquidity in the money market. In the phase of reserve decline, it may be a period of loose liquidity in the money market; The stage of rising reserves may also be a period of liquidity tightening in the money market. We need to look at the use of the Fed's reverse repo tool to judge money market liquidity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1bcc3911dcec07087d56f674e3bba2\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79bd2eb7c7b4785fbbc31a13c5a8bfa7\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>(1) Lack of understanding of the Fed's monetary policy framework</p><p>(2) Changes in monetary policy of the Federal Reserve exceed expectations</p>","source":"lsy1571618842096","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Soul torture of U.S. money market: How to observe the tightness of liquidity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoul torture of U.S. money market: How to observe the tightness of liquidity?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">静观金融</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 14:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Financing liquidity in the U.S. money market measures how easy it is for an enterprise or financial institution to obtain short-term wholesale financing in the money market.</b>Generally speaking, if there is a problem with financing liquidity, and enterprises and institutions choose to sell certain financial assets in order to obtain \"cash\", the market liquidity of the financial assets will drop greatly, and the asset price will also drop rapidly. Therefore, it can be said that financing liquidity is the basis of market liquidity.</p><p><b>The main body of the U.S. money market.</b>We can understand the US money market as: the lenders are fiscal authorities (short-term Treasury Bond) and dealers (whose financing needs mainly come from market-making and financing for clients such as hedge funds), while the lenders are mainly banks and money market funds.</p><p><b>The U.S. Money Market: The Important Function and \"Passive\" Status of the Federal Reserve.</b>When the Fed acts as an infuser, the policy instruments it uses are the reserve interest rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo instrument (ON RRP). Both policy tools are initiated by the counterparty, which is equivalent to the counterparty taking the initiative to deposit excess \"money\" in the Federal Reserve. When the Federal Reserve acts as the lender of funds, it is actually when the Federal Reserve is fulfilling its obligations as a \"lender of last resort\". As long as the bank provides collateral as required, the Fed will discount the window to lend money to the bank at the discount window rate (DW). In July 2021, the Federal Reserve newly established a standing repo facility (SRF), that is, on the premise of meeting collateral requirements, the Federal Reserve will lend funds at the lowest SRF interest rate in the repo market.</p><p><b>Supply and demand of financing liquidity: The lenders are fiscal authorities (short-term Treasury Bond) and dealers (whose financing needs mainly come from market making and providing financing for clients such as hedge funds), while the lenders are mainly banks (general HQLA asset portion + FHLBs) and money market funds.</b>For the main lender banks HQLA portfolio and money market funds, they generally have three asset options: lending funds to the Treasury (buying US debt), lending funds through the repo market and lending funds to the Federal Reserve, but the interest rates of lending funds in the latter two markets are not the same. Bank HQLA Portfolio In the Repo market, the interest rate at which funds are borrowed is the General Collateral Repo Rate (GC Repo). The interest rate at which money market funds lend money in the Repo market is the Tri-party Repo rate. The interest rates at which they lend funds to the Federal Reserve are IOR and ONRRP respectively, which are the two policy rates that the Federal Reserve controls the overnight interest rate market.</p><p><b>Soul torture of U.S. money market: How to observe the tightness of liquidity? If a money market fund uses the Fed's overnight reverse repo tool, it means that it has no better asset choice, and the needs of major financers have been met.</b>It should be pointed out that the absolute amount of reserves does not reflect the tightness of liquidity in the money market. In the stage of reserve decline, it can be a period of loose liquidity in the money market; The stage of rising reserves may also be a period of liquidity tightening in the money market. We need to look at the use of the Fed's reverse repo tool to judge money market liquidity.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Domestic investors are often confused about the liquidity transmission mechanism of the US dollar, and we think that we should only consider the whole thing<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>The internal connections between the banking system, the non-banking system and the fiscal authorities can piece together a more complete picture of US dollar liquidity. In view of this, we will use three reports to comb the US dollar liquidity research framework. In the third chapter, we describe how to judge and evaluate the environment of U.S. money market flows.</p><p><b>Our Definition of Liquidity in the U.S. Money Market</b></p><p>The term \"liquidity\" is widely used in the discussion of financial markets. To avoid ambiguity, we first need to define the liquidity mentioned in this report: it refers to the financing liquidity of the U.S. money market, which is used to measure the ease with which an enterprise or financial institution can obtain short-term financing in the money market.</p><p>In addition to financing liquidity, there is also \"market liquidity\", which is used to measure the difficulty of enterprises, financial institutions, etc. selling financial assets for \"cash\". Generally speaking, if there is a problem with financing liquidity, and enterprises and institutions choose to sell certain financial assets in order to obtain \"cash\", the market liquidity of the financial assets will drop greatly, and the asset price will also drop rapidly. Therefore, it can be said that financing liquidity is the basis of market liquidity.</p><p>Under normal circumstances, the better the financing liquidity, the better the market liquidity. The easier it is for a financial intermediary responsible for matching transactions to raise funds from the money market, the more flexible its balance sheet will be, and it will be easier to buy assets that others sell or sell assets that others want. This phenomenon is more obvious in markets such as U.S. debt that rely on trading intermediaries for transactions.</p><p><b>II. US Money Market: The Important Function and \"Passive\" Status of the Federal Reserve</b></p><p>To understand the looseness or tightness of financing liquidity, the first thing we need to understand is the participants and hierarchical structure of the US money market: that is, who is the integrator? Who is the melting side? What markets do you borrow money through? In order to simplify the matter, we have focused our discussion on the fiscal authorities, the monetary authorities (the Federal Reserve) and the major financial institutions. Under such a framework, the money market can be understood as: the lenders are fiscal authorities (short-term Treasury Bond) and dealers (whose financing needs mainly come from market-making and financing for hedge funds and other customers), while the lenders are mainly banks (because it does not affect the overall framework, this article does not list the federal housing loan bank separately) and money market funds.</p><p>Due to Basel III's Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) regulations, banks are required to hold an equal number of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) based on their expected net cash outflows over the next 30 days. HQLA mainly consists of reserves, Treasury Bond, and short-term buybacks with Treasury Bond as collateral. Because some banks hold large amounts of short-term U.S. debt and overnight buybacks in their HQLAs, banks play an important role in the money market.</p><p>In the entire currency market, the Federal Reserve has an extremely special position. Through different policy tools, it takes on the role of financial integrator and financial lender at the same time. When the Federal Reserve acts as an infuser, the policy instruments it uses are the reserve interest rate (IOR) and the overnight reverse repo instrument (ON RRP). Both policy tools are initiated by the counterparty, which is equivalent to the counterparty taking the initiative to deposit excess \"money\" in the Federal Reserve. This forms the bottom of the interest rate of funds lent by banks (except FHLBs) and repo market lenders (mainly money market funds). Because their best-quality counterparty (the Federal Reserve) is willing to lend funds to them through IOR and ON RRP, forcing other capital-demanding parties to pay higher interest rates to raise funds.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve acts as the lender of funds, it is actually when the Federal Reserve is fulfilling its obligations as a \"lender of last resort\". As long as the bank provides collateral as required, the Fed will discount the window to lend money to the bank at the discount window rate (DW). In July 2021, the Federal Reserve newly established a standing repo facility (SRF), that is, on the premise of meeting collateral requirements, the Federal Reserve will lend funds at the lowest SRF interest rate in the repo market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4f071b8fe2f51ee36be82475032753\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Supply and Demand of Financing Liquidity</b></p><p>The fiscal authority, one of the money market fund integrators, mainly raises funds in the money market by issuing short-term Treasury Bond, which is easy to observe and track. In contrast, dealers' financing needs in the money market mainly have two purposes: (1) market making; (2) providing financing services to its customers. In fact, the demand for these two items is not stable, such as market-making demand. When the issuance of U.S. debt is large or investors' interest in U.S. debt is limited, it will cause additional financing demand caused by traders due to the increase of inventory. Under the above circumstances, the issuance plan of the Ministry of Finance, the yield difference between US debt and other sovereign countries, and the exchange rate of the US dollar will all have an impact on the financing needs of traders. Furthermore, the financing needs of this part cannot be accurately tracked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbb1b8ebabe3a1c114d4dc036c652d20\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There is an obvious hierarchical relationship between the lenders of money market funds. For the main lender banks HQLA portfolio and money market funds, they generally have three asset options: lending funds to the Treasury (buying US debt), lending funds through the repo market and lending funds to the Federal Reserve, but the interest rates of lending funds in the latter two markets are not the same. Bank HQLA Portfolio In the Repo market, the interest rate at which funds are borrowed is the General Collateral Repo Rate (GC Repo). The interest rate at which money market funds lend money in the Repo market is the Tri-party Repo rate. The interest rates at which they lend funds to the Federal Reserve are IOR and ONRRP respectively, which are the two policy rates that the Federal Reserve controls the overnight interest rate market.</p><p>As the two most important lenders in the money market, the HQLA portfolio of banks and money market funds are huge. By the end of 2020, the HQLA portfolio of JP Morgan alone was around 600 billion US dollars, and the HQLA portfolio of the entire banking system was even larger. In addition, money market funds currently have more than $4 trillion under management at the end of Q1 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b90620a0b20d7307a0d9015ea2c79fb\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>IV. The soul torture of the US money market: how to observe the tightness of liquidity?</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, for the HQLA portfolio of banks, at least IOR income should be obtained when lending funds in the money market; For money market funds, when raising funds in the money market, they should at least get ON RRP income. Of course, for money market funds, sometimes due to the consideration of intraday liquidity, sometimes even though the short-term U.S. bond yield is lower than ON RRP, they will also hold some short-term U.S. bonds.</p><p>Then, if money market funds start heavily using the Fed's overnight reverse repo vehicle for ON RRP returns, they can conclude that they have no better asset options: neither the Treasury nor dealers need to lend money to them in the money market. In this case, we can think that the liquidity of the overnight money market is abundant, and the needs of major financing parties have been met.</p><p>As shown in Figure 4, money market funds basically did not use the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool from 2018 to March 2020 (before the global financial market turmoil), indicating that they lent a large amount of funds to dealers and the Ministry of Finance (to purchase short-term U.S. debt), and there were no remaining funds to repurchase and lend to the Fed. In contrast, after March 2021, money market funds began to lend a large amount of funds to the Federal Reserve, and traders and the Treasury Department had no demand for money market fund funds.</p><p>Back in 2018, the major financing parties in the U.S. money market had a higher demand for funds. For the Treasury, the issuance of U.S. debt began to accelerate. For dealers, the demand for its two main financing businesses has also risen at the same time: (1) the demand for market-making financing has increased greatly, and it can be seen that the net position of U.S. debt of primary dealers has increased from 2018 to 2019; (2) The demand for repo financing, as measured by SOFR transaction volume, is also rising.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59a82ef6b10008a8e017429c7e6d04d\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72c4fc914e4cb2cacae12b11ed535aae\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57d881951cceed4d8417a1caef6c66d4\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If we look at the lenders of money markets, the scale of money market funds is expanding in 2018-2019. But against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet, the banking system has also contracted, causing the size of the entire HQLA portfolio of banks to shrink. As the imbalance between supply and demand in the money market continues to grow severe, a spike in interest rates occurred in the repo market in September 2019. The Federal Reserve has balanced the supply and demand of money market funds by opening up repo instruments and buying short-term Treasury Bond.</p><p>It should be pointed out that the absolute amount of reserves does not reflect the tightness of liquidity in the money market. In the phase of reserve decline, it may be a period of loose liquidity in the money market; The stage of rising reserves may also be a period of liquidity tightening in the money market. We need to look at the use of the Fed's reverse repo tool to judge money market liquidity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1bcc3911dcec07087d56f674e3bba2\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79bd2eb7c7b4785fbbc31a13c5a8bfa7\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p>(1) Lack of understanding of the Fed's monetary policy framework</p><p>(2) Changes in monetary policy of the Federal Reserve exceed expectations</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9wHdw-70Pmtlzs49vSSMDg\">静观金融</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85c320adaeda5c6807698908bd45f3f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9wHdw-70Pmtlzs49vSSMDg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169468802","content_text":"摘要\n美国货币市场的融资流动性衡量的是企业或者金融机构在货币市场上获得短期批发融资的难易程度。一般而言，如果融资流动性出现问题，企业、机构为获取“现金”而趋同性地选择卖出某类金融资产时，该金融资产的市场流动性会大幅下降，资产价格也会迅速走低。因此，可以说融资流动性是市场流动性的基础。\n美国货币市场的主体。我们可以将美国货币市场理解成：资金融入方为财政当局（短期国债）、交易商（其融资需求主要来自于做市以及为对冲基金等客户提供融资），而资金融出方主要是银行及货币市场基金。\n美国货币市场：美联储的重要职能与“被动”地位。当美联储作为资金融入方时，它使用的政策工具是准备金利率（IOR）及隔夜逆回购工具（ON RRP）。这两个政策工具均由对手方主动发起，相当于对手方主动把多余的“钱”存放美联储。当美联储作为资金融出方时，实际上就是美联储在履行自己“最后贷款人”义务的时候。只要银行按要求提供抵押物，美联储会贴现窗口按照贴现窗口利率（DW）融出资金给银行。2021年7月美联储新设立了常备回购便利（SRF），即在满足抵押品要求的前提下，美联储会在回购市场按照最低SRF利率融出资金。\n融资流动性的供给与需求:融入方为财政当局（短期国债）、交易商（其融资需求主要来自于做市以及为对冲基金等客户提供融资），而融出方主要是银行（一般的HQLA资产部分+FHLBs）及货币市场基金。对于主要资金融出方银行HQLA组合及货币市场基金而言，它们一般有三种资产选择：融出资金给财政部（购买美债）、通过回购市场融出资金、融出资金给美联储，但是两者在后两个市场融出资金的利率并不相同。银行HQLA组合在回购市场中，融出资金的利率是一般抵押品回购利率（GC Repo）。货币市场基金在回购市场融出资金的利率是三方回购利率（Tri-party Repo）。而它们向美联储融出资金的利率则分别为IOR及ONRRP，为美联储控制隔夜利率市场的两个政策利率。\n美国货币市场灵魂拷问：如何观察流动性松紧程度？如果货币市场基金使用了美联储隔夜逆回购工具，说明其没有更好的资产选择了，主要的融资方的需求都得到了满足。需要指出的是准备金的绝对数量并不反应货币市场流动性的松紧，在准备金下降阶段，可以是货币市场流动性宽松的时期；而准备金上升阶段也有可能是货币市场流动性收紧的时期。我们需要观察美联储逆回购工具的使用量来判断货币市场流动性。\n正文\n国内投资者时常困惑于美元流动性传导机制，我们认为只有通盘考虑中央银行、银行体系、非银体系及财政当局的内在联系，才能拼凑出较为完整的美元流动性图景。有鉴于此，我们将用三篇报告梳理美元流动性研究框架。第三篇我们介绍如何判断与评估美国货币市场流动的环境。\n一、我们对于美国货币市场流动性的定义\n“流动性”一词在金融市场的讨论中被广泛使用。为了不引起歧义，我们首先需要定义在本篇报告中所提及的流动性：它是指美国货币市场的融资流动性，用于衡量企业或者金融机构在货币市场上获得短期融资的难易程度。\n除融资流动性外，还有“市场流动性”，用于衡量企业、金融机构等出售金融资产换取“现金”的难易程度。一般而言，如果融资流动性出现问题，企业、机构为获取“现金”而趋同性地选择卖出某类金融资产时，该金融资产的市场流动性会大幅下降，资产价格也会迅速走低。因此，可以说融资流动性是市场流动性的基础。\n一般情况下，融资流动性越好市场流动性越好。负责撮合交易的金融中介越是易于从货币市场融资，它的资产负债表就越有弹性，也就更加容易购买他人抛售的资产，或出售他人想要的资产，这种现象在美债等依靠交易中介进行交易的市场表现更为明显。\n二、美国货币市场：美联储的重要职能与“被动”地位\n要搞清楚融资流动性的松或紧，首先需要理解的是美国货币市场的参与对象以及层级结构：即谁是融入方？谁是融出方？通过什么市场来借钱？为了简化问题，我们把讨论的重心放在财政当局、货币当局（美联储）及主要金融机构上。在这样的框架下，货币市场可以理解成：资金融入方为财政当局（短期国债）、交易商（其融资需求主要来自于做市以及为对冲基金等客户提供融资），而资金融出方主要是银行（因不影响整体的框架，本篇不单独列出联邦住房贷款银行）及货币市场基金。\n由于巴塞尔III的流动性覆盖比率（LCR）的规定，银行需要根据其预期的未来30天现金净流出量来持有同等数量的高质量流动性资产（HQLA）。HQLA主要包括准备金、国债以及用国债为抵押品的短期回购。因为一些银行在其HQLA中持有大量的短期美债及隔夜回购，银行在货币市场中扮演着重要的角色。\n在整个货币市场中，美联储地位极其特殊。它通过不同的政策工具，同时承担了资金融入方及资金融出方的角色。当美联储作为资金融入方时，它使用的政策工具是准备金利率（IOR）及隔夜逆回购工具（ON RRP）。这两个政策工具均由对手方主动发起，相当于对手方主动把多余的“钱”存放美联储。这就形成了银行（FHLBs除外）及回购市场资金融出方（以货币市场基金为主）融出资金利率的底。因为它们最优质的对手方（美联储）愿意通过IOR及ON RRP向它们融入资金，迫使其他资金需求方出更高的利率才能融到资金。\n当美联储作为资金融出方时，实际上就是美联储在履行自己“最后贷款人”义务的时候。只要银行按要求提供抵押物，美联储会贴现窗口按照贴现窗口利率（DW）融出资金给银行。2021年7月，美联储新设立了常备回购便利（SRF），即在满足抵押品要求的前提下，美联储会在回购市场按照最低SRF利率融出资金。\n三、融资流动性的供给与需求\n货币市场资金融入方之一的财政当局主要是通过发行短期国债的方式在货币市场融资，易于观察跟踪。相较之下，交易商在货币市场的融资需求主要有两个目的：（1）做市；（2）为其客户提供融资服务。这两项的需求其实并不稳定，比如做市需求，当美债发行量较大或者投资者对美债兴趣有限时，都会造成交易商因库存增加导致的额外融资需求。在上面这个情况下，财政部的发行计划、美债相对其他主权国家的收益率差、美元的汇率等都会对交易商的融资需求产生影响。进而，这一部分的融资需求并不能准确跟踪。\n\n货币市场资金融出方存在比较明显的层级关系。对于主要资金融出方银行HQLA组合及货币市场基金而言，它们一般有三种资产选择：融出资金给财政部（购买美债）、通过回购市场融出资金、融出资金给美联储，但是两者在后两个市场融出资金的利率并不相同。银行HQLA组合在回购市场中，融出资金的利率是一般抵押品回购利率（GC Repo）。货币市场基金在回购市场融出资金的利率是三方回购利率（Tri-party Repo）。而它们向美联储融出资金的利率则分别为IOR及ONRRP，为美联储控制隔夜利率市场的两个政策利率。\n作为货币市场中最重要的两个资金融出方，银行的HQLA组合及货币市场基金的体量巨大。截止2020年末，单JP Morgan的HQLA组合规模就在6000亿美元左右，整个银行体系的HQLA组合规模更加庞大。此外，截止2021年Q1末货币市场基金目前管理的规模在4万亿美元以上。\n四、美国货币市场灵魂拷问：如何观察流动性松紧程度？\n前文提到，对于银行HQLA组合来说，在货币市场融出资金时，至少应该获取IOR收益；而对于货币市场基金来说，在货币市场融出资金时，至少应该获取ON RRP收益。当然对于货币市场基金来说，有时因考虑日内流动性，有时尽管短期美债收益率低于ON RRP，也会持有一些短期美债。\n那么，如果货币市场基金开始大量使用美联储隔夜逆回购工具获取ON RRP收益时，可以断定其没有更好的资产选择了：不论是财政部还是交易商们已不需要在货币市场向它们融入资金。在这种情况下，我们可以认为，整个隔夜货币市场的流动性是充裕的，主要的融资方的需求都已经得到了满足。\n如图4所示，货币市场基金在2018年至2020年3月（全球金融市场动荡前）基本都没有使用美联储的隔夜逆回购工具，说明其将资金大量融出给了交易商及财政部（购买短期美债），并没有剩余资金可以回购出借给美联储。与此对比强烈的是2021年3月之后，货币市场基金开始大量将资金大量出借给美联储，交易商及财政部对于货币市场基金的资金并没有需求。\n回到2018年，美国货币市场的主要融资方，对于资金的需求走高。对于财政部而言，美债发行开始加速。而对于交易商而言，它的两项主要融资业务需求也同时走高：（1）做市融资需求大增，可以看到一级交易商的美债净头寸在2018年-2019年不断增加；（2）以SOFR交易量衡量的回购融资需求也不断走高。\n\n如果看货币市场的资金融出方，2018-2019年货币市场基金规模在扩大。但在美联储缩表的背景下，银行体系也发生了收缩，造成银行整个HQLA组合的规模也在缩小。随着货币市场供需失衡的不断严重，2019年9月回购市场发生了利率飙升的情况。美联储通过开放回购工具及购买短期国债的方式平衡了货币市场资金的供需。\n需要指出的是准备金的绝对数量并不反映货币市场流动性的松紧。在准备金下降阶段，可能是货币市场流动性宽松的时期；而准备金上升阶段也有可能是货币市场流动性收紧的时期。我们需要观察美联储逆回购工具的使用量来判断货币市场流动性。\n\n风险提示\n（一）对美联储货币政策框架理解不到位\n（二）美联储货币政策变化超预期","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881052710,"gmtCreate":1631282691130,"gmtModify":1676530518890,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881052710","repostId":"2166320467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889878119,"gmtCreate":1631143487231,"gmtModify":1676530476868,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yy","listText":"Yy","text":"Yy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889878119","repostId":"2165994363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165994363","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631085017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165994363?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-08 15:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Multiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165994363","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报","content":"<p>Americans had envisioned a summer when the economy would return to normal, with office workers returning to the office, kids returning to school and corner coffee shops opening again. But everything backfired, and with the resurgence of the pandemic, the recovery stepped on the brakes in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the shocking data on non-farm payrolls brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 235,000 in August, a significant miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years in August, with Americans worried by the spreading Delta variant and persistently rising inflation.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. ET on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 650,345 deaths were reported across the United States.</p><p><b>Over the past week, the U.S. has averaged more than 161,000 new cases a day, a whopping 1,560 new deaths and an average of more than 102,000 daily hospitalizations, only slightly below last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>Amid the resurgence of the pandemic, U.S. offices and schools have been delayed, and travel and performance plans have been canceled.</p><p><b>Beginning in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, and some have even pushed back their return dates to 2022.</b></p><p>Visitor arrivals to Hawaii have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels in mid-July, down only about 10% from the same time in 2019, official figures show. But starting in August, the pace has slowed somewhat, and in the last seven days of August, average daily visitor arrivals were down 34% from 2019.</p><p>Theater footfall at the end of August more than halved compared to the pandemic peak in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>Meanwhile, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online instruction.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying the reopening of schools was supposed to be a big moment for the economy. About a quarter of families have school-age children, and reliable child care can get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and the lack of a vaccine for children under the age of 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>\"Our sense of uncertainty and anxiety from last year is back, and that uncertainty is enough to dampen labor supply,\" Meier said.</b></p><p><h2>Institutions are cutting U.S. growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant virus won't push the U.S. back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and discouraging companies from investing amid new uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released on Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast this year to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate this year is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%.</p><p>In explaining why they cut their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists cited several major factors,<b>It is expected that due to the raging virus variant Delta, weakening government financial support, and the shift in demand from goods to services, American consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"The obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future seem to be much more: the Delta variant virus is already pressuring growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is decreasing, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down, which will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also sharply lowered the U.S. GDP forecast in the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast in the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising the GDP forecast for the third quarter, Morgan Stanley's GDP growth rate for the United States this year is expected to be 5.6%, which is lower than the expected growth rate for the whole year after Goldman Sachs lowered this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the stimulus expenditure of government has decreased to the economy, and the bottleneck of supply chain continues to drag down the economy, resulting in a decrease in consumer expenditure on large-scale durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>Two consecutive losses in U.S. stocks, a bigger test is behind</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow dropped more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since Aug. 19 and its biggest closing drop since Aug. 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4520.03 points, a new low since Aug. 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow and S&P closed lower after the non-farm payrolls report, which was far worse than expected, was released last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline of most sectors of U.S. stocks. The prices of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds both fell during the session, the yield of Treasury Bond rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield reached a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reevaluating the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate earnings.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures in the United States, the economic recovery in the United States will face further tests.</b></p><p>More than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional unemployment benefits during the pandemic this week.<b>In addition to halting pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt hikes have created additional tests for the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that although it seems likely that the US Congress will pass an infrastructure bill this autumn, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress could vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which would offset the boost from spending — another short-term risk to markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the increase in the debt ceiling this autumn. The U.S. Congress needs to pass a debt ceiling increase later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Multiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMultiple Indicators in the United States Alarm!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 15:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Americans had envisioned a summer when the economy would return to normal, with office workers returning to the office, kids returning to school and corner coffee shops opening again. But everything backfired, and with the resurgence of the pandemic, the recovery stepped on the brakes in August.</p><p><b>Last Friday, the shocking data on non-farm payrolls brought the most direct alarm signal.</b>U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 235,000 in August, a significant miss the market expectation of 733,000, down from about 1 million in June and July, the smallest increase since January 2021.</p><p>The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in 10 years in August, with Americans worried by the spreading Delta variant and persistently rising inflation.</p><p>According to data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 6 p.m. ET on September 7, 2021, a total of 40,238,083 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 650,345 deaths were reported across the United States.</p><p><b>Over the past week, the U.S. has averaged more than 161,000 new cases a day, a whopping 1,560 new deaths and an average of more than 102,000 daily hospitalizations, only slightly below last winter's peak.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c5b880f937edae73659acd8fa2e181\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image credit: Worldometers)</p><p><h2>'Feelings of uncertainty and anxiety are back'</h2>Amid the resurgence of the pandemic, U.S. offices and schools have been delayed, and travel and performance plans have been canceled.</p><p><b>Beginning in August, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Companies, large and small, have abandoned plans to reopen offices, and some have even pushed back their return dates to 2022.</b></p><p>Visitor arrivals to Hawaii have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels in mid-July, down only about 10% from the same time in 2019, official figures show. But starting in August, the pace has slowed somewhat, and in the last seven days of August, average daily visitor arrivals were down 34% from 2019.</p><p>Theater footfall at the end of August more than halved compared to the pandemic peak in mid-July, according to market research firm TOP. Paramount Pictures has delayed the release of Top Gun: Maverick and Mission: Impossible 7.</p><p>Meanwhile, many schools in the United States have closed or resumed online instruction.</p><p>The Wall Street Journal quoted Columbia Business School economist Stephan Meier as saying the reopening of schools was supposed to be a big moment for the economy. About a quarter of families have school-age children, and reliable child care can get many Americans, especially women, back to work. But for now, the Delta variant and the lack of a vaccine for children under the age of 12 may keep some parents from working away from home.</p><p><b>\"Our sense of uncertainty and anxiety from last year is back, and that uncertainty is enough to dampen labor supply,\" Meier said.</b></p><p><h2>Institutions are cutting U.S. growth forecasts</h2>Economists believe the Delta variant virus won't push the U.S. back into recession, but losing growth momentum could prolong the recovery of millions of jobs lost during the pandemic, leaving many job markets on the sidelines and discouraging companies from investing amid new uncertainty.</p><p>In the report released on Monday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This is the third time in less than three months that Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP forecast this year to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate this year is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%.</p><p>In explaining why they cut their forecasts this week, Goldman Sachs economists cited several major factors,<b>It is expected that due to the raging virus variant Delta, weakening government financial support, and the shift in demand from goods to services, American consumers may reduce spending, and the consumption situation is more severe than previously expected:</b></p><p>\"The obstacles to strong consumption growth in the future seem to be much more: the Delta variant virus is already pressuring growth in the third quarter, fiscal stimulus is decreasing, and the recovery of the service industry is slowing down, which will all be negative factors in the medium term.\" Earlier this month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It also sharply lowered the U.S. GDP forecast in the third quarter, from 6.5% to only 2.9%, and the GDP forecast in the fourth quarter remained at 6.7%. After revising the GDP forecast for the third quarter, Morgan Stanley's GDP growth rate for the United States this year is expected to be 5.6%, which is lower than the expected growth rate for the whole year after Goldman Sachs lowered this week.</p><p>Morgan Stanley said at the time,<b>The reduction is mainly due to the fact that the driving force of economic growth has been released ahead of schedule, the stimulus expenditure of government has decreased to the economy, and the bottleneck of supply chain continues to drag down the economy, resulting in a decrease in consumer expenditure on large-scale durable goods such as automobiles.</b></p><p><h2>Two consecutive losses in U.S. stocks, a bigger test is behind</h2>On Tuesday, the Dow dropped more than 200 points, hitting a new closing low since Aug. 19 and its biggest closing drop since Aug. 18. The S&P closed down 0.34% at 4520.03 points, a new low since Aug. 27.</p><p>This is the second consecutive day that the Dow and S&P closed lower after the non-farm payrolls report, which was far worse than expected, was released last Friday. Even the three-day long weekend, including Monday, failed to ease the decline of most sectors of U.S. stocks. The prices of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds both fell during the session, the yield of Treasury Bond rose, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield reached a new high since mid-July.</p><p>The analysis pointed out that under the raging Delta variant virus, the market is reevaluating the economic growth prospects of the United States and its impact on corporate earnings.</p><p><b>With the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus measures in the United States, the economic recovery in the United States will face further tests.</b></p><p>More than 7.5 million Americans will lose $300 a week in additional unemployment benefits during the pandemic this week.<b>In addition to halting pandemic subsidies, risk factors such as tax increases and debt hikes have created additional tests for the U.S. economy.</b></p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that although it seems likely that the US Congress will pass an infrastructure bill this autumn, compared with the multiple rounds of stimulus plans launched since March 2020, the economic impact of the recent stimulus plan is relatively limited.</p><p>The U.S. Congress could vote to raise taxes on businesses and high-income individuals, which would offset the boost from spending — another short-term risk to markets.</p><p>At the same time, U.S. stocks may also be affected by the increase in the debt ceiling this autumn. The U.S. Congress needs to pass a debt ceiling increase later this month to raise government funds, as well as a temporary spending bill to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165994363","content_text":"美国人曾憧憬，这个夏天经济能回归常态，上班族回到办公室，孩子们重返校园，街角的咖啡店再次开业。但一切事与愿违，随着疫情复燃，复苏在8月踩下了急刹车。\n上周五，让人大跌眼镜的非农就业数据带来了最直接的报警信号。美国8月非农就业人口仅增加23.5万人，大幅不及市场预期的73.3万人，低于6月和7月的约100万个，创2021年1月以来最小增幅。\n8月，密歇根大学消费者信心指数也跌至10年来的最低水平，不断蔓延的Delta变种病毒和持续上升的通胀令美国人感到担忧。\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的数据，截至美国东部时间2021年9月7日下午6点，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊40238083例，死亡650345例。\n过去一周，美国平均每天新增病例超过 161000 例，新增死亡病例高达 1560 例，平均每天住院人数超过 102000 人，仅比去年冬天的峰值略低。\n\n(图片来源：Worldometers)\n“不确定性和焦虑感又回来了”\n疫情复燃之下，美国办公室和学校推迟开放，旅行和演出计划纷纷取消。\n从8月份开始，包括苹果、亚马逊在内的大小的公司都放弃了重新开放办公室的计划，一些公司甚至将返回日期推迟到2022年。\n官方数据显示，7月中旬，前往夏威夷的游客人数已经恢复至接近疫情前的水平，仅比2019年同期下降了约10%。但从8月开始，速度有所放缓，在8月的最后7天，日均游客抵达数量比2019年下降了34%。\n市场研究公司TOP的数据显示，与7月中旬的疫情高峰相比，8月底的影院客流量下降了一半以上。派拉蒙影业公司推迟了《壮志凌云:特立独行》和《碟中谍7》的上映。\n与此同时，美国许多学校已经关闭或恢复线上授课。\n华尔街日报援引哥伦比亚商学院经济学家Stephan Meier表示，学校重新开学本应是经济的一个重要时刻。大约四分之一的家庭有学龄儿童，可靠的儿童看护可以让许多美国人，尤其是女性重返工作岗位。但目前，Delta变种和缺乏针对12岁以下儿童的疫苗可能会让一些父母不愿离家工作。\nMeier称：“我们去年的不确定性和焦虑感又回来了，这种不确定性足以抑制劳动力供应。”\n机构纷纷下调美国经济增长预期\n经济学家认为，Delta变种病毒不会将美国推回衰退，但失去增长动力可能延长疫情期间失去的数百万就业岗位的复苏，令许多就业市场处于观望状态，并阻碍企业在新的不确定性下投资。\n本周一发布的报告中，高盛将今年的美国GDP预期增速降至5.7%，今年失业率预期从4.1%升至4.2%，这是不到三个月里，高盛第三次下调今年美国GDP预期。\n在本周解释为何下调预期时，高盛经济学家提到几大影响因素，预计由于变种病毒Delta肆虐、政府的财政支持在减弱，加之需求从商品转换到服务，美国消费者可能减少支出，消费形势比之前预期的更严峻：\n\n “未来消费强劲增长的阻碍看来多得多：Delta变异病毒已经在施压三季度增长，财政刺激在减少，服务业复苏放缓，这些都将是中期内的负面因素。”\n\n本月初，摩根士丹利也大幅下调了三季度美国GDP预期，从6.5%猛砍至仅2.9%，四季度GDP预期维持在6.7%。下修三季度GDP预期后，摩根士丹利的美国今年全年GDP增速预期为5.6%，比高盛本周调降后的全年预期增速还低。\n摩根士丹利当时称，调降预期主要由于经济增长的动力已提前释放，政府刺激性支出对经济的推动减少，加之供应链瓶颈持续拖累经济，汽车等大件耐用品的消费者支出由此减少。\n美股两连跌，更大的考验在后面\n周二，道指跌超200点，创8月19日以来收盘新低以及8月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。标普收跌0.34%，报4520.03点，创8月27日以来新低。\n这是上周五远逊预期的非农就业报告公布后，道指、标普连续两日收跌。即使是包括周一在内的三日长周末也没能缓和美股多数板块的跌势，美股和美债价格盘中齐跌，国债收益率上行，基准10年期美债收益率刷新7月中旬以来高位。\n分析指出，Delta变种病毒肆虐之下，市场正在重新评估美国经济增长前景，以及其对企业盈利的影响。\n随着美国财政刺激措施逐渐退场，美国经济复苏将面临进一步的考验。\n本周，超过750万的美国人将失去疫情时期每周300美元的额外失业救济。除了停止疫情补贴外，增税、债务上调等风险因素也给美国经济带来了额外的考验。\n华尔街见闻此前提及，尽管美国国会似乎有可能在今年秋季通过一项基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期的刺激计划经济影响相对有限。\n美国国会可能会投票决定提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，这将抵消支出带来的提振——这是市场面临的另一个短期风险。\n与此同时，美股今秋还可能受到债务上限上调的影响。美国国会需要在本月晚些时候通过提高债务上限以筹集政府资金，以及一项临时开支法案，以避免华盛顿在10月份关闭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"IAU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815296966,"gmtCreate":1630679166755,"gmtModify":1676530374930,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815296966","repostId":"1124577665","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124577665","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630636929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124577665?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 10:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Multiple risks are coming, and US stocks will usher in great turmoil in September?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124577665","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"伴随9月到来，美股市场正面对着越来越多的潜在风险。","content":"<p><i>Since the end of World War II, there is only a 45% chance that the S&P 500 will rise in September. In addition to the historical background, there are a series of major events, all of which have considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect the policy meeting of the Federal Reserve on September 22nd and their plan to reduce bond purchases within this year.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beafe1f53440c121923a321284d7b5d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After seven consecutive months of gains, the U.S. stock market is facing increasing potential risks with the arrival of September, which unfortunately happens to be \"infamous\" in stock market history-the worst month in history.</p><p>According to CFRA data, since the end of World War II, the S&P 500 has only a 45% probability of rising in September. In all these September months, the index fell by an average of 0.56%, ranking last among all months-in fact, the average return of the index is positive in all months except September and February.</p><p>At present, the overall view of Wall Street strategists is that although it is not certain that a retreat or consolidation is imminent, the risks are undoubtedly accumulating. Specifically, changes in Fed policy, the accelerated spread of Delta variant, and political risks may negatively impact the US stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist, said that although it is too mechanical to assume that the performance of September 2021 will follow the historical trend now, the risks are really difficult to ignore. \"Are there a lot of risks, and at some point in the future, one of them may cause the market to fall back by 3% or 4%? The answer is of course yes. Whether that time node may be September, the answer is of course yes.\"</p><p>A detailed analysis of historical data shows that if it was September, the first year of the presidency, the performance of U.S. stocks would be even worse than average. On average, the S&P 500 fell 0.73% in September during these years. CFRA also found that historical records show that if the S&P 500 reached new highs in both July and August-as it did this year-the index has only a 43% probability of rising in the following September, with an average performance of 0.74% down.</p><p>In mid-August, the S&P 500 rose nearly 3%, and by the end of August, it was up 20.4% year-to-date.</p><p><b>Risks are brewing</b></p><p>Specific to September this year, in addition to the historical background, there are a series of major events, all of which have considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect the policy meeting of the Federal Reserve on September 22nd, and affect their plan formulation to reduce bond purchase operations within this year.</p><p>According to data from Dow Jones, the consensus expectation among economists is that 750,000 new jobs will be added in August. Market observers explained that if the final results greatly exceed this expectation, the reduction of the Fed's original $120 billion monthly bond purchase plan may be intensified and accelerated, and they will probably announce the decision to reduce the reduction within the year at the September meeting. On the contrary, if the employment data only meets expectations, or even falls short of expectations, the Fed's tapering start point may be delayed by several months.</p><p>Sanders' judgment is that the relatively weak employment data is not necessarily bad news for the US stock market, because this data means that the Fed may delay the start of the tapering, and carry out the tapering operation in a more cautious rather than drastic way. Although Federal Reserve President Powell emphasized last week that the tapering of bond purchases is completely unrelated to rate hike, most market observers still tend to regard the former as the precursor of the latter.</p><p>Sanders explained that the Fed's future decisions will be determined by the various economic data that are constantly coming out. This means that the development of the epidemic, and the corresponding impact on the economy, will continue to be an important factor affecting their decision-making. \"The final conclusion is really regrettable. In the final analysis, the performance of the market still depends on the face of the epidemic.\"</p><p><b>Can normalcy return</b></p><p>On the other hand, September is seen by many observers as a delicate time point that affects American mood, that is, as students return to school, there is a sense that life is somewhat returning to normal. At the same time, with parents of school-aged children returning to the workforce and the official expiration of additional unemployment benefits, September is also an important node when the labor shortage is expected to improve.</p><p>However, due to the spread of Delta variant virus, the US economy is facing the threat of brand-new variables. For example, many enterprises have delayed the reopening time. At the same time, with the rise of the epidemic, many retail and catering enterprises have also suffered from the decline of consumer passenger flow again.</p><p>Julian Emanuel, head of BITG's equity and derivatives strategy department, bluntly said: \"Consumer confidence has been greatly shaken. This is not closely related to the specific situation of the epidemic. The key is that we all expected that by September, life would basically return to normal.\"</p><p>Sanders of Charles Schwab said that for the US stock market, under normal circumstances, the number one decider of the market in September should be the Federal Reserve, but at the same time, the epidemic also has the possibility of forcibly \"stealing the show\" and becoming the protagonist.</p><p>\"I don't think this back-to-school season is as simple as purely psychological factors.\" Sanders said. \"People will be watching closely to see if keeping schools open in places with relatively low vaccination rates will further worsen the situation. Obviously, this is a pandemic risk that is closely tied to time.\"</p><p>Emanuel said the market will also continue to keep a close eye on the Fed to determine exactly how they are continuing their bond purchase tapering plan.</p><p>\"All this is one of the most concerned issues at the September meeting. The reason why the market wants the Fed to announce the reduction of its operating schedule in advance is because if they don't announce it, it probably means that they have learned about the damage of the pandemic to the economy and labor market (more than expected).\"</p><p>Another economic data that could shock markets in September is inflation data. The Consumer Price Index report will be released on September 14. Emanuel explained that if inflation remains high, it could push up Treasury Bond yields, which is undoubtedly bad news for the stock market.</p><p>Emanuel said that the market will also pay attention to the timing when the United States hits the debt ceiling and whether the infrastructure bill with a scale of several trillion dollars can be passed. Congress is expected to review the latter in September.</p><p>Finally, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan poses additional risks. Emanuel said: \"The succession of events is likely to have longer-term political consequences, and if there are signs of greater unrest on the ground, the impact will intensify.\"</p><p><b>The worst month</b></p><p>Emanuel's own expectation is that there will be a very considerable sell-off in the US stock market in September. He pointed out that historical records show that September and October are often full of volatility.</p><p>\"Of course, this is not to say that the stock market is bound to fall, but from our point of view, the sentiment that the market will not fall as long as the Fed does not have rate hike is too widespread, and market participants are too smug.\"</p><p>He believes that investors should take serious measures to protect themselves against possible declines, and suggests that everyone consider using options instruments. \"We're not saying that you should be fearful. What we're saying is that you have to be cautious. Your portfolio has made considerable gains, and it's best to keep it.\"</p><p>Sanders also said that in fact, large-scale consolidation is a common occurrence in the market, but some investors feel that today's market is more elastic than before because the mainstream indexes are constantly setting records. She said that she was most worried about all kinds of speculative bubbles. \"In areas such as MEME stocks, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) and virtual currencies, rotational consolidation and bear markets have actually emerged.\"</p><p>Sanders said that of the major sectors in the S&P 500, she currently gives only one sector, health, an outperform rating. At present, she seeks investment opportunities mainly based on factors, not sectors. For example, she is now studying the quality of different stocks, looking for good news such as free cash flow or higher earnings expectations.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Multiple risks are coming, and US stocks will usher in great turmoil in September?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMultiple risks are coming, and US stocks will usher in great turmoil in September?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Since the end of World War II, there is only a 45% chance that the S&P 500 will rise in September. In addition to the historical background, there are a series of major events, all of which have considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect the policy meeting of the Federal Reserve on September 22nd and their plan to reduce bond purchases within this year.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beafe1f53440c121923a321284d7b5d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After seven consecutive months of gains, the U.S. stock market is facing increasing potential risks with the arrival of September, which unfortunately happens to be \"infamous\" in stock market history-the worst month in history.</p><p>According to CFRA data, since the end of World War II, the S&P 500 has only a 45% probability of rising in September. In all these September months, the index fell by an average of 0.56%, ranking last among all months-in fact, the average return of the index is positive in all months except September and February.</p><p>At present, the overall view of Wall Street strategists is that although it is not certain that a retreat or consolidation is imminent, the risks are undoubtedly accumulating. Specifically, changes in Fed policy, the accelerated spread of Delta variant, and political risks may negatively impact the US stock market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist, said that although it is too mechanical to assume that the performance of September 2021 will follow the historical trend now, the risks are really difficult to ignore. \"Are there a lot of risks, and at some point in the future, one of them may cause the market to fall back by 3% or 4%? The answer is of course yes. Whether that time node may be September, the answer is of course yes.\"</p><p>A detailed analysis of historical data shows that if it was September, the first year of the presidency, the performance of U.S. stocks would be even worse than average. On average, the S&P 500 fell 0.73% in September during these years. CFRA also found that historical records show that if the S&P 500 reached new highs in both July and August-as it did this year-the index has only a 43% probability of rising in the following September, with an average performance of 0.74% down.</p><p>In mid-August, the S&P 500 rose nearly 3%, and by the end of August, it was up 20.4% year-to-date.</p><p><b>Risks are brewing</b></p><p>Specific to September this year, in addition to the historical background, there are a series of major events, all of which have considerable risks hidden behind them, such as the August employment report to be released this Friday. The specific performance of the latter is likely to directly affect the policy meeting of the Federal Reserve on September 22nd, and affect their plan formulation to reduce bond purchase operations within this year.</p><p>According to data from Dow Jones, the consensus expectation among economists is that 750,000 new jobs will be added in August. Market observers explained that if the final results greatly exceed this expectation, the reduction of the Fed's original $120 billion monthly bond purchase plan may be intensified and accelerated, and they will probably announce the decision to reduce the reduction within the year at the September meeting. On the contrary, if the employment data only meets expectations, or even falls short of expectations, the Fed's tapering start point may be delayed by several months.</p><p>Sanders' judgment is that the relatively weak employment data is not necessarily bad news for the US stock market, because this data means that the Fed may delay the start of the tapering, and carry out the tapering operation in a more cautious rather than drastic way. Although Federal Reserve President Powell emphasized last week that the tapering of bond purchases is completely unrelated to rate hike, most market observers still tend to regard the former as the precursor of the latter.</p><p>Sanders explained that the Fed's future decisions will be determined by the various economic data that are constantly coming out. This means that the development of the epidemic, and the corresponding impact on the economy, will continue to be an important factor affecting their decision-making. \"The final conclusion is really regrettable. In the final analysis, the performance of the market still depends on the face of the epidemic.\"</p><p><b>Can normalcy return</b></p><p>On the other hand, September is seen by many observers as a delicate time point that affects American mood, that is, as students return to school, there is a sense that life is somewhat returning to normal. At the same time, with parents of school-aged children returning to the workforce and the official expiration of additional unemployment benefits, September is also an important node when the labor shortage is expected to improve.</p><p>However, due to the spread of Delta variant virus, the US economy is facing the threat of brand-new variables. For example, many enterprises have delayed the reopening time. At the same time, with the rise of the epidemic, many retail and catering enterprises have also suffered from the decline of consumer passenger flow again.</p><p>Julian Emanuel, head of BITG's equity and derivatives strategy department, bluntly said: \"Consumer confidence has been greatly shaken. This is not closely related to the specific situation of the epidemic. The key is that we all expected that by September, life would basically return to normal.\"</p><p>Sanders of Charles Schwab said that for the US stock market, under normal circumstances, the number one decider of the market in September should be the Federal Reserve, but at the same time, the epidemic also has the possibility of forcibly \"stealing the show\" and becoming the protagonist.</p><p>\"I don't think this back-to-school season is as simple as purely psychological factors.\" Sanders said. \"People will be watching closely to see if keeping schools open in places with relatively low vaccination rates will further worsen the situation. Obviously, this is a pandemic risk that is closely tied to time.\"</p><p>Emanuel said the market will also continue to keep a close eye on the Fed to determine exactly how they are continuing their bond purchase tapering plan.</p><p>\"All this is one of the most concerned issues at the September meeting. The reason why the market wants the Fed to announce the reduction of its operating schedule in advance is because if they don't announce it, it probably means that they have learned about the damage of the pandemic to the economy and labor market (more than expected).\"</p><p>Another economic data that could shock markets in September is inflation data. The Consumer Price Index report will be released on September 14. Emanuel explained that if inflation remains high, it could push up Treasury Bond yields, which is undoubtedly bad news for the stock market.</p><p>Emanuel said that the market will also pay attention to the timing when the United States hits the debt ceiling and whether the infrastructure bill with a scale of several trillion dollars can be passed. Congress is expected to review the latter in September.</p><p>Finally, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan poses additional risks. Emanuel said: \"The succession of events is likely to have longer-term political consequences, and if there are signs of greater unrest on the ground, the impact will intensify.\"</p><p><b>The worst month</b></p><p>Emanuel's own expectation is that there will be a very considerable sell-off in the US stock market in September. He pointed out that historical records show that September and October are often full of volatility.</p><p>\"Of course, this is not to say that the stock market is bound to fall, but from our point of view, the sentiment that the market will not fall as long as the Fed does not have rate hike is too widespread, and market participants are too smug.\"</p><p>He believes that investors should take serious measures to protect themselves against possible declines, and suggests that everyone consider using options instruments. \"We're not saying that you should be fearful. What we're saying is that you have to be cautious. Your portfolio has made considerable gains, and it's best to keep it.\"</p><p>Sanders also said that in fact, large-scale consolidation is a common occurrence in the market, but some investors feel that today's market is more elastic than before because the mainstream indexes are constantly setting records. She said that she was most worried about all kinds of speculative bubbles. \"In areas such as MEME stocks, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) and virtual currencies, rotational consolidation and bear markets have actually emerged.\"</p><p>Sanders said that of the major sectors in the S&P 500, she currently gives only one sector, health, an outperform rating. At present, she seeks investment opportunities mainly based on factors, not sectors. For example, she is now studying the quality of different stocks, looking for good news such as free cash flow or higher earnings expectations.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lN2TWV92hFLiXRdDdT09dw\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598c94c6b6db0e39a9e952fd336db660","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lN2TWV92hFLiXRdDdT09dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124577665","content_text":"自第二次世界大战结束以来，标普500指数在9月间上涨的概率只有45%。除了历史背景之外，还有一系列重大事件，背后都隐藏着可观的风险，比如本周五将发布的8月就业报告，后者的具体表现很可能将直接影响到联储9月22日的政策会议，影响到他们在今年年内开始缩减购债操作的计划制定工作。\n\n\n在连续七个月上涨之后，伴随9月到来，美股市场正面对着越来越多的潜在风险，而不巧的是，这个月份在股市历史上恰好是“臭名昭著”——史上表现最差月份。\nCFRA的数据显示，自第二次世界大战结束以来，标普500指数在9月间上涨的概率只有45%，在所有这些9月当中,指数平均下跌0.56%，在所有月份当中排名倒数第一——事实上，除了9月和2月，其他月份当中，指数的平均回报率都是正数。\n目前，华尔街策略师们的整体看法是，虽然还不能确定一场回挫或者盘整已经迫在眉睫，但是风险毋庸置疑地正在不断累积。具体来说，诸如联储政策变化，德尔塔变种病毒的加速传播，以及政治风险等，都可能会使美股市场受到负面冲击。\n嘉信理财首席投资策略师桑德斯（Liz Ann Sonders）表示，虽然现在就假定2021年9月的表现会追随历史趋势未免过于机械，但是风险确实难以忽视。“是否存在着大量的风险，到了未来某一时刻，其中之一就可能造成市场3%或者4%的回挫？答案当然是肯定的。那个时间节点是否可能是9月，答案当然还是肯定的。”\n对历史数据进行细化分析就会发现，如果是总统任期第一年的9月，美股的表现甚至还要比平均水准更加糟糕。平均而言，在这些年头的9月当中，标普500指数的跌幅达到了0.73%。CFRA还发现，历史记录显示，如果标普500指数在7月和8月当中都创下了新高——就像今年一样——则指数在接下来的9月当中只有43%概率上涨，平均表现是下跌0.74%。\n今年8月当中，标普500指数上涨了近3%，截至8月底，年度迄今为止涨幅为20.4%。\n风险在酝\n具体到今年的9月，除了历史背景之外，还有一系列重大事件，背后都隐藏着可观的风险，比如本周五将发布的8月就业报告，后者的具体表现很可能将直接影响到联储9月22日的政策会议，影响到他们在今年年内开始缩减购债操作的计划制定工作。\n道琼斯的数据显示，经济学家们目前的普遍预期是，8月间新增就业人数将达到75万。市场观察家们解释说，如果最终发布的结果大幅度超出这个预期，联储原本每月1200亿美元的购债计划的缩减工作就可能会加大力度，加快速度，他们大概率会在9月会议上宣布缩减在年内开始的决定。相反，如果就业数据只是符合预期，甚至不及预期，联储的缩减启动时间点就可能往后拖若干个月。\n桑德斯的判断是，相对疲软的就业数据其实未必就是美股市场的坏消息，因为这数据就意味着联储可能会推迟缩减开始的时间，并且以更小心谨慎，而非大刀阔斧的方式进行缩减操作。虽然联储主席鲍威尔上周强调，缩减购债计划与加息是完全不相干的两件事，但是大多数市场观察家还是倾向于将前者视为后者的先声。\n桑德斯解释说，联储未来的决策都要看不断出炉的各种经济数据来确定。这也就意味着，疫情的发展，以及经济受到的相应影响，将持续成为影响他们决策的重要因素。“最后结论确实让人遗憾，市场的表现归根结底还是要看疫情的脸色。”\n常态能否归来\n从另外一个角度，9月也被许多观察家们视作一个影响美国人情绪的微妙时间节点，即，伴随学生返校，大家会多少产生一些生活正在回归常态的感觉。与此同时，伴随学龄儿童的家长得以重新回归劳动力大军，以及失业救济额外补贴正式宣告到期，9月还是一个劳动力短缺局面预计将得到改善的重要节点。\n只不过，由于德尔塔变种病毒的传播，美国经济正面临着全新变数的威胁，比如不少企业都已经推迟了重新开门的时间。与此同时，伴随疫情的抬头，众多零售和餐饮企业也都遭遇了消费客流再度回落的打击。\nBITG股票和衍生产品策略部门负责人伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）直言不讳：“消费者信心已经发生了重大动摇。这与疫情的具体情况倒是关系没有密切，关键在于，我们原本都曾经预计，到了9月，生活就将基本回归常态了。”\n嘉信理财的桑德斯表示，对于美股市场而言，正常情况下，9月行情的头号决定者应该是联储，但是与此同时，疫情也完全有强行“抢戏”，成为主角的可能性。\n“我认为，这一次的返校季节可不是单纯的心理因素那么简单。”桑德斯表示，“人们将密切关注的是，在那些疫苗接种率相对较低的地方，学校保持开放状态，是否会造成局面的进一步恶化。显然，这是一项与时间密切相关的疫情风险。”\n伊曼纽尔表示，市场还将继续密切关注联储，以确定他们到底是如何持续推进其购债缩减计划的。\n“这一切正是9月会议上，人们最关注的问题之一，市场之所以希望联储提前宣布缩减操作日程表，是因为如果他们没有宣布，就很可能是意味着他们已经了解了疫情对经济和劳动力市场的损害（超过了预期）。”\n9月另外一种可能给市场造成冲击的经济数据则是通货膨胀数据。消费者价格指数报告将在9月14日发布。伊曼纽尔解释说，如果通货膨胀继续高企，就可能推高国债收益率，而这对于股市无疑是个坏消息。\n伊曼纽尔表示，市场同时还会关注美国触及债务上限的时间点，以及规模达到若干万亿美元的基础设施法案是否能够通过，预计国会9月就将展开对后者的审议。\n最后，美国从阿富汗的撤军也带来了额外的风险。伊曼纽尔表示：“各种事件接二连三地发生，很可能会造成较为长期的政治后果，如果有迹象显示当地将发生更大的动荡，则其影响还将变本加厉。”\n最糟的月份\n伊曼纽尔自己的预期是，9月间，美股市场上将发生一波非常可观的抛售行情，他指出，历史记录显示，9月和10月经常都是充满波动的。\n“当然这不是说股市必然要下跌，但是从我们的角度看去，认定只要联储不加息，市场就不会下跌的情绪弥漫太过广泛，市场参与者太过志得意满了。”\n他认为投资者应该认真采取措施，针对可能的下跌保护好自己，并建议大家考虑使用期权工具。“我们并不是说，你理应满怀恐惧。我们要说的是，你必须谨慎从事。你的投资组合已经取得了可观的利得，最好能够保住。”\n桑德斯也说，其实大规模的盘整对于市场而言本来就是家常便饭，只是一些投资者因为主流指数现在都在不断创下纪录，而觉得今日市场的弹力超过以往而已。她说，自己最担心的就是各种投机泡沫。“在MEME股票、特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）和虚拟货币等领域，轮动性盘整和熊市其实已经出现。”\n桑德斯说，在标普500指数各大板块当中，她目前只给予了医疗卫生一个板块以超越表现评级。目前，她寻找投资机会主要是基于因素，而不是基于板块了。比如，她现在正在研究各只不同个股的品质，寻找自由现金流或者盈利预期调升等利好消息。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819527123,"gmtCreate":1630079070662,"gmtModify":1676530220201,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/819527123","repostId":"1131853650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837322111,"gmtCreate":1629858545033,"gmtModify":1676530154125,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/837322111","repostId":"2162387390","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894905766,"gmtCreate":1628780530855,"gmtModify":1676529854018,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894905766","repostId":"2158225015","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2158225015","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628778784,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2158225015?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-12 22:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Focus] Micron Technology falls over 7% after Morgan Stanley downgrades its rating.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158225015","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月12日，美光科技盘中跌超7%，此前摩根士丹利将美光科技评级降至“持有”。\n此前该公司首席执行官Mehrotra指出，公司预计DRAM和NAND内存芯片的供应在2022年将保持紧张，预计2021年的","content":"<p>On August 12,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell more than 7% intraday, previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>We downgraded our rating on Micron Technology to \"Hold\".</p><p>Previously, the company's CEO Mehrotra pointed out that the company expects the supply of DRAM and NAND memory chips to remain tight in 2022, and the DRAM industry is expected to grow by slightly more than 20% in 2021, with supply falling short of demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e1a79f6522b9553c419a1d3e365bb0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Focus] Micron Technology falls over 7% after Morgan Stanley downgrades its rating.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Focus] Micron Technology falls over 7% after Morgan Stanley downgrades its rating.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-12 22:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 12,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology</a>It fell more than 7% intraday, previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>We downgraded our rating on Micron Technology to \"Hold\".</p><p>Previously, the company's CEO Mehrotra pointed out that the company expects the supply of DRAM and NAND memory chips to remain tight in 2022, and the DRAM industry is expected to grow by slightly more than 20% in 2021, with supply falling short of demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e1a79f6522b9553c419a1d3e365bb0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c571cf0b4357240a7b67c1db539b4a","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158225015","content_text":"8月12日，美光科技盘中跌超7%，此前摩根士丹利将美光科技评级降至“持有”。\n此前该公司首席执行官Mehrotra指出，公司预计DRAM和NAND内存芯片的供应在2022年将保持紧张，预计2021年的DRAM行业增长略高于20%，供应低于需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893463326,"gmtCreate":1628295962365,"gmtModify":1703504612411,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bj","listText":"Bj","text":"Bj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893463326","repostId":"1136593672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808540259,"gmtCreate":1627603468271,"gmtModify":1703493081827,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Kk","listText":"Kk","text":"Kk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808540259","repostId":"1109337387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808552464,"gmtCreate":1627603353258,"gmtModify":1703493076739,"author":{"id":"3577440999113647","authorId":"3577440999113647","name":"YongGuang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44506513dddf0624d6b604740dfba888","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577440999113647","idStr":"3577440999113647"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ij&nbsp;","listText":"Ij&nbsp;","text":"Ij","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808552464","repostId":"1109337387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}