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  Goldman Sachs in-depth report: Bulk rise, chaos in the United States? How much room is left for a surge
  越是泡沫与牛市傻傻分不清楚的时候，幺蛾子就越多。
  Goldman Sachs in-depth report: Bulk rise, chaos in the United States? How much room is left for a surge
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How much room is left for a surge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190822039","media":"格隆汇","summary":"越是泡沫与牛市傻傻分不清楚的时候，幺蛾子就越多。","content":"<p>Author: Sansi Macro People</p><p>The core logic of this article is based on Goldman Sachs' bullish report last month. However, due to the recent rapid increase in commodities, many targets<b>Just one month exceeded Goldman's one-year target increase.</b></p><p>Therefore, our current point of view is different from when this article was first published on Knowledge Planet on April 15th.</p><p>In the late stage of the bull market, there are many moths. Although the overall bullish direction remains unchanged, please be vigilant about some targets that have risen too fast.</p><p>For this set of deals proposed by Goldman Sachs last month, we don't intend to take profits immediately, but intend to fly in the bull market bubble for a while.</p><p>However, we do not recommend that individual investors who have not gotten on the bus before follow suit at this point in time.</p><p>A simple truth: when a conference call can attract more than 4,000 investors to attend the conference, it is obviously no longer a good point to open a position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5000bb6a5f8d798bcaa39f04e9461bc7\" tg-width=\"408\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>preface</b></p><p>In the past period of time, the sharp rise in commodity prices has attracted much attention. Although national ministries and commissions have repeatedly voiced to cool down the commodity market, they still cannot stop the sharp rise in commodity prices such as copper, iron ore, crude oil and agricultural products, which inevitably makes people rethink the logic of rising commodities.</p><p>Regarding commodities and inflation, Sansi Society has discussed them many times in previous issues.</p><p>On April 13, Goldman Sachs once again released a blockbuster report \"Copper is the New Oil\" (see the chart below). The report analyzed the supply and demand prospects of copper from the perspective of carbon emission reduction and green energy transformation, and set the next 12 monthly copper target price was raised to $11,000.</p><p>After the release of the report, copper prices have been rising all the way to this day, with an increase of 20%.</p><p>Figure: The picture below is a screenshot of the K-line on May 5.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d207689a018d4f149a60ec1b6f6f35f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But Goldman's bullish moves didn't stop there.</p><p>Before May Day, Goldman Sachs once again released a special report, continuing to be bullish on commodities.</p><p>The report is highly practical, jumps out of the traditional framework, and puts forward many insights and thoughts in combination with the new policy environment. The viewpoints are quite enlightening.</p><p>Today, we have extracted the core ideas of this Goldman Sachs report for your reference.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e75a75763fdb6d43c33bf6758adf235e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Body text</b></p><p><b>1) There is 13.5% upside in commodities</b></p><p>For more than two months before the release of the report (April 13), the prices of commodities have been consolidating (see the K-line trend in the chart above). The reason for the consolidation, in addition to digesting the last round of gains, is more important than fundamental factors: the re-blockade in Europe has led to stagnant demand growth, rising interest rates and macro resistance brought about by a stronger US dollar.</p><p>Now, however, these factors are gradually reversing. Economic activity, as measured by travel indicators, is returning to an upward trajectory, especially after vaccinations accelerated in Europe. At the same time, the seasonal recovery in transportation, manufacturing and construction industries has also begun and will continue to accelerate until June this year.</p><p>Figure 1: Global travel index (left) & the US Dollar Index and commodity index (right)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0114a3921f19a70c8d6c5cd030bf5886\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity prices are driven by volume (or demand level). When demand exceeds supply, scarcity premiums (i.e. spot premiums) appear, and this premium is difficult to be priced by the market beforehand. Because commodity supplies are inelastic in the near term, the extent of the undersupply is easily underestimated in the face of the impending large-scale demand growth. Because it is impossible for the supplier to dig a new mine or plant a new crop in a few months.</p><p>Goldman Sachs predicts that in the next six months, the overall price of commodities will have an upside of 13.5% (compared with April 28 when the report was released), and the oil price will reach US $80/barrel (CME group's WTI crude oil price is US $75/barrel), and the copper price (CME group code HG) will reach US $11,000/ton.</p><p>Chart: Goldman Sachs' price forecast table for major commodities</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c4e1aa387486e55f5e64e434babbbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Tighter supply and demand supports spot premiums</b></p><p>Since the surge in economic activity has been fully anticipated by the market, why didn't commodity prices immediately reflect this? (Cashing has started this month)</p><p>Before the spot premium of commodities can be sustained, there must be destocking. If the spot price is higher than the forward, the inventory surplus of the physical commodity will go out of the warehouse and be sold at the higher spot price, pushing the market back to the initial level (Figure 2).</p><p>Figure 2: Destocking and price curve</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/793f9e6761c22130c4fcc177e6735efd\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, only the shortage of physical goods can make the spot premium sustain, and at present, more than half of the commodity markets have spot premiums, especially agricultural products (Figure 3). The spot premium rates of commodities on several major exchanges such as CME, ICE, and LME have reached a 15-year high (Figure 4).</p><p>Figure 3: Commodity spot premium rate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc075f153ff86f0b4b3a58b0376c42f\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 4: Global commodity spot premium rate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43262a854e47779ee6ff339a88e6de03\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, Goldman Sachs believes that the continued spot premium indicates that the commodity market is in a state of insufficient inventory and tightening spot prices.</p><p><b>3) The rich-poor gap and the commodity bull market</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that the shortage of commodities will not only affect the entire bulk industry, but also affect many regions and industries from the United States, China and Europe to construction, automobiles and retail. Demand blowouts can be seen everywhere, and the core reason is that policymakers are more inclined to solve social problems rather than focus on macro stability.</p><p>From the EU Recovery Fund, which allocates 50% of its funds to Italy and Spain, to President Biden's latest economic stimulus package, low-income families have clearly been favored by policies. In the past month, Powell has visited homeless people in Washington many times and frequently mentioned the \"forgotten corner\" of the economy, indicating that the Fed's policy focus has shifted to employment, paying more attention to the balance of economic recovery than inflation.</p><p>Policy to address income and wealth inequality transfers the excess savings of a few high-income households to lower-income households with higher marginal propensity to consume, whether through debt, taxation or other means, and it almost always ensures strong demand growth, which is behind the overheating economy and physical inflationary pressures. This can be seen everywhere in the United States, from growing demand for gasoline to meat consumption increasing demand for grain feed.</p><p>Photo: American residents mainly consume chicken, and the price of boneless chicken breast in the United States has doubled recently.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09adea1a029ae67905475213f9709bf9\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is not difficult to find that every major commodity bull market and economic inflation in history is accompanied by populist policies of reducing people's income, wealth inequality and wealth redistribution without exception (Figure 5).</p><p>Figure 5: Narrowing the income gap mainly occurs during periods of economic overheating</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feae6950164428c16dddb04dde09fe33\" tg-width=\"754\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4) China is no longer the only source of growth</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that the commodity bull market in the first decade of this century is the result of global redistribution.</p><p>After China's accession to the WTO, as manufacturing jobs and wages flowed from the West to China, income and wealth shifted from American workers to a large number of low-paid Chinese workers.</p><p>Although multinational companies have profited a lot from it, the working class in the West has also been hit. The loss of employment opportunities accelerated the decline of labor force participation rate in the United States, while at the same time, demand from China began to boom (Figure 6).</p><p>Figure 6: Sino-US labor market and commodity bull market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6517258040a669a3d62731f3f6f12f\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Not only government-led infrastructure projects, but Chinese families also began to buy physical goods in large quantities after gaining new income, just as low-income families in the United States and Europe did in the late 1960s and 1970s.</p><p>Under this trend, China has become the overlord of commodity demand in the past 20 years, and China has also become synonymous with commodity demand. Many investors regard China's demand trends-whether credit, policy or trade-as a forward-looking indicator to measure commodity prices.</p><p>However, after two decades of record export-led growth, the 'arbitrage window' between China and the West has largely closed. Not only is China's real wage growth 22 times faster than that of the United States, but policy makers on both sides of the Pacific are beginning to realize the drawbacks of this' open arbitrage '.</p><p>On the one hand, Trump's trade protectionist policy aims to deal with the loss of employment and wage stagnation in American manufacturing industry. On the other hand, China is also tired of the high environmental costs of disposing of the world's garbage and producing highly polluting products. In a series of policies promulgated in the past three years, China has closed the door to foreign garbage imports and reduced the production capacity of highly polluting and energy-consuming industries such as the steel industry to improve the quality of life of residents.</p><p>These policies will not stop China's economic growth, but it will slow China's demand for physical goods. As China gradually shifts to an information-based, renewable energy-led economy, China will no longer be the only major growth source of commodity demand in the next decade (Figure 7).</p><p>Figure 7: Main source countries of future commodity demand</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6857fd14772a6f89394c6a7434fbf128\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5) Decarbonization becomes the keynote of macro policy</b></p><p>From Biden's Green New Deal to China's industrial policies based on carbon emission reduction and energy transition, \"decarbonization\" is becoming the policy tone of the global macro, which means that the left-tail risk of green capital expenditure is greatly reduced.</p><p>When Biden wrapped up last month's climate summit, he focused on how green capital spending would create jobs, not unlike past power infrastructure projects, such as the Tennessee Valley Authority in Roosevelt's New Deal, which also addressed both environmental and social issues.</p><p>Extending to trade policy, since agriculture, technology transfer, and manufacturing employment and other areas related to traditional protectionist policies, the United States, China, and Europe have all begun to focus their trade policy debates on carbon border taxes and strategic competitiveness.</p><p>In fact, \"carbon security\" is now becoming an important issue for a country-do countries have access to low-carbon technologies and raw materials to develop key green industries at home?</p><p>According to the attitude of the Biden administration and the Chinese government, before the carbon emissions tax is imposed, industries that cannot be decarbonized are at risk.</p><p>While setting provincial emissions targets, China has also set a cap on national emissions capacity, laying the foundation for tightening commodity supplies.</p><p>Among industrial metals, steel (accounting for 17% of China's carbon emissions) and aluminum (accounting for 4% of China's carbon emissions) are the most affected (Figure 8).</p><p>Unlike the supply-side reform of 2016, the long-term nature of decarbonization targets means capacity constraints will persist, which in turn will have a more lasting impact on fundamentals and prices.</p><p>Figure 8: Main sources of carbon emissions in China</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae2613c479ee4e2a82dd9ab00f2d8f96\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6) Economic restart and oil price revaluation</b></p><p>Global crude oil demand levels have remained at around 95 million barrels per day over the past six months (chart below). Goldman Sachs expects global crude oil demand to rebound sharply in the coming months (Figure 9)</p><p>Figure 9: Global crude oil demand will rebound sharply in the second quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0daa427227ee5704db352496678890\" tg-width=\"502\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First, the impact of the epidemic on the economy/travel activities is weakening due to more targeted epidemic prevention policies and the continued increase in vaccinations. There is clear evidence of more travel activity in vaccination-leading countries (US, Israel, UK). For example, gasoline demand in the US is close to 2019 levels (Figure 10), and fuel demand in aviation has also increased since March. 20%.</p><p>Figure 10: U.S. gasoline demand</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e979bd8b0d58e5f3f2c757004bab8197\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the epidemic situation in South America and Europe has also reached an inflection point, and the epidemic situation in India has finally slowed down.</p><p>Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to increase significantly starting in June, from the current 94.5 million barrels per day to 99 million barrels per day in the third quarter.</p><p>As the pace of vaccination accelerates in Europe, suppressed travel demand will be released. In particular, the easing of international travel restrictions that began in May is expected to lead to a return to global aviation fuel demand of 1.5 million barrels per day (although still 30% below pre-pandemic levels).</p><p>Goldman Sachs predicts that in the next six months, the price of Brent crude oil will reach US $80/barrel, and the price of CME group's WTI crude oil will reach US $75/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c4e1aa387486e55f5e64e434babbbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7) Copper is the new oil</b></p><p>Finally returning to the central thrust of this report: 'Copper is the new oil'.</p><p>Goldman Sachs sees green capital spending as the thrust of the next commodity supercycle, with copper at the top of the list.</p><p>But what is worrying is that copper is facing severely underinvested supply pressure. After experiencing the trauma of the price collapse in the mid-2010s, copper miners are cautious about increasing capital opening support, and now the peak of copper supply is just over two years away.</p><p>Goldman Sachs pointed out that copper prices soaring to record highs are the only way to solve the supply crisis. Just as oil presented in the commodity super bull market of the 2000s.</p><p>Goldman Sachs estimates that the green revolution will lead to the strongest ten-year growth period in the history of copper demand, with the share of green demand rising from 3% now to 16% in 2030 (Figure 11).</p><p>Figure 11: Copper demand and share changes in green energy production capacity</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a149e30db025e20fed7325e1dcfe0c1\" tg-width=\"1034\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since last year, the stimulus policies accompanying the epidemic have supported the demand recovery amid stagnant supply (China contributed significantly), leading to further strengthening the copper deficit. These dynamics are set to peak just when the copper market has its largest medium-to long-term deficit in history.</p><p>China's spot market is currently in a brief phase of weakness, providing investors with a short buying window (this report was first launched in the middle of last month) until destocking ends and restocking begins, which will last into the second half of the year.</p><p>Against this background, Goldman Sachs has raised its copper target price for the next 12 months to US $11,000/ton, US $11,875/ton in 2022, US $12,000/ton in 2023, US $14,000/ton in 2024, and US $14,000/ton in 2025 It is US $15,000/ton.</p><p>However, it should be noted that within one month after Goldman Sachs issued its report, copper prices have risen by more than 20%. Although it is still optimistic in the long term, the short-term increase is relatively large.</p><p><b>8) Are agricultural products overheated?</b></p><p>More than copper. As the surge in Chinese imports coupled with the severe weather in Brazil and the United States, the supply outlook for agricultural products is also increasingly tightening, which led to further rise in grain and oilseed prices in April, with corn prices exceeding $6.5/bushel and soybeans exceeding $15/bushel, the highest price since the drought in early 2010 (Figure 12).</p><p>Figure 12: Price increase of agricultural products (data from CME official website, data as of April 28, today's price is much higher)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45b49342b1bf36ccd462d062b25e6c2\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After this surge in grain prices, the market will face two prospects. If the crop harvest in the United States is not good in summer (there is a freezing warning in the corn belt in the United States, and 8% of planted crops are at risk of early damage), inventories will drop to extremely low levels, and prices will need to rise more first to suppress demand; Then it is expected that the output after the expansion of planting area may reduce the price of corn and soybean to $4.5 and $13.5 respectively.</p><p>In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that rising ethanol consumption and strong demand for soybean oil have boosted soybean crushing profits. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain market equilibrium by suppressing demand for old crops at current price levels.</p><p>As the supply and demand of soybeans in the United States are also extremely tight, and the recent better performance of new corn prices than soybeans will lead to the tilt of crop acreage towards corn (Figure 13), this indicates that soybean futures prices (CME soybean futures prices used by Goldman Sachs due in November) will also catch up with the increase of corn in the coming months.</p><p>Figure 13: Soybean/corn price ratio</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1222688aa1ac4b2958d90ff1a1554bfe\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Goldman Sachs raised its near-term corn target price to $7.30/bushel to reflect reduced competition from Brazilian exports in summer;</p><p>At the same time, Goldman Sachs raised its soybean forecast price for the next 6 months and 12 months to US $14.80 and US $14.00 to reflect the impact of limited expansion of planting area.</p><p>Similarly, based on the severe cold weather in winter wheat producing areas and the substitution effect of wheat on corn, Goldman Sachs raised the target price of wheat in the next 3/6/December to $7.40/7.30/7.20.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs is also optimistic about cotton prices, citing the recent downturn in cotton prices that will lead to a large-scale reduction in cotton planting area.</p><p>However, the prices of CME soybean, corn, and wheat futures in the past few days have all exceeded Goldman Sachs' one-year target price. Whether the market is overbought or Goldman Sachs is conservative is left to readers to think about.</p><p><b>9) The battle for digital currencies</b></p><p>Bitcoin's performance relative to gold has stagnated since the beginning of March (Figure 14). Goldman Sachs believes that there are two main reasons behind this:</p><p>First, risk assets are losing momentum as risk sentiment has become more cautious due to a surge in global novel coronavirus pneumonia cases and markets have returned to favor defensive assets.</p><p>Figure 14: Bitcoin Gold Price Ratio (Shallow) & Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite Indicator (Deep)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182c60f92df9d71310a21c4fa0eae0ca\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, Bitcoin gives way to other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH), highlighting the fact that competition among cryptocurrencies for dominance in stores of value remains, and holding Bitcoin adds an additional source of risk.</p><p>Traditional long-term stores of value such as gold, art, diamonds, wine, and collectibles all have use value in addition to being a store of value. The reason why use value is important is that practical demand can absorb fluctuations caused by investment demand, thus smoothing price fluctuations, which means that asset prices are unlikely to be zero. Therefore, it is too early for Bitcoin to compete with gold for safe-haven demand, but the two can co-exist.</p><p>While Bitcoin benefits from loose liquidity, its high energy consumption, lack of utility value and weak ESG score make its store of value needs easily replaced by another better-designed cryptocurrency.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin has significantly underperformed Ethereum, the second largest digital currency. After the May Day holiday, the price of Ethereum (ETH) continued to hit new highs.</p><p>Not just the price, but Ethereum's trading volume is also climbing. Since CME group (CME) launched ETH futures in February, the product's trading volume and open interest have continued to climb (Figure 15), which shows that the market's acceptance of ETH is rising.</p><p>Figure 15: ETH Futures Volume and Open Interest</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc492e64bba846c7aa673c29b59f3d32\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: The data comes from CME official website, and the data is as of April 28</p><p>The following table shows the basic elements of CME group ETH futures</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072fb91a65dbd153a4dbe30a308111c\" tg-width=\"428\" tg-height=\"162\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have discussed some hot applications of Ethereum earlier, but such a rapid increase still exceeded our expectations.</p><p>Generally speaking, these two reports of Goldman Sachs are good in terms of theoretical viewpoints and practical effects.</p><p>However, please be vigilant about these targets that have risen too fast.</p><p>The more stupid the distinction between a bubble and a bull market is, the more moths there will be.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs in-depth report: Bulk rise, chaos in the United States? How much room is left for a surge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs in-depth report: Bulk rise, chaos in the United States? How much room is left for a surge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-10 21:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Sansi Macro People</p><p>The core logic of this article is based on Goldman Sachs' bullish report last month. However, due to the recent rapid increase in commodities, many targets<b>Just one month exceeded Goldman's one-year target increase.</b></p><p>Therefore, our current point of view is different from when this article was first published on Knowledge Planet on April 15th.</p><p>In the late stage of the bull market, there are many moths. Although the overall bullish direction remains unchanged, please be vigilant about some targets that have risen too fast.</p><p>For this set of deals proposed by Goldman Sachs last month, we don't intend to take profits immediately, but intend to fly in the bull market bubble for a while.</p><p>However, we do not recommend that individual investors who have not gotten on the bus before follow suit at this point in time.</p><p>A simple truth: when a conference call can attract more than 4,000 investors to attend the conference, it is obviously no longer a good point to open a position.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5000bb6a5f8d798bcaa39f04e9461bc7\" tg-width=\"408\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>preface</b></p><p>In the past period of time, the sharp rise in commodity prices has attracted much attention. Although national ministries and commissions have repeatedly voiced to cool down the commodity market, they still cannot stop the sharp rise in commodity prices such as copper, iron ore, crude oil and agricultural products, which inevitably makes people rethink the logic of rising commodities.</p><p>Regarding commodities and inflation, Sansi Society has discussed them many times in previous issues.</p><p>On April 13, Goldman Sachs once again released a blockbuster report \"Copper is the New Oil\" (see the chart below). The report analyzed the supply and demand prospects of copper from the perspective of carbon emission reduction and green energy transformation, and set the next 12 monthly copper target price was raised to $11,000.</p><p>After the release of the report, copper prices have been rising all the way to this day, with an increase of 20%.</p><p>Figure: The picture below is a screenshot of the K-line on May 5.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d207689a018d4f149a60ec1b6f6f35f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But Goldman's bullish moves didn't stop there.</p><p>Before May Day, Goldman Sachs once again released a special report, continuing to be bullish on commodities.</p><p>The report is highly practical, jumps out of the traditional framework, and puts forward many insights and thoughts in combination with the new policy environment. The viewpoints are quite enlightening.</p><p>Today, we have extracted the core ideas of this Goldman Sachs report for your reference.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e75a75763fdb6d43c33bf6758adf235e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Body text</b></p><p><b>1) There is 13.5% upside in commodities</b></p><p>For more than two months before the release of the report (April 13), the prices of commodities have been consolidating (see the K-line trend in the chart above). The reason for the consolidation, in addition to digesting the last round of gains, is more important than fundamental factors: the re-blockade in Europe has led to stagnant demand growth, rising interest rates and macro resistance brought about by a stronger US dollar.</p><p>Now, however, these factors are gradually reversing. Economic activity, as measured by travel indicators, is returning to an upward trajectory, especially after vaccinations accelerated in Europe. At the same time, the seasonal recovery in transportation, manufacturing and construction industries has also begun and will continue to accelerate until June this year.</p><p>Figure 1: Global travel index (left) & the US Dollar Index and commodity index (right)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0114a3921f19a70c8d6c5cd030bf5886\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Commodity prices are driven by volume (or demand level). When demand exceeds supply, scarcity premiums (i.e. spot premiums) appear, and this premium is difficult to be priced by the market beforehand. Because commodity supplies are inelastic in the near term, the extent of the undersupply is easily underestimated in the face of the impending large-scale demand growth. Because it is impossible for the supplier to dig a new mine or plant a new crop in a few months.</p><p>Goldman Sachs predicts that in the next six months, the overall price of commodities will have an upside of 13.5% (compared with April 28 when the report was released), and the oil price will reach US $80/barrel (CME group's WTI crude oil price is US $75/barrel), and the copper price (CME group code HG) will reach US $11,000/ton.</p><p>Chart: Goldman Sachs' price forecast table for major commodities</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c4e1aa387486e55f5e64e434babbbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2) Tighter supply and demand supports spot premiums</b></p><p>Since the surge in economic activity has been fully anticipated by the market, why didn't commodity prices immediately reflect this? (Cashing has started this month)</p><p>Before the spot premium of commodities can be sustained, there must be destocking. If the spot price is higher than the forward, the inventory surplus of the physical commodity will go out of the warehouse and be sold at the higher spot price, pushing the market back to the initial level (Figure 2).</p><p>Figure 2: Destocking and price curve</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/793f9e6761c22130c4fcc177e6735efd\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, only the shortage of physical goods can make the spot premium sustain, and at present, more than half of the commodity markets have spot premiums, especially agricultural products (Figure 3). The spot premium rates of commodities on several major exchanges such as CME, ICE, and LME have reached a 15-year high (Figure 4).</p><p>Figure 3: Commodity spot premium rate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc075f153ff86f0b4b3a58b0376c42f\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Figure 4: Global commodity spot premium rate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43262a854e47779ee6ff339a88e6de03\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, Goldman Sachs believes that the continued spot premium indicates that the commodity market is in a state of insufficient inventory and tightening spot prices.</p><p><b>3) The rich-poor gap and the commodity bull market</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that the shortage of commodities will not only affect the entire bulk industry, but also affect many regions and industries from the United States, China and Europe to construction, automobiles and retail. Demand blowouts can be seen everywhere, and the core reason is that policymakers are more inclined to solve social problems rather than focus on macro stability.</p><p>From the EU Recovery Fund, which allocates 50% of its funds to Italy and Spain, to President Biden's latest economic stimulus package, low-income families have clearly been favored by policies. In the past month, Powell has visited homeless people in Washington many times and frequently mentioned the \"forgotten corner\" of the economy, indicating that the Fed's policy focus has shifted to employment, paying more attention to the balance of economic recovery than inflation.</p><p>Policy to address income and wealth inequality transfers the excess savings of a few high-income households to lower-income households with higher marginal propensity to consume, whether through debt, taxation or other means, and it almost always ensures strong demand growth, which is behind the overheating economy and physical inflationary pressures. This can be seen everywhere in the United States, from growing demand for gasoline to meat consumption increasing demand for grain feed.</p><p>Photo: American residents mainly consume chicken, and the price of boneless chicken breast in the United States has doubled recently.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09adea1a029ae67905475213f9709bf9\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It is not difficult to find that every major commodity bull market and economic inflation in history is accompanied by populist policies of reducing people's income, wealth inequality and wealth redistribution without exception (Figure 5).</p><p>Figure 5: Narrowing the income gap mainly occurs during periods of economic overheating</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feae6950164428c16dddb04dde09fe33\" tg-width=\"754\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4) China is no longer the only source of growth</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that the commodity bull market in the first decade of this century is the result of global redistribution.</p><p>After China's accession to the WTO, as manufacturing jobs and wages flowed from the West to China, income and wealth shifted from American workers to a large number of low-paid Chinese workers.</p><p>Although multinational companies have profited a lot from it, the working class in the West has also been hit. The loss of employment opportunities accelerated the decline of labor force participation rate in the United States, while at the same time, demand from China began to boom (Figure 6).</p><p>Figure 6: Sino-US labor market and commodity bull market</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6517258040a669a3d62731f3f6f12f\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Not only government-led infrastructure projects, but Chinese families also began to buy physical goods in large quantities after gaining new income, just as low-income families in the United States and Europe did in the late 1960s and 1970s.</p><p>Under this trend, China has become the overlord of commodity demand in the past 20 years, and China has also become synonymous with commodity demand. Many investors regard China's demand trends-whether credit, policy or trade-as a forward-looking indicator to measure commodity prices.</p><p>However, after two decades of record export-led growth, the 'arbitrage window' between China and the West has largely closed. Not only is China's real wage growth 22 times faster than that of the United States, but policy makers on both sides of the Pacific are beginning to realize the drawbacks of this' open arbitrage '.</p><p>On the one hand, Trump's trade protectionist policy aims to deal with the loss of employment and wage stagnation in American manufacturing industry. On the other hand, China is also tired of the high environmental costs of disposing of the world's garbage and producing highly polluting products. In a series of policies promulgated in the past three years, China has closed the door to foreign garbage imports and reduced the production capacity of highly polluting and energy-consuming industries such as the steel industry to improve the quality of life of residents.</p><p>These policies will not stop China's economic growth, but it will slow China's demand for physical goods. As China gradually shifts to an information-based, renewable energy-led economy, China will no longer be the only major growth source of commodity demand in the next decade (Figure 7).</p><p>Figure 7: Main source countries of future commodity demand</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6857fd14772a6f89394c6a7434fbf128\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5) Decarbonization becomes the keynote of macro policy</b></p><p>From Biden's Green New Deal to China's industrial policies based on carbon emission reduction and energy transition, \"decarbonization\" is becoming the policy tone of the global macro, which means that the left-tail risk of green capital expenditure is greatly reduced.</p><p>When Biden wrapped up last month's climate summit, he focused on how green capital spending would create jobs, not unlike past power infrastructure projects, such as the Tennessee Valley Authority in Roosevelt's New Deal, which also addressed both environmental and social issues.</p><p>Extending to trade policy, since agriculture, technology transfer, and manufacturing employment and other areas related to traditional protectionist policies, the United States, China, and Europe have all begun to focus their trade policy debates on carbon border taxes and strategic competitiveness.</p><p>In fact, \"carbon security\" is now becoming an important issue for a country-do countries have access to low-carbon technologies and raw materials to develop key green industries at home?</p><p>According to the attitude of the Biden administration and the Chinese government, before the carbon emissions tax is imposed, industries that cannot be decarbonized are at risk.</p><p>While setting provincial emissions targets, China has also set a cap on national emissions capacity, laying the foundation for tightening commodity supplies.</p><p>Among industrial metals, steel (accounting for 17% of China's carbon emissions) and aluminum (accounting for 4% of China's carbon emissions) are the most affected (Figure 8).</p><p>Unlike the supply-side reform of 2016, the long-term nature of decarbonization targets means capacity constraints will persist, which in turn will have a more lasting impact on fundamentals and prices.</p><p>Figure 8: Main sources of carbon emissions in China</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae2613c479ee4e2a82dd9ab00f2d8f96\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6) Economic restart and oil price revaluation</b></p><p>Global crude oil demand levels have remained at around 95 million barrels per day over the past six months (chart below). Goldman Sachs expects global crude oil demand to rebound sharply in the coming months (Figure 9)</p><p>Figure 9: Global crude oil demand will rebound sharply in the second quarter</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0daa427227ee5704db352496678890\" tg-width=\"502\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First, the impact of the epidemic on the economy/travel activities is weakening due to more targeted epidemic prevention policies and the continued increase in vaccinations. There is clear evidence of more travel activity in vaccination-leading countries (US, Israel, UK). For example, gasoline demand in the US is close to 2019 levels (Figure 10), and fuel demand in aviation has also increased since March. 20%.</p><p>Figure 10: U.S. gasoline demand</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e979bd8b0d58e5f3f2c757004bab8197\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the epidemic situation in South America and Europe has also reached an inflection point, and the epidemic situation in India has finally slowed down.</p><p>Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to increase significantly starting in June, from the current 94.5 million barrels per day to 99 million barrels per day in the third quarter.</p><p>As the pace of vaccination accelerates in Europe, suppressed travel demand will be released. In particular, the easing of international travel restrictions that began in May is expected to lead to a return to global aviation fuel demand of 1.5 million barrels per day (although still 30% below pre-pandemic levels).</p><p>Goldman Sachs predicts that in the next six months, the price of Brent crude oil will reach US $80/barrel, and the price of CME group's WTI crude oil will reach US $75/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c4e1aa387486e55f5e64e434babbbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7) Copper is the new oil</b></p><p>Finally returning to the central thrust of this report: 'Copper is the new oil'.</p><p>Goldman Sachs sees green capital spending as the thrust of the next commodity supercycle, with copper at the top of the list.</p><p>But what is worrying is that copper is facing severely underinvested supply pressure. After experiencing the trauma of the price collapse in the mid-2010s, copper miners are cautious about increasing capital opening support, and now the peak of copper supply is just over two years away.</p><p>Goldman Sachs pointed out that copper prices soaring to record highs are the only way to solve the supply crisis. Just as oil presented in the commodity super bull market of the 2000s.</p><p>Goldman Sachs estimates that the green revolution will lead to the strongest ten-year growth period in the history of copper demand, with the share of green demand rising from 3% now to 16% in 2030 (Figure 11).</p><p>Figure 11: Copper demand and share changes in green energy production capacity</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a149e30db025e20fed7325e1dcfe0c1\" tg-width=\"1034\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since last year, the stimulus policies accompanying the epidemic have supported the demand recovery amid stagnant supply (China contributed significantly), leading to further strengthening the copper deficit. These dynamics are set to peak just when the copper market has its largest medium-to long-term deficit in history.</p><p>China's spot market is currently in a brief phase of weakness, providing investors with a short buying window (this report was first launched in the middle of last month) until destocking ends and restocking begins, which will last into the second half of the year.</p><p>Against this background, Goldman Sachs has raised its copper target price for the next 12 months to US $11,000/ton, US $11,875/ton in 2022, US $12,000/ton in 2023, US $14,000/ton in 2024, and US $14,000/ton in 2025 It is US $15,000/ton.</p><p>However, it should be noted that within one month after Goldman Sachs issued its report, copper prices have risen by more than 20%. Although it is still optimistic in the long term, the short-term increase is relatively large.</p><p><b>8) Are agricultural products overheated?</b></p><p>More than copper. As the surge in Chinese imports coupled with the severe weather in Brazil and the United States, the supply outlook for agricultural products is also increasingly tightening, which led to further rise in grain and oilseed prices in April, with corn prices exceeding $6.5/bushel and soybeans exceeding $15/bushel, the highest price since the drought in early 2010 (Figure 12).</p><p>Figure 12: Price increase of agricultural products (data from CME official website, data as of April 28, today's price is much higher)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45b49342b1bf36ccd462d062b25e6c2\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After this surge in grain prices, the market will face two prospects. If the crop harvest in the United States is not good in summer (there is a freezing warning in the corn belt in the United States, and 8% of planted crops are at risk of early damage), inventories will drop to extremely low levels, and prices will need to rise more first to suppress demand; Then it is expected that the output after the expansion of planting area may reduce the price of corn and soybean to $4.5 and $13.5 respectively.</p><p>In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that rising ethanol consumption and strong demand for soybean oil have boosted soybean crushing profits. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain market equilibrium by suppressing demand for old crops at current price levels.</p><p>As the supply and demand of soybeans in the United States are also extremely tight, and the recent better performance of new corn prices than soybeans will lead to the tilt of crop acreage towards corn (Figure 13), this indicates that soybean futures prices (CME soybean futures prices used by Goldman Sachs due in November) will also catch up with the increase of corn in the coming months.</p><p>Figure 13: Soybean/corn price ratio</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1222688aa1ac4b2958d90ff1a1554bfe\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Goldman Sachs raised its near-term corn target price to $7.30/bushel to reflect reduced competition from Brazilian exports in summer;</p><p>At the same time, Goldman Sachs raised its soybean forecast price for the next 6 months and 12 months to US $14.80 and US $14.00 to reflect the impact of limited expansion of planting area.</p><p>Similarly, based on the severe cold weather in winter wheat producing areas and the substitution effect of wheat on corn, Goldman Sachs raised the target price of wheat in the next 3/6/December to $7.40/7.30/7.20.</p><p>In addition, Goldman Sachs is also optimistic about cotton prices, citing the recent downturn in cotton prices that will lead to a large-scale reduction in cotton planting area.</p><p>However, the prices of CME soybean, corn, and wheat futures in the past few days have all exceeded Goldman Sachs' one-year target price. Whether the market is overbought or Goldman Sachs is conservative is left to readers to think about.</p><p><b>9) The battle for digital currencies</b></p><p>Bitcoin's performance relative to gold has stagnated since the beginning of March (Figure 14). Goldman Sachs believes that there are two main reasons behind this:</p><p>First, risk assets are losing momentum as risk sentiment has become more cautious due to a surge in global novel coronavirus pneumonia cases and markets have returned to favor defensive assets.</p><p>Figure 14: Bitcoin Gold Price Ratio (Shallow) & Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite Indicator (Deep)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182c60f92df9d71310a21c4fa0eae0ca\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, Bitcoin gives way to other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH), highlighting the fact that competition among cryptocurrencies for dominance in stores of value remains, and holding Bitcoin adds an additional source of risk.</p><p>Traditional long-term stores of value such as gold, art, diamonds, wine, and collectibles all have use value in addition to being a store of value. The reason why use value is important is that practical demand can absorb fluctuations caused by investment demand, thus smoothing price fluctuations, which means that asset prices are unlikely to be zero. Therefore, it is too early for Bitcoin to compete with gold for safe-haven demand, but the two can co-exist.</p><p>While Bitcoin benefits from loose liquidity, its high energy consumption, lack of utility value and weak ESG score make its store of value needs easily replaced by another better-designed cryptocurrency.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin has significantly underperformed Ethereum, the second largest digital currency. After the May Day holiday, the price of Ethereum (ETH) continued to hit new highs.</p><p>Not just the price, but Ethereum's trading volume is also climbing. Since CME group (CME) launched ETH futures in February, the product's trading volume and open interest have continued to climb (Figure 15), which shows that the market's acceptance of ETH is rising.</p><p>Figure 15: ETH Futures Volume and Open Interest</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc492e64bba846c7aa673c29b59f3d32\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: The data comes from CME official website, and the data is as of April 28</p><p>The following table shows the basic elements of CME group ETH futures</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072fb91a65dbd153a4dbe30a308111c\" tg-width=\"428\" tg-height=\"162\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have discussed some hot applications of Ethereum earlier, but such a rapid increase still exceeded our expectations.</p><p>Generally speaking, these two reports of Goldman Sachs are good in terms of theoretical viewpoints and practical effects.</p><p>However, please be vigilant about these targets that have risen too fast.</p><p>The more stupid the distinction between a bubble and a bull market is, the more moths there will be.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/464985\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac730ff187b3128886ce735bf21c2b8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/464985","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1190822039","content_text":"作者：三思宏观人‍‍本文的核心逻辑乃基于高盛上月的看多报告，但由于近期大宗商品涨幅过快，不少标的仅一个月就超过了高盛提出的一年目标涨幅。因此，我们现在的观点，已与本文在4月15日首发在知识星球的时候有所不同。牛市后期幺蛾子多，虽然整体看多的方向不变，但对于某些涨幅过快的标的，大家请保持警惕。对于高盛上月提出的这套交易，我们并不打算马上止盈，打算再在牛市泡沫中飞一会。但是，我们也不建议之前没有上车的个人投资者在这个时间点还来跟风参与。一个简单的道理：当一次电话会议就能吸引4000多位投资人参会的时候，已明显不再是一个好的建仓点。前言过去一段时间，大宗商品价格大幅上涨备受关注。尽管国家部委多次发声给大宗商品市场降温，却依然挡不住铜、铁矿石、原油和农产品等大宗商品价格的猛烈上涨，这不免让人重新思考大宗商品上涨的逻辑。关于大宗商品和通胀，三思社已在往期内容中有过多次讨论了。在4月13号，高盛再次发布了一篇重磅报告《铜是新的石油》（见下图），报告从碳减排、绿色能源转型的角度分析铜的供需前景，并将未来12个月铜目标价提升至11000美元。报告发布后，铜价一路上涨至今，涨幅达20%。图：下图为5月5日K线截图。但高盛的多头动作并未止步于此。五一节前，高盛再一次发布专题报告，继续看多大宗商品。该报告实战性较强，跳出了传统框架，结合新的政策环境提出了不少洞见和思考，观点颇具启发性。今天我们把这篇高盛报告的核心观点提炼出来，供各位参考。 正文1）大宗商品存在13.5%的上涨空间在报告（4月13日）发布前的两个多月，大宗商品的价格一直在盘整（见上图的K线走势）。盘整的原因，除了消化上一轮的涨幅以外，更重要还是基本面因素：欧洲重新封锁导致需求增长停滞以及利率上升、美元走强带来的宏观阻力。然而现在，这些因素正在逐步逆转。以出行指标衡量的经济活动正在重回上升轨迹，尤其在欧洲加速接种疫苗之后，这种势头越发强劲。与此同时，交通运输、制造业和建筑业的季节性复苏也已开始，而且会在今年六月前持续加速。图1：全球各地区出行指数（左）&美元指数与大宗商品指数（右）大宗商品价格是由量（或者需求水平）驱动的，当需求量超过供应量，稀缺性溢价（即现货溢价）就出现了，而这种溢价又很难在事前被市场定价。由于大宗商品供应在短期内缺乏弹性，面对即将到来的大规模需求增长，供应不足的程度很容易被低估。因为供给方不可能在几个月时间里就新挖一座矿或者新种一种农作物。高盛预计，在未来6个月，大宗商品的整体价格存在13.5%的上行空间（相较于报告发布的4月28日），油价将达到80美元/桶（芝商所旗下的WTI原油价格为75美元/桶），铜价（芝商所代码为HG）将达到1.1万美元/吨。图：高盛对主要大宗商品的价格预测表2）供需趋紧支撑现货溢价既然经济活动激增已被市场充分预期，那为什么大宗商品价格没有立即反映这一点?（这个月已开始兑现）在大宗商品现货溢价得以持续之前，必定会出现去库存。如果即期价格高于远期，实物商品的库存盈余将会出库，在较高的即期价格下被出售，将市场推回到初始水平(图2)。图2：去库存与价格曲线因此，只有实物短缺才能使现货溢价持续，而目前超过一半的大宗商品市场存在现货溢价，尤其农产品较为突出(图3)，CME、ICE、LME等几大交易所的大宗商品现货溢价率已经创下15年新高(图4)。图3：大宗商品现货溢价率图4：全球大宗商品现货溢价率因此，高盛认为：持续的现货溢价表明，大宗商品市场正处于库存不足、现货趋紧的状态。3）贫富差距与大宗商品牛市高盛认为，大宗商品的紧俏不仅会波及整个大宗行业，还会影响从美国、中国和欧洲到建筑、汽车和零售等多个地区和行业。需求井喷的状况随处可见，核心原因是决策者更倾向于解决社会问题，而不是聚焦宏观稳定。从《欧盟复苏基金》将50%的资金分配给意大利和西班牙，到总统拜登最新经济刺激方案，低收入家庭明显受到了政策倾斜。过去一个月，鲍威尔多次访问华盛顿的无家可归者，频繁提及经济中“被遗忘的角落”，表明美联储政策重心已经向就业倾斜，更关注经济复苏的均衡性而不是通胀问题。解决收入和财富不平等的政策将少数高收入家庭的多余储蓄，转移到边际消费倾向更高的低收入家庭，无论是通过负债、征税还是其他方式实现，它几乎总能确保强劲的需求增长，而这正是经济过热和实物通胀压力背后的原因。这一点在美国随处可见，从汽油需求增长到肉类消费提高谷物饲料需求。图：美国居民以鸡肉消费为主，而近期美国的无骨鸡胸肉已涨价一倍。不难发现，历史上每一次大的商品牛市和经济通胀，都无一例外的伴随着百姓收入减少、财富不平等、财富再分配的民粹主义政策(图5)。图5：缩小收入差距主要在经济过热时期4）中国不再是唯一增长源高盛认为，本世纪头十年的大宗商品牛市，就是全球再分配的结果。中国加入世贸组织后，随着制造业工作机会和工资从西方流向中国，收入和财富从美国工人转向大量低报酬的中国工人。虽然跨国企业从中获利颇丰，但西方的劳工阶层也受到冲击。就业机会的流失加速了美国劳动参与率下降，而与此同时，来自中国的需求开始繁荣(图6)。图6：中美劳动力市场与大宗商品牛市不只是政府主导的基建工程，中国家庭在获得了新收入后，也开始大量购买实物商品，正如上世纪60年代末和70年代美国和欧洲低收入家庭所做的那样。在这趋势下，中国在过去20年里成为了大宗商品需求的霸主，中国也成了大宗商品需求的代名词。许多投资者将中国需求动向——无论是信贷、政策还是贸易——视为衡量大宗商品价格的前瞻指标。然而，在经历了二十年创纪录的出口导向型增长之后，中西方之间的‘套利窗口‘已基本关闭。不仅中国的实际工资增长速度比美国快22倍，太平洋两岸的政策制定者也开始意识到这种'开放套利'的弊端。一方面，特朗普的贸易保护主义政策旨在应对美国制造业就业流失和工资停滞。另一方面，中国也已厌倦了为处理世界垃圾和生产高污染产品所承担的高昂环境成本。在过去三年颁布的一系列政策中，中国关闭了洋垃圾进口的大门，并削减高污染高耗能行业譬如钢铁行业的产能，以提高居民的生活质量。这些政策不会阻止中国的经济增长，但它将减缓中国对实物商品的需求。随着中国逐渐转向以信息为基础、可再生能源为主导的经济体，下个十年的中国，将不再是大宗商品需求的唯一主要增长源(图7)。图7：未来大宗商品需求主要来源国5）脱碳成为宏观政策的基调从拜登的绿色新政到中国基于碳减排和能源转型的产业政策，“脱碳”正成为全球宏观的政策基调，这意味着绿色资本支出的左尾风险大大降低。拜登在上个月的气候峰会做总结时，重点谈到了绿色资本支出将如何创造就业，这与过去的电力基础设施项目没有什么不同，比如罗斯福新政中的田纳西河谷管理局，它当时也同时解决了环境问题和社会问题。延伸到贸易政策，自农业、技术转让和制造业就业等与传统保护主义政策相关的领域之后，美国、中国和欧洲都开始将贸易政策的争论焦点围绕碳边境税和战略竞争力展开。事实上，“碳安全”现在正成为一个国家的重要问题——各国是否有机会获得低碳技术和原材料，以发展国内的关键绿色行业?根据拜登政府和中国政府的态度，征收碳排放税之前，无法脱碳的行业都存在风险。中国在制定省级排放目标的同时，也对全国排放能力设定了上限，这为大宗商品供应收紧奠定了基础。在工业金属中，钢铁(占中国碳排放的17%)和铝(占中国碳排放的4%)受影响最大(图8)。与2016年的供给侧改革不同，脱碳目标的长期性质意味着产能限制将持续存在，进而对基本面和价格产生更持久的影响。图8：中国碳排放主要来源6）经济重启与油价重估过去6个月，全球原油需求水平一直保持在约9500万桶/天的水平（下图）。高盛预计未来几个月全球原油需求将出现大幅反弹(图9)图9：全球原油需求二季度将大幅反弹首先，疫情对经济/出行活动的影响正在减弱，原因是防疫政策更有针对性和疫苗接种持续增加。有明确的证据表明，疫苗接种领先的国家(美国、以色列、英国)出行活动更多，例如，美国的汽油需求已接近2019年的水平(图10)，航空的燃油需求也自3月份以来增长了20%。图10：美国汽油需求此外，南美和欧洲的疫情也已出现拐点，印度疫情也终于增速放缓。因此，高盛预计6月份开始全球石油需求将大幅增加，从目前9450万桶/天增加到第三季度9900万桶/天。随着欧洲疫苗接种步伐加快，被抑制的旅行需求将得到释放。特别是，预计5月份开始的国际旅行限制放松，将导致全球航空油需求恢复150万桶/天(尽管仍比疫情前的水平低30%)。高盛预计，在未来6个月，布伦特原油价格将达到80美元/桶，芝商所旗下的WTI原油价格将达到75美元/桶。7）铜是新的石油终于回到了本报告的中心主旨：'铜是新的石油'。高盛认为绿色资本支出是下一轮大宗商品超级周期的主旨，而铜则是重中之重。但令人担忧的是，铜正面临严重投资不足的供应压力。在经历了2010年代中期价格暴跌带来的创伤后，铜矿企业对增加资本开支持谨慎态度，现在距离铜矿供应峰值只有两年多的时间。高盛指出，铜价飙出历史新高是解决供应危机的唯一途径。就像石油在21世纪头十年的大宗商品超级牛市中所呈现的那样。高盛估计绿色革命将催生铜需求历史上最强的十年增长期，绿色需求份额将从现在的3%上升到2030年的16%(图11)。图11：绿色能源产能的铜需求量及份额变化去年以来，相伴于疫情的刺激政策在供应停滞的情况下支撑了需求复苏（中国贡献很大），导致铜赤字进一步强化，这些动态正好将在铜市场出现有史以来最大的中长期赤字时达到顶峰。中国现货市场目前处于短暂疲软阶段，为投资者提供了短暂的买入窗口（本报告于上月中旬首发），直到去库存结束并开始补库存，后者将持续到下半年。在此背景下，高盛将未来12个月铜目标价提高到1.1万美元/吨，2022年为11875美元/吨，2023年为1.2万美元/吨，2024年为1.4万美元/吨，2025年为1.5万美元/吨。但需注意的是，在高盛发报告后的一个月之内，铜价已涨幅逾20%。虽然仍长期看好，但短期涨幅较大。8）农产品过热了么？不止于铜。由于中国进口激增再叠加巴西和美国的恶劣天气，农产品的供应前景也日益趋紧，这导致4月份谷物和油籽价格进一步上涨，玉米价格超过6.5美元/蒲式耳，大豆超过15美元/蒲式耳，创下自2010年初干旱以来的最高价格(图12)。图12：农产品价格涨幅（数据来自CME官网，数据截至4月28日，今天的价格又高了不少）这次谷物价格大涨后，市场将面临着两种前景。如果夏季美国农作物收成不好（美国玉米带出现冰冻预警，8%的种植作物面临早期受损风险），库存将降至极低水平，价格需要先上涨更多以压抑需求；然后预期扩大种植面积后的产量可能又会使玉米和大豆价格分别降至4.5美元和13.5美元。此外，美国能源情报署(EIA)报告称，乙醇消费量不断上升、豆油需求强劲，这拉升了大豆压榨的利润。因此，在当前的价格水平上很难通过压抑旧作物需求来维持市场均衡。由于美国大豆供需也极度偏紧，以及最近新玉米价格表现好于大豆将导致作物种植面积向玉米倾斜(图13)，这预示着未来几个月，大豆期货价格（高盛用的11月到期的CME大豆期货价格）也将迎头赶上玉米的涨幅。图13：大豆/玉米价格比高盛将近期玉米目标价上调至7.30美元/蒲式耳，以反映夏季来自巴西出口的竞争减少；同时高盛将未来6个月和12个月大豆预测价上调至14.80美元和14.00美元，以反映种植面积扩张受限的影响。同理，基于冬小麦产区出现严寒天气以及小麦对玉米的替代效应，高盛将未来3/6/12月的小麦目标价上调至7.40/7.30/7.20美元。此外，高盛还看好棉花价格，理由是近期棉价低迷会导致棉花种植面积大规模减少。但这几天的CME大豆、玉米、小麦期货价格均已超过了高盛的一年目标价，是市场超买了还是高盛保守了，这就交给各位读者思考了。9）数字货币的争斗自3月初以来，比特币相对于黄金表现已经停滞(图14)，高盛认为这背后主要有两个原因：首先，由于全球新冠肺炎病例激增，风险情绪变得更加谨慎，市场重新青睐防御性资产，风险资产正在失去动能。图14：比特币黄金价格比（浅）& 高盛风险偏好指标（深）其次，比特币让位于以太币(ETH)等其他加密货币，这凸显了一个事实：即加密货币之间对价值储存主导地位的竞争仍然存在，持有比特币增加了额外风险来源。传统的长期价值储存方式如黄金、艺术品、钻石、葡萄酒和收藏品，除了作为价值储存方式外，都具有使用价值。使用价值之所以重要，是因为实用需求能够吸收因投资需求带来的波动，从而抚平价格波动，这意味着资产价格不太可能为零。因此，比特币与黄金争夺避险需求还为时过早，但两者可以共存。虽然比特币受益于流动性宽松，但由于其高能耗，缺少实用价值和较弱的ESG评分，这使得它的价值存储需求很容易被另一种设计更好的加密货币替代。今年以来，比特币表现明显跑输第二大数字货币以太币，在五一假期结束后，以太坊(ETH)价格持续创下新高。不只是价格，以太坊的交易量也在攀升。自芝商所（CME）2月份推出ETH期货以来，该产品成交量和持仓量持续攀升（图15），这表明市场对ETH的接受度正在不断上升。图15：ETH期货成交量和持仓量注：数据来自CME官网，数据截至4月28日下表为芝商所ETH期货的基本要素关于以太坊的一些热点应用，我们在前文有过讨论，但这么迅猛的涨幅还是超出我们预期了。总的来说，高盛的这两篇报告无论是理论观点还是实战效果都是不错的。但是，对于这些涨幅过快的标的，请大家务必保持警惕。越是泡沫与牛市傻傻分不清楚的时候，幺蛾子就越多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325912033,"gmtCreate":1615856987322,"gmtModify":1704787503114,"author":{"id":"3577221458132518","authorId":"3577221458132518","name":"更深得蓝","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577221458132518","idStr":"3577221458132518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325912033","repostId":"1147867743","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}