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赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
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2022-04-02
Okie
Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021
预计2021年全年,未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元。
Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021
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赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
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2022-01-03
Okie
Preview: American non-farm drama is staged! Hong Kong stocks, US stocks open on Monday
摘要:财经数据方面:中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面:AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面:环龙控股、
Preview: American non-farm drama is staged! Hong Kong stocks, US stocks open on Monday
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赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
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2021-12-30
Ok
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赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
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2021-03-31
Okie
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赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
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2021-03-28
Okie
Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress
概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时,市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期
Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress
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赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
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2021-03-26
Okie
News said that Xiaohongshu hired CFO and considered IPO in the United States
中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行(ipo)打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露,该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官,并考虑最早于今年在美国上
News said that Xiaohongshu hired CFO and considered IPO in the United States
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赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
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2021-03-24
okie
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赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
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2021-03-23
okie
Tencent Music Q4 and Full-Year Financial Report Bright, After-Hours Stock Price Once Hit a New High
盘前,市场对腾讯音乐娱乐集团即将发布的财报普遍感到乐观,助推了腾讯音乐股价的强劲表现,其盘中股价一度上冲至31.12美元,创下上市以来的新高,并报收于30.89美元。在腾讯音乐公布财报后,其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%,并创下31.55美元的历史新高。其中环比净增长为430万,付费率达9%,高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。
Tencent Music Q4 and Full-Year Financial Report Bright, After-Hours Stock Price Once Hit a New High
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赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
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2021-03-22
Okie
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赤耳三皮
赤耳三皮
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2021-03-21
Okie
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","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011179175","repostId":"1139458358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139458358","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648826231,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139458358?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-01 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Micro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139458358","media":"智通财经网","summary":"预计2021年全年,未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>April 1 (Friday),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro loan network</a>The stock price is higher, and as of press time, the stock is up more than 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4368d937c8c52c46f173cacfeccc34f8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" 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}\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicro-loan network soared 70%, and the company expects its revenue to be 698 to 708 million yuan in 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-01 23:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>April 1 (Friday),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">Micro loan network</a>The stock price is higher, and as of press time, the stock is up more than 70%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4368d937c8c52c46f173cacfeccc34f8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Weidai.com preliminarily estimates that the unaudited preliminary revenue for the whole year of 2021 is expected to be between 698 million and 708 million yuan (the same below); The unaudited preliminary operating loss is expected to be between 744 million and 754 million yuan; It is estimated that for the full year of 2021, the unaudited preliminary net loss will be RMB1,144 million to RMB1,154 million; Preliminary unaudited cash and cash equivalents are expected to be between 225 million and 235 million yuan.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/695763.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab89d977e495f0bfa031f9d1dca6c63","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/695763.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1139458358","content_text":"4月1日(周五),微贷网股价走高,截止发稿,该股涨超70%。微贷网初步预计,2021年全年,未经审计的初步收入预计在6.98亿至7.08亿元人民币(下同)之间;未经审计的初步运营亏损预计在7.44亿至7.54亿元之间;预计2021年全年,未经审计的初步净亏损为11.44亿元至11.54亿元;未经审计的初步现金和现金等价物预计在2.25亿至2.35亿元之间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001357896,"gmtCreate":1641175980914,"gmtModify":1676533579343,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001357896","repostId":"1122097379","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122097379","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641167896,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122097379?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-03 07:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Preview: American non-farm drama is staged! Hong Kong stocks, US stocks open on Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122097379","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要:财经数据方面:中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面:AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面:环龙控股、","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract<b>:</b></p><p>Financial data: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US PMI, US ADP employment data, US non-agricultural data and other events: AMD 2022 product online launch meeting, FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, Federal Reserve Chairman Bullard's speech and other new stocks: Huanlong Holdings, Deying Holdings, Jinli permanent magnet subscription closed<b>Monday, January 3rd Keywords: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Hong Kong Stock Connect/Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect suspended trading, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks opened</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Monday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors Can Watch<b>US Markit Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>Annual Retail Sales Rate in Hong Kong, China</b>Etc.<b>Focus on the opening of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks.</b></p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">Huanlong Holdings</a>Subscription closed.</p><p>In addition, due to the New Year's Day holiday arrangement, the A-share market was closed, and the trading of Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect was suspended<b>。 Hong Kong stocks and US stocks trade normally.</b></p><p><b>Tuesday, January 4th Keywords: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, AMD 2022 Product Online Launch Conference</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Tuesday, in terms of financial data,</b>Investors Can Watch<b>China Caixin Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>US ISM Manufacturing PMI</b>。</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">American Supermicro Corporation</a></b>The 2022 product online launch event will be held, where President and CEO Dr. Lisa Su will highlight innovations and solutions using upcoming AMD Ryzen processors and AMD Radeon graphics cards.</p><p><b>Wednesday, Jan. 5 KEYWORDS: Small Nonfarm ADP Employment Data, API Crude, EIA Crude, Markit Services PMI</b></p><p><b>On Wednesday,</b>The United States will announce<b>Small Non-Farm ADP Employment Data</b>。 Meanwhile, investors can focus on the U.S.<b>API crude oil inventories for the week</b>、<b>EIA Crude Oil Inventories</b>, and<b>US December Markit Services PMI Final Value</b>Etc.</p><p><b>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a></b>Will participate in CES 2022 from January 5-January 8. Jeff Fisher, Senior Vice President of Nvidia GeForce, and Ali Kani, Vice President of Nvidia's Automotive Division, will demonstrate new breakthroughs in accelerated computing in design, simulation, gaming, and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><b>Jan. 6 KEYWORDS Thursday: U.S. Unemployment Claims, U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Bullard</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Thursday, in terms of global financial data, China's Caixin Services PMI, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of January 1, the U.S. November trade balance, the monthly rate of factory orders in the United States in November</b>And other data will be released one after another<b>。</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial events,</b>Federal Reserve FOMC to announce<b>Minutes of monetary policy meetings</b>。</p><p><b>Friday, Jan. 7KEYWORDS: U.S. nonfarm payrolls, U.S. December unemployment rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Friday, in terms of global financial data,</b>The United States will announce<b>December seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll population data</b>as well as<b>December Unemployment Rate.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial events,</b>FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Fed President Bullard spoke on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>Little Yellow Duck Parent Company<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">Deying Holdings</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">Jinli permanent magnet</a>Subscription closed.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Preview: American non-farm drama is staged! Hong Kong stocks, US stocks open on Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPreview: American non-farm drama is staged! Hong Kong stocks, US stocks open on Monday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-03 07:58</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract<b>:</b></p><p>Financial data: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US PMI, US ADP employment data, US non-agricultural data and other events: AMD 2022 product online launch meeting, FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, Federal Reserve Chairman Bullard's speech and other new stocks: Huanlong Holdings, Deying Holdings, Jinli permanent magnet subscription closed<b>Monday, January 3rd Keywords: US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Hong Kong Stock Connect/Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect suspended trading, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks opened</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/778228eec5cc5864b127a25cfcd16f61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Monday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors Can Watch<b>US Markit Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>Annual Retail Sales Rate in Hong Kong, China</b>Etc.<b>Focus on the opening of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks.</b></p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02260\">Huanlong Holdings</a>Subscription closed.</p><p>In addition, due to the New Year's Day holiday arrangement, the A-share market was closed, and the trading of Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect was suspended<b>。 Hong Kong stocks and US stocks trade normally.</b></p><p><b>Tuesday, January 4th Keywords: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, AMD 2022 Product Online Launch Conference</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0ed2087a3a91258aa795829be5c3ac\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Tuesday, in terms of financial data,</b>Investors Can Watch<b>China Caixin Manufacturing PMI</b>, and<b>US ISM Manufacturing PMI</b>。</p><p>In addition,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">American Supermicro Corporation</a></b>The 2022 product online launch event will be held, where President and CEO Dr. Lisa Su will highlight innovations and solutions using upcoming AMD Ryzen processors and AMD Radeon graphics cards.</p><p><b>Wednesday, Jan. 5 KEYWORDS: Small Nonfarm ADP Employment Data, API Crude, EIA Crude, Markit Services PMI</b></p><p><b>On Wednesday,</b>The United States will announce<b>Small Non-Farm ADP Employment Data</b>。 Meanwhile, investors can focus on the U.S.<b>API crude oil inventories for the week</b>、<b>EIA Crude Oil Inventories</b>, and<b>US December Markit Services PMI Final Value</b>Etc.</p><p><b>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a></b>Will participate in CES 2022 from January 5-January 8. Jeff Fisher, Senior Vice President of Nvidia GeForce, and Ali Kani, Vice President of Nvidia's Automotive Division, will demonstrate new breakthroughs in accelerated computing in design, simulation, gaming, and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><b>Jan. 6 KEYWORDS Thursday: U.S. Unemployment Claims, U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Bullard</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c48f735ec55f74f49fc54a791575f8c\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Thursday, in terms of global financial data, China's Caixin Services PMI, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of January 1, the U.S. November trade balance, the monthly rate of factory orders in the United States in November</b>And other data will be released one after another<b>。</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial events,</b>Federal Reserve FOMC to announce<b>Minutes of monetary policy meetings</b>。</p><p><b>Friday, Jan. 7KEYWORDS: U.S. nonfarm payrolls, U.S. December unemployment rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32067221f0041d5df0bd72f63b76174d\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>On Friday, in terms of global financial data,</b>The United States will announce<b>December seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll population data</b>as well as<b>December Unemployment Rate.</b></p><p><b>In terms of financial events,</b>FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Fed President Bullard spoke on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b>Little Yellow Duck Parent Company<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02250\">Deying Holdings</a></b>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">Jinli permanent magnet</a>Subscription closed.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122097379","content_text":"摘要:财经数据方面:中国财新制造业PMI、美国PMI、美国ADP就业数据、美国非农数据等事件方面:AMD 2022产品线上首发会、FOMC货币政策会议纪要、联储主席布拉德发表讲话等新股方面:环龙控股、德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束1月3日 周一关键词:美国ISM制造业PMI,港股通/沪深股通暂停交易,港股、美股开市周一,经济数据方面,投资者可关注美国Markit制造业PMI、以及中国香港零售销售额年率等。重点关注港股及美股开市情况。新股方面,环龙控股申购结束。此外,因元旦假期安排,A股休市,港股通、沪深股通暂停交易。港股、美股正常交易。1月4日 周二关键词:中国财新制造业PMI,美国ISM制造业PMI,AMD 2022产品线上首发会周二,财经数据方面,投资者可关注中国财新制造业PMI、以及美国ISM制造业PMI。此外,美国超微公司将举办2022年产品线上首发会,总裁兼CEO苏姿丰博士(Dr. Lisa Su)将在会上重点介绍采用即将推出的AMD锐龙处理器和AMD Radeon显卡的创新和解决方案。1月5日 周三关键词:小非农ADP就业数据,API原油,EIA原油,Markit服务业PMI周三,美国将公布小非农ADP就业数据。同时,投资者可关注美国当周API原油库存、EIA原油库存、以及美国12月Markit服务业PMI终值等。此外,英伟达将参加1月5日-1月8日举办的CES 2022。 英伟达 GeForce 高级副总裁 Jeff Fisher 和英伟达汽车部门副总裁Ali Kani将展示加速计算在设计、仿真、游戏和自动驾驶汽车方面的新突破。1月6日关键词周四:美国初请失业金、美国ISM非制造业PMI、布拉德周四,全球财经数据方面,中国财新服务业PMI、美国1月1日当周初请失业金人数、美国11月贸易帐、美国11月工厂订单月率等数据将陆续公布。财经事件方面,美联储FOMC将公布货币政策会议纪要。1月7日 周五关键词:美国非农就业人口,美国12月失业率周五,全球财经数据方面,美国将公布12月季调后非农就业人口数据以及12月失业率。财经事件方面,FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。新股方面,小黄鸭母公司德盈控股、金力永磁申购结束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0,"518880":0,".DJI":0,"GLD":0,"MGCmain":0,".IXIC":0,".SPX":0,"SGUmain":0,"IAU":0,"SGCmain":0,"GDX":0,"NUGT":0,"SImain":0,"DUST":0,"GCmain":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003081497,"gmtCreate":1640825687041,"gmtModify":1676533545015,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok ","listText":"Ok ","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003081497","repostId":"1146550494","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354334953,"gmtCreate":1617140992272,"gmtModify":1704696268829,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/354334953","repostId":"2123421823","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352812517,"gmtCreate":1616926713739,"gmtModify":1704800013850,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352812517","repostId":"1176152843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176152843","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616998863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176152843?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-29 14:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176152843","media":"洪灝的中国市场...","summary":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时,市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期","content":"<p><b>summary</b></p><p>The unprecedented strength of growth stocks versus value stocks began to retreat until June 2020. At the end of November 2020, when value really began to return to the king, the market barely noticed the reversal of relatively strong growth stocks. This growth stock strength, built on credit expansion, linearly extrapolated growth expectations, and human greed, at the same time, under conditions of full convenience provided by extremely low-cost Internet brokers, ultimately formed a growth stock bubble. It is not an exaggeration to describe this market situation as \"COVID-19 bubble\". This is true for both the Chinese and American markets. Last June, when we released the<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>》, we took the lead in prompting the upcoming value plate rotation. In our publication last November,<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>In, we recommended value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin, and suggested that emerging markets, Chinese A shares and Hong Kong stocks are long-term opportunities.</p><p>Right now, the growth bubble is threatened by rising bond yields and volatility and is beginning to converge rapidly. In the short term, continuing to invest in growth is effectively linearly extrapolating the growth situation during the COVID pandemic. Thus, this kind of thinking is what is truly unimaginative, and imagination is a necessary factor for long-term growth investing. To put it bluntly, this way of thinking is simply pessimism, as it predicts that the growth pattern during Covid will continue forever.</p><p>The global economy is recovering. The US-China economic cycle is more intertwined than ever, as Chinese exports have become a more important input to the previously shut-down US economy. The strength in commodities bodes well for upstream inflationary pressures in China in the coming months, likely to be reflected in rising U.S. bond yields and volatility. Growth stocks are long-lived assets and therefore are sensitive to rising yields and volatility. Simply put, rising yields have depressed growth multiples, while rising volatility has made people more eager to take profits from significant gains in growth stocks. Funds should continue to rotate to relatively safe value stocks.</p><p>The overall strength of cyclical and commodities is in full swing. A headache is where should the money go in the next phase of the recovery? While the definitions of cyclical sectors and commodities are absolute, the definitions of value sectors are relative. In this current situation, we can temporarily replace value with undervaluation. Or, \"value investing\" now is similar to \"valuation investing\". Both cyclical and non-cyclical values are repairing their weaknesses but remain below long-term averages. The opposite is true for cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth. In cyclical and non-cyclical value stocks such as consumer, industrial, financial and telecommunications, valuations will still repair further.</p><p>Still, geopolitical risks are also on the rise. In recent high-level dialogues, the two sides have faced each other and imposed new sanctions. These risks will drag the market down in the short term. While China's economy continues to repair, China's RRR is unlikely to fall significantly. And China's credit expansion, hampered by the property bubble, will begin to slow. Historically, the weakening of the RMB has been broadly in sync with economic and economic, geopolitical risks, as it was in 2008 and 2018. Changes in valuations, as measured by market capitalization to GDP, suggest that index gains are limited. Therefore, we continue to believe that the opportunity lies more in the rotation of the value sectors than in the overall absolute index level. Of course, we must also emphasize that China's long-term investment value cannot be expressed by the price fluctuations of bonds, exchange rates, commodities and stock markets in the short term.</p><p>This is our report dated 27 March 2021 in English, entitled<b>Value Striking Back</b>The Chinese translation version of. Thanks for reading.</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p><b>Global economic recovery</b></p><p>The recovery has arrived. This round of economic recovery is likely to continue in the short term, and the recovery is likely to exceed market expectations in the near future, unless the COVID-19 pandemic repeats, exacerbating the uncertainty of the economic outlook. Due to market demand, we have conducted a series of book clubs in many cities over the past few months, sharing my years of research experience with readers and fans. Many of the participants have professional investment backgrounds. Our book \"<i><b>Forecast: Economic, cyclical and market bubbles</b></i>\"has been printed a record ten times within four months of publication.</p><p>During our tour, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly exceeded the upper end of the 2,900-3,600 trading range we forecast in last November's outlook report. When we released last June \"<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>In, we first hinted at the upcoming value style rotation. In our published \"<b><i>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</i></b>In the report, we recommend value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin to investors, and discuss the long-term investment value of emerging markets, mainland China and Hong Kong. Obviously, capital market participants are curious to know our predictions for the next move in the market. This is the question we get asked most often in book clubs and the most challenging part of our work.</p><p>To show the stage of China's monetary policy cycle, we compare the year-on-year changes in China's RRR with the spot price of rebar (<b>Figure 1</b>)。 These two variables are closely related. The year-on-year change of RRR is stabilizing, indicating that the monetary easing phase with RRR as a proxy indicator has basically ended. If China is loose on its currency<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>The self-restraint of expansion causes the economy to cool, then the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered again. However, this is not our baseline scenario. We believe that the deposit reserve ratio is unlikely to change in the future, which is similar to the operation law of the monetary policy cycle from 2013 to 2014 and from 2017 to early 2018. At this stage, the RRR cut will be regarded by the market as a signal of economic weakness, but will trigger the market to sell off cyclical assets.</p><p><b>Chart 1: Rebar price and RRR trend show economic recovery and commodity strength at high levels</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p>At the same time, the U.S. economy is also recovering. We compared the leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, the U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve, and the performance of the S&P 500. These important and reliable economic leading indicators simultaneously indicate a strong economic recovery (<b>Figure 2</b>)。 Our European indicator points in the same direction (the European chart is not shown in this article). In the baseline scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic is under control, the world's largest economies are recovering simultaneously, and the recovery will become stronger and stronger. These observations are consistent with our outlook report published on November 20, 2020, entitled<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>The predictions made in were consistent.</p><p><b>Chart 2: The leading component of U.S. consumer expectations, the yield curve, and the S&P 500 all reflect the economic recovery</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p><b>Interleaving and Linkage of Sino-US Economies</b></p><p>The economies of China and the United States are so closely linked that many major economic variables are highly correlated. In our opinion, there is actually only one economic cycle that really needs to be analyzed. On September 3, 2018, we published a seminal research paper entitled<i><b>The conflict of the Sino-US cycle</b></i>\", which explores the economic cycles of China and the United States and how these cycles interweave to affect the market. We use quantitative methods to verify the operation and impact of the short economic cycle of the two countries for about three years, and demonstrate how China's economic cycle leads the United States, and how these short-term cycles nest with each other to form medium and long cycles.</p><p>The linkage of the Sino-US economic cycle will continue, and key economic variables will continue to be highly correlated. We believe that Chinese exports have become an even more important input to the U.S. economy given the very different ways in which the two countries have managed the pandemic. As a result, the economic cycles of the two largest economies are now necessarily more closely intertwined. Therefore, China's inflation outlook will continue to have a significant impact on U.S. Treasury Bond yields; And the US Treasury Bond yield, which has long been the global risk-free benchmark interest rate, will in turn affect China's stock market. In fact, we can see how closely these economic variables are linked in the chart below.<b>Figure 3</b>)</p><p><b>Chart 3: The economic cycles of China and the United States are closely intertwined; All key economic variables are highly correlated</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p>To understand the stage of China's credit cycle, we compare China's credit conditions with the relative performance of growth stocks versus value stocks (<b>Figure 4</b>)。 We can see credit expansion driving growth stocks to strengthen relative to value stocks and vice versa. We note that the strength of growth stocks began in 2019, when China's economic cycle was beginning to heal from the rock bottom of the US-China trade war. But in 2020, as credit continued to expand and COVID spread, the relative performance of growth stocks reached unprecedented levels of strength.</p><p>The pandemic likely changed the market's view of growth stocks, many of which are internet platform companies. After all, these companies have shown good earnings resilience in the face of the COVID pandemic. Strong profitability, continued credit expansion and changing expectations during the pandemic are necessary to breed a \"Covid bubble\" in growth stocks. But we want to remind everyone not to extrapolate this kind of growth in an extraordinary period online.</p><p>In the post-epidemic era, the economy stopped shrinking and continued to recover. In a sustained economic environment, the relative strength of growth stocks will weaken. In other words, growth stocks no longer grab market share from value stocks during the phase of economic expansion. Now it seems that this is indeed the case (<b>Figure 4</b>), growth stocks will undoubtedly continue to grow-don't misunderstand our view of growth as a key long-term factor in investment strategy, but the unreasonable growth expectations embedded in their valuations are likely to weaken-as at the moment, the \"COVID bubble\" is shrinking.</p><p><b>Chart 4: Credit expansion pushes the relative strength of growth versus value to unprecedented heights</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>In the U.S. market, our quantitative analysis validates a similar \"Covid bubble\" — the relative strength of growth stocks versus value stocks is much higher than historically. But now the relative strength of growth versus value is reversing with the rollout of vaccination programs (<b>Figure 5</b>)。</p><p>As we have shown in the chart above the relationship between the Chinese PPI cycle, commodity strength and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield, it is likely that the Chinese PPI will move further higher in the near term. At the same time, the U.S. ten-year Treasury Bond yield will rise in tandem. As a result, the volatility of U.S. bonds is likely to increase in the coming months.</p><p>From<b>Figure 5</b>We can see that the volatility of the bond market is negatively correlated with the relative strength of growth stocks. Growth stocks are essentially long-lived assets, as evidenced by their high valuations. Intuitively, in a stable environment, it is easier for investors to extrapolate growth linearly to infinite forwards. Therefore, rising volatility in the bond market will put pressure on the valuation of long-term assets, such as growth stocks.</p><p><b>Chart 5: Rising bond volatility will compress growth stock valuations, further weakening their relative strength</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further see that the performance of cyclical sectors has far outperformed the market with the economic recovery (<b>Figure 6</b>)。 In fact, the strong performance of cyclical sectors is likely to have surprised market companies. When we look forward to 2021 (\"<i><b>Looking forward to 2021: Return of the King of Value</b></i>Most people found it hard to believe when they first predicted a strong return of cyclical stocks in 20201120. However, now the rise of cyclical sectors has gradually become the consensus of the market, and their strong performance seems to fully reflect the prospect of economic recovery. So what other investment opportunities does the market have in the next phase of the economic recovery?</p><p><b>Chart 6: Cyclical sectors have outperformed significantly as the economy recovers</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further divide value and growth into cyclical value/growth and non-cyclical value/growth. We can find that although cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth have outperformed, their strength is fading. At the same time, cyclical and non-cyclical values are gradually recovering from their past declines (<b>Figure 7</b>)。 These observations are consistent with the previous<b>Figure 5</b>And<b>Figure 6</b>Consistent.</p><p>That is to say, even if value is returning as a king, its upward momentum can still be further enhanced. However, the strength of growth stocks is waning. As a result, value stocks, both cyclical and non-cyclical, will continue to be the best investment option for the next phase of economic recovery.</p><p><b>Chart 7: Cyclical and non-cyclical value sectors strengthen, cyclical and non-cyclical growth sectors weaken</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Geopolitical risks disturb markets</b></p><p>The recent high-level dialogue in Alaska saw sparkling and fiery rhetoric from both sides highlight the delicate relationship between the two economic powerhouses. Geopolitical risks are high, and historically, the RMB has been an effective proxy indicator for such risks. We can see that every depreciation of the yuan is accompanied by increased political or economic risks, such as during the 2008 financial crisis, and during the Sino-US trade war in 2018 (<b>Figure 8</b>)。</p><p>In addition, the bond yield difference between China and the United States is often the leading signal of RMB depreciation, and at present, this spread is narrowing rapidly. While the RMB depreciates, the Shanghai Composite Index tends to weaken simultaneously. Of course, the movements of currencies, bond yields and stock markets are a reflection of weak economic fundamentals amid economic or geopolitical risks. However, the current economic recovery is likely to offset these adverse factors to some extent.</p><p><b>Chart 8: Higher geopolitical risks, narrowing bond yield difference between China and the United States, indicating the pressure of RMB depreciation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>Overall, market returns have reached historically high levels relative to economic growth. Year-over-year changes in the total market cap-to-GDP ratio have historically tended to peak around 7% (<b>Figure 9</b>)。 Historically, when this ratio exceeded 7%, it corresponded to either the bubble period of 2007 and 2015 or the economic recovery phase of 2009. Even after early August 2009, when the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP changed by more than 7% year-on-year, the Shanghai Composite Index stopped hitting new highs. In the months that followed, the Shanghai Stock Exchange traded sideways until it began falling again in 2010 after the People's Bank of China began tightening monetary policy. Therefore, we continue to think that the opportunity for the market lies in value rotation, or changes in the internal structure of the market, rather than the absolute level of the index.</p><p><b>Chart 9: Market Returns, Valuation Changes Have Reached All-Time Highs</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p>","source":"lsy1573477999576","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Hao: The Return of the King of Value is in Progress\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">洪灝的中国市场...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-29 14:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>summary</b></p><p>The unprecedented strength of growth stocks versus value stocks began to retreat until June 2020. At the end of November 2020, when value really began to return to the king, the market barely noticed the reversal of relatively strong growth stocks. This growth stock strength, built on credit expansion, linearly extrapolated growth expectations, and human greed, at the same time, under conditions of full convenience provided by extremely low-cost Internet brokers, ultimately formed a growth stock bubble. It is not an exaggeration to describe this market situation as \"COVID-19 bubble\". This is true for both the Chinese and American markets. Last June, when we released the<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>》, we took the lead in prompting the upcoming value plate rotation. In our publication last November,<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>In, we recommended value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin, and suggested that emerging markets, Chinese A shares and Hong Kong stocks are long-term opportunities.</p><p>Right now, the growth bubble is threatened by rising bond yields and volatility and is beginning to converge rapidly. In the short term, continuing to invest in growth is effectively linearly extrapolating the growth situation during the COVID pandemic. Thus, this kind of thinking is what is truly unimaginative, and imagination is a necessary factor for long-term growth investing. To put it bluntly, this way of thinking is simply pessimism, as it predicts that the growth pattern during Covid will continue forever.</p><p>The global economy is recovering. The US-China economic cycle is more intertwined than ever, as Chinese exports have become a more important input to the previously shut-down US economy. The strength in commodities bodes well for upstream inflationary pressures in China in the coming months, likely to be reflected in rising U.S. bond yields and volatility. Growth stocks are long-lived assets and therefore are sensitive to rising yields and volatility. Simply put, rising yields have depressed growth multiples, while rising volatility has made people more eager to take profits from significant gains in growth stocks. Funds should continue to rotate to relatively safe value stocks.</p><p>The overall strength of cyclical and commodities is in full swing. A headache is where should the money go in the next phase of the recovery? While the definitions of cyclical sectors and commodities are absolute, the definitions of value sectors are relative. In this current situation, we can temporarily replace value with undervaluation. Or, \"value investing\" now is similar to \"valuation investing\". Both cyclical and non-cyclical values are repairing their weaknesses but remain below long-term averages. The opposite is true for cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth. In cyclical and non-cyclical value stocks such as consumer, industrial, financial and telecommunications, valuations will still repair further.</p><p>Still, geopolitical risks are also on the rise. In recent high-level dialogues, the two sides have faced each other and imposed new sanctions. These risks will drag the market down in the short term. While China's economy continues to repair, China's RRR is unlikely to fall significantly. And China's credit expansion, hampered by the property bubble, will begin to slow. Historically, the weakening of the RMB has been broadly in sync with economic and economic, geopolitical risks, as it was in 2008 and 2018. Changes in valuations, as measured by market capitalization to GDP, suggest that index gains are limited. Therefore, we continue to believe that the opportunity lies more in the rotation of the value sectors than in the overall absolute index level. Of course, we must also emphasize that China's long-term investment value cannot be expressed by the price fluctuations of bonds, exchange rates, commodities and stock markets in the short term.</p><p>This is our report dated 27 March 2021 in English, entitled<b>Value Striking Back</b>The Chinese translation version of. Thanks for reading.</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p><b>Global economic recovery</b></p><p>The recovery has arrived. This round of economic recovery is likely to continue in the short term, and the recovery is likely to exceed market expectations in the near future, unless the COVID-19 pandemic repeats, exacerbating the uncertainty of the economic outlook. Due to market demand, we have conducted a series of book clubs in many cities over the past few months, sharing my years of research experience with readers and fans. Many of the participants have professional investment backgrounds. Our book \"<i><b>Forecast: Economic, cyclical and market bubbles</b></i>\"has been printed a record ten times within four months of publication.</p><p>During our tour, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly exceeded the upper end of the 2,900-3,600 trading range we forecast in last November's outlook report. When we released last June \"<i><b>Outlook for the second half of 2020: Qianlong is ready to use</b></i>In, we first hinted at the upcoming value style rotation. In our published \"<b><i>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</i></b>In the report, we recommend value stocks, commodities and Bitcoin to investors, and discuss the long-term investment value of emerging markets, mainland China and Hong Kong. Obviously, capital market participants are curious to know our predictions for the next move in the market. This is the question we get asked most often in book clubs and the most challenging part of our work.</p><p>To show the stage of China's monetary policy cycle, we compare the year-on-year changes in China's RRR with the spot price of rebar (<b>Figure 1</b>)。 These two variables are closely related. The year-on-year change of RRR is stabilizing, indicating that the monetary easing phase with RRR as a proxy indicator has basically ended. If China is loose on its currency<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">And credit</a>The self-restraint of expansion causes the economy to cool, then the deposit reserve ratio will be lowered again. However, this is not our baseline scenario. We believe that the deposit reserve ratio is unlikely to change in the future, which is similar to the operation law of the monetary policy cycle from 2013 to 2014 and from 2017 to early 2018. At this stage, the RRR cut will be regarded by the market as a signal of economic weakness, but will trigger the market to sell off cyclical assets.</p><p><b>Chart 1: Rebar price and RRR trend show economic recovery and commodity strength at high levels</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b37320d574c6e7f41ce208626e3dcd\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p>At the same time, the U.S. economy is also recovering. We compared the leading components of U.S. consumer expectations, the U.S. Treasury Bond yield curve, and the performance of the S&P 500. These important and reliable economic leading indicators simultaneously indicate a strong economic recovery (<b>Figure 2</b>)。 Our European indicator points in the same direction (the European chart is not shown in this article). In the baseline scenario where the COVID-19 pandemic is under control, the world's largest economies are recovering simultaneously, and the recovery will become stronger and stronger. These observations are consistent with our outlook report published on November 20, 2020, entitled<i><b>2021 Outlook: Return of the Value King</b></i>The predictions made in were consistent.</p><p><b>Chart 2: The leading component of U.S. consumer expectations, the yield curve, and the S&P 500 all reflect the economic recovery</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e9af901558fbc4a3cd0809794e9fe8\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">BOCOM International</a></p><p><b>Interleaving and Linkage of Sino-US Economies</b></p><p>The economies of China and the United States are so closely linked that many major economic variables are highly correlated. In our opinion, there is actually only one economic cycle that really needs to be analyzed. On September 3, 2018, we published a seminal research paper entitled<i><b>The conflict of the Sino-US cycle</b></i>\", which explores the economic cycles of China and the United States and how these cycles interweave to affect the market. We use quantitative methods to verify the operation and impact of the short economic cycle of the two countries for about three years, and demonstrate how China's economic cycle leads the United States, and how these short-term cycles nest with each other to form medium and long cycles.</p><p>The linkage of the Sino-US economic cycle will continue, and key economic variables will continue to be highly correlated. We believe that Chinese exports have become an even more important input to the U.S. economy given the very different ways in which the two countries have managed the pandemic. As a result, the economic cycles of the two largest economies are now necessarily more closely intertwined. Therefore, China's inflation outlook will continue to have a significant impact on U.S. Treasury Bond yields; And the US Treasury Bond yield, which has long been the global risk-free benchmark interest rate, will in turn affect China's stock market. In fact, we can see how closely these economic variables are linked in the chart below.<b>Figure 3</b>)</p><p><b>Chart 3: The economic cycles of China and the United States are closely intertwined; All key economic variables are highly correlated</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be60ca9c697079030b80e294059fe63\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Value is returning to the king</b></p><p>To understand the stage of China's credit cycle, we compare China's credit conditions with the relative performance of growth stocks versus value stocks (<b>Figure 4</b>)。 We can see credit expansion driving growth stocks to strengthen relative to value stocks and vice versa. We note that the strength of growth stocks began in 2019, when China's economic cycle was beginning to heal from the rock bottom of the US-China trade war. But in 2020, as credit continued to expand and COVID spread, the relative performance of growth stocks reached unprecedented levels of strength.</p><p>The pandemic likely changed the market's view of growth stocks, many of which are internet platform companies. After all, these companies have shown good earnings resilience in the face of the COVID pandemic. Strong profitability, continued credit expansion and changing expectations during the pandemic are necessary to breed a \"Covid bubble\" in growth stocks. But we want to remind everyone not to extrapolate this kind of growth in an extraordinary period online.</p><p>In the post-epidemic era, the economy stopped shrinking and continued to recover. In a sustained economic environment, the relative strength of growth stocks will weaken. In other words, growth stocks no longer grab market share from value stocks during the phase of economic expansion. Now it seems that this is indeed the case (<b>Figure 4</b>), growth stocks will undoubtedly continue to grow-don't misunderstand our view of growth as a key long-term factor in investment strategy, but the unreasonable growth expectations embedded in their valuations are likely to weaken-as at the moment, the \"COVID bubble\" is shrinking.</p><p><b>Chart 4: Credit expansion pushes the relative strength of growth versus value to unprecedented heights</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e579959ce014072cb03f33e11c73f6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>In the U.S. market, our quantitative analysis validates a similar \"Covid bubble\" — the relative strength of growth stocks versus value stocks is much higher than historically. But now the relative strength of growth versus value is reversing with the rollout of vaccination programs (<b>Figure 5</b>)。</p><p>As we have shown in the chart above the relationship between the Chinese PPI cycle, commodity strength and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield, it is likely that the Chinese PPI will move further higher in the near term. At the same time, the U.S. ten-year Treasury Bond yield will rise in tandem. As a result, the volatility of U.S. bonds is likely to increase in the coming months.</p><p>From<b>Figure 5</b>We can see that the volatility of the bond market is negatively correlated with the relative strength of growth stocks. Growth stocks are essentially long-lived assets, as evidenced by their high valuations. Intuitively, in a stable environment, it is easier for investors to extrapolate growth linearly to infinite forwards. Therefore, rising volatility in the bond market will put pressure on the valuation of long-term assets, such as growth stocks.</p><p><b>Chart 5: Rising bond volatility will compress growth stock valuations, further weakening their relative strength</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f49c4b3a615c54758859cdb75c9c6\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further see that the performance of cyclical sectors has far outperformed the market with the economic recovery (<b>Figure 6</b>)。 In fact, the strong performance of cyclical sectors is likely to have surprised market companies. When we look forward to 2021 (\"<i><b>Looking forward to 2021: Return of the King of Value</b></i>Most people found it hard to believe when they first predicted a strong return of cyclical stocks in 20201120. However, now the rise of cyclical sectors has gradually become the consensus of the market, and their strong performance seems to fully reflect the prospect of economic recovery. So what other investment opportunities does the market have in the next phase of the economic recovery?</p><p><b>Chart 6: Cyclical sectors have outperformed significantly as the economy recovers</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c967cd8cce31128e469b09cd87a8359\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>We can further divide value and growth into cyclical value/growth and non-cyclical value/growth. We can find that although cyclical growth and non-cyclical growth have outperformed, their strength is fading. At the same time, cyclical and non-cyclical values are gradually recovering from their past declines (<b>Figure 7</b>)。 These observations are consistent with the previous<b>Figure 5</b>And<b>Figure 6</b>Consistent.</p><p>That is to say, even if value is returning as a king, its upward momentum can still be further enhanced. However, the strength of growth stocks is waning. As a result, value stocks, both cyclical and non-cyclical, will continue to be the best investment option for the next phase of economic recovery.</p><p><b>Chart 7: Cyclical and non-cyclical value sectors strengthen, cyclical and non-cyclical growth sectors weaken</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf96cf2a78ec0bb120d35d91a9b55cd\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p><b>Geopolitical risks disturb markets</b></p><p>The recent high-level dialogue in Alaska saw sparkling and fiery rhetoric from both sides highlight the delicate relationship between the two economic powerhouses. Geopolitical risks are high, and historically, the RMB has been an effective proxy indicator for such risks. We can see that every depreciation of the yuan is accompanied by increased political or economic risks, such as during the 2008 financial crisis, and during the Sino-US trade war in 2018 (<b>Figure 8</b>)。</p><p>In addition, the bond yield difference between China and the United States is often the leading signal of RMB depreciation, and at present, this spread is narrowing rapidly. While the RMB depreciates, the Shanghai Composite Index tends to weaken simultaneously. Of course, the movements of currencies, bond yields and stock markets are a reflection of weak economic fundamentals amid economic or geopolitical risks. However, the current economic recovery is likely to offset these adverse factors to some extent.</p><p><b>Chart 8: Higher geopolitical risks, narrowing bond yield difference between China and the United States, indicating the pressure of RMB depreciation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f50ecad4f89147f6618cf606b735c7\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p><p>Overall, market returns have reached historically high levels relative to economic growth. Year-over-year changes in the total market cap-to-GDP ratio have historically tended to peak around 7% (<b>Figure 9</b>)。 Historically, when this ratio exceeded 7%, it corresponded to either the bubble period of 2007 and 2015 or the economic recovery phase of 2009. Even after early August 2009, when the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP changed by more than 7% year-on-year, the Shanghai Composite Index stopped hitting new highs. In the months that followed, the Shanghai Stock Exchange traded sideways until it began falling again in 2010 after the People's Bank of China began tightening monetary policy. Therefore, we continue to think that the opportunity for the market lies in value rotation, or changes in the internal structure of the market, rather than the absolute level of the index.</p><p><b>Chart 9: Market Returns, Valuation Changes Have Reached All-Time Highs</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5f71036f448c2198bbd0e347979aec\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, BOCOM International</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1\">洪灝的中国市场...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwMTAwMzcxMg==&mid=2650864815&idx=1&sn=d5c275c2f2fbe6b7f91c4df1a2056ab8&chksm=81140500b6638c16bdcf45d237dc4038bc4a7b1b6fb3e317140f1740a13747d9428cf61ac677&scene=0&xtrack=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176152843","content_text":"概要成长型股票相对于价值型股票的空前强势直到2020年6月开始有所回落。在2020年11月底价值真正开始王者归来之时,市场几乎没有注意到成长型股票相对强势的逆转。这种建立在信贷扩张、线性外推的增长预期和人类贪婪的基础上的成长型股票强势,同时在极低成本的互联网经纪商提供了充分便利的条件下,最终形成了一个成长型股票泡沫。用“新冠泡沫”来形容这个市场情况并不为过。中美市场皆如此。去年6月,当我们发布《2020下半年展望:潜龙欲用》时,我们率先提示了即将出现的价值板块轮动。在我们去年11月发表的《2021年展望:价值王者归来》中,我们推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币,并提出了新兴市场、中国A股和港股是长期机会。当下,成长型泡沫受到不断上升的债券收益率和波动性的威胁,并开始快速收敛。短期内,继续成长型投资实际上是在线性外推新冠疫情期间的增长形势。因此,这样的思考才是真正缺乏想象力的,而想象力则是长期成长型投资所必需的因素。说白了,这种思考方法简直就是悲观主义,因为它预测新冠疫情期间的增长模式将永远持续下去。全球经济正在复苏。由于中国出口已成为之前停摆了的美国经济更为重要的输入,中美经济周期比以往任何时候都更加紧密地交织在一起。大宗商品的强势预示着中国未来几个月上游通胀的压力,很可能会反映在美国债券收益率和波动性的上升。成长型股票是长久期资产,因此对收益率和波动性的上升非常敏感。简单地说,不断上升的收益率压低了增长倍数,而不断加剧的波动性则让人们更急于从成长型股票的显著收益中获利了结。资金应继续轮动到相对安全的价值股。周期性和大宗商品的整体强势正在全面展开。一个令人头疼的问题是,在复苏的下一阶段,钱应该往哪里投?虽然周期性板块和大宗商品的定义是绝对的,但价值板块的定义却是相对的。在当前的这种情况下,我们可以用低估值来暂时代替价值。或者说,现在的“价值投资”类似于“估值投资”。周期性价值和非周期性价值都在修复其弱势,但仍低于长期平均水平。周期性成长和非周期性成长的情况正好相反。在消费、工业、金融和电信等周期性和非周期性价值股里,估值仍将进一步修复。尽管如此,地缘政治风险也在上升。最近的高层对话里,双方锋芒相对,并实施了新的制裁。这些风险将在短期内拖累市场。在中国经济继续修复时,中国的存准率不太可能大幅降低。而中国的信贷扩张受到房地产泡沫的牵制将开始放缓。从历史上看,人民币走软与经济和经济、地缘政治风险大体同步,就像2008年和2018年那样。以市值与GDP之比衡量的估值的变化表明,指数涨幅受限。因此,我们继续认为,机会更多在于价值板块的轮动,而不是整体绝对指数水平。当然,我们也必须强调,中国长期的投资价值,并不是短期里的债券、汇率、大宗商品和股市的价格波动可以表达的。这是我们2021年3月27日的英文版报告《Value Striking Back》的中文翻译版。感谢阅读。价值正在王者归来全球经济复苏复苏已然到来。本轮经济复苏短期内很可能会持续,并且复苏力度很可能在近期超过市场预期,除非新冠疫情反复,加剧经济前景的不确定性。由于市场需求,我们在过去几个月在许多城市里开展了一系列读书会活动,与读者和粉丝们分享了我多年的研究心得。许多参会者都具有专业的投资背景。我们的书《预测: 经济、周期和市场泡沫》在出版后四个月内已破纪录地印刷了十次。在我们的巡回之旅中,上证综指曾略微超过了我们在去年11月展望报告中,预测的交易区间2,900-3,600的上限。当我们在去年6月发布的《2020年下半年展望:潜龙欲用》中,我们首次暗示了即将到来的价值风格轮动。在我们发布的《2021年展望:价值王者归来》报告中,我们向投资者推荐了价值股、大宗商品和比特币,并且论述了新兴市场、中国内地和中国香港市场的长期投资价值。显然,资本市场参与者们都很想知道我们对市场下一步走势的预测。这是我们在读书会中最常被问到的问题,也是我们工作中最具有挑战性的部分。为了展示中国货币政策周期的所处阶段,我们比较了中国的存准率与螺纹钢现货价格的同比变化(图表1)。这两个变量是密切相关的。存准率的同比变化正趋于平稳,表明以存准为代理指标的货币宽松阶段已基本结束。如果中国因对货币宽松和信贷扩张的自我约束导致经济降温,那么存款准备金率将被再次下调。但是,这并不是我们的基准情形。我们认为,存准率在未来一段时间内都不太可能有所变动,这与2013年至2014年,以及2017年至2018年初货币政策周期运行规律类似。在现阶段,降准将反而被市场视为经济疲软的信号,反而会引发市场对周期性资产的抛售。图表 1: 螺纹钢价格和存准率走势显示经济复苏,大宗商品强势处于高位资料来源:彭博,交银国际与此同时,美国经济也在复苏。我们比较了美国消费者预期中的领先成分、美国国债收益率曲线,以及标普500指数的表现。这些重要而可靠的经济领先指标同时显示着经济的强劲复苏 (图表2)。我们的欧洲指标也指向了同样的方向(欧洲图表本文没有展示)。在新冠疫情得到控制的基准情形中,世界上最大的几个经济体在同步复苏,而且复苏的力度将变得越来越强劲。这些观察结果与我们在发表于2020年11月20日的展望报告《2021年展望:价值王者归来》中所做的预测一致。图表 2: 美国消费者预期的领先成分、收益率曲线和标普500均反映经济复苏资料来源:彭博,交银国际中美经济的交错联动中美经济的联系非常紧密,以至于许多主要的经济变量都高度相关。在我们看来,实际上真正需要分析的经济周期只有一个。2018年9月3日,我们发表了一篇开创性的研究论文《中美周期的冲突》,探讨了中美的经济周期,以及这些周期如何相互交织影响市场。我们用量化的方法验证了两国3年左右的经济短周期的运行和影响,并且论证了中国经济周期如何引领美国,以及这些短期周期如何互相嵌套形成中周期和长周期。中美经济周期的联动将持续,关键的经济变量也将继续高度相关。我们认为,鉴于两国对疫情截然不同的管理方式,中国出口已然成为对美国经济更加重要的输入力量。因此,这两个最大的经济体的经济周期现在必然更加紧密地交织在一起。因此,中国的通胀前景将继续对美国国债收益率产生显著的影响;而长期以来一直是全球无风险基准利率的美国国债收益率,也将反过来影响着中国的股市。事实上,我们可以从下面的图表中看到这些经济变量是如何紧密的联系在一起。(图表3)图表3: 中美经济周期紧密交织;所有关键的经济变量高度相关资料来源:彭博,交银国际价值正在王者归来为了了解中国信贷周期的所处阶段,我们将中国的信贷状况与成长股对价值股的相对表现进行比较(图表4)。我们可以看到信贷扩张推动成长股相对价值股走强,反之亦然。我们注意到,成长股的强势始于2019年,当时中国的经济周期正开始从中美贸易战的谷底修复。但在2020年,随着信贷持续扩张和新冠疫情的蔓延,成长股的相对表现达到了前所未有的强势水平。疫情很可能改变了市场对成长股的看法,其中许多成长股是互联网平台公司。毕竟,这些公司面对新冠疫情肆虐时,展现出了良好的盈利韧性。强劲的盈利能力、持续的信贷扩张以及疫情期间不断变化的预期,是在成长股中滋生“新冠泡沫”的必要条件。但我们要提醒大家,不要在线性外推这种在一个非常时期的成长性。后疫情时代,经济停止萎缩、持续复苏。在一个持续增长的经济环境中,成长股的相对强势将趋弱。换句话说,在经济扩张阶段,成长股不再从价值股中抢占市场份额。现在看来,情况确实如此(图表4),成长股毫无疑问会继续成长——不要误解了我们对于成长作为一个投资策略关键长期因子的看法,但它们估值中蕴含的不合理的增长预期很可能会减弱—— 一如当下,“新冠泡沫”正在萎缩。图表 4: 信贷扩张推升成长对价值的相对强势到了一个前所未有的高度资料来源:彭博,交银国际在美国市场,我们的量化分析也验证了一个类似的“新冠泡沫”——成长股对价值股的相对强势程度远远高于历史水平。但是,随着疫苗接种计划的推广,现在成长对价值的相对强势正在逆转(图表5)。正如我们在上面的图表中展示的中国PPI周期、大宗商品强势与美国十年期国债收益率之间的关系,中国PPI在近期很可能会进一步走高。与此同时,美国十年期国债收益率也会同步上升。因此,美国债券的波动性在未来几个月很可能会加剧。从图表5中我们可以看到,债券市场波动率与成长股的相对强势呈负相关。成长股本质上是长久期资产,其高昂的估值也证明了这一点。直观地说,在一个稳定的环境中,投资者更容易将成长性线性地推断无限的远期。因此,债券市场波动率上升,将对长久期资产(如成长股)的估值构成压力。图表 5:债券波动率上升将压缩成长股估值,进一步减弱其相对强势资料来源:彭博,交银国际我们可以进一步看到,周期性板块的表现已随着经济复苏的远远跑赢了市场 (图表6)。事实上,周期性板块的强劲表现很可能已令市场公司惊讶。当我们在2021年展望(《展望2021:价值王者归来》,20201120)中首次预测周期性股票将强势归来时,大多数人都觉得难以置信。但现在周期性板块的崛起已逐渐成为市场共识,并且,它们的强劲表现似乎已经比较充分地反映了经济的复苏前景。那么,在经济复苏的下一阶段,市场还有哪些其他的投资机会呢?图表 6: 随着经济复苏,周期性板块已经大幅跑赢资料来源:彭博,交银国际我们可以进一步将价值和成长分为周期性价值/成长和非周期性价值/成长。我们可以发现,尽管周期性成长和非周期性成长已经跑赢,但是它们的强势正在衰退。与此同时,周期性价值和非周期性价值正在从往日的颓势中逐渐修复(图表7)。这些观察结果与前文的图表5和图表6一致。也就是说,即使价值正在王者归来,但其上涨动能仍可以进一步增强。然而,成长股的强势正在衰减。因此,价值股,无论是周期性的还是非周期性的,都将继续作为下一阶段经济复苏的最佳投资选择。图表7: 周期和非周期价值板块走强,周期和非周期成长板块趋弱资料来源:彭博,交银国际地缘政治风险扰动市场最近在阿拉斯加举行的高层对话中,双方火花四射的激烈言辞凸显了这两大经济强国之间的微妙关系。地缘政治风险很高,从历史上看,人民币一直是此类风险有效的代理指标。我们可以看到,每次人民币贬值都伴随着政治或经济风险的加剧,比如2008年金融危机期间,以及2018年中美贸易战期间(图表8)。此外,中美债券收益率差往往是人民币贬值的先行信号,目前这一利差正在迅速收窄。在人民币贬值的同时,上证综指往往同步走弱。当然,货币、债券收益率和股市的走势是经济或地缘政治风险中羸弱的经济基本面的反映。但是,目前的经济复苏很可能会在一定程度上抵消这些不利的因素的影响。图表 8: 地缘政治风险较高,中美债券收益率差收窄,预示人民币贬值压力资料来源:彭博,交银国际总体而言,市场回报率相对于经济增长已达到历史高位。总市值与GDP比率的同比变化历史上往往在7%左右见顶(图表9)。而历史上当这一比率突破7%时,要么对应着2007年和2015年的泡沫时期,要么是在2009年的经济复苏阶段。即使在2009年8月初之后,总市值与 GDP比率的同比变化超过了7%,上证综指也不再续创新高。在随后的几个月里,上证横盘震荡,直到2010年中国央行开始收紧货币政策后又开始下跌。因此,我们继续认为市场的机会在于价值轮动,或者说是市场内部结构的变化,而不是指数的绝对水平。图表 9:市场回报率、估值变化已达到历史高位资料来源:彭博,交银国际","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358251617,"gmtCreate":1616708861539,"gmtModify":1704797642083,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/358251617","repostId":"1100861784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100861784","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616688028,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100861784?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 00:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"News said that Xiaohongshu hired CFO and considered IPO in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100861784","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行(ipo)打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露,该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官,并考虑最早于今年在美国上","content":"<p>The list of Chinese tech companies going to the open market is getting longer and longer. The latest to lay the groundwork for an initial public offering (ipo) is Xiaohongshu, an Instagram-like social e-commerce platform. The company recently hired a chief financial officer and is considering a U.S. listing as early as this year, according to people familiar with the matter.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>News said that Xiaohongshu hired CFO and considered IPO in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNews said that Xiaohongshu hired CFO and considered IPO in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-26 00:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The list of Chinese tech companies going to the open market is getting longer and longer. The latest to lay the groundwork for an initial public offering (ipo) is Xiaohongshu, an Instagram-like social e-commerce platform. The company recently hired a chief financial officer and is considering a U.S. listing as early as this year, according to people familiar with the matter.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac77203c1b9a3d0f3169b11b3a953a61","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100861784","content_text":"中国科技企业走向公开市场的名单越来越长。最新为首次公开发行(ipo)打下基础的是类似Instagram的社交电子商务平台小红书。据知情人士透露,该公司最近聘请了一名首席财务官,并考虑最早于今年在美国上市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351010273,"gmtCreate":1616545128492,"gmtModify":1704795423596,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351010273","repostId":"2121755434","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353928568,"gmtCreate":1616456941454,"gmtModify":1704794260727,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"okie","listText":"okie","text":"okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353928568","repostId":"2121510889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2121510889","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616456389,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2121510889?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-23 07:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tencent Music Q4 and Full-Year Financial Report Bright, After-Hours Stock Price Once Hit a New High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2121510889","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"盘前,市场对腾讯音乐娱乐集团即将发布的财报普遍感到乐观,助推了腾讯音乐股价的强劲表现,其盘中股价一度上冲至31.12美元,创下上市以来的新高,并报收于30.89美元。在腾讯音乐公布财报后,其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%,并创下31.55美元的历史新高。其中环比净增长为430万,付费率达9%,高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。","content":"<p>March 23rd, after the US stock market closed on March 22nd (Monday),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.US) reported its fourth quarter and full year 2020 earnings results.</p><p>After the announcement of the financial report, its after-hours share price once rose by more than 2.14% and hit an all-time high of $31.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/205ce59be0c5db585c7e736c69dd28fb\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the financial report, the company's revenue in the fourth quarter was RMB 8.34 billion (USD 1.28 billion), a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The market expected RMB 8.334 billion, compared with RMB 7.293 billion in the same period last year. Among them, revenue from online music services increased by 29.0% year-on-year, up from 25.9% in the third quarter of 2020. Revenue from music subscription services was RMB1.58 billion (US$242 million), representing a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. Advertising services recorded over 100% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>Net profit attributable to the company's shareholders in the fourth quarter was RMB1.2 billion (US$183 million), with earnings per ADS of RMB0.71, compared with market expectations of RMB0.68 and RMB0.62 in the same period last year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, online music paying users reached 56 million, up 40.4% year-on-year, with a net increase of 4.3 million quarter-on-quarter, and the payment rate historically broke 9%, up from 8% in the third quarter and 6.2% in the same period of 2019.</p><p>It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the number of long audio albums of the company increased by 370% year-on-year, greatly enriching the long audio content pool; The long audio MAU penetration rate increased to 14.8% from 5.5% in the same period last year, and the average daily usage time of long audio users continued to grow.</p><p>Revenue for the full year 2020 increased by 14.6% year-on-year to RMB29.15 billion (US$4.47 billion), and net profit attributable to the Company's shareholders for the full year 2020 increased by 4.3% year-on-year to RMB4.16 billion (US$637 million).</p><p>Mr. Peng Jiaxin, CEO of Tencent Music, said: \"By investing in multiple formats of music genres, we have further strengthened our content leadership and increased user engagement, which is reflected in the continuous growth of users' total usage time on our platform. Our initial investment in long audio began to pay off, with the penetration rate of long audio in our user base reaching 15% in the fourth quarter of 2020, up from 6% in the same period last year.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent Music Q4 and Full-Year Financial Report Bright, After-Hours Stock Price Once Hit a New High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent Music Q4 and Full-Year Financial Report Bright, After-Hours Stock Price Once Hit a New High\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-23 07:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>March 23rd, after the US stock market closed on March 22nd (Monday),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>(TME.US) reported its fourth quarter and full year 2020 earnings results.</p><p>After the announcement of the financial report, its after-hours share price once rose by more than 2.14% and hit an all-time high of $31.55.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/205ce59be0c5db585c7e736c69dd28fb\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the financial report, the company's revenue in the fourth quarter was RMB 8.34 billion (USD 1.28 billion), a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The market expected RMB 8.334 billion, compared with RMB 7.293 billion in the same period last year. Among them, revenue from online music services increased by 29.0% year-on-year, up from 25.9% in the third quarter of 2020. Revenue from music subscription services was RMB1.58 billion (US$242 million), representing a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. Advertising services recorded over 100% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>Net profit attributable to the company's shareholders in the fourth quarter was RMB1.2 billion (US$183 million), with earnings per ADS of RMB0.71, compared with market expectations of RMB0.68 and RMB0.62 in the same period last year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, online music paying users reached 56 million, up 40.4% year-on-year, with a net increase of 4.3 million quarter-on-quarter, and the payment rate historically broke 9%, up from 8% in the third quarter and 6.2% in the same period of 2019.</p><p>It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2020, the number of long audio albums of the company increased by 370% year-on-year, greatly enriching the long audio content pool; The long audio MAU penetration rate increased to 14.8% from 5.5% in the same period last year, and the average daily usage time of long audio users continued to grow.</p><p>Revenue for the full year 2020 increased by 14.6% year-on-year to RMB29.15 billion (US$4.47 billion), and net profit attributable to the Company's shareholders for the full year 2020 increased by 4.3% year-on-year to RMB4.16 billion (US$637 million).</p><p>Mr. Peng Jiaxin, CEO of Tencent Music, said: \"By investing in multiple formats of music genres, we have further strengthened our content leadership and increased user engagement, which is reflected in the continuous growth of users' total usage time on our platform. Our initial investment in long audio began to pay off, with the penetration rate of long audio in our user base reaching 15% in the fourth quarter of 2020, up from 6% in the same period last year.\"</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c120bbb961941a6910f63352c38f2b","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2121510889","content_text":"3月23日讯,3月22日(周一)美股收盘后,腾讯音乐(TME.US)公布了2020年四季度及全年财报。公布财报后,其盘后股价一度涨超2.14%,并创下31.55美元的历史新高。财报显示,公司四季度营收为人民币83.4亿元(12.8亿美元),同比增长14.3%,市场预期83.34亿元,去年同期72.93亿元。其中,在线音乐服务收入同比增长29.0%,高于2020年第三季度的25.9%。音乐订阅服务收入为人民币15.8亿元(2.42亿美元),同比增长41.9%。广告服务在2020年第四季度录得超过100%的同比增长。四季度归属于公司股东的净利润为人民币12亿元(1.83亿美元),每ADS盈利0.71元,市场预期0.68元,去年同期0.62元。四季度在线音乐付费用户达到5600万,同比增长40.4%,环比净增长为430万,付费率历史性破9%,高于第三季度的8%和2019年同期的6.2%。值得注意的是,2020年第四季度,公司长音频专辑数量同比增长370%,极大丰富了长音频内容池;长音频MAU渗透率从去年同期的5.5%增长至14.8%,长音频用户日均使用时长持续增长。2020年全年收入同比增长14.6%至人民币291.5亿元(44.7亿美元),2020年全年归属于公司股东的净利润同比增长4.3%至人民币41.6亿元(6.37亿美元)。腾讯音乐首席执行官彭迦信先生表示:“通过投资多种格式的音乐类型,我们进一步加强了内容的领先性,提高了用户的参与度,这体现在用户在我们平台上的总使用时间的连续增长。我们最初在长音频方面的投资开始得到回报,2020年第四季度长音频在我们用户群中的渗透率达到15%,高于去年同期的6%。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359117830,"gmtCreate":1616373647320,"gmtModify":1704793146468,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359117830","repostId":"1145429048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350792599,"gmtCreate":1616286506211,"gmtModify":1704792588016,"author":{"id":"3576478109556405","authorId":"3576478109556405","name":"赤耳三皮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdca6957e2e69d036093d984d22f13a3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576478109556405","idStr":"3576478109556405"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okie ","listText":"Okie ","text":"Okie","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350792599","repostId":"1119218309","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}