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Kiwiwilu

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- KiwiwiluKiwiwilu
  ·2021-06-28
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  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- KiwiwiluKiwiwilu
  ·2021-06-28
  ?
  Is there a bubble in U.S. stocks? Dalio and Buffett say this
  标普500指数中目前有约5%的股票处于泡沫之中，这低于1929年、2000年和2007年的泡沫水平。考虑利率因素，整个市场或未被明显高估。过去一年，全球疫情和经济动荡难挡美股节节攀升，IPO和特殊
  Is there a bubble in U.S. stocks? Dalio and Buffett say this
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- KiwiwiluKiwiwilu
  ·2021-06-24
  ????????
  [Movement] Eli Lilly pulled up straight before the market, and now it has risen by more than 7%
  6月24日，礼来盘前直线拉涨，现涨超7%，公司治疗早期阿尔茨海默病的donanemab抗体获得美国食品药品监督管理局突破性治疗地位认证。
  [Movement] Eli Lilly pulled up straight before the market, and now it has risen by more than 7%
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- KiwiwiluKiwiwilu
  ·2021-06-24
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- KiwiwiluKiwiwilu
  ·2021-06-24
  Yes
  Tesla Gains More Than 5%, Model 3, Model Y May Sell Out in the U.S.
  特斯拉的第三季度数据可能会相当令人印象深刻。
  Tesla Gains More Than 5%, Model 3, Model Y May Sell Out in the U.S.
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- KiwiwiluKiwiwilu
  ·2021-06-23
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  Li Xunlei: In the era of differentiation, where are the structural opportunities?
  买自己买不到的东西 2020年名声大噪的不只有“核心资产”，被带火的还有“K型复苏”。通常一场危机过后，经济复苏的走势可分为U型、V型、L型，这些经济学的专业术语讨论往往在小圈子内盛行，疫情之下“
  Li Xunlei: In the era of differentiation, where are the structural opportunities?
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- KiwiwiluKiwiwilu
  ·2021-06-22
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- KiwiwiluKiwiwilu
  ·2021-06-19
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  Gold, can you bargain the bottom now?
  流动性拐点来了 1848年1月，颇有手艺的木匠马歇尔在现今加州首府萨克拉门托北边为他的老板建造锯木厂，在检查锯木厂水道时，看见河床内有一些闪亮的光点，是纯度高达23K的金片。马歇尔发现黄金的消息很快
  Gold, can you bargain the bottom now?
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21:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is there a bubble in U.S. stocks? Dalio and Buffett say this","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153706160","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"标普500指数中目前有约5%的股票处于泡沫之中，这低于1929年、2000年和2007年的泡沫水平。考虑利率因素，整个市场或未被明显高估。\n\n过去一年，全球疫情和经济动荡难挡美股节节攀升，IPO和特殊","content":"<p>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000 and 2007. Considering interest rates, the market as a whole may not be significantly overvalued. In the past year, the global epidemic and economic turmoil have been unable to stop the US stock market from climbing steadily, and the number of IPOs and special purpose acquisitions (SPACs) has also soared. A large amount of money has been smashed into highly uncertain areas, and the whole market seems to be immersed in the carnival of bubbles.</p><p>But Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, and Buffett, the stock god, both said: There are not many bubbles in US stocks at present.</p><p>At this week's RobinHood conference, Dalio said, based on his research on stock market bubbles and economic cycles over the past few years,<b>While it is true to see signs of bubble-like appearances in some parts of the market, overall there is no bubble in the market, at least compared to the late 1990s and 2007.</b></p><p>According to its estimates,<b>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000 and 2007.</b>\"There are a lot of stocks that don't have a bubble,\" Dalio said, and investors have to judge for themselves which stocks are in a bubble and which are not.</p><p>Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Similar views were expressed at Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting. In answer to questions about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>When he waited for the question of \"crazy high valuation\" of stocks, he said:</p><p>I don't think Apple's valuation is crazy, and the valuation needs to be compared to interest rates. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury's four-week short-term U.S. debt auction was $40 billion, but the winning interest rate was 0. Now there is little gain on U.S. bonds, and we are in a near-zero interest rate environment. If interest rates are like this in the long run, then stock prices appear low. Can't find any bonds that can have apples and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The level of profitability of such a company. Dalio and Buffett hinted that some parts of the market were overvalued, but both agreed that the market as a whole was not significantly overvalued if interest rates were taken into account. Rupert Hargreaves, an overseas investment commentator, said that because the Federal Reserve is so lenient about high corporate indebtedness, investors generally began to view debt as part of company assets, which also helped push up valuations.</p><p>In the meantime,<b>Many companies have double-digit returns on capital compared to interest rates around zero,</b>The earnings side is very attractive.</p><p>According to Hargreaves, this leads to the conclusion that investors can still find attractive investment opportunities at current market levels. The S&P 500 may continue to see positive returns as the economy opens up.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is there a bubble in U.S. stocks? Dalio and Buffett say this</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs there a bubble in U.S. stocks? Dalio and Buffett say this\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-27 21:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000 and 2007. Considering interest rates, the market as a whole may not be significantly overvalued. In the past year, the global epidemic and economic turmoil have been unable to stop the US stock market from climbing steadily, and the number of IPOs and special purpose acquisitions (SPACs) has also soared. A large amount of money has been smashed into highly uncertain areas, and the whole market seems to be immersed in the carnival of bubbles.</p><p>But Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, and Buffett, the stock god, both said: There are not many bubbles in US stocks at present.</p><p>At this week's RobinHood conference, Dalio said, based on his research on stock market bubbles and economic cycles over the past few years,<b>While it is true to see signs of bubble-like appearances in some parts of the market, overall there is no bubble in the market, at least compared to the late 1990s and 2007.</b></p><p>According to its estimates,<b>About 5% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently in a bubble, which is lower than the bubble levels of 1929, 2000 and 2007.</b>\"There are a lot of stocks that don't have a bubble,\" Dalio said, and investors have to judge for themselves which stocks are in a bubble and which are not.</p><p>Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Similar views were expressed at Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting. In answer to questions about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>When he waited for the question of \"crazy high valuation\" of stocks, he said:</p><p>I don't think Apple's valuation is crazy, and the valuation needs to be compared to interest rates. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury's four-week short-term U.S. debt auction was $40 billion, but the winning interest rate was 0. Now there is little gain on U.S. bonds, and we are in a near-zero interest rate environment. If interest rates are like this in the long run, then stock prices appear low. Can't find any bonds that can have apples and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>The level of profitability of such a company. Dalio and Buffett hinted that some parts of the market were overvalued, but both agreed that the market as a whole was not significantly overvalued if interest rates were taken into account. Rupert Hargreaves, an overseas investment commentator, said that because the Federal Reserve is so lenient about high corporate indebtedness, investors generally began to view debt as part of company assets, which also helped push up valuations.</p><p>In the meantime,<b>Many companies have double-digit returns on capital compared to interest rates around zero,</b>The earnings side is very attractive.</p><p>According to Hargreaves, this leads to the conclusion that investors can still find attractive investment opportunities at current market levels. The S&P 500 may continue to see positive returns as the economy opens up.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153706160","content_text":"标普500指数中目前有约5%的股票处于泡沫之中，这低于1929年、2000年和2007年的泡沫水平。考虑利率因素，整个市场或未被明显高估。\n\n过去一年，全球疫情和经济动荡难挡美股节节攀升，IPO和特殊目的收购（SPACs）也数量激增，大量资金被砸向高度不确定的领域，整个市场似乎沉浸于泡沫的狂欢。\n但桥水基金创始人达利欧和股神巴菲特双双表示：美股目前并不存在太多泡沫。\n本周的RobinHood大会上，达利欧基于其过去几年对股市泡沫和经济周期的研究表示，尽管确实看到市场某些部分出现了类似泡沫的迹象，但总体而言，市场并不存在泡沫，至少与上世纪90年代末和2007年相比不存在泡沫。\n据其估计，标普500指数中目前有约5%的股票处于泡沫之中，这低于1929年、2000年和2007年的泡沫水平。达利欧称，“有很多股票没有泡沫”，投资者必须自己判断哪些股票处于泡沫之中，哪些还没有。\n巴菲特在今年的伯克希尔哈撒韦年度股东大会上也表达了类似的观点。在回答有关苹果等股票“疯狂高估值”的问题时他表示:\n\n 我不觉得苹果估值疯狂，估值需要和利率做比较。周四美国财政部的四周短期美债拍卖有400亿美元规模，但得标利率为0。现在美国债券没什么收益了，我们在接近零的利率环境，如果长期来看利率是这样的话，那么股票价格就显得低。找不到什么债券能有苹果和谷歌这种公司的盈利水平。\n\n达利欧和巴菲特暗示市场某些部分估值过高，但如果考虑利率因素，都认为整个市场并未被明显高估。海外投资评论人Rupert Hargreaves称，由于美联储对公司高负债如此宽容，投资者普遍开始将债务视为公司资产的一部分，这也有助于推高估值。\n与此同时，与零左右的利率相比，许多公司资本回报率高达两位数，盈利方面极具吸引力。\nHargreaves表示，由此能得出结论，在目前的市场水平下，投资者仍可以找到有吸引力的投资机会。随着经济开放，标普500指数可能会继续看到正回报。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126142437,"gmtCreate":1624548940029,"gmtModify":1703840173122,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????????","listText":"????????","text":"????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126142437","repostId":"1180197914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180197914","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624531757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180197914?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Movement] Eli Lilly pulled up straight before the market, and now it has risen by more than 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180197914","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月24日，礼来盘前直线拉涨，现涨超7%，公司治疗早期阿尔茨海默病的donanemab抗体获得美国食品药品监督管理局突破性治疗地位认证。","content":"<p>On June 24,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Lilly</a>It rose in a straight line before the market, and now it has risen by more than 7%. The company's donanemab antibody for the treatment of early Alzheimer's disease has been certified as a breakthrough therapeutic status by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ba7c76ea125e4b634a49ccd88450f4\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Movement] Eli Lilly pulled up straight before the market, and now it has risen by more than 7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Movement] Eli Lilly pulled up straight before the market, and now it has risen by more than 7%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-24 18:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 24,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Lilly</a>It rose in a straight line before the market, and now it has risen by more than 7%. The company's donanemab antibody for the treatment of early Alzheimer's disease has been certified as a breakthrough therapeutic status by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98ba7c76ea125e4b634a49ccd88450f4\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"LLY":"礼来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180197914","content_text":"6月24日，礼来盘前直线拉涨，现涨超7%，公司治疗早期阿尔茨海默病的donanemab抗体获得美国食品药品监督管理局突破性治疗地位认证。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LLY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126148979,"gmtCreate":1624548841791,"gmtModify":1703840168728,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126148979","repostId":"2145824046","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126157732,"gmtCreate":1624548689026,"gmtModify":1703840163029,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes&nbsp;","listText":"Yes&nbsp;","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126157732","repostId":"1173297432","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173297432","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624546848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173297432?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 23:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla Gains More Than 5%, Model 3, Model Y May Sell Out in the U.S.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173297432","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"特斯拉的第三季度数据可能会相当令人印象深刻。","content":"<p>Market news, the current wait times for deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y in the U.S. partially hint at<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Demand in the U.S. remains so strong that it could sell out in the third quarter. The estimated delivery date for both models is not until the third quarter of 2021. The Model Y Long Range Dual Motor AWD has an estimated delivery date of September 2021, and the Model 3 Standard Range and Long Range Dual Motor AWD have an estimated delivery date of 11 weeks.</p><p>With the Model S, and even the Model X entering the fray in the third quarter, Tesla's Q3 numbers could be quite impressive. Considering both flagships are high-margin models, Tesla's third-quarter financials could be boosted by the new Model S (and perhaps the new Model X).</p><p>Also according to Electrek data: Tesla models accounted for more than 54% of U.S. EV sales as of May 2021. Additionally, U.S. EV sales reached 53,779 units in May, up 19.2% from April 2021.</p><p>As of press time, Tesla rose by more than 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f87da9e5318350fee8df4e0885208cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Gains More Than 5%, Model 3, Model Y May Sell Out in the U.S.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Gains More Than 5%, Model 3, Model Y May Sell Out in the U.S.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-24 23:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Market news, the current wait times for deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y in the U.S. partially hint at<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Demand in the U.S. remains so strong that it could sell out in the third quarter. The estimated delivery date for both models is not until the third quarter of 2021. The Model Y Long Range Dual Motor AWD has an estimated delivery date of September 2021, and the Model 3 Standard Range and Long Range Dual Motor AWD have an estimated delivery date of 11 weeks.</p><p>With the Model S, and even the Model X entering the fray in the third quarter, Tesla's Q3 numbers could be quite impressive. Considering both flagships are high-margin models, Tesla's third-quarter financials could be boosted by the new Model S (and perhaps the new Model X).</p><p>Also according to Electrek data: Tesla models accounted for more than 54% of U.S. EV sales as of May 2021. Additionally, U.S. EV sales reached 53,779 units in May, up 19.2% from April 2021.</p><p>As of press time, Tesla rose by more than 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f87da9e5318350fee8df4e0885208cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e0d9f23e003547a93295253f05b6a55","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173297432","content_text":"市场消息，Model 3和Model Y目前在美国的交付等待时间部分暗示了特斯拉在美国的需求仍非常强劲，以至于可能会在第三季度销售一空。这两款车型的预计交付日期都要到2021年第三季度。Model Y长续航双电机全轮驱动版(Long Range Dual Motor AWD)预计交付日期为2021年9月，Model 3标准续航版和长续航双电机全轮驱动版预计交付日期为11周。\n随着Model S，甚至Model X在第三季度加入竞争，特斯拉的第三季度数据可能会相当令人印象深刻。考虑到这两款旗舰车都是高利润车型，特斯拉第三季度的财务状况可能会因为新款Model S(或许还有新款Model X)而得到提振。\n另据Electrek数据：截至2021年5月，特斯拉车型占美国电动汽车销量的54%以上。 此外，5月份美国电动汽车销量达到53779辆，比2021年4月增长了19.2%。\n截至发稿，特斯拉涨超5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121072816,"gmtCreate":1624446843735,"gmtModify":1703836934246,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121072816","repostId":"1134186261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134186261","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1624427164,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134186261?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 13:46","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Li Xunlei: In the era of differentiation, where are the structural opportunities?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134186261","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"买自己买不到的东西\n\n2020年名声大噪的不只有“核心资产”，被带火的还有“K型复苏”。\n通常一场危机过后，经济复苏的走势可分为U型、V型、L型，这些经济学的专业术语讨论往往在小圈子内盛行，疫情之下“","content":"<p>Buy things you can't buy. In 2020, it's not only \"core assets\" that will become famous, but also \"K-shaped recovery\" that will be popular.</p><p>Usually after a crisis, the trend of economic recovery can be divided into U-shaped, V-shaped, and L-shaped. These economic terminology discussions are often prevalent in small circles, but the \"K-shaped recovery\" under the epidemic unexpectedly went out of the circle.</p><p>Compared with the cold explanation at the academic level, this time the public really felt the division between the upward and downward forces. The rich have lined up in luxury stores, housing prices in first-tier cities have repeatedly hit record highs, while the bottom is faced with wages that cannot outperform inflation, and the year-on-year increase in national rents even turned negative.</p><p>The truth behind the \"K-shaped recovery\" is actually \"differentiation\".</p><p>In an era characterized by stock economy, \"differentiation\" is inevitable. When the environment of the times has quietly changed, the opportunity is not waiting for it to arrive. Only those who adjust their attack direction along with the evolution of development ideas can really seize the opportunity.</p><p>Where are the investment opportunities in the era of differentiation? In response to this problem, we are fortunate to work with<b>Li, Chief Economist of Zhongtai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a></b>Start a conversation. The investment logic in the era of differentiation is vividly refined into Li Xunlei's new book<b>\"The Power of Trends\"</b>, the book is based on a top-down deductive method, from macro policy to micro investment, to foresee various market trends.</p><p><b>As early as 2006, Li Xunlei proposed \"buying what you can't afford\".</b>Under the background at that time, with the rapid economic growth and the substantial increase in the scale of the manufacturing industry, the era of shortage economy has passed, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Except for durable consumer goods such as color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, etc., there are almost no assets allocated at home, and the number of tradable stocks in the country is only more than 3 trillion yuan in market value.</p><p><b>That is, there is already a surplus of goods, but there is still a shortage of assets. This means that people will snap up assets in the future, just as they snapped up durable consumer goods a decade ago.</b>People who understand the leverage of opportunities don't just explain it with \"good luck\", but there is actually a solid macro logic support behind it.</p><p>Among many macroeconomic researchers, some views are either too esoteric and obscure, or too superficial and lack logical support. For decades, Li Xunlei is undoubtedly one of the few people who can really explain profound things in simple terms. The phrase \"buy what you can't afford\", behind the seemingly simple view, lies profound insights into the macro economy.</p><p>Nowadays, China's economy has evolved from shortage to commodity surplus, capital surplus, and currency surplus. Under the background of the \"three major surplus\", Li Xunlei<b>In 2018, I began to propose to \"buy things that I can't buy\"</b>。 So what is \"something that can't be bought\"? How to invest in \"things that can't be bought\"? How to find suitable investment opportunities in the era of differentiation? We tried to find some answers in this interview.</p><p>The following is the text of the interview.</p><p><b>01 Where are the investment opportunities in the era of differentiation?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>: Regarding the theme of \"Trend Investment in the Era of Differentiation\", \"Stock Economy Era\" and \"Differentiation\" are closely related. How do you make the judgment on the arrival of \"Stock Economy Era\"?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: To be precise, what I am referring to is not the \"era of stock economy\", but the \"era dominated by stock economy\". There is a difference between the two.<b>China's GDP growth rate is expected to maintain a medium-speed growth of about 5%, while zero growth like Japan's is the real stock economy, so it is only said that China has the characteristics of stock economy.</b></p><p>The emergence of these characteristics has made many people unaccustomed to it. For example, \"lying flat\" is actually a feature of the stock economy. They feel that it is useless to work hard for a long time, and it is easy to fail to start a business. There will be a phenomenon of 28-28 differentiation.</p><p>In the past, Chinese enterprises' investment was very vigorous, and private investment increased by about 30% before 2013. Now, the growth rate of private investment is getting lower and lower, and less investment means fewer opportunities. The investment of private enterprises is characterized by pro-cyclicality. When the cycle goes down, it shrinks, and when the cycle rises, it expands.</p><p>Therefore, in 2017, I put forward the concept of \"stock economy\" at a seminar.<b>At present, China has entered a stage dominated by the stock economy. This stage is characterized by the constant strength of the strong, the survival of the fittest, and the trade-off of one. This is the so-called \"differentiation\".</b>In the past, the \"incremental economy\" was characterized by \"chickens and dogs ascend to heaven\" and \"what is small is beautiful\". In the past, we used to say \"diaosi counterattack\". Although this word is indecent, it reflects that it is an era with more opportunities.</p><p><b>reporter</b>: Under the background of differentiation, what opportunities do you think ordinary people have?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: There are still opportunities, mainly structural opportunities. From the perspective of historical evolution, China entered the early 21st century<b>Commodity surplus</b>At that time, assets were still relatively scarce, so in 2006, I proposed to buy something I couldn't afford, that is, investment plus leverage. However, when everyone increased the proportion of asset allocation, more than ten years later, the following<b>Surplus of total assets</b>The age of.</p><p>In the era of surplus commodities and surplus assets, in order to stimulate the economy, the government authorities will definitely overissue currency. The result of overissuing currency is of course<b>Monetary aggregate surplus</b>, so right now is<b>An era of triple excess superposition</b>。</p><p><b>However, the so-called surplus refers to \"total surplus\" and \"structural shortage\" still exists. Therefore, for ordinary individuals, the opportunities that can be grasped are called \"structural opportunities\" under the background of fewer total opportunities, because this kind of opportunity exists for a long time.</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>: You emphasized before that \"investment opportunities will mainly be on the supply side in the future\". What is the main logic behind it?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: The main logic is that there is a shortage of effective demand in China at present, and there is a structural shortage in the case of surplus currency. Therefore, the supply-side investment opportunities I am talking about are actually structural opportunities. From the investment point of view, as long as \"structural shortage\" areas are found, they are opportunities for profit.</p><p><b>In the future, more importantly, what you are supplying.</b>For example, the supply of rice, its total demand is limited; Or when the price of pigs rises, everyone thinks that the income from raising pigs is good, so they raise pigs one after another, the supply increases, and the price of pigs falls. Moreover, in the long run, with the process of China's consumption upgrading, pork consumption is expected to decline. On the one hand, this is due to the increase in income and consumption upgrading, and the consumption of high-priced meat such as beef will increase; On the other hand, China accounts for 18% of the world's population, but it consumes 50% of the world's pork, which is expected to decline in the future.</p><p>For example, Dutch lithography is not sold to China, which is a shortage of \"core technology\"; For example, some high-end commodities of national brands are also in short supply, that is, the demand continues to rise and they are not sensitive to prices, but the supply side is still insufficient.</p><p><b>reporter</b>: In the current period of domestic economic slowdown and shifting gears, in which industries do you think structural investment opportunities will emerge?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: In fact, in every industry, as long as the so-called \"high-end demand\" and \"effective demand\" can be found, there are opportunities. Even the steel industry is not completely without opportunities, such as \"special steel\". However, as far as \"crude steel\" is concerned, there is indeed excess production capacity and total volume.</p><p>In addition, although we say that the domestic \"effective demand\" is insufficient, the demand in some areas is still sufficient. For example, the biomedical industry will have a relatively high growth potential in the future, especially some drugs they have developed to treat cardiovascular diseases or fight cancer. In the future, as people's wealth increases, they all hope that their life span can be extended, because no matter how much money they earn, it is difficult to buy an elixir to prolong life. Under the same logic, because we all believe that \"youth\" is priceless, when many people want to retain their youth, the demand of the medical beauty industry will emerge.</p><p><b>02 How to look at real estate, gold, and Bitcoin?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>: After the data of the seventh census came out, you think the two trends of population aging and regional structural imbalance need to be vigilant. Under these two trends, how do you view the future real estate market?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: There is a surplus in the total amount, coupled with the aging population, the demand for real estate will also decline. Because after aging, people are more willing to invest money in places with short maturities, such as fixed income, equity assets, or places with good liquidity, and are reluctant to invest in real estate. In addition, the aging of the population will also lead to a decrease in our willingness to invest and an increase in our willingness to consume.</p><p>But structural opportunities still exist,<b>Judging from the seventh census, the population is still concentrated in first-tier cities and second-tier cities. This trend has not changed. In the future, the population of these cities will still have a net inflow, so it is still possible to lay out real estate in these big cities, but the problem is that the current valuation is too high, which is a characteristic of China's housing prices.</b></p><p>This is related to Chinese cultural factors. Chinese people like to invest, manage money and buy property, while westerners don't have that great demand in this respect, which is closely related to our cultural background in East Asia.</p><p><b>reporter</b>: Do you think the recent inflation trend has imposed great constraints on the Fed's monetary policy? Is inflation a short-term dilemma or a long-term dilemma? What do you think of gold this year?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: The main goal of the Fed is employment rather than inflation. If non-farm payrolls fail to meet expectations, then the Fed's monetary tightening time will still be delayed, but I think the \"taper\" action of the Fed will be at the end of the third quarter or the fourth quarter It is possible to do it.</p><p>As far as I am concerned, the current inflation is likely to be a short-to medium-term phenomenon, lasting for more than one year. This kind of inflation may be a \"supplementary increase\" for the past deflation due to currency excess issuance, and it is also an emotional catharsis. Judging from the water level of the U.S. financial market after the Federal Reserve releases water, it should not be high, because the U.S. ability to create money through commercial banks is relatively weak; On the contrary, Chinese commercial banks have a strong motivation to create money, which is why the People's Bank of China doesn't expand its balance sheet much, so it doesn't need to release as much liquidity as the Federal Reserve does.</p><p>As for gold, the price of gold depends on the level of real interest rate in the short term. If the real interest rate goes down, it will be beneficial to gold. In the long run, it depends on the degree of excessive currency issuance. Gold rose a lot in 2018-20. It is normal to adjust this year, but the future prospects are still promising.</p><p><b>reporter</b>: In addition to gold, Bitcoin also performed amazingly under last year's \"water release\" market. What do you think of Bitcoin's subsequent investment value?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei: Bitcoin is relatively volatile, which makes it difficult to become a currency</b>Therefore, it cannot be used in transaction settlement. But after all, it can stand out from so many virtual currencies, and its position is there.<b>In the future, it may be a limited range of investment varieties, more like an asset.</b></p><p><b>03Why look at the macro?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>: Many individual investors and some institutional investors don't pay much attention to macro. What do you think is the significance of macro for investment?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: Macro research is a typical top-down research. Macro research allows you to judge the impact of the general environment on yourself through fiscal policy and monetary policy. The reason why many institutions are not worthy of macro researchers is mainly because macro services are very open, reports are easy to obtain, and people's demand for macro researchers is relatively reduced.</p><p>But I don't think the macro can simply stay at some comments on CPI and PPI, or comment on the amount of investment in real estate development, etc. I think this macro pattern is too small. The macro-research in my mind should not only have historical depth, but also have practical application and operability in reality.</p><p>But if the macro is not in place, it is making noise for the market, always just interpreting policies and making technical analysis of high-frequency data. I prefer to see macro research guide policies from the results, rather than following them.<b>I also often say that when we look at the macro, we should use a telescope, not a microscope. The microscope sees all the details, but the macro is a very grand and top-down research model, and it pays more attention to \"top-level architectural design\".</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>: In the chain of \"macro-meso-micro\", how to understand the position and role of macro?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: I think we must first point out the general direction. We often pay attention to whether the Fed's interest rate goes up or down, which will affect the direction of inflation expectations. But from a longer-term perspective, the growth rate of GDP continues to decline. This is where my macro analysis is different,<b>Focus on the big cycle of social development</b>。</p><p>For another example, when I was studying history, I found that all previous dynasty changes in China were more or less related to peasant uprisings. The first reason is that China is a big agricultural country. When the land rent of tenant farmers' cultivated land increases, farmers' income will decrease, resulting in the gradual differentiation of social income. Long-term peace also means that the rules of the game will remain unchanged, and differentiation will only intensify. Differentiation is actually structural distortion, which will eventually lead to economic slowdown to negative growth, and eventually trigger war.</p><p>After that, the top-down research will explore various industries, and then explore how individual choices are affected by these macro and meso factors.</p><p><b>reporter</b>: Finally, what is your judgment on fiscal policy and monetary policy in the future?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: I think the finance will still be tighter. Why? On the one hand, the macro leverage ratio is already too high, so government departments need to reduce leverage, because we now want to maintain long-term economic stability, and fiscal expenditure must flow slowly.</p><p>Then, in the next few years, under the downward trend of economic growth, monetary policy needs to be relatively loose, especially when fiscal policy is not too active, monetary policy cannot be too tight. If the finance is tight and the currency is also tight, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of steady growth. Therefore, when the finance is \"tight\", the currency can be moderately loosened.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Xunlei: In the era of differentiation, where are the structural opportunities?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Xunlei: In the era of differentiation, where are the structural opportunities?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 13:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Buy things you can't buy. In 2020, it's not only \"core assets\" that will become famous, but also \"K-shaped recovery\" that will be popular.</p><p>Usually after a crisis, the trend of economic recovery can be divided into U-shaped, V-shaped, and L-shaped. These economic terminology discussions are often prevalent in small circles, but the \"K-shaped recovery\" under the epidemic unexpectedly went out of the circle.</p><p>Compared with the cold explanation at the academic level, this time the public really felt the division between the upward and downward forces. The rich have lined up in luxury stores, housing prices in first-tier cities have repeatedly hit record highs, while the bottom is faced with wages that cannot outperform inflation, and the year-on-year increase in national rents even turned negative.</p><p>The truth behind the \"K-shaped recovery\" is actually \"differentiation\".</p><p>In an era characterized by stock economy, \"differentiation\" is inevitable. When the environment of the times has quietly changed, the opportunity is not waiting for it to arrive. Only those who adjust their attack direction along with the evolution of development ideas can really seize the opportunity.</p><p>Where are the investment opportunities in the era of differentiation? In response to this problem, we are fortunate to work with<b>Li, Chief Economist of Zhongtai<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a></b>Start a conversation. The investment logic in the era of differentiation is vividly refined into Li Xunlei's new book<b>\"The Power of Trends\"</b>, the book is based on a top-down deductive method, from macro policy to micro investment, to foresee various market trends.</p><p><b>As early as 2006, Li Xunlei proposed \"buying what you can't afford\".</b>Under the background at that time, with the rapid economic growth and the substantial increase in the scale of the manufacturing industry, the era of shortage economy has passed, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Common people</a>Except for durable consumer goods such as color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, etc., there are almost no assets allocated at home, and the number of tradable stocks in the country is only more than 3 trillion yuan in market value.</p><p><b>That is, there is already a surplus of goods, but there is still a shortage of assets. This means that people will snap up assets in the future, just as they snapped up durable consumer goods a decade ago.</b>People who understand the leverage of opportunities don't just explain it with \"good luck\", but there is actually a solid macro logic support behind it.</p><p>Among many macroeconomic researchers, some views are either too esoteric and obscure, or too superficial and lack logical support. For decades, Li Xunlei is undoubtedly one of the few people who can really explain profound things in simple terms. The phrase \"buy what you can't afford\", behind the seemingly simple view, lies profound insights into the macro economy.</p><p>Nowadays, China's economy has evolved from shortage to commodity surplus, capital surplus, and currency surplus. Under the background of the \"three major surplus\", Li Xunlei<b>In 2018, I began to propose to \"buy things that I can't buy\"</b>。 So what is \"something that can't be bought\"? How to invest in \"things that can't be bought\"? How to find suitable investment opportunities in the era of differentiation? We tried to find some answers in this interview.</p><p>The following is the text of the interview.</p><p><b>01 Where are the investment opportunities in the era of differentiation?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>: Regarding the theme of \"Trend Investment in the Era of Differentiation\", \"Stock Economy Era\" and \"Differentiation\" are closely related. How do you make the judgment on the arrival of \"Stock Economy Era\"?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: To be precise, what I am referring to is not the \"era of stock economy\", but the \"era dominated by stock economy\". There is a difference between the two.<b>China's GDP growth rate is expected to maintain a medium-speed growth of about 5%, while zero growth like Japan's is the real stock economy, so it is only said that China has the characteristics of stock economy.</b></p><p>The emergence of these characteristics has made many people unaccustomed to it. For example, \"lying flat\" is actually a feature of the stock economy. They feel that it is useless to work hard for a long time, and it is easy to fail to start a business. There will be a phenomenon of 28-28 differentiation.</p><p>In the past, Chinese enterprises' investment was very vigorous, and private investment increased by about 30% before 2013. Now, the growth rate of private investment is getting lower and lower, and less investment means fewer opportunities. The investment of private enterprises is characterized by pro-cyclicality. When the cycle goes down, it shrinks, and when the cycle rises, it expands.</p><p>Therefore, in 2017, I put forward the concept of \"stock economy\" at a seminar.<b>At present, China has entered a stage dominated by the stock economy. This stage is characterized by the constant strength of the strong, the survival of the fittest, and the trade-off of one. This is the so-called \"differentiation\".</b>In the past, the \"incremental economy\" was characterized by \"chickens and dogs ascend to heaven\" and \"what is small is beautiful\". In the past, we used to say \"diaosi counterattack\". Although this word is indecent, it reflects that it is an era with more opportunities.</p><p><b>reporter</b>: Under the background of differentiation, what opportunities do you think ordinary people have?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: There are still opportunities, mainly structural opportunities. From the perspective of historical evolution, China entered the early 21st century<b>Commodity surplus</b>At that time, assets were still relatively scarce, so in 2006, I proposed to buy something I couldn't afford, that is, investment plus leverage. However, when everyone increased the proportion of asset allocation, more than ten years later, the following<b>Surplus of total assets</b>The age of.</p><p>In the era of surplus commodities and surplus assets, in order to stimulate the economy, the government authorities will definitely overissue currency. The result of overissuing currency is of course<b>Monetary aggregate surplus</b>, so right now is<b>An era of triple excess superposition</b>。</p><p><b>However, the so-called surplus refers to \"total surplus\" and \"structural shortage\" still exists. Therefore, for ordinary individuals, the opportunities that can be grasped are called \"structural opportunities\" under the background of fewer total opportunities, because this kind of opportunity exists for a long time.</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>: You emphasized before that \"investment opportunities will mainly be on the supply side in the future\". What is the main logic behind it?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: The main logic is that there is a shortage of effective demand in China at present, and there is a structural shortage in the case of surplus currency. Therefore, the supply-side investment opportunities I am talking about are actually structural opportunities. From the investment point of view, as long as \"structural shortage\" areas are found, they are opportunities for profit.</p><p><b>In the future, more importantly, what you are supplying.</b>For example, the supply of rice, its total demand is limited; Or when the price of pigs rises, everyone thinks that the income from raising pigs is good, so they raise pigs one after another, the supply increases, and the price of pigs falls. Moreover, in the long run, with the process of China's consumption upgrading, pork consumption is expected to decline. On the one hand, this is due to the increase in income and consumption upgrading, and the consumption of high-priced meat such as beef will increase; On the other hand, China accounts for 18% of the world's population, but it consumes 50% of the world's pork, which is expected to decline in the future.</p><p>For example, Dutch lithography is not sold to China, which is a shortage of \"core technology\"; For example, some high-end commodities of national brands are also in short supply, that is, the demand continues to rise and they are not sensitive to prices, but the supply side is still insufficient.</p><p><b>reporter</b>: In the current period of domestic economic slowdown and shifting gears, in which industries do you think structural investment opportunities will emerge?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: In fact, in every industry, as long as the so-called \"high-end demand\" and \"effective demand\" can be found, there are opportunities. Even the steel industry is not completely without opportunities, such as \"special steel\". However, as far as \"crude steel\" is concerned, there is indeed excess production capacity and total volume.</p><p>In addition, although we say that the domestic \"effective demand\" is insufficient, the demand in some areas is still sufficient. For example, the biomedical industry will have a relatively high growth potential in the future, especially some drugs they have developed to treat cardiovascular diseases or fight cancer. In the future, as people's wealth increases, they all hope that their life span can be extended, because no matter how much money they earn, it is difficult to buy an elixir to prolong life. Under the same logic, because we all believe that \"youth\" is priceless, when many people want to retain their youth, the demand of the medical beauty industry will emerge.</p><p><b>02 How to look at real estate, gold, and Bitcoin?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>: After the data of the seventh census came out, you think the two trends of population aging and regional structural imbalance need to be vigilant. Under these two trends, how do you view the future real estate market?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: There is a surplus in the total amount, coupled with the aging population, the demand for real estate will also decline. Because after aging, people are more willing to invest money in places with short maturities, such as fixed income, equity assets, or places with good liquidity, and are reluctant to invest in real estate. In addition, the aging of the population will also lead to a decrease in our willingness to invest and an increase in our willingness to consume.</p><p>But structural opportunities still exist,<b>Judging from the seventh census, the population is still concentrated in first-tier cities and second-tier cities. This trend has not changed. In the future, the population of these cities will still have a net inflow, so it is still possible to lay out real estate in these big cities, but the problem is that the current valuation is too high, which is a characteristic of China's housing prices.</b></p><p>This is related to Chinese cultural factors. Chinese people like to invest, manage money and buy property, while westerners don't have that great demand in this respect, which is closely related to our cultural background in East Asia.</p><p><b>reporter</b>: Do you think the recent inflation trend has imposed great constraints on the Fed's monetary policy? Is inflation a short-term dilemma or a long-term dilemma? What do you think of gold this year?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: The main goal of the Fed is employment rather than inflation. If non-farm payrolls fail to meet expectations, then the Fed's monetary tightening time will still be delayed, but I think the \"taper\" action of the Fed will be at the end of the third quarter or the fourth quarter It is possible to do it.</p><p>As far as I am concerned, the current inflation is likely to be a short-to medium-term phenomenon, lasting for more than one year. This kind of inflation may be a \"supplementary increase\" for the past deflation due to currency excess issuance, and it is also an emotional catharsis. Judging from the water level of the U.S. financial market after the Federal Reserve releases water, it should not be high, because the U.S. ability to create money through commercial banks is relatively weak; On the contrary, Chinese commercial banks have a strong motivation to create money, which is why the People's Bank of China doesn't expand its balance sheet much, so it doesn't need to release as much liquidity as the Federal Reserve does.</p><p>As for gold, the price of gold depends on the level of real interest rate in the short term. If the real interest rate goes down, it will be beneficial to gold. In the long run, it depends on the degree of excessive currency issuance. Gold rose a lot in 2018-20. It is normal to adjust this year, but the future prospects are still promising.</p><p><b>reporter</b>: In addition to gold, Bitcoin also performed amazingly under last year's \"water release\" market. What do you think of Bitcoin's subsequent investment value?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei: Bitcoin is relatively volatile, which makes it difficult to become a currency</b>Therefore, it cannot be used in transaction settlement. But after all, it can stand out from so many virtual currencies, and its position is there.<b>In the future, it may be a limited range of investment varieties, more like an asset.</b></p><p><b>03Why look at the macro?</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>: Many individual investors and some institutional investors don't pay much attention to macro. What do you think is the significance of macro for investment?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: Macro research is a typical top-down research. Macro research allows you to judge the impact of the general environment on yourself through fiscal policy and monetary policy. The reason why many institutions are not worthy of macro researchers is mainly because macro services are very open, reports are easy to obtain, and people's demand for macro researchers is relatively reduced.</p><p>But I don't think the macro can simply stay at some comments on CPI and PPI, or comment on the amount of investment in real estate development, etc. I think this macro pattern is too small. The macro-research in my mind should not only have historical depth, but also have practical application and operability in reality.</p><p>But if the macro is not in place, it is making noise for the market, always just interpreting policies and making technical analysis of high-frequency data. I prefer to see macro research guide policies from the results, rather than following them.<b>I also often say that when we look at the macro, we should use a telescope, not a microscope. The microscope sees all the details, but the macro is a very grand and top-down research model, and it pays more attention to \"top-level architectural design\".</b></p><p><b>reporter</b>: In the chain of \"macro-meso-micro\", how to understand the position and role of macro?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: I think we must first point out the general direction. We often pay attention to whether the Fed's interest rate goes up or down, which will affect the direction of inflation expectations. But from a longer-term perspective, the growth rate of GDP continues to decline. This is where my macro analysis is different,<b>Focus on the big cycle of social development</b>。</p><p>For another example, when I was studying history, I found that all previous dynasty changes in China were more or less related to peasant uprisings. The first reason is that China is a big agricultural country. When the land rent of tenant farmers' cultivated land increases, farmers' income will decrease, resulting in the gradual differentiation of social income. Long-term peace also means that the rules of the game will remain unchanged, and differentiation will only intensify. Differentiation is actually structural distortion, which will eventually lead to economic slowdown to negative growth, and eventually trigger war.</p><p>After that, the top-down research will explore various industries, and then explore how individual choices are affected by these macro and meso factors.</p><p><b>reporter</b>: Finally, what is your judgment on fiscal policy and monetary policy in the future?</p><p><b>Li Xunlei</b>: I think the finance will still be tighter. Why? On the one hand, the macro leverage ratio is already too high, so government departments need to reduce leverage, because we now want to maintain long-term economic stability, and fiscal expenditure must flow slowly.</p><p>Then, in the next few years, under the downward trend of economic growth, monetary policy needs to be relatively loose, especially when fiscal policy is not too active, monetary policy cannot be too tight. If the finance is tight and the currency is also tight, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of steady growth. Therefore, when the finance is \"tight\", the currency can be moderately loosened.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134186261","content_text":"买自己买不到的东西\n\n2020年名声大噪的不只有“核心资产”，被带火的还有“K型复苏”。\n通常一场危机过后，经济复苏的走势可分为U型、V型、L型，这些经济学的专业术语讨论往往在小圈子内盛行，疫情之下“K型复苏”却意外了出圈。\n比起学术层面冰冷的解释，这一回大众切实感受到了向上与向下的两股力量的分野。富人在奢侈品店排起长队，一线城市房价屡创新高，而底层面临着工资跑不赢通胀，全国房租同比涨幅甚至一度转负。\n“K型复苏”背后的真相，其实就是“分化”。\n在一个以存量经济为特征的时代里，“分化”已是不可避免。当身处时代环境已经悄然发生改变，机会并不是坐等到来，顺着发展思路演进而调整自己出击方向的人，才能真正握住机会。\n分化时代下的投资机会到底在哪里？针对此问题，我们有幸与中泰首席经济学家李迅雷展开一场对话。分化时代里的投资逻辑，在李迅雷的新书中被形象地提炼为“趋势的力量”，书中基于自上而下的演绎方法，从宏观政策至微观投资，来预见市场的各种趋势。\n早在2006年，李迅雷就提出了“买自己买不起的东西”。在当时的背景下，经济的高速增长，制造业的规模大幅增加，短缺经济时代已经过去，但老百姓家里配置的除了彩电、冰箱、洗衣机等耐用消费品之外，几乎没有什么资产，全国可流通的股票数量也就3万多亿元市值。\n也就是说，商品已经过剩，但资产仍然短缺。这意味着未来人们会抢购资产，像十年前抢购耐用消费品一样。看懂机会上杠杆的人，并不是一句“运气好”就解释过去了，背后其实有着坚实的宏观逻辑支撑。\n在诸多宏观经济研究人士中，一些观点不是过于深奥晦涩，就是过分浅显缺乏逻辑支撑。几十年来笔耕不辍，李迅雷无疑是那少部分能真正做到深入浅出的人。一句“买自己买不起的东西”，看似简单的观点背后囊括着对宏观经济深刻的洞见。\n如今，中国经济从短缺演化到如今商品过剩、资本过剩、货币过剩，在“三大过剩”的背景下，李迅雷在2018年开始提出要“买自己买不到的东西”。那什么是“买不到的东西”？怎么投资“买不到的东西”？在分化时代里如何找到合适的投资机会？我们试图在本次访谈中找到一些答案。\n以下是访谈的正文内容。\n01 分化时代下的投资机会在哪里？\n记者：对于“分化时代下的趋势投资”主题，“存量经济时代”与“分化”二者紧密关联，请问您是如何做出“存量经济时代”到来的判断？\n李迅雷：准确讲，我所指的并不是“存量经济时代”，而是“存量经济主导的时代”，两者是有差别的。中国GDP增速预计还会保持5%左右的中速增长，而像日本这样的零增长才是真正的存量经济，所以目前只是说中国出现了存量经济的特征。\n而这些特征的出现已经使得很多人不习惯，比如“躺平”其实就是一个存量经济特征，觉得自己辛苦半天也没用，创业也容易失败，这里面就会呈现出一种二八分化现象。\n过去，中国的企业投资都很起劲，民间投资在2013年前都有30%左右的增长，现在民营投资增速越来越低，投资少就意味着机会也少。而民营企业投资的特点又是顺周期，周期向下时它萎缩，周期上升时它才扩张。\n因此，2017年我在一次讨论会上，就提出“存量经济”的概念，中国目前已步入到存量经济主导的阶段，这个阶段的特色就是强者恒强、优胜劣汰、此消彼长，这就是所谓的“分化”。过去的“增量经济”下的特征是“鸡犬升天”，“小的就是美的”，过去我们也常说“屌丝逆袭”，虽然这个词汇不雅，但却反映出那是一个机会比较多的时代。\n记者：分化背景下，您觉得普通人有什么机会？\n李迅雷：机会还是有的，主要是结构性机会。从历史演进来看，中国21世纪初进入商品过剩时代，当时的资产还是相对稀缺，所以2006年时我提出要买自己买不起的东西，即投资加杠杆。但是，当大家纷纷加大资产配置比例，过了十余年后，随之而来就是资产总量过剩的时代。\n在商品过剩、资产过剩的时代，为了拉动经济，政府当局肯定会超发货币，超发货币的结果当然就是货币总量过剩，所以眼下是一个三重过剩叠加的时代。\n但所谓的过剩指的是“总量过剩”，“结构性短缺”依然存在，因此对普通个体而言，在总量机会变少的背景下，可以把握的机会叫作“结构性机会”，因为这一类机会是长期存在的。\n记者：您之前强调“今后投资机会主要在供给侧”，背后的主要逻辑是什么？\n李迅雷：主要逻辑在于，中国目前存在有效需求不足的情况，而在货币过剩的情况下，又存在着结构性短缺。因此，我所谈的供给侧投资机会，其实也就是结构性机会，从投资角度来看，只要发现“结构性短缺”领域，便是获利的机会。\n未来，更为重要的是，你所供给的是什么东西。比如大米的供给，它的需求总量是有限的；或是猪价上涨，大家就觉得说养猪收入不错，于是纷纷养猪，供给增加，猪价下跌。而且从长远来看，伴随中国消费升级的进程，猪肉消费预期会下降，这一方面是由于收入提高后，消费升级，对牛肉等高价肉的消费会提升；另一方面，中国人口占全球18%，却要消费全球50%的猪肉，未来预计会有所下降。\n比如荷兰的光刻机就是不卖给中国，这就属于“核心技术”的短缺；再比如就是有些民族品牌类的高端商品，也存在短缺现象，即需求持续向上，对价格不敏感，但供给面依然不足。\n记者：在当前国内经济减速换挡的时期，您认为结构性的投资机会将会在哪些行业中出现？\n李迅雷：其实每个行业中，只要能找到所谓的“高端需求”、“有效需求”，就都是有机会的，就连钢铁业也并非完全没有机会，比如说“特种钢”。不过单就“粗钢”来看，的确是产能和总量都过剩了。\n另外，虽然我们说国内“有效需求”不足，但在某些领域的需求还是很充分的。比如生物医药行业，未来成长性就会比较高，特别是他们研发的一些治疗缓解心血管疾病或是抗癌的药物。未来随着人们的财富增多，都希望自己的寿命可以延长，因为钱赚得再多，也很难买到延年益寿的长生不老药。相同逻辑下，由于我们都认为“青春”是无价的，当有很多人想留住青春时，医美行业的需求便随之出现了。\n02 如何看地产、黄金、比特币？\n记者：在第七次人口普查数据出来以后，您认为人口老龄化和区域结构性失衡两个趋势需要警惕，在这两个趋势下，您如何看待未来房地产市场？\n李迅雷：总量上是存在过剩的，加之人口老龄化，对房地产需求也会下降。因为老龄化后，大家更愿意把钱投到一些期限较短的地方，比如说固定收益、权益类资产，或是变现流动性好的地方，不太愿意投房地产。另外，人口的老龄化也会导致我们的投资意愿下降，消费意愿增强。\n但结构性机会仍然存在，从第七次人口普查来看，人口还是在往一线城市、二线城市集中，这个趋势没有变化，未来这些城市人口依然会是净流入，因此还是可以布局这些大城市的房地产，但问题就是当前估值太高，这是中国房价的一个特点。\n这其中关联着中国文化因素，中国人喜欢投资、理财、置产，而西方人在这方面需求就没有那么大，这跟我们东亚的文化背景是很有关系的。\n记者：您认为近期通胀走势对美联储的货币政策约束大吗？通胀是短期困境还是长期困境？对今年的黄金怎么看？\n李迅雷：美联储的主要目标是就业而非通胀，如果非农就业不达预期，那么美联储的收紧货币的时间还是会延后的，但我认为“taper”的动作美联储在第三季度末或四季度是有可能做的。\n就我的观点而论，当前的通胀大概率是一个中短期现象，持续时间或超过一年，这种通胀或许是对过去货币超发下的通缩是一种“补涨”，同时也是一种情绪上的宣泄。再就美联储放水后对美国金融市场的水位来看，应该也不算高，因为美国通过商业银行来创造货币的能力比较弱；中国商业银行创造货币的动机反而比较强，这也是为什么中国央行不怎么扩表，可以不需要像美联储那样，释放那么多流动性。\n至于黄金，黄金价格短期取决于实际利率的水平，若实际利率往下走的话，对于黄金是有利的。长期则取决于货币超发的程度，黄金在2018-20年涨了不少，今年调整一下也是正常的，但未来前景依然看好。\n记者：除了黄金之外，比特币在去年的“放水”行情下也有惊人的表现，那您对比特币后续的投资价值怎么看？\n李迅雷：比特币波动性比较大，这一特点使其很难成为一种货币，因此无法用在交易结算上。但它毕竟能够从这么多虚拟货币中脱颖而出，地位是摆在那里的，以后或许会是一个有限范围的投资品种，更像是一种资产。\n03 为什么要看宏观？\n记者：不少个人投资者以及部分机构投资者，对于宏观的关注度并不高，您认为宏观对于投资的意义是什么？\n李迅雷：宏观研究是一种典型的自上而下的研究，宏观研究可以让你通过财政政策、货币政策来判断大环境对自己的影响。现在之所以很多机构不配宏观研究员，主要是因为宏观服务非常开放，报告取得较为容易，大家对宏观研究员的需求也相对减少。\n但我觉得宏观也不能够简单停留在一些CPI、PPI的点评，或点评一下投房地产开发投资额是多少等等，我觉得这种宏观格局太小。我心目当中的宏观研究，它既要有历史的深度，又可以在现实中有实际的应用性和操作性。\n但如果宏观没做到位，就是在给市场制造噪音，始终只是在解读政策，对高频数据作技术分析。我更希望看到宏观研究从成果能引导政策，而不是跟在政策之后。我也常说，我们看宏观要用望远镜，不要用显微镜去看，显微镜看到的都是细枝末节，但宏观它是一个非常宏大、且自上而下的一种研究模式，它更多关注的是“顶层建筑设计”。\n记者：在“宏观-中观-微观”的链条上，请问该如何理解宏观的位置以及发挥的作用？\n李迅雷：我觉得首先要指明大方向，我们常关注美联储利率是往上还是往下，这会影响通胀预期的方向。但从更加长远的角度看，GDP的增速都是持续往下的。这就是我的宏观分析不同之处，侧重社会发展大周期。\n再举个例子，当我在研究历史时，发现中国历次改朝换代多少都与农民起义有关联性。第一个原因，是因为中国是农业大国，当佃农耕地的地租越收越多时，农民收入就会减少，导致社会收入逐渐分化。而长时间的和平，也意味着游戏规则始终不变，分化只会不断加剧，分化其实就是结构扭曲，结构扭曲最终就会导致经济从减速到负增长，最终触发战争。\n之后自上而下研究，就会往各个行业里面探究，而再往下就是探究个体的选择如何被这些宏观、中观的因素所影响。\n记者：最后请教下，您对财政政策和货币政策就未来一段时间的判断大概是什么样的？\n李迅雷：财政我觉得还是会偏紧一些，为什么呢？一方面是宏观杠杆率已经过高了，故政府部门需要降杠杆，因为我们现在要保持经济的长治久安，财政支出就要细水长流。\n那么，未来几年在经济增速下行的趋势下，货币政策就需要相对宽松，尤其当财政政策不是太积极的时候，货币政策就不能太紧了。如果财政紧的话，货币也紧，则稳增长目标就可能很难实现，所以财政“紧”的情况下，货币可以适度松一点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120565670,"gmtCreate":1624328249790,"gmtModify":1703833618913,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120565670","repostId":"1182298025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162169255,"gmtCreate":1624043277377,"gmtModify":1703827505060,"author":{"id":"3576110626320378","authorId":"3576110626320378","name":"Kiwiwilu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee1909480d0b33af640405b071cd60d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576110626320378","idStr":"3576110626320378"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162169255","repostId":"1166548417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166548417","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1624028501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166548417?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Gold, can you bargain the bottom now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166548417","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"流动性拐点来了\n\n1848年1月，颇有手艺的木匠马歇尔在现今加州首府萨克拉门托北边为他的老板建造锯木厂，在检查锯木厂水道时，看见河床内有一些闪亮的光点，是纯度高达23K的金片。马歇尔发现黄金的消息很快","content":"<p>In January 1848, Marshall, a skilled carpenter, was building a sawmill for his boss north of what is now Sacramento, California. When he inspected the sawmill waterway, he saw some shiny spots of gold with a purity of up to 23 karat in the riverbed. News of Marshall's discovery of gold quickly leaked and soon reached nearby San Francisco.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3086e99a9d8cc5468b5f8d6031329a\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In March 1848, it was reported by a newspaper and set off a craze. By June of that year, almost three-quarters of San Francisco's residents had gone to Northern California to search for gold, and the whole of San Francisco was almost an empty city. Since then, news has spread from the United States to the world, and the gold rush has attracted more people to join.</p><p>At the time, then-President Jackson was struggling to eliminate the effects of the decade-long Great Recession, which began in 1837. With the emergence of the gold rush, the gold production in the United States began to soar. From 1851 to 1855, the gold production in the United States reached 45% of the world's total production, the circulation of gold increased greatly, and the financial securities industry developed rapidly. The San Francisco Stock Exchange quickly became the second largest stock exchange in the United States after the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p>This is the story of the American gold rush, which also stabilized the American economy at that time.</p><p><b>1. Why it plunged</b></p><p>Why is gold so sought after from ancient times to the present? Marx exposed the essence in Critique of Political Economy: gold and silver are naturally not currency, but currency is naturally gold and silver.</p><p>In the past two days, due to a much-anticipated meeting, the natural gold of the currency is cranking.</p><p>In the early hours of Thursday morning, after two days of meeting, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision: keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 0%-0.25%, in line with expectations. The Fed dot plot shows two rate hike by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its economic forecast for 2021 and sharply raised its inflation forecast for this year.</p><p>After the announcement of the FOMC decision, the most violent reaction was gold. COMEX gold futures plunged 4.7% on the 2nd, hitting a new low since the end of April this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f59aaedbd79fabcbebe118ea0bf700\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the year, this wave of gold rebounded all the way from the lowest point of $1,677 in March to $1,919. The underlying logic supported the global inflation expectation under the background of continuous water release, which led to the decline of real interest rates and supported the upward trend of gold prices. In the United States, for example, CPI rose 5% year-on-year after a seasonal adjustment in May, the largest year-on-year increase since August 2008.</p><p>However, after the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve, the logic of gold rising in the early stage suffered much damage.</p><p>For the inflation outlook, the Federal Reserve is a little cowardly. The original read as follows: We do not rule out the possibility that prices continue to rise; Not ruling out the possibility that inflation will last longer than expected and contribute to the rise in expectations; If we see inflation expectations rise, contrary to our base case, we will take action to bring inflation down.</p><p>Before, I took the trouble to appease the market: Don't worry, inflation is temporary. But last night it was revealed that future inflation may be higher and more persistent than we expected, and to prepare policy for previous \"miscalculations\".</p><p>On the issue of bond purchases, Powell's exact words were: If progress continues, plans for downsizing will be considered at the next meeting. According to the plan, the next meeting is in July. If the economy continues to recover, will tapering also have to arrange it!</p><p>The interest rate meeting also gave a faster rate hike pace:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f308b03859c0a365f904272d110f9fd\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Separately, the Fed also adjusted the excess reserve rate from 0.1% to 0.15% and the overnight reverse repo rate from 0% to 0.05%.</p><p>In short, the Federal Reserve said the U-turn of monetary policy extremely tactfully, and made a lot of cover-ups on this issue, but the market's reaction was more real, and it was determined that the Fed's monetary policy would turn around. The market expects the inflection point of the dollar to come, and the real interest rate is expected to rise. This is the underlying logic of gold's sharp plunge.</p><p><b>2. What do you think of the future?</b></p><p>First, let's take a look at the two pricing logics of gold.</p><p>Historically, gold has served as \"inflation-resistant\" hard currency. Inflation, gold up, deflation, gold down. Gold, like the stock market, is a trading expectation.</p><p>When the market expects inflation to increase, the price of gold will go up. If the final data proves that inflation is not large or even reasonable, then the price of gold will fall back. Moreover, the market expects deflation and gold will fall. When deflation is priced in by the market, there is a slight expectation of inflation recovery, and gold will be pulled up immediately.</p><p>Another big factor that determines the medium and long-term trend of gold is the nominal interest rate, which is called opportunity cost. Gold rises when nominal interest rates are low, i.e. opportunity costs are low, and vice versa. This is similar to another pair of seesaw-the stock market and the bond market.</p><p>The combination of the two factors, that is, the real interest rate is the only logic of the medium and long-term movement of absolute gold prices. Logically, in the short term, it is necessary to add hedging functions, such as sudden geopolitics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f504e3431540948d72e73ffad7dcf821\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here's a formula: real interest rate = nominal interest rate-inflation.</p><p>When the nominal interest rate falls (good for gold) and inflation falls faster than the former (bad for gold), the real interest rate rises relatively, then the two combine to point to the decline of gold.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting conveyed an obvious signal: the expected inflection point of US dollar liquidity has come, which leads to the expected real interest rate rising, which puts significant pressure on the price of gold. In the future, inflation in the United States will continue to rise, and the Federal Reserve has a high probability of turning to monetary policy in a way that exceeds expectations. If it evolves according to this, it means that gold may not have fallen in place yet, and investors who are doing more bargain hunting at present need to be very cautious.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold, can you bargain the bottom now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold, can you bargain the bottom now?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 23:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In January 1848, Marshall, a skilled carpenter, was building a sawmill for his boss north of what is now Sacramento, California. When he inspected the sawmill waterway, he saw some shiny spots of gold with a purity of up to 23 karat in the riverbed. News of Marshall's discovery of gold quickly leaked and soon reached nearby San Francisco.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3086e99a9d8cc5468b5f8d6031329a\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In March 1848, it was reported by a newspaper and set off a craze. By June of that year, almost three-quarters of San Francisco's residents had gone to Northern California to search for gold, and the whole of San Francisco was almost an empty city. Since then, news has spread from the United States to the world, and the gold rush has attracted more people to join.</p><p>At the time, then-President Jackson was struggling to eliminate the effects of the decade-long Great Recession, which began in 1837. With the emergence of the gold rush, the gold production in the United States began to soar. From 1851 to 1855, the gold production in the United States reached 45% of the world's total production, the circulation of gold increased greatly, and the financial securities industry developed rapidly. The San Francisco Stock Exchange quickly became the second largest stock exchange in the United States after the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p>This is the story of the American gold rush, which also stabilized the American economy at that time.</p><p><b>1. Why it plunged</b></p><p>Why is gold so sought after from ancient times to the present? Marx exposed the essence in Critique of Political Economy: gold and silver are naturally not currency, but currency is naturally gold and silver.</p><p>In the past two days, due to a much-anticipated meeting, the natural gold of the currency is cranking.</p><p>In the early hours of Thursday morning, after two days of meeting, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision: keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 0%-0.25%, in line with expectations. The Fed dot plot shows two rate hike by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its economic forecast for 2021 and sharply raised its inflation forecast for this year.</p><p>After the announcement of the FOMC decision, the most violent reaction was gold. COMEX gold futures plunged 4.7% on the 2nd, hitting a new low since the end of April this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f59aaedbd79fabcbebe118ea0bf700\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After the year, this wave of gold rebounded all the way from the lowest point of $1,677 in March to $1,919. The underlying logic supported the global inflation expectation under the background of continuous water release, which led to the decline of real interest rates and supported the upward trend of gold prices. In the United States, for example, CPI rose 5% year-on-year after a seasonal adjustment in May, the largest year-on-year increase since August 2008.</p><p>However, after the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve, the logic of gold rising in the early stage suffered much damage.</p><p>For the inflation outlook, the Federal Reserve is a little cowardly. The original read as follows: We do not rule out the possibility that prices continue to rise; Not ruling out the possibility that inflation will last longer than expected and contribute to the rise in expectations; If we see inflation expectations rise, contrary to our base case, we will take action to bring inflation down.</p><p>Before, I took the trouble to appease the market: Don't worry, inflation is temporary. But last night it was revealed that future inflation may be higher and more persistent than we expected, and to prepare policy for previous \"miscalculations\".</p><p>On the issue of bond purchases, Powell's exact words were: If progress continues, plans for downsizing will be considered at the next meeting. According to the plan, the next meeting is in July. If the economy continues to recover, will tapering also have to arrange it!</p><p>The interest rate meeting also gave a faster rate hike pace:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f308b03859c0a365f904272d110f9fd\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Separately, the Fed also adjusted the excess reserve rate from 0.1% to 0.15% and the overnight reverse repo rate from 0% to 0.05%.</p><p>In short, the Federal Reserve said the U-turn of monetary policy extremely tactfully, and made a lot of cover-ups on this issue, but the market's reaction was more real, and it was determined that the Fed's monetary policy would turn around. The market expects the inflection point of the dollar to come, and the real interest rate is expected to rise. This is the underlying logic of gold's sharp plunge.</p><p><b>2. What do you think of the future?</b></p><p>First, let's take a look at the two pricing logics of gold.</p><p>Historically, gold has served as \"inflation-resistant\" hard currency. Inflation, gold up, deflation, gold down. Gold, like the stock market, is a trading expectation.</p><p>When the market expects inflation to increase, the price of gold will go up. If the final data proves that inflation is not large or even reasonable, then the price of gold will fall back. Moreover, the market expects deflation and gold will fall. When deflation is priced in by the market, there is a slight expectation of inflation recovery, and gold will be pulled up immediately.</p><p>Another big factor that determines the medium and long-term trend of gold is the nominal interest rate, which is called opportunity cost. Gold rises when nominal interest rates are low, i.e. opportunity costs are low, and vice versa. This is similar to another pair of seesaw-the stock market and the bond market.</p><p>The combination of the two factors, that is, the real interest rate is the only logic of the medium and long-term movement of absolute gold prices. Logically, in the short term, it is necessary to add hedging functions, such as sudden geopolitics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f504e3431540948d72e73ffad7dcf821\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Here's a formula: real interest rate = nominal interest rate-inflation.</p><p>When the nominal interest rate falls (good for gold) and inflation falls faster than the former (bad for gold), the real interest rate rises relatively, then the two combine to point to the decline of gold.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting conveyed an obvious signal: the expected inflection point of US dollar liquidity has come, which leads to the expected real interest rate rising, which puts significant pressure on the price of gold. In the future, inflation in the United States will continue to rise, and the Federal Reserve has a high probability of turning to monetary policy in a way that exceeds expectations. If it evolves according to this, it means that gold may not have fallen in place yet, and investors who are doing more bargain hunting at present need to be very cautious.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166548417","content_text":"流动性拐点来了\n\n1848年1月，颇有手艺的木匠马歇尔在现今加州首府萨克拉门托北边为他的老板建造锯木厂，在检查锯木厂水道时，看见河床内有一些闪亮的光点，是纯度高达23K的金片。马歇尔发现黄金的消息很快泄露，不久传到附近的旧金山。\n\n1848年3月，被一家报纸报道后掀起热潮，到了当年6月，差不多3/4的旧金山居民都奔赴北加州淘金，整个旧金山几乎成为空城。此后，消息又从美国传向世界，淘金热吸引了更多人的加入。\n当时，时任美国总统杰克逊正在为消除始于1837年的十年经济大衰退影响而焦头烂额。淘金热的出现，使得美国的黄金产量开始飙升，1851-1855年间，美国黄金产量达世界总产量的45%，黄金流通量大增，金融证券业快速发展，旧金山证券交易所迅速成为仅次于纽交所的美国第二大证券交易所。\n这就是美国淘金热的故事，也稳定了彼时的美国经济。\n1.缘何暴跌\n为什么黄金从古到今如此受追捧，马克思在《政治经济学批判》中一语道破了本质：金银天然不是货币，但货币天然是金银。\n最近两天，由于一场万众瞩目的会议，天然是货币的黄金风声鹤唳。\n周四凌晨，美联储经过两天的会议之后，公布最新利率决议：维持基准利率在0%-0.25%区间不变，符合预期。美联储点阵图显示，到2023年底将实现两次加息。同时，美联储上调了2021年的经济预期，并大幅上调了今年的通胀预期。\nFOMC决策公布后，反应最为剧烈的就是黄金，COMEX黄金期货2日重挫4.7%，创今年4月底以来的新低。\n\n年后这波黄金从3月份最低点1677美元一路反弹至1919美元，底层逻辑支撑的就是不断放水背景下推升全球通胀预期，导致实际利率下滑，支撑金价上行。以美国为例，5月CPI经季节性调整后同比增长5%，创2008年8月以来最大同比增幅。\n不过，美联储议息会议后，前期黄金上涨的逻辑遭受了不小破坏。\n对于通胀前景问题，美联储有点认怂。原文如下：我们不排除价格继续上涨的可能性；不排除通货膨胀会比预期持续更长时间的可能性，并助长预期上升；如果看到通胀预期上升，与我们的基本情况相反，我们将采取行动降低通胀。\n而在此前不厌其烦的安抚市场：别担心，通胀是暂时的。但昨晚却透露了未来通胀可能会比我们预期的更高更持久，并为此前的“误判”做好政策准备。\n对于购债问题，鲍威尔的原话是：如果进展继续，将在接下来的会议上考虑缩减规模的计划。按照计划，下一次会议是7月，如果经济继续恢复，缩债是不是也要安排上了呢！\n议息会议还给出了更快的加息节奏：\n\n另外，美联储还将超额准备金利率从0.1%调整至0.15%，将隔夜逆回购利率由0%调整至0.05%。\n总之，美联储将货币政策掉头一事说的极其委婉，并对此问题上做了许多遮掩，但市场的反应更为真实，认定美联储的货币政策将要掉头。市场预期美元拐点来了，预期实际利率会上行。这是黄金大幅暴跌的底层逻辑。\n2.未来怎么看？\n首先，我们来看下黄金的两大定价逻辑。\n历来，黄金作为“抗通胀”的硬货币。通胀，黄金上涨，通缩，黄金下跌。黄金同股市一样，均是交易预期。\n当市场预期通胀加大，金价会上行，如果最终数据证实通胀不大甚至合理，那么金价就会回落。再者，市场预期出现通缩，黄金下跌，当被通缩被市场Price in之后，稍有通胀回升预期，黄金会立马被拉涨。\n决定黄金中长期走势的另外一大因素的是名义利率，也就是所谓的机会成本。当名义利率低，即机会成本低的时候，黄金会上涨，反之亦然。这跟另一对跷跷板——股市与债市，异曲同工。\n两个因素综合，即真实利率是绝对黄金价格中长期走势的唯一逻辑。短期逻辑上，需要加上避险功能，比如突发的地缘政治等。\n\n这里有一个公式：真实利率=名义利率-通胀。\n当名义利率下降（利好黄金），通胀较前者下降更快的时候（利空黄金），真实利率相对提升，那么两者合力指向黄金下跌。\n此次美联储议息会议传达出较为明显的信号：美元流动性预期拐点来了，导致预期的实际利率攀升，对黄金价格产生明显施压。未来，美国通胀继续攀升，美联储是有不小概率以超预期的方式转向货币政策，如果按照这个来演化，那么意味着黄金可能还没有跌到位，当前抄底做多的投资者还需非常谨慎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}