Profile - To The Moon

Nanatsy

Posts · 5Posts · 5
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- NanatsyNanatsy
  ·2021-02-09
  Looking forward!
  The New Dawn In Cannabis Has Arrived
  Summary After a two-year dark night, a new dawn is here for cannabis investors. Cannabis companies
  The New Dawn In Cannabis Has Arrived
  184 Comment
  1
  Share
  Report
No following yet

Most Discussed

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3575035685748490","uuid":"3575035685748490","gmtCreate":1611941662255,"gmtModify":1612841255872,"name":"Nanatsy","pinyin":"nanatsy","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69ebef2276936bd9cf24a3bb6ee24801","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":24,"tweetSize":5,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.15","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.10","exceedPercentage":"60.09%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":389748159,"gmtCreate":1612800989171,"gmtModify":1704874493072,"author":{"id":"3575035685748490","authorId":"3575035685748490","name":"Nanatsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69ebef2276936bd9cf24a3bb6ee24801","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575035685748490","authorIdStr":"3575035685748490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking forward!","listText":"Looking forward!","text":"Looking forward!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389748159","repostId":"1108268363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108268363","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612773434,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108268363?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-08 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The New Dawn In Cannabis Has Arrived","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108268363","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAfter a two-year dark night, a new dawn is here for cannabis investors.\nCannabis companies ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>After a two-year dark night, a new dawn is here for cannabis investors.</li>\n <li>Cannabis companies have stronger fundamentals that will drive the sector higher over the next five years.</li>\n <li>Investors can now have more clarity about which companies have the greatest potential for growth.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>There's a new dawn in cannabis. A dark and very long night of dismal performance started on the very day that cannabis became legal in Canada (Date of legalization: Oct. 17, 2018. Peak price for Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ): Oct. 15, 2018). It extended two full years, finally ending in capitulation in October 2020. Over the last four months stock prices all over the industry have exploded upwards. This is clear in the chart below showing the five companies I have profiled on Seeking Alpha. Also included is the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF as a proxy for the sector.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e97063b87414e13c7722dd6212a14fe8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p>\n<p>Companies: AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) , Trulieve Cannabis (OTCQX:TCNNF), Ayr Strategies (OTCQX:AYRWF), MediPharm (OTCQX:MEDIF), Valens Company (OTCQX:VLNCF).</p>\n<p>In this article we will take an in-depth look at what happened, discuss the future, and see how to position ourselves for more success.</p>\n<p><b>What happened?</b></p>\n<p>Cannabis is following a cycle inevitable in emerging industries. After an initial period of slow development there is a period of increasing euphoria. When the euphoria becomes unsustainable the investing bubble bursts, as it did on Oct. 17, 2018. A lengthy decline follows as reality sets in and stock prices reflect that reality (Oct. 2018 to Oct. 2020). In the process good companies distinguish themselves and stock prices begin rising again on a more fundamentally sound basis as the industry potential begins to be fulfilled. This is where we are today. This cycle can be repeated a number of times.</p>\n<p>Fluctuations were more extreme in cannabis stock prices than other industries during this time. Again using the Alternative Harvest ETF MJ as a proxy for the cannabis sector, cannabis has had both bigger losses and bigger gains over the past two years:</p>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d1aea063256e2ea420365b8db0c60ac\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"399\">\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr></tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>High levels of price change is known as high beta. It is characteristic of any emerging industry, and there are a number of reasons for it. In a small industry it takes much less money flow to change the direction of stock prices, and cannabis is small. In mid-2020 the capitalization of the entire public cannabis sector was about the same as an average S&amp;P500 company.</p>\n<p>In addition, there is much more uncertainty in an emerging industry than in established ones. The performance of a company like 3M (MMM) is far more predictable than a Tilray (TLRY) or Green Thumb (OTCQX:GTBIF). Cannabis will be an emerging industry for years to come, and high beta can be expected to continue.</p>\n<p>During cannabis investors' wild ride some important things did not change. The portion of the population that favors greater access continued to increase.Currently 68% of Americans favor more access. Legalization has continued to expand. New Jersey, South Dakota and Arizona approved recreational this past November, making recreational legal in 15 states and medicinal legal in 37 states. Most importantly, the projections of very strong industry growth did not change even in the darkest days of the last two years, and&nbsp;sales growth has continued unabated.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79f6032429fef1825eae70d839152a44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Source: New Frontier Data</span></p>\n<p><b>Where are we now?</b></p>\n<p>As of 2/2/2021 cannabis is in a blistering bull market. The table below summarizes how the five companies I have profiled on Seeking Alpha have done since my recommendation:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20765b95145742c02aa8573f7699b1d9\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"700\"></p>\n<p>These recommendations helped put me in the top 10% of investment bloggers on tipranks.com (765 out of 7886).</p>\n<p><b>Where are we headed?</b></p>\n<p>In the long term, the outlook for the industry is undeniably bullish. Canada is still below expectations, but even theresales are still doubling year over year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a394820ee4510af6b43e81bb9b00e269\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"448\"><span>Source: Marijuana Business Daily</span></p>\n<p>The US market will continue to grow quickly&nbsp;as more states legalize and operations in many newly legal states ramp up.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b99fedfee384893f82294a7f19050c6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: Statista.com</span></p>\n<p>Growth will continue expanding in the rest of the world, although countries vary widely in their acceptance of cannabis. Some countries, like Australia, Germany, Peru, and Mexico are in the process of expanding access. Others, such as the United Kingdom, are moving slowly or not at all.</p>\n<p>There will be setbacks along the way. Oppressive regulations and taxes are a constant challenge. In some states, notably California, burdensome legislation and taxes have been a significant drag on the industry. Investors must take a close look at how newly legal states will address these issues. In New Jersey, for example, legalization has been slowed as legislators compete for their pet regulations and tax schemes.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, any positive regulatory developments will give a substantial boost to cannabis stocks. One likely positive is the coming passage of the Safe Banking Act, which passed the US House in September 2019 by a lopsided 322-103 vote before being derailed by COVID-19 in the Senate.</p>\n<p>The biggest risks are restrictions based on health concerns. Research on the positive and negative effects of cannabis is being quickly ramped up but existing research is very limited. Many jurisdictions around the world are moving slowly on access out of fear of legalizing something that later may reveal serious adverse effects on physical or mental health. The FDA is moving much more slowly than cannabis advocates anticipated, which has already hurt a CBD industry that did not expect the lengthy delay in regulation last year. The bias toward caution was exacerbated by the vaping controversy in 2020.</p>\n<p>There is also risk related to a general stock market decline. Cannabis stocks generally follow the direction of the market and experience greater movement than the general market. A prolonged market decline would mean significant losses for cannabis shares.</p>\n<p><b>What can investors do now?</b></p>\n<p>The actions an investor takes now depends partly on his or her time horizon. It also depends on how fully invested he or she is. Since my first SA cannabis article in September 2019 (Cannabis Investing: Maximize Your Chance For Success) I have stressed that cannabis investing is a long-term project. The important drivers of the industry are unremittingly bullish. Looking out five years the industry sales will be around 100% bigger, and stock prices as a whole should reflect that.</p>\n<p>Currently North America has about a 50% share of the global market. It will continue to be the largest market for years to come, but it is a dynamic one with great growth ahead. By focusing on companies with mostly or all North American business, investors can avoid the uncertainty and extra complexity inherent in foreign operations.</p>\n<p>At this point it is becoming more clear which companies will be successful and which may not. The market is signaling this information via stock prices. Prices are a more reliable indicator of success now that companies have a track record and there are more investment professionals with eyes on the sector, but as we learned over the past two years stock prices can be a faulty signal. InMessage From Cannabis: It's Going To Be A Longer, Harder Trek(December 2019) I identified four parameters that were important to cannabis companies' prospects at that time:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Regulation: How much does regulation in the areas where a company operates help or hinder the business.</p></li>\n <li><p>Taxes: How much of a burden are taxes in areas where a company operates.</p></li>\n <li><p>Capital: How easy is it to access capital, whether to support continuing operations or expand.</p></li>\n <li><p>Management: Does management possess the skills required to build a successful company in an emerging industry?</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>These four parameters are still important, but as the industry enters a new growth stage two are becoming dominant: capital and management.</p>\n<p><b>Capital:</b>Much capital will be needed for companies to grow in coming years. Those that can get it will be able to build on their success, and those that can't will be left behind. There are also companies, such as Harvest Health &amp; Recreation (OTCQX:HRVSF), that can access capital but are in a weakened state because of too much past borrowing. The amount of capital they can raise through debt will be limited, and interest costs will be a drag on performance. In addition, companies that are over-reliant on share issuance for capital, such as Aurora (ACB), have the amount they can raise limited because of low share prices, and the dilution means building shareholder value will be difficult.</p>\n<p><b>Management</b>: It is difficult to determine management quality in the initial stages of an emerging industry, when the ability to raise money and engage investor enthusiasm are the main requirements. This is a very different skill set than what is required to develop and run a successful business. Fortunately, we have moved beyond that first stage, and the most skilled leaders are becoming visible through their financial results. This is being reflected in stock prices, which can now reflect performance (at least in part) rather than hype. If the last two years have taught us anything, it's that superior management is crucial to success for companies and investors.</p>\n<p>The long and the short of it</p>\n<p>Long-term investors (timeline greater than one year) can be guided by theprojections of 18% compound growthof the industry over the next five years. This is not to say that there won't be big swings in prices, that is almost guaranteed in a high beta emerging industry. Those who are fully invested can categorize most positions as a hold. Market timing is not a consideration for long-term investing and the current bull leg may continue to run or a price correction may begin tomorrow.</p>\n<p>Prices could decline 50%, but the long-term trend is strongly up, and the recent market has been so strong even a 50% retracement would leave some positions in the black. For example, if Trulieve falls from $42 to $21 that is still 100% above the 10 price a year ago.</p>\n<p>Investors who are not fully invested have a couple of good options. The first is a cannabis ETF, which is the low risk way to participate in industry growth. Newer ETFs have an interesting advantage over older ones because they can select companies with proven performance and can concentrate on geographies or business niches that are proving to have the most profit potential. AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO) is in the first category, and AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) is in the second.</p>\n<p>Moreover, these actively managed ETFs have more flexibility than passively managed ones like ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF and Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (OTCPK:HMLSF). Investors who prefer individual names can choose from many of the companies who are having operational success, such as Trulieve, Green Thumb (OTCQX:GTBIF), and Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), or whose price action is indicating confidence by the investing community, such as Ayr Strategies, GrowGeneration (GRWG), or Cresco Labs (OTCQX:CRLBF). Given the uncertainty of prices in the short term, positions should be scaled up in several increments.</p>\n<p>The guidelines above are also useful for shorter-term horizons (timeline less than one year). ETFs are the low risk play. Considering the rapid recent price increases across the industry, new positions in ETFs or individual names should be established in increments. As sure as night follows day there will be big corrections in cannabis, particularly if one occurs in the broader stock market.</p>\n<p>Short-term investors need to look seriously at their financial and psychological tolerance for a significant decline in their cannabis portfolio, and should not be putting money in that they need back in a year or less. Considering the amount of attention the industry is now receiving, there are no undiscovered gems. If a company has not participated in the recent runup it's a sign about their prospects that should not be ignored.</p>\n<p><i>Special Note on ETFs: Takeovers can have a very positive effect on ETFs. On February 3 Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) agreed to acquire GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) at a 50% premium. GWPH was the second largest holding in the YOLO ETF. The increase in value of those GWPH shares caused an immediate $3/share increase in the YOLO net asset value, and YOLO shares rose 8.4% that day.</i></p>\n<p>There are certain types of companies that both short and long-term investors can now turn away from.<b>Companies at less than $1.00 a share:</b>The probability of finding an undiscovered gem at this point is low. As discussed above, the money and attention flowing into the sector over the last four months has driven prices up for most if not all companies that have potential for durable success. Certainly investing in any company with share prices under $1.00 at this point is pure speculation.<b>Companies that are undergoing major restructuring/reorganization/change in strategy:</b>These changes usually occur when the current strategy is not working. While it may be necessary, it often indicates subpar management performance. It also establishes new sources of risk and uncertainty. With the current strength and opportunities in the industry today, it is simply not necessary to put money in a company with these negatives. Canopy Growth (CGC) is one example. Canopy may end up being very successful, but given the turmoil it has experienced over two years there are numerous companies offering similar potential rewards for less risk.</p>\n<p><b>Summing up</b></p>\n<p>Cannabis investors are in a good place. The initial irrational exuberance and capitulation are history, and we are now in a strong, uptrending market. Industry fundamentals are very bullish, as they have been during the last two years of market turmoil. Virtually every trend is pushing the industry forward. Potential pitfalls such as undiscovered health issues and a general market decline must be acknowledged, but they are currently in the background</p>\n<p>Fortunately, it is becoming clearer which companies will be successful, and long-term investors can have more confidence that their choices will pay off. The recent runup in prices, on the order of 300% or more in some companies, makes decisions for the shorter term more problematic, which is why investing in increments is recommended.</p>\n<p>As the number of ETFs rises there are more opportunities for investors who prefer this lower risk and lower maintenance approach. It is an exciting time to be involved in the still-emerging cannabis industry.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The New Dawn In Cannabis Has Arrived</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe New Dawn In Cannabis Has Arrived\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 16:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404216-new-dawn-in-cannabis-arrived><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAfter a two-year dark night, a new dawn is here for cannabis investors.\nCannabis companies have stronger fundamentals that will drive the sector higher over the next five years.\nInvestors can...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404216-new-dawn-in-cannabis-arrived\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404216-new-dawn-in-cannabis-arrived","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1108268363","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter a two-year dark night, a new dawn is here for cannabis investors.\nCannabis companies have stronger fundamentals that will drive the sector higher over the next five years.\nInvestors can now have more clarity about which companies have the greatest potential for growth.\n\nThere's a new dawn in cannabis. A dark and very long night of dismal performance started on the very day that cannabis became legal in Canada (Date of legalization: Oct. 17, 2018. Peak price for Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ): Oct. 15, 2018). It extended two full years, finally ending in capitulation in October 2020. Over the last four months stock prices all over the industry have exploded upwards. This is clear in the chart below showing the five companies I have profiled on Seeking Alpha. Also included is the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF as a proxy for the sector.\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nCompanies: AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) , Trulieve Cannabis (OTCQX:TCNNF), Ayr Strategies (OTCQX:AYRWF), MediPharm (OTCQX:MEDIF), Valens Company (OTCQX:VLNCF).\nIn this article we will take an in-depth look at what happened, discuss the future, and see how to position ourselves for more success.\nWhat happened?\nCannabis is following a cycle inevitable in emerging industries. After an initial period of slow development there is a period of increasing euphoria. When the euphoria becomes unsustainable the investing bubble bursts, as it did on Oct. 17, 2018. A lengthy decline follows as reality sets in and stock prices reflect that reality (Oct. 2018 to Oct. 2020). In the process good companies distinguish themselves and stock prices begin rising again on a more fundamentally sound basis as the industry potential begins to be fulfilled. This is where we are today. This cycle can be repeated a number of times.\nFluctuations were more extreme in cannabis stock prices than other industries during this time. Again using the Alternative Harvest ETF MJ as a proxy for the cannabis sector, cannabis has had both bigger losses and bigger gains over the past two years:\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHigh levels of price change is known as high beta. It is characteristic of any emerging industry, and there are a number of reasons for it. In a small industry it takes much less money flow to change the direction of stock prices, and cannabis is small. In mid-2020 the capitalization of the entire public cannabis sector was about the same as an average S&P500 company.\nIn addition, there is much more uncertainty in an emerging industry than in established ones. The performance of a company like 3M (MMM) is far more predictable than a Tilray (TLRY) or Green Thumb (OTCQX:GTBIF). Cannabis will be an emerging industry for years to come, and high beta can be expected to continue.\nDuring cannabis investors' wild ride some important things did not change. The portion of the population that favors greater access continued to increase.Currently 68% of Americans favor more access. Legalization has continued to expand. New Jersey, South Dakota and Arizona approved recreational this past November, making recreational legal in 15 states and medicinal legal in 37 states. Most importantly, the projections of very strong industry growth did not change even in the darkest days of the last two years, and sales growth has continued unabated.\nSource: New Frontier Data\nWhere are we now?\nAs of 2/2/2021 cannabis is in a blistering bull market. The table below summarizes how the five companies I have profiled on Seeking Alpha have done since my recommendation:\n\nThese recommendations helped put me in the top 10% of investment bloggers on tipranks.com (765 out of 7886).\nWhere are we headed?\nIn the long term, the outlook for the industry is undeniably bullish. Canada is still below expectations, but even theresales are still doubling year over year.\nSource: Marijuana Business Daily\nThe US market will continue to grow quickly as more states legalize and operations in many newly legal states ramp up.\nSource: Statista.com\nGrowth will continue expanding in the rest of the world, although countries vary widely in their acceptance of cannabis. Some countries, like Australia, Germany, Peru, and Mexico are in the process of expanding access. Others, such as the United Kingdom, are moving slowly or not at all.\nThere will be setbacks along the way. Oppressive regulations and taxes are a constant challenge. In some states, notably California, burdensome legislation and taxes have been a significant drag on the industry. Investors must take a close look at how newly legal states will address these issues. In New Jersey, for example, legalization has been slowed as legislators compete for their pet regulations and tax schemes.\nOn the other hand, any positive regulatory developments will give a substantial boost to cannabis stocks. One likely positive is the coming passage of the Safe Banking Act, which passed the US House in September 2019 by a lopsided 322-103 vote before being derailed by COVID-19 in the Senate.\nThe biggest risks are restrictions based on health concerns. Research on the positive and negative effects of cannabis is being quickly ramped up but existing research is very limited. Many jurisdictions around the world are moving slowly on access out of fear of legalizing something that later may reveal serious adverse effects on physical or mental health. The FDA is moving much more slowly than cannabis advocates anticipated, which has already hurt a CBD industry that did not expect the lengthy delay in regulation last year. The bias toward caution was exacerbated by the vaping controversy in 2020.\nThere is also risk related to a general stock market decline. Cannabis stocks generally follow the direction of the market and experience greater movement than the general market. A prolonged market decline would mean significant losses for cannabis shares.\nWhat can investors do now?\nThe actions an investor takes now depends partly on his or her time horizon. It also depends on how fully invested he or she is. Since my first SA cannabis article in September 2019 (Cannabis Investing: Maximize Your Chance For Success) I have stressed that cannabis investing is a long-term project. The important drivers of the industry are unremittingly bullish. Looking out five years the industry sales will be around 100% bigger, and stock prices as a whole should reflect that.\nCurrently North America has about a 50% share of the global market. It will continue to be the largest market for years to come, but it is a dynamic one with great growth ahead. By focusing on companies with mostly or all North American business, investors can avoid the uncertainty and extra complexity inherent in foreign operations.\nAt this point it is becoming more clear which companies will be successful and which may not. The market is signaling this information via stock prices. Prices are a more reliable indicator of success now that companies have a track record and there are more investment professionals with eyes on the sector, but as we learned over the past two years stock prices can be a faulty signal. InMessage From Cannabis: It's Going To Be A Longer, Harder Trek(December 2019) I identified four parameters that were important to cannabis companies' prospects at that time:\n\nRegulation: How much does regulation in the areas where a company operates help or hinder the business.\nTaxes: How much of a burden are taxes in areas where a company operates.\nCapital: How easy is it to access capital, whether to support continuing operations or expand.\nManagement: Does management possess the skills required to build a successful company in an emerging industry?\n\nThese four parameters are still important, but as the industry enters a new growth stage two are becoming dominant: capital and management.\nCapital:Much capital will be needed for companies to grow in coming years. Those that can get it will be able to build on their success, and those that can't will be left behind. There are also companies, such as Harvest Health & Recreation (OTCQX:HRVSF), that can access capital but are in a weakened state because of too much past borrowing. The amount of capital they can raise through debt will be limited, and interest costs will be a drag on performance. In addition, companies that are over-reliant on share issuance for capital, such as Aurora (ACB), have the amount they can raise limited because of low share prices, and the dilution means building shareholder value will be difficult.\nManagement: It is difficult to determine management quality in the initial stages of an emerging industry, when the ability to raise money and engage investor enthusiasm are the main requirements. This is a very different skill set than what is required to develop and run a successful business. Fortunately, we have moved beyond that first stage, and the most skilled leaders are becoming visible through their financial results. This is being reflected in stock prices, which can now reflect performance (at least in part) rather than hype. If the last two years have taught us anything, it's that superior management is crucial to success for companies and investors.\nThe long and the short of it\nLong-term investors (timeline greater than one year) can be guided by theprojections of 18% compound growthof the industry over the next five years. This is not to say that there won't be big swings in prices, that is almost guaranteed in a high beta emerging industry. Those who are fully invested can categorize most positions as a hold. Market timing is not a consideration for long-term investing and the current bull leg may continue to run or a price correction may begin tomorrow.\nPrices could decline 50%, but the long-term trend is strongly up, and the recent market has been so strong even a 50% retracement would leave some positions in the black. For example, if Trulieve falls from $42 to $21 that is still 100% above the 10 price a year ago.\nInvestors who are not fully invested have a couple of good options. The first is a cannabis ETF, which is the low risk way to participate in industry growth. Newer ETFs have an interesting advantage over older ones because they can select companies with proven performance and can concentrate on geographies or business niches that are proving to have the most profit potential. AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO) is in the first category, and AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) is in the second.\nMoreover, these actively managed ETFs have more flexibility than passively managed ones like ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF and Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF (OTCPK:HMLSF). Investors who prefer individual names can choose from many of the companies who are having operational success, such as Trulieve, Green Thumb (OTCQX:GTBIF), and Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), or whose price action is indicating confidence by the investing community, such as Ayr Strategies, GrowGeneration (GRWG), or Cresco Labs (OTCQX:CRLBF). Given the uncertainty of prices in the short term, positions should be scaled up in several increments.\nThe guidelines above are also useful for shorter-term horizons (timeline less than one year). ETFs are the low risk play. Considering the rapid recent price increases across the industry, new positions in ETFs or individual names should be established in increments. As sure as night follows day there will be big corrections in cannabis, particularly if one occurs in the broader stock market.\nShort-term investors need to look seriously at their financial and psychological tolerance for a significant decline in their cannabis portfolio, and should not be putting money in that they need back in a year or less. Considering the amount of attention the industry is now receiving, there are no undiscovered gems. If a company has not participated in the recent runup it's a sign about their prospects that should not be ignored.\nSpecial Note on ETFs: Takeovers can have a very positive effect on ETFs. On February 3 Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) agreed to acquire GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) at a 50% premium. GWPH was the second largest holding in the YOLO ETF. The increase in value of those GWPH shares caused an immediate $3/share increase in the YOLO net asset value, and YOLO shares rose 8.4% that day.\nThere are certain types of companies that both short and long-term investors can now turn away from.Companies at less than $1.00 a share:The probability of finding an undiscovered gem at this point is low. As discussed above, the money and attention flowing into the sector over the last four months has driven prices up for most if not all companies that have potential for durable success. Certainly investing in any company with share prices under $1.00 at this point is pure speculation.Companies that are undergoing major restructuring/reorganization/change in strategy:These changes usually occur when the current strategy is not working. While it may be necessary, it often indicates subpar management performance. It also establishes new sources of risk and uncertainty. With the current strength and opportunities in the industry today, it is simply not necessary to put money in a company with these negatives. Canopy Growth (CGC) is one example. Canopy may end up being very successful, but given the turmoil it has experienced over two years there are numerous companies offering similar potential rewards for less risk.\nSumming up\nCannabis investors are in a good place. The initial irrational exuberance and capitulation are history, and we are now in a strong, uptrending market. Industry fundamentals are very bullish, as they have been during the last two years of market turmoil. Virtually every trend is pushing the industry forward. Potential pitfalls such as undiscovered health issues and a general market decline must be acknowledged, but they are currently in the background\nFortunately, it is becoming clearer which companies will be successful, and long-term investors can have more confidence that their choices will pay off. The recent runup in prices, on the order of 300% or more in some companies, makes decisions for the shorter term more problematic, which is why investing in increments is recommended.\nAs the number of ETFs rises there are more opportunities for investors who prefer this lower risk and lower maintenance approach. It is an exciting time to be involved in the still-emerging cannabis industry.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}