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BlankTrader

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- BlankTraderBlankTrader
  ·2022-01-14
  Kk
  Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday
  U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Friday as big lenders including JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kic
  Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday
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- BlankTraderBlankTrader
  ·2022-01-14
  If he doesn’t even trust his own price valuation toopen a short position I don’t trust it
  Palantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target
  SummaryI respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.Reader feedback is divided in
  Palantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target
  2.69K Comment
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- BlankTraderBlankTrader
  ·2021-06-27
  Agree
  Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price
  Summary Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i
  Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price
  2.40K 1
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- BlankTraderBlankTrader
  ·2021-06-27
  Wow
  Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.
  Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,wh
  Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.
  2.55K 1
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- BlankTraderBlankTrader
  ·2021-06-26
  Hm
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  1.41K Comment
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- BlankTraderBlankTrader
  ·2021-06-23
  Hold on pltr
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- BlankTraderBlankTrader
  ·2021-04-22
  $Viacom CBS(VIAC)$going up
  2.56K 1
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- BlankTraderBlankTrader
  ·2021-04-20
  In it long term ?
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- BlankTraderBlankTrader
  ·2021-04-20
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Hold strong, short attack on retail traders
  2.10K Comment
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- BlankTraderBlankTrader
  ·2021-04-13
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Holding
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Co</a> tumbled 3.0% in premarket trading on reporting weaker performance at its trading arm, even as it beat earnings expectations for the fourth quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo &amp; Co</a> , on the other hand, gained 1.8% after posting a greater-than-expected rise in fourth-quarter profit.</p><p>Asset manager <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock Inc</a> posted a fourth-quarter profit above estimates. 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JPMorgan shares fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>  – Wells Fargo gained 2.3% in the premarket after beating estimates on the top and bottom lines for the fourth quarter. Wells Fargo earned an adjusted $1.25 per share, 12 cents above estimates. Overall profit was boosted by the release of loan loss provisions and improving loan demand.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHW\">Sherwin-Williams</a> – The paint company’s stock fell 3.3% in premarket action after it cut its full year forecast amid supply chain issues that it expects to persist through the current quarter. Sherwin-Williams did say demand remains strong in most of its end markets.</p><p>Macau casino stocks –<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">Las Vegas Sands</a> ,,Melco Entertainment(MLCO) andMGM Resorts(MGM) rallied in premarket trading after Macau’s government said it would limit the number of casino licenses to six. 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Shares gained 1.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJ\">BJ&#39;s Wholesale Club Holdings Inc.</a>  – BJ’s shares lost 3% in premarket action after J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded the warehouse retailer’s stock to “underweight” from “neutral,” reflecting concerns about inflation and a pullback in stimulus measures for consumers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHC\">Bausch Health Companies Inc</a> – Bausch Health rallied 3.2% in the premarket following news that its Bausch + Lomb eyecare unit filed to go public and that the unit reported a jump in sales for the nine months ended in September. Bausch Health will remain a majority owner of Bausch + Lomb.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-14 21:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Friday as big lenders including JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kicked off the fourth-quarter earnings season with a mixed batch of results, while big technology companies extended declines after a bruising selloff.</p><p>At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 195 points, or 0.54%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 30.25 points, or 0.65% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 161.5 points, or 1.04%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb595de4e575fc2a7aa0d91e8ce48c2d\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co</a> tumbled 3.0% in premarket trading on reporting weaker performance at its trading arm, even as it beat earnings expectations for the fourth quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo &amp; Co</a> , on the other hand, gained 1.8% after posting a greater-than-expected rise in fourth-quarter profit.</p><p>Asset manager <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock Inc</a> posted a fourth-quarter profit above estimates. However, its shares fell 0.1%.</p><p>Year-over-year earnings growth from S&amp;P 500 companies was expected to be lower in the fourth quarter compared with the first three quarters but still strong at 22.4%, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>– BlackRock earned an adjusted $10.42 per share for the fourth quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $10.16, although revenue for the asset manager was slightly below forecasts. Assets under management rose above the $10 trillion mark for the first time.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a> – JPMorgan beat estimates by 32 cents with quarterly earnings of $3.33 per share, while revenue topped forecasts as well. The bank was helped by strong performance at its investment banking unit, but results at its trading operation slowed. JPMorgan shares fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>  – Wells Fargo gained 2.3% in the premarket after beating estimates on the top and bottom lines for the fourth quarter. Wells Fargo earned an adjusted $1.25 per share, 12 cents above estimates. Overall profit was boosted by the release of loan loss provisions and improving loan demand.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHW\">Sherwin-Williams</a> – The paint company’s stock fell 3.3% in premarket action after it cut its full year forecast amid supply chain issues that it expects to persist through the current quarter. Sherwin-Williams did say demand remains strong in most of its end markets.</p><p>Macau casino stocks –<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">Las Vegas Sands</a> ,,Melco Entertainment(MLCO) andMGM Resorts(MGM) rallied in premarket trading after Macau’s government said it would limit the number of casino licenses to six. These companies are among the six operating in Macau, with their current licenses due to expire this year. Las Vegas Sands rocketed 10.7%, Wynn surged 10%, Melco soared 12.9% and MGM added 4%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney</a>  – Disney lost 1.6% in premarket trading after Guggenheim downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “buy,” reflecting lowered predictions for Disney’s direct-to-consumer and parks businesses.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAM\">Boston Beer</a>  – Boston Beer tumbled 8% in the premarket after the brewer cut its annual earnings outlook. The company is being hit by supply chain issues as well as waning growth for its Truly hard seltzer brand.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc.</a>  – Virgin Orbit successfully launched seven small satellites Thursday, the first launch since the company went public last month. Shares gained 1.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJ\">BJ&#39;s Wholesale Club Holdings Inc.</a>  – BJ’s shares lost 3% in premarket action after J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded the warehouse retailer’s stock to “underweight” from “neutral,” reflecting concerns about inflation and a pullback in stimulus measures for consumers.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHC\">Bausch Health Companies Inc</a> – Bausch Health rallied 3.2% in the premarket following news that its Bausch + Lomb eyecare unit filed to go public and that the unit reported a jump in sales for the nine months ended in September. Bausch Health will remain a majority owner of Bausch + Lomb.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165442006","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Friday as big lenders including JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kicked off the fourth-quarter earnings season with a mixed batch of results, while big technology companies extended declines after a bruising selloff.At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 195 points, or 0.54%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 30.25 points, or 0.65% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 161.5 points, or 1.04%.JPMorgan Chase & Co tumbled 3.0% in premarket trading on reporting weaker performance at its trading arm, even as it beat earnings expectations for the fourth quarter.Wells Fargo & Co , on the other hand, gained 1.8% after posting a greater-than-expected rise in fourth-quarter profit.Asset manager BlackRock Inc posted a fourth-quarter profit above estimates. However, its shares fell 0.1%.Year-over-year earnings growth from S&P 500 companies was expected to be lower in the fourth quarter compared with the first three quarters but still strong at 22.4%, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:BlackRock– BlackRock earned an adjusted $10.42 per share for the fourth quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $10.16, although revenue for the asset manager was slightly below forecasts. Assets under management rose above the $10 trillion mark for the first time.JPMorgan Chase – JPMorgan beat estimates by 32 cents with quarterly earnings of $3.33 per share, while revenue topped forecasts as well. The bank was helped by strong performance at its investment banking unit, but results at its trading operation slowed. JPMorgan shares fell 2.7% in the premarket.Wells Fargo  – Wells Fargo gained 2.3% in the premarket after beating estimates on the top and bottom lines for the fourth quarter. Wells Fargo earned an adjusted $1.25 per share, 12 cents above estimates. Overall profit was boosted by the release of loan loss provisions and improving loan demand.Sherwin-Williams – The paint company’s stock fell 3.3% in premarket action after it cut its full year forecast amid supply chain issues that it expects to persist through the current quarter. Sherwin-Williams did say demand remains strong in most of its end markets.Macau casino stocks –Las Vegas Sands ,,Melco Entertainment(MLCO) andMGM Resorts(MGM) rallied in premarket trading after Macau’s government said it would limit the number of casino licenses to six. These companies are among the six operating in Macau, with their current licenses due to expire this year. Las Vegas Sands rocketed 10.7%, Wynn surged 10%, Melco soared 12.9% and MGM added 4%.Walt Disney  – Disney lost 1.6% in premarket trading after Guggenheim downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “buy,” reflecting lowered predictions for Disney’s direct-to-consumer and parks businesses.Boston Beer  – Boston Beer tumbled 8% in the premarket after the brewer cut its annual earnings outlook. The company is being hit by supply chain issues as well as waning growth for its Truly hard seltzer brand.Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc.  – Virgin Orbit successfully launched seven small satellites Thursday, the first launch since the company went public last month. Shares gained 1.1% in premarket trading.BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc.  – BJ’s shares lost 3% in premarket action after J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded the warehouse retailer’s stock to “underweight” from “neutral,” reflecting concerns about inflation and a pullback in stimulus measures for consumers.Bausch Health Companies Inc – Bausch Health rallied 3.2% in the premarket following news that its Bausch + Lomb eyecare unit filed to go public and that the unit reported a jump in sales for the nine months ended in September. Bausch Health will remain a majority owner of Bausch + Lomb.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005923306,"gmtCreate":1642150092084,"gmtModify":1676533686745,"author":{"id":"3575019409404952","authorId":"3575019409404952","name":"BlankTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee529534fc07f1ba05bacdda297a3cb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575019409404952","idStr":"3575019409404952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If he doesn’t even trust his own price valuation toopen a short position I don’t trust it","listText":"If he doesn’t even trust his own price valuation toopen a short position I don’t trust it","text":"If he doesn’t even trust his own price valuation toopen a short position I don’t trust it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005923306","repostId":"1189278661","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189278661","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642127310,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189278661?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-14 10:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189278661","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.Reader feedback is divided in","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>I respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.</li><li>Reader feedback is divided into four categories: valuation, company losses, moat, and scalability.</li><li>I stand by my assertion that Palantir is highly overvalued.</li></ul><p>My previous article on the big-data company <b>Palantir (PLTR)</b>created quite a stir. With over 700 comments and a significant amount of (negative) feedback, I believe it is appropriate to share my thoughts on some of the most important questions I have received in this article. In terms of disclosure, I do not have a short position in Palantir and do not intend to open one. I simply believe that the company&#39;s stock is difficult, if not impossible, to justify based on the company&#39;s financials.</p><p><b>My $5 Price Target For Palantir</b></p><p>In my previous article, &#34;Palantir: Fair Value Of $5,&#34; I claimed that the big-data company was fundamentally and unjustifiably overvalued. My reasoning was that a company that has been in business for as long as Palantir should have much better financials in place that look significantly better than what we see in the 10Q quarterly reports.</p><p>My main concern was Palantir&#39;s valuation, which requires buyers to pay a sales multiple of twenty. A P/E ratio of 20 would be considered high in normal and more sober times. Even allowing for Palantir&#39;s annual growth rate of 30%+, paying 20 times (expected) sales is still a bit of a stretch and requires a lot of faith that the sales growth will actually materialize. Even if it does, Palantir&#39;s valuation appears indefensible.</p><p>I&#39;d like to take this opportunity to address some of the feedback I received regarding the four areas where I received the most questions (valuation, company losses, moat and scalability).</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Many readers strongly disagreed with my assessment. The most common question I received centered on the idea that Palantir achieves significant revenue growth and that, as a result of this rapid growth, Palantir deserves a market capitalization of at least $10 billion.</p><p>This argument ignores the fact that, for valuation purposes, the size of the revenue base is just as important as the rate of sales growth. I also don&#39;t deny that Palantir&#39;s revenue is rapidly increasing. According to the company&#39;s long-term sales forecast, the company is aiming for a 30% annual growth rate. Palantir&#39;s outlook was confirmed in the company&#39;s most recent quarterly earnings report, and the company expects 40% growth this year.</p><p>Palantir is rapidly expanding, but the revenue base must be considered alongside the sales growth rate for any sense to be made. If I run a business with $1 million in annual sales and double my sales every year, that doesn&#39;t mean the company &#34;should be worth $10 billion.&#34; This conclusion cannot be reached without taking into account the dollar revenue base. While Palantir&#39;s revenue growth rate of 30% should not be overlooked, it is not 100%.</p><p>Palantir has a market capitalization of $34 billion, and the market expects revenue of $1.53 billion in 2021 and $1.99 billion in 2022. Here, the implied sales multiples are 22 (2021e) and 17 (2022e). Palantir&#39;s growth multiples are excessive and are at risk of further contraction. Paying around 20 times sales for a business, even if it is perfect, is more than a stretch; it may be a suicide mission.</p><p><b>IPO And Losses</b></p><p>In response to my previous article, I received a lot of feedback along the lines of &#34;Palantir is investing money, and this money will come back later in terms of free cash flow,&#34; or &#34;Palantir just had its IPO, and profits are not expected.&#34;</p><p>Both arguments, in my opinion, are flawed.</p><p>Palantir is not a young company that recently went public and is looking for capital to invest. Palantir has been in business since 2003 and has yet to make a profit. In fact, company insiders have taken advantage of the market&#39;s opportunity this year to sell a large number of Class A shares in 2021.This article, which is a must-read for any Palantir investor, delves deeper into the insider sales situation that has emerged this year.</p><p>In other words, insiders with equity stakes are cashing out by dumping shares on unsuspecting retail investors willing to pay 20 times sales for a loss-making company. That story has been told to me several times in my life.</p><p>Palantir is not only losing money this year, as I explained in my previous article. Throughout its existence, the big-data company has suffered losses and accumulated losses at an alarming rate. Palantir&#39;s losses in 2021 are &#34;only&#34; $364 million. The loss may be much lower than last year by the end of September, but it is still a loss.</p><p>And, in business valuation, profits/losses should be just as important as sales forecast, which, in most cases, is positive. The point that I believe was overlooked in my previous Palantir article is that the company has $5.3 billion in accumulated losses. Accounting rules require an accumulated deficit to appear on a company&#39;s balance sheet and is deducted from stockholders&#39; equity. It displays the total of a company&#39;s losses accumulated during its active period of operation. Palantir&#39;s accumulated deficits total $5.3 billion, compared to $7.6 billion in total paid-in capital. In layman&#39;s terms, Palantir has depleted 70% of its investor capital. That&#39;s a frightening figure.</p><p>Concerning the statement &#34;Palantir is investing in its growth and will recoup its investment later&#34;: Palantir has been stuck in this phase for nearly two decades, and the company is still not profitable. Shouldn&#39;t some of the money invested 10 or more years ago have already returned?</p><p>The magnitude of the company&#39;s accumulated deficit, as well as the incredibly long period of time, two decades, during which losses have accumulated, raise serious concerns about Palantir&#39;s capital allocation. How much credit would you or I qualify for if we went to a bank with a 20-year history of making business losses?</p><p><b>Moat</b></p><p>Questions have been raised about why I believe Palantir lacks a significant moat in its business, despite the fact that the company&#39;s clients include numerous government agencies. The implication here appears to be that Palantir&#39;s relationship network serves as a moat.</p><p>Palantir works with a number of cash-rich government agencies that use the company&#39;s technology platforms across the board. I don&#39;t deny that Palantir&#39;s platforms, or &#34;foundries,&#34; as the company refers to them, perform critical data management and analytics functions. Palantir was recently awarded contracts worth millions of dollars by the United States Army and the Space Systems Command. The Army contract is worth more than $800 million, while the Space Systems Command contract is worth $43 million.</p><p>That being said, I do not deny that Palantir has been successful in obtaining contract awards. What I mean is that Palantir must go through competitive processes in order to win bids. Contracts are not awarded based on Palantir&#39;s &#34;relationships&#34; with the government. To be honest, this would be illegal. As a result, the notion that the company&#39;s relationships aid Palantir in the construction of a moat is false.</p><p><b>Scalability</b></p><p>Some of the comments I received focused on Palantir&#39;s ability to capitalize on the big data revolution, as well as Palantir&#39;s scalability.</p><p>But where is this scalability, which is frequently mentioned as a reason to buy the stock?</p><p>Palantir has stated that it requires personnel to walk customers through the functionality of its foundries. Software that necessitates customer pilots is both time consuming and costly in terms of human resources. That is the inverse of &#34;scale.&#34;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64df144337f177af7f37125517af8d56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"143\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The ability to have decreasing marginal costs is a key feature of scalability. With a large enough customer base, marginal costs can be reduced to zero. This is not the case for Palantir, which must be available to clients to teach them the intricacies of the deployed platforms or walk them through new functionalities. Palantir, in my opinion, is more akin to an IT consulting firm that also sells software products. But I don&#39;t see real scalability with Palantir.</p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p>Palantir is not a profitable company. Palantir is heavily diluted. Insiders at Palantir are selling. Even with 30% annual revenue growth, Palantir&#39;s stock remains wildly overpriced.</p><p>High-multiple stocks, particularly in the technology sector, have recently begun to consolidate, and more downside is on the way as investors become less willing to pay top dollar for businesses that have flown high but failed to meet high expectations.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s valuation is a huge issue, and despite the fact that the big-data company operates in a sexy industry with a lot of hype, the business fundamentals simply do not justify Palantir&#39;s market price.</p><p><b>My Conclusion</b></p><p>I&#39;m not saying Palantir doesn&#39;t have significant annual sales growth. I&#39;m not saying Palantir&#39;s products are useless to the government. What I am saying is that Palantir&#39;s loss-making business does not merit a sales multiple of 20. Even if it was profitable, it wouldn&#39;t deserve this kind of sales multiple.</p><p>That&#39;s why I&#39;m sticking to my $5 price target for Palantir. A $5 price target implies a $10 billion market valuation and a sales multiple of 5, which is still more than generous. Due to the persistence of business losses, an earnings multiple is unfortunately inapplicable here. I believe that the majority of the feedback was well-intentioned, but the bull case still has some serious flaws.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-14 10:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479466-palantir-a-defense-of-my-5-price-target><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.Reader feedback is divided into four categories: valuation, company losses, moat, and scalability.I stand by my assertion that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479466-palantir-a-defense-of-my-5-price-target\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479466-palantir-a-defense-of-my-5-price-target","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189278661","content_text":"SummaryI respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.Reader feedback is divided into four categories: valuation, company losses, moat, and scalability.I stand by my assertion that Palantir is highly overvalued.My previous article on the big-data company Palantir (PLTR)created quite a stir. With over 700 comments and a significant amount of (negative) feedback, I believe it is appropriate to share my thoughts on some of the most important questions I have received in this article. In terms of disclosure, I do not have a short position in Palantir and do not intend to open one. I simply believe that the company's stock is difficult, if not impossible, to justify based on the company's financials.My $5 Price Target For PalantirIn my previous article, \"Palantir: Fair Value Of $5,\" I claimed that the big-data company was fundamentally and unjustifiably overvalued. My reasoning was that a company that has been in business for as long as Palantir should have much better financials in place that look significantly better than what we see in the 10Q quarterly reports.My main concern was Palantir's valuation, which requires buyers to pay a sales multiple of twenty. A P/E ratio of 20 would be considered high in normal and more sober times. Even allowing for Palantir's annual growth rate of 30%+, paying 20 times (expected) sales is still a bit of a stretch and requires a lot of faith that the sales growth will actually materialize. Even if it does, Palantir's valuation appears indefensible.I'd like to take this opportunity to address some of the feedback I received regarding the four areas where I received the most questions (valuation, company losses, moat and scalability).ValuationMany readers strongly disagreed with my assessment. The most common question I received centered on the idea that Palantir achieves significant revenue growth and that, as a result of this rapid growth, Palantir deserves a market capitalization of at least $10 billion.This argument ignores the fact that, for valuation purposes, the size of the revenue base is just as important as the rate of sales growth. I also don't deny that Palantir's revenue is rapidly increasing. According to the company's long-term sales forecast, the company is aiming for a 30% annual growth rate. Palantir's outlook was confirmed in the company's most recent quarterly earnings report, and the company expects 40% growth this year.Palantir is rapidly expanding, but the revenue base must be considered alongside the sales growth rate for any sense to be made. If I run a business with $1 million in annual sales and double my sales every year, that doesn't mean the company \"should be worth $10 billion.\" This conclusion cannot be reached without taking into account the dollar revenue base. While Palantir's revenue growth rate of 30% should not be overlooked, it is not 100%.Palantir has a market capitalization of $34 billion, and the market expects revenue of $1.53 billion in 2021 and $1.99 billion in 2022. Here, the implied sales multiples are 22 (2021e) and 17 (2022e). Palantir's growth multiples are excessive and are at risk of further contraction. Paying around 20 times sales for a business, even if it is perfect, is more than a stretch; it may be a suicide mission.IPO And LossesIn response to my previous article, I received a lot of feedback along the lines of \"Palantir is investing money, and this money will come back later in terms of free cash flow,\" or \"Palantir just had its IPO, and profits are not expected.\"Both arguments, in my opinion, are flawed.Palantir is not a young company that recently went public and is looking for capital to invest. Palantir has been in business since 2003 and has yet to make a profit. In fact, company insiders have taken advantage of the market's opportunity this year to sell a large number of Class A shares in 2021.This article, which is a must-read for any Palantir investor, delves deeper into the insider sales situation that has emerged this year.In other words, insiders with equity stakes are cashing out by dumping shares on unsuspecting retail investors willing to pay 20 times sales for a loss-making company. That story has been told to me several times in my life.Palantir is not only losing money this year, as I explained in my previous article. Throughout its existence, the big-data company has suffered losses and accumulated losses at an alarming rate. Palantir's losses in 2021 are \"only\" $364 million. The loss may be much lower than last year by the end of September, but it is still a loss.And, in business valuation, profits/losses should be just as important as sales forecast, which, in most cases, is positive. The point that I believe was overlooked in my previous Palantir article is that the company has $5.3 billion in accumulated losses. Accounting rules require an accumulated deficit to appear on a company's balance sheet and is deducted from stockholders' equity. It displays the total of a company's losses accumulated during its active period of operation. Palantir's accumulated deficits total $5.3 billion, compared to $7.6 billion in total paid-in capital. In layman's terms, Palantir has depleted 70% of its investor capital. That's a frightening figure.Concerning the statement \"Palantir is investing in its growth and will recoup its investment later\": Palantir has been stuck in this phase for nearly two decades, and the company is still not profitable. Shouldn't some of the money invested 10 or more years ago have already returned?The magnitude of the company's accumulated deficit, as well as the incredibly long period of time, two decades, during which losses have accumulated, raise serious concerns about Palantir's capital allocation. How much credit would you or I qualify for if we went to a bank with a 20-year history of making business losses?MoatQuestions have been raised about why I believe Palantir lacks a significant moat in its business, despite the fact that the company's clients include numerous government agencies. The implication here appears to be that Palantir's relationship network serves as a moat.Palantir works with a number of cash-rich government agencies that use the company's technology platforms across the board. I don't deny that Palantir's platforms, or \"foundries,\" as the company refers to them, perform critical data management and analytics functions. Palantir was recently awarded contracts worth millions of dollars by the United States Army and the Space Systems Command. The Army contract is worth more than $800 million, while the Space Systems Command contract is worth $43 million.That being said, I do not deny that Palantir has been successful in obtaining contract awards. What I mean is that Palantir must go through competitive processes in order to win bids. Contracts are not awarded based on Palantir's \"relationships\" with the government. To be honest, this would be illegal. As a result, the notion that the company's relationships aid Palantir in the construction of a moat is false.ScalabilitySome of the comments I received focused on Palantir's ability to capitalize on the big data revolution, as well as Palantir's scalability.But where is this scalability, which is frequently mentioned as a reason to buy the stock?Palantir has stated that it requires personnel to walk customers through the functionality of its foundries. Software that necessitates customer pilots is both time consuming and costly in terms of human resources. That is the inverse of \"scale.\"The ability to have decreasing marginal costs is a key feature of scalability. With a large enough customer base, marginal costs can be reduced to zero. This is not the case for Palantir, which must be available to clients to teach them the intricacies of the deployed platforms or walk them through new functionalities. Palantir, in my opinion, is more akin to an IT consulting firm that also sells software products. But I don't see real scalability with Palantir.RisksPalantir is not a profitable company. Palantir is heavily diluted. Insiders at Palantir are selling. Even with 30% annual revenue growth, Palantir's stock remains wildly overpriced.High-multiple stocks, particularly in the technology sector, have recently begun to consolidate, and more downside is on the way as investors become less willing to pay top dollar for businesses that have flown high but failed to meet high expectations.Palantir's valuation is a huge issue, and despite the fact that the big-data company operates in a sexy industry with a lot of hype, the business fundamentals simply do not justify Palantir's market price.My ConclusionI'm not saying Palantir doesn't have significant annual sales growth. I'm not saying Palantir's products are useless to the government. What I am saying is that Palantir's loss-making business does not merit a sales multiple of 20. Even if it was profitable, it wouldn't deserve this kind of sales multiple.That's why I'm sticking to my $5 price target for Palantir. A $5 price target implies a $10 billion market valuation and a sales multiple of 5, which is still more than generous. Due to the persistence of business losses, an earnings multiple is unfortunately inapplicable here. I believe that the majority of the feedback was well-intentioned, but the bull case still has some serious flaws.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124281885,"gmtCreate":1624767046147,"gmtModify":1703844786128,"author":{"id":"3575019409404952","authorId":"3575019409404952","name":"BlankTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee529534fc07f1ba05bacdda297a3cb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575019409404952","idStr":"3575019409404952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124281885","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184001921?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>\n <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>\n <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>\n <li>I hope you enjoy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p>\n<p>In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p>\n<p>Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p>\n<p>This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p>\n<p>But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Rule 1 Investing\n</blockquote>\n<p>This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p>\n<p>As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p>\n<p>And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p>\n<p>I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p>\n<p>Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p>\n<p>Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p>\n<p>For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p>\n<p>And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p>\n<p>Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p>\n<p>These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p>\n<p><b>Capital Allocation</b></p>\n<p>How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p>\n<blockquote>\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,\n <i>emphasis added</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p>\n<p>Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p>\n<p>Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p>\n<p>This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p>\n<p>Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p>\n<p>These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p>\n<p>Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p>\n<p>The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p>\n<p>\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p>\n<p>But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p>\n<p><b>Recap</b></p>\n<p>Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p>\n<p>But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p>\n<p>Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p>\n<p>Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3583568085402852","authorId":"3583568085402852","name":"IsaacYap90","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f66d0266826bb209ee22688d7bbde5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583568085402852","idStr":"3583568085402852"},"content":"In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning","text":"In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning","html":"In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124283240,"gmtCreate":1624767019680,"gmtModify":1703844785156,"author":{"id":"3575019409404952","authorId":"3575019409404952","name":"BlankTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee529534fc07f1ba05bacdda297a3cb6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575019409404952","idStr":"3575019409404952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124283240","repostId":"1104974895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104974895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624764940,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104974895?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104974895","media":"Barrons","summary":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,wh","content":"<p>Microsoft&nbsp;is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following&nbsp;Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.</p>\n<p>Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”</p>\n<p>Wall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.</p>\n<p>Ives sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e4bb0961389beaa2711931e02dc060\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"672\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a62e0638b1f4f9c28301e4d93721571\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"684\"></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 11:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.\nWedbush analyst Daniel Ives ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104974895","content_text":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.\nWedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.\nOn Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”\nWall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.\nIves sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3583568085402852","authorId":"3583568085402852","name":"IsaacYap90","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f66d0266826bb209ee22688d7bbde5","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583568085402852","idStr":"3583568085402852"},"content":"Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310.","text":"Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310.","html":"Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from 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