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stevenlsf

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- stevenlsfstevenlsf
  ·08-14
  $MXL 20260821 60.0 PUT$
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- stevenlsfstevenlsf
  ·06-23
  $DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL$
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- stevenlsfstevenlsf
  ·06-19
  $MXL 20260618 75.0 PUT$
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  ·06-19
  $美年健康(002044)$
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- stevenlsfstevenlsf
  ·06-13
  $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$
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  ·06-13
  $DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL$
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- stevenlsfstevenlsf
  ·2025-02-21
  Is it not so easy to have +\- 10% price change after release?
  Options Witch | Alibaba's Earnings Countdown: How to Use US Stock Options Strategies to Bet on Earnings?
  阿里巴巴将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。注意若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。
  Options Witch | Alibaba's Earnings Countdown: How to Use US Stock Options Strategies to Bet on Earnings?
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- stevenlsfstevenlsf
  ·2024-01-17
  $GLD 20240216 187.0 PUT$
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- stevenlsfstevenlsf
  ·2024-01-13
  Playing the game before closing
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- stevenlsfstevenlsf
  ·2024-01-12
  Just realized you can change to another town
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/MXL 20260821 60.0 PUT\">$MXL 20260821 60.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/MXL 20260821 60.0 PUT\">$MXL 20260821 60.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$MXL 20260821 60.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/74ca15b407dc4446064e94e9e9ae782a","width":"924","height":"1536"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/596739469013072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":578315890884920,"gmtCreate":1782215376768,"gmtModify":1782215603575,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574978909432524","idStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL\">$DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL\">$DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2510e96e62410efa39816a5bfaf08be3","width":"924","height":"1536"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/578315890884920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":576941860184872,"gmtCreate":1781879868371,"gmtModify":1781879870620,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574978909432524","idStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/MXL 20260618 75.0 PUT\">$MXL 20260618 75.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/MXL 20260618 75.0 PUT\">$MXL 20260618 75.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$MXL 20260618 75.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48fe5312da789e90c58c5c40e24626ea","width":"924","height":"1536"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/576941860184872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":576713304671016,"gmtCreate":1781824068685,"gmtModify":1781824071148,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574978909432524","idStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002044\">$美年健康(002044)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/002044\">$美年健康(002044)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$美年健康(002044)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba45891166400165adec85e873f72210","width":"924","height":"1536"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/576713304671016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":574860621021624,"gmtCreate":1781355091162,"gmtModify":1781355093656,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574978909432524","idStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DRAM\">$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DRAM\">$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/16075e3c37a84b2ee0bf18425ac1f2c3","width":"924","height":"1536"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/574860621021624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":574860419879248,"gmtCreate":1781355041686,"gmtModify":1781357556475,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574978909432524","idStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL\">$DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL\">$DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$DRAM 20260612 63.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/07d95fb5c0afdaa122b4f001703ab741","width":"924","height":"1536"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/574860419879248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":405983184327336,"gmtCreate":1740144877115,"gmtModify":1740144881150,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574978909432524","idStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it not so easy to have +\\- 10% price change after release?","listText":"Is it not so easy to have +\\- 10% price change after release?","text":"Is it not so easy to have +\\- 10% price change after release?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/405983184327336","repostId":"1143671283","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143671283","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1739943924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143671283?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-02-19 13:45","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Options Witch | Alibaba's Earnings Countdown: How to Use US Stock Options Strategies to Bet on Earnings?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143671283","media":"期权女巫","summary":"阿里巴巴将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。注意若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The company will release its results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 on February 20. Morgan Stanley sees this report as \"the first catalyst for examining AI investment trends in China\". Currently, market optimism about the development of generative AI in China continues to rise. JPMorgan Chase points out that the current AI-driven rise in Chinese tech stocks is more sustainable, while Alibaba, due to its investment in the AI field, is considered \"a more favorable stock for thematic investment in the development of generative AI in China at this stage.\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1732045492\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Investment banks collectively raised their expectations, and valuation recovery is expected.</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Several institutions have recently raised their ratings and target prices for Alibaba. Jefferies believes that the valuation of Chinese internet companies is low and at a discount compared to overseas peers. It has raised its target prices for Alibaba's US and Hong Kong stocks from US$150 and HK$145 to US$156 and HK$151 respectively. In its earnings forecast, UBS predicted that Alibaba's third-quarter revenue would increase by 5.5% year-on-year to RMB 274.557 billion, slightly lower than market expectations. However, it emphasized that if the macroeconomy stabilizes and competition eases, its valuation multiple is expected to be revised upward. The bank gave Alibaba a \"buy\" rating, with a target price of US$140 for the US stock (corresponding to HK$136 for the Hong Kong stock), implying a PE ratio of 18 times for fiscal year 2026.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2130808034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Stock Price and Options Market: Game under the Expectation of High Volatility</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As of Tuesday, Alibaba's U.S. stock was trading at $126.9, with a 52-week high of $129.50 and support at $120. The current implied volatility (IV) of stocks is as high as 57.67%, significantly higher than the historical average, reflecting market bets on sharp fluctuations in stock prices after earnings reports. Liquidity data shows that among the options expiring on March 21, the $120 Call and $105 Put options had the largest unliquidated positions, becoming the core points of the long-bear game.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3824503286\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Options Strategy: How to Bet on Earnings Reports?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Regarding Alibaba's financial report event, the following option strategies can be referenced:</p><p><h3 id=\"id_4263518916\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 1: Selling Puts (Cash-Secured Puts) may yield a steady premium.</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Construction method</strong>Sell one Put option expiring on March 21 with a strike price of $110, and receive approximately $1.50 per share from premium (premium earns $150 per contract).</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7513e63acdc82cbd21b1e6c4e2be9c8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1358\"/></p><p></li><li><strong>key parameters</strong></p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>earning</strong>If the stock price remains above $110, premium will become a net income, with an annualized return of approximately 13.66%.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Risk</strong>If the stock price falls below $110, you need to buy the stock at $110, reserve a margin of approximately $11,000 per contract, and the break-even point is $108.5 (110 - 1.5).</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Applicable scenarios</strong>This applies to those who are optimistic about Alibaba's long-term value, and Alibaba's US stock price will not fall below $110 by March 21.</p><p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_992055885\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 2: Bet on a stock price fluctuation of more than ±10% after the earnings report.</h3><h4 id=\"id_847364078\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Current stock price and volatility target</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Latest stock price</strong>: $126.9 (2025-02-19)</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>fluctuation target</strong>：±10%→<strong>Upside target $139.59</strong>，<strong>Downside Target $114.21</strong></p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_2388830395\">Strategy Selection: Long Strangle</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>logic</strong>By simultaneously buying out-of-the-money Call options (Call) and out-of-the-money Put options (Put), you can bet that the stock price will break through in either direction. This is suitable for scenarios where high volatility is expected and the direction is unclear.</p><p><h4 id=\"id_2718423894\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Specific contract selection and cost analysis</h4><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 CALL BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250228 120.0 PUT BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250228 133.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA Strap Type 250228 120P/133C$</a></p><p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Contract Direction</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Exercise Price (USD)</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Expiry Date</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Latest price (USD)</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Call option</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">133.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.05</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Put Options (Put)</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">120.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.75</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Total cost of strategy</strong>：4.05+2.75=<strong>$6.8/share</strong><br/><strong>break-even point</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>uphill</strong>：133.0+6.8=<strong>$139.8</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>downward</strong>：120.0-6.8=<strong>$113.2</strong></p><p></li></ul></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c3828594a796eebced7fb8561acc2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"1889\"/></p><p><h4 id=\"id_540280158\">Key Parameter Analysis</h4><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>volatility sensitivity</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The current implied volatility (IV) is 57.67%, which is at a high level. If volatility declines after the earnings report, the time value of options may decay rapidly, and attention should be paid to the impact of IV changes on strategies.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Delta and Probability</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Call option Delta = 0.381, implying a 38.1% probability that the stock price will expire above $133.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The put option's Delta = -0.289 implies a 28.9% probability that the stock price will expire below $120.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Call volume at $133 was low (194 lots), and we need to be wary of a widening bid-ask spread due to insufficient liquidity.</p><p></li></ul></li></ol><h4 id=\"id_1019840352\">attention</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If the stock price quickly breaks out in a certain direction after the earnings report, you can close your position immediately to lock in profits.</p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3040409986\">Risk Warning</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Maximum loss</strong>Limited to premium ($6.8 per share).</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility risk</strong>:IV A pullback could result in the strategy failing to meet expectations and resulting in losses.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>Low-volume contracts may be difficult to close in a timely manner.</p><p></li></ul></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Options Witch | Alibaba's Earnings Countdown: How to Use US Stock Options Strategies to Bet on Earnings?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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Morgan Stanley sees this report as \"the first catalyst for examining AI investment trends in China\". Currently, market optimism about the development of generative AI in China continues to rise. JPMorgan Chase points out that the current AI-driven rise in Chinese tech stocks is more sustainable, while Alibaba, due to its investment in the AI field, is considered \"a more favorable stock for thematic investment in the development of generative AI in China at this stage.\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1732045492\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Investment banks collectively raised their expectations, and valuation recovery is expected.</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Several institutions have recently raised their ratings and target prices for Alibaba. Jefferies believes that the valuation of Chinese internet companies is low and at a discount compared to overseas peers. It has raised its target prices for Alibaba's US and Hong Kong stocks from US$150 and HK$145 to US$156 and HK$151 respectively. In its earnings forecast, UBS predicted that Alibaba's third-quarter revenue would increase by 5.5% year-on-year to RMB 274.557 billion, slightly lower than market expectations. However, it emphasized that if the macroeconomy stabilizes and competition eases, its valuation multiple is expected to be revised upward. The bank gave Alibaba a \"buy\" rating, with a target price of US$140 for the US stock (corresponding to HK$136 for the Hong Kong stock), implying a PE ratio of 18 times for fiscal year 2026.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2130808034\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Stock Price and Options Market: Game under the Expectation of High Volatility</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">As of Tuesday, Alibaba's U.S. stock was trading at $126.9, with a 52-week high of $129.50 and support at $120. The current implied volatility (IV) of stocks is as high as 57.67%, significantly higher than the historical average, reflecting market bets on sharp fluctuations in stock prices after earnings reports. Liquidity data shows that among the options expiring on March 21, the $120 Call and $105 Put options had the largest unliquidated positions, becoming the core points of the long-bear game.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3824503286\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Options Strategy: How to Bet on Earnings Reports?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Regarding Alibaba's financial report event, the following option strategies can be referenced:</p><p><h3 id=\"id_4263518916\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 1: Selling Puts (Cash-Secured Puts) may yield a steady premium.</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Construction method</strong>Sell one Put option expiring on March 21 with a strike price of $110, and receive approximately $1.50 per share from premium (premium earns $150 per contract).</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7513e63acdc82cbd21b1e6c4e2be9c8f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1358\"/></p><p></li><li><strong>key parameters</strong></p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>earning</strong>If the stock price remains above $110, premium will become a net income, with an annualized return of approximately 13.66%.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Risk</strong>If the stock price falls below $110, you need to buy the stock at $110, reserve a margin of approximately $11,000 per contract, and the break-even point is $108.5 (110 - 1.5).</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Applicable scenarios</strong>This applies to those who are optimistic about Alibaba's long-term value, and Alibaba's US stock price will not fall below $110 by March 21.</p><p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_992055885\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategy 2: Bet on a stock price fluctuation of more than ±10% after the earnings report.</h3><h4 id=\"id_847364078\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Current stock price and volatility target</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Latest stock price</strong>: $126.9 (2025-02-19)</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>fluctuation target</strong>：±10%→<strong>Upside target $139.59</strong>，<strong>Downside Target $114.21</strong></p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_2388830395\">Strategy Selection: Long Strangle</h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>logic</strong>By simultaneously buying out-of-the-money Call options (Call) and out-of-the-money Put options (Put), you can bet that the stock price will break through in either direction. This is suitable for scenarios where high volatility is expected and the direction is unclear.</p><p><h4 id=\"id_2718423894\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Specific contract selection and cost analysis</h4><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 CALL BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250321 125.0 PUT BUY 1\" title=\" \" class=\"immutable-element\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BUYABUYA 20250228 120.0 PUT BUY 1 | BUYABUYA 20250228 133.0 CALL BUY 1\" title=\"$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  \" class=\"immutable-element\">$BABA Strap Type 250228 120P/133C$</a></p><p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Contract Direction</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Exercise Price (USD)</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Expiry Date</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Latest price (USD)</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Call option</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">133.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.05</p><p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Put Options (Put)</strong></p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">120.0</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025-02-28</p><p></td><td style=\"text-align:center;\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.75</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Total cost of strategy</strong>：4.05+2.75=<strong>$6.8/share</strong><br/><strong>break-even point</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>uphill</strong>：133.0+6.8=<strong>$139.8</strong></p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>downward</strong>：120.0-6.8=<strong>$113.2</strong></p><p></li></ul></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c3828594a796eebced7fb8561acc2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1159\" tg-height=\"1889\"/></p><p><h4 id=\"id_540280158\">Key Parameter Analysis</h4><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>volatility sensitivity</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The current implied volatility (IV) is 57.67%, which is at a high level. If volatility declines after the earnings report, the time value of options may decay rapidly, and attention should be paid to the impact of IV changes on strategies.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Delta and Probability</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Call option Delta = 0.381, implying a 38.1% probability that the stock price will expire above $133.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The put option's Delta = -0.289 implies a 28.9% probability that the stock price will expire below $120.</p><p></li></ul></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>：</p><p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Call volume at $133 was low (194 lots), and we need to be wary of a widening bid-ask spread due to insufficient liquidity.</p><p></li></ul></li></ol><h4 id=\"id_1019840352\">attention</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">If the stock price quickly breaks out in a certain direction after the earnings report, you can close your position immediately to lock in profits.</p><p></li></ul><h4 id=\"id_3040409986\">Risk Warning</h4><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Maximum loss</strong>Limited to premium ($6.8 per share).</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Volatility risk</strong>:IV A pullback could result in the strategy failing to meet expectations and resulting in losses.</p><p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Liquidity risk</strong>Low-volume contracts may be difficult to close in a timely manner.</p><p></li></ul></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143671283","content_text":"阿里巴巴 将于2月20日公布2025财年第三季度业绩，这份财报被摩根士丹利视为“审视中国AI投资趋势的首个催化剂”。当前，市场对中国生成式AI发展的乐观情绪持续升温。摩根大通指出，中国科技股此轮由AI驱动的上涨更具可持续性，而阿里巴巴因其在AI领域的布局，被视为“现阶段在中国生成式AI发展的主题投资方面更为有利的股票”。投行集体调高预期，估值修复可期多家机构近期上调对阿里的评级与目标价。杰富瑞认为中国互联网的估值偏低，较海外同业有折让，对阿里巴巴美股和港股目标价分别由150美元和145港元，升至156美元和151港元。瑞银则在财报前瞻中预测，阿里第三财季营收同比增长5.5%至2745.57亿元，略低于市场预期，但强调若宏观经济企稳、竞争趋缓，其估值倍数有望上修。该行给予阿里巴巴“买入”评级，美股目标价140美元（对应港股136港元）隐含2026财年PE 18倍。股价与期权市场：高波动预期下的博弈截至周二，阿里巴巴美股报126.9美元，52周高点为129.50美元，支撑位位于120美元。当前股票隐含波动率（IV）高达57.67%，显著高于历史均值，反映市场对财报后股价剧烈波动的押注。流动性数据显示，3月21日到期期权中，120美元Call和105美元Put未平仓量最大，成为多空博弈的核心点位。期权策略：如何押注财报行情？针对阿里财报事件，以下期权策略可参考：策略一：卖Put（Cash-Secured Put），或可稳健收获权利金构建方式：卖出1张3月21日到期、行权价为110美元的Put期权，收取权利金约1.5美元/股（每张合约权利金收益150美元）。‌关键参数收益：若股价始终高于110美元，权利金成为纯收入，卖出年化收益可达约13.66%。风险：若股价跌破110美元，需按110美元价格买入股票，预留保证金约11,000美元/合约，盈亏平衡点为108.5美元（110 - 1.5）。适用场景：适用于看好阿里巴巴长期价值，同时到3月21日，阿里巴巴美股股价不会跌破110美元。策略二：押注财报后股价有大于±10%的波动当前股价与波动目标最新股价：126.9美元（2025-02-19）波动目标：±10% → 上行目标139.59美元，下行目标114.21美元策略选择：宽跨式组合（Long Strangle）逻辑：通过同时买入虚值看涨期权（Call）和虚值看跌期权（Put），押注股价突破任一方向，适用于高波动预期且方向不明确的场景。具体合约选择与成本分析 ‌‌$BABA 勒束式 250228 120P/133C$  ‌合约方向行权价（美元）到期日最新价格（美元）看涨期权（Call）133.02025-02-284.05看跌期权（Put）120.02025-02-282.75策略总成本：4.05 + 2.75 = 6.8美元/股盈亏平衡点：上行：133.0 + 6.8 = 139.8美元下行：120.0 - 6.8 = 113.2美元关键参数解析波动率敏感性：当前隐含波动率（IV）为57.67%，处于较高水平。若财报后波动率回落，期权时间价值可能快速衰减，需关注IV变化对策略的影响。Delta与概率：看涨期权Delta=0.381，隐含股价到期在133美元以上的概率约38.1%。看跌期权Delta=-0.289，隐含股价到期在120美元以下的概率约28.9%。流动性风险：133美元Call交易量较低（194手），需警惕流动性不足导致的买卖价差扩大。注意若股价在财报后快速突破某一方向，可立刻平仓，以锁定收益。风险提示最大亏损：限于权利金（6.8美元/股）。波动率风险：IV回落可能导致策略未达预期即亏损。流动性风险：低交易量合约可能难以及时平仓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":263835595382840,"gmtCreate":1705448758381,"gmtModify":1705448761321,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574978909432524","idStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/GLD 20240216 187.0 PUT\">$GLD 20240216 187.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/GLD 20240216 187.0 PUT\">$GLD 20240216 187.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$GLD 20240216 187.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0440312d186215d4ba6fc9792cf590be","width":"972","height":"1630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/263835595382840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262569863684376,"gmtCreate":1705138018074,"gmtModify":1705138022735,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574978909432524","idStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Playing the game before closing&nbsp;","listText":"Playing the game before closing&nbsp;","text":"Playing the game before closing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262569863684376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262108430373072,"gmtCreate":1705026089903,"gmtModify":1705026094114,"author":{"id":"3574978909432524","authorId":"3574978909432524","name":"stevenlsf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14419aa004a7c969e6e9b710813353d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574978909432524","idStr":"3574978909432524"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just realized you can change to another town&nbsp;","listText":"Just realized you can change to another town&nbsp;","text":"Just realized you can change to another town","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262108430373072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}