Bull or Bear Market now?
@Obigoot：
Your portfolio thinks it’s diversified. Your risk budget knows better. Semiconductors are only ~13% of the global stock market by weight… …but they’re eating ~20% of the entire risk capital. Tech overall? 28% of the index, 40% of the risk. That’s not diversification. That’s a high-beta AI casino wearing a passive-index costume. Low vol made everyone lever up. VaR models said “more size, king.” Now any shock → first thing sold = the chips. Vol rises → more selling → more vol. Snowball goes brrr. Fundamentals can be fine. Positioning doesn’t care. When 1/5 of global risk lives in semis, every wiggle becomes a forced-liquidation party. Welcome to 2026: the market is a semiconductor ETF with extra steps. Manage the risk, or the risk manages you. Do not over leverage.