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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-26
Pls comment
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-24
Like and comment thanks
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-20
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-19
haiz
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-19
Pls like and comment
OPEC+ agrees to increase oil production, ending the current stalemate.
7月18日,在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后,欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示,该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日,直到所有闲置的产能都恢复,根据协议,阿联酋、伊拉克和
OPEC+ agrees to increase oil production, ending the current stalemate.
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-18
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-16
Ok
Foreign media headlines: The Federal Reserve ignores hot inflation! The market contains unexpected risks
全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有: 1、鲍威尔再次被追问通胀问题 称美联储正关注风险 2、El-Erian:美联储无视通胀火爆 将面临政策失误或市场意外风险 3、央行数字货币或对
Foreign media headlines: The Federal Reserve ignores hot inflation! The market contains unexpected risks
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
·
2021-07-15
Hi
The bull market window is about to close.
且行且珍惜
The bull market window is about to close.
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-14
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US inflation remains high, and the time has come to test the Federal Reserve.
美国6月物价再度爆表,美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚,以及货币政策将如何作出应对,成为市场关注的焦点。北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示,美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值,多项数据创新高。今年以来,美国通胀节节走高,但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”,随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求,通胀将消退。当地时间周三和周四,美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。
US inflation remains high, and the time has come to test the Federal Reserve.
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Tommyng97
Tommyng97
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2021-07-13
Ok
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allies agreed to gradually increase oil supplies to the market after Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved a dispute that had hindered an agreement. Representatives at the meeting stated that the organization will increase production by up to 400,000 barrels per day per month until all idle capacity is restored. Under the agreement, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait will receive higher production quotas starting in May 2022. The agreement will ease looming supply shortages and reduce the risk of rising oil prices. This also brought an end to a deadlock that had unsettled traders.</p><p>OPEC+ has agreed to a new baseline for crude oil production cuts in the UAE of 3.5 million barrels per day, which will take effect in May 2022.</p><p>Besides the UAE, other OPEC+ members are also expected to receive new production cut benchmarks, with Iraq and Kuwait each raising their production baselines by 150,000 barrels per day.</p><p>OPEC+ agreed to adjust benchmark oil production for Saudi Arabia and Russia from 11 million barrels per day to 11.5 million barrels per day, starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC+ also agreed to further ease production cuts starting in August, with the new crude oil production cut benchmark set to take effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC+ has reached an agreement on crude oil production, and the next OPEC+ meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the production cut agreement until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement indicates that OPEC+ plans to completely cancel the 5.8 million barrel/day production cut by September 2022, market conditions permitting.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC+ agrees to increase oil production, ending the current stalemate.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC+ agrees to increase oil production, ending the current stalemate.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 19:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 18, OPEC and its allies agreed to gradually increase oil supplies to the market after Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved a dispute that had hindered an agreement. Representatives at the meeting stated that the organization will increase production by up to 400,000 barrels per day per month until all idle capacity is restored. Under the agreement, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait will receive higher production quotas starting in May 2022. The agreement will ease looming supply shortages and reduce the risk of rising oil prices. This also brought an end to a deadlock that had unsettled traders.</p><p>OPEC+ has agreed to a new baseline for crude oil production cuts in the UAE of 3.5 million barrels per day, which will take effect in May 2022.</p><p>Besides the UAE, other OPEC+ members are also expected to receive new production cut benchmarks, with Iraq and Kuwait each raising their production baselines by 150,000 barrels per day.</p><p>OPEC+ agreed to adjust benchmark oil production for Saudi Arabia and Russia from 11 million barrels per day to 11.5 million barrels per day, starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC+ also agreed to further ease production cuts starting in August, with the new crude oil production cut benchmark set to take effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC+ has reached an agreement on crude oil production, and the next OPEC+ meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the production cut agreement until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement indicates that OPEC+ plans to completely cancel the 5.8 million barrel/day production cut by September 2022, market conditions permitting.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0e918dfd4ec815c4f78fc4cfc3ea3e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160796593","content_text":"7月18日,在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后,欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示,该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日,直到所有闲置的产能都恢复,根据协议,阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张,并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。\nOPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日,将于2022年5月开始生效。\n除了阿联酋,其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准,伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。\n欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始,将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。\nOPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产,新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。\n欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议,下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行,同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。\n欧佩克草案声明显示,欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前,在市场条件允许的情况下,全面取消580万桶/日的减产。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179244800,"gmtCreate":1626540410500,"gmtModify":1703761588666,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570854159723648","authorIdStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179244800","repostId":"1130243635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170187109,"gmtCreate":1626412770401,"gmtModify":1703759678064,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570854159723648","authorIdStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170187109","repostId":"2151575910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151575910","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626384989,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151575910?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 05:36","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines: The Federal Reserve ignores hot inflation! The market contains unexpected risks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151575910","media":"新浪财经","summary":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有:\n\n1、鲍威尔再次被追问通胀问题 称美联储正关注风险\n\n\n2、El-Erian:美联储无视通胀火爆 将面临政策失误或市场意外风险\n\n\n3、央行数字货币或对","content":"<p><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. Powell, pressed again about inflation, stated that the Federal Reserve is monitoring risks.</b><b>2. El-Erian: The Federal Reserve is ignoring hot inflation and faces policy mistakes or unexpected market risks.</b><b>3. Bitcoin accelerated its decline amid concerns that central bank digital currencies may pose competition to cryptocurrencies.</b><b>4. Declining US home sales and fierce competition among buyers have led to a scarcity of market inventory.</b><b>5. Federal Reserve's Evans: More progress on employment is needed before tapering.</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn Ark Fund to repeat the \"bull trap\" of the dot-com bubble era</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839101c234b07aa0606aef304368acf7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Powell, pressed again about inflation, stated that the Federal Reserve is monitoring risks.</b></p><p>Despite worrying levels of inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell defended his stance on maintaining policy easing for the second consecutive day.</p><p>He told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday: \"This shock to the system is related to the economic restart and has pushed inflation well above 2%, and of course we are uneasy about it.\"</p><p>Powell called the current price increase a “unique” phenomenon in history and said the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring whether its expectations of temporarily high inflation are correct and whether inflation is likely to last longer.</p><p>\"So we are trying to understand the basic situation and the risks,\" he said.</p><p>Powell stated that the price surge so far has mainly been in limited sectors such as used cars, reiterating that he expects these increases to be temporary.</p><p>“It’s temporary, and from that perspective, there’s no point in reacting to it,” he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034fc45bd0cb53c1c7b4b56d452cc8a7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>El-Erian: The Federal Reserve is ignoring hot inflation and faces policy mistakes or unexpected market risks.</b></p><p>Allianz's chief economic advisor, El-Erian, published a column stating that the rise in both the US CPI and PPI is a serious fact. It shows that the actual inflation rate is accompanied by additional inflation in the making. This contradicts the Federal Reserve's repeated view that inflation is temporary, especially now that the base effect has largely faded.</p><p>A key event this week was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional hearing on Wednesday, when he acknowledged that inflation had been higher than the Fed expected and had lasted longer. However, when discussing the policy impact, he immediately returned to the oft-repeated mantra of \"temporary\" in support of maintaining the policy stance. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams delivered a similar message on Monday, confirming that two of the three most influential Fed officials—and the policymakers the market is most concerned about—still prefer to maintain ultra-stimulus policies, despite repeated underestimates of economic growth and inflation.</p><p>El-Erian believes that the longer the Federal Reserve's current policy allocation continues, the greater the risk of monetary policy errors. The longer the economic-policy disconnect persists, the more risky the market will be, and the greater the risk of unexpected events.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0aeb4f41704121f0f395f77be2e94e0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Bitcoin accelerated its decline amid concerns that central bank digital currencies may pose competition to cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p>The prospects of cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have once again become the focus of attention. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized at this week's hearing that this needs to be done the right way. At the same time, the European Central Bank took a major step towards digital currencies, approving the digital euro project to enter the \"investigation phase,\" which could eventually lead to the digital euro being launched around mid-2021-2030.</p><p>\"As around the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Exploring the idea of digital currencies, investors realize that there is a lot of competition in the field. \"This could dilute the valuations of some of the digital assets currently in use,\" said Brian Vendig, president of MJP Wealth Advisors. \"Investors are weighing many factors, and digital assets may lose some of their luster due to their volatility.\"</p><p>The prospect of central banks developing digital currencies could put pressure on cryptocurrencies, a view shared by others. Susannah Streeter, senior investment and market analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: \"Cryptocurrencies are losing their advantage at a time when there is growing speculation about the impact of central banks launching digital currencies.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ae005dad5c04b425766f93266c60b9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Declining US home sales and fierce competition among buyers have led to a scarcity of inventory in the market.</b></p><p>In the most competitive real estate market in American history, sales began to stagnate.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDFN\">Redfin Corp.</a>Seasonally adjusted data shows that U.S. real estate transaction volume fell 1.2% month-on-month in June, the largest monthly decline since records began in 2012. Inventory has reached an all-time low, with an average of 14 days of listing being sold, the fastest pace ever.</p><p>Remote work, coupled with extremely low mortgage rates, has led to a large influx of buyers to the U.S. suburbs and affordable cities. The median home price in June rose 25% year-over-year to a record $386,888.</p><p>“We have entered a new phase in the housing market,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, in a statement. \"Price increases are beyond the affordability of many buyers.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d5a82b4786c64628f5a7379187ad40\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Federal Reserve's Evans: More progress needed on employment before tapering.</b></p><p>Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said Thursday that U.S. job growth fell short of his expectations and that the job market needs more improvement before the Federal Reserve begins to reduce its support for the economy.</p><p>Evans stated, \"Given that job growth has been lower than I expected in recent months, I would say that we still need to do more to reach the threshold of 'substantial further progress' in adjusting the monetary policy stance.\"</p><p>Evans said it would take \"more than a few months\" to determine the right time to reduce the number of codes.</p><p>On the issue of inflation, Evans said he has enough confidence that high inflation will be temporary. If inflation looks more persistent, the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its stance sooner.</p><p>Evans believes that the United States will see substantial further progress by the end of the year, but still believes that the Federal Reserve will rate hike in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deb2be8133054345917ff3f2e7aca29e\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn Ark Fund to repeat the \"bull trap\" of the dot-com bubble era</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Shawn Quigg believes that Cathie Wood's flagship ETF is showing a lot of bubble properties, similar to the growth stock fund of 2000, and investors should consider shorting it through options.</p><p>This derivatives strategist believes that a rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in the second half of the year could trigger...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>(Code ARKK) fell. The fund has risen about 19% since mid-May.</p><p>“Entering a bull market trap reversal,” Quigg wrote in a client report on Thursday. \"Potential rising yields could be a catalyst for accelerating ARKK's decline, coupled with large conventional tech stocks continuing to outperform disruptive tech stocks, prompting ARKK to enter a sell-off phase.\"</p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has fallen more than 40 basis points from its recent high at the end of March to around 1.32%, helping to drive the ARKK rebound. Quigg believes this is a technical market trend that will reverse as the economy reopens and trading regains its footing for the rest of the year.</p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines: The Federal Reserve ignores hot inflation! The market contains unexpected risks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines: The Federal Reserve ignores hot inflation! The market contains unexpected risks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-16 05:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. Powell, pressed again about inflation, stated that the Federal Reserve is monitoring risks.</b><b>2. El-Erian: The Federal Reserve is ignoring hot inflation and faces policy mistakes or unexpected market risks.</b><b>3. Bitcoin accelerated its decline amid concerns that central bank digital currencies may pose competition to cryptocurrencies.</b><b>4. Declining US home sales and fierce competition among buyers have led to a scarcity of market inventory.</b><b>5. Federal Reserve's Evans: More progress on employment is needed before tapering.</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn Ark Fund to repeat the \"bull trap\" of the dot-com bubble era</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839101c234b07aa0606aef304368acf7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Powell, pressed again about inflation, stated that the Federal Reserve is monitoring risks.</b></p><p>Despite worrying levels of inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell defended his stance on maintaining policy easing for the second consecutive day.</p><p>He told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday: \"This shock to the system is related to the economic restart and has pushed inflation well above 2%, and of course we are uneasy about it.\"</p><p>Powell called the current price increase a “unique” phenomenon in history and said the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring whether its expectations of temporarily high inflation are correct and whether inflation is likely to last longer.</p><p>\"So we are trying to understand the basic situation and the risks,\" he said.</p><p>Powell stated that the price surge so far has mainly been in limited sectors such as used cars, reiterating that he expects these increases to be temporary.</p><p>“It’s temporary, and from that perspective, there’s no point in reacting to it,” he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034fc45bd0cb53c1c7b4b56d452cc8a7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>El-Erian: The Federal Reserve is ignoring hot inflation and faces policy mistakes or unexpected market risks.</b></p><p>Allianz's chief economic advisor, El-Erian, published a column stating that the rise in both the US CPI and PPI is a serious fact. It shows that the actual inflation rate is accompanied by additional inflation in the making. This contradicts the Federal Reserve's repeated view that inflation is temporary, especially now that the base effect has largely faded.</p><p>A key event this week was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional hearing on Wednesday, when he acknowledged that inflation had been higher than the Fed expected and had lasted longer. However, when discussing the policy impact, he immediately returned to the oft-repeated mantra of \"temporary\" in support of maintaining the policy stance. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams delivered a similar message on Monday, confirming that two of the three most influential Fed officials—and the policymakers the market is most concerned about—still prefer to maintain ultra-stimulus policies, despite repeated underestimates of economic growth and inflation.</p><p>El-Erian believes that the longer the Federal Reserve's current policy allocation continues, the greater the risk of monetary policy errors. The longer the economic-policy disconnect persists, the more risky the market will be, and the greater the risk of unexpected events.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0aeb4f41704121f0f395f77be2e94e0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Bitcoin accelerated its decline amid concerns that central bank digital currencies may pose competition to cryptocurrencies.</b></p><p>The prospects of cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have once again become the focus of attention. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized at this week's hearing that this needs to be done the right way. At the same time, the European Central Bank took a major step towards digital currencies, approving the digital euro project to enter the \"investigation phase,\" which could eventually lead to the digital euro being launched around mid-2021-2030.</p><p>\"As around the world<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Exploring the idea of digital currencies, investors realize that there is a lot of competition in the field. \"This could dilute the valuations of some of the digital assets currently in use,\" said Brian Vendig, president of MJP Wealth Advisors. \"Investors are weighing many factors, and digital assets may lose some of their luster due to their volatility.\"</p><p>The prospect of central banks developing digital currencies could put pressure on cryptocurrencies, a view shared by others. Susannah Streeter, senior investment and market analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: \"Cryptocurrencies are losing their advantage at a time when there is growing speculation about the impact of central banks launching digital currencies.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ae005dad5c04b425766f93266c60b9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Declining US home sales and fierce competition among buyers have led to a scarcity of inventory in the market.</b></p><p>In the most competitive real estate market in American history, sales began to stagnate.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDFN\">Redfin Corp.</a>Seasonally adjusted data shows that U.S. real estate transaction volume fell 1.2% month-on-month in June, the largest monthly decline since records began in 2012. Inventory has reached an all-time low, with an average of 14 days of listing being sold, the fastest pace ever.</p><p>Remote work, coupled with extremely low mortgage rates, has led to a large influx of buyers to the U.S. suburbs and affordable cities. The median home price in June rose 25% year-over-year to a record $386,888.</p><p>“We have entered a new phase in the housing market,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, in a statement. \"Price increases are beyond the affordability of many buyers.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d5a82b4786c64628f5a7379187ad40\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Federal Reserve's Evans: More progress needed on employment before tapering.</b></p><p>Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said Thursday that U.S. job growth fell short of his expectations and that the job market needs more improvement before the Federal Reserve begins to reduce its support for the economy.</p><p>Evans stated, \"Given that job growth has been lower than I expected in recent months, I would say that we still need to do more to reach the threshold of 'substantial further progress' in adjusting the monetary policy stance.\"</p><p>Evans said it would take \"more than a few months\" to determine the right time to reduce the number of codes.</p><p>On the issue of inflation, Evans said he has enough confidence that high inflation will be temporary. If inflation looks more persistent, the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its stance sooner.</p><p>Evans believes that the United States will see substantial further progress by the end of the year, but still believes that the Federal Reserve will rate hike in 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deb2be8133054345917ff3f2e7aca29e\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists warn Ark Fund to repeat the \"bull trap\" of the dot-com bubble era</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Shawn Quigg believes that Cathie Wood's flagship ETF is showing a lot of bubble properties, similar to the growth stock fund of 2000, and investors should consider shorting it through options.</p><p>This derivatives strategist believes that a rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields in the second half of the year could trigger...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>(Code ARKK) fell. The fund has risen about 19% since mid-May.</p><p>“Entering a bull market trap reversal,” Quigg wrote in a client report on Thursday. \"Potential rising yields could be a catalyst for accelerating ARKK's decline, coupled with large conventional tech stocks continuing to outperform disruptive tech stocks, prompting ARKK to enter a sell-off phase.\"</p><p>The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond yield has fallen more than 40 basis points from its recent high at the end of March to around 1.32%, helping to drive the ARKK rebound. Quigg believes this is a technical market trend that will reverse as the economy reopens and trading regains its footing for the rest of the year.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-07-16/doc-ikqciyzk5721733.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-07-16/doc-ikqciyzk5721733.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151575910","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有:\n\n1、鲍威尔再次被追问通胀问题 称美联储正关注风险\n\n\n2、El-Erian:美联储无视通胀火爆 将面临政策失误或市场意外风险\n\n\n3、央行数字货币或对加密货币构成竞争 比特币在这种担忧中加速下跌\n\n\n4、美国住宅销量下滑 买家争抢导致市场存量稀缺\n\n\n5、美联储埃文斯:在减码之前需在就业方面取得更多进展\n\n\n6、摩根大通策略师警告Ark Fund重蹈网络泡沫时代的“牛市陷阱”\n\n\n鲍威尔再次被追问通胀问题 称美联储正关注风险\n尽管通胀达到令人不安的水平,美联储主席鲍威尔还是连续第二天为保持政策宽松的立场辩护。\n他于周四对参议院银行业委员会表示:“系统经受的这个冲击与经济重启有关,并使通胀率远超2%,当然我们对此感到不安。”\n鲍威尔将当前价格上涨称为史上“独特”现象,并表示美联储正密切观察其关于通胀暂时高企的预期是否正确,通胀是否可能持续更久。\n“所以我们正努力了解基本情形及风险,”他表示。\n鲍威尔表示,迄今为止价格飙升的主要是二手车等有限领域,重申他预计这些上涨是暂时的。\n“这是暂时的,就这个角度而言,对此作出反应没有意义,”他说道。\n\nEl-Erian:美联储无视通胀火爆 将面临政策失误或市场意外风险\n安联首席经济顾问El-Erian发表专栏文章称,美国CPI和PPI双双走高是严重的事实。它表明,实际发生的通胀率正伴随着酝酿中的额外通胀率。这有悖于美联储一再认为通胀是暂时的观点,尤其是在基数效应已经基本淡出的情况下。\n本周的一个重要事件是美联储主席鲍威尔周三的国会听证会,当时他承认通胀一直高于美联储预期,并且持续时间更长。然而,在谈到政策影响时,他立即回到了经常重复的“暂时性”口头禅,以支持政策立场不变。纽约联邦储备银行行长John Williams周一传递了类似的信息,证实了三位最有影响力美联储官员中的两位--这也是市场最为关注的决策者--仍然倾向于维持超刺激性政策,尽管经济增速和通胀一再被低估。\nEl-Erian认为,美联储当前政策配置持续的时间越长,货币政策出现失误的风险就越大。而经济-政策脱节持续的时间越长,市场中的冒险行为就会越多,出现意外的风险也就越大。\n\n央行数字货币或对加密货币构成竞争 比特币在这种担忧中加速下跌\n加密货币和央行数字货币(CBDC)前景再度成为关注焦点。美联储主席鲍威尔在本周听证会上强调,需要以正确方式做这件事。与此同时,欧洲央行向数字货币迈出重大一步,批准数字欧元项目进入“调查阶段”,这可能最终使数字欧元在2021-2030年中期左右落地。\n“随着世界各地中央银行探讨数字货币的想法,投资者意识到该领域存在很多竞争。这可能会稀释目前使用的一些数字资产的估值,”MJP Wealth Advisors总裁 Brian Vendig表示。“投资者正在权衡很多因素,数字资产可能因其不稳定性而失去一些光芒。”\n央行开发数字货币的前景可能给加密货币带来压力,这个观点得到了其他人赞同。Hargreaves Lansdown高级投资和市场分析师 Susannah Streeter表示:“加密货币失去优势正值人们对各央行推出数字货币的影响抱有越来越多猜测。”\n\n美国住宅销量下滑 买家争抢导致市场存量稀缺\n在美国历史上竞争最激烈的房地产市场,销售开始停滞。\nRedfin Corp.的季节性因素调整后数据显示,美国6月份房产交易量环比下降1.2%,是2012年有记录以来最大同期月度降幅。库存达到历史最低,平均挂牌14天即售出,是有史以来最快速度。\n远程工作加上极低的抵押贷款利率,令大量买家涌向美国郊区和房价实惠的城市。6月房价中值较上年同期上涨25%,达到创纪录的386,888美元。\n“我们进入了房地产市场的新阶段,”Redfin首席经济学家Daryl Fairweather在一份公告中说。“价格上涨超出了许多买家的承受能力。”\n\n美联储埃文斯:在减码之前需在就业方面取得更多进展\n芝加哥联邦储备银行行长查尔斯-埃文斯(Charles Evans)周四表示,美国就业增长低于他的预期,在美联储开始减少对经济的支持之前,就业市场还需要更多的改善。\n埃文斯称:“鉴于最近几个月就业增长低于我的预期,我要说的是,我们还需要做更多的事情,才能达到调整货币政策立场的‘实质性的进一步进展’的门槛。”\n埃文斯表示,需要“几个月多”的时间来确定减码的合适时机。\n在通胀问题上,埃文斯表示,他有足够的信心,认为高通胀将是暂时的。如果通胀看起来更持久,那么美联储可能需要早些调整立场。\n埃文斯认为,美国将在年底前看到实质性的进一步进展,仍认为美联储将于2024年加息。\n\n摩根大通策略师警告Ark Fund重蹈网络泡沫时代的“牛市陷阱”\n摩根大通的Shawn Quigg认为,Cathie Wood的旗舰ETF正在显示出很多泡沫性质,类似于2000年的增长股基金,投资者应考虑通过期权做空它。\n这位衍生品策略师认为,美国国债收益率下半年的上升可能会触发ARK Innovation ETF(代码ARKK)下跌。该基金自5月中旬以来已上涨约19%。\n“进入牛市陷阱逆转,”Quigg在周四的客户报告中写道。“潜在的收益率上升可能是加速ARKK下跌的催化剂,加上大型常规性科技股继续跑赢破坏性科技股,促使ARKK进入抛售阶段。”\n美国10年期国债收益率已经从3月底的近期高点下跌逾40个基点,至1.32%左右,帮助推动了ARKK的反弹。Quigg认为这是一个技术性行情,随着经济重开交易在今年余下时间里重新立足,上述行情将逆转。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147870589,"gmtCreate":1626353164641,"gmtModify":1703758460728,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570854159723648","authorIdStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147870589","repostId":"2151217519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151217519","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626315521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151217519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 10:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The bull market window is about to close.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151217519","media":"格隆汇","summary":"且行且珍惜","content":"<p>The chairman of the Federal Reserve has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>However, economic data is constantly betting on the other side.</p><p>On July 13 local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in June, both significantly exceeding market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, respectively, and marking the highest level since November 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even taking into account the low base caused by the pandemic last year, the deterioration in inflation data is still visible, with the core CPI rising by as much as 4.5% year-on-year after excluding volatile food and energy prices. However, thanks to previous preparations, the capital market's reaction has become increasingly calm. Last night, the three major US stock indices only fell slightly by about 0.3%, while US Treasury bonds and gold did not fluctuate much.</p><p>Whether the market continues to believe Powell's arguments or not, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing stimulating the economy is becoming increasingly intense for the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>Although it is too early to talk about rate hike, it is appropriate to start talking about scaling back bond purchases.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>When will Taper, who has been calling for months, come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at \"expectation adjustment,\" releasing signals to the market from time to time, whether hawkish or dovish. It can give investors ample time to take precautions and hedge. After several rounds, the number of people betting on policy decreased by more than half, and the Federal Reserve's turning point became much smoother.</p><p>Since the US CPI crossed the 2% safe boundary in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will Taper its bond purchases (Taper) or even rate hike this year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, and short-term inflation is tolerable until these two goals are achieved, it cannot be ruled out that persistently high inflation will change the FED's attitude.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Federal Reserve's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this, and whether or not immediate action is needed no longer depends on the magnitude of inflationary pressure, but on how the Federal Reserve judges it.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy report released on July 9, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, with the surge in labor demand outpacing the recovery in labor supply. Supply chain bottlenecks have eased somewhat, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories indicate that supply chain pressures remain considerable.</p><p>Regardless of the statements made by Federal Reserve officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four. Four consecutive months of inflation data have continuously pushed forward the market's expected inflection point. If the PPI data released next also far exceeds expectations, the pressure on the production side will continue to be transmitted to the consumer side, which will further deepen market concerns and bring forward the expectation of exit actions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the widely accepted view is that the Federal Reserve will signal a tapering of bond purchases at its annual Jackson Hole symposium in August. Federal Reserve officials and institutions are expected to primarily hint and leak information, with predictions for when it will be implemented focusing on the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Prior to this, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may still be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is certain that the global liquidity turning point will eventually arrive.</p><p><b>At this critical juncture, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio again, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trends, the reasons make perfect sense.</b></p><p>Due to the significant recovery gaps among countries during last year's pandemic, China's rapid recovery, coupled with its large and well-developed manufacturing supply capacity, has benefited from a wave of foreign trade dividends, and its rapid economic growth is precisely due to a large number of overseas export orders. However, with the control of the epidemic and the increase in vaccination rates in developed countries in the US and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to flow back, and foreign trade demand for China will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months shows that while the global manufacturing PMI is strengthening, China's new export orders have declined significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this backdrop, it has become a consensus that the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing, and the return of monetary easing is precisely to offset this impact in advance.</p><p>However, over the past 10 years, the average interest rate differential between China and the United States has been 133 basis points. Last September, the interest rate differential between China and the United States was 235 basis points, while now it is only 155 basis points. From this perspective, the room for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States begins to tighten monetary policy, the room for flexibility will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, the mismatch between Chinese and American monetary policies has raised new concerns in the market: how much room for maneuver and adjustment do we still have?</p><p>However, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, expressed his views yesterday.<b>He believes that discussions about the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy will have little impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Has the ten-year pursuit of monetary independence come true?</b></h3>Let's look back at what has happened in the past 20 years.</p><p>After joining the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence between China and the United States deepened, and everything seemed to be developing in a positive direction. China's GDP growth rate exceeded 10% year after year, making it a veritable world factory. The United States was also able to continue to play in finance and real estate.</p><p>However, in 2008, it all came to an abrupt end.</p><p>The United States experienced a severe financial crisis that quickly swept the globe, and China also suffered greatly, rushing to launch a \"four trillion yuan\" market rescue plan. This has led to a \"crack\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what went wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>The United States believes that after China joined the WTO, it relocated its own manufacturing industry more recklessly. The emptiness of the real economy led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially the financial sector, which was the root of the crisis. Therefore, Obama shouted the banner of returning manufacturing.</p><p>China, on the other hand, takes a more nuanced stance. The United States relies excessively on the dollar's status and debt expansion to develop its economy, which determines that the dollar's cyclical fluctuations will be quite drastic. However, the United States can use the global market to hedge against dollar fluctuations, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those deeply tied to the United States. Their monetary policies can only passively follow suit. They do well when the dollar expands, but when the dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a sharp economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed years of WTO benefits and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy.\" When the economic crisis arrived, demand from Europe and the United States declined rapidly, foreign trade plummeted, and a large number of export manufacturing industries collapsed, leading to a rapid increase in the unemployed population. This is precisely the manifestation of this.</p><p><b>In a country as large and populous as China, stability is of paramount importance.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China also began a series of adjustments, the most important of which was to follow its own path. To put it more bluntly, it was to find a way to break free from the precedent of being overly tied to the United States.</p><p>As for specific approaches, the Belt and Road Initiative is one example, infrastructure + real estate is another, shifting from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is another example, and there are also...<b>Adjustments to monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to experiment with directly using the RMB for settlement in foreign trade with some neighboring countries, which led to a rapid increase in the international use of the RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan, but in 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, the \"811 Exchange Rate Reform\" changed the RMB from being pegged to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving them corresponding weights, and forming a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, changes in the RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and forming a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it has shifted from \"single anchor\" to \"multiple anchors\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a considerable price. For example, after the \"811 exchange rate reform,\" the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly. Coupled with loopholes in foreign exchange controls, countless companies took advantage of these loopholes to continuously arbitrage foreign exchange and export overseas, resulting in a loss of $900 billion in foreign exchange reserves for China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, however, the results have been significant. At the very least, China has gradually demonstrated its autonomy and independence in choosing its monetary policy. This may be the source of Director Sun's confidence.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What will the mismatch between the Chinese and American currencies bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered a rate hike cycle, almost all emerging economies were wiped out, and some countries suffered particularly severely. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey all depreciated to record lows, and Brazil's GDP experienced the largest decline in history.</p><p><b>Because the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the initiative and took proactive measures, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar was low among emerging markets, thus avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In terms of monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the US, and Europe tended to be synchronized; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the People's Bank of China moved away from the pace of the US and Europe, taking the lead in both monetary easing and monetary policy.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held nine joint rate hike, with Federal Funds rate increasing the rate to 2.25%-2.50%. Meanwhile, China was cutting interest rates. On March 1, May 11, June 28, and August 26, 2015, the benchmark one-year loan rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the benchmark one-year deposit rate was also lowered multiple times by 0.25 percentage points, to 1.75%. The benchmark interest rates for other loans and deposits, as well as the interest rates for personal housing provident fund deposits and loans, will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve again introduced massive monetary easing, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches were not deliberate pursuits, but rather decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it needed to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, it replaced the old path of relying solely on monetary stimulus with export dividends through rapid epidemic prevention and control. This reserve requirement ratio cut is quite similar to that of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely disregarding the Federal Reserve. After all, the engine of the global economy is still the United States, and it is precisely we who want to strike a balance between the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with issues such as the pressure of RMB depreciation and capital outflows if the Federal Reserve tightens liquidity significantly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expect. Externally, we face the risk of reduced exports, and on the monetary side, we need to worry about the pressure brought about by the Federal Reserve's monetary turning point. The window for relatively loose liquidity is limited. Domestically, investment momentum is insufficient, and the domestic economic cycle driven by high hopes for consumption has not yet achieved significant results. Once liquidity tightens, many small and medium-sized enterprises will face the same situation of tight demand and liquidity as last year.</p><p>Under a combination of internal and external pressures, the central bank's next most likely monetary policy action is not to ease liquidity or join the ranks of significant tightening, but rather to control overall quantity, adjust structures, provide targeted guidance, and strictly control the idle circulation of regulatory funds, truly guiding liquidity to where it should go, such as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and people's livelihoods.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovative Technology</a>In areas such as green economy.</p><p>The government now has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and the consumer economy, and the momentum is very strong. Therefore, we can also imagine that any obstacles that hinder the achievement of this goal will continue to be suppressed and eliminated, such as real estate speculation, anti-monopoly, education, healthcare, and so on.</p><p>However, in either case, the situation for the capital market may not be very optimistic.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>Stock prices depend on the industry in the long run, fundamentals in the medium term, and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to now, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and the A-share market has also shifted from broad-based gains to divergence and consolidation.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the chart below—divergence—is happening. If monetary policy really tightens in the future, then the fourth quadrant—the widespread devastation of the capital market—will most likely repeat itself, but the question is to what extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When making investments, we should be willing to decide whether to stay or leave based on the worst-case scenario, and listen to thunderclaps in silence.</p><p>As for those investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunities may not be much longer.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market window is about to close.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market window is about to close.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 10:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The chairman of the Federal Reserve has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>However, economic data is constantly betting on the other side.</p><p>On July 13 local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in June, both significantly exceeding market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, respectively, and marking the highest level since November 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even taking into account the low base caused by the pandemic last year, the deterioration in inflation data is still visible, with the core CPI rising by as much as 4.5% year-on-year after excluding volatile food and energy prices. However, thanks to previous preparations, the capital market's reaction has become increasingly calm. Last night, the three major US stock indices only fell slightly by about 0.3%, while US Treasury bonds and gold did not fluctuate much.</p><p>Whether the market continues to believe Powell's arguments or not, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing stimulating the economy is becoming increasingly intense for the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>Although it is too early to talk about rate hike, it is appropriate to start talking about scaling back bond purchases.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>When will Taper, who has been calling for months, come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at \"expectation adjustment,\" releasing signals to the market from time to time, whether hawkish or dovish. It can give investors ample time to take precautions and hedge. After several rounds, the number of people betting on policy decreased by more than half, and the Federal Reserve's turning point became much smoother.</p><p>Since the US CPI crossed the 2% safe boundary in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will Taper its bond purchases (Taper) or even rate hike this year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, and short-term inflation is tolerable until these two goals are achieved, it cannot be ruled out that persistently high inflation will change the FED's attitude.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Federal Reserve's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this, and whether or not immediate action is needed no longer depends on the magnitude of inflationary pressure, but on how the Federal Reserve judges it.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy report released on July 9, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, with the surge in labor demand outpacing the recovery in labor supply. Supply chain bottlenecks have eased somewhat, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories indicate that supply chain pressures remain considerable.</p><p>Regardless of the statements made by Federal Reserve officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four. Four consecutive months of inflation data have continuously pushed forward the market's expected inflection point. If the PPI data released next also far exceeds expectations, the pressure on the production side will continue to be transmitted to the consumer side, which will further deepen market concerns and bring forward the expectation of exit actions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the widely accepted view is that the Federal Reserve will signal a tapering of bond purchases at its annual Jackson Hole symposium in August. Federal Reserve officials and institutions are expected to primarily hint and leak information, with predictions for when it will be implemented focusing on the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Prior to this, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may still be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is certain that the global liquidity turning point will eventually arrive.</p><p><b>At this critical juncture, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio again, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trends, the reasons make perfect sense.</b></p><p>Due to the significant recovery gaps among countries during last year's pandemic, China's rapid recovery, coupled with its large and well-developed manufacturing supply capacity, has benefited from a wave of foreign trade dividends, and its rapid economic growth is precisely due to a large number of overseas export orders. However, with the control of the epidemic and the increase in vaccination rates in developed countries in the US and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to flow back, and foreign trade demand for China will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months shows that while the global manufacturing PMI is strengthening, China's new export orders have declined significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this backdrop, it has become a consensus that the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing, and the return of monetary easing is precisely to offset this impact in advance.</p><p>However, over the past 10 years, the average interest rate differential between China and the United States has been 133 basis points. Last September, the interest rate differential between China and the United States was 235 basis points, while now it is only 155 basis points. From this perspective, the room for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States begins to tighten monetary policy, the room for flexibility will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, the mismatch between Chinese and American monetary policies has raised new concerns in the market: how much room for maneuver and adjustment do we still have?</p><p>However, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, expressed his views yesterday.<b>He believes that discussions about the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy will have little impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Has the ten-year pursuit of monetary independence come true?</b></h3>Let's look back at what has happened in the past 20 years.</p><p>After joining the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence between China and the United States deepened, and everything seemed to be developing in a positive direction. China's GDP growth rate exceeded 10% year after year, making it a veritable world factory. The United States was also able to continue to play in finance and real estate.</p><p>However, in 2008, it all came to an abrupt end.</p><p>The United States experienced a severe financial crisis that quickly swept the globe, and China also suffered greatly, rushing to launch a \"four trillion yuan\" market rescue plan. This has led to a \"crack\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what went wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>The United States believes that after China joined the WTO, it relocated its own manufacturing industry more recklessly. The emptiness of the real economy led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially the financial sector, which was the root of the crisis. Therefore, Obama shouted the banner of returning manufacturing.</p><p>China, on the other hand, takes a more nuanced stance. The United States relies excessively on the dollar's status and debt expansion to develop its economy, which determines that the dollar's cyclical fluctuations will be quite drastic. However, the United States can use the global market to hedge against dollar fluctuations, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those deeply tied to the United States. Their monetary policies can only passively follow suit. They do well when the dollar expands, but when the dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a sharp economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed years of WTO benefits and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy.\" When the economic crisis arrived, demand from Europe and the United States declined rapidly, foreign trade plummeted, and a large number of export manufacturing industries collapsed, leading to a rapid increase in the unemployed population. This is precisely the manifestation of this.</p><p><b>In a country as large and populous as China, stability is of paramount importance.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China also began a series of adjustments, the most important of which was to follow its own path. To put it more bluntly, it was to find a way to break free from the precedent of being overly tied to the United States.</p><p>As for specific approaches, the Belt and Road Initiative is one example, infrastructure + real estate is another, shifting from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is another example, and there are also...<b>Adjustments to monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to experiment with directly using the RMB for settlement in foreign trade with some neighboring countries, which led to a rapid increase in the international use of the RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan, but in 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, the \"811 Exchange Rate Reform\" changed the RMB from being pegged to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving them corresponding weights, and forming a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, changes in the RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and forming a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it has shifted from \"single anchor\" to \"multiple anchors\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a considerable price. For example, after the \"811 exchange rate reform,\" the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly. Coupled with loopholes in foreign exchange controls, countless companies took advantage of these loopholes to continuously arbitrage foreign exchange and export overseas, resulting in a loss of $900 billion in foreign exchange reserves for China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, however, the results have been significant. At the very least, China has gradually demonstrated its autonomy and independence in choosing its monetary policy. This may be the source of Director Sun's confidence.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What will the mismatch between the Chinese and American currencies bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered a rate hike cycle, almost all emerging economies were wiped out, and some countries suffered particularly severely. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey all depreciated to record lows, and Brazil's GDP experienced the largest decline in history.</p><p><b>Because the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the initiative and took proactive measures, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar was low among emerging markets, thus avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In terms of monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the US, and Europe tended to be synchronized; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the People's Bank of China moved away from the pace of the US and Europe, taking the lead in both monetary easing and monetary policy.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held nine joint rate hike, with Federal Funds rate increasing the rate to 2.25%-2.50%. Meanwhile, China was cutting interest rates. On March 1, May 11, June 28, and August 26, 2015, the benchmark one-year loan rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the benchmark one-year deposit rate was also lowered multiple times by 0.25 percentage points, to 1.75%. The benchmark interest rates for other loans and deposits, as well as the interest rates for personal housing provident fund deposits and loans, will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve again introduced massive monetary easing, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches were not deliberate pursuits, but rather decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it needed to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, it replaced the old path of relying solely on monetary stimulus with export dividends through rapid epidemic prevention and control. This reserve requirement ratio cut is quite similar to that of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely disregarding the Federal Reserve. After all, the engine of the global economy is still the United States, and it is precisely we who want to strike a balance between the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with issues such as the pressure of RMB depreciation and capital outflows if the Federal Reserve tightens liquidity significantly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expect. Externally, we face the risk of reduced exports, and on the monetary side, we need to worry about the pressure brought about by the Federal Reserve's monetary turning point. The window for relatively loose liquidity is limited. Domestically, investment momentum is insufficient, and the domestic economic cycle driven by high hopes for consumption has not yet achieved significant results. Once liquidity tightens, many small and medium-sized enterprises will face the same situation of tight demand and liquidity as last year.</p><p>Under a combination of internal and external pressures, the central bank's next most likely monetary policy action is not to ease liquidity or join the ranks of significant tightening, but rather to control overall quantity, adjust structures, provide targeted guidance, and strictly control the idle circulation of regulatory funds, truly guiding liquidity to where it should go, such as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and people's livelihoods.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovative Technology</a>In areas such as green economy.</p><p>The government now has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and the consumer economy, and the momentum is very strong. Therefore, we can also imagine that any obstacles that hinder the achievement of this goal will continue to be suppressed and eliminated, such as real estate speculation, anti-monopoly, education, healthcare, and so on.</p><p>However, in either case, the situation for the capital market may not be very optimistic.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>Stock prices depend on the industry in the long run, fundamentals in the medium term, and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to now, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and the A-share market has also shifted from broad-based gains to divergence and consolidation.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the chart below—divergence—is happening. If monetary policy really tightens in the future, then the fourth quadrant—the widespread devastation of the capital market—will most likely repeat itself, but the question is to what extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When making investments, we should be willing to decide whether to stay or leave based on the worst-case scenario, and listen to thunderclaps in silence.</p><p>As for those investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunities may not be much longer.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a97a16afe8e75d415a74db18ceb0a4c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2151217519","content_text":"美联储主席不止一次地告诉世界,通胀是暂时的。\n不过,经济数据正在不断押注另一边。\n当地时间7月13日,美国劳工部公布的数据显示,6月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比增长5.4%,环比上涨0.9%,均大幅超出市场预期的5%、0.5%,同时创下1991年11月以来最高记录。\n\n即便考虑到去年疫情导致的低基数,通胀数据的恶化依然肉眼可见,剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比涨幅高达4.5%。但是,通过前几次的铺垫,资本市场的反应越来越平淡,昨晚美股三大指数只微跌0.3%左右,美债、黄金异动都不大。\n无论市场是否继续相信鲍威尔的论调,对美联储来说,通胀压力和货币宽松刺激经济的矛盾日益激烈。\n正如联储官员戴利所说,虽然现在谈论加息还为时过早,但开始谈论缩减购债是合适的。\n\n\n1\n喊了几个月的Taper,啥时候来?\n\n\n美联储很擅长做“预期调节”这件事,不定时地向市场释放信号,鹰派的、鸽派的,放风可以放足一年,给投资者充足的时间做预防和对冲。反复几次下来,和政策对赌的人少了一大半,美联储的拐弯就平滑了许多。\n从3月份美国CPI跨过2%的安全边界之后,押注美联储在年内将缩减购债规模(Taper)甚至加息的投资者越来越多。虽然鲍威尔的货币政策框架锚定的是经济和就业,这两个目标未完成前,短期通胀是可以被容忍的,但不排除持续过高的通胀改变FED的态度。\n不过,短期内马上改变美联储货币政策显然不太现实,毕竟事态已经这样了,需不需要立即采取行动就不再取决于通胀压力有多大,而是美联储如何判断。\n根据7月9日美联储发布的货币政策报告,美国经济正在强劲复苏,但是劳动力市场存在结构性问题,劳动力需求的激增超过了劳动力供应的复苏;供应链瓶颈有所缓解,但历史高位的订单积压和历史低位的客户库存表明供应链压力依然不小。\n无论美联储官员的表态如何,市场的预期不外乎以下4种。连续4个月的通胀数据,不断将市场的预期拐点向前移。如果接下来公布的PPI数据同样大超预期,生产端的压力继续向消费端传导,将会进一步加深市场的担忧,退出动作的预期也会继续提前。\n\n当前,比较受认可的观点是,美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔年度专题研讨会上抛出缩减购债信号。预期会先以暗示、放风为主,具体何时落地,联储官员和机构的预测集中在今年年底和明年年初。在此之前,7月底的FOMC会议或许会透露出一些关键信息。\n短期上或许还存在诸多不确定性,但远期上,所有人都确信,全球流动性拐点终将到来。\n在这个节骨眼上,国内央行却意外地再度降准,释放出约1万亿的流动性,但再看看目前的经济数据趋势,理由是很能说得通的。\n由于去年的疫情中各国存在较大的恢复差,中国的快速恢复,且庞大而完善的制造业供应能力,吃到一波外贸红利,经济快速增长正是得益于大量的海外出口订单。但如今,随着美欧发达国家疫情控制、疫苗接种率的提升,经济社会恢复正常,订单开始回流,对中国的外贸需求将出现明显的下降,近几个月的经济数据显示,全球制造业PMI景气走强的同时,中国新出口订单明显回落。\n\n在这个背景下,中国经济下行压力加大已成各方共识,货币重新偏向宽松,正是为了提前对冲这种影响。\n但过去10年,中美平均利差为133BP,去年9月中美利差为235BP,而现在只有155个BP,从这个角度看,宽松的空间已经大大缩减,一旦美国开始收水,货币政策的弹性空间就会变得狭窄很多。\n\n如今,中美货币政策的错配,又引发市场新的担忧,我们还有多大腾挪调配的空间?\n不过,昨日央行货币政策司司长孙国峰发表观点,他认为关于美联储货币政策转向的讨论对中国货币政策、金融市场的影响较小。\n这个底气从何而来?\n2\n十年货币独立性追求,成真了吗?\n我们不妨回顾一下过去20年发生的事情。\n2001加入世贸之后,中国和美国经济相互依存度加深,一切貌似都朝着美好的方向发展,中国GDP增速连年超过10%,成了名副其实的世界工厂,美国也得以继续玩金融,玩地产。\n但是,2008年,一切戛然而止。\n美国爆发了严重的金融危机,并且迅速席卷全球,中国也深受其害,急冲冲启动“四万亿”的救市计划。由此引发的,是中美双方合作关系的“裂痕”,其实双方都在反思,过去8年到底出了什么问题。\n美国认为中国加入世贸后,自己因为更肆无忌惮地移走自家的制造业,实体经济的空虚,导致虚拟经济,尤其是金融的过度膨胀,是危机的根源,所以奥巴马才喊出制造业回归的旗号。\n而中国,态度则更加微妙。美国过分依赖美元地位、债务扩张等方式发展经济,决定了美元的周期波动会比较剧烈,但美国能够利用全球去对冲美元的波动,其他国家则没有这个实力,尤其是深度跟美国绑定的国家,货币政策只能被动跟随,在美元扩张时日子过得不错,但是美元收缩时,常常伴随着剧烈的经济下行。金融危机前,中国享受了多年的世贸红利,并演变为引以为傲的“出口导向型经济”,经济危机来临,欧美需求快速下滑,外贸重挫,伴随而来的是大量出口制造业倒闭,失业人口迅速膨胀,正是这种体现。\n中国这样体型庞大、人口众多的国家,稳定比什么都重要。\n所以,在稳住经济形势之后,中国也开始了一系列的调整,其中最重要的一条,就是走自己的路,说得再直白一点,就是想办法从过度绑定美国的前车之鉴中抽身。\n至于具体的做法,一带一路算一个,基建+地产算一个,由出口依赖转向刺激内需也算一个,还有货币政策的调整。\n2009年,中国开始尝试跟周边一些国家做对外贸易上,直接使用人民结算,推动人民币的国际使用量迅速增加。2009年,人民币的外贸结算量只有几十亿元,2015年,首次突破10万亿元。\n2015年,“811汇改”,人民币从单一盯住美元,改为选择若干种主要货币,赋予相应的权重,组成一个货币篮子,同时,以市场供求为基础,参考一篮子货币计算人民币多边汇率指数的变化,维护人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基础稳定,形成有管理的浮动汇率制。\n简而言之,就是从“单锚”转向了“多锚”。\n在这个过程中,中国付出了不少代价,如“811汇改”后,人民币汇率快速贬值,加上外汇管制上的漏洞,无数企业利用这种漏洞,不断地套汇输出海外,中国损失了9000亿美元外汇储备。\n\n但总体上,收效还是很大的,起码,中国在货币政策的选择上,逐渐体现出了自主的独立性。这可能就是孙司长所言的底气。\n3\n中美货币的错配,带来什么?\n2015年下半年,美联储进入加息周期,新兴经济体几乎全军覆没,部分国家更是格外惨烈,巴西、南非和土耳其货币均贬至纪录低位,巴西 GDP 创史上最大降幅。\n由于“811”汇改抢占先机、主动防御,人民币兑美元汇率的贬值幅度在新兴市场中居于低位,避免了系统性风险的爆发。在货币政策上,中国也表现出了比以往更多的独立性。2008年之前,中美欧货币政策趋于同步;金融危机爆发后,中国央行的节奏脱离美欧的步伐,收放水都领先一步。\n如美联储从2015年12月到2018年12月,美联储共同加息9次,联邦基金利率加至2.25%-2.50%。而此时的中国,却在降息,2015年3月1日、5月11日、6月28日、8月26日,一年期贷款基准利率下调均下调0.25个百分点,由5.6%将至4.6%,一年期存款基准利率也多次下调0.25个百分点,至1.75%;其他各档次贷款及存款基准利率、个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。\n2020年的新冠疫情,美联储再次大放水,但中美两国的经济周期和货币政策再次出现错配。\n\n两次的配错,并非刻意追求,更多的是中国出于自身的实际情况做出的决策,如2015年需要解决地方债务到期问题、房地产高库存问题,2020年则是通过快速的疫情防控,用出口红利代替了纯粹依靠货币刺激的老路。这次降准,也颇有2015年时的意思。\n不过,这种独立性并不等于完全不顾美联储,毕竟全球经济的火车头还是美国,恰恰是我们想在美联储和自身国情中取平衡。当然,中国接下来需要面对的是,如果美联储因为通胀压力大幅提前收紧流动性的节奏,人民币贬值压力和资本外流等问题上,该如何应对。\n下半年或许比我们预期要艰难许多,对外,面临出口缩减风险,货币方面又需要担心美联储货币拐点带来的压力,流动性相对宽松的窗口有限;对内,投资动力不足,寄与厚望的消费拉动的内循环经济成效还不够显著,一旦资金面收紧,很多中小微企业又会面临去年那样需求与资金面紧缺的局面。\n内外压力联合作用下,接下来央行对货币政策比较可能采取的操作可能不是放松流动性,或加入明显收紧行列,而更可能是总量控制,结构调整,定向引导,严控监管资金空转,真正把流动性引导至真正应该去的地方,比如中小微,民生经济,创新科技、绿色经济等方面。\n国家现在对提振国内企业活力、民众消费经济的目标很明确,动能也很强烈。由此,我们也可以想象得到,但凡对这个目标实现构成影响的阻碍,都会继续被压制和清理,比如炒房、反垄断、教育、医疗等等。\n但无论哪一种情况,对于资本市场面来说,可能都不会是一个很乐观的局面。\n4\n结语\n股价这个东西,长期看行业,中期看基本面,短期看流动性。\n去年3月到现在,我们经历了一波典型的从“经济向好,货币宽松”到“经济向好,货币收紧”的过程,大A也从普涨转变为分化抱团。\n下图第三象限所发生的事情--分化正在发生,如果接下来的货币真的向紧,那么第四象限--哀鸿遍野的资本市场也大概率会重演,只是程度有多大的问题。\n\n做投资,我们要不吝以最差的预期决定去留,于无声处听惊雷。\n至于那些上半年没能赚到钱的投资者,时间和机会可能并不多了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UCmain":0.9,"CYB":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144339062,"gmtCreate":1626266815256,"gmtModify":1703756653274,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570854159723648","authorIdStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144339062","repostId":"2151593458","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151593458","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626228999,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151593458?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 10:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US inflation remains high, and the time has come to test the Federal Reserve.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151593458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国6月物价再度爆表,美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚,以及货币政策将如何作出应对,成为市场关注的焦点。北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示,美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值,多项数据创新高。今年以来,美国通胀节节走高,但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”,随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求,通胀将消退。当地时间周三和周四,美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。","content":"<p>U.S. prices surged again in June, raising questions about whether the Federal Reserve's \"temporary inflation theory\" remains tenable and how monetary policy will respond.</p><p>Data released Tuesday evening Beijing time showed that the U.S. CPI and core CPI in June were both higher than expected and year-on-year, with several data points reaching new highs. The CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, the highest increase since August 2008, far exceeding the 5% increase in May and the 4.9% increase previously predicted by economists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c1b19fafe4fccf8df811ab9531e0be\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image source: Zerohedge)</p><p>Industries directly affected by the pandemic saw the largest price increases, with travel-related expenses such as airfares soaring, and semiconductor shortages also leading to a surge in used car prices. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that used car prices rose 10.5% month-over-month in June, contributing one-third of the CPI increase last month.</p><p>Following the data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hike surged, US Treasury yields jumped during the session, and the yield curve flattened. Amid the threat of inflation, the US dollar strengthened further, approaching a three-month high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e83a31c11d1be5a229daf643f2d3ae\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image source: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Challenges Facing the Fed</h2>U.S. inflation has been rising steadily this year, but the Federal Reserve has consistently insisted that the price increases are only \"temporary\" and that inflation will subside as pandemic lockdowns are further eased and supply catches up with pent-up demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce1f249aafa91beb78c3bda811d915d\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the FOMC meeting in June, the Federal Reserve predicted that its favored core inflation gauge would rise by 3% this year and fall back to 2.1% in 2022.</p><p>Regarding monetary policy, the Federal Reserve released an unexpectedly hawkish signal last month, hinting at two rate hike in 2023. The meeting minutes show that the Federal Reserve has begun discussing the Taper issue, but a consensus could not be reached, and discussions will continue in the future.</p><p>However, Tuesday's unexpectedly high inflation data could put pressure on the Federal Reserve, forcing it to consider reducing asset purchases at a faster pace than previously expected, thereby slowing monetary stimulus.</p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard said on Tuesday that with the U.S. economy growing at a rate of 7% and the pandemic being better controlled, it is now time to remove the Fed's stimulus measures. Bullard has always been known as a \"dove,\" and his hawkish remarks have attracted a lot of attention from the market.</p><p>But the president of the New York Federal Reserve<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>The U.S. economy has not yet met the conditions for the Federal Reserve to reduce its asset purchases, it said on Monday. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly also warned last Friday that exiting the stimulus program too early would pose significant risks due to the continued spread of the Delta variant.</p><p>On Wednesday and Thursday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be questioned by members of Congress. Investors will be closely watching whether Powell signals that he will begin discussions on tapering asset purchases at the Federal Reserve meeting in July.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist at ING Group, said the Federal Reserve seems to have no reason to continue its $120 billion monthly asset purchases in quantitative easing, and we will look for hints about an impending tapering from Powell's testimony and the Jackson Hole meeting in August.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>Analysts wrote in a report on Tuesday that if the Federal Reserve sticks to its average inflation target and the timing of the rate hike exceeds market expectations, it could mean that interest rate volatility will intensify in the future.</p><p>Wells Fargo analysts point out that the Federal Reserve will face more challenges in communication in the future. On the one hand, it hopes to remain patient, and on the other hand, the market does not seem to be \"buying into\" the Fed's new strategy for dealing with inflation. These contradictions should exacerbate future volatility in the macroeconomic market.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US inflation remains high, and the time has come to test the Federal Reserve.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS inflation remains high, and the time has come to test the Federal Reserve.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. prices surged again in June, raising questions about whether the Federal Reserve's \"temporary inflation theory\" remains tenable and how monetary policy will respond.</p><p>Data released Tuesday evening Beijing time showed that the U.S. CPI and core CPI in June were both higher than expected and year-on-year, with several data points reaching new highs. The CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, the highest increase since August 2008, far exceeding the 5% increase in May and the 4.9% increase previously predicted by economists.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c1b19fafe4fccf8df811ab9531e0be\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image source: Zerohedge)</p><p>Industries directly affected by the pandemic saw the largest price increases, with travel-related expenses such as airfares soaring, and semiconductor shortages also leading to a surge in used car prices. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that used car prices rose 10.5% month-over-month in June, contributing one-third of the CPI increase last month.</p><p>Following the data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hike surged, US Treasury yields jumped during the session, and the yield curve flattened. Amid the threat of inflation, the US dollar strengthened further, approaching a three-month high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e83a31c11d1be5a229daf643f2d3ae\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image source: Zerohedge)</p><p><h2>Challenges Facing the Fed</h2>U.S. inflation has been rising steadily this year, but the Federal Reserve has consistently insisted that the price increases are only \"temporary\" and that inflation will subside as pandemic lockdowns are further eased and supply catches up with pent-up demand.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce1f249aafa91beb78c3bda811d915d\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the FOMC meeting in June, the Federal Reserve predicted that its favored core inflation gauge would rise by 3% this year and fall back to 2.1% in 2022.</p><p>Regarding monetary policy, the Federal Reserve released an unexpectedly hawkish signal last month, hinting at two rate hike in 2023. The meeting minutes show that the Federal Reserve has begun discussing the Taper issue, but a consensus could not be reached, and discussions will continue in the future.</p><p>However, Tuesday's unexpectedly high inflation data could put pressure on the Federal Reserve, forcing it to consider reducing asset purchases at a faster pace than previously expected, thereby slowing monetary stimulus.</p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard said on Tuesday that with the U.S. economy growing at a rate of 7% and the pandemic being better controlled, it is now time to remove the Fed's stimulus measures. Bullard has always been known as a \"dove,\" and his hawkish remarks have attracted a lot of attention from the market.</p><p>But the president of the New York Federal Reserve<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>The U.S. economy has not yet met the conditions for the Federal Reserve to reduce its asset purchases, it said on Monday. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly also warned last Friday that exiting the stimulus program too early would pose significant risks due to the continued spread of the Delta variant.</p><p>On Wednesday and Thursday local time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be questioned by members of Congress. Investors will be closely watching whether Powell signals that he will begin discussions on tapering asset purchases at the Federal Reserve meeting in July.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">Dutch International</a>James Knightley, chief international economist at ING Group, said the Federal Reserve seems to have no reason to continue its $120 billion monthly asset purchases in quantitative easing, and we will look for hints about an impending tapering from Powell's testimony and the Jackson Hole meeting in August.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>Analysts wrote in a report on Tuesday that if the Federal Reserve sticks to its average inflation target and the timing of the rate hike exceeds market expectations, it could mean that interest rate volatility will intensify in the future.</p><p>Wells Fargo analysts point out that the Federal Reserve will face more challenges in communication in the future. On the one hand, it hopes to remain patient, and on the other hand, the market does not seem to be \"buying into\" the Fed's new strategy for dealing with inflation. These contradictions should exacerbate future volatility in the macroeconomic market.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635336\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd1549a90968778a7afdc56cd660b1b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635336","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151593458","content_text":"美国6月物价再度爆表,美联储的“通胀暂时论”还能否站得住脚,以及货币政策将如何作出应对,成为市场关注的焦点。\n北京时间周二晚间公布的数据显示,美国6月CPI及核心CPI环比、同比均高于预期及前值,多项数据创新高。其中CPI同比上涨5.4%,创下2008年8月以来的最高涨幅,远高于5月份的5%和经济学家此前预测的4.9%的涨幅。\n\n(图片来源:Zerohedge)\n受疫情直接影响的行业的价格涨幅最大,机票等差旅相关费用飙升,半导体短缺也导致二手车价格飙升。美国劳工统计局的数据显示,6月二手车价格环比上涨了10.5%,贡献了上个月CPI上涨的三分之一涨幅。\n数据公布后,市场对美联储加息预期陡升,美债收益率盘中跃升,收益率曲线趋平。通胀威胁下,美元进一步走强,逼近三个月来高位。\n\n(图片来源:Zerohedge)\n美联储面临的挑战\n今年以来,美国通胀节节走高,但美联储一直坚称物价上涨只是“暂时的”,随着疫情封锁进一步放松、供应赶上被压抑的需求,通胀将消退。\n\n在6月的FOMC会议上,美联储预测,其青睐的核心通胀指标今年将上升3%,2022年将回落至2.1%。\n货币政策方面,美联储上月释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号,暗示2023年会有两次加息。会议纪要显示,美联储内部已经开始讨论Taper事宜,不过无法达成共识,未来将继续讨论。\n但周二意外高企的通胀数据可能会给美联储带来压力,迫使其考虑以比此前预期更快的速度减少资产购买,从而放缓货币刺激。\n美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德周二表示,随着美国经济以7%的速度增长,以及疫情得到越来越好的控制,现在是取消美联储的刺激措施了。布拉德一直以来以“鸽派”著称,他的鹰派言论引发了市场高度关注。\n但纽约联储行长威廉姆斯周一称,美国经济尚未达到美联储减少资产购买规模的条件。旧金山联储总裁戴利也在上周五警告,由于Delta变种毒株持续蔓延,过早退出刺激计划将造成极大的风险。\n当地时间周三和周四,美联储主席鲍威尔将接受国会议员的质询。投资者将密切关注鲍威尔会否释放在7月美联储会议上开始讨论缩减资产购买规模的信号。\n荷兰国际集团(ING)首席国际经济学家James Knightley表示,美联储似乎没有理由继续每月购买1200亿美元资产的量化宽松计划,我们将从鲍威尔的证词以及8月杰克逊霍尔会议上寻找有关即将缩减规模的暗示。\n富国银行分析们在周二的一份报告中写道,如果美联储坚守平均通胀目标,使得加息的时点超过市场预期,那么这可能意味着未来利率波动将加剧。\n富国分析师们指出,未来美联储在沟通方面将面临更多挑战,一方面它希望能够继续保持耐心,另一方面市场对美联储对待通胀的新策略似乎并不“买账”,这些矛盾应该会加剧宏观市场未来的波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142725901,"gmtCreate":1626179065903,"gmtModify":1703754875255,"author":{"id":"3570854159723648","authorId":"3570854159723648","name":"Tommyng97","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8523d83548047d8adb3b9a04bd0c916","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570854159723648","authorIdStr":"3570854159723648"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142725901","repostId":"1170101093","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}