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Racheltestin

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- RacheltestinRacheltestin
  ·2021-07-21
  Comment here :)
  Behind The Market's Furious Reversal: Record High Skew
  At the end of June, when the S&P was making new all time highs day after day, and when the VIX was t
  Behind The Market's Furious Reversal: Record High Skew
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- RacheltestinRacheltestin
  ·2021-07-21
  Like and comment :)
  Here Is The One-Word Reason Why JPMorgan Just Raised Its S&P Target To 4,600
  Mid-cycle?Late-cycle? Nope: according to the latest note published overnight from JPMorgan head glob
  Here Is The One-Word Reason Why JPMorgan Just Raised Its S&P Target To 4,600
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- RacheltestinRacheltestin
  ·2021-07-19
  Ooo
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual
  This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual
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- RacheltestinRacheltestin
  ·2021-07-18
  Like this comment :)
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- RacheltestinRacheltestin
  ·2021-07-18
  Like this comment :)
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- RacheltestinRacheltestin
  ·2021-07-18
  Like this comment :)
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- RacheltestinRacheltestin
  ·2021-07-17
  Like this comment :)
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- RacheltestinRacheltestin
  ·2021-07-17
  Like and comment pls :)
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- RacheltestinRacheltestin
  ·2021-07-16
  Like and comment pls :)
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- RacheltestinRacheltestin
  ·2021-07-14
  Like and comment pls :)
  Why US Economic Conditions Are 'Just Right' For The Stock Market Rally To Continue
  In the second quarter, two of the biggest fears among investors were that wage growth and inflation
  Why US Economic Conditions Are 'Just Right' For The Stock Market Rally To Continue
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here :)","listText":"Comment here :)","text":"Comment here :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176697442","repostId":"1144363960","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144363960","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626877711,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144363960?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Market's Furious Reversal: Record High Skew","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144363960","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the end of June, when the S&P was making new all time highs day after day, and when the VIX was t","content":"<p>At the end of June, when the S&amp;P was making new all time highs day after day, and when the VIX was touching fresh 2021 lows, we cautioned that the skew index just hit a new all time high - meaning that put options have been unusually expensive relative to at-the-money options, helping support the put-heavy VIX index. As we further added, high skew, which compares put option prices with at-the-money option prices, has reached new all-time high,&nbsp;<b>and reflected investor perception that high volatility would return should markets sell off.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30d4664cf3c973cc1a86d743bcae379\" tg-width=\"746\" tg-height=\"464\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Commenting on this unusual move, we said that it shows that while on one hand traders seem complacent, they have never been more nervous that even a modest wobble in the market could start a crash. By extension,<b>\"</b><b><u>they have also never been more protected against a full-blown market crash</u></b><b>.\"</b></p>\n<p>So fast forward to the violent, if brief, air pocket (and hardly a full-blown crash) the market experienced late last week and on Monday, which saw stocks tumble the most in months... only to soar right after. In retrospect, traders have the record high skew to thank for that because while risk reversed sharply on Tuesday and continuing today, traders were fully hedged and ready to pounce.</p>\n<p>So following up on his observations from a month ago, when he first noted the record high skew, Goldman's derivatives strategist Rocky Fishman wrote that this week’s volatility pushed equity implied and realized volatility higher, with the VIX briefly hitting 25 during the day on Monday (19-Jul)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44c28ca21fe15a17f5b7fa1e3236e5ad\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">... even if in absolute terms vol is not high: three-week SPX realized vol (12.1%) is still below year-to-date realized vol (13.4%),and Tuesday’s rally brought the VIX back under 20. More importantly,<b>in response to record downside skew correctly implying that a sell-off would bring much higher volatility, skew has now moved even higher - at least for the S&amp;P 500.</b></p>\n<p>Some more observations from Fishman: \"although Tuesday’s large SPX move and drop in implied vol has reduced vol risk premium, the VIX remains high relative to recent realized vol.\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, the SPX has not had one-month realized vol as high as the current VIX level (19.7) since November - indicating that options continue to be persistently expensive,<b>which also means that traders are hedging to outsized moves both higher and lower and any selloffs are likely to be fleeting as hedges are cashed in</b>.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002e0c79da541efcfb85fe1e04e29088\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>That said, given the recent precedent for quick sell-offs to be followed quickly by low volatility, Goldman expects volatility to subside in the near term with more likelihood of a sustained increase in Q4, and a big reason for this is the persistently high index skew.</p>\n<blockquote>\n SPX index skew continues to be at near-record levels, which we see as driven by a lack of downside sellers\n <b>as much as demand for hedging.</b>The strong reaction of the VIX to Monday’s sell-off, with the VIX up over six points at one point intraday,\n <b>proved that high skew was justified - at least on a very local level....</b>on a more persistent sell-off, it would be difficult to sustain the level of implied volatility that skew would indicate.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Meanwhile, from a cross-asset standpoint, Fishman adds that if interest rates staying this low has the potential to be a catalyst for further equity upside (unless they plunge<i><b>too</b></i>fast), leaving the potential for near-term asymmetry in SPX potential returns that is the opposite of what option markets are implying.</p>\n<p>So how does one trade the persistently sticky record high skew? Goldman continues to like levered risk reversals as a way to take advantage of this dynamic: Sell a 17-Sep 3800-strike put (12.1% OTM) to fund 2x 4550-strike (5.2% OTM) calls for zero net premium. The trade would be subject to dollar-for-dollar losses shouldthe SPX close below the downside strike at expiration.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Market's Furious Reversal: Record High Skew</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Market's Furious Reversal: Record High Skew\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-21 22:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-markets-furious-reversal-record-high-skew?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>At the end of June, when the S&P was making new all time highs day after day, and when the VIX was touching fresh 2021 lows, we cautioned that the skew index just hit a new all time high - meaning ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-markets-furious-reversal-record-high-skew?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-markets-furious-reversal-record-high-skew?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144363960","content_text":"At the end of June, when the S&P was making new all time highs day after day, and when the VIX was touching fresh 2021 lows, we cautioned that the skew index just hit a new all time high - meaning that put options have been unusually expensive relative to at-the-money options, helping support the put-heavy VIX index. As we further added, high skew, which compares put option prices with at-the-money option prices, has reached new all-time high, and reflected investor perception that high volatility would return should markets sell off.\nCommenting on this unusual move, we said that it shows that while on one hand traders seem complacent, they have never been more nervous that even a modest wobble in the market could start a crash. By extension,\"they have also never been more protected against a full-blown market crash.\"\nSo fast forward to the violent, if brief, air pocket (and hardly a full-blown crash) the market experienced late last week and on Monday, which saw stocks tumble the most in months... only to soar right after. In retrospect, traders have the record high skew to thank for that because while risk reversed sharply on Tuesday and continuing today, traders were fully hedged and ready to pounce.\nSo following up on his observations from a month ago, when he first noted the record high skew, Goldman's derivatives strategist Rocky Fishman wrote that this week’s volatility pushed equity implied and realized volatility higher, with the VIX briefly hitting 25 during the day on Monday (19-Jul)...\n... even if in absolute terms vol is not high: three-week SPX realized vol (12.1%) is still below year-to-date realized vol (13.4%),and Tuesday’s rally brought the VIX back under 20. More importantly,in response to record downside skew correctly implying that a sell-off would bring much higher volatility, skew has now moved even higher - at least for the S&P 500.\nSome more observations from Fishman: \"although Tuesday’s large SPX move and drop in implied vol has reduced vol risk premium, the VIX remains high relative to recent realized vol.\"\nFurthermore, the SPX has not had one-month realized vol as high as the current VIX level (19.7) since November - indicating that options continue to be persistently expensive,which also means that traders are hedging to outsized moves both higher and lower and any selloffs are likely to be fleeting as hedges are cashed in.\n\nThat said, given the recent precedent for quick sell-offs to be followed quickly by low volatility, Goldman expects volatility to subside in the near term with more likelihood of a sustained increase in Q4, and a big reason for this is the persistently high index skew.\n\n SPX index skew continues to be at near-record levels, which we see as driven by a lack of downside sellers\n as much as demand for hedging.The strong reaction of the VIX to Monday’s sell-off, with the VIX up over six points at one point intraday,\n proved that high skew was justified - at least on a very local level....on a more persistent sell-off, it would be difficult to sustain the level of implied volatility that skew would indicate.\n\nMeanwhile, from a cross-asset standpoint, Fishman adds that if interest rates staying this low has the potential to be a catalyst for further equity upside (unless they plungetoofast), leaving the potential for near-term asymmetry in SPX potential returns that is the opposite of what option markets are implying.\nSo how does one trade the persistently sticky record high skew? Goldman continues to like levered risk reversals as a way to take advantage of this dynamic: Sell a 17-Sep 3800-strike put (12.1% OTM) to fund 2x 4550-strike (5.2% OTM) calls for zero net premium. The trade would be subject to dollar-for-dollar losses shouldthe SPX close below the downside strike at expiration.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176694516,"gmtCreate":1626878784535,"gmtModify":1703479868111,"author":{"id":"3570069153864313","authorId":"3570069153864313","name":"Racheltestin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83746feea9af3c17ae42ff00d7ca9254","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570069153864313","authorIdStr":"3570069153864313"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment :)&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment :)&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176694516","repostId":"1107219983","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107219983","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626858926,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107219983?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 17:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Is The One-Word Reason Why JPMorgan Just Raised Its S&P Target To 4,600","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107219983","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Mid-cycle?Late-cycle? Nope: according to the latest note published overnight from JPMorgan head glob","content":"<p>Mid-cycle?Late-cycle? Nope: according to the latest note published overnight from JPMorgan head global equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, \"even though equity leadership and bonds are trading as if the global economy is entering late cycle,<b>our research suggests the recovery is still in early-cycle</b>and gradually transitioning towards mid-cycle.\" And echoing his JPM colleague and fellow Croat, Marko Kolanovic, who yesterdayadvised clients to stop freaking out about the delta variant(advise which markets are taking to heart today), Dubravko writes that the largest commercial bank remains \"constructive on equities and see the latest round of growth and slowdown fears premature and overblown.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52b0923c42b8b316b85e56a776fa3337\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"1215\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Elaborating on why he is sanguine about the current Delta case breakout, Lakos-Bujas writes that \"we remain of the view that this latest wave will not derail the broader reopening process. While cases have gone up, deaths / hospitalizations remain low and stable due to broadening vaccination rollout and self-immunity from prior waves.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d396ca943f750f3a3bcb38e01a53cbdf\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"546\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The strategist then argues that \"reopening of the economy is not an event but rather a process, which in our opinion is still not priced-in, and especially not now given recent market moves. For instance, an increasing number of reopening stocks are now down 30-50% from 1Q21 highs (i.e. travel, cruise lines, oil) and some have reversed back to last year June levels when COVID-19 uncertainty and economic setup were vastly worse than today.\"</p>\n<p>Given the above, JPM sees \"increasingly compelling\" risk/reward for the reopening theme, which can be expressed through Consumer Recovery (JPAMCONR &lt;Index&gt;), Domestic Recovery (JPAMCRDB &lt;Index&gt;) and International Recovery (JPAMCRIB &lt;Index&gt;) baskets, see Fig 1.\" Additionally, JPm argues that global mobility remains nascent and its normalization will continue to release pent-up demand, while tight inventories and new orders bode positively for global growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9c52172685e208ffe19abe53233205\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"959\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Combining all this bullishness,<b>the JPM equity strategist is revising his EPS estimates higher by an additional $5 to $205 for 2021 and raises the bank's long-held 2021 year-end price target of 4,400 to 4,600, due to the following considerations:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n At a thematic/sector level, the risk/reward for reopening stocks has improved significantly with the recent pullback creating many unusually attractive opportunities for investors to re-enter various parts of the cyclical cohort. Consumer Discretionary (i.e. Retail, Travel &amp; Leisure), Semis, Banks and Energy are strong buys at current levels. For instance,\n <b>large-cap Energy is now trading at a ~10% FCF yield and a &gt;8% FCF/EV yield at $70 Brent in 2022, with leverage that is &lt;1x</b>. The sector has increasing potential for a sharp short squeeze and move higher, given its extreme disconnect from oil fundamentals (i.e. widest in 30+ years, Figure 10). In addition, our Semiconductor research argues that we are only 30-40% of the way into&nbsp; the current semiconductor upcycle and expect strong Y/Y growth into next year with positive EPS revisions for the next 3-4 quarters. Supply will likely remain tight into 2022, while demand remains strong (20-40% above companies’ ability to supply), thus this supply demand imbalance will persist through 2021. Although customers are responding to tight supply with higher than needed orders, ongoing supply tightness is limiting fulfillment. In fact, JPM expects channel and customer inventories to decline Q/Q again in the just completed June quarter.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Looking at the fundamentals, JPM predicts that S&amp;P 500 gains should also be supported by strong earnings growth and capital return until 2023,<b>and is why JPM is adjusting its above consensus S&amp;P 500 EPS by another $5 for 2022 to $230 (consensus $214) and 2023 to $250 (consensus $233).</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n This revision is largely due to global reopening which is delayed and bound to release further pent-up demand, inventory replenishment, rising profitability for Energy companies, and ongoing policy actions (childcare, infrastructure, etc). We expect cumulative revenue growth of ~30% by 2023 relative to pre-COVID (FY 2019), ~150bp net income margin expansion to a record high at over 13%, and gross buybacks nearing an annual pace of ~$1t during this period.\n</blockquote>\n<p>While all sectors are expected to contribute to earnings growth, JPM expects reflation sensitive sectors (Commodities, Financials, Industrials) and Consumer to do the heaviest lifting in the coming quarters in terms of beats and revisions.</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, Lakos-Bujas says that \"<b>considering this outlook for earnings and shareholder return, we are raising our Price Target to 4,600 for year-end 2021.\"</b></p>\n<p>But while any first year strategist can goalseek a fundamentally bullish narrative and chart it, as JPM has done below...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e87174356d968c69893caff66745e0\" tg-width=\"1072\" tg-height=\"1304\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">... there is a very specific reason behind JPM's bullish reversal:<b>the coming surge in buybacks which will result in a boom in shareholder returns,</b>or as Dubravko notes, \"corporates have already increased gross buybacks from pandemic era low of $525b (trailing twelve months as of 1Q21) to an annualized run rate of ~$775b YTD and should surpass previous record of ~$850b (as of 1Q19).\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b09d295af263e87277eaffbda47bb7c\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In practical terms, JPM expects a sharp drop in the S&amp;P's share count in the next 24 months as the buyback-facilitated slow-motion LBO continues.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae94ad29f188e3aac5cdf92b9df65fc3\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Some more details below on the one biggest catalyst behind JPM's SPX price target hike:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Expecting a boom in shareholder return led by buybacks.</b>Buybacks are reemerging as a key theme with net buyback activity significantly improving this year after bottoming in 2Q20. Corporate buyback announcements, typically a leading indicator of buyback execution activity and corporate confidence, have already well-exceeded 2020 levels ($431B YTD vs. $307B 2020, see Figure 25). In fact,\n <b>the rebound in announcement activity is similar to the surge post-TCJA (see Figure 23) which is tracking towards and it is likely to easily surpass ~$650B by year-end and likely to see rolling 12-month announcements surpass prior record level of ~$1T.</b>Historically, buyback announcements have been concentrated within Technology and Financials. However, YTD we are seeing strong announcement activity from Communications as well (driven by GOOGL ~$50B in Apr). As a reminder, ~$90B of Tech’s $133B in announcements YTD is supported by AAPL and ~$25B of Financials' ~$92B is supported by BAC.\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/774d4e9c2550b27c62d10733947c8de4\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the June 30th lifting of pandemic era restriction on US Banks,<b>we could see some further pick-up in buyback announcements.</b>Dry powder (i.e. announced repurchase programs not yet executed) levels have been recovering to pre-pandemic levels (~$658B, see Figure 27) as executions have been relatively slower to rebound but should show a material sequential growth in the coming quarters. With record profit margins (~13% in 2022 vs ~11.5% in 2019), bloated cash levels of $2.0T ex-financials (vs. $1.6T pre- COVID), and lower high grade debt yields (JULI at 2.6% now, vs 3.3% prepandemic),<b>we are expecting a boom in buyback activity over the next year.</b>Gross buybacks should surpass the prior executed high of $850b.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053354e7e2fc9ea74585b437e0d77f78\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"415\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In summary,<i>assuming $875b in buybacks and dividend income of $575 over the next year,</i>JPM calculates that<b>the expected shareholder yield is 3.9%.</b>This, as Dubravko concludes, \"is a significant cross-asset valuation support for equities at a time when 10yr US bonds are yielding 1.2% and $13 trillion of global debt has a negative yield.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Is The One-Word Reason Why JPMorgan Just Raised Its S&P Target To 4,600</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Is The One-Word Reason Why JPMorgan Just Raised Its S&P Target To 4,600\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-21 17:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-one-word-reason-why-jpmorgan-just-raised-its-sp-target-4600><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Mid-cycle?Late-cycle? Nope: according to the latest note published overnight from JPMorgan head global equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, \"even though equity leadership and bonds are trading as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-one-word-reason-why-jpmorgan-just-raised-its-sp-target-4600\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-one-word-reason-why-jpmorgan-just-raised-its-sp-target-4600","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107219983","content_text":"Mid-cycle?Late-cycle? Nope: according to the latest note published overnight from JPMorgan head global equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, \"even though equity leadership and bonds are trading as if the global economy is entering late cycle,our research suggests the recovery is still in early-cycleand gradually transitioning towards mid-cycle.\" And echoing his JPM colleague and fellow Croat, Marko Kolanovic, who yesterdayadvised clients to stop freaking out about the delta variant(advise which markets are taking to heart today), Dubravko writes that the largest commercial bank remains \"constructive on equities and see the latest round of growth and slowdown fears premature and overblown.\"\nElaborating on why he is sanguine about the current Delta case breakout, Lakos-Bujas writes that \"we remain of the view that this latest wave will not derail the broader reopening process. While cases have gone up, deaths / hospitalizations remain low and stable due to broadening vaccination rollout and self-immunity from prior waves.\"\nThe strategist then argues that \"reopening of the economy is not an event but rather a process, which in our opinion is still not priced-in, and especially not now given recent market moves. For instance, an increasing number of reopening stocks are now down 30-50% from 1Q21 highs (i.e. travel, cruise lines, oil) and some have reversed back to last year June levels when COVID-19 uncertainty and economic setup were vastly worse than today.\"\nGiven the above, JPM sees \"increasingly compelling\" risk/reward for the reopening theme, which can be expressed through Consumer Recovery (JPAMCONR <Index>), Domestic Recovery (JPAMCRDB <Index>) and International Recovery (JPAMCRIB <Index>) baskets, see Fig 1.\" Additionally, JPm argues that global mobility remains nascent and its normalization will continue to release pent-up demand, while tight inventories and new orders bode positively for global growth.\nCombining all this bullishness,the JPM equity strategist is revising his EPS estimates higher by an additional $5 to $205 for 2021 and raises the bank's long-held 2021 year-end price target of 4,400 to 4,600, due to the following considerations:\n\n At a thematic/sector level, the risk/reward for reopening stocks has improved significantly with the recent pullback creating many unusually attractive opportunities for investors to re-enter various parts of the cyclical cohort. Consumer Discretionary (i.e. Retail, Travel & Leisure), Semis, Banks and Energy are strong buys at current levels. For instance,\n large-cap Energy is now trading at a ~10% FCF yield and a >8% FCF/EV yield at $70 Brent in 2022, with leverage that is <1x. The sector has increasing potential for a sharp short squeeze and move higher, given its extreme disconnect from oil fundamentals (i.e. widest in 30+ years, Figure 10). In addition, our Semiconductor research argues that we are only 30-40% of the way into  the current semiconductor upcycle and expect strong Y/Y growth into next year with positive EPS revisions for the next 3-4 quarters. Supply will likely remain tight into 2022, while demand remains strong (20-40% above companies’ ability to supply), thus this supply demand imbalance will persist through 2021. Although customers are responding to tight supply with higher than needed orders, ongoing supply tightness is limiting fulfillment. In fact, JPM expects channel and customer inventories to decline Q/Q again in the just completed June quarter.\n\nLooking at the fundamentals, JPM predicts that S&P 500 gains should also be supported by strong earnings growth and capital return until 2023,and is why JPM is adjusting its above consensus S&P 500 EPS by another $5 for 2022 to $230 (consensus $214) and 2023 to $250 (consensus $233).\n\n This revision is largely due to global reopening which is delayed and bound to release further pent-up demand, inventory replenishment, rising profitability for Energy companies, and ongoing policy actions (childcare, infrastructure, etc). We expect cumulative revenue growth of ~30% by 2023 relative to pre-COVID (FY 2019), ~150bp net income margin expansion to a record high at over 13%, and gross buybacks nearing an annual pace of ~$1t during this period.\n\nWhile all sectors are expected to contribute to earnings growth, JPM expects reflation sensitive sectors (Commodities, Financials, Industrials) and Consumer to do the heaviest lifting in the coming quarters in terms of beats and revisions.\nPutting it all together, Lakos-Bujas says that \"considering this outlook for earnings and shareholder return, we are raising our Price Target to 4,600 for year-end 2021.\"\nBut while any first year strategist can goalseek a fundamentally bullish narrative and chart it, as JPM has done below...\n... there is a very specific reason behind JPM's bullish reversal:the coming surge in buybacks which will result in a boom in shareholder returns,or as Dubravko notes, \"corporates have already increased gross buybacks from pandemic era low of $525b (trailing twelve months as of 1Q21) to an annualized run rate of ~$775b YTD and should surpass previous record of ~$850b (as of 1Q19).\"\nIn practical terms, JPM expects a sharp drop in the S&P's share count in the next 24 months as the buyback-facilitated slow-motion LBO continues.\nSome more details below on the one biggest catalyst behind JPM's SPX price target hike:\n\nExpecting a boom in shareholder return led by buybacks.Buybacks are reemerging as a key theme with net buyback activity significantly improving this year after bottoming in 2Q20. Corporate buyback announcements, typically a leading indicator of buyback execution activity and corporate confidence, have already well-exceeded 2020 levels ($431B YTD vs. $307B 2020, see Figure 25). In fact,\n the rebound in announcement activity is similar to the surge post-TCJA (see Figure 23) which is tracking towards and it is likely to easily surpass ~$650B by year-end and likely to see rolling 12-month announcements surpass prior record level of ~$1T.Historically, buyback announcements have been concentrated within Technology and Financials. However, YTD we are seeing strong announcement activity from Communications as well (driven by GOOGL ~$50B in Apr). As a reminder, ~$90B of Tech’s $133B in announcements YTD is supported by AAPL and ~$25B of Financials' ~$92B is supported by BAC.\n\nWith the June 30th lifting of pandemic era restriction on US Banks,we could see some further pick-up in buyback announcements.Dry powder (i.e. announced repurchase programs not yet executed) levels have been recovering to pre-pandemic levels (~$658B, see Figure 27) as executions have been relatively slower to rebound but should show a material sequential growth in the coming quarters. With record profit margins (~13% in 2022 vs ~11.5% in 2019), bloated cash levels of $2.0T ex-financials (vs. $1.6T pre- COVID), and lower high grade debt yields (JULI at 2.6% now, vs 3.3% prepandemic),we are expecting a boom in buyback activity over the next year.Gross buybacks should surpass the prior executed high of $850b.\nIn summary,assuming $875b in buybacks and dividend income of $575 over the next year,JPM calculates thatthe expected shareholder yield is 3.9%.This, as Dubravko concludes, \"is a significant cross-asset valuation support for equities at a time when 10yr US bonds are yielding 1.2% and $13 trillion of global debt has a negative yield.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171335482,"gmtCreate":1626705807046,"gmtModify":1703763749421,"author":{"id":"3570069153864313","authorId":"3570069153864313","name":"Racheltestin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83746feea9af3c17ae42ff00d7ca9254","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570069153864313","authorIdStr":"3570069153864313"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ooo","listText":"Ooo","text":"Ooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171335482","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173347989,"gmtCreate":1626622847641,"gmtModify":1703762423284,"author":{"id":"3570069153864313","authorId":"3570069153864313","name":"Racheltestin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83746feea9af3c17ae42ff00d7ca9254","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570069153864313","authorIdStr":"3570069153864313"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like this comment :)&nbsp;","listText":"Like this comment :)&nbsp;","text":"Like this comment :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173347989","repostId":"2152368129","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173344421,"gmtCreate":1626622823663,"gmtModify":1703762422475,"author":{"id":"3570069153864313","authorId":"3570069153864313","name":"Racheltestin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83746feea9af3c17ae42ff00d7ca9254","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570069153864313","authorIdStr":"3570069153864313"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like this comment :)&nbsp;","listText":"Like this comment :)&nbsp;","text":"Like this comment :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173344421","repostId":"1123523681","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173344692,"gmtCreate":1626622808116,"gmtModify":1703762422152,"author":{"id":"3570069153864313","authorId":"3570069153864313","name":"Racheltestin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83746feea9af3c17ae42ff00d7ca9254","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570069153864313","authorIdStr":"3570069153864313"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like this comment :)&nbsp;","listText":"Like this comment :)&nbsp;","text":"Like this comment :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173344692","repostId":"1183956332","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179143778,"gmtCreate":1626496614394,"gmtModify":1703761158870,"author":{"id":"3570069153864313","authorId":"3570069153864313","name":"Racheltestin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83746feea9af3c17ae42ff00d7ca9254","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570069153864313","authorIdStr":"3570069153864313"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like this comment :)&nbsp;","listText":"Like this comment :)&nbsp;","text":"Like this comment :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179143778","repostId":"2152168563","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179143181,"gmtCreate":1626496540143,"gmtModify":1703761157894,"author":{"id":"3570069153864313","authorId":"3570069153864313","name":"Racheltestin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83746feea9af3c17ae42ff00d7ca9254","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570069153864313","authorIdStr":"3570069153864313"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment pls :)&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls :)&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179143181","repostId":"1198202103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170998814,"gmtCreate":1626398534838,"gmtModify":1703759339024,"author":{"id":"3570069153864313","authorId":"3570069153864313","name":"Racheltestin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83746feea9af3c17ae42ff00d7ca9254","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570069153864313","authorIdStr":"3570069153864313"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment pls :)&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls :)&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170998814","repostId":"2151573133","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579568139568178","authorId":"3579568139568178","name":"Gnoixed","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7e2310e2259dc0abb6c8cd2e1a05b","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3579568139568178","authorIdStr":"3579568139568178"},"content":"pls reply","text":"pls reply","html":"pls reply"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145435466,"gmtCreate":1626236177255,"gmtModify":1703756092807,"author":{"id":"3570069153864313","authorId":"3570069153864313","name":"Racheltestin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83746feea9af3c17ae42ff00d7ca9254","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570069153864313","authorIdStr":"3570069153864313"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment pls :)&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls :)&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145435466","repostId":"1112852623","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112852623","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1626235498,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112852623?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 12:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why US Economic Conditions Are 'Just Right' For The Stock Market Rally To Continue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112852623","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"In the second quarter, two of the biggest fears among investors were that wage growth and inflation ","content":"<p>In the second quarter, two of the biggest fears among investors were that wage growth and inflation would run too hot.</p>\n<p>Heading into the third quarter, inflation remains well above historical norms, but there’s also a growing concern that GDP growth could disappoint and corporate earnings and guidance will start showing signs of peaking.</p>\n<p><b>Economic Sweet Spot:</b>On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported the consumer price index increased 5.4% in the month of June, its largest gain in nearly 13 years. However, the Federal Reserve has said elevated inflation levels will be “transitory” as the economy reopens to full capacity following the pandemic.</p>\n<p><b>Bank of America analyst Jared Woodard believes the U.S. economy is in a sweet spot of bullish equity market momentum, rising employment, and a favorable credit market that will keep stocks rising in the second half of the year.</b></p>\n<p>“We see ‘just right’ conditions for equities &amp; credit given consumer strength, credit market dry powder, and easy policy,” Woodard wrote in a note.</p>\n<p><b>Bullish Catalysts:</b></p>\n<p>U.S. banks have massive balance sheets, which was recently confirmed by the annual stress tests. Woodard said that dry powder can help facilitate productivity growth once the new capex cycle begins in the second half of the year.</p>\n<p>Finally, Woodard said the outlook for central bank and political policies is favorable heading into the second half of the year. The infrastructure spending bill is likely already priced into the market at this point, and it’s not too large to contribute to excess stimulus hyperinflation concerns. In addition, the Fed isn't expected to raise interest rates until 2023, so fears over rising rates will likely not hold back stock prices in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>The<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</b>(NYSE:SPY) has generated a 99.8% total return since the market hit its pandemic bottom on March 23, 2020. The stock market is clearly pricing in some extremely high recovery expectations, but given more than $6 trillion in stimulus measures, extremely easy year-over-year comps and no major obstacles on the horizon, the S&amp;P 500 appears well-positioned to continue its bullish momentum in the third quarter and beyond.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why US Economic Conditions Are 'Just Right' For The Stock Market Rally To Continue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy US Economic Conditions Are 'Just Right' For The Stock Market Rally To Continue\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-14 12:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the second quarter, two of the biggest fears among investors were that wage growth and inflation would run too hot.</p>\n<p>Heading into the third quarter, inflation remains well above historical norms, but there’s also a growing concern that GDP growth could disappoint and corporate earnings and guidance will start showing signs of peaking.</p>\n<p><b>Economic Sweet Spot:</b>On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported the consumer price index increased 5.4% in the month of June, its largest gain in nearly 13 years. However, the Federal Reserve has said elevated inflation levels will be “transitory” as the economy reopens to full capacity following the pandemic.</p>\n<p><b>Bank of America analyst Jared Woodard believes the U.S. economy is in a sweet spot of bullish equity market momentum, rising employment, and a favorable credit market that will keep stocks rising in the second half of the year.</b></p>\n<p>“We see ‘just right’ conditions for equities &amp; credit given consumer strength, credit market dry powder, and easy policy,” Woodard wrote in a note.</p>\n<p><b>Bullish Catalysts:</b></p>\n<p>U.S. banks have massive balance sheets, which was recently confirmed by the annual stress tests. Woodard said that dry powder can help facilitate productivity growth once the new capex cycle begins in the second half of the year.</p>\n<p>Finally, Woodard said the outlook for central bank and political policies is favorable heading into the second half of the year. The infrastructure spending bill is likely already priced into the market at this point, and it’s not too large to contribute to excess stimulus hyperinflation concerns. In addition, the Fed isn't expected to raise interest rates until 2023, so fears over rising rates will likely not hold back stock prices in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>The<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</b>(NYSE:SPY) has generated a 99.8% total return since the market hit its pandemic bottom on March 23, 2020. The stock market is clearly pricing in some extremely high recovery expectations, but given more than $6 trillion in stimulus measures, extremely easy year-over-year comps and no major obstacles on the horizon, the S&amp;P 500 appears well-positioned to continue its bullish momentum in the third quarter and beyond.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112852623","content_text":"In the second quarter, two of the biggest fears among investors were that wage growth and inflation would run too hot.\nHeading into the third quarter, inflation remains well above historical norms, but there’s also a growing concern that GDP growth could disappoint and corporate earnings and guidance will start showing signs of peaking.\nEconomic Sweet Spot:On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported the consumer price index increased 5.4% in the month of June, its largest gain in nearly 13 years. However, the Federal Reserve has said elevated inflation levels will be “transitory” as the economy reopens to full capacity following the pandemic.\nBank of America analyst Jared Woodard believes the U.S. economy is in a sweet spot of bullish equity market momentum, rising employment, and a favorable credit market that will keep stocks rising in the second half of the year.\n“We see ‘just right’ conditions for equities & credit given consumer strength, credit market dry powder, and easy policy,” Woodard wrote in a note.\nBullish Catalysts:\nU.S. banks have massive balance sheets, which was recently confirmed by the annual stress tests. Woodard said that dry powder can help facilitate productivity growth once the new capex cycle begins in the second half of the year.\nFinally, Woodard said the outlook for central bank and political policies is favorable heading into the second half of the year. The infrastructure spending bill is likely already priced into the market at this point, and it’s not too large to contribute to excess stimulus hyperinflation concerns. In addition, the Fed isn't expected to raise interest rates until 2023, so fears over rising rates will likely not hold back stock prices in the near term.\nBenzinga’s Take:TheSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY) has generated a 99.8% total return since the market hit its pandemic bottom on March 23, 2020. The stock market is clearly pricing in some extremely high recovery expectations, but given more than $6 trillion in stimulus measures, extremely easy year-over-year comps and no major obstacles on the horizon, the S&P 500 appears well-positioned to continue its bullish momentum in the third quarter and beyond.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}