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洞幽烛远

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- 洞幽烛远洞幽烛远
  ·2025-05-21
  $Vanguard标普500ETF(VOO)$
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- 洞幽烛远洞幽烛远
  ·2021-08-07
  Look
  Economic Daily: Regulation and Control "Patching" and Refusing Real Estate Speculators
  各地调控措施还在密集出台，不断“打补丁”“堵漏洞”。其原因在于一些城市依然面临房价和地价增长过快、市场预期不稳的状况。这对幻想房价过快上涨的炒房客们是持续的威慑。楼市调控持续加码。仅8月5日一天，
  Economic Daily: Regulation and Control "Patching" and Refusing Real Estate Speculators
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- 洞幽烛远洞幽烛远
  ·2021-07-03
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- 洞幽烛远洞幽烛远
  ·2021-06-29
  Nice
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- 洞幽烛远洞幽烛远
  ·2021-06-24
  Thanks.
  "Inflation trading" can take a break
  当分析师和媒体同志们还在讨论“通胀”和“滞胀”的时候，市场已经开始在交易通缩了： 1、近期10年期美债收益率明显下行，而且30年期的下行更多，市场收益率平坦化了，弄得美股的金融股开始下跌，因为平坦化的
  "Inflation trading" can take a break
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VOO\">$Vanguard标普500ETF(VOO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VOO\">$Vanguard标普500ETF(VOO)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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11:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Economic Daily: Regulation and Control \"Patching\" and Refusing Real Estate Speculators","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109676905","media":"经济日报","summary":"各地调控措施还在密集出台，不断“打补丁”“堵漏洞”。其原因在于一些城市依然面临房价和地价增长过快、市场预期不稳的状况。这对幻想房价过快上涨的炒房客们是持续的威慑。\n\n楼市调控持续加码。仅8月5日一天，","content":"<p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities are still facing excessive growth of housing and land prices and unstable market expectations. This is a constant deterrent to real estate speculators who fantasize about excessive house price rises. The regulation of the property market continued to increase.<b>On August 5th alone, Hangzhou, Beijing and Chengdu launched new regulations on real estate regulation</b>。</p><p><b>Hangzhou further raises the threshold of house purchase</b>。 The new measures are clear. If you have obtained Hangzhou hukou for less than 5 years, you need to pay social security for two years, and you can buy a house in the restricted purchase area; The requirement of \"non-household registration +4 years of social security\" makes it more difficult for non-Hangzhou household registration buyers to buy a house. Hangzhou's new regulations raise the threshold of house purchase with the aim of cracking down on short-term investors. In addition, Hangzhou also stipulates that the houses with low winning rate of new house lottery should be sorted according to the number of months of social security payment, which aims to avoid too many buyers snapping up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5061e381a588a0b72f0c700d4c53c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the meantime,<b>Chengdu will count the donated housing into the total number of housing sets of the recipient's family to audit the purchase qualification</b>。 That is to say, the loophole of avoiding purchase restriction through gift has been completely blocked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/251b49b66315bacb1edb0024546db0d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Beijing's regulations are more targeted, directly focusing on cracking down on \"fake divorce\" to acquire house purchase qualifications</b>。 The new regulations clarify that if the husband and wife divorce, if the number of houses owned by the original family before divorce does not meet the provisions of the commercial housing purchase restriction policy, neither party is allowed to purchase commercial housing within 3 years from the date of divorce. In recent years, in some hot cities, due to the continuous tightening of purchase restriction policies, some people have racked their brains in order to obtain the qualification to buy houses. In order to avoid purchase restrictions, qualify for repurchase, and enjoy the low down payment and low loan interest rate for the first home, some families even choose to divorce and repurchase. Beijing's new regulations make it more difficult to buy a house through \"fake divorce\", which is conducive to closing the loopholes of \"fake divorce\" real estate speculation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b84384c49789d1fc5e6ac49f40f066\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities are still facing excessive growth of housing and land prices and unstable market expectations.<b>The ongoing regulatory measures are a constant deterrent to speculators who still have illusions about rising prices too quickly</b>。</p><p>If the fire is not extinguished, the regulation of the property market needs to be maintained at high pressure, and long-term policies are needed to be implemented continuously and stably, so that buyers can have more stable expectations for the trend of housing prices and the time of buying houses.<b>Intensively introduced regulatory measures show that local governments, which have the main responsibility for real estate regulation and control, have increased initiative and enthusiasm in implementing property market regulation and control</b>。 Since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has interviewed local governments many times and included these cities in the list of key cities for real estate market monitoring. For local governments, the positioning of \"housing for living, not speculation\" and \"not using real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy\" should always be adhered to.</p><p>A few days ago, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized that we should adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Since China put forward the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism, remarkable results have been achieved in stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations, indicating that the measures taken are in line with the law of market development, accurate and effective. When there are signs of overheating in individual cities, we must decisively strengthen the regulation and supervision of the real estate market. Thankfully,<b>The \"tools\" of real estate market regulation and control are continuously enriched, and a series of measures such as land, finance, administrative measures, market rectification, fiscal and taxation, etc., are forming a strong synergy</b>。 It is believed that with the establishment and improvement of the long-term mechanism of real estate, the real estate market will usher in a healthier development situation.</p>","source":"lsy1597656426531","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Economic Daily: Regulation and Control \"Patching\" and Refusing Real Estate Speculators</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEconomic Daily: Regulation and Control \"Patching\" and Refusing Real Estate Speculators\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">经济日报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-07 11:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities are still facing excessive growth of housing and land prices and unstable market expectations. This is a constant deterrent to real estate speculators who fantasize about excessive house price rises. The regulation of the property market continued to increase.<b>On August 5th alone, Hangzhou, Beijing and Chengdu launched new regulations on real estate regulation</b>。</p><p><b>Hangzhou further raises the threshold of house purchase</b>。 The new measures are clear. If you have obtained Hangzhou hukou for less than 5 years, you need to pay social security for two years, and you can buy a house in the restricted purchase area; The requirement of \"non-household registration +4 years of social security\" makes it more difficult for non-Hangzhou household registration buyers to buy a house. Hangzhou's new regulations raise the threshold of house purchase with the aim of cracking down on short-term investors. In addition, Hangzhou also stipulates that the houses with low winning rate of new house lottery should be sorted according to the number of months of social security payment, which aims to avoid too many buyers snapping up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5061e381a588a0b72f0c700d4c53c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the meantime,<b>Chengdu will count the donated housing into the total number of housing sets of the recipient's family to audit the purchase qualification</b>。 That is to say, the loophole of avoiding purchase restriction through gift has been completely blocked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/251b49b66315bacb1edb0024546db0d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Beijing's regulations are more targeted, directly focusing on cracking down on \"fake divorce\" to acquire house purchase qualifications</b>。 The new regulations clarify that if the husband and wife divorce, if the number of houses owned by the original family before divorce does not meet the provisions of the commercial housing purchase restriction policy, neither party is allowed to purchase commercial housing within 3 years from the date of divorce. In recent years, in some hot cities, due to the continuous tightening of purchase restriction policies, some people have racked their brains in order to obtain the qualification to buy houses. In order to avoid purchase restrictions, qualify for repurchase, and enjoy the low down payment and low loan interest rate for the first home, some families even choose to divorce and repurchase. Beijing's new regulations make it more difficult to buy a house through \"fake divorce\", which is conducive to closing the loopholes of \"fake divorce\" real estate speculation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b84384c49789d1fc5e6ac49f40f066\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities are still facing excessive growth of housing and land prices and unstable market expectations.<b>The ongoing regulatory measures are a constant deterrent to speculators who still have illusions about rising prices too quickly</b>。</p><p>If the fire is not extinguished, the regulation of the property market needs to be maintained at high pressure, and long-term policies are needed to be implemented continuously and stably, so that buyers can have more stable expectations for the trend of housing prices and the time of buying houses.<b>Intensively introduced regulatory measures show that local governments, which have the main responsibility for real estate regulation and control, have increased initiative and enthusiasm in implementing property market regulation and control</b>。 Since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has interviewed local governments many times and included these cities in the list of key cities for real estate market monitoring. For local governments, the positioning of \"housing for living, not speculation\" and \"not using real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy\" should always be adhered to.</p><p>A few days ago, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized that we should adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Since China put forward the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism, remarkable results have been achieved in stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations, indicating that the measures taken are in line with the law of market development, accurate and effective. When there are signs of overheating in individual cities, we must decisively strengthen the regulation and supervision of the real estate market. Thankfully,<b>The \"tools\" of real estate market regulation and control are continuously enriched, and a series of measures such as land, finance, administrative measures, market rectification, fiscal and taxation, etc., are forming a strong synergy</b>。 It is believed that with the establishment and improvement of the long-term mechanism of real estate, the real estate market will usher in a healthier development situation.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/479661\">经济日报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{"09979":"绿城管理控股"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/479661","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109676905","content_text":"各地调控措施还在密集出台，不断“打补丁”“堵漏洞”。其原因在于一些城市依然面临房价和地价增长过快、市场预期不稳的状况。这对幻想房价过快上涨的炒房客们是持续的威慑。\n\n楼市调控持续加码。仅8月5日一天，就有杭州、北京、成都三城推出房地产调控新规。\n杭州进一步抬高了购房门槛。新举措明确，取得杭州户口未满5年，需缴纳两年社保，可在限购区域购买一套住房；“非户籍+4年社保”的要求让非杭州户籍购房者买房难度加大。杭州调控新规抬高购房门槛目的在于打击短期投资客。此外，杭州还规定新房摇号中签率低的房源，按照社保缴纳月数依次排序，此举旨在避免过多购房者扎堆抢购。\n\n与此同时，成都将赠与住房计入受赠人家庭住房总套数审核购房资格。也就是说，通过赠与方式规避限购的漏洞被彻底堵住了。\n\n而北京的规定更具针对性，直接将调控重点放在打击通过“假离婚”获取购房资格上。新规明确，夫妻离异的，原家庭在离异前拥有住房套数不符合商品住房限购政策规定的，自离异之日起3年内，任何一方均不得购买商品住房。近年来，在一些热点城市，由于限购政策不断收紧，一些人为了获取购房资格，可谓绞尽脑汁。为避开限购，获得再购房的资格，以及享受购买首套住房的低首付款和低贷款利率，一些家庭甚至选择离婚再购房。北京新规让通过“假离婚”进行购房的难度加大，有利于封堵“假离婚”炒房漏洞。\n\n各地调控措施还在密集出台，不断“打补丁”“堵漏洞”。其原因在于一些城市依然面临房价和地价增长过快、市场预期不稳的状况。不断出台的调控措施对于那些依然对房价过快上涨抱有幻想的炒房客们是持续的威慑。\n虚火不灭，楼市调控就需保持高压，更需持续且稳定执行的长效政策，以便购房者对房价走势、购房时点有更稳定的预期。密集出台的调控措施表明，对房地产调控负有主体责任的地方政府，实施楼市调控的主动性和积极性都在增加。今年以来，住房和城乡建设部已多次约谈地方政府，并将这些城市纳入房地产市场监测重点城市名单。对于地方政府而言，“房住不炒”及“不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段”的定位应始终坚持。\n日前召开的中央政治局会议强调，要坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位，稳地价、稳房价、稳预期，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。我国提出建立房地产长效机制以来，稳地价、稳房价、稳预期取得明显成效，表明采取的措施符合市场发展规律，精准有效。当个别城市出现过热苗头，须果断加大房地产市场调控力度和监管力度。可喜的是，房地产市场调控的“工具”在不断丰富，土地、金融、行政措施、市场整顿、财税等一系列措施，正在形成强大合力。相信随着房地产长效机制建立和完善，房地产市场将迎来更加健康发展的良好局面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09979":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152958607,"gmtCreate":1625265952809,"gmtModify":1703739508025,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152958607","repostId":"2148808400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150517724,"gmtCreate":1624921505068,"gmtModify":1703847769587,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150517724","repostId":"2146002531","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128080212,"gmtCreate":1624495318936,"gmtModify":1703838254342,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks.","listText":"Thanks.","text":"Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128080212","repostId":"2145086880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145086880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624415733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145086880?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 10:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Inflation trading\" can take a break","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145086880","media":"首席经济学家论坛","summary":"当分析师和媒体同志们还在讨论“通胀”和“滞胀”的时候，市场已经开始在交易通缩了：\n1、近期10年期美债收益率明显下行，而且30年期的下行更多，市场收益率平坦化了，弄得美股的金融股开始下跌，因为平坦化的","content":"<p>While analysts and media comrades are still discussing \"inflation\" and \"stagflation\", the market is already trading deflation:</p><p><b>1. Recently, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped significantly, and the yield of 30-year bonds has dropped even more. The market yield has flattened, which has caused the financial stocks of U.S. stocks to begin to fall, because the flattened yield curve is obviously not conducive to financial stocks;</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41e5ab0e766c9ad9f0ba20a3b94394e\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The inflation expectation fitted by the difference between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds also dropped significantly after the interest rate meeting, dropping by about 20 BP from the high of nearly 2.5% in June to now</b>；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b9efa46c7de85be5df95df824a853b\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. The real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectation. When the nominal interest rate falls, gold continues to fall, and the price of gold has always been inversely related to the real interest rate in Treasury Bond, USA</b>That is to say, the real interest rate actually rises when the nominal interest rate falls, which only shows that the deflation expectation is indeed strong;</p><p><b>4. The expectation of unilateral rise in commodities seems to no longer exist</b>In the case of copper, copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange rose by 24,925 tonnes, a 17% jump. After a circle of research, it is said that because the supply and demand of copper itself are not so good, the reason why the copper price is strong largely depends on the loose liquidity support. Under the expectation of price increase, the industrial chain buys up rather than down, and the inventory is implicit. However, now the expectation of the Federal Reserve's rate hike is ahead of schedule, and the State Reserve has also sold its inventory directly to downstream enterprises. When the expectation of price increase is gone, the hidden inventory of hoarding goods is directly explicit, and the expectation of price increase has been shaken.</p><p><b>5. Judging from the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, the market style preference of U.S. stocks has also changed significantly, and the Nasdaq obviously outperformed the Dow</b>Growth performance is significantly stronger than cycle and value.</p><p>So, the question arises, what exactly happened that made the market's expectations shift so quickly?</p><p>To answer this question, first briefly analyze how inflation came about.</p><p><b>First, the origin of inflation</b></p><p>There is a fundamental difference between this round of quantitative easing in the United States and the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>This time, the United States directly distributed the bills released by the Federal Reserve to residents through fiscal stimulus. In the 2008 financial crisis, quantitative easing gave the bills to financial institutions to help them deal with bad debts and illiquid assets.</p><p>Giving banknotes to residents can directly create aggregate demand, while giving them to financial institutions can only create aggregate demand when entities have financing needs.</p><p>Because the demand stimulation mode of helicopter money is separated from the traditional historical experience, the speed of production adjustment is slower than the speed of demand expansion, which leads to supply chain bottlenecks and shortage of commodities at the production end.</p><p>Looking at the data of inventory-to-sales ratio in the United States can explain some problems. The seasonally adjusted inventory-to-sales ratio of retailers is the lowest, only 1.07, and the inventory of wholesalers is also relatively low, with 1.22. However, the inventory-to-sales ratio of manufacturers is as high as 1.48, which is still at a high level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48ebb5dc27d1a4d9b56b06e650782960\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What does that mean?</p><p>This shows that after the benefits were paid in the United States, the consumer demand of American people to buy and buy was too strong, resulting in retailers being bought out of stock. However, because the labor force is still receiving unemployment benefits, they are unwilling to come back to work, and those who come back to work are mainly in the service industry, not the manufacturing industry. In addition, the raw materials are expensive and the transportation capacity is tight, so the production has not recovered.</p><p>The monthly retail data of the United States in May was $620.2 billion, while the monthly retail data of the United States in 2019 was just over $500 billion. Looking at the industrial production index, it was less than 100 in May, but about 102 in 2019.</p><p>In other words, consumption is well above pre-pandemic, but production has not recovered to pre-pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd06a9419c601db0a7cd0d4b4b66049\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Originally, import suppliers in the United States had more choices, such as forcing China's industrial chain to move to places with lower labor costs (India and Southeast Asia) by attacking China's textile industry and pushing up upstream costs. Since consumer demand is good and production is insufficient, how should the gap between supply and demand be met? We can only rely on imports.</p><p>Unexpectedly, the pandemic that emerged in India in April disrupted this plan. The epidemic not only appeared in India, but also rapidly spread to Southeast Asian countries, Taiwan Province and Japan, which are mostly production bases in the world. As a result, China's industrial chain not only did not move outside, but also further gathered production resources in China. Recently, FDI has accelerated its inflow into China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c45b93dd234e782b6886c74a10046\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the gap of retail inventory in the United States is rigid, and countries and regions with production capacity are also shut down due to the new round of epidemic, the gap of consumption and inventory in the United States can basically only be balanced by China's imports.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6894c423cdb48c2a83c6b2eb33a26\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Immovable orders</b></p><p>Now come back to the domestic.</p><p>Since China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, subsidized enterprises through credit during the epidemic, and preserved enterprises and production capacity. Therefore, from last year to now, China has always been the backbone of stabilizing global inflation. The global supply system is highly dependent on China's production. The shipping cost has increased by more than 4-5 times compared with that before the epidemic, and the stocks related to shipping have also increased several times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2d563c458f06a2b983ad41fdf8636d9\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, looking at the current economic data, the new export orders of PMI in May were only 48.3%, which was below the withering line. Compared with the previous value of 50.4%, there was an obvious downward trend. The export growth rate in May was 27.9%, which was not as good as the previous value of 32.3%. Now the market is beginning to discuss the peak of external demand.</p><p>Logically and in fact, enterprises should not be short of orders, because at present, overseas can only rely on China's production capacity.</p><p>We tend to think that the decline in new export orders is not because enterprises have no orders, but because enterprises dare not take orders easily.</p><p>Why are businesses afraid to take orders? The main reason is that the upstream commodities go up too fast, and they lose money when they take orders.</p><p>There are three main reasons for the rapid rise in upstream commodity prices:</p><p>1. The demand of the United States can be printed by printing money. Most non-ferrous metals are priced in US dollars. The downward trend of the US dollar and the expansion of demand itself are good for upstream commodities.</p><p>2. The upstream supply can't be opened, and some of them can't resume work because of the lack of vaccines in emerging markets. The spread of the epidemic in India has aggravated this trend. For example, the tight semiconductor supply chain, the supply of scrap copper and some rare minerals have been disturbed; Some are because the unions are strong; Others feel that the demand is not sustainable, and the short-term demand is only printed by the United States, which is not sustainable. Now, it will be in the next three years from the expansion of production capacity to the release of output, but if there is no such good demand in the future, it will lose money, so it is better to maintain the oligopoly while the price rises now and earn enough cash flow at the moment.</p><p>3. For domestic commodities with pricing power, due to the \"double carbon\" goal, safety production and other demands, the market expects to reduce production, resulting in hidden inventory. Moreover, the downstream will also expect that the supply will be in short supply in the future, so they can only stock up in panic at present, which intensifies the expected upstream price increase.</p><p>From the data point of view, in May, PPI was as high as 9% year-on-year, while CPI was only 1.3% year-on-year. Both the price of PMI raw materials minus the price of finished products and the price of PPI raw materials minus the price of PPI processing reached a record high year-on-year, which shows that the downstream manufacturing links are constantly enduring upstream inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf605a70afe88045b7636a1a9c9e0b19\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, everything has to have a degree. When the contradiction of upstream rise accumulates to a certain extent, enterprises will naturally dare not accept orders if they \"increase income but not profit\" and \"are thankless\" for a long time, because the more orders they receive, the more money they will lose.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e11053c2e74d92908dd4a04aa0cfcda\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Mysterious interest rate meeting</b></p><p>The most interesting point of the June interest rate meeting is that Taper, which the market pays attention to, basically doesn't mention much, and the statement is very vague. It only says that the premise of Taper opening is to achieve the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy, and the standard of \"substantial progress\" is determined by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>However, what surprised the market most at the June interest rate meeting was that rate hike expected ahead of schedule, thinking that the number of members who should be rate hike in 2022 rose from 4 to 7, and the number of members who should be rate hike in 2023 rose from 7 to 13.</p><p>On the whole, the June interest rate meeting is to guide the rate hike to advance its expectations, and to \"shut up\" Taper, which the market is most concerned about.</p><p>The point is, what is the Fed's intention in doing this?</p><p>After the interest rate meeting, the market took the combination of the sharp rise of the US dollar and the decline of the yield of 10-year US bonds. This trend combination is very confusing.</p><p>Let's first guess why the Fed kept quiet about Taper.</p><p>In the first quarter, because the market formed an optimistic expectation that the U.S. economy would recover rapidly after effective vaccination, and the market's expectation of inflation was very high at that time, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds rose very rapidly in the first quarter, and it rose from less than 1% to a high of 1.78% at the end of March in a few trading days.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve believes that the market expectations have gone too far ahead, constantly emphasizing that inflation is temporary and does not cater to the market expectations. In the second quarter, the expansion of the Federal Reserve also continued. Under the background of huge fiscal deposits, all kinds of short-term interest rates were pressed to around 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54f3462ee6ddf13338f6b301b11d78b\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There is a reason why the Fed did this in the second quarter. In the first quarter, although vaccines were being vaccinated rapidly and the U.S. economy benefited from vaccines, it was indeed recovering rapidly, but both the number of jobs and the rate of salary growth were far from reaching the pre-epidemic level.</p><p>Withdrawal from easing means that the finance will decline, but there is still high uncertainty about whether the economic environment in the first quarter can absorb the labor force returned due to welfare withdrawal.</p><p>But by the end of the second quarter, it was clear that the economy had become overheated and the labor market was in short supply. Wages are rising at the same time as the number of job openings is rising.</p><p>Recently, the number of job openings in the United States has reached 9.29 million, compared with about 7 million in 2019, and the job vacancy rate is as high as 6%, while the average level in 2019 is about 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fb48b1ad455cf8f930a98f6abb2752\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>By this time, due to the overheating of the job market, the basis for the withdrawal of unemployment benefits has been initially established. What is holding back employment recovery is no longer a weak economic recovery, but a slow recovery in the labor market because the benefits even exceed the wages that many employers can pay. So starting in June, some states have started eliminating the $300-a-week unemployment benefit.</p><p>We believe that Taper \"keeps his mouth shut\", and the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy that the Federal Reserve wants, with high probability, refers to the obvious increase in employment data after the withdrawal of unemployment benefits, which can verify that the U.S. economy is completely on the right track.</p><p>This is why the interest rate meeting did not raise the unemployment rate target, and it remained at the unemployment level of 4.5% after the continuous new jobs were lower than expected, because the Federal Reserve expects that after the unemployment benefits are withdrawn, the labor force will gradually return to the job market.</p><p>In short, the target conditions of \"substantial progress\" desired by the Fed can only be met after there is really a significant improvement in job creation. Only then will the Fed seriously consider whether the size of the quantitative easing should be reduced.</p><p>Let's review how inflation in the United States formed.</p><p>The first is that the money printing machine gives money to residents, which leads consumers to \"buy, buy, buy\"; The second is that local production has not been repaired, because the employment force has not returned, logistics costs have risen, and the supply of upstream raw materials is scarce (such as the lack of cores for cars and the lack of timber for building houses); The third is that raw material prices, freight and other costs have risen too fast, and China can't accept new export orders.</p><p>Against the background of rapid demand expansion and relatively tight supply, we see that U.S. inflation is characterized by \"infinite rise\". Because the supply simply can't match the speed of demand expansion, the residential department can't buy goods even if it wants to buy them, so the price can only jump.</p><p>This is very similar to the U.S. housing market. Existing home sales data have been declining since the beginning of this year, but this is not because demand has weakened, because the selling price of existing home sales is still accelerating up, and at the same time, existing home inventory in the United States is being consumed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95300d19a8a8ee5d831b8f969ae8b639\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In order to alleviate inflationary pressure, the logic is actually very simple. Either suppress demand, such as paying less welfare, or guide employment to return to various positions and start production. When welfare goes down, demand weakens, and production increases, inflationary pressures naturally go down.</p><p>The key now is whether the follow-up employment can go up, which in turn depends on:</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>After immunization, the strength of the recovery of the service industry in the United States, if the production and supply of oil prices are relatively stable, the rise and fall of oil prices can be used as a high-frequency agent indicator of service industry repair;</p><p>2. Have the small and medium-sized enterprises and supply chains in the United States been damaged in the medium and long term due to the epidemic? If so, the supply chain and production links in the United States can't absorb many jobs, so they can't repair production.</p><p>These macroeconomic variables, at least from the present point of view, are still uncertain. The answer will gradually be clear until the unemployment benefits are withdrawn and whether employment can increase.</p><p>Therefore, before the employment volume fills the gap, the Federal Reserve will not be busy mentioning Taper, and it will not quit paying benefits to the residential sector so soon. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Labor, 70% of unemployment benefits will not be withdrawn until the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>If the United States can't neither curb demand nor expand production in the short term, there is only one way to alleviate inflation: reduce upstream costs, devalue the exchange rates of producing countries, and replenish retail inventories by expanding imports to producing countries.</p><p>This is why the Federal Reserve dares not mention Taper, because there is still some uncertainty about whether the job market can be repaired, but the Federal Reserve is willing to advance the market's rate hike expectation and pull the US dollar up, because this can not only depreciate the exchange rate of producing countries and then expand imports, but also suppress the price of upstream commodities, give the country and producing countries some production profits, and facilitate the reconstruction of retail inventory.</p><p><b>Market implications</b></p><p>At this point in the story, we think the logic of the follow-up market is very clear.</p><p>At least in the short term, there is no need to pay too much attention to whether the Fed will Taper, because this will only happen after the confirmation that the employment gap will be repaired, and then it will become the focus of market pricing.</p><p>Nowadays, the inflation or stagflation that everyone is hot about is essentially the result of a sharp mismatch between supply and demand. When the elasticity of supply is weak to a certain extent, inflation appears in the form of \"infinite rise\".</p><p>Therefore, the main contradiction of the global economy is no longer to continue to issue money to raise the aggregate demand and keep prices going up, but to repair the fragile supply chain and ease the expectation of inflation through supply repair.</p><p>In other words, behind market pricing deflation is not necessarily the weakening of pricing economic demand, but more likely the short-term repair of pricing supply chain bottlenecks.</p><p>If the United States is unable to rebuild its own inventories through rebalancing demand-production in the short term, the problem of solving supply chain bottlenecks needs to be solved by expanding imports.</p><p>From this perspective, suppressing the price of upstream commodities will become the consensus of China and the United States at this stage because the cost of production and supply chain rises too fast to accept orders.</p><p>At present, the focus of the wrestling between the two countries will not be \"peppering noodles\", but may be concentrated in the field of scientific and technological innovation that will form a \"technological generation difference\".</p><p>Therefore, at present, it is best not to expect that commodity prices will rise unilaterally. Gambling on the high probability of commodity prices continuing to rise unilaterally will lead to losses.</p><p>In fact, the support of commodity price increases is not entirely due to how strong the current demand is, and the expectation that demand exceeds supply has played a great role.</p><p>The low inventory of many commodities is not necessarily caused by the current strong demand and insufficient supply, but because there is an expectation that the future demand will be much greater than the supply, which leads to downstream panic hoarding, superimposed traders' inventory hoarding, and price rises lead to inventory recession, which further drives the price rise.</p><p>Once the expectation of a unilateral price rise is gone, the hidden inventory runs out.</p><p>If the United States needs to alleviate the contradiction between insufficient inventory of consumer goods through imports and the depreciation of RMB exchange rate, it means that China's exports will remain high in the third quarter.</p><p>This round of domestic pressure on real estate and infrastructure, whether industrial production or manufacturing investment, is basically driven by exports. As long as exports can remain high, it means that the economic fundamentals in the third quarter are at least not weak.</p><p>As long as there are fundamentals, the risk appetite of stocks can be guaranteed, and if the upstream price increase can really be controlled, the profit margin of the middle and lower reaches will come out. You can pay attention to the opportunities of the growth sector, especially the policy premium of independent and controllable underlying core components and materials.</p><p>Of course, the \"inflation trade\" can take a break.</p>","source":"lsy1583127396478","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Inflation trading\" can take a break</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Inflation trading\" can take a break\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">首席经济学家论坛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 10:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While analysts and media comrades are still discussing \"inflation\" and \"stagflation\", the market is already trading deflation:</p><p><b>1. Recently, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped significantly, and the yield of 30-year bonds has dropped even more. The market yield has flattened, which has caused the financial stocks of U.S. stocks to begin to fall, because the flattened yield curve is obviously not conducive to financial stocks;</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41e5ab0e766c9ad9f0ba20a3b94394e\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The inflation expectation fitted by the difference between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds also dropped significantly after the interest rate meeting, dropping by about 20 BP from the high of nearly 2.5% in June to now</b>；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b9efa46c7de85be5df95df824a853b\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. The real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectation. When the nominal interest rate falls, gold continues to fall, and the price of gold has always been inversely related to the real interest rate in Treasury Bond, USA</b>That is to say, the real interest rate actually rises when the nominal interest rate falls, which only shows that the deflation expectation is indeed strong;</p><p><b>4. The expectation of unilateral rise in commodities seems to no longer exist</b>In the case of copper, copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange rose by 24,925 tonnes, a 17% jump. After a circle of research, it is said that because the supply and demand of copper itself are not so good, the reason why the copper price is strong largely depends on the loose liquidity support. Under the expectation of price increase, the industrial chain buys up rather than down, and the inventory is implicit. However, now the expectation of the Federal Reserve's rate hike is ahead of schedule, and the State Reserve has also sold its inventory directly to downstream enterprises. When the expectation of price increase is gone, the hidden inventory of hoarding goods is directly explicit, and the expectation of price increase has been shaken.</p><p><b>5. Judging from the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, the market style preference of U.S. stocks has also changed significantly, and the Nasdaq obviously outperformed the Dow</b>Growth performance is significantly stronger than cycle and value.</p><p>So, the question arises, what exactly happened that made the market's expectations shift so quickly?</p><p>To answer this question, first briefly analyze how inflation came about.</p><p><b>First, the origin of inflation</b></p><p>There is a fundamental difference between this round of quantitative easing in the United States and the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>This time, the United States directly distributed the bills released by the Federal Reserve to residents through fiscal stimulus. In the 2008 financial crisis, quantitative easing gave the bills to financial institutions to help them deal with bad debts and illiquid assets.</p><p>Giving banknotes to residents can directly create aggregate demand, while giving them to financial institutions can only create aggregate demand when entities have financing needs.</p><p>Because the demand stimulation mode of helicopter money is separated from the traditional historical experience, the speed of production adjustment is slower than the speed of demand expansion, which leads to supply chain bottlenecks and shortage of commodities at the production end.</p><p>Looking at the data of inventory-to-sales ratio in the United States can explain some problems. The seasonally adjusted inventory-to-sales ratio of retailers is the lowest, only 1.07, and the inventory of wholesalers is also relatively low, with 1.22. However, the inventory-to-sales ratio of manufacturers is as high as 1.48, which is still at a high level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48ebb5dc27d1a4d9b56b06e650782960\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What does that mean?</p><p>This shows that after the benefits were paid in the United States, the consumer demand of American people to buy and buy was too strong, resulting in retailers being bought out of stock. However, because the labor force is still receiving unemployment benefits, they are unwilling to come back to work, and those who come back to work are mainly in the service industry, not the manufacturing industry. In addition, the raw materials are expensive and the transportation capacity is tight, so the production has not recovered.</p><p>The monthly retail data of the United States in May was $620.2 billion, while the monthly retail data of the United States in 2019 was just over $500 billion. Looking at the industrial production index, it was less than 100 in May, but about 102 in 2019.</p><p>In other words, consumption is well above pre-pandemic, but production has not recovered to pre-pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd06a9419c601db0a7cd0d4b4b66049\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Originally, import suppliers in the United States had more choices, such as forcing China's industrial chain to move to places with lower labor costs (India and Southeast Asia) by attacking China's textile industry and pushing up upstream costs. Since consumer demand is good and production is insufficient, how should the gap between supply and demand be met? We can only rely on imports.</p><p>Unexpectedly, the pandemic that emerged in India in April disrupted this plan. The epidemic not only appeared in India, but also rapidly spread to Southeast Asian countries, Taiwan Province and Japan, which are mostly production bases in the world. As a result, China's industrial chain not only did not move outside, but also further gathered production resources in China. Recently, FDI has accelerated its inflow into China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c45b93dd234e782b6886c74a10046\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the gap of retail inventory in the United States is rigid, and countries and regions with production capacity are also shut down due to the new round of epidemic, the gap of consumption and inventory in the United States can basically only be balanced by China's imports.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6894c423cdb48c2a83c6b2eb33a26\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Immovable orders</b></p><p>Now come back to the domestic.</p><p>Since China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, subsidized enterprises through credit during the epidemic, and preserved enterprises and production capacity. Therefore, from last year to now, China has always been the backbone of stabilizing global inflation. The global supply system is highly dependent on China's production. The shipping cost has increased by more than 4-5 times compared with that before the epidemic, and the stocks related to shipping have also increased several times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2d563c458f06a2b983ad41fdf8636d9\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, looking at the current economic data, the new export orders of PMI in May were only 48.3%, which was below the withering line. Compared with the previous value of 50.4%, there was an obvious downward trend. The export growth rate in May was 27.9%, which was not as good as the previous value of 32.3%. Now the market is beginning to discuss the peak of external demand.</p><p>Logically and in fact, enterprises should not be short of orders, because at present, overseas can only rely on China's production capacity.</p><p>We tend to think that the decline in new export orders is not because enterprises have no orders, but because enterprises dare not take orders easily.</p><p>Why are businesses afraid to take orders? The main reason is that the upstream commodities go up too fast, and they lose money when they take orders.</p><p>There are three main reasons for the rapid rise in upstream commodity prices:</p><p>1. The demand of the United States can be printed by printing money. Most non-ferrous metals are priced in US dollars. The downward trend of the US dollar and the expansion of demand itself are good for upstream commodities.</p><p>2. The upstream supply can't be opened, and some of them can't resume work because of the lack of vaccines in emerging markets. The spread of the epidemic in India has aggravated this trend. For example, the tight semiconductor supply chain, the supply of scrap copper and some rare minerals have been disturbed; Some are because the unions are strong; Others feel that the demand is not sustainable, and the short-term demand is only printed by the United States, which is not sustainable. Now, it will be in the next three years from the expansion of production capacity to the release of output, but if there is no such good demand in the future, it will lose money, so it is better to maintain the oligopoly while the price rises now and earn enough cash flow at the moment.</p><p>3. For domestic commodities with pricing power, due to the \"double carbon\" goal, safety production and other demands, the market expects to reduce production, resulting in hidden inventory. Moreover, the downstream will also expect that the supply will be in short supply in the future, so they can only stock up in panic at present, which intensifies the expected upstream price increase.</p><p>From the data point of view, in May, PPI was as high as 9% year-on-year, while CPI was only 1.3% year-on-year. Both the price of PMI raw materials minus the price of finished products and the price of PPI raw materials minus the price of PPI processing reached a record high year-on-year, which shows that the downstream manufacturing links are constantly enduring upstream inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf605a70afe88045b7636a1a9c9e0b19\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, everything has to have a degree. When the contradiction of upstream rise accumulates to a certain extent, enterprises will naturally dare not accept orders if they \"increase income but not profit\" and \"are thankless\" for a long time, because the more orders they receive, the more money they will lose.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e11053c2e74d92908dd4a04aa0cfcda\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Mysterious interest rate meeting</b></p><p>The most interesting point of the June interest rate meeting is that Taper, which the market pays attention to, basically doesn't mention much, and the statement is very vague. It only says that the premise of Taper opening is to achieve the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy, and the standard of \"substantial progress\" is determined by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>However, what surprised the market most at the June interest rate meeting was that rate hike expected ahead of schedule, thinking that the number of members who should be rate hike in 2022 rose from 4 to 7, and the number of members who should be rate hike in 2023 rose from 7 to 13.</p><p>On the whole, the June interest rate meeting is to guide the rate hike to advance its expectations, and to \"shut up\" Taper, which the market is most concerned about.</p><p>The point is, what is the Fed's intention in doing this?</p><p>After the interest rate meeting, the market took the combination of the sharp rise of the US dollar and the decline of the yield of 10-year US bonds. This trend combination is very confusing.</p><p>Let's first guess why the Fed kept quiet about Taper.</p><p>In the first quarter, because the market formed an optimistic expectation that the U.S. economy would recover rapidly after effective vaccination, and the market's expectation of inflation was very high at that time, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds rose very rapidly in the first quarter, and it rose from less than 1% to a high of 1.78% at the end of March in a few trading days.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve believes that the market expectations have gone too far ahead, constantly emphasizing that inflation is temporary and does not cater to the market expectations. In the second quarter, the expansion of the Federal Reserve also continued. Under the background of huge fiscal deposits, all kinds of short-term interest rates were pressed to around 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54f3462ee6ddf13338f6b301b11d78b\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There is a reason why the Fed did this in the second quarter. In the first quarter, although vaccines were being vaccinated rapidly and the U.S. economy benefited from vaccines, it was indeed recovering rapidly, but both the number of jobs and the rate of salary growth were far from reaching the pre-epidemic level.</p><p>Withdrawal from easing means that the finance will decline, but there is still high uncertainty about whether the economic environment in the first quarter can absorb the labor force returned due to welfare withdrawal.</p><p>But by the end of the second quarter, it was clear that the economy had become overheated and the labor market was in short supply. Wages are rising at the same time as the number of job openings is rising.</p><p>Recently, the number of job openings in the United States has reached 9.29 million, compared with about 7 million in 2019, and the job vacancy rate is as high as 6%, while the average level in 2019 is about 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fb48b1ad455cf8f930a98f6abb2752\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>By this time, due to the overheating of the job market, the basis for the withdrawal of unemployment benefits has been initially established. What is holding back employment recovery is no longer a weak economic recovery, but a slow recovery in the labor market because the benefits even exceed the wages that many employers can pay. So starting in June, some states have started eliminating the $300-a-week unemployment benefit.</p><p>We believe that Taper \"keeps his mouth shut\", and the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy that the Federal Reserve wants, with high probability, refers to the obvious increase in employment data after the withdrawal of unemployment benefits, which can verify that the U.S. economy is completely on the right track.</p><p>This is why the interest rate meeting did not raise the unemployment rate target, and it remained at the unemployment level of 4.5% after the continuous new jobs were lower than expected, because the Federal Reserve expects that after the unemployment benefits are withdrawn, the labor force will gradually return to the job market.</p><p>In short, the target conditions of \"substantial progress\" desired by the Fed can only be met after there is really a significant improvement in job creation. Only then will the Fed seriously consider whether the size of the quantitative easing should be reduced.</p><p>Let's review how inflation in the United States formed.</p><p>The first is that the money printing machine gives money to residents, which leads consumers to \"buy, buy, buy\"; The second is that local production has not been repaired, because the employment force has not returned, logistics costs have risen, and the supply of upstream raw materials is scarce (such as the lack of cores for cars and the lack of timber for building houses); The third is that raw material prices, freight and other costs have risen too fast, and China can't accept new export orders.</p><p>Against the background of rapid demand expansion and relatively tight supply, we see that U.S. inflation is characterized by \"infinite rise\". Because the supply simply can't match the speed of demand expansion, the residential department can't buy goods even if it wants to buy them, so the price can only jump.</p><p>This is very similar to the U.S. housing market. Existing home sales data have been declining since the beginning of this year, but this is not because demand has weakened, because the selling price of existing home sales is still accelerating up, and at the same time, existing home inventory in the United States is being consumed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95300d19a8a8ee5d831b8f969ae8b639\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In order to alleviate inflationary pressure, the logic is actually very simple. Either suppress demand, such as paying less welfare, or guide employment to return to various positions and start production. When welfare goes down, demand weakens, and production increases, inflationary pressures naturally go down.</p><p>The key now is whether the follow-up employment can go up, which in turn depends on:</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>After immunization, the strength of the recovery of the service industry in the United States, if the production and supply of oil prices are relatively stable, the rise and fall of oil prices can be used as a high-frequency agent indicator of service industry repair;</p><p>2. Have the small and medium-sized enterprises and supply chains in the United States been damaged in the medium and long term due to the epidemic? If so, the supply chain and production links in the United States can't absorb many jobs, so they can't repair production.</p><p>These macroeconomic variables, at least from the present point of view, are still uncertain. The answer will gradually be clear until the unemployment benefits are withdrawn and whether employment can increase.</p><p>Therefore, before the employment volume fills the gap, the Federal Reserve will not be busy mentioning Taper, and it will not quit paying benefits to the residential sector so soon. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Labor, 70% of unemployment benefits will not be withdrawn until the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>If the United States can't neither curb demand nor expand production in the short term, there is only one way to alleviate inflation: reduce upstream costs, devalue the exchange rates of producing countries, and replenish retail inventories by expanding imports to producing countries.</p><p>This is why the Federal Reserve dares not mention Taper, because there is still some uncertainty about whether the job market can be repaired, but the Federal Reserve is willing to advance the market's rate hike expectation and pull the US dollar up, because this can not only depreciate the exchange rate of producing countries and then expand imports, but also suppress the price of upstream commodities, give the country and producing countries some production profits, and facilitate the reconstruction of retail inventory.</p><p><b>Market implications</b></p><p>At this point in the story, we think the logic of the follow-up market is very clear.</p><p>At least in the short term, there is no need to pay too much attention to whether the Fed will Taper, because this will only happen after the confirmation that the employment gap will be repaired, and then it will become the focus of market pricing.</p><p>Nowadays, the inflation or stagflation that everyone is hot about is essentially the result of a sharp mismatch between supply and demand. When the elasticity of supply is weak to a certain extent, inflation appears in the form of \"infinite rise\".</p><p>Therefore, the main contradiction of the global economy is no longer to continue to issue money to raise the aggregate demand and keep prices going up, but to repair the fragile supply chain and ease the expectation of inflation through supply repair.</p><p>In other words, behind market pricing deflation is not necessarily the weakening of pricing economic demand, but more likely the short-term repair of pricing supply chain bottlenecks.</p><p>If the United States is unable to rebuild its own inventories through rebalancing demand-production in the short term, the problem of solving supply chain bottlenecks needs to be solved by expanding imports.</p><p>From this perspective, suppressing the price of upstream commodities will become the consensus of China and the United States at this stage because the cost of production and supply chain rises too fast to accept orders.</p><p>At present, the focus of the wrestling between the two countries will not be \"peppering noodles\", but may be concentrated in the field of scientific and technological innovation that will form a \"technological generation difference\".</p><p>Therefore, at present, it is best not to expect that commodity prices will rise unilaterally. Gambling on the high probability of commodity prices continuing to rise unilaterally will lead to losses.</p><p>In fact, the support of commodity price increases is not entirely due to how strong the current demand is, and the expectation that demand exceeds supply has played a great role.</p><p>The low inventory of many commodities is not necessarily caused by the current strong demand and insufficient supply, but because there is an expectation that the future demand will be much greater than the supply, which leads to downstream panic hoarding, superimposed traders' inventory hoarding, and price rises lead to inventory recession, which further drives the price rise.</p><p>Once the expectation of a unilateral price rise is gone, the hidden inventory runs out.</p><p>If the United States needs to alleviate the contradiction between insufficient inventory of consumer goods through imports and the depreciation of RMB exchange rate, it means that China's exports will remain high in the third quarter.</p><p>This round of domestic pressure on real estate and infrastructure, whether industrial production or manufacturing investment, is basically driven by exports. As long as exports can remain high, it means that the economic fundamentals in the third quarter are at least not weak.</p><p>As long as there are fundamentals, the risk appetite of stocks can be guaranteed, and if the upstream price increase can really be controlled, the profit margin of the middle and lower reaches will come out. You can pay attention to the opportunities of the growth sector, especially the policy premium of independent and controllable underlying core components and materials.</p><p>Of course, the \"inflation trade\" can take a break.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://m.cls.cn/depth/773257\">首席经济学家论坛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://m.cls.cn/depth/773257","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145086880","content_text":"当分析师和媒体同志们还在讨论“通胀”和“滞胀”的时候，市场已经开始在交易通缩了：\n1、近期10年期美债收益率明显下行，而且30年期的下行更多，市场收益率平坦化了，弄得美股的金融股开始下跌，因为平坦化的收益率曲线显然不利于金融股；\n\n2、通过10年期美债的名义利率和实际利率差值拟合的通胀预期在议息会议后也明显下行，从6月近2.5%的高点到现在下降了大概20多个BP；\n\n3、实际利率等于名义利率减去通胀预期，当名义利率下降的时候，黄金仍然在继续下跌，而黄金价格历来与美国国债的实际利率有反向关系，也就是说，实际利率在名义利率下降的时候竟然是上升的，这只能说明通缩预期确实比较强；\n4、大宗商品单边上涨预期似乎已不存在了，以铜为例，伦敦金属交易所的铜库存增加了24925吨，猛增17％。调研了一圈下来，说是因为铜的供需本身没那么好，铜价之所以强势很大程度上依赖的是宽松的流动性支撑，在涨价预期下，产业链买涨不买跌，库存都隐性化了，但现在美联储加息预期提前了，国储也抛售库存直接给下游企业了，当涨价预期没有了之后，囤货的隐性库存直接显性化了，涨价预期已经被动摇了。\n5、从近期美股市场的表现来看，美股的市场风格偏好也发生了明显的变化，纳指明显跑赢道指，成长的表现要显著强于周期和价值。\n那么，问题来了，究竟发生了什么让市场的预期转变得如此迅速？\n为了解答这一问题，先简要分析一下通胀是怎么来的。\n一、通胀的由来\n这一轮美国的量化宽松和2008年金融危机是有本质区别的。\n这一次美国直接通过财政刺激，把美联储放出去的票子发到了居民手里，而2008年金融危机的量化宽松是把钞票给到金融机构那，帮助金融机构处理坏账和非流动性资产。\n把钞票给到居民手里，直接可以创造总需求，而给到金融机构手里，还要等实体有融资需求了，才能创造总需求。\n由于直升机撒钱的需求刺激模式脱离了传统的历史经验，生产调整的速度慢于需求扩张的速度，这就导致生产端有供应链瓶颈和商品的供不应求。\n看美国库销比的数据就可以说明一些问题。经季调的零售商库销比是最低的，只有1.07，批发商库存也比较低，有1.22，然而制造商库销比却高达1.48，还处于高位。\n\n这说明什么呢？\n这说明美国发了福利后，美国人民买买买的消费需求太旺盛了，导致零售商那都被买得没货了，但由于劳动力还在领失业救济，不愿意回来工作，回来工作的也主要在服务业，而不是制造业，再加上原材料贵、运力紧张，所以生产是没有怎么恢复的。\n美国5月单月的零售数据是6202亿美元，而2019年美国单月的零售数据也就5000亿美元出头，再看工业生产指数，5月不到100，但2019年有102左右。\n换句话说，消费已远在疫情前以上，但生产还没有恢复到疫情前。\n\n本来美国的进口供应商有更多的选择，比如通过对中国的纺织业发难和推高上游成本，倒逼中国产业链外迁到人力成本更低的地方（印度、东南亚）。既然消费需求好，生产又不足，那供需缺口应该怎么满足呢？也只能靠进口了。\n没想到的是，4月印度出现的疫情搅乱了这一计划。疫情不仅出现在了印度，还快速扩散到了东南亚国家、台湾地区和日本，这些地方也多为世界的生产基地，结果导致中国产业链不仅没有外迁，反而使生产资源进一步向国内集聚， FDI近期是加速往国内流入的。\n\n由于美国的零售品库存的缺口是刚性的，拥有生产能力的国家和地区也因新一轮疫情停摆，美国消费和库存的缺口基本上只能靠中国的进口来平衡了。\n\n二、接不动的订单\n现在回来看看国内。\n由于中国率先控制了疫情，疫情期间通过信贷补贴了企业，保住了企业和生产能力，所以从去年到现在，中国一直都是稳定全球通胀的中坚力量，全球的供应体系高度依赖于中国的生产，海运费用比疫情前涨了4-5倍都不止，和海运相关的个股涨幅也有好几倍。\n\n但看现在的经济数据，5月PMI新出口订单只有48.3%，到了枯荣线的下面，相比前值50.4%，有较为明显的下行。5月的出口增速为27.9%，也不如前值的32.3%，现在市场关于外需的见顶讨论开始多了起来。\n从逻辑和事实上来讲，企业应该是不会缺订单的，因为当下海外只能依赖中国的产能。\n我们倾向于认为出口新订单的下降不是因为企业没有订单，而是企业不敢轻易接订单了。\n企业为什么不敢接订单呢？主要原因是上游大宗商品上得太快了，接单就亏钱。\n上游大宗商品价格涨得快的原因主要有三个：\n1、美国的需求可以靠印钞票印出来，大多数有色金属是美元定价，美元下行和需求扩张本身就利好上游大宗商品。\n2、上游供给打不开，有的是因为新兴市场缺少疫苗导致无法复工，印度疫情扩散加剧了这一趋势，比如半导体供应链紧张、废铜还有一些稀有矿的供给都受到了扰动；有的是因为工会强势；还有的是觉得需求没有持续性，短期需求好只是美国印出来的，没有可持续性，现在扩产能到产出释放都是未来三年以后的事了，但未来如果没有这么好的需求，就会赔钱，所以不如趁现在价格涨维持寡头垄断，当下赚足现金流就好。\n3、国内有定价权的大宗商品，因“双碳”目标、安全生产等诉求，市场有减产预期，导致库存隐性化，而且下游也会预期未来供应会紧缺，只能当下恐慌性备货，使得上游价格上涨预期加剧。\n从数据来看，5月PPI同比高达9%，而CPI同比仅为1.3%，无论是PMI原材料价格减去产成品价格还是PPI原材料价格同比减去PPI加工价格同比都创下了历史新高，这说明下游生产制造环节在不断忍受着上游的通胀。\n\n但凡事都得有个度，当上游上涨的矛盾积累到了一定程度后，企业长期“增收不增利”、“吃力不讨好”，自然就不敢接订单了，因为订单接得越多，反而会越赔钱。\n\n三、谜一样的议息会议\n6月议息会议最有趣的一点就是市场关注的Taper基本上没怎么提，表述很模糊，只说Taper开启的前提是达到经济取得“实质性进展”的目标，而“实质性进展”的标准是由美联储决定的。\n但6月议息会议最让市场意外的一点是加息预期提前了，认为2022年应当加息的成员从4人上升到了7人，2023年应当加息的成员从7人上升到了13人。\n综合来看，6月议息会议是引导加息预期提前，并且对市场最关注的Taper“闭口不提”。\n关键是，美联储这么做的意图是什么？\n议息会议后，市场走的是美元大幅上涨而10年美债收益率下行的组合，这种走势组合让人很疑惑。\n先来猜测一下，美联储为什么对Taper闭口不提。\n一季度的时候，因为市场形成了疫苗有效接种后美国经济会快速复苏的乐观预期，当时市场对通胀的预期很靠前，所以一季度10年期美债收益率上升的速度非常快，没几个交易日就从不到1%的收益率上行到了3月末1.78%的高点。\n但美联储认为市场预期走得太前了，不断在强调通胀是暂时的，没有去迎合市场预期。二季度美联储的扩表也在继续，在财政存款巨量投放的背景下，各类短端利率都压到了0附近。\n\n二季度美联储这么做也是有原因的。一季度的时候，疫苗虽然在快速接种，美国经济受益于疫苗，确实是在快速修复，但无论是就业数量还是薪资增速，都远没有达到疫情前的水平。\n退出宽松就意味着财政要退坡，但一季度的经济环境是否能吸纳因福利退出而回流的劳动力大军，还是有很高的不确定性的。\n但到了二季度末，很明显可以看到经济已经有了过热的倾向，劳动力市场开始供不应求。工资上涨的同时职位空缺人数也在不断上升。\n近期美国就业职位空缺人数已高达929万人，而2019年差不多就700万人左右，职位空缺率高达6%，而2019年的平均水平也就在4%左右的水平。\n\n到了这个时候，由于就业市场过热，已初步具备失业救济退出的基础。阻碍就业复苏的不再是经济复苏不给力，而是救济金甚至超过了许多雇主可以支付的工资，才导致劳动力市场复苏缓慢。所以从6月开始，已经有部分州开始取消每周300美元的失业救济金。\n我们认为Taper“闭口不提”，美联储要的经济“实质性进展”的目标，大概率指的是失业救济退出以后，就业数据要出现明显的新增，这才能验证美国经济已经彻底走上正轨。\n这也是为什么此次议息会议并没有上调失业率目标，在持续的新增就业低于预期之后还维持在4.5%的失业水平，因为美联储预期失业救济退出之后，劳动力就会逐步回归到就业市场。\n简而言之，只有等到就业新增真的有明显改善后，才能达到美联储要的“实质性进展”的目标条件。也只有等到那个时候，美联储才会认真考虑量化宽松规模是不是要缩减。\n下面我们再来回顾一下美国的通胀是怎么形成的。\n第一个是印钞机给居民发钱导致消费者“买买买”；第二个是本土生产没有修复，因为就业大军没有回归的、物流成本上升和上游原材料供给稀缺（比如汽车缺芯、盖房子缺木材）；第三个是原材料价格、运费等各类成本涨得太快，中国也接不动出口新订单。\n在需求扩张较快和供应相对紧缺的背景下，我们看到美国通胀呈现出了“无量上涨”的特征。由于供给根本匹配不上需求的扩张的速度，居民部门想买都买不到货，价格就只能跳涨了。\n这跟美国房地产市场很像，成屋销售数据从今年年初就开始下降了，但这并不是需求减弱了，因为成屋销售的售价还在加速上行，与此同时，美国成屋库存在被消耗。\n\n要想缓解通胀压力，其实逻辑也很简单，要么抑制需求，比如少发点福利，要么引导就业回归到各个岗位上去，把生产弄起来。福利下去了，需求弱了，而生产变多了，通胀压力自然就下去了。\n现在的关键就是后续就业新增能不能上去，这又取决于：\n1、全民免疫后，美国服务业复苏的强度，如果油价生产供应比较稳定，油价涨跌可以作为服务业修复高频代理指标；\n2、美国的中小企业和供应链是不是因为疫情受到了中长期损害，如果是的话，美国的供应链和生产环节吸纳不了多少就业，也就起不到修复生产的效果。\n这些宏观经济变量，至少从现在来看，还是有不确定性的，要等到失业救济退出后，就业能否放量，答案才能逐渐明晰。\n所以，在就业放量补缺口前，美联储是不会忙着提Taper的，给居民部门发福利也不会那么快退出。从美国劳工部的数据来看，70%的失业救济到了今年三季度末才会陆续退出。\n如果美国短期既做不到抑制需求，也无法扩大生产规模，那缓解通胀就只有一个办法，降上游成本，让生产国的汇率贬值，通过扩大对生产国的进口来补充零售的库存。\n这就是为什么美联储不敢提Taper,因为就业市场能不能修复还有一定的不确定，但美联储愿意把市场的加息预期提前，把美元拉上去，因为这样既可以让生产国的汇率贬值进而扩大进口，也可以打压一下上游大宗的价格，给本国和生产国一些生产的利润，方便重建零售库存。\n四、市场含义\n故事讲到这里，我们认为后续市场的逻辑就非常清晰了。\n至少在短期，没有过于关注美联储是否会Taper的必要，因为这个需要就业缺口修复的确认后才会发生，然后才会成为市场定价的焦点。\n现在大家都热炒的通胀或滞胀，本质上都是供需急剧错配的结果，当供给的弹性弱到一定程度以后，通胀是以“无量上涨”的形式出现的。\n所以，现在全球经济的主要矛盾不再是要继续发钞票去拉高总需求，让物价继续往上走，而是修复脆弱的供应链，通过供给修复来缓和通胀的预期。\n换言之，市场定价通缩的背后不一定是在定价经济需求的走弱，更有可能是在定价供应链瓶颈的短期修复。\n如果美国短期无法通过需求生产的再平衡重建自身的库存，解决供应链瓶颈的问题就需要通过扩大进口来解决。\n由于大宗商品价格上涨使得生产供应链的成本攀升太快，接不动订单，从这个角度来看，打压上游大宗商品的价格在现阶段会成为中美两国的共识。\n两国角力的重点，在当下也不会是“撒胡椒面”式的，而是有可能集中在会形成“技术代差”的科技创新领域。\n所以，当下最好别有大宗商品价格单边上涨的预期，赌大宗商品价格继续单边上涨大概率是会吃亏的。\n其实大宗商品涨价的支撑也不完全是因为当前的需求有多强，求大于供的预期起到了很大的作用。\n很多大宗商品的低库存并一定是因为当下需求旺盛而供应不足导致的，而是因为存在未来需求会远大于供给的预期，导致下游恐慌性囤货，叠加贸易商库存囤积，价格上涨导致库存隐性化，而库存隐性化又进一步驱动了价格上涨。\n一旦价格单边上涨的预期没了，隐藏的库存就都跑出来了。\n如果说美国需要通过进口和人民币汇率贬值来缓解消费品库存不足的矛盾，这意味着中国三季度出口维持高位的问题不大。\n这一轮国内压着房地产和基建，无论是工业生产还是制造业投资，基本上是靠出口驱动的，只要出口还能维持高位，那就意味着三季度经济基本面至少是不弱的。\n只要有基本面搭台，股票的风险偏好就能有保障，而且上游价格涨幅如果真能控制，中下游的盈利空间也就出来了，可以关注成长板块的机会，尤其要关注底层核心零部件和材料自主可控的政策溢价。\n当然，“通胀交易”可以暂歇了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"TNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}