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杨胜胜
杨胜胜
·
2021-04-30
??
Outlook: Besides the explosive non-farm payrolls report, what other highlights are there in May?
5月远不止非农就业数据和美联储动态要关注。
Outlook: Besides the explosive non-farm payrolls report, what other highlights are there in May?
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杨胜胜
杨胜胜
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2021-04-27
？？？？
Biden's tax increase plan has been criticized as meaningless for three main reasons.
在拜登即将揭晓大规模增税计划之际，经济学家兼基金经理丹尼尔·拉考（Daniel Lacalle）却表示，拜登宣布对企业和富人大规模增税根本没有意义。 他认为，增税将对经济增长、投资和就业创造产生影响，
Biden's tax increase plan has been criticized as meaningless for three main reasons.
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杨胜胜
杨胜胜
·
2021-04-25
??
Interview with Ren Zeping: What to do when inflation comes? Housing prices, the stock market, and the future of 2021
4月16日上午10点，国家统计局公布了2021年一季度宏观经济报告，其中有非常多数据，最引人关注的，就是今年一季度我们的GDP同比增长了18.3%。这个亮眼的数据，是建立在去年疫情暴发，中国经济遭遇毁
Interview with Ren Zeping: What to do when inflation comes? Housing prices, the stock market, and the future of 2021
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杨胜胜
杨胜胜
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2021-04-25
?
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杨胜胜
杨胜胜
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2021-04-24
??
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杨胜胜
杨胜胜
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2021-04-23
???
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杨胜胜
杨胜胜
·
2021-04-21
?
Who is better at speculating on Chinese concept stocks, Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Management?
2020年高瓴投资中概股的收益约45亿美元，老虎的收益约48亿美元，两家PE炒股的秘诀是什么？ 老虎和高瓴，已经成为最会炒中概股的两家PE。 老虎环球基金2020年赚了100多亿美元，京东、拼多多两
Who is better at speculating on Chinese concept stocks, Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Management?
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杨胜胜
杨胜胜
·
2021-04-21
666
[Focus] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with Yatsen E-commerce gaining over 10%.
4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。
[Focus] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with Yatsen E-commerce gaining over 10%.
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杨胜胜
杨胜胜
·
2021-04-21
??
[Focus] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with Yatsen E-commerce gaining over 10%.
4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。
[Focus] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with Yatsen E-commerce gaining over 10%.
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杨胜胜
杨胜胜
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2021-02-01
lol
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Unlike last May, as vaccination efforts continue, various entertainment venues are opening one after another, people are getting back on track, and the employment report is also performing well, so there are many things to look forward to in May this year.</p><p>Perhaps the employment data isn't as exciting as the various recreational activities, after all, people haven't participated in recreational activities for a year. However, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April, to be released next Friday (May 7), may cause some turmoil in the stock and bond markets in May.</p><p>Will the employment data continue the strong performance of March? If the performance is strong, will it raise consumer concerns about an overheated economy? How will the Federal Reserve respond? These issues could all have an impact on trading in the coming days or weeks.</p><p>Besides employment data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, there are many other things to watch in May, including first-quarter earnings reports from U.S. companies, the pandemic situation in various countries, the progress of Biden's infrastructure plan, and any news about corporate mergers and acquisitions.<b>However, the jobs report and the Federal Reserve's moves remain the two biggest points to watch.</b></p><p><b>Highlight 1: Will the April non-farm payrolls report be very strong?</b></p><p>Last May, most Americans were struggling with the pandemic, and the employment data released at the time was quite dismal. The jobs report shows that more than 20 million people were unemployed in the United States last April, and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7%.</p><p>By May of this year, the market expected 916,000 new jobs in the United States and the unemployment rate to fall to 6%. Of course, the unemployment rate is still some distance from pre-pandemic levels, and millions of people in the United States are still unemployed. Previous data has also provided us with some references. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the first two weeks hit new lows since the pandemic, both below 600,000, but still very high.</p><p>However, overall, the latest employment report should suggest an improvement in the situation, so everyone can look forward to it.</p><p>The question now is, if the employment data performs well, will this raise concerns about inflation? Briefing Research stated that concerns about inflation had already emerged in the market earlier this year. However, the Federal Reserve's statement on inflation temporarily eased market concerns.</p><p>But recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Large companies such as Kimberly-Clark have announced price increases, stating that they will have to raise prices if rising costs affect their profits. If this is the case, it will inevitably trigger panic again.</p><p>Previously, due to rising inflation concerns, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rose from around 0.9% to 1.77% in the first quarter of this year, a 13-month high.</p><p>Although bond market volatility decreased in April, if the data improves, it cannot be ruled out that volatility will rise sharply again in May. It's important to understand that rising US Treasury yields are often accompanied by inflation concerns, which can be very damaging to growth stocks.</p><p><b>Highlight 2: Will the Federal Reserve signal a hawkish turn?</b></p><p><b>Is it too early to discuss rate hike? The market doesn't think so.</b></p><p>In late April, the CME group (CME) FedWatch forecasting tool showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of 2021 was 10%. Recently, bets on rate hike have suddenly dropped sharply, with Barron's research indicating that the possibility of the Federal Reserve rate hike this year is almost zero. Many analysts also say that the Federal Reserve will not rate hike until the end of 2022 at the earliest. The Federal Reserve itself also predicts that there will be no rate hike before 2023.</p><p><b>Keep an eye on FedWatch's forecasts in May, as the situation may change.</b>。 After all, interest rates have been near zero for a year, and investors are waiting for signals from rate hike. Besides rate hike, investors should also pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve will withdraw its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program.</p><p>However, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to turn hawkish in the near future to be extremely unlikely, as the Fed is currently focused on reducing unemployment and raising inflation above 2%.</p><p>Highlight 3:<b>Are the companies' financial reports consistently strong?</b></p><p>In mid-April, the United States entered earnings season, and most technology, telecommunications, and healthcare companies performed strongly. Of course, some companies also performed unsatisfactorily, exceeding Wall Street's expectations, such as Emirates Airlines; Netflix's financial report was also very disappointing; Furniture companies (Bed, Bath & Beyond) also failed to impress with their financial reports.</p><p>In May, there were also<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>(Walmart),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(Pfizer), Lyft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0MPH.UK\">Deutsche Telekom</a>(T-Mobile)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Large companies including Uber, Moderna, and Deere will release their earnings reports, so investors can continue to pay attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efab2d77547ab9ef255066078501f62d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As earnings reports are released one after another, the tug-of-war between growth stocks and value stocks may continue. So far this year, the S&P 500 (candlestick chart) has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 (purple line). Value stocks performed better in March, while growth stocks and technology stocks fared even better in April. As for which type of stock will perform better in May, we'll have to wait and see.</p><p><b>Highlight 4: Be wary of fluctuations in commodity prices</b></p><p>In addition to the aforementioned developments, investors should also pay attention to commodity prices in May. In April, crude oil, timber, and copper performed strongly, a sign of economic growth, but it may also have squeezed many companies' profit margins.</p><p>It's important to understand that commodity prices affect many companies. If crude oil prices rise to $70 per barrel, it will significantly increase transportation costs and create difficulties for transportation companies. In addition, like Walmart and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Their supply chains are heavily dependent on cheap energy supplies, and if prices soar, their lives will not be easy. Manufacturing and real estate are also affected by copper and timber prices.</p><p><b>Highlight 5: Progress of Biden's infrastructure bill</b></p><p>Finally, we can also keep an eye on the progress of Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure bill. According to foreign media reports, on April 22, the Biden administration proposed raising capital gains tax, causing the stock market to plummet that day. In May, Congress will continue to discuss the plan, and everyone should pay attention to the impact of this tax increase on market sentiment.</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Outlook: Besides the explosive non-farm payrolls report, what other highlights are there in May?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOutlook: Besides the explosive non-farm payrolls report, what other highlights are there in May?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-30 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Zhang Fujian</p><p>May is about to begin. Unlike last May, as vaccination efforts continue, various entertainment venues are opening one after another, people are getting back on track, and the employment report is also performing well, so there are many things to look forward to in May this year.</p><p>Perhaps the employment data isn't as exciting as the various recreational activities, after all, people haven't participated in recreational activities for a year. However, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April, to be released next Friday (May 7), may cause some turmoil in the stock and bond markets in May.</p><p>Will the employment data continue the strong performance of March? If the performance is strong, will it raise consumer concerns about an overheated economy? How will the Federal Reserve respond? These issues could all have an impact on trading in the coming days or weeks.</p><p>Besides employment data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, there are many other things to watch in May, including first-quarter earnings reports from U.S. companies, the pandemic situation in various countries, the progress of Biden's infrastructure plan, and any news about corporate mergers and acquisitions.<b>However, the jobs report and the Federal Reserve's moves remain the two biggest points to watch.</b></p><p><b>Highlight 1: Will the April non-farm payrolls report be very strong?</b></p><p>Last May, most Americans were struggling with the pandemic, and the employment data released at the time was quite dismal. The jobs report shows that more than 20 million people were unemployed in the United States last April, and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7%.</p><p>By May of this year, the market expected 916,000 new jobs in the United States and the unemployment rate to fall to 6%. Of course, the unemployment rate is still some distance from pre-pandemic levels, and millions of people in the United States are still unemployed. Previous data has also provided us with some references. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the first two weeks hit new lows since the pandemic, both below 600,000, but still very high.</p><p>However, overall, the latest employment report should suggest an improvement in the situation, so everyone can look forward to it.</p><p>The question now is, if the employment data performs well, will this raise concerns about inflation? Briefing Research stated that concerns about inflation had already emerged in the market earlier this year. However, the Federal Reserve's statement on inflation temporarily eased market concerns.</p><p>But recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Large companies such as Kimberly-Clark have announced price increases, stating that they will have to raise prices if rising costs affect their profits. If this is the case, it will inevitably trigger panic again.</p><p>Previously, due to rising inflation concerns, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rose from around 0.9% to 1.77% in the first quarter of this year, a 13-month high.</p><p>Although bond market volatility decreased in April, if the data improves, it cannot be ruled out that volatility will rise sharply again in May. It's important to understand that rising US Treasury yields are often accompanied by inflation concerns, which can be very damaging to growth stocks.</p><p><b>Highlight 2: Will the Federal Reserve signal a hawkish turn?</b></p><p><b>Is it too early to discuss rate hike? The market doesn't think so.</b></p><p>In late April, the CME group (CME) FedWatch forecasting tool showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of 2021 was 10%. Recently, bets on rate hike have suddenly dropped sharply, with Barron's research indicating that the possibility of the Federal Reserve rate hike this year is almost zero. Many analysts also say that the Federal Reserve will not rate hike until the end of 2022 at the earliest. The Federal Reserve itself also predicts that there will be no rate hike before 2023.</p><p><b>Keep an eye on FedWatch's forecasts in May, as the situation may change.</b>。 After all, interest rates have been near zero for a year, and investors are waiting for signals from rate hike. Besides rate hike, investors should also pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve will withdraw its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program.</p><p>However, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to turn hawkish in the near future to be extremely unlikely, as the Fed is currently focused on reducing unemployment and raising inflation above 2%.</p><p>Highlight 3:<b>Are the companies' financial reports consistently strong?</b></p><p>In mid-April, the United States entered earnings season, and most technology, telecommunications, and healthcare companies performed strongly. Of course, some companies also performed unsatisfactorily, exceeding Wall Street's expectations, such as Emirates Airlines; Netflix's financial report was also very disappointing; Furniture companies (Bed, Bath & Beyond) also failed to impress with their financial reports.</p><p>In May, there were also<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>(Walmart),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(Pfizer), Lyft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0MPH.UK\">Deutsche Telekom</a>(T-Mobile)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>Large companies including Uber, Moderna, and Deere will release their earnings reports, so investors can continue to pay attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efab2d77547ab9ef255066078501f62d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As earnings reports are released one after another, the tug-of-war between growth stocks and value stocks may continue. So far this year, the S&P 500 (candlestick chart) has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 (purple line). Value stocks performed better in March, while growth stocks and technology stocks fared even better in April. As for which type of stock will perform better in May, we'll have to wait and see.</p><p><b>Highlight 4: Be wary of fluctuations in commodity prices</b></p><p>In addition to the aforementioned developments, investors should also pay attention to commodity prices in May. In April, crude oil, timber, and copper performed strongly, a sign of economic growth, but it may also have squeezed many companies' profit margins.</p><p>It's important to understand that commodity prices affect many companies. If crude oil prices rise to $70 per barrel, it will significantly increase transportation costs and create difficulties for transportation companies. In addition, like Walmart and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Their supply chains are heavily dependent on cheap energy supplies, and if prices soar, their lives will not be easy. Manufacturing and real estate are also affected by copper and timber prices.</p><p><b>Highlight 5: Progress of Biden's infrastructure bill</b></p><p>Finally, we can also keep an eye on the progress of Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure bill. According to foreign media reports, on April 22, the Biden administration proposed raising capital gains tax, causing the stock market to plummet that day. In May, Congress will continue to discuss the plan, and everyone should pay attention to the impact of this tax increase on market sentiment.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/73955\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/73955","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137689010","content_text":"作者：张富健5月即将开启。与去年5月不同的是，随着疫苗接种工作持续推进，各种娱乐场所陆续开放，人们正在重回正轨，就业报告也表现出色，所以今年5月有很多值得期待的地方。或许就业数据没有各种娱乐活动那么令人兴奋，毕竟人们已经一年没有参加娱乐活动了。不过，下周五（5月7日）公布的美国4月非农就业人口数据可能会在5月的股市和债市里掀起一番波澜。就业数据是否会延续3月的强势表现？若表现强势，又是否会引发消费者对经济过热的担忧？美联储又将如何回应？这些问题都可能会对未来几天或数周的交易产生影响。除了就业数据以及美联储官员的讲话，5月还有很多值得关注的地方，包括美国各公司一季度财报、各国的疫情状况、拜登基建计划的进展以及任何有关企业并购的消息。不过，就业报告和美联储动态仍是两个最大的看点。看点一：4月非农将会十分靓丽？去年5月，美国人基本都在跟疫情作斗争，当时公布的就业数据可谓十分难看。就业报告显示，去年4月美国失业人口超过2000万人，失业率飙升至14.7%。到了今年5月，市场预期美国新增就业岗位91.6万个，失业率降至6%。当然，失业率距离疫情前水平还有一段距离，美国还是有数百万人没有工作。此前的数据也给了我们一些参考。前两周的美国初请失业金人数均创下疫情以来的新低，均少于60万人，但还是很高。但是总的来说，最新就业报告应该会暗示状况好转，大家可以期待一下。现在的问题是，如果就业数据表现靓丽，这是否会引发人们对通胀的担忧？Briefing研究公司表示，其实，今年早些时候，市场上就已经出现了对通胀的担忧。只不过美联储对于通胀的表态暂时缓解了市场担忧。但是近期，可口可乐和金佰利等大公司纷纷宣布涨价，这些公司表示，如果成本升高影响到了它们的利润的话，它们将不得不抬高价格。若真如此，这难免会再次引发了人们的恐慌情绪。此前由于通胀担忧升温，今年第一季度美国10年期国债收益率就从0.9%左右涨到了1.77%，创下了13个月以来的新高。虽然4月债市波动率有所下降，但如果数据转好，不排除5月波动率会重新大涨。要知道，美债收益率上升往往伴随着通胀担忧，这对成长型股票的伤害很大。看点二：美联储会透露转鹰信号吗？现在讨论加息还为时尚早？市场并不这么认为。4月底，芝商所（CME）FedWatch预测工具显示，美联储在2021年末前加息的概率为10%。近期加息押注却突然大降，巴伦周刊的研究表明，美联储今年加息的可能性几乎为零。许多分析师也表示，美联储最早要到2022年末才会加息。而美联储自己也预计，到2023年之前都不会加息。5月份要留意FedWatch的预测，情况可能会有所变化。毕竟接近于零的利率已经维持了一年了，投资者正在等待加息的信号。除了加息以外，投资者还要关注美联储会不会撤回1200亿美元的月度购债计划。不过，市场普遍预计美联储近期转鹰的可能性极低，因为美联储目前专注于降低失业率以及将通胀率抬高到2%以上。看点三：各公司财报是否持续亮眼？4月中美国迎来了财报季，大多数的科技、电信和医疗公司财务状况表现强劲。当然，有的公司表现也不尽人意，出乎华尔街的预期，例如阿联酋航空公司；奈飞的财报也令人大失所望；家具用品企业（Bed, Bath & Beyond）的财报也没有给人留下深刻印象。5月，还有包括沃尔玛（Walmart）、辉瑞（Pfizer）、来福车（Lyft）、德国电信（T-Mobile）、优步（Uber）、莫德纳（Moderna）以及迪尔（Deere）在内的大公司将会公布财报，投资者可以继续关注。随着财报陆续公布，成长型股和价值型股之间的拉锯战可能会持续。今年迄今，标普500指数表现（蜡烛图）跑赢了纳斯达克100指数（紫线）。3月，价值型股的表现较优，而4月成长型股和科技股则更为出色。至于5月，哪一类型的股票的表现更好，我们拭目以待。看点四：警惕大宗商品价格的波动除了上述动态以外，5月投资者还需关注大宗商品价格。4月，原油、木材和铜的表现强劲，这是经济增长的表现，但也可能压缩了许多公司的利润空间。要知道，大宗商品的价格影响着很多公司。如果原油价格升至70美元/桶，那么将极大增加运输成本，给交通运输公司带来困难。另外，像沃尔玛和亚马逊的供应链严重依赖于廉价能源供应，如果价格飙升，他们的日子都不会好过。而制造业和房地产也受到铜价和木材价格的影响。看点五：拜登基建法案的进展最后，我们还可以关注拜登的2万亿美元基建法案的进展。据外媒报道，4月22日，拜登政府提议将提高资本利得税，股市当日闻讯一度急跌。5月，国会将继续就该计划进行商讨，大家可关注这个加税计划对市场情绪的影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377254065,"gmtCreate":1619532216457,"gmtModify":1704725539237,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568196683280287","idStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"？？？？","listText":"？？？？","text":"？？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377254065","repostId":"2130475313","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2130475313","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619504570,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2130475313?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-27 14:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Biden's tax increase plan has been criticized as meaningless for three main reasons.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2130475313","media":"新浪财经","summary":"在拜登即将揭晓大规模增税计划之际，经济学家兼基金经理丹尼尔·拉考（Daniel Lacalle）却表示，拜登宣布对企业和富人大规模增税根本没有意义。\n他认为，增税将对经济增长、投资和就业创造产生影响，","content":"<p>Just as Biden was about to unveil his plan for a massive tax increase, economist and fund manager Daniel Lacalle said that Biden's announcement of a massive tax increase on businesses and the wealthy was meaningless.</p><p>He believes that tax increases will have an impact on economic growth, investment, and job creation, but they will not solve the structural deficit problem, and the impact on debt and deficits will be almost negligible.</p><p>Such a large-scale tax rate increase makes no sense, either from a revenue perspective or from a growth target perspective. If economic growth can solve the rising deficit problem, the Biden administration should use all tools to support economic growth.</p><p>Lacalle explains why tax increases are meaningless in three ways:</p><p>First, the impact on actual income is negligible.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. federal capital gains tax revenue was $158.4 billion. Princeton University estimates that, under the optimistic scenario of not being negatively impacted by tax increases, every 5 percentage point increase in the current tax system would provide an additional $18 billion to $30 billion in tax revenue.</p><p>Based on optimistic expectations for corporate and personal income tax revenue growth, the increase in corporate income tax rates will increase tax revenue by $691 billion, while the so-called \"elimination of tax loopholes,\" the end of fossil fuel tax breaks, and anti-tax inversion measures will increase revenue by $271 billion.</p><p>Of course, the above is just an optimistic estimate, assuming that tax increases will not have any negative impact on the economy and GDP growth will not be affected in any way, but the actual situation cannot be so ideal.</p><p>Secondly, the negative impact of the tax increase will exceed the Biden administration's expectations.</p><p>These tax increases will not only affect the \"rich\". Such a high capital gains tax stifles innovation and reduces the flow of money into private equity, which is crucial for driving startups and new high-productivity businesses.</p><p>This is why Europe has reduced or even eliminated capital gains tax. Belgium, Luxembourg, and Switzerland have no capital gains tax. Among the countries that levy capital gains tax, Greece and Hungary have the lowest tax rates, at 15%. The average level in European countries is 19.3%.</p><p>The same applies to corporate tax rates. Under Biden's plan, the United States would have the highest corporate tax rate in the OECD (28%). Many people believe that the effective tax rate for businesses is lower, while in other countries, businesses also need to pay value-added tax.</p><p>Data from the European Commission shows that the effective average tax rate for US companies is 36.5%, while the average tax rate for EU companies is 21.1%.</p><p>When comparing real interest rates, many American analysts play tricks, either by including loss-making companies in the calculation or by averaging the tax rates of tech giants with those of other industries.</p><p>It is obvious that tax increases will increase the risk of capital flowing out of the United States to other countries where taxes are more competitive. These tax increases may have little impact on multinational corporations, but they have had a particularly significant negative impact on medium-sized enterprises. This is why these measures are regressive.</p><p>Even Yellen knows that such tax increases are harmful, which is why she wants to impose them globally. If she doesn't see the negative impact, she will let other countries manage their taxes as they wish.</p><p>Finally, the problem of mandatory spending (i.e., the deficit problem) remains unresolved.</p><p>Mandatory spending in the United States has surged from $1.8 trillion in 2008 to $2.9 trillion in 2020, and is expected to increase by another $1 trillion over the next 10 years. The main reason for the U.S. deficit is the increase in mandatory spending because revenues cannot match the spending growth that the government cannot control.</p><p>When spending grows faster than economic output and income, it is impossible to reduce the deficit by raising taxes, even during periods of economic expansion.</p><p>In any economic cycle, the fiscal revenue generated by tax increases will be insufficient to cover the more than $200 billion in annual spending growth and the more than $1 trillion deficit.</p><p>So why did Biden do this?</p><p>Lacalle believes that Biden is trying to please his party and voters, and is not worried about any negative impact on the economy; they simply want to prevent the rich from getting richer.</p><p>He stated that Biden's tax increase plan makes no sense from a growth, revenue, or deficit perspective. Moreover, it makes no sense from the perspective of either the Republican or Democratic interests. Because it simply doesn't make sense and doesn't solve America's most pressing problem: ever-expanding mandatory spending.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden's tax increase plan has been criticized as meaningless for three main reasons.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden's tax increase plan has been criticized as meaningless for three main reasons.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-27 14:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Just as Biden was about to unveil his plan for a massive tax increase, economist and fund manager Daniel Lacalle said that Biden's announcement of a massive tax increase on businesses and the wealthy was meaningless.</p><p>He believes that tax increases will have an impact on economic growth, investment, and job creation, but they will not solve the structural deficit problem, and the impact on debt and deficits will be almost negligible.</p><p>Such a large-scale tax rate increase makes no sense, either from a revenue perspective or from a growth target perspective. If economic growth can solve the rising deficit problem, the Biden administration should use all tools to support economic growth.</p><p>Lacalle explains why tax increases are meaningless in three ways:</p><p>First, the impact on actual income is negligible.</p><p>In 2018, U.S. federal capital gains tax revenue was $158.4 billion. Princeton University estimates that, under the optimistic scenario of not being negatively impacted by tax increases, every 5 percentage point increase in the current tax system would provide an additional $18 billion to $30 billion in tax revenue.</p><p>Based on optimistic expectations for corporate and personal income tax revenue growth, the increase in corporate income tax rates will increase tax revenue by $691 billion, while the so-called \"elimination of tax loopholes,\" the end of fossil fuel tax breaks, and anti-tax inversion measures will increase revenue by $271 billion.</p><p>Of course, the above is just an optimistic estimate, assuming that tax increases will not have any negative impact on the economy and GDP growth will not be affected in any way, but the actual situation cannot be so ideal.</p><p>Secondly, the negative impact of the tax increase will exceed the Biden administration's expectations.</p><p>These tax increases will not only affect the \"rich\". Such a high capital gains tax stifles innovation and reduces the flow of money into private equity, which is crucial for driving startups and new high-productivity businesses.</p><p>This is why Europe has reduced or even eliminated capital gains tax. Belgium, Luxembourg, and Switzerland have no capital gains tax. Among the countries that levy capital gains tax, Greece and Hungary have the lowest tax rates, at 15%. The average level in European countries is 19.3%.</p><p>The same applies to corporate tax rates. Under Biden's plan, the United States would have the highest corporate tax rate in the OECD (28%). Many people believe that the effective tax rate for businesses is lower, while in other countries, businesses also need to pay value-added tax.</p><p>Data from the European Commission shows that the effective average tax rate for US companies is 36.5%, while the average tax rate for EU companies is 21.1%.</p><p>When comparing real interest rates, many American analysts play tricks, either by including loss-making companies in the calculation or by averaging the tax rates of tech giants with those of other industries.</p><p>It is obvious that tax increases will increase the risk of capital flowing out of the United States to other countries where taxes are more competitive. These tax increases may have little impact on multinational corporations, but they have had a particularly significant negative impact on medium-sized enterprises. This is why these measures are regressive.</p><p>Even Yellen knows that such tax increases are harmful, which is why she wants to impose them globally. If she doesn't see the negative impact, she will let other countries manage their taxes as they wish.</p><p>Finally, the problem of mandatory spending (i.e., the deficit problem) remains unresolved.</p><p>Mandatory spending in the United States has surged from $1.8 trillion in 2008 to $2.9 trillion in 2020, and is expected to increase by another $1 trillion over the next 10 years. The main reason for the U.S. deficit is the increase in mandatory spending because revenues cannot match the spending growth that the government cannot control.</p><p>When spending grows faster than economic output and income, it is impossible to reduce the deficit by raising taxes, even during periods of economic expansion.</p><p>In any economic cycle, the fiscal revenue generated by tax increases will be insufficient to cover the more than $200 billion in annual spending growth and the more than $1 trillion deficit.</p><p>So why did Biden do this?</p><p>Lacalle believes that Biden is trying to please his party and voters, and is not worried about any negative impact on the economy; they simply want to prevent the rich from getting richer.</p><p>He stated that Biden's tax increase plan makes no sense from a growth, revenue, or deficit perspective. Moreover, it makes no sense from the perspective of either the Republican or Democratic interests. Because it simply doesn't make sense and doesn't solve America's most pressing problem: ever-expanding mandatory spending.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2021-04-27/doc-ikmxzfmk9226419.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1f2064b1def89283b4efa9b8ac4586","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2021-04-27/doc-ikmxzfmk9226419.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2130475313","content_text":"在拜登即将揭晓大规模增税计划之际，经济学家兼基金经理丹尼尔·拉考（Daniel Lacalle）却表示，拜登宣布对企业和富人大规模增税根本没有意义。\n他认为，增税将对经济增长、投资和就业创造产生影响，但却并不能解决结构性的赤字问题，对债务和赤字的影响几乎可以忽略不计。\n无论是从收入角度还是从增长目标来看，如此大规模的税率上调都是毫无道理的。如果经济增长能解决不断上升的赤字问题，拜登政府就应该使用所有工具来支持经济增长。\nLacalle从三个方面说明了为什么增税毫无意义：\n首先，对实际收入的影响可以忽略不计。\n2018年，美国联邦资本利得税收入为1584亿美元。据普林斯顿大学（Princeton University）估计，在不受增税负面影响的乐观情况下，现行税收制度每提高5个百分点，将额外提供180亿至300亿美元的税收。\n根据对企业和个人所得税收入增长的乐观预期，企业所得税税率提高将增加6910亿美元税收，而所谓的“废除税收漏洞”、终止化石燃料税收减免和反税收倒置措施将增加2710亿美元收入。\n当然，以上只是乐观估计，前提是增税不会对经济产生任何负面影响，GDP增长也不会受到任何影响，但实际情况不可能如此理想化。\n其次，增税的负面影响将超过拜登政府的预期。\n这些增税并不只会影响“富人”。如此高的资本利得税会扼杀创新，减少流入私人股本的资金，而私人股本对于推动初创企业和新的高生产率企业至关重要。\n这就是欧洲降低甚至取消资本利得税的原因。比利时，卢森堡，瑞士都没有资本利得税。在征收资本利得税的国家中，希腊和匈牙利的税率最低，为15%。欧洲国家的平均水平是19.3%。\n企业税率也是如此。根据拜登的计划，美国将拥有经合组织中最高的企业税率（28%）。许多人认为，企业的实际税率更低，而在其他国家，企业还需要缴纳增值税。\n欧盟委员会的数据显示，美国公司的实际平均税率为36.5%，而欧盟公司的平均税率为21.1%。\n在比较实际利率时，很多美国的分析都在耍些小把戏，要么把亏损的公司加进去一起计算，要么把科技巨头的税率与其他行业的进行平均。\n增税将增加资本从美国外流到其他税收更有竞争力的国家的风险，这是显而易见的。这些增税措施可能对跨国公司影响不大，但却对中型企业产生了特别大的负面影响。这就是为什么这些措施是倒退的。\n就连耶伦也知道这种增税是有害的，这就是她想要全球征税的原因。如果她没有看到负面影响，她会让其他国家按照他们的意愿管理他们的税收。\n最后，强制性支出的问题（也就是赤字问题）依然没有得到解决。\n美国的强制支出已从2008年的1.8万亿美元激增至2020年的2.9万亿美元，预计未来10年还会再增加1万亿美元。美国赤字的主要原因是强制性支出的增加，因为收入无法与政府控制不了的支出增长相匹配。\n当支出方面的增长速度超过经济产出和收入时，即使是在经济扩张时期，也不可能通过增税来削减赤字。\n不管在任何经济周期中，增税带来的财政收入，都难以覆盖每年逾2000亿美元的支出增长，以及超过一万亿美元的赤字。\n那么拜登为什么要这么做呢？\nLacalle认为，拜登是为了取悦他的政党和选民，并不担心这会对经济产生什么负面影响，他们只是想阻止富人变得更富。\n他表示，从增长、收入或赤字的角度来看，拜登的增税计划没有意义。而且无论从共和党还是民主党的利益角度来看，也都没有意义。因为这根本不合情理，也没有解决美国最主要的问题：不断膨胀的强制性支出。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375375566,"gmtCreate":1619312734555,"gmtModify":1704722253515,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568196683280287","idStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375375566","repostId":"1104243150","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104243150","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"预判经济形势，解读公共政策，提供及时信息，推送专业报告。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"泽平宏观","id":"49","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990"},"pubTimestamp":1619305333,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104243150?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-25 07:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Interview with Ren Zeping: What to do when inflation comes? Housing prices, the stock market, and the future of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104243150","media":"泽平宏观","summary":"4月16日上午10点，国家统计局公布了2021年一季度宏观经济报告，其中有非常多数据，最引人关注的，就是今年一季度我们的GDP同比增长了18.3%。这个亮眼的数据，是建立在去年疫情暴发，中国经济遭遇毁","content":"<p>At 10:00 AM on April 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics released its Q1 2021 macroeconomic report, which contained a wealth of data, the most noteworthy of which was...<b>In the first quarter of this year, our GDP grew by 18.3% year-on-year.</b></p><p>This impressive data is based on a strong rebound against the backdrop of the outbreak of the epidemic last year, which dealt a devastating blow to the Chinese economy.</p><p>What does this 18.3% actually mean?</p><p>Just two hours after the report was released, Professor Wu Xiaobo connected with Dr. Ren Zeping and had a discussion on this data for more than an hour in the live broadcast room of Zeping's Macro Video Account and Wu Xiaobo's Channel Video Account.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6ad030eca06021626bc8fbbf0c7ebb2\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Xiao Ba now presents the highlights of their conversation.</p><p><b>What does 18.3% mean?</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What does GDP growth of 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021 mean?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>18.3% seems very high. Actually, if we calculate, the growth rate in the first quarter of last year was -6.8% due to the pandemic, so there is a base reason for this.<b>Excluding this reason, our compound annual growth rate has been 5% for two consecutive years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bacc92fa07c7545a37642de2372ef\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But one of the signals it sends is,<b>Since the recovery in the second quarter of last year, China's economy has returned to a normal growth level by the fourth quarter of last year.</b></p><p>The second point is that China has truly taken the lead globally in this fight against the epidemic and economic recovery.</p><p>Thirdly, there is the impact of this economic recovery on policies and the stock market.</p><p>Let's start by discussing the impact on policy.</p><p>Since the economic recovery in the second quarter of last year, especially<b>In the fourth quarter of last year, our economic growth rate returned to over 6%. At this time, our monetary policy was adjusted, from the original loosening to the so-called normalization of monetary policy.</b></p><p>That's why I said at the end of last year<b>Inflation expectations</b>At the beginning of this year,<b>Liquidity inflection point.</b></p><p><b>More importantly, the market style of A-shares has shifted.</b></p><p><b>After the liquidity turning point emerged, the entire market shifted from overvalued sectors to cyclical commodities benefiting from rising prices, undervalued sectors, and sectors benefiting from the global trade recovery. This is consistent with the overall logic we mentioned earlier.</b></p><p>But there is another issue worth noting here.</p><p><b>China and the United States are not on the same track now. In terms of recovery, the Chinese economy has been three quarters ahead of the US economy, which has only really begun to recover since the beginning of this year. We are in the process of normalizing monetary policy, while the United States, because it has just begun to recover, still has a very strong demand for loose monetary policy.</b></p><p><b>This is why our stock market style has shifted and even undergone a round of adjustment, but US stocks are still hitting new highs. The reason behind this is that the economic recovery cycles are different, and the degree of looseness and tightness of monetary policies varies.</b></p><p>Overall, the economic recovery has achieved very impressive results. Objectively speaking, I think this data is a tribute to the contributions made by our companies and medical professionals on various fronts of the fight against the epidemic over the past year.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: You were the first to propose the two macroeconomic judgments of inflation expectations and liquidity turning points, which caused a lot of controversy in academia when you proposed them. I'd like to know what data model you based your assessment of last year's inflation expectations on?</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping: This framework is based on the so-called economic cycle.</b></p><p><b>The economic cycle is generally divided into four stages: recession, recovery, overheating, and stagflation.</b>Then there is recession, recovery, overheating, and stagflation.</p><p>The recession actually began in the second half of 2019 until the outbreak of the pandemic, and there was a very obvious recession. Then, from the second to the fourth quarter, it recovered.</p><p>but<b>After the fourth quarter of last year, the economy returned to normal levels. If things continue to evolve, we will definitely enter a phase of inflation and overheating, roughly from the end of last year to the first half of this year.</b>Therefore, we made this judgment.</p><p><b>2. CPI can no longer reflect<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>life</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I challenge you.<b>You mentioned inflation expectations, but we can see from the macroeconomic data in the first quarter that the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% year-on-year in March, fell 0.2% in February, and fell 0.5% month-on-month.</b></p><p>However, we have seen that commodity prices, such as some white goods, such as refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines, have increased by about 10% in the past quarter. Movie tickets were 40 yuan each last year, but now some cinemas have raised them to 80 or even 100 yuan. Mattress prices have increased by 5% to 6% compared to last year.</p><p><b>I'm curious why<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>We have sensed the rise in commodity prices, but data from the National Bureau of Statistics tells us that the national consumer price index rose by only 0.4% year-on-year. Why is there such a large difference?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1a5d53526a6af736aac55433116b98\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>That's a good question. Why is the CPI only a fraction of a point?</p><p>Nowadays, everyone generally feels that in reality, there can't be only this few.<b>In fact, what we feel is that apart from pork prices not rising, everything else is rising.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter of this year, pork production increased by 31.9%, with a large-scale increase in pork production, but pork prices fell by 12.5%.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Let me give you a brief explanation, because<b>It just so happens that this round of inflation and the pig cycle are misaligned.</b></p><p><b>In 2019, I put forward a sentence: \"After removing the pigs, there will be deflation.\" Because the economy was bad at the time, only pork prices were rising, and everything else was fine.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>At that time, the CPI was around three to four percent. Then you raised the point that after excluding pigs, the CPI was actually around a fraction of a percent, or even negative growth.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>And yes,<b>Because pork prices were falling in 2020, this year is a typical example of \"inflation after removing pigs.\" You will find that except for pork prices, everything else is rising.</b></p><p>Commodity prices are rising, housing prices are rising, crude oil prices are rising, and future home renovation costs will also rise because steel and copper prices have been rising recently.</p><p><b>Next, let's look at the PPI, which is our Industrial Product Price Index. The industrial product price index rose to 4.4% in March, with 3% being the warning line; it has already risen to 4.4%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a2d5662aa91388651e325cb518c94f\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>The 4.4% increase is significant, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in March, an increase of 2.7 percentage points compared to February. What do you estimate will happen to industrial product prices in the second quarter?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I estimate that prices will continue to rise in the second and third quarters.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>So it's not good news.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>It's not good news. Why did the price continue to rise in the second quarter?<b>One is the resonance of economic recovery, globally, in Europe and America, in China, including Japan. Furthermore, the United States has irresponsibly allowed the dollar to flood with liquidity. It has launched a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan to compete with China in the field of new infrastructure, but where will the money come from? Most of it will definitely come from excessive money supply.</b></p><p>Returning to the previous topic,<b>In recent years, pork has had a significant impact on the CPI, but for example, the housing price index, which is quite representative, has not been included.</b></p><p><b>CPI, also known as the Consumer Price Index, is a basket of consumer expenditures. In terms of household expenditure, let's be frank, how much pork can we eat? However, other expenses such as rent are accounting for an increasing proportion.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, the CPI indicator is increasingly unable to reflect the inflation that ordinary people actually experience. Therefore, we should respect the objective situation, slightly reduce the weight of pigs, and then give more attention to housing-related items, including those with a larger weight in the latest consumer basket of ordinary people. In this way, we can see the economic situation and monetary policy regulation more accurately.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>All macroeconomic data is based on models. If something goes wrong with this model, all your exported data will eventually have problems.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Xiaobo is right. For example, my CPI only rose by 0.4% this year. If, according to the standards, 0.4% is considered deflation in China and not inflation, then what should I do? We will definitely continue to stimulate the economy this year by issuing monetary policy, but once monetary policy stimulus occurs, it will be troublesome, and if we stimulate it further, it will go to great</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>You proposed the liquidity inflection point at the beginning of this year, and there was a lot of controversy when you proposed it. How was this inflection point determined?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: Since we saw last year that so-called inflation expectations were about to rise, from the perspective of monetary policy, because it needs to be adjusted counter-cyclically, as the economy recovers and inflation rises, monetary policy cannot be overly loose, otherwise it will trigger more serious inflation or even overheating of the economy.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, as a responsible monetary authority, it has a responsibility to normalize monetary policy at the beginning of this year. In fact, we finally recorded that the growth rate of M2 and social financing declined for two consecutive months.</b></p><p><b>3. RMB stability is the country's responsibility to its people.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I have a question: with the US government spending so much money now, what will happen to China's RMB policy and monetary policy?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>One is the appreciation of the RMB. Because we did not overissue currency, we maintained the stability of the currency value. The side that issues too much currency will definitely depreciate, while the side that issues too little will appreciate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89a0c6a87e487b270cbe57ab5f5e22e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Secondly, there will be a trend of capital inflows. Since last year, a lot of funds have flowed into our country.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: Last year, China's foreign investment intake surpassed that of the United States for the first time, making it the world's largest foreign investment recipient.</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>The reason is simple: holding US dollars is a depreciating asset, while holding RMB is an appreciating asset. Therefore, from an asset allocation perspective, the asset that makes many investors willing to hold appreciating assets is RMB.</p><p>In addition, China controlled the epidemic well last year, so when investment and production could not be resumed globally, only China had this condition.</p><p>Another point that I think is very important is that the country, the government, and the central bank must be responsible to the people.</p><p>According to the monetary authorities, the normalization of our monetary policy aims to maintain currency stability.<b>Currency stability is a term used internationally, but internally, it means that assets in the pockets of ordinary people, cash flow assets, cannot be depreciated, right? It can not be diluted too much.</b></p><p><b>The United States' unlimited excessive money issuance over the past year has not only diluted the foreign exchange reserves of countries like China, Japan, the Middle East, and the world, but has also sacrificed the cash assets of its own people, which is very irresponsible. This is why populism, anti-globalization, and the Occupy Wall Street movement are prevalent in the United States. I believe that on the surface it is excessive money supply, but in reality it is the widening gap between social strata and wealth, as well as the turmoil in social ideology caused by excessive money supply.</b></p><p><b>4. Housing prices will become increasingly divergent.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the recently released first-quarter data report, there are three pieces of data regarding the real estate market, which I will read aloud to you first.</p><p>Real estate development investment increased by 25.6% year-on-year, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased by 63.8% year-on-year, and the sales revenue of commercial housing increased by 88.5% year-on-year, which is the fastest growth in sales revenue, indicating that housing prices are still rising.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf5f2735dc17e39fb04fbaa2af9a1b9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I've also recently observed a phenomenon: the prices of so-called luxury homes or serviced apartments in large cities have been rising very rapidly. According to data, in 2020, a total of 30,000 houses priced above 10 million yuan per square meter were sold in China, which is about 400 to 500 billion yuan. Of these 30,000 houses, 20,000 were in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and 10,000 were in Shanghai.</p><p>This raises a question: money is constantly being issued in excess, and real estate investment is also increasing. What is your view on housing prices?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I think that's how it is. For the real estate market and housing prices, in the future, everyone will remember one word: \"differentiation\".</b></p><p>As you know, I proposed an analytical framework in the real estate field called:<b>\"Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term.\"</b></p><p>Looking at China's current and future real estate market within this framework, I don't think these phenomena are unusual.</p><p><b>In fact, urbanization can be divided into two stages. The first is the shift of population from rural areas to cities.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002195\">2345</a>The population of sixth-tier cities has generally increased, so housing prices have also generally increased. However, when the urbanization rate reaches around 60% or above, then it is basically in a differentiated pattern.</b></p><p><b>Population is flowing from low-level cities, including rural areas and third- and fourth-tier cities, to metropolitan areas and urban clusters. Therefore, not only in the past two years, but in the next 10 or 20 years, we will see this differentiation, which has happened in the United States and Japan.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I remember conducting a survey in 2013 and 2014. In Jiangsu Province, such as Wuxi, Suzhou, and Changzhou, housing prices were rising. There was a prefecture-level city nearby called Zhenjiang, which had experienced a net outflow of population for 11 consecutive years, so its housing prices were stagnant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce09dd3fda9d7e6b7c5aadf0be1aacd\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, this differentiation actually occurred six or seven years ago. As Professor Zeping just mentioned, this differentiation will become more and more serious in the future. Young people will gather in megacities or large urban clusters, and then big cities will produce a huge siphoning phenomenon.</p><p>In some cities, if their industrial economy is unhealthy, they lack a good social security system, a good entrepreneurial atmosphere, or housing prices are still relatively high, it will force young people to leave.</p><p><b>5. Exports exceeding expectations are a victory for China's manufacturing industry.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Relatively speaking, the RMB is in a state of passive appreciation, which is actually unfavorable for exports. However, we see the data from the first quarter:</p><p>In the first quarter, the total value of imports and exports of goods increased by 29.2% year-on-year, exports increased by 38.7% year-on-year, and imports increased by 19.3%. In other words, our exports are twice as much as our imports, resulting in a trade surplus of 759.3 billion yuan. Overall, exports in the first quarter exceeded expectations. What is your opinion on this phenomenon?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Because in the past year, the appreciation of the RMB did have a negative impact on our exports, but we still had many positive effects that offset its negative effects.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ First,</b>For the past year, most of the world's major manufacturing countries have been unable to resume normal production, such as Germany and the United States. Only China has the ability to resume normal production, so it is actually China that is ensuring global supply.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ Second,</b>The strong competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. Over the years, through technological iterations, including replacing labor with machines and various cost reductions, we have maintained the strong competitiveness of our manufacturing industry.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ Third,</b>I think it's related to an issue that Brother Xiaobo has long advocated: the rise of new domestic products.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I would like to add two more points. The first point is that since the pandemic last year, China has become the world's largest manufacturing country, so our supply chain has not been interrupted. Because we were the first to control the pandemic, China's entire production system is still recovering very well.</p><p>Last April, I started running my first car factory in China. Wuhan had not yet opened on April 8th, but the car factory in Wuhan had already resumed operations in March. By June, the production capacity of all vehicle manufacturers in China had recovered to 80% of the same period last year.<b>Therefore, I believe that a complete supply chain is a significant benefit that China has provided in this round of global trade and global manufacturing.</b></p><p>The second point is the issue of new domestic products that you just mentioned.</p><p>Last year I conducted research and discovered that Chinese exports were all manufactured by OEMs, using other brands. Nowadays, a large number of Chinese exported goods have their own brands.</p><p>Today, there are approximately tens of thousands of independent brands of goods sold globally throughout China. These brands have achieved a new brand breakthrough by offering affordable prices and high-quality products, which is one of the fundamental reasons why Chinese goods have exceeded expectations in exports:<b>Our competitiveness, our channel capabilities, and our brand building capabilities have all withstood the test of this round of the COVID-19 pandemic.</b></p><p><b>6. Grasp the shift in stock market style</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What are your thoughts on the stock market decline in the first quarter? What are your assessments of the market outlook?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I will mainly talk about the style of the market.</p><p><b>For this year, if we continue to focus on the major trends of inflation expectations and liquidity turning points, then everyone should pay attention to the fact that the market style will still undergo significant changes this year.</b></p><p><b>Those sectors that were previously overvalued may still be under pressure against the backdrop of rising interest rates, as rising interest rates destroy valuations. However, because inflation expectations have risen, I believe it should be positive for cyclical commodities, those benefiting from price increases, and those benefiting from the recovery of global trade.</b></p><p><b>As for carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, those are all synergistic conditions and catalysts that do not change the general direction.</b></p><p><b>This is my view on this year's stock market: structural opportunities coexist with structural risks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4561949a58567284017c6d57f824eb3\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>So what should ordinary stock investors and fund investors do?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Grasp this shift in market style.<b>When choosing a fund manager, you should also select those who can make decisions quickly and make style changes, or who are good at managing the beneficiary sectors I just mentioned.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Here I want to remind everyone that Chinese stock market investors have a problem called ADHD: they buy stocks and look at them every day, panicking whether they rise or fall. Okay, now that I've bought funds, fund investors also have ADHD. Even though they've entrusted their professional skills to those fund managers, they still check every day to see if the funds have gone up or down.</p><p>We have data showing that when Americans buy a fund, its portfolio adjustment cycle is 16 months, while in China it is two months, a difference of about 8 times.</p><p>As the capital market and industries become more rational, our investment philosophy should also become more rational. ADHD is a common problem we made when we were kids in elementary school. If you still have ADHD when you're in college, isn't that a very troublesome thing?</p><p><b>7. What are your thoughts on 2021?</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What do you think about the future? What advice do you have for our business owners and general new middle-class families?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I have a few judgments.</b></p><p><b>Firstly, in the short term, the first quarter may mark the peak of the Chinese economy or enter a peak range, while the growth rate in the second and third quarters may gradually slow down.</b></p><p>Because it's impossible for everything to be 18.3%, the rest...<b>China's economy is gradually returning to normal.</b>The base effect of the pandemic will gradually fade.<b>。</b>However, there is no need to worry too much about this slowdown. For example, it is normal for it to drop from around 18% to 10%, 8%, or 6% in the future.</p><p><b>China's potential future economic growth rate is around 5% to 6%.</b></p><p>The second judgment is that China's monetary authorities are quite responsible, and relatively speaking, they have excessively issued money. However, thankfully, RMB assets are relatively safe to maintain their value.</p><p>Thirdly, from a longer-term perspective, including the response to the pandemic this time and the previous response to the Sino-US trade friction, I think China has handled it quite well.</p><p>Because it is mainly addressed through reform. In particular, China's current growth trend, or what people call its national destiny, is indeed still on an upward trend.</p><p>Therefore, for us entrepreneurs and ordinary people, I think we should have confidence in China's economic growth and development.</p><p>Because no one can choose their front, and our camp is already very good, we will be fortunate to witness China surpassing the United States to become the world's largest economy in the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30837fc9cb7ccb39fd10cbf28f6a5a8\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>This discusses the fate of the nation. In our economic history research, we have data that China was the world's largest economy for a long time during the agrarian civilization period, but by 1828, China's total economic output had been surpassed by Britain.</p><p>It has been almost 200 years since 1828. Today, China's total economic output is 70% of that of the United States. If it maintains this growth rate, China's total economic output should have the opportunity to surpass that of the United States around 2028 or 2030. That is, in exactly 200 years, this country will become the world's largest economy.</p><p><b>Therefore, I believe that each of us is a son of an era, a product of an era. Then, confidence in oneself comes first and foremost from confidence in the growth of the country and the national economy.</b></p><p>If you think the elevator has started to descend and is no longer running, can you outrun it no matter how fast you run? If we are optimistic about the country's economic development in the medium to long term, then the remaining question is what should we do? Are there any constructive and rational ways to run forward even while standing still in an elevator, or to quickly take off my shoes and run faster than others?</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Interview with Ren Zeping: What to do when inflation comes? 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Housing prices, the stock market, and the future of 2021\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/49\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">泽平宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-25 07:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At 10:00 AM on April 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics released its Q1 2021 macroeconomic report, which contained a wealth of data, the most noteworthy of which was...<b>In the first quarter of this year, our GDP grew by 18.3% year-on-year.</b></p><p>This impressive data is based on a strong rebound against the backdrop of the outbreak of the epidemic last year, which dealt a devastating blow to the Chinese economy.</p><p>What does this 18.3% actually mean?</p><p>Just two hours after the report was released, Professor Wu Xiaobo connected with Dr. Ren Zeping and had a discussion on this data for more than an hour in the live broadcast room of Zeping's Macro Video Account and Wu Xiaobo's Channel Video Account.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6ad030eca06021626bc8fbbf0c7ebb2\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Xiao Ba now presents the highlights of their conversation.</p><p><b>What does 18.3% mean?</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What does GDP growth of 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021 mean?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>18.3% seems very high. Actually, if we calculate, the growth rate in the first quarter of last year was -6.8% due to the pandemic, so there is a base reason for this.<b>Excluding this reason, our compound annual growth rate has been 5% for two consecutive years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bacc92fa07c7545a37642de2372ef\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But one of the signals it sends is,<b>Since the recovery in the second quarter of last year, China's economy has returned to a normal growth level by the fourth quarter of last year.</b></p><p>The second point is that China has truly taken the lead globally in this fight against the epidemic and economic recovery.</p><p>Thirdly, there is the impact of this economic recovery on policies and the stock market.</p><p>Let's start by discussing the impact on policy.</p><p>Since the economic recovery in the second quarter of last year, especially<b>In the fourth quarter of last year, our economic growth rate returned to over 6%. At this time, our monetary policy was adjusted, from the original loosening to the so-called normalization of monetary policy.</b></p><p>That's why I said at the end of last year<b>Inflation expectations</b>At the beginning of this year,<b>Liquidity inflection point.</b></p><p><b>More importantly, the market style of A-shares has shifted.</b></p><p><b>After the liquidity turning point emerged, the entire market shifted from overvalued sectors to cyclical commodities benefiting from rising prices, undervalued sectors, and sectors benefiting from the global trade recovery. This is consistent with the overall logic we mentioned earlier.</b></p><p>But there is another issue worth noting here.</p><p><b>China and the United States are not on the same track now. In terms of recovery, the Chinese economy has been three quarters ahead of the US economy, which has only really begun to recover since the beginning of this year. We are in the process of normalizing monetary policy, while the United States, because it has just begun to recover, still has a very strong demand for loose monetary policy.</b></p><p><b>This is why our stock market style has shifted and even undergone a round of adjustment, but US stocks are still hitting new highs. The reason behind this is that the economic recovery cycles are different, and the degree of looseness and tightness of monetary policies varies.</b></p><p>Overall, the economic recovery has achieved very impressive results. Objectively speaking, I think this data is a tribute to the contributions made by our companies and medical professionals on various fronts of the fight against the epidemic over the past year.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: You were the first to propose the two macroeconomic judgments of inflation expectations and liquidity turning points, which caused a lot of controversy in academia when you proposed them. I'd like to know what data model you based your assessment of last year's inflation expectations on?</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping: This framework is based on the so-called economic cycle.</b></p><p><b>The economic cycle is generally divided into four stages: recession, recovery, overheating, and stagflation.</b>Then there is recession, recovery, overheating, and stagflation.</p><p>The recession actually began in the second half of 2019 until the outbreak of the pandemic, and there was a very obvious recession. Then, from the second to the fourth quarter, it recovered.</p><p>but<b>After the fourth quarter of last year, the economy returned to normal levels. If things continue to evolve, we will definitely enter a phase of inflation and overheating, roughly from the end of last year to the first half of this year.</b>Therefore, we made this judgment.</p><p><b>2. CPI can no longer reflect<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>life</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I challenge you.<b>You mentioned inflation expectations, but we can see from the macroeconomic data in the first quarter that the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% year-on-year in March, fell 0.2% in February, and fell 0.5% month-on-month.</b></p><p>However, we have seen that commodity prices, such as some white goods, such as refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines, have increased by about 10% in the past quarter. Movie tickets were 40 yuan each last year, but now some cinemas have raised them to 80 or even 100 yuan. Mattress prices have increased by 5% to 6% compared to last year.</p><p><b>I'm curious why<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">ordinary people</a>We have sensed the rise in commodity prices, but data from the National Bureau of Statistics tells us that the national consumer price index rose by only 0.4% year-on-year. Why is there such a large difference?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1a5d53526a6af736aac55433116b98\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>That's a good question. Why is the CPI only a fraction of a point?</p><p>Nowadays, everyone generally feels that in reality, there can't be only this few.<b>In fact, what we feel is that apart from pork prices not rising, everything else is rising.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the first quarter of this year, pork production increased by 31.9%, with a large-scale increase in pork production, but pork prices fell by 12.5%.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Let me give you a brief explanation, because<b>It just so happens that this round of inflation and the pig cycle are misaligned.</b></p><p><b>In 2019, I put forward a sentence: \"After removing the pigs, there will be deflation.\" Because the economy was bad at the time, only pork prices were rising, and everything else was fine.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>At that time, the CPI was around three to four percent. Then you raised the point that after excluding pigs, the CPI was actually around a fraction of a percent, or even negative growth.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>And yes,<b>Because pork prices were falling in 2020, this year is a typical example of \"inflation after removing pigs.\" You will find that except for pork prices, everything else is rising.</b></p><p>Commodity prices are rising, housing prices are rising, crude oil prices are rising, and future home renovation costs will also rise because steel and copper prices have been rising recently.</p><p><b>Next, let's look at the PPI, which is our Industrial Product Price Index. The industrial product price index rose to 4.4% in March, with 3% being the warning line; it has already risen to 4.4%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a2d5662aa91388651e325cb518c94f\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>The 4.4% increase is significant, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in March, an increase of 2.7 percentage points compared to February. What do you estimate will happen to industrial product prices in the second quarter?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I estimate that prices will continue to rise in the second and third quarters.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>So it's not good news.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>It's not good news. Why did the price continue to rise in the second quarter?<b>One is the resonance of economic recovery, globally, in Europe and America, in China, including Japan. Furthermore, the United States has irresponsibly allowed the dollar to flood with liquidity. It has launched a $3 trillion infrastructure stimulus plan to compete with China in the field of new infrastructure, but where will the money come from? Most of it will definitely come from excessive money supply.</b></p><p>Returning to the previous topic,<b>In recent years, pork has had a significant impact on the CPI, but for example, the housing price index, which is quite representative, has not been included.</b></p><p><b>CPI, also known as the Consumer Price Index, is a basket of consumer expenditures. In terms of household expenditure, let's be frank, how much pork can we eat? However, other expenses such as rent are accounting for an increasing proportion.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, the CPI indicator is increasingly unable to reflect the inflation that ordinary people actually experience. Therefore, we should respect the objective situation, slightly reduce the weight of pigs, and then give more attention to housing-related items, including those with a larger weight in the latest consumer basket of ordinary people. In this way, we can see the economic situation and monetary policy regulation more accurately.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>All macroeconomic data is based on models. If something goes wrong with this model, all your exported data will eventually have problems.</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Xiaobo is right. For example, my CPI only rose by 0.4% this year. If, according to the standards, 0.4% is considered deflation in China and not inflation, then what should I do? We will definitely continue to stimulate the economy this year by issuing monetary policy, but once monetary policy stimulus occurs, it will be troublesome, and if we stimulate it further, it will go to great</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>You proposed the liquidity inflection point at the beginning of this year, and there was a lot of controversy when you proposed it. How was this inflection point determined?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: Since we saw last year that so-called inflation expectations were about to rise, from the perspective of monetary policy, because it needs to be adjusted counter-cyclically, as the economy recovers and inflation rises, monetary policy cannot be overly loose, otherwise it will trigger more serious inflation or even overheating of the economy.</b></p><p><b>Therefore, as a responsible monetary authority, it has a responsibility to normalize monetary policy at the beginning of this year. In fact, we finally recorded that the growth rate of M2 and social financing declined for two consecutive months.</b></p><p><b>3. RMB stability is the country's responsibility to its people.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I have a question: with the US government spending so much money now, what will happen to China's RMB policy and monetary policy?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>One is the appreciation of the RMB. Because we did not overissue currency, we maintained the stability of the currency value. The side that issues too much currency will definitely depreciate, while the side that issues too little will appreciate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89a0c6a87e487b270cbe57ab5f5e22e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Secondly, there will be a trend of capital inflows. Since last year, a lot of funds have flowed into our country.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo: Last year, China's foreign investment intake surpassed that of the United States for the first time, making it the world's largest foreign investment recipient.</b></p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>The reason is simple: holding US dollars is a depreciating asset, while holding RMB is an appreciating asset. Therefore, from an asset allocation perspective, the asset that makes many investors willing to hold appreciating assets is RMB.</p><p>In addition, China controlled the epidemic well last year, so when investment and production could not be resumed globally, only China had this condition.</p><p>Another point that I think is very important is that the country, the government, and the central bank must be responsible to the people.</p><p>According to the monetary authorities, the normalization of our monetary policy aims to maintain currency stability.<b>Currency stability is a term used internationally, but internally, it means that assets in the pockets of ordinary people, cash flow assets, cannot be depreciated, right? It can not be diluted too much.</b></p><p><b>The United States' unlimited excessive money issuance over the past year has not only diluted the foreign exchange reserves of countries like China, Japan, the Middle East, and the world, but has also sacrificed the cash assets of its own people, which is very irresponsible. This is why populism, anti-globalization, and the Occupy Wall Street movement are prevalent in the United States. I believe that on the surface it is excessive money supply, but in reality it is the widening gap between social strata and wealth, as well as the turmoil in social ideology caused by excessive money supply.</b></p><p><b>4. Housing prices will become increasingly divergent.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>In the recently released first-quarter data report, there are three pieces of data regarding the real estate market, which I will read aloud to you first.</p><p>Real estate development investment increased by 25.6% year-on-year, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide increased by 63.8% year-on-year, and the sales revenue of commercial housing increased by 88.5% year-on-year, which is the fastest growth in sales revenue, indicating that housing prices are still rising.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf5f2735dc17e39fb04fbaa2af9a1b9\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>I've also recently observed a phenomenon: the prices of so-called luxury homes or serviced apartments in large cities have been rising very rapidly. According to data, in 2020, a total of 30,000 houses priced above 10 million yuan per square meter were sold in China, which is about 400 to 500 billion yuan. Of these 30,000 houses, 20,000 were in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and 10,000 were in Shanghai.</p><p>This raises a question: money is constantly being issued in excess, and real estate investment is also increasing. What is your view on housing prices?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I think that's how it is. For the real estate market and housing prices, in the future, everyone will remember one word: \"differentiation\".</b></p><p>As you know, I proposed an analytical framework in the real estate field called:<b>\"Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term.\"</b></p><p>Looking at China's current and future real estate market within this framework, I don't think these phenomena are unusual.</p><p><b>In fact, urbanization can be divided into two stages. The first is the shift of population from rural areas to cities.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002195\">2345</a>The population of sixth-tier cities has generally increased, so housing prices have also generally increased. However, when the urbanization rate reaches around 60% or above, then it is basically in a differentiated pattern.</b></p><p><b>Population is flowing from low-level cities, including rural areas and third- and fourth-tier cities, to metropolitan areas and urban clusters. Therefore, not only in the past two years, but in the next 10 or 20 years, we will see this differentiation, which has happened in the United States and Japan.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I remember conducting a survey in 2013 and 2014. In Jiangsu Province, such as Wuxi, Suzhou, and Changzhou, housing prices were rising. There was a prefecture-level city nearby called Zhenjiang, which had experienced a net outflow of population for 11 consecutive years, so its housing prices were stagnant.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce09dd3fda9d7e6b7c5aadf0be1aacd\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, this differentiation actually occurred six or seven years ago. As Professor Zeping just mentioned, this differentiation will become more and more serious in the future. Young people will gather in megacities or large urban clusters, and then big cities will produce a huge siphoning phenomenon.</p><p>In some cities, if their industrial economy is unhealthy, they lack a good social security system, a good entrepreneurial atmosphere, or housing prices are still relatively high, it will force young people to leave.</p><p><b>5. Exports exceeding expectations are a victory for China's manufacturing industry.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Relatively speaking, the RMB is in a state of passive appreciation, which is actually unfavorable for exports. However, we see the data from the first quarter:</p><p>In the first quarter, the total value of imports and exports of goods increased by 29.2% year-on-year, exports increased by 38.7% year-on-year, and imports increased by 19.3%. In other words, our exports are twice as much as our imports, resulting in a trade surplus of 759.3 billion yuan. Overall, exports in the first quarter exceeded expectations. What is your opinion on this phenomenon?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Because in the past year, the appreciation of the RMB did have a negative impact on our exports, but we still had many positive effects that offset its negative effects.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ First,</b>For the past year, most of the world's major manufacturing countries have been unable to resume normal production, such as Germany and the United States. Only China has the ability to resume normal production, so it is actually China that is ensuring global supply.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ Second,</b>The strong competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. Over the years, through technological iterations, including replacing labor with machines and various cost reductions, we have maintained the strong competitiveness of our manufacturing industry.</p><p><b>▶ ▷ Third,</b>I think it's related to an issue that Brother Xiaobo has long advocated: the rise of new domestic products.</p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>I would like to add two more points. The first point is that since the pandemic last year, China has become the world's largest manufacturing country, so our supply chain has not been interrupted. Because we were the first to control the pandemic, China's entire production system is still recovering very well.</p><p>Last April, I started running my first car factory in China. Wuhan had not yet opened on April 8th, but the car factory in Wuhan had already resumed operations in March. By June, the production capacity of all vehicle manufacturers in China had recovered to 80% of the same period last year.<b>Therefore, I believe that a complete supply chain is a significant benefit that China has provided in this round of global trade and global manufacturing.</b></p><p>The second point is the issue of new domestic products that you just mentioned.</p><p>Last year I conducted research and discovered that Chinese exports were all manufactured by OEMs, using other brands. Nowadays, a large number of Chinese exported goods have their own brands.</p><p>Today, there are approximately tens of thousands of independent brands of goods sold globally throughout China. These brands have achieved a new brand breakthrough by offering affordable prices and high-quality products, which is one of the fundamental reasons why Chinese goods have exceeded expectations in exports:<b>Our competitiveness, our channel capabilities, and our brand building capabilities have all withstood the test of this round of the COVID-19 pandemic.</b></p><p><b>6. Grasp the shift in stock market style</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What are your thoughts on the stock market decline in the first quarter? What are your assessments of the market outlook?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>I will mainly talk about the style of the market.</p><p><b>For this year, if we continue to focus on the major trends of inflation expectations and liquidity turning points, then everyone should pay attention to the fact that the market style will still undergo significant changes this year.</b></p><p><b>Those sectors that were previously overvalued may still be under pressure against the backdrop of rising interest rates, as rising interest rates destroy valuations. However, because inflation expectations have risen, I believe it should be positive for cyclical commodities, those benefiting from price increases, and those benefiting from the recovery of global trade.</b></p><p><b>As for carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, those are all synergistic conditions and catalysts that do not change the general direction.</b></p><p><b>This is my view on this year's stock market: structural opportunities coexist with structural risks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4561949a58567284017c6d57f824eb3\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>So what should ordinary stock investors and fund investors do?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping:</b>Grasp this shift in market style.<b>When choosing a fund manager, you should also select those who can make decisions quickly and make style changes, or who are good at managing the beneficiary sectors I just mentioned.</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>Here I want to remind everyone that Chinese stock market investors have a problem called ADHD: they buy stocks and look at them every day, panicking whether they rise or fall. Okay, now that I've bought funds, fund investors also have ADHD. Even though they've entrusted their professional skills to those fund managers, they still check every day to see if the funds have gone up or down.</p><p>We have data showing that when Americans buy a fund, its portfolio adjustment cycle is 16 months, while in China it is two months, a difference of about 8 times.</p><p>As the capital market and industries become more rational, our investment philosophy should also become more rational. ADHD is a common problem we made when we were kids in elementary school. If you still have ADHD when you're in college, isn't that a very troublesome thing?</p><p><b>7. What are your thoughts on 2021?</b></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>What do you think about the future? What advice do you have for our business owners and general new middle-class families?</p><p><b>Ren Zeping: I have a few judgments.</b></p><p><b>Firstly, in the short term, the first quarter may mark the peak of the Chinese economy or enter a peak range, while the growth rate in the second and third quarters may gradually slow down.</b></p><p>Because it's impossible for everything to be 18.3%, the rest...<b>China's economy is gradually returning to normal.</b>The base effect of the pandemic will gradually fade.<b>。</b>However, there is no need to worry too much about this slowdown. For example, it is normal for it to drop from around 18% to 10%, 8%, or 6% in the future.</p><p><b>China's potential future economic growth rate is around 5% to 6%.</b></p><p>The second judgment is that China's monetary authorities are quite responsible, and relatively speaking, they have excessively issued money. However, thankfully, RMB assets are relatively safe to maintain their value.</p><p>Thirdly, from a longer-term perspective, including the response to the pandemic this time and the previous response to the Sino-US trade friction, I think China has handled it quite well.</p><p>Because it is mainly addressed through reform. In particular, China's current growth trend, or what people call its national destiny, is indeed still on an upward trend.</p><p>Therefore, for us entrepreneurs and ordinary people, I think we should have confidence in China's economic growth and development.</p><p>Because no one can choose their front, and our camp is already very good, we will be fortunate to witness China surpassing the United States to become the world's largest economy in the next 10 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30837fc9cb7ccb39fd10cbf28f6a5a8\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Wu Xiaobo:</b>This discusses the fate of the nation. In our economic history research, we have data that China was the world's largest economy for a long time during the agrarian civilization period, but by 1828, China's total economic output had been surpassed by Britain.</p><p>It has been almost 200 years since 1828. Today, China's total economic output is 70% of that of the United States. If it maintains this growth rate, China's total economic output should have the opportunity to surpass that of the United States around 2028 or 2030. That is, in exactly 200 years, this country will become the world's largest economy.</p><p><b>Therefore, I believe that each of us is a son of an era, a product of an era. Then, confidence in oneself comes first and foremost from confidence in the growth of the country and the national economy.</b></p><p>If you think the elevator has started to descend and is no longer running, can you outrun it no matter how fast you run? If we are optimistic about the country's economic development in the medium to long term, then the remaining question is what should we do? Are there any constructive and rational ways to run forward even while standing still in an elevator, or to quickly take off my shoes and run faster than others?</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45beeaf0c418cf3a981fe39c9c445e4e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104243150","content_text":"4月16日上午10点，国家统计局公布了2021年一季度宏观经济报告，其中有非常多数据，最引人关注的，就是今年一季度我们的GDP同比增长了18.3%。这个亮眼的数据，是建立在去年疫情暴发，中国经济遭遇毁灭性打击的背景下，一个强劲反弹。这个18.3%，到底意味着什么？就在报告发布两个小时后，吴晓波老师连线任泽平博士，在泽平宏观视频号和吴晓波频道视频号直播间一起，针对这些数据，进行了长达一个多小时的探讨。小巴这就为大家奉上他们本次对谈的精华内容。1、18.3%意味着什么吴晓波：2021年一季度GDP同比增长18.3%，这意味着什么？任泽平：看上去18.3%是很高的。其实我们计算一下，去年由于疫情，一季度增速是-6.8%，所以说它有一个基数原因。剔除掉这个原因，我们连续两年复合平均增速是5%。但它传递的一个信号是，从去年二季度复苏以来，到去年四季度，中国经济已经回到正常的增长水平了。第二个点是中国在这一次抗击疫情和经济复苏方面，真实地走在了全球前面。第三个，就是这种经济复苏对政策的影响和对股市的影响。我们先来说对政策的影响。从去年二季度经济复苏以后，尤其是在今年去年四季度，我们经济增速就回到6%以上了。这时候，我们的货币政策发生了调整，从原来的宽松到所谓的货币政策正常化。这就是为什么我在去年底讲通胀预期，今年年初说流动性拐点。更重要的是A股的市场风格发生了切换。流动性拐点出来以后，整个市场从原来的高估值板块切换到了周期品涨价受益品、低估值板块和受益于全球贸易复苏的板块，这跟之前我们所说的大的逻辑是一脉相承的。但这里还有一个问题值得注意。现在中国和美国不在一个轨道上。在复苏方面，中国经济领先于美国经济三个季度，美国经济实际上从今年年初才开始复苏。我们是处于货币政策正常化的过程当中，而美国因为刚开始复苏，所以它对货币政策宽松的诉求还是非常强烈的。这就是为什么我们的股市风格切换甚至有了一轮调整，但是美股还在创新高。背后的原因就是经济复苏的周期不一样，各自货币政策的松紧程度也不一样。总的来说，经济复苏的成绩还是非常靓丽的。我觉得这个数据客观讲还是对过去一年在各个抗疫战线上做出贡献的，我们的企业、包括我们医学界人士的一次致敬。吴晓波：你最早提出通胀预期和流动性拐点这两个宏观判断，提出的时候还在学界内引起了很大的一个争议。我想知道，你对去年这个通胀预期的判断是建立在怎么样的一个数据模型上？任泽平：这个框架基于的是所谓的经济周期。经济周期一般分为四个阶段：衰退、复苏、过热、滞胀，然后再衰退、复苏、过热、滞胀。衰退实际上是从2019年的下半年到疫情暴发，就存在非常明显的衰退。然后从二季度到四季度，它就复苏了。但是到了去年四季度以后，经济回归到了正常的水平，然后再演化下去，肯定就是我们进入到一个通胀和过热的阶段，大致在去年底到今年上半年，所以我们做出了这样的一个判断。2、CPI已不能反映老百姓生活吴晓波：我挑战你一下。你提到通胀预期，但是我们从一季度的宏观经济数据中看到，3月份全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨了0.4%，2月份下降了0.2%，环比下降0.5%。但是，我们看到大宗商品价格，一些白电也就是冰箱空调洗衣机，过去一个季度里面涨了10%左右；电影票去年是40块钱一张，现在有的电影院涨到了80块甚至100块；床垫价格跟去年比涨了5%~6%。我很好奇，为什么老百姓感知到了商品价格的上涨，但是在国家统计局这个数据告诉我们说全国居民消费价格同比上涨只有0.4%，为什么会有那么大的差异？任泽平：这是一个好问题，为什么CPI只有零点几？现在大家都普遍感觉，说事实上不可能只有这么点。其实我们感觉到的，是除了猪肉没有涨，其他都在涨。吴晓波：今年一季度，猪肉产量增长31.9%，猪肉产量大规模增长，但猪肉价格下降了12.5%。任泽平：我给大家简单解释一下，因为正好我们这一轮通胀和猪周期是错位的。2019年，我当时提出一句话，叫“拿掉猪以后都是通缩”。因为当时经济不好，就猪价在涨，其他的都还好。吴晓波：当时CPI大概达到百分之三点几到四左右，然后你就提了这个观点，把猪去掉以后，实际上CPI是到零点几左右，甚至还是负增长的。任泽平：是的，正好因为2020年，猪肉价格在下跌，因此今年是典型的“拿掉猪以后都是通胀”，你会发现除了猪肉不涨，其他都在涨。大宗商品价格在涨、房价在涨、原油价格在涨，还有大家未来的装修成本也会涨，因为最近钢铁和铜都在上涨。然后我们再来看PPI，就是我们工业品价格指数。工业品价格指数3月份是涨到了4.4%，3%是警戒线，它已经涨到了4.4%了。吴晓波：4.4%涨得很厉害，3月份的同比上涨4.4%，比2月份扩大了2.7个百分点。你估计二季度的工业产品价格会怎么样？任泽平：我估计二季度、三季度会继续上涨。吴晓波：所以不是个好消息。任泽平：不是个好消息。二季度为什么会继续上涨？一个是经济复苏的共振，全球、欧美、中国，包括日本。还有美国让美元不负责任地流动性泛滥，它推出了一个3万亿美元的基建刺激计划，要和中国在新基建领域进行竞争，但钱从哪里来，肯定大部分通过超发货币。说回刚才的话题，过去这几年，猪肉对于CPI的影响太大了，但是比如说，比较有代表性的，住房价格指数没有拉进来。CPI叫居民消费品价格指数，就是居民支出的一篮子。在居民支出里面，咱们坦率地讲，吃猪肉能吃多少？但是如房租等其他的支出占比是越来越高了。所以CPI的指标越来越不能够反映老百姓真实体验到的通胀。因此要尊重客观情况，把猪的权重稍微降一降，然后把居住类的、包括老百姓现在最新的消费篮子里面权重比较大的提一提，这样的话我们看经济形势也好，货币政策的调控也好，能够看得更精准一点。吴晓波：所有的宏观经济数据都是建立在模型基础上的。那如果这个模型出了问题的话，你最终所有导出的数据都会出问题。任泽平：晓波说得对。比如说我今年CPI只上涨了0.4%，如果按照标准，0.4%在中国属于通缩，就不叫通胀了，那么怎么办？肯定今年要通过发货币继续刺激，而一旦货币刺激那麻烦了，再刺激那都上天了。吴晓波：你今年年初提出流动性拐点，提出来的时候也是有很多的争议，这个拐点又是怎么被判断出来的？任泽平：既然我们在去年已经看到了所谓通胀预期要起来了，那么从货币政策的角度，因为它要逆周期调节，那么随着经济的复苏，随着通胀起来以后，货币政策就不能再过度宽松了，否则会引发更严重的通胀，甚至经济过热等。所以作为一个负责任的货币当局，它是有责任在今年初把货币政策正常化的，实际上，我们最后记录到，连续两个月M2、社融增速都是下来的。3、人民币稳定是国家对老百姓负责吴晓波：我请教一个问题，在美国政府如今这么大撒钱的情况下，我们中国的人民币政策和货币政策会出现什么样的情况？任泽平：一个就是人民币升值。因为我们没有超发货币，因此保持住了币值的稳定。超发货币的一方，肯定贬值，印少的一方升值。第二个，会有资金流入的趋势。从去年以来，还有很多资金流入到我们国家。吴晓波：去年中国的外资引入是第一次超过美国，成为全球第一大的外资引进国。任泽平：道理很简单，持有美元是一个贬值资产，持有人民币是一个升值资产，所以说从资产配置的角度，让很多投资者愿意持有升值资产，就是人民币。加上中国去年疫情控制得好，所以说在全球都不能进行投资、恢复生产的情况下，只有中国具备这个条件。还有一个我觉得很重要的一点就是国家、政府和国家的央行一定要对老百姓负责。我们的货币政策正常化，按照货币当局讲就是要保持币值的稳定。币值的稳定它在国际场合上是一种说法，但对内部来说，那不就是我们老百姓口袋里的资产，现金流资产能够不被贬值，对吧？能够不被稀释得过多。像美国它过去这一年无上限地超发货币，除了稀释了像中国、日本、中东、全世界的外汇储备之外，其实也牺牲了自己老百姓的现金资产，是很不负责任的。这就是为什么美国民粹主义、逆全球化、占领华尔街运动，这些思潮会盛行。我认为它表面上是货币超发，实际上是货币超发带来的社会阶层、社会财富差距的拉大，以及社会思潮的动荡。4、房价会越来越分化吴晓波：在刚刚公布的一季度数据报告中，关于房地产有三个数据，我给大家先念一下。房地产开发投资同比增长25.6%，全国商品房销售面积同比增长63.8%，商品房的销售额同比增长88.5%，就是销售额增长最快，说明房价还在涨。我近期还观察到一个现象，现在大型城市的那些所谓豪宅或者酒店式公寓，最近涨得非常快。有一个数据，2020年全中国1000万以上单价的房子一共是卖掉了3万套，算一下大概四五千亿，这3万套中，北上广深占到2万套，2万套中的上海占了1万套。那么这就面临一个问题，货币在不断地超发，房地产的投资也在不断地增加，你怎么看房价？任泽平：我觉得是这样对于房地产还有房价，未来大家就记住一个词叫“分化”。大家知道，我是在房地产领域提出过一个分析框架，叫：“房地产，长期看人口，中期看土地，短期看金融”。放在这样的框架下来讲来看当前以及未来中国的房地产市场，这些现象我觉得是不稀奇的。其实城镇化分为两个阶段，第一个是人口从农村到城市，一二三四五六线城市人口普涨，所以房价也是普涨。但是当城镇化率在到达60%左右或者60%以上以后，那么基本就处于一个分化的格局。人口从低能级城市包括农村和三四线城市，往都市圈和城市群流入。所以，不仅是过去这两年，未来10年、20年，大家就会看到这种分化，这在美国、日本都发生过。吴晓波：我记得在2013年、2014年当年做过一个调研，在江苏地区，比如说无锡、苏州、常州它的房价在涨，边上有个地级市叫做镇江，镇江连续11年，人口是净流出的，所以它的房价是停滞的。因此，这个分化其实在六七年前就已经发生了，按刚才泽平老师讲的，未来这种分化景象会越来越严重，年轻人会向超级城市或者一个大型城市圈聚集，然后大城市会产生一个巨大的虹吸现象。一些城市如果它的产业经济不健康，没有很好的社会保障制度，没有很好的创业氛围，或者房价还处在一个比较高的情况下，那就会倒逼年轻人流出。5、出口超预期是中国制造业的胜利吴晓波：相对来讲，人民币处在一个被动升值的状态，这个状态其实是对出口不利的，但是我们看到一季度的数据：一季度货物进出口总额同比增长29.2%，出口商品同比增长38.7%，进口增长19.3%。也就是我们的出口是进口的一倍，然后贸易顺差7593亿元。总的来说一季度的出口是超预期的，你怎么看这个现象？任泽平：因为在过去的一年，人民币升值确实对我们出口是一个负面作用，但是我们还有很多的正面作用抵消了它的负面作用。▶▷第一，在过去的长达一年的时间，世界上绝大部分的制造业大国都无法恢复正常生产，比如德国、美国，只有中国具备正常恢复生产的能力，所以实际上是中国在保障全球的供应。▶▷第二，中国制造业的强大竞争力。这些年通过技术的迭代，包括我们通过机器替代劳工，包括各种降低成本，很好地保持了我们制造业强大的竞争力。▶▷第三，我觉得跟晓波兄长期倡导的一个问题有关，新国货的崛起。吴晓波：我再补充两点。第一点是去年疫情以后，中国是全球第一制造业大国，所以我们的供应链没有断，因为我们最早控制了疫情，中国的整个生产系统仍然在很完整地复苏。去年4月份我开始跑中国的第一家汽车工厂，4月8日武汉还没有开城，但是3月份的时候武汉的汽车工厂就已经开始复工了。到了6月份的时候，全中国所有的整车公司的产能都已经恢复到去年同期的80%。所以我觉得，供应链完整是中国给这一轮全球贸易和全球制造中的一个重大的一个福利。第二点，就是你刚才讲的新国货问题。去年我去调研，然后发现原来中国出口都是代工，就是都用人家的品牌，如今出口的中国大量商品，都有了自己的品牌。今天在全中国有大概几万个独立品牌的商品在全球做销售。这些品牌，通过自己价廉物美的方式，实现了一次新的品牌性的突袭，这个是中国商品能够出口超预期的一个最根本的原因：我们的竞争力，我们的渠道能力，我们的品牌打造能力，在这一轮的新冠疫情下都经受住了考验。6、把握股市风格的切换吴晓波：怎么看现在一季度股市的下跌，你对后市有什么判断？任泽平：我主要讲讲市场的风格。对于今年，如果说我们持续地在通胀预期和流动性拐点这样一个大的趋势上，那么大家要留意的是，今年市场的风格还是会出现比较明显的变化。原来那些高估值的板块，因为在利率上升的背景下，它可能还是承受压力的，因为利率上升是杀估值的；但是因为通胀预期起来了，那么对于周期品，对于涨价受益的，对受益于全球贸易复苏的，我认为应该是利好的。至于什么碳中和、碳达峰，那都是一些配合性的条件，都是一些催化剂，不改变大方向。这是我对今年股市的看法：结构性的机会与结构性的风险并存。吴晓波：那对一般的股民、一般的基民来说，应该怎么办呢？任泽平：把握住市场风格的这种切换。就是你在挑选基金经理的时候，也要挑选那些比如说能够很快地杀伐决断，做出风格切换的人，或者说擅长做我刚才讲的那几个受益板块的基金经理。吴晓波：这里我要提醒下大家，中国的股民有一个毛病叫做多动症：买股票每天去看，涨也慌跌也慌；好了，现在买基金了，基民也有多动症，他们专业能力明明是拜托给了那些基金经理，但是还是每天去看，去看基金涨了还是跌了。我们有个数据，美国人买一个基金，它的调仓周期是16个月，中国的是两个月，差8倍左右。资本市场在趋于理性化、产业在趋于理性化，我们的投资理念也要趋于理性化。多动症是我们小时候读小学的时候常犯的毛病，如果你读大学了，还多动症，这不是很麻烦的一件事情吗？7、2021年接下来怎么看吴晓波：你对未来怎么看？对我们的企业经营者、一般的新中产家庭来说，你有什么建议？任泽平：我有几个判断。第一个从短期来说，有可能一季度是中国经济的一个顶部，或者进入一个顶部区间，而二季度、三季度的增速有可能会逐步地放缓。因为不可能都是18.3%，后面中国经济逐步回归正常化，疫情这个基数效应将会逐渐消退。不过对这种放缓大家也不用过度担忧，比如从百分之十八点几未来降到10%、降到8%、降到6%很正常。中国经济未来潜在增长率就是5%~6%左右。第二个判断，就是中国的货币当局还是比较负责任的，相对而言其实也货币超发了，但是还好，所以人民币资产还是相对比较保值的。第三个，站在更长期的角度，包括像这次应对疫情，包括之前应对中美贸易摩擦，我觉得中国应对得还是比较好的。因为它主要还是通过改革的方式来应对。尤其是中国这一轮增长的趋势，或者说大家讲的国运，确实还在上升的势头上。所以，对于我们企业家，对我们老百姓，我觉得要对中国的经济增长、中国的发展有信心。因为谁也无法选择战线，而且本身我们阵营就很好，我们将有幸见证在未来10年中国超过美国成为世界第一大经济体。吴晓波：这边讲到了国运。我们在做经济史研究中有一个数据，就是中国在农耕文明时期，很长一段时间里是全球第一大经济体，但是到了1828年的时候，中国的经济总量被英国超越。1828年到现在将近200年。今天中国的经济总量是美国的70%，如果保持这样的发展速度，中国经济总量应该会在2028年或者2030年左右有机会超过美国，也就是整整200年后，这个国家将成为全球第一大经济体。所以我觉得我们每个人都是一个时代的儿子，都是一个时代的产物。然后对自己的信心，首先是来自对这个国家、对国民经济的成长的一个信心。如果你认为电梯已经开始下行了、已经不跑了，你跑得再快能跑得过电梯吗？如果在中长期内我们看好国家经济发展的话，那么我们剩下来的问题是我们应该怎么办，我们有没有一些建设性、理性的方式能够在电梯里面我站着不动，也能往前跑，或者是在电梯里面我还抓紧地脱了鞋子往前跑，跑得比别人更快一点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375372866,"gmtCreate":1619312682955,"gmtModify":1704722251902,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568196683280287","idStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375372866","repostId":"1189556280","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375915083,"gmtCreate":1619275872142,"gmtModify":1704722044202,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568196683280287","idStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375915083","repostId":"1170368925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376680219,"gmtCreate":1619109213131,"gmtModify":1704719859730,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568196683280287","idStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376680219","repostId":"2129387412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378856004,"gmtCreate":1619017380408,"gmtModify":1704718416004,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568196683280287","idStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378856004","repostId":"1161095162","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161095162","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618973932,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161095162?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 10:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Who is better at speculating on Chinese concept stocks, Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Management?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161095162","media":"投中网","summary":"2020年高瓴投资中概股的收益约45亿美元，老虎的收益约48亿美元，两家PE炒股的秘诀是什么？\n\n老虎和高瓴，已经成为最会炒中概股的两家PE。\n老虎环球基金2020年赚了100多亿美元，京东、拼多多两","content":"<p><b>In 2020, Hillhouse Capital invested approximately $4.5 billion in Chinese concept stocks, while Tiger Holdings earned approximately $4.8 billion. What are the secrets of these two private equity firms in stock trading?</b>Tiger Holdings and Hillhouse Capital have become the two private equity firms best at speculating on Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Tiger Global Fund earned more than $10 billion in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Two stocks alone earned Tiger $4.2 billion; Hillhouse Capital held $12.6 billion in U.S. stocks by the end of 2020, and Chinese concept stocks brought Hillhouse approximately $4.5 billion in revenue last year.</p><p>When it comes to speculating on Chinese concept stocks, Tiger Holdings and Hillhouse Capital have many similar operations: such as heavy investments.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Alibaba increased its holdings in JD.com and Pinduoduo after the outbreak of the pandemic, and gradually reduced its holdings in new energy vehicle stocks in the fourth quarter, etc. However, upon closer analysis, the two have significantly different styles. For example, Hillhouse Capital prefers to engage in swing trading, while Tiger Holdings prefers to hold for the long term. Hillhouse Capital has a broader reach, with Tiger Holdings concentrated in sectors it is familiar with, such as e-commerce, education, and streaming media...</p><p>First, it should be emphasized that the purpose of this article is to summarize the characteristics of Hillhouse Capital and Tiger House stock trading, rather than to define all the investment strategies of the two private equity firms. Hillhouse Capital manages nearly $80 billion in assets, but its US stock position only accounts for one-seventh of its portfolio. Although Tiger Global Management significantly increased the proportion of US stocks in its portfolio in 2020, the secret to Tiger Global Management's long-term prosperity over the past 17 years has been its entry into the private equity market and its long-term holding after the company went public.</p><p><b>Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Holdings, who is the best at speculating on the PE ratio of Chinese concept stocks?</b></p><p>First, let's review the earnings of Hillhouse Capital and Tiger Holdings in Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0d3e0db1c8cdcf3e3d65f30aa474cf4\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"1105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's first look at Hillhouse Capital, as shown in the table above.<b>In 2020, Hillhouse Capital held 37 Chinese concept stocks, generating a total revenue of approximately US$4.5 billion for the year.</b></p><p>In Hillhouse Capital's portfolio, the five stocks with the highest returns are Pinduoduo, JD.com, and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Full-year revenues were $1.432 billion, $823 million, $719 million, $507 million, and $409 million, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d647c9926c7b5548e830b4326f1ad70\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the tiger again, as shown in the table above,<b>In 2020, Tiger Holdings held 25 Chinese concept stocks, with a total annual revenue of US$4.8 billion.</b>It accounted for 46% of Tiger Global Fund's total revenue in 2020 (approximately US$10.4 billion).</p><p>In Tiger's portfolio of Chinese concept stocks, JD.com, Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The three stocks generated the highest returns, with a combined total return of $4.71 billion, accounting for 99% of the total returns of all Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p>At first glance, Hillhouse Capital and Tiger Holdings share many similarities in terms of both returns and positions. However, analyzing their investment behavior reveals significant differences between Hillhouse Capital and Tiger Holdings when it comes to trading Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e60a0d09f7044f0a41594bddaf7ea0\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First, there's the difference in stock selection.</b></p><p>Tiger's choice of Chinese concept stocks is essentially a continuation of its PE department's investment strategy. As shown in the chart above, as of the fourth quarter of 2020, Tiger Global Management's position in Chinese concept stocks accounted for approximately 25% of its US stock position. The positions of China's three e-commerce giants, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Alibaba, exceeded $1 billion. Among them, JD.com's stock position reached $4.5 billion, making it the stock with the highest holdings of Tiger Global Management, accounting for 11.6% of Tiger Global Management's total US stock position.</p><p>Besides e-commerce, Tiger's most invested sectors were education (6 stocks) and streaming media (5 stocks). In addition, Tiger also participated in industries such as data centers and new energy vehicles, which were relatively popular in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81b095caa7c0f8bb035d79124b368c38\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"1142\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, Hillhouse Capital's reach is broader. As of Q4 2020, Hillhouse Capital's total positions in Chinese concept stocks amounted to US$7.13 billion, accounting for approximately 57% of its total US stock positions, including Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06160\">BeiGene</a>JD.com holds over $1 billion in three stocks.</p><p>In terms of industry classification, e-commerce is also Hillhouse Capital's favorite sector. Besides the three giants JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo, Hillhouse Capital also holds...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mogujie</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>(Cleared out)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Uxin</a>Vertical e-commerce platforms, etc. In addition, pharmaceuticals are also a key industry for Hillhouse Capital. In 2020, Hillhouse Capital invested in six Chinese concept pharmaceutical companies. In addition to Chinese concept stocks, Hillhouse Capital also invested in nearly 30 European and American healthcare companies in 2020.</p><p>Besides focusing on e-commerce, healthcare, and education, Hillhouse Capital has also ventured into many other popular Chinese concept stocks, including Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">Global Data</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">Miniso</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/API\">Sound Network</a>, to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>Looking for a house<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>The group and three emerging electric vehicle manufacturers, among the popular Chinese concept stocks in 2020, besides those at the end of the year...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Hillhouse Capital did not miss any other opportunities.</p><p>Another manifestation of Hillhouse Capital's strong stock selection ability is its ability to \"avoid pitfalls.\" In 2020, the two biggest pitfalls for Chinese concept stocks were Luckin Coffee and Eggshell. These two stocks were previously popular Chinese concept stocks, but Hillhouse Capital perfectly avoided them. Besides because<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Hillhouse Capital lost approximately $100 million from its position, and it hardly made any money from speculating on Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><b>The second point is the difference in buying strategies.</b></p><p>Tiger rarely buys Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market; most of its holdings are investments completed during the private equity stage. The only exception is e-commerce. In 2020, Tiger only bought shares of JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo on the secondary market. The e-commerce industry is also the area that Tiger is most familiar with. Whether it was investing in Dangdang Excellence in its early years or investing in JD.com to achieve instant fame, Chinese e-commerce can be said to be the gateway for Tiger to enter the top private equity firm.</p><p>Hillhouse Capital also secured entry into top private equity firms through the JD.com case, but its speculation on Chinese concept stocks is not limited to e-commerce. In 2020, Hillhouse Capital purchased at least 14 Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market, according to Perfect Diary.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">Global Data</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Hillhouse Capital had previously purchased several popular Chinese concept stocks in the automotive industry in 2020 on the secondary market and participated as a cornerstone investor.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>\"IPO subscription\" for those looking for housing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0629fe2e85c24d191c22721db6d0e861\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another noteworthy point is the investment in Bilibili. Bilibili's stock price began to take off after the New Year's Eve gala in 2019. Hillhouse Capital was not an early investor in Bilibili and did not begin to increase its holdings in Bilibili until Q4 2020. There is no news in the public information that Bilibili introduced strategic investors from Hillhouse Capital. In other words, Hillhouse Capital most likely bought Bilibili stock in the secondary market.</p><p>In Q4 2018, Hillhouse Capital bought 2 million shares, and in the first three quarters of 2019, it bought 1.3 million, 4.5 million and 4.8 million shares respectively. Hillhouse Capital's total holding cost was less than $180 million, but it earned nearly $650 million, a return of 260%, which is more than most VCs who bet on Bilibili.</p><p><b>The third point is the difference in investment styles.</b></p><p>Tiger's investment style in Chinese concept stocks is relatively stable. For JD.com, Pinduoduo, Alibaba,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>Whether Tiger Bros. increases or decreases its holdings in these heavily invested Chinese concept stocks, the magnitude of each increase is not large. For example, the proportion of holdings in JD.com was reduced by about 4% in Q1 2020, the proportion of holdings increased by about 2% in Q2 2020, and there was also a reduction in holdings in Q4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>The proportion shall not exceed 15%.</p><p>Hillhouse Capital, on the other hand, prefers swing trading and even goes All in at every turn. For example, JD.com first reduced its holdings by 30% in Q2, directly increased its holdings by 100% in Q3, and then reduced its holdings by nearly 20% in Q4. The operations were not only frequent, but the proportion of holdings increased and reduced each quarter far exceeded that of Tiger Holdings. Furthermore, in the fourth quarter of last year, Hillhouse Capital directly sold off all shares of emerging electric vehicle manufacturers at their peak, including Future, XPeng, and Li Auto. In 2020, Hillhouse Capital sold off 13 Chinese concept stocks, five of which were purchased within the year.</p><p><b>Finally, there's another particularly interesting phenomenon: regarding...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Different treatment of Alibaba's two stocks.</b></p><p>Alibaba and iQiyi are both stocks heavily invested in by Tiger Hills and Hillhouse Capital. At the beginning of 2020, Hillhouse Capital held nearly 2 million Alibaba shares (worth approximately US$400 million) and 12 million iQiyi shares (worth approximately US$400 million) respectively, while Tiger Hills held 3.5 million Alibaba shares (worth approximately US$700 million) and 1 million iQiyi shares (worth approximately US$21 million) respectively.</p><p>Both companies encountered trouble in 2020. At the beginning of the year, iQiyi was targeted by short-selling institutions, and it was later reported that it was under investigation by the sec. Alibaba, on the other hand, ran into trouble at the end of the year due to domestic anti-monopoly investigations and the failure of Ant Group's IPO.</p><p>Tiger sold off its iQiyi shares in Q2, but never reduced its holdings in Alibaba, which even reduced Alibaba's earnings by about $300 million in Q4 2020. Hillhouse Capital was decisive in its decision regarding Alibaba, directly liquidating all of its Alibaba shares in Q4, but did not \"abandon\" iQiyi. It only reduced its holdings by about 8 million shares in Q3 and Q4, which is about one-sixth of its total holdings.</p><p>Faced with the same crisis and different companies, Tiger Hills and Hillhouse Capital took two completely opposite actions, and the reasons behind them are worth our serious consideration.</p><p><b>JD.com succeeds, and no matter how much it succeeds, it still belongs to JD.com</b></p><p>Finally, let's talk about Tiger Hills and Hillhouse Capital's investment in JD.com.</p><p>Both Hillhouse Capital and Tiger Holdings rose to fame because of JD.com, thus joining the ranks of the world's top private equity firms. Tiger Inc. launched its first private equity fund in 2003 and raised approximately $6 billion in the following 11 years. After JD.com went public in 2014, Tiger Inc. raised nearly $18 billion in seven years, three times the amount raised in the previous 11 years.</p><p>The same applies to Hillhouse Capital. When Zhang Lei founded Hillhouse Capital in 2005, all he received was $20 million in seeds provided by David Swenson and others. After JD.com went public in 2014, Hillhouse Capital accelerated its fundraising, and by 2020, its asset management scale had exceeded 500 billion yuan (about 76 billion US dollars).</p><p>Let's first review the investments made by Tiger Holdings and Hillhouse Capital in JD.com before its IPO.</p><p>Hillhouse Capital invested in JD.com's Series C financing in 2010, with a total investment of $300 million, according to media reports, of which $65 million was invested in convertible bonds. These convertible bonds were converted into 86 million ordinary shares in 2012. Combined with the 230 million Series C preferred shares acquired in the Series C round, Hillhouse Capital holds a total of 319 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 159 million ADSs) after its listing on JD.com.</p><p>Tiger Inc. invested in JD.com several times between 2010 and 2012, including $75 million in 2012. According to the prospectus, Tiger Inc. held 445 million ordinary shares of JD.com (equivalent to 222 million ADS) before the IPO. However, after JD.com went public, Tiger distributed most of its shares to its LPs, leaving only 5 million shares belonging to Tiger Global Fund by the end of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb64858e3a35393daed3822f4349eaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the chart above, at the end of 2014, Hillhouse Capital still held 152 million shares of JD.com stock. In 2015, Hillhouse Capital began to gradually reduce its holdings of JD.com stock, of which it reduced its holdings by about 30 million shares in 2015, making a profit of more than US$800 million. In 2016, Hillhouse Capital further accelerated its share reduction, and by Q2 2018, it had reduced its holdings to approximately 21 million shares, making a profit of approximately US$3.4 billion during the period. At this time, the return on Hillhouse Capital's investment in JD.com had reached nearly US$5 billion.</p><p>In 2018, due to the impact of the Liu Qiangdong Mingzhou incident, JD.com's stock price began to enter a long period of stagnation. At this time, Hillhouse Capital also slowed down its reduction of holdings and bought a small amount of JD.com stock in two quarters of 2019.</p><p>By early 2020, Hillhouse Capital's holdings in JD.com had decreased to 12 million shares, with a total market value of approximately $420 million. Because the pandemic accelerated its performance recovery, JD.com's stock price surged in 2020, and Hillhouse Capital invested more than $500 million to buy JD.com stock in Q2 2020. Ultimately, Hillhouse Capital earned about $800 million from JD.com stock in 2020.</p><p>Tiger's actions were the exact opposite of JD.com's. After going public, Tiger distributed most of its shares to its LPs, leaving only 5 million shares in its holdings at the end of 2014. However, Tiger subsequently began to increase its holdings in JD.com. In Q1 and Q2 of 2015, Tiger invested nearly $2 billion, purchasing 16 million and 50 million shares of JD.com stock through its funds, respectively.</p><p>In the following years, Tiger Holdings reduced its holdings of JD.com stock at a very slow pace, dropping to 40 million shares by Q2 2018, a reduction of about 40% (Hillhouse Capital had already reduced its holdings by nearly 90% during the same period). However, after the Minnesota incident in 2018, Tiger Holdings chose to further increase its holdings of JD.com, purchasing nearly 16 million shares of JD.com stock for about $500 million in the following two quarters.</p><p>By early 2020, Tiger held 53 million shares of JD.com. In that year, JD.com's stock price more than doubled, earning Tiger nearly $2.8 billion.</p><p>When JD.com went public, Hillhouse Capital reported a return of approximately $3 billion based on the issue price. Subsequently, through long-term holding, Hillhouse Capital earned an additional $2.5 billion from JD.com. After Tiger Bros. went public on JD.com, it distributed $4.2 billion worth of stock to its limited partners (calculated at the issue price). After speculating on JD.com stock for seven years, Tiger Bros. himself earned another $3.1 billion.</p>","source":"tzw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is better at speculating on Chinese concept stocks, Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Management?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is better at speculating on Chinese concept stocks, Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Management?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投中网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-21 10:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>In 2020, Hillhouse Capital invested approximately $4.5 billion in Chinese concept stocks, while Tiger Holdings earned approximately $4.8 billion. What are the secrets of these two private equity firms in stock trading?</b>Tiger Holdings and Hillhouse Capital have become the two private equity firms best at speculating on Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>Tiger Global Fund earned more than $10 billion in 2020.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Two stocks alone earned Tiger $4.2 billion; Hillhouse Capital held $12.6 billion in U.S. stocks by the end of 2020, and Chinese concept stocks brought Hillhouse approximately $4.5 billion in revenue last year.</p><p>When it comes to speculating on Chinese concept stocks, Tiger Holdings and Hillhouse Capital have many similar operations: such as heavy investments.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Alibaba increased its holdings in JD.com and Pinduoduo after the outbreak of the pandemic, and gradually reduced its holdings in new energy vehicle stocks in the fourth quarter, etc. However, upon closer analysis, the two have significantly different styles. For example, Hillhouse Capital prefers to engage in swing trading, while Tiger Holdings prefers to hold for the long term. Hillhouse Capital has a broader reach, with Tiger Holdings concentrated in sectors it is familiar with, such as e-commerce, education, and streaming media...</p><p>First, it should be emphasized that the purpose of this article is to summarize the characteristics of Hillhouse Capital and Tiger House stock trading, rather than to define all the investment strategies of the two private equity firms. Hillhouse Capital manages nearly $80 billion in assets, but its US stock position only accounts for one-seventh of its portfolio. Although Tiger Global Management significantly increased the proportion of US stocks in its portfolio in 2020, the secret to Tiger Global Management's long-term prosperity over the past 17 years has been its entry into the private equity market and its long-term holding after the company went public.</p><p><b>Hillhouse Capital or Tiger Holdings, who is the best at speculating on the PE ratio of Chinese concept stocks?</b></p><p>First, let's review the earnings of Hillhouse Capital and Tiger Holdings in Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0d3e0db1c8cdcf3e3d65f30aa474cf4\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"1105\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Let's first look at Hillhouse Capital, as shown in the table above.<b>In 2020, Hillhouse Capital held 37 Chinese concept stocks, generating a total revenue of approximately US$4.5 billion for the year.</b></p><p>In Hillhouse Capital's portfolio, the five stocks with the highest returns are Pinduoduo, JD.com, and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Full-year revenues were $1.432 billion, $823 million, $719 million, $507 million, and $409 million, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d647c9926c7b5548e830b4326f1ad70\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Looking at the tiger again, as shown in the table above,<b>In 2020, Tiger Holdings held 25 Chinese concept stocks, with a total annual revenue of US$4.8 billion.</b>It accounted for 46% of Tiger Global Fund's total revenue in 2020 (approximately US$10.4 billion).</p><p>In Tiger's portfolio of Chinese concept stocks, JD.com, Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The three stocks generated the highest returns, with a combined total return of $4.71 billion, accounting for 99% of the total returns of all Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p>At first glance, Hillhouse Capital and Tiger Holdings share many similarities in terms of both returns and positions. However, analyzing their investment behavior reveals significant differences between Hillhouse Capital and Tiger Holdings when it comes to trading Chinese concept stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e60a0d09f7044f0a41594bddaf7ea0\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>First, there's the difference in stock selection.</b></p><p>Tiger's choice of Chinese concept stocks is essentially a continuation of its PE department's investment strategy. As shown in the chart above, as of the fourth quarter of 2020, Tiger Global Management's position in Chinese concept stocks accounted for approximately 25% of its US stock position. The positions of China's three e-commerce giants, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Alibaba, exceeded $1 billion. Among them, JD.com's stock position reached $4.5 billion, making it the stock with the highest holdings of Tiger Global Management, accounting for 11.6% of Tiger Global Management's total US stock position.</p><p>Besides e-commerce, Tiger's most invested sectors were education (6 stocks) and streaming media (5 stocks). In addition, Tiger also participated in industries such as data centers and new energy vehicles, which were relatively popular in 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81b095caa7c0f8bb035d79124b368c38\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"1142\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, Hillhouse Capital's reach is broader. As of Q4 2020, Hillhouse Capital's total positions in Chinese concept stocks amounted to US$7.13 billion, accounting for approximately 57% of its total US stock positions, including Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06160\">BeiGene</a>JD.com holds over $1 billion in three stocks.</p><p>In terms of industry classification, e-commerce is also Hillhouse Capital's favorite sector. Besides the three giants JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo, Hillhouse Capital also holds...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mogujie</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>(Cleared out)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">Uxin</a>Vertical e-commerce platforms, etc. In addition, pharmaceuticals are also a key industry for Hillhouse Capital. In 2020, Hillhouse Capital invested in six Chinese concept pharmaceutical companies. In addition to Chinese concept stocks, Hillhouse Capital also invested in nearly 30 European and American healthcare companies in 2020.</p><p>Besides focusing on e-commerce, healthcare, and education, Hillhouse Capital has also ventured into many other popular Chinese concept stocks, including Bilibili,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">Global Data</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">Miniso</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/API\">Sound Network</a>, to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>Looking for a house<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>The group and three emerging electric vehicle manufacturers, among the popular Chinese concept stocks in 2020, besides those at the end of the year...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Hillhouse Capital did not miss any other opportunities.</p><p>Another manifestation of Hillhouse Capital's strong stock selection ability is its ability to \"avoid pitfalls.\" In 2020, the two biggest pitfalls for Chinese concept stocks were Luckin Coffee and Eggshell. These two stocks were previously popular Chinese concept stocks, but Hillhouse Capital perfectly avoided them. Besides because<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Hillhouse Capital lost approximately $100 million from its position, and it hardly made any money from speculating on Chinese concept stocks in 2020.</p><p><b>The second point is the difference in buying strategies.</b></p><p>Tiger rarely buys Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market; most of its holdings are investments completed during the private equity stage. The only exception is e-commerce. In 2020, Tiger only bought shares of JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo on the secondary market. The e-commerce industry is also the area that Tiger is most familiar with. Whether it was investing in Dangdang Excellence in its early years or investing in JD.com to achieve instant fame, Chinese e-commerce can be said to be the gateway for Tiger to enter the top private equity firm.</p><p>Hillhouse Capital also secured entry into top private equity firms through the JD.com case, but its speculation on Chinese concept stocks is not limited to e-commerce. In 2020, Hillhouse Capital purchased at least 14 Chinese concept stocks in the secondary market, according to Perfect Diary.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">Global Data</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Hillhouse Capital had previously purchased several popular Chinese concept stocks in the automotive industry in 2020 on the secondary market and participated as a cornerstone investor.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>\"IPO subscription\" for those looking for housing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0629fe2e85c24d191c22721db6d0e861\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another noteworthy point is the investment in Bilibili. Bilibili's stock price began to take off after the New Year's Eve gala in 2019. Hillhouse Capital was not an early investor in Bilibili and did not begin to increase its holdings in Bilibili until Q4 2020. There is no news in the public information that Bilibili introduced strategic investors from Hillhouse Capital. In other words, Hillhouse Capital most likely bought Bilibili stock in the secondary market.</p><p>In Q4 2018, Hillhouse Capital bought 2 million shares, and in the first three quarters of 2019, it bought 1.3 million, 4.5 million and 4.8 million shares respectively. Hillhouse Capital's total holding cost was less than $180 million, but it earned nearly $650 million, a return of 260%, which is more than most VCs who bet on Bilibili.</p><p><b>The third point is the difference in investment styles.</b></p><p>Tiger's investment style in Chinese concept stocks is relatively stable. For JD.com, Pinduoduo, Alibaba,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>Whether Tiger Bros. increases or decreases its holdings in these heavily invested Chinese concept stocks, the magnitude of each increase is not large. For example, the proportion of holdings in JD.com was reduced by about 4% in Q1 2020, the proportion of holdings increased by about 2% in Q2 2020, and there was also a reduction in holdings in Q4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>The proportion shall not exceed 15%.</p><p>Hillhouse Capital, on the other hand, prefers swing trading and even goes All in at every turn. For example, JD.com first reduced its holdings by 30% in Q2, directly increased its holdings by 100% in Q3, and then reduced its holdings by nearly 20% in Q4. The operations were not only frequent, but the proportion of holdings increased and reduced each quarter far exceeded that of Tiger Holdings. Furthermore, in the fourth quarter of last year, Hillhouse Capital directly sold off all shares of emerging electric vehicle manufacturers at their peak, including Future, XPeng, and Li Auto. In 2020, Hillhouse Capital sold off 13 Chinese concept stocks, five of which were purchased within the year.</p><p><b>Finally, there's another particularly interesting phenomenon: regarding...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Different treatment of Alibaba's two stocks.</b></p><p>Alibaba and iQiyi are both stocks heavily invested in by Tiger Hills and Hillhouse Capital. At the beginning of 2020, Hillhouse Capital held nearly 2 million Alibaba shares (worth approximately US$400 million) and 12 million iQiyi shares (worth approximately US$400 million) respectively, while Tiger Hills held 3.5 million Alibaba shares (worth approximately US$700 million) and 1 million iQiyi shares (worth approximately US$21 million) respectively.</p><p>Both companies encountered trouble in 2020. At the beginning of the year, iQiyi was targeted by short-selling institutions, and it was later reported that it was under investigation by the sec. Alibaba, on the other hand, ran into trouble at the end of the year due to domestic anti-monopoly investigations and the failure of Ant Group's IPO.</p><p>Tiger sold off its iQiyi shares in Q2, but never reduced its holdings in Alibaba, which even reduced Alibaba's earnings by about $300 million in Q4 2020. Hillhouse Capital was decisive in its decision regarding Alibaba, directly liquidating all of its Alibaba shares in Q4, but did not \"abandon\" iQiyi. It only reduced its holdings by about 8 million shares in Q3 and Q4, which is about one-sixth of its total holdings.</p><p>Faced with the same crisis and different companies, Tiger Hills and Hillhouse Capital took two completely opposite actions, and the reasons behind them are worth our serious consideration.</p><p><b>JD.com succeeds, and no matter how much it succeeds, it still belongs to JD.com</b></p><p>Finally, let's talk about Tiger Hills and Hillhouse Capital's investment in JD.com.</p><p>Both Hillhouse Capital and Tiger Holdings rose to fame because of JD.com, thus joining the ranks of the world's top private equity firms. Tiger Inc. launched its first private equity fund in 2003 and raised approximately $6 billion in the following 11 years. After JD.com went public in 2014, Tiger Inc. raised nearly $18 billion in seven years, three times the amount raised in the previous 11 years.</p><p>The same applies to Hillhouse Capital. When Zhang Lei founded Hillhouse Capital in 2005, all he received was $20 million in seeds provided by David Swenson and others. After JD.com went public in 2014, Hillhouse Capital accelerated its fundraising, and by 2020, its asset management scale had exceeded 500 billion yuan (about 76 billion US dollars).</p><p>Let's first review the investments made by Tiger Holdings and Hillhouse Capital in JD.com before its IPO.</p><p>Hillhouse Capital invested in JD.com's Series C financing in 2010, with a total investment of $300 million, according to media reports, of which $65 million was invested in convertible bonds. These convertible bonds were converted into 86 million ordinary shares in 2012. Combined with the 230 million Series C preferred shares acquired in the Series C round, Hillhouse Capital holds a total of 319 million ordinary shares (equivalent to 159 million ADSs) after its listing on JD.com.</p><p>Tiger Inc. invested in JD.com several times between 2010 and 2012, including $75 million in 2012. According to the prospectus, Tiger Inc. held 445 million ordinary shares of JD.com (equivalent to 222 million ADS) before the IPO. However, after JD.com went public, Tiger distributed most of its shares to its LPs, leaving only 5 million shares belonging to Tiger Global Fund by the end of 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb64858e3a35393daed3822f4349eaa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"696\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As shown in the chart above, at the end of 2014, Hillhouse Capital still held 152 million shares of JD.com stock. In 2015, Hillhouse Capital began to gradually reduce its holdings of JD.com stock, of which it reduced its holdings by about 30 million shares in 2015, making a profit of more than US$800 million. In 2016, Hillhouse Capital further accelerated its share reduction, and by Q2 2018, it had reduced its holdings to approximately 21 million shares, making a profit of approximately US$3.4 billion during the period. At this time, the return on Hillhouse Capital's investment in JD.com had reached nearly US$5 billion.</p><p>In 2018, due to the impact of the Liu Qiangdong Mingzhou incident, JD.com's stock price began to enter a long period of stagnation. At this time, Hillhouse Capital also slowed down its reduction of holdings and bought a small amount of JD.com stock in two quarters of 2019.</p><p>By early 2020, Hillhouse Capital's holdings in JD.com had decreased to 12 million shares, with a total market value of approximately $420 million. Because the pandemic accelerated its performance recovery, JD.com's stock price surged in 2020, and Hillhouse Capital invested more than $500 million to buy JD.com stock in Q2 2020. Ultimately, Hillhouse Capital earned about $800 million from JD.com stock in 2020.</p><p>Tiger's actions were the exact opposite of JD.com's. After going public, Tiger distributed most of its shares to its LPs, leaving only 5 million shares in its holdings at the end of 2014. However, Tiger subsequently began to increase its holdings in JD.com. In Q1 and Q2 of 2015, Tiger invested nearly $2 billion, purchasing 16 million and 50 million shares of JD.com stock through its funds, respectively.</p><p>In the following years, Tiger Holdings reduced its holdings of JD.com stock at a very slow pace, dropping to 40 million shares by Q2 2018, a reduction of about 40% (Hillhouse Capital had already reduced its holdings by nearly 90% during the same period). However, after the Minnesota incident in 2018, Tiger Holdings chose to further increase its holdings of JD.com, purchasing nearly 16 million shares of JD.com stock for about $500 million in the following two quarters.</p><p>By early 2020, Tiger held 53 million shares of JD.com. In that year, JD.com's stock price more than doubled, earning Tiger nearly $2.8 billion.</p><p>When JD.com went public, Hillhouse Capital reported a return of approximately $3 billion based on the issue price. Subsequently, through long-term holding, Hillhouse Capital earned an additional $2.5 billion from JD.com. After Tiger Bros. went public on JD.com, it distributed $4.2 billion worth of stock to its limited partners (calculated at the issue price). After speculating on JD.com stock for seven years, Tiger Bros. himself earned another $3.1 billion.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HGCWrdQ_CxJgpybrfRLAbw\">投中网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bab54e49dd53d68a704005a9775aa0d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HGCWrdQ_CxJgpybrfRLAbw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161095162","content_text":"2020年高瓴投资中概股的收益约45亿美元，老虎的收益约48亿美元，两家PE炒股的秘诀是什么？\n\n老虎和高瓴，已经成为最会炒中概股的两家PE。\n老虎环球基金2020年赚了100多亿美元，京东、拼多多两只股票就给老虎赚了42亿美元；高瓴资本截至2020年底持有美股的头寸已经达到126亿美元，中概股去年给高瓴带来约45亿美元的收益。\n在炒中概股这件事儿上，老虎和高瓴有很多相似的操作：比如重仓京东、拼多多和阿里，疫情爆发后加仓京东、拼多多，四季度陆续减持新能源汽车股等等；但仔细分析，二者的风格又有明显的不同，比如高瓴更喜欢做波段操作，老虎却更倾向长期持有；高瓴覆盖的范围更广，老虎的持仓集中在自己熟悉的电商、教育、流媒体等领域……\n先强调一下，这篇文章的目的是总结高瓴、老虎炒股票的特点，而不是定义两家PE全部的投资策略。高瓴资产管理规模近800亿美元，美股头寸只占到资产组合的1/7；老虎虽然在2020年大幅提高了资产组合中美股的占比，但在私募阶段入局并在公司上市后长期持有，才是老虎环球基金成立17年以来长盛的秘诀。\n高瓴、老虎，谁是最会炒中概股的PE？\n首先梳理一下2020年高瓴和老虎在中概股上的收益。\n\n先看高瓴，如上表所示，2020年高瓴资本先后持有37只中概股股票，全年总收益约45亿美元。\n在高瓴的持仓组合中，收益最高的5只股票分别是拼多多、京东、阿里巴巴，百济神州和哔哩哔哩，全年收益分别是14.32亿美元、8.23亿美元、7.19亿美元、5.07亿美元和4.09亿美元。\n\n再看老虎，如上表所示，2020年老虎先后持有25只中概股，全年收益总额为48亿美元，占老虎环球基金2020年总收益（约104亿美元）的46%。\n在老虎的中概股仓位组合中，京东、拼多多、阿里巴巴收益最高，三只股票加起来的总收益高达47.1亿美元，占2020年全部中概股收益的99%。\n乍看之下不论是收益还是仓位，高瓴、老虎有很多相似之处，但分析二者背后的投资行为，却可以发现炒中概股这件事上，高瓴和老虎有着明显的差异。\n\n首先是择股的区别。\n老虎对于中概股的选择，基本是其PE部门投资策略的延续。如上图所示，截至2020年四季度，老虎中概股仓位约占其美股仓位的25%，中国电商三巨头京东、拼多多、阿里巴巴的头寸超过10亿美元，其中京东股票头寸高达45亿美元，是老虎环球基金持仓最高的股票，占老虎全部美股头寸的11.6%。\n除电商之外，老虎投资最多的领域是教育（6只）、流媒体（5只），此外2020年比较热门的数据中心、新能源汽车等行业老虎也有参与。\n\n相比之下高瓴的涉猎范围更广。截至2020年Q4高瓴中概股头寸合计71.3亿美元，约占高瓴全部美股头寸的57%，其中拼多多、百济神州、京东三只股票持仓超过10亿美元。\n从行业分类来看，电商同样是高瓴最喜爱的行业，除了京东、阿里、拼多多三巨头，高瓴还持有蘑菇街、唯品会（已清仓）、优信等垂类电商。此外医药也是高瓴重点布局的行业，2020年高瓴先后投资了6家中概股医药公司，除中概股以外，高瓴还在2020年投资了近30家欧美医疗健康公司。\n除了重点布局的电商、医疗、教育行业，其他热门中概股高瓴也多有涉猎，从B站、万国数据、名创优品、声网，到贝壳找房、华住集团以及三个造车新势力，2020年热门的中概股，除了年底的百度之外高瓴都没有错过。\n高瓴择股能力强的另一个表现是“避坑”能力，2020年中概股最大的两颗雷分别是瑞幸和蛋壳，这两只股票此前也是热门中概股，高瓴却完美避开。除了因为爱奇艺的仓位亏掉约1亿美元，高瓴2020年炒中概股几乎没怎么亏到钱。\n第二点是买入策略的不同。\n老虎很少在二级市场买入中概股，大多数持仓都是在私募阶段完成的投资。唯一的例外是电商，2020年老虎只在二级市场买入京东、阿里、拼多多的股票。电商行业也是老虎最熟悉的领域，不论是早年投资当当卓越，还是投资京东一战成名，中国电商可以说是老虎跻身顶级PE的龙门。\n高瓴也是通过京东的案子拿到顶级PE的入场券，但炒中概股并不局限于电商。2020年高瓴至少在二级市场买入过14只中概股，完美日记、万国数据、蔚来汽车这几个2020年的热门中概股高瓴都曾在二级市场买入，还以基石投资者的身份参与了理想汽车和贝壳找房的“打新”。\n\n另外值得一提的是对B站的投资，B站股价从2019年的跨年晚会后开始起飞，高瓴并不是B站的早期投资者，直到2020年Q4才开始增持B站，公开信息中并没有B站引入高瓴战投的新闻，6也就是说高瓴大概率是在二级市场买入的B站股票。\n2018年Q4买入200万股，2019年前三季度分别买入130万、450万和480万股，高瓴总共的持仓成本不到1.8亿美元，却赚了将近6.5亿美元，回报高达260%，比大部分押中B站的VC挣得都多。\n第三点则是投资风格的区别。\n老虎的中概股投资风格相对稳健。对于京东、拼多多、阿里巴巴、新东方、好未来这些重仓中概股，老虎不论是增持还是减持，每次的幅度都不大。比如2020Q1减持京东的比例约4%，2020Q2增持的比例约2%，还有Q4减持新东方，比例不超过15%。\n高瓴则喜欢波段操作，甚至动辄“All in”。比如京东，Q2高瓴先是减持30%，Q3直接加仓100%，又在Q4减持近20%，操作不仅频繁，每个季度加持减持的比例也远超老虎。还有去年四季度对处于高点的造车新势力，高瓴直接清仓了未来、小鹏、理想的股票。2020年高瓴一共清仓了13只中概股，其中5只股票都是在年内买入。\n最后还有一个特别有意思的现象，就是对于爱奇艺和阿里巴巴两只股票的不同处理。\n阿里和爱奇艺都是老虎和高瓴重仓的股票，2020年初高瓴分别持有近200万股阿里股票（价值约4亿美元）和1200万股爱奇艺股票（价值约4亿美元），老虎分别持有350万股阿里股票（约7亿美元）和100万股爱奇艺股票（价值约2100万美元）。\n2020年这两家公司都遇到了麻烦，年初爱奇艺遭遇做空机构狙击，之后传出遭到sec调查；阿里巴巴则在年底因为国内反垄断调查和蚂蚁上市失败陷入麻烦。\n老虎在Q2清仓了爱奇艺的股票，但始终没有减持阿里的股票，甚至导致2020年阿里股票的收益在Q4减少了约3亿美元；高瓴在阿里这件事上杀伐果断，在Q4直接清仓了阿里股票，却没有“抛弃”爱奇艺，只在Q3、Q4减持了约800万股，约是持股的1/6。\n面对同样的危机，面对不同的公司，老虎和高瓴却做出了两种截然相反的操作，背后的东西值得我们好好思考。\n成也京东，成多少也是京东\n最后，我们来聊一聊老虎和高瓴在京东的投资。\n高瓴和老虎都是因为京东一战成名，由此跻身全球顶尖PE的行列。2003年启动第一期私募基金募集的老虎，之后的11年一共完成了约60亿美元的募资，而在京东2014年上市后，老虎7年里完成了将近180亿美元募资，是之前11年的3倍。\n高瓴也是如此，2005年张磊成立高瓴资本时，手中拿到的不过是大卫·史文森等提供的2000万美元种子，2014年京东上市后高瓴募资加快，到2020年时资管规模已经超过5000亿元（约760亿美元）。\n先回顾一下老虎和高瓴在上市前对京东的投资。\n高瓴在2010年投资京东C轮融资，根据媒体报道投资总额为3亿美元，其中6500万美元是以可转债的方式投资。这部分可转债在2012年转换成8600万股普通股，加上C轮取得的2.3亿股C系列优先股，高瓴在京东上市后一共持有3.19亿普通股（相当于1.59亿ADS）。\n老虎在则在2010年-2012年之间数次投资京东，其中2012年投资京东7500万美元，根据招股书上市前老虎持有京东4.45亿普通股（相当于2.22亿ADS）。但在京东上市后老虎把大部分的股票都分给了LP，截至2014年底属于老虎环球基金的股票只剩下500万股。\n\n如上图所示，2014年底高瓴还持有1.52亿股京东股票，2015年高瓴开始慢慢减持京东股票，其中2015年减持约3000万股，获利超过8亿美元。2016年高瓴进一步加快减持速度，到2018年Q2已经减持到约2100万股，期间获利约34亿美元，此时高瓴投资京东的回报已经将近50亿美元。\n2018年因为刘强东明州事件的影响，京东股价开始进入一个漫长的停滞期，此时高瓴也放缓了减持的动作，2019年还在两个季度买入少量京东股票。\n到了2020年初，高瓴持有的京东股票降至1200万股，总市值约4.2亿美元。而因为疫情加快业绩复苏，京东在2020年股价暴涨，高瓴也在2020年Q2投入超过5亿美元买入京东股票，最终2020年高瓴在京东股票上收益约8亿美元。\n老虎则与京东的操作正好相反，上市后老虎把大部分的股票分给了LP，2014年底的持仓只剩500万股。但此后老虎开始增持京东，2015年Q1和Q2老虎投入近20亿美元，通过旗下基金先后买入1600万和5000万股京东股票。\n之后几年老虎以非常缓慢的速度减持京东股票，到2018Q2时持股降至4000万股，减持约40%（同期高瓴已经减持了将近90%），而在2018年明州事件之后，老虎选择进一步增持京东，接下来的2个季度以约5亿美元的对价买入近1600万股京东股票。\n到2020年初，老虎持有京东5300万股，在这一年里，股价上涨超过2倍的京东，为老虎赚了将近28亿美元。\n京东上市时，按照发行价计算高瓴的回报约30亿美元，此后通过长期持有，高瓴在京东上多赚了25亿美元；老虎在京东上市后给LP们分了价值42亿美元的股票（按照发行价计算），之后炒了7年京东股票，老虎自己又赚了31亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378858887,"gmtCreate":1619017357249,"gmtModify":1704718415022,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568196683280287","idStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378858887","repostId":"1197052490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197052490","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619016662,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197052490?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Focus] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with Yatsen E-commerce gaining over 10%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197052490","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","content":"<p>On April 21, some popular Chinese concept stocks extended their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>It rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">Miniso</a>Fog Core Technology rose more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Focus] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with Yatsen E-commerce gaining over 10%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Focus] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with Yatsen E-commerce gaining over 10%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 22:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On April 21, some popular Chinese concept stocks extended their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>It rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">Miniso</a>Fog Core Technology rose more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8593d7bafc6da002b2ab4975d4711a90","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","YSG":"逸仙电商","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197052490","content_text":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YSG":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TTTN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378853190,"gmtCreate":1619017210310,"gmtModify":1704718412411,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568196683280287","idStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378853190","repostId":"1197052490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197052490","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619016662,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197052490?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-21 22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Focus] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with Yatsen E-commerce gaining over 10%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197052490","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","content":"<p>On April 21, some popular Chinese concept stocks extended their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>It rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">Miniso</a>Fog Core Technology rose more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Focus] Some popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with Yatsen E-commerce gaining over 10%.</title>\n<style 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21, some popular Chinese concept stocks extended their intraday gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a>It rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">Miniso</a>Fog Core Technology rose more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">Dada Group</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">Who to learn from</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose nearly 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14edf0790ae1746f6dba00e29df721c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8593d7bafc6da002b2ab4975d4711a90","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","YSG":"逸仙电商","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197052490","content_text":"4月21日，部分热门中概股盘中涨幅扩大，逸仙电商涨超10%，名创优品、雾芯科技涨超6%，爱奇艺、腾讯音乐涨超4%，达达集团、跟谁学、贝壳涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨近2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YSG":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TTTN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312500010,"gmtCreate":1612161764330,"gmtModify":1704867550715,"author":{"id":"3568196683280287","authorId":"3568196683280287","name":"杨胜胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b07ed709bc0fdb73851119781eaa64","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568196683280287","idStr":"3568196683280287"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"lol","listText":"lol","text":"lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312500010","repostId":"2108278939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}