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沃伦邹菲特

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- 沃伦邹菲特沃伦邹菲特
  ·2021-09-07
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- 沃伦邹菲特沃伦邹菲特
  ·2021-08-30
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- 沃伦邹菲特沃伦邹菲特
  ·2021-08-26
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- 沃伦邹菲特沃伦邹菲特
  ·2021-08-23
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- 沃伦邹菲特沃伦邹菲特
  ·2021-08-15
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- 沃伦邹菲特沃伦邹菲特
  ·2021-08-07
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- 沃伦邹菲特沃伦邹菲特
  ·2021-07-31
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  Tianfeng Macro: How much impact will taper have this time?
  上一次美联储缩减QE发生在2013年。当年5月，伯南克在国会听证会上表示联储可能即将开始缩减QE，但直到当年12月的议息会议才正式决定开启缩减。之后美联储的资产购买规模逐步下降，到2014年10月正
  Tianfeng Macro: How much impact will taper have this time?
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- 沃伦邹菲特沃伦邹菲特
  ·2021-07-28
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- 沃伦邹菲特沃伦邹菲特
  ·2021-07-27
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  Antitrust Upgrade! The European Union is eyeing two more Google services and asking for rectification within 2 months
  法国对谷歌开出2.2亿欧元罚单新浪科技讯北京时间7月26日晚间消息，据报道，欧盟委员会和欧盟消费者当局今日表示，谷歌要在两2个月的时间内，对其航班和酒店搜索服务进行调整，并解释如何对搜索结果进行排名，否则将面临制裁。长期以来，谷歌一直面临世界各地反垄断执法者和消费者团体的审查。之前，谷歌已经有三项服务遭到欧盟的发垄断罚款，罚金高达数十亿美元。
  Antitrust Upgrade! The European Union is eyeing two more Google services and asking for rectification within 2 months
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- 沃伦邹菲特沃伦邹菲特
  ·2021-07-03
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11:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tianfeng Macro: How much impact will taper have this time?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168100836","media":"天风宏观","summary":"上一次美联储缩减QE发生在2013年。\n当年5月，伯南克在国会听证会上表示联储可能即将开始缩减QE，但直到当年12月的议息会议才正式决定开启缩减。之后美联储的资产购买规模逐步下降，到2014年10月正","content":"<p><b>The last time the Fed tapered QE happened in 2013.</b></p><p>In May of that year, Bernanke said at a congressional hearing that the Fed may start to reduce QE soon, but it was not until the interest rate meeting in December of that year that it officially decided to start the reduction. After that, the scale of asset purchases of the Federal Reserve gradually declined, and it officially withdrew from QE in October 2014. After that, the size of the Fed's balance sheet remained basically unchanged until the shrinking balance sheet started in October 2017.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 1: Fed Balance Sheet Changes</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f3f52b0f6d01cd4220bab5ed1b041b\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>When Bernanke first communicated QE taper in May 2013, there was a \"taper tantrum\" in the market.</b></p><p>The reason is that the market misjudged the Fed's monetary policy attitude, thinking that the Fed would open taper in September of that year and soon rate hike. As a result, the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rebounded sharply, rising by 30bp and 130bp respectively in four months, during which interest rates fell twice due to lower-than-expected employment data. After the economic data stabilized and rebounded in December of that year, the Federal Reserve officially opened QE taper. The short-end and long-end interest rates rose again before taper landed, and then the long-end interest rates continued to decline under the circumstances of economic and inflation decline.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 2: U.S. Treasury 10-year yield (%) vs. U.S. Treasury 2-year yield (%)</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe391cb53eee3b96318568155a5e8ea\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: WIND, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>taper tantrum in 2013 caused significant global asset price volatility.</b></p><p>U.S. stocks were once pullback/retracement, but thanks to the economic recovery, they returned to an upward trend. Emerging markets, which rely heavily on overseas capital, suffered withdrawal of funds. Emerging market equity assets fell by more than 10% in the month after taper talk, and emerging market currencies depreciated by 4.9% relative to the US dollar. Comex copper fell 6.7% in a month and gold fell 14.5% after interest rates rebounded, but oil rose 5% amid tight supply and demand.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 3: MSCI EM Index and S&P 500 Index</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/246f9e8db7d509a84d662d99c55788eb\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>Will the QE taper recreate the taper scare of 2013 this time?</b></p><p><b>We don't think the impact should be too big, not only weaker than the 'taper panic' of '13, but probably weaker than the' austerity fears' of February this year.</b></p><p><b>The market expects this taper to be more sufficient.</b></p><p>Expectations have been fermenting since the beginning of the year (Jan. 25) when the minutes of the Fed meeting mentioned \"tapering bond purchases\" (taper). According to a Bloomberg survey, 78% of the economists surveyed expect the Federal Reserve to officially announce the implementation of taper before the end of this year, and 33% of them expect to officially announce it at the end of September. It can be seen that the market has fully expected taper.</p><p>This time, the Federal Reserve learned from past experience and made it clear that it would give a tip in advance before officially announcing the policy change, giving the market time to digest the expectations. Therefore, even if the Fed begins to communicate to withdraw from QE, the market will not panic like in 2013 because of misjudgment of rate hike.</p><p>Referring to the experience of 2013, the Fed may release the signal of reducing QE when employment recovers to around 75%. At the same time, considering that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that the 75% vaccination rate is a necessary condition for reducing the bond purchase plan, the Fed may give the QE reduction plan at the Jackson Hole meeting in August this year or the interest rate meeting in September at the earliest<b>Implication</b>And starting to reduce QE as soon as the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 4: Economists' timing forecasts for taper plans mostly fall before the end of the year</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/978622327c5f1b8291a0f318aa2c42f8\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>As early as February this year, the market had previewed the adjustment brought by monetary tightening fears in advance.</b></p><p>Lifted by inflation expectations, at that time, interest rates rose from 1.08% to a maximum of 1.74%, with an adjustment of 66bp due to investors' concerns that the Federal Reserve may underestimate inflation and tighten the currency early.</p><p>At that time, the adjustment of nominal interest rates also superimposed the rising effect of inflation expectations. Rising commodity prices (mainly oil and copper) caused 10-year breakeven inflation expectations to rise by 47bp from 2.09%.</p><p>However, after May, inflation expectations have fallen ahead of commodity prices, so even if the follow-up US Treasury yields goes up again,<b>The rebound may also be smaller than in February this year</b>。</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 5: U.S. bond interest rates rose rapidly in February this year amid tightening fears and inflation expectations</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af4c49cf45a045194fdab73cafc63018\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>Taper's impact on U.S. debt will react in advance after the Fed releases its signal.</b></p><p>Referring to the situation in 2013, taper can be divided into three steps: release of the signal, official opening, and reduction end (QE exit). After the Fed releases the signal, at the same time, it may be superimposed with the increase of the U.S. debt ceiling, and interest rates will rebound at one time. However, before and after the official opening, interest rates will fall back again as fundamentals weaken. Therefore, taper is only the second derivative inflection point of liquidity, not the influence of trend. Interest rate pressure outside Taper comes from fiscal policies, such as the rising demand for bond issuance in the third quarter and the passage of a scaled-back version of the bipartisan infrastructure agreement.</p><p><b>Taper affects the risk sentiment of U.S. stocks in the short term, but the biggest impact on U.S. stocks is the change in earnings.</b></p><p>In the first half of the year, the earnings forecast of U.S. stocks has been continuously raised, and the EPS in the second quarter of March-May has been revised up by 5.8%. In the second half of the year, the profits of upstream energy, transportation, commercial services and other sectors affected by the epidemic still have room for repair. Information technology, medical and other industries have sufficient cash in hand, and the repurchase efforts are expected to increase, maintaining a moderate increase in EPS. on account of<b>There is little upward pressure on U.S. debt, and the performance of listed companies is still being realized. We believe that U.S. stocks will remain high and volatile in the short term.</b></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 6: Upward revision of EPS since 2016</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dff15e9fa74467e860335ca0727ee2f\" tg-width=\"425\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: factset, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The medium-term risk of U.S. stocks comes from the fact that the previous fastest recovery in history may evolve into the fastest recovery to end in history</b>The \"withdrawal reaction\" after the expiration of fiscal stimulus has a negative impact on optimistic earnings expectations. (See \"The Fastest Recovery in History, and Probably the Fastest Recovery to End\" for details)</p><p>From the release of Taper expectations to the official opening, emerging markets and commodities will still face certain shocks; Then, considering that global demand peaked and fell,<b>Commodity prices have pulled back, inflation expectations continue to fall, growth stocks are expected to make excess returns, and gold continues to fluctuate</b>。</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 7: Cumulative yields of GEM, CSI 300, Nasdaq and Dow Jones from 2013 to 2014</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5996fae5597bb6b5d60cbee85e46f418\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b95b69c3867aa3469a9cc950d027049d\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78a1a412540a2fcf75ff95ca71fb7699\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"30\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1582244978285","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tianfeng Macro: How much impact will taper have this time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTianfeng Macro: How much impact will taper have this time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">天风宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The last time the Fed tapered QE happened in 2013.</b></p><p>In May of that year, Bernanke said at a congressional hearing that the Fed may start to reduce QE soon, but it was not until the interest rate meeting in December of that year that it officially decided to start the reduction. After that, the scale of asset purchases of the Federal Reserve gradually declined, and it officially withdrew from QE in October 2014. After that, the size of the Fed's balance sheet remained basically unchanged until the shrinking balance sheet started in October 2017.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 1: Fed Balance Sheet Changes</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f3f52b0f6d01cd4220bab5ed1b041b\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>When Bernanke first communicated QE taper in May 2013, there was a \"taper tantrum\" in the market.</b></p><p>The reason is that the market misjudged the Fed's monetary policy attitude, thinking that the Fed would open taper in September of that year and soon rate hike. As a result, the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rebounded sharply, rising by 30bp and 130bp respectively in four months, during which interest rates fell twice due to lower-than-expected employment data. After the economic data stabilized and rebounded in December of that year, the Federal Reserve officially opened QE taper. The short-end and long-end interest rates rose again before taper landed, and then the long-end interest rates continued to decline under the circumstances of economic and inflation decline.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 2: U.S. Treasury 10-year yield (%) vs. U.S. Treasury 2-year yield (%)</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe391cb53eee3b96318568155a5e8ea\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: WIND, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>taper tantrum in 2013 caused significant global asset price volatility.</b></p><p>U.S. stocks were once pullback/retracement, but thanks to the economic recovery, they returned to an upward trend. Emerging markets, which rely heavily on overseas capital, suffered withdrawal of funds. Emerging market equity assets fell by more than 10% in the month after taper talk, and emerging market currencies depreciated by 4.9% relative to the US dollar. Comex copper fell 6.7% in a month and gold fell 14.5% after interest rates rebounded, but oil rose 5% amid tight supply and demand.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 3: MSCI EM Index and S&P 500 Index</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/246f9e8db7d509a84d662d99c55788eb\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>Will the QE taper recreate the taper scare of 2013 this time?</b></p><p><b>We don't think the impact should be too big, not only weaker than the 'taper panic' of '13, but probably weaker than the' austerity fears' of February this year.</b></p><p><b>The market expects this taper to be more sufficient.</b></p><p>Expectations have been fermenting since the beginning of the year (Jan. 25) when the minutes of the Fed meeting mentioned \"tapering bond purchases\" (taper). According to a Bloomberg survey, 78% of the economists surveyed expect the Federal Reserve to officially announce the implementation of taper before the end of this year, and 33% of them expect to officially announce it at the end of September. It can be seen that the market has fully expected taper.</p><p>This time, the Federal Reserve learned from past experience and made it clear that it would give a tip in advance before officially announcing the policy change, giving the market time to digest the expectations. Therefore, even if the Fed begins to communicate to withdraw from QE, the market will not panic like in 2013 because of misjudgment of rate hike.</p><p>Referring to the experience of 2013, the Fed may release the signal of reducing QE when employment recovers to around 75%. At the same time, considering that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that the 75% vaccination rate is a necessary condition for reducing the bond purchase plan, the Fed may give the QE reduction plan at the Jackson Hole meeting in August this year or the interest rate meeting in September at the earliest<b>Implication</b>And starting to reduce QE as soon as the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 4: Economists' timing forecasts for taper plans mostly fall before the end of the year</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/978622327c5f1b8291a0f318aa2c42f8\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>As early as February this year, the market had previewed the adjustment brought by monetary tightening fears in advance.</b></p><p>Lifted by inflation expectations, at that time, interest rates rose from 1.08% to a maximum of 1.74%, with an adjustment of 66bp due to investors' concerns that the Federal Reserve may underestimate inflation and tighten the currency early.</p><p>At that time, the adjustment of nominal interest rates also superimposed the rising effect of inflation expectations. Rising commodity prices (mainly oil and copper) caused 10-year breakeven inflation expectations to rise by 47bp from 2.09%.</p><p>However, after May, inflation expectations have fallen ahead of commodity prices, so even if the follow-up US Treasury yields goes up again,<b>The rebound may also be smaller than in February this year</b>。</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 5: U.S. bond interest rates rose rapidly in February this year amid tightening fears and inflation expectations</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af4c49cf45a045194fdab73cafc63018\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>Taper's impact on U.S. debt will react in advance after the Fed releases its signal.</b></p><p>Referring to the situation in 2013, taper can be divided into three steps: release of the signal, official opening, and reduction end (QE exit). After the Fed releases the signal, at the same time, it may be superimposed with the increase of the U.S. debt ceiling, and interest rates will rebound at one time. However, before and after the official opening, interest rates will fall back again as fundamentals weaken. Therefore, taper is only the second derivative inflection point of liquidity, not the influence of trend. Interest rate pressure outside Taper comes from fiscal policies, such as the rising demand for bond issuance in the third quarter and the passage of a scaled-back version of the bipartisan infrastructure agreement.</p><p><b>Taper affects the risk sentiment of U.S. stocks in the short term, but the biggest impact on U.S. stocks is the change in earnings.</b></p><p>In the first half of the year, the earnings forecast of U.S. stocks has been continuously raised, and the EPS in the second quarter of March-May has been revised up by 5.8%. In the second half of the year, the profits of upstream energy, transportation, commercial services and other sectors affected by the epidemic still have room for repair. Information technology, medical and other industries have sufficient cash in hand, and the repurchase efforts are expected to increase, maintaining a moderate increase in EPS. on account of<b>There is little upward pressure on U.S. debt, and the performance of listed companies is still being realized. We believe that U.S. stocks will remain high and volatile in the short term.</b></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 6: Upward revision of EPS since 2016</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dff15e9fa74467e860335ca0727ee2f\" tg-width=\"425\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: factset, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><b>The medium-term risk of U.S. stocks comes from the fact that the previous fastest recovery in history may evolve into the fastest recovery to end in history</b>The \"withdrawal reaction\" after the expiration of fiscal stimulus has a negative impact on optimistic earnings expectations. (See \"The Fastest Recovery in History, and Probably the Fastest Recovery to End\" for details)</p><p>From the release of Taper expectations to the official opening, emerging markets and commodities will still face certain shocks; Then, considering that global demand peaked and fell,<b>Commodity prices have pulled back, inflation expectations continue to fall, growth stocks are expected to make excess returns, and gold continues to fluctuate</b>。</p><p><table><tbody><tr><td>Figure 7: Cumulative yields of GEM, CSI 300, Nasdaq and Dow Jones from 2013 to 2014</p><p></td></tr><tr><td><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5996fae5597bb6b5d60cbee85e46f418\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>Source: Bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research</p><p></td></tr></tbody></table><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b95b69c3867aa3469a9cc950d027049d\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78a1a412540a2fcf75ff95ca71fb7699\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"30\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/W0pf7rmNYqd2xmxtoEWQ6w\">天风宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/W0pf7rmNYqd2xmxtoEWQ6w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168100836","content_text":"上一次美联储缩减QE发生在2013年。\n当年5月，伯南克在国会听证会上表示联储可能即将开始缩减QE，但直到当年12月的议息会议才正式决定开启缩减。之后美联储的资产购买规模逐步下降，到2014年10月正式退出了QE。再之后联储资产负债表规模基本维持不变，直至2017年10月开启了缩表。\n\n\n\n图1：美联储资产负债表变化\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n2013年5月伯南克第一次沟通QE taper时，市场曾出现了“缩减恐慌”（taper tantrum）。\n原因是市场误判了联储的货币政策态度，以为联储将在当年9月开启taper并很快加息。结果是2年期和10年期美债利率大幅反弹，4个月内分别上行了30bp和130bp，其间由于就业数据低于预期，利率曾两度回落。当年12月经济数据企稳回升后，美联储才正式开启了QE taper，短端和长端利率在taper落地前再度回升，随后长端利率在经济、通胀回落的情况下持续下行。\n\n\n\n图2：美债10年期收益率（%） vs 美债2年期收益率（%）\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：WIND，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n2013年的taper tantrum曾造成全球资产价格大幅波动。\n美股一度回撤，但得益于经济回升，重回上行趋势。严重依赖海外资本的新兴市场遭遇资金撤出，新兴市场权益资产在taper talk后的一个月内跌超10%，新兴市场货币相对美元贬值4.9%。利率反弹后，Comex铜价在一个月内下跌6.7%，金价下跌14.5%，但油价在供需紧张的情况下上涨5%。\n\n\n\n图3：MSCI EM指数及标普500指数\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n这次QE taper会重现2013年的缩减恐慌吗？\n我们认为影响应该不会太大，不仅比13年的“缩减恐慌”要弱，可能也比今年2月的“紧缩担忧”要弱。\n市场对这次taper预期较为充分。\n从年初（1月25日）美联储会议纪要中提到“逐渐减少债券购买”（taper）开始，预期就一直在发酵。根据彭博调查，78%的受访经济学家预期联储将会在今年底之前正式宣布实施taper，其中33%预期9月底就会正式宣布，可以看到市场对taper已有较为充分预期。\n这一次美联储吸取以往经验，明确表示在正式宣布政策变化前将提前给出提示，给市场消化预期的时间。因此即便美联储开始沟通退出QE，市场也不会像2013年因为误判加息而带来恐慌。\n参照2013年的经验，美联储可能在就业恢复到75%附近时释放缩减QE信号，同时考虑圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard认为75%疫苗接种率是缩减购债计划的必要条件，美联储最早可能在今年8月的Jackson Hole会议或者9月的议息会议上就缩减QE计划给出暗示，并最快在今年4季度开始缩减QE。\n\n\n\n图4：经济学家对缩减计划的时间预测大部分落在今年底之前\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n早在今年2月，市场已经提前预演过由货币紧缩担忧带来的调整。\n受到通胀预期抬升，当时由于投资者担忧美联储可能低估通胀而提前收紧货币，利率从1.08%最高上行至1.74%，调整幅度达到66bp。\n当时名义利率的调整还叠加了通胀预期的抬升作用，大宗商品价格上涨（主要是油和铜）导致10年期盈亏平衡通胀预期从2.09%上行了47bp。\n但是5月后通胀预期已经提前于大宗商品价格拐头回落，因此后续美债利率即使再次上行，反弹幅度可能也小于今年2月。\n\n\n\n图5：今年2月美债利率在紧缩担忧和通胀预期的叠加下快速上升\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\nTaper对美债的影响会在联储释放信号后提前反应。\n参考2013年的情况，taper可分成三步：释放信号，正式开启，缩减结束（QE退出）。美联储释放信号后，同时可能叠加美国债务上限提高，利率会出现一次性反弹。但在正式开启前后，利率将会随着基本面转弱而再次回落。因此taper只是流动性的二阶导拐点，不是趋势性的影响。Taper以外的利率压力来自于财政政策，比如三季度发债需求上升和缩减版的两党基建协议通过。\nTaper短期影响美股的风险情绪，但对美股影响最大的还是盈利变化。\n上半年美股盈利预期不断上调，3月-5月2季度EPS上修5.8%。下半年 上游能源、交运、商业服务等受疫情影响的板块盈利仍有修复空间，信息科技、医疗等行业在手现金充足，回购力度有望加大，维持EPS温和上涨。由于美债上行压力不大，上市公司业绩还在兑现，我们认为美股短期仍将维持高位震荡。\n\n\n\n图6：2016年以来EPS上修幅度\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：factset，天风证券研究所\n\n\n\n美股的中期风险来自于前期历史最快的复苏可能演变成历史最快结束的复苏，财政刺激到期后的“戒断反应”对乐观的盈利预期产生负面冲击。（详见《历史最快的复苏，可能也是最快结束的复苏》）\nTaper从释放预期到正式开启之前，新兴市场和大宗商品仍将面临一定冲击；之后考虑到全球需求见顶回落，大宗商品价格有所回调，通胀预期持续回落，成长股有望获得超额收益，黄金则延续震荡。\n\n\n\n图7：2013年-2014年，创业板、沪深300、纳斯达克、道琼斯累计收益率\n\n\n\n\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，天风证券研究\n\n\n\n\n风险提示","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803533194,"gmtCreate":1627446723818,"gmtModify":1703490145674,"author":{"id":"3565347485988843","authorId":"3565347485988843","name":"沃伦邹菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450aba14f5c3dc0f3de122a54e229dd0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565347485988843","idStr":"3565347485988843"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803533194","repostId":"2153193628","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809950716,"gmtCreate":1627345116035,"gmtModify":1703487931909,"author":{"id":"3565347485988843","authorId":"3565347485988843","name":"沃伦邹菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450aba14f5c3dc0f3de122a54e229dd0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565347485988843","idStr":"3565347485988843"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809950716","repostId":"2154684559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2154684559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627345000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2154684559?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 08:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Antitrust Upgrade! The European Union is eyeing two more Google services and asking for rectification within 2 months","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154684559","media":"新浪科技","summary":"法国对谷歌开出2.2亿欧元罚单新浪科技讯 北京时间7月26日晚间消息，据报道，欧盟委员会和欧盟消费者当局今日表示，谷歌要在两2个月的时间内，对其航班和酒店搜索服务进行调整，并解释如何对搜索结果进行排名，否则将面临制裁。长期以来，谷歌一直面临世界各地反垄断执法者和消费者团体的审查。之前，谷歌已经有三项服务遭到欧盟的发垄断罚款，罚金高达数十亿美元。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b5818c36470cf9336d8469538d317a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Three enterprises complained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>！ France issued a 220 million euro fine against Google</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557b605849471e852d88d2600232a3ed\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>On the evening of July 26th, Beijing time, it is reported that the European Commission and the EU consumer authorities said today that Google will adjust its flight and hotel search services within two or two months, and explain how to rank the search results, otherwise it will face sanctions.</p><p>Google has long faced scrutiny from antitrust enforcers and consumer groups around the world. Previously, three Google services have been fined by the European Union for monopoly, with fines of billions of dollars. The latest grievances focus on the prices of Google Flights and Google Hotels services.</p><p>Today, the European Commission and the EU consumer authority said in a joint statement that the final price of these products should include fees or taxes that can be calculated in advance, and the reference price used to calculate promotional discounts should be clearly identifiable.</p><p>EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders said: \"EU consumers cannot be misled when it comes to using search engines to plan their holidays. We need to empower consumers to make choices based on transparent and impartial information.\"</p><p>The aforementioned body also asked Google to modify the standard terms of the Google Store, Google's app Store, because some cases have shown that dealers have more rights than consumers. If Google's recommendations for rectification are inadequate, the above-mentioned agencies will discuss the issue further with Google and may impose sanctions.</p><p>In response, Google said in a statement: \"We welcome this dialogue and are working closely with consumer protection agencies and the European Commission to see how we can make user-friendly improvements and provide greater transparency.\"</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Antitrust Upgrade! The European Union is eyeing two more Google services and asking for rectification within 2 months</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAntitrust Upgrade! The European Union is eyeing two more Google services and asking for rectification within 2 months\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b5818c36470cf9336d8469538d317a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Three enterprises complained<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>！ France issued a 220 million euro fine against Google</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557b605849471e852d88d2600232a3ed\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">SINA</a>On the evening of July 26th, Beijing time, it is reported that the European Commission and the EU consumer authorities said today that Google will adjust its flight and hotel search services within two or two months, and explain how to rank the search results, otherwise it will face sanctions.</p><p>Google has long faced scrutiny from antitrust enforcers and consumer groups around the world. Previously, three Google services have been fined by the European Union for monopoly, with fines of billions of dollars. The latest grievances focus on the prices of Google Flights and Google Hotels services.</p><p>Today, the European Commission and the EU consumer authority said in a joint statement that the final price of these products should include fees or taxes that can be calculated in advance, and the reference price used to calculate promotional discounts should be clearly identifiable.</p><p>EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders said: \"EU consumers cannot be misled when it comes to using search engines to plan their holidays. We need to empower consumers to make choices based on transparent and impartial information.\"</p><p>The aforementioned body also asked Google to modify the standard terms of the Google Store, Google's app Store, because some cases have shown that dealers have more rights than consumers. If Google's recommendations for rectification are inadequate, the above-mentioned agencies will discuss the issue further with Google and may impose sanctions.</p><p>In response, Google said in a statement: \"We welcome this dialogue and are working closely with consumer protection agencies and the European Commission to see how we can make user-friendly improvements and provide greater transparency.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-07-26/doc-ikqciyzk7783660.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/557b605849471e852d88d2600232a3ed","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","GOOG":"谷歌","09086":"华夏纳指-U","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-07-26/doc-ikqciyzk7783660.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154684559","content_text":"三家企业投诉谷歌！法国对谷歌开出2.2亿欧元罚单\n\n新浪科技讯 北京时间7月26日晚间消息，据报道，欧盟委员会和欧盟消费者当局今日表示，谷歌要在两2个月的时间内，对其航班和酒店搜索服务进行调整，并解释如何对搜索结果进行排名，否则将面临制裁。\n长期以来，谷歌一直面临世界各地反垄断执法者和消费者团体的审查。之前，谷歌已经有三项服务遭到欧盟的发垄断罚款，罚金高达数十亿美元。而最新的不满集中在Google Flights（航班搜索）和Google Hotels（酒店搜索）两项服务的价格上。\n今日，欧盟委员会和欧盟消费者当局在一份联合声明中称，这些产品的最终价格应该包括可以提前计算的费用或税金，而用于计算促销折扣的参考价格应该是明确可识别的。\n欧盟司法专员迪迪埃·雷恩德斯（Didier Reynders）称：“在使用搜索引擎筹划假期时，欧盟消费者不能被误导。我们需要赋予消费者权力，让他们基于透明和公正的信息做出选择。”\n上述机构还要求谷歌修改谷歌应用商店Google Store的标准条款，因为一些案例表明，交易商比消费者拥有更多的权利。如果谷歌的整改建议不够充分，上述机构将与谷歌进一步讨论这一问题，并可能实施制裁。\n对此，谷歌在一份声明中表示：“我们欢迎这次对话，并正与消费者保护机构和欧盟委员会密切合作，看看我们如何能做出有利于用户的改进，并提供更高的透明度。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"03086":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"09086":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152125358,"gmtCreate":1625277171774,"gmtModify":1703739785122,"author":{"id":"3565347485988843","authorId":"3565347485988843","name":"沃伦邹菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450aba14f5c3dc0f3de122a54e229dd0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565347485988843","idStr":"3565347485988843"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152125358","repostId":"2148873739","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}