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- AwesomebycAwesomebyc
  ·2021-06-21
  1
  The first stock of new tea drinks, how much is Nayuki's tea worth?
  奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股1
  The first stock of new tea drinks, how much is Nayuki's tea worth?
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- AwesomebycAwesomebyc
  ·2021-06-20
  1
  A surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?
  港股科技股市值近10年来呈井喷之势，恒生资讯科技业指数市值由10年前（2011年6月）不足1万亿元，10年间暴增1800%至超17万亿元，并一举超过恒生金融业指数15.73万亿元的市值的市值，雄踞港股
  A surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?
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- AwesomebycAwesomebyc
  ·2021-06-17
  abcdefghijk
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- AwesomebycAwesomebyc
  ·2021-06-16
  12345678999
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- AwesomebycAwesomebyc
  ·2021-06-15
  1
  Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly
  本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策
  Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly
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- AwesomebycAwesomebyc
  ·2021-06-14
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- AwesomebycAwesomebyc
  ·2021-06-09
  4455667788
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- AwesomebycAwesomebyc
  ·2021-06-07
  12334455667788
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- AwesomebycAwesomebyc
  ·2021-06-06
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  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- AwesomebycAwesomebyc
  ·2021-06-03
  778899445566
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10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The first stock of new tea drinks, how much is Nayuki's tea worth?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144706272","media":"格隆汇","summary":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股1","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">Nayuki's tea</a>The announcement stated that the company will issue an IPO from June 18 to June 23, 2021, and plans to sell 257 million shares globally, of which the Hong Kong public offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and a 15% over-allotment option is attached. Admission fee is HK $9999.8. The offering price is HK $17.2-HK $19.8 per share, and Nayuki's Tea is expected to receive net proceeds from the global offering of HK $4.842 billion.</p><p>As the first stock of new tea drinks, the capital market's pursuit of Nayuki is foreseeable. However, in addition to the fever, we still roughly estimate how much Nayuki's tea should be worth, so as to have an anchor in market fluctuations.</p><p>There are three main factors that affect the company's valuation, one is growth, the other is industry structure, and the other is the company's competitiveness. The former is related to how fast a company can become bigger. The faster it grows, the higher the valuation will naturally be. The latter two are related to sustainability. Let's discuss Nayuki in these three points.</p><p>Let's talk about growth first. Growth can be divided into two points. One is the growth of the industry, and the other is the growth of the company itself. The former will help the latter.</p><p>Naixue's field is freshly made tea drinks, which can be divided into high-end (average price above 20 yuan), mid-end (average price 10-20 yuan), and low-end (average price below 10 yuan) according to the price band.</p><p>In China's tea market, judging from the situation in the past five years, the fastest growth rate is freshly made tea.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2203f56643659e4dc9b78c44ffb7ac4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Among freshly-made tea drinks, the best growth is high-end freshly-made tea drinks. The compound annual growth rate from 2015 to 2020 is as high as 75.8%, and the industry scale has reached 12.9 billion yuan. This growth is in line with our cognition, because we have witnessed the popularity of Naixue in recent years. According to the report of Zhuochi Consulting, high-end tea drinks will continue to grow at a high rate from 2020 to 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e476f153c978a28e57f09dc34393753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this way, Naixue is on a high-growth track. What about Nayuki's own growth?</p><p>In 2015, Naixue opened its first store in Shenzhen. By the end of 2020, the number of Naixue tea stores reached 491, and as of the last executable date of the prospectus, it reached 562. The number of Nayuki tea stores at the end of 2018 and 2019 was 155 and 327 respectively.</p><p>When a store is invested, it is not only a demand flow point, but also a production capacity point. Therefore, with the expansion of the store network, Nayuki's revenue has skyrocketed. From 2018 to 2020, the revenue of all Nayuki's tea stores will be 909 million, 2.291 billion, and 2.871 billion respectively. The year-on-year growth rates in 2019 and 2020 will be 152% respectively.% and 25%.</p><p>The future growth of Nayuki's tea mainly depends on the continuous expansion of stores. Where may the ceiling of the number of stores be?</p><p>A way we can look at<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>, Starbucks has 5,000 stores in China. The positioning of Nayuki's tea products is somewhat similar to Starbucks, so we can also say that Nayuki's tea potential space can be 5,000.</p><p>From the current point of view, Nayuki's tea has settled in more than 70 [1] cities, of which Shenzhen has the largest number of stores, with 91 stores, and the other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, have 22, 33, and 24 stores respectively. These cities are similar in size to Shenzhen, and consumers have strong demand for high-end freshly made tea drinks. In Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the penetration rate of Nayuki's tea in other cities is even lower, and it is still blank in many cities (Starbucks has settled in 230 cities in China, China has 4 municipalities directly under the Central Government, and 293 prefecture-level cities). From this perspective, Nayuki's tea store space can be 5,000 or even higher.</p><p>From another perspective, Naixue generally likes to open in bustling business districts. There are 476 domestic first-tier cities, 1,431 second-tier cities, and 2,020 third-tier and below business districts, totaling 3,927. From this perspective, Nayuki's tea shop space can be thousands.</p><p>So in terms of growth, Nayuki is good.</p><p>But growth is just an assumption, and the reality is not a vacuum environment. Nayuki's tea family comes alone. We turn to the industry structure and Naixue's competitiveness.</p><p>In terms of industry structure, the current market concentration of high-end ready-made tea drinks is relatively high. According to data from China Insights Consulting, the high-end ready-made tea brand CR5 has a market share of 55%, of which Naixue has a market share of 18.9%, which is significantly higher than other competing products.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c30f2650848765e8547636aebd90d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">After several years of development in this industry, the market share advantage of leading brands is now very obvious.</p><p>Where are the competitive barriers for high-end tea drinks?</p><p>Personally, it can be divided into three points, one is supply chain management, the other is standardized output, and the third is brand power.</p><p>Let's talk about supply chain management first. High-end freshly made tea drinks, the raw materials used include high-quality tea, fresh milk, fresh seasonal fruits, etc. For example, high-quality tea and fresh milk are fine, they have been relatively industrialized, and storage and transportation are relatively convenient, but for fresh fruits, the supply chain is much more complicated. How to ensure product quality and how to ensure storage to reduce losses are all troublesome. Taking Naixue as an example, the cost of materials accounts for about 34% of the revenue of ready-made tea drinks, of which 76% are raw materials, and the rest are packaging materials.</p><p>It can be seen that fluctuations in raw material costs have a significant impact on the profit side. In terms of product form, high-end freshly-made tea drinks do not have many entry barriers, but it is difficult to control the supply chain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe74e2114383895b2b909fa93985900\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Naixue can reach this share, and its management and control in the supply chain should be ahead of its peers.</p><p>Supply chain control will also affect the second competitiveness, standardized output. But in addition to the supply chain, there are other difficulties in the standardized output of high-end tea drinks.</p><p>The coffee making process is simple and can be completed by a single person. High-end tea drinks are relatively complicated. Although the production process has a clear division of labor, it requires the participation of many people, and the processing of fresh fruits is relatively complicated. Nayuki also has on-site baking, and the process is also complicated, so the store is equipped with a large number of people.</p><p>The average staffing of Nayuki's standard stores is 21 people. In October 2020, it will focus on promoting PRO stores that remove freshly made baking, with an average staffing of about 13 people.</p><p>With many people and complex processes, training and management are difficult, which increases the difficulty of standardized output, but at the same time it also constitutes a barrier to competition.</p><p>This is also one of the reasons why domestic high-end freshly made tea drinks are basically sold directly. The supply chain is complicated, the process is complicated, and it is easy to mess around due to the liberalization of franchises, driven by huge interests.</p><p>The third point is brand power. In fact, I personally think this is important, but it is not that important. In today's society, brand power is of course important, but it doesn't seem too difficult to build an online celebrity brand. Brand power can be icing on the cake, but the core is that the first two internal forces must be hard.</p><p>Naixue has now become the leader in the industry, and these three points of competitiveness should be passed.</p><p>One thing investors may be worried about is Naixue's operating costs. Dismantling the cost, a notable feature of Naixue, Starbucks in the early days, and catering companies in Hong Kong stocks today is the high rental cost. Naixue's rental cost is 15 points, Starbucks' early stage is more than 4 points, and in Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>More than 8 points,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">Jiu Mao Jiu</a>Around 10 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3e1932cef8f2b1d56c37f72ac2576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is mainly related to Naixue opening a large store in a bustling business district. However, the company's store-level profitability is not bad, with an operating profit margin of 16.3% in 2019 and 12.2% in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8c1faadb01599e49de8f9363252ec8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As long as the store level is profitable, as the scale expands, more headquarters expenses can be amortized, thereby improving profitability. In addition, Naixue's operating costs will continue to decline in the future. This is due to the supply chain advantages of expanded scale, and the other is the rent bargaining power of improved brand power. In addition, expanding to lower-tier cities will also reduce rental costs, because the rental costs in lower-tier cities are relatively lower.</p><p>So how should Naixue value it?</p><p>From the above analysis, we can know that Naixue's business model and growth are close to those of Starbucks in the early days, and Taier, which is currently owned by Hong Kong stock Jiumaojiu. Let's compare the early Starbucks and the current valuation of restaurant stocks in Hong Kong.</p><p>Starbucks went public in June 1992. At the beginning of its listing, its market value was about US $14 million, its dynamic PE was about 53 times, and its price-to-sales ratio was 2.2 times. The number of stores that year was 165. Due to the very good growth, the valuation in 1992 and 1993 was basically maintained at around 80 times, with the highest reaching over 100 times, and the price-to-sales ratio was about 4 times to 6 times.</p><p>Hong Kong's Haidilao and Jiumaojiu, the current market value corresponds to the net profit valuation of hundreds of times in 2020, respectively. Of course, this is related to the relatively large damage to the profit side of catering companies in 2020. According to the estimated profit of securities firms in 2021, They are 35 times and 70 times respectively. If we look at the net profit in 2019, they are 73 times and 216 times respectively. Looking at the price-to-sales ratio, it corresponds to 2020, which is 6 times and 13 times respectively, and the consensus expectation of securities firms for 2021 is 3.13 times and 6.8 times respectively.</p><p>Compared with Starbucks back then, Hong Kong's valuation of Haidilao and Jiumaojiu is quite exaggerated.</p><p>Naixue is still in a period of rapid growth, and we use PS for valuation. If estimated according to the standards of Starbucks' listing that year, Naixue's total revenue in 2020 will be 3 billion, and based on 4-6 times PS, it will be between 12 billion and 18 billion.</p><p>Of course, as we said, the valuation of Starbucks in 1992 was obviously very conservative. Compared with the huge increase later, investors who got it with this valuation were really happy. Haidilao already has a large number of stores, and in this period of rapid growth, it will be more appropriate to use Jiumaojiu. Naixue is close to Taier's logic.</p><p>Because half of 2021 is now over, it may be more appropriate to use the forecast revenue estimate in 2021. Jiumaojiu is 6.8 times, and Naixue's estimated revenue in 2021 is 5.5-5.8 billion. If you give 6-7 times PS, it will be between 44 billion and 46 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>Based on the offering price, Naixue is now 29.5-34 billion Hong Kong dollars, and there is still a lot of room.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The first stock of new tea drinks, how much is Nayuki's tea worth?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe first stock of new tea drinks, how much is Nayuki's tea worth?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">Nayuki's tea</a>The announcement stated that the company will issue an IPO from June 18 to June 23, 2021, and plans to sell 257 million shares globally, of which the Hong Kong public offering accounts for 10%, the international offering accounts for 90%, and a 15% over-allotment option is attached. Admission fee is HK $9999.8. The offering price is HK $17.2-HK $19.8 per share, and Nayuki's Tea is expected to receive net proceeds from the global offering of HK $4.842 billion.</p><p>As the first stock of new tea drinks, the capital market's pursuit of Nayuki is foreseeable. However, in addition to the fever, we still roughly estimate how much Nayuki's tea should be worth, so as to have an anchor in market fluctuations.</p><p>There are three main factors that affect the company's valuation, one is growth, the other is industry structure, and the other is the company's competitiveness. The former is related to how fast a company can become bigger. The faster it grows, the higher the valuation will naturally be. The latter two are related to sustainability. Let's discuss Nayuki in these three points.</p><p>Let's talk about growth first. Growth can be divided into two points. One is the growth of the industry, and the other is the growth of the company itself. The former will help the latter.</p><p>Naixue's field is freshly made tea drinks, which can be divided into high-end (average price above 20 yuan), mid-end (average price 10-20 yuan), and low-end (average price below 10 yuan) according to the price band.</p><p>In China's tea market, judging from the situation in the past five years, the fastest growth rate is freshly made tea.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2203f56643659e4dc9b78c44ffb7ac4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Among freshly-made tea drinks, the best growth is high-end freshly-made tea drinks. The compound annual growth rate from 2015 to 2020 is as high as 75.8%, and the industry scale has reached 12.9 billion yuan. This growth is in line with our cognition, because we have witnessed the popularity of Naixue in recent years. According to the report of Zhuochi Consulting, high-end tea drinks will continue to grow at a high rate from 2020 to 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e476f153c978a28e57f09dc34393753\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this way, Naixue is on a high-growth track. What about Nayuki's own growth?</p><p>In 2015, Naixue opened its first store in Shenzhen. By the end of 2020, the number of Naixue tea stores reached 491, and as of the last executable date of the prospectus, it reached 562. The number of Nayuki tea stores at the end of 2018 and 2019 was 155 and 327 respectively.</p><p>When a store is invested, it is not only a demand flow point, but also a production capacity point. Therefore, with the expansion of the store network, Nayuki's revenue has skyrocketed. From 2018 to 2020, the revenue of all Nayuki's tea stores will be 909 million, 2.291 billion, and 2.871 billion respectively. The year-on-year growth rates in 2019 and 2020 will be 152% respectively.% and 25%.</p><p>The future growth of Nayuki's tea mainly depends on the continuous expansion of stores. Where may the ceiling of the number of stores be?</p><p>A way we can look at<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>, Starbucks has 5,000 stores in China. The positioning of Nayuki's tea products is somewhat similar to Starbucks, so we can also say that Nayuki's tea potential space can be 5,000.</p><p>From the current point of view, Nayuki's tea has settled in more than 70 [1] cities, of which Shenzhen has the largest number of stores, with 91 stores, and the other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, have 22, 33, and 24 stores respectively. These cities are similar in size to Shenzhen, and consumers have strong demand for high-end freshly made tea drinks. In Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the penetration rate of Nayuki's tea in other cities is even lower, and it is still blank in many cities (Starbucks has settled in 230 cities in China, China has 4 municipalities directly under the Central Government, and 293 prefecture-level cities). From this perspective, Nayuki's tea store space can be 5,000 or even higher.</p><p>From another perspective, Naixue generally likes to open in bustling business districts. There are 476 domestic first-tier cities, 1,431 second-tier cities, and 2,020 third-tier and below business districts, totaling 3,927. From this perspective, Nayuki's tea shop space can be thousands.</p><p>So in terms of growth, Nayuki is good.</p><p>But growth is just an assumption, and the reality is not a vacuum environment. Nayuki's tea family comes alone. We turn to the industry structure and Naixue's competitiveness.</p><p>In terms of industry structure, the current market concentration of high-end ready-made tea drinks is relatively high. According to data from China Insights Consulting, the high-end ready-made tea brand CR5 has a market share of 55%, of which Naixue has a market share of 18.9%, which is significantly higher than other competing products.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c30f2650848765e8547636aebd90d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">After several years of development in this industry, the market share advantage of leading brands is now very obvious.</p><p>Where are the competitive barriers for high-end tea drinks?</p><p>Personally, it can be divided into three points, one is supply chain management, the other is standardized output, and the third is brand power.</p><p>Let's talk about supply chain management first. High-end freshly made tea drinks, the raw materials used include high-quality tea, fresh milk, fresh seasonal fruits, etc. For example, high-quality tea and fresh milk are fine, they have been relatively industrialized, and storage and transportation are relatively convenient, but for fresh fruits, the supply chain is much more complicated. How to ensure product quality and how to ensure storage to reduce losses are all troublesome. Taking Naixue as an example, the cost of materials accounts for about 34% of the revenue of ready-made tea drinks, of which 76% are raw materials, and the rest are packaging materials.</p><p>It can be seen that fluctuations in raw material costs have a significant impact on the profit side. In terms of product form, high-end freshly-made tea drinks do not have many entry barriers, but it is difficult to control the supply chain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe74e2114383895b2b909fa93985900\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Naixue can reach this share, and its management and control in the supply chain should be ahead of its peers.</p><p>Supply chain control will also affect the second competitiveness, standardized output. But in addition to the supply chain, there are other difficulties in the standardized output of high-end tea drinks.</p><p>The coffee making process is simple and can be completed by a single person. High-end tea drinks are relatively complicated. Although the production process has a clear division of labor, it requires the participation of many people, and the processing of fresh fruits is relatively complicated. Nayuki also has on-site baking, and the process is also complicated, so the store is equipped with a large number of people.</p><p>The average staffing of Nayuki's standard stores is 21 people. In October 2020, it will focus on promoting PRO stores that remove freshly made baking, with an average staffing of about 13 people.</p><p>With many people and complex processes, training and management are difficult, which increases the difficulty of standardized output, but at the same time it also constitutes a barrier to competition.</p><p>This is also one of the reasons why domestic high-end freshly made tea drinks are basically sold directly. The supply chain is complicated, the process is complicated, and it is easy to mess around due to the liberalization of franchises, driven by huge interests.</p><p>The third point is brand power. In fact, I personally think this is important, but it is not that important. In today's society, brand power is of course important, but it doesn't seem too difficult to build an online celebrity brand. Brand power can be icing on the cake, but the core is that the first two internal forces must be hard.</p><p>Naixue has now become the leader in the industry, and these three points of competitiveness should be passed.</p><p>One thing investors may be worried about is Naixue's operating costs. Dismantling the cost, a notable feature of Naixue, Starbucks in the early days, and catering companies in Hong Kong stocks today is the high rental cost. Naixue's rental cost is 15 points, Starbucks' early stage is more than 4 points, and in Hong Kong stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">Haidilao</a>More than 8 points,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">Jiu Mao Jiu</a>Around 10 points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3e1932cef8f2b1d56c37f72ac2576c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is mainly related to Naixue opening a large store in a bustling business district. However, the company's store-level profitability is not bad, with an operating profit margin of 16.3% in 2019 and 12.2% in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8c1faadb01599e49de8f9363252ec8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As long as the store level is profitable, as the scale expands, more headquarters expenses can be amortized, thereby improving profitability. In addition, Naixue's operating costs will continue to decline in the future. This is due to the supply chain advantages of expanded scale, and the other is the rent bargaining power of improved brand power. In addition, expanding to lower-tier cities will also reduce rental costs, because the rental costs in lower-tier cities are relatively lower.</p><p>So how should Naixue value it?</p><p>From the above analysis, we can know that Naixue's business model and growth are close to those of Starbucks in the early days, and Taier, which is currently owned by Hong Kong stock Jiumaojiu. Let's compare the early Starbucks and the current valuation of restaurant stocks in Hong Kong.</p><p>Starbucks went public in June 1992. At the beginning of its listing, its market value was about US $14 million, its dynamic PE was about 53 times, and its price-to-sales ratio was 2.2 times. The number of stores that year was 165. Due to the very good growth, the valuation in 1992 and 1993 was basically maintained at around 80 times, with the highest reaching over 100 times, and the price-to-sales ratio was about 4 times to 6 times.</p><p>Hong Kong's Haidilao and Jiumaojiu, the current market value corresponds to the net profit valuation of hundreds of times in 2020, respectively. Of course, this is related to the relatively large damage to the profit side of catering companies in 2020. According to the estimated profit of securities firms in 2021, They are 35 times and 70 times respectively. If we look at the net profit in 2019, they are 73 times and 216 times respectively. Looking at the price-to-sales ratio, it corresponds to 2020, which is 6 times and 13 times respectively, and the consensus expectation of securities firms for 2021 is 3.13 times and 6.8 times respectively.</p><p>Compared with Starbucks back then, Hong Kong's valuation of Haidilao and Jiumaojiu is quite exaggerated.</p><p>Naixue is still in a period of rapid growth, and we use PS for valuation. If estimated according to the standards of Starbucks' listing that year, Naixue's total revenue in 2020 will be 3 billion, and based on 4-6 times PS, it will be between 12 billion and 18 billion.</p><p>Of course, as we said, the valuation of Starbucks in 1992 was obviously very conservative. Compared with the huge increase later, investors who got it with this valuation were really happy. Haidilao already has a large number of stores, and in this period of rapid growth, it will be more appropriate to use Jiumaojiu. Naixue is close to Taier's logic.</p><p>Because half of 2021 is now over, it may be more appropriate to use the forecast revenue estimate in 2021. Jiumaojiu is 6.8 times, and Naixue's estimated revenue in 2021 is 5.5-5.8 billion. If you give 6-7 times PS, it will be between 44 billion and 46 billion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p>Based on the offering price, Naixue is now 29.5-34 billion Hong Kong dollars, and there is still a lot of room.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f17df5f6c218834b209936ec178db28","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OvCmuObBOPdLw6h6liTN2Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2144706272","content_text":"奈雪的茶发布公告称，公司于2021年6月18日至6月23日期间招股，拟全球发售2.57亿股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国际发售占90%，另附15%超额配股权。入场费9999.8港元。本次发售价为每股17.2港元-19.8港元，奈雪的茶预计将取得的全球发售所得款项净额为48.42亿港元。\n作为新式茶饮第一股，资本市场对奈雪的追捧可以预见，不过发热之余，我们还是大概估下奈雪的茶应该值多少钱，也好在市场的波动中有个锚。\n影响公司估值的主要有三个方面的因素，一个是成长性，一个是行业格局，一个是公司的竞争力。前者关乎公司能以多快的速度变多大，越快成长自然给的估值越高，后面两个关乎可持续性。我们分这三点来讨论奈雪。\n先说成长性，成长性又可以分两点，一点是行业成长性，一点是公司自身的成长性，前者会为后者助力。\n奈雪所在的领域为现制茶饮，按价格带可以划分为高端(平均价格20以上)，中端(平均价格10-20)，低端(平均价格10元以下)，奈雪处在高端价格带。\n在中国茶饮市场，从过去5年的情况看，增长速度最快的是现制茶饮。而在现制茶饮里，增长最好的又是高端现制茶饮。2015年-2020年的年复合增长速度高达75.8%，行业规模达到了129亿人民币。这个成长符合我们的认知，因为这几年我们见证了奈雪的火爆。根据灼炽咨询的报告，2020年-2025年高端茶饮将继续延续高成长，年复合增速达32.2%。这样来讲，奈雪是踏在了一条高成长的赛道上。那奈雪自身的成长性呢？\n2015年奈雪在深圳开了第一间门店，到2020年底，奈雪的茶门店数量达491间，截至到招股书最后可执行日期达562间。2018年和2019年底的奈雪的茶门店数目则分别是155间和327间。\n一个店投下去，既是需求流量点，也是产能点。所以凭借门店网络的扩张，奈雪的营收扶摇直上，2018年-2020年所有奈雪的茶门店营收分别是9.09亿，22.91亿，28.71亿，2019年和2020年的同比增速分别是152%和25%。\n奈雪的茶未来成长性主要取决于门店的持续扩张，那门店数量的天花板可能在哪？\n一种我们可以看星巴克，星巴克在中国有5000家门店。奈雪的茶产品定位与星巴克有些类似，这样我们也可以说奈雪的茶潜在空间可以在5000家。\n从当前看，奈雪的茶一共入驻了70多[1] 个城市，其中深圳门店最多，91家，另外三家一线城市北京、上海、广州分别有22家、33家和24家。这些城市规模与深圳相似，消费者有对高端现制茶饮的强劲需求。在北上广如此，奈雪的茶在其他城市的渗透率就更低，在许多城市还是空白(星巴克入驻了中国230个城市，中国有4个直辖市，293个地级市)。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶开店空间是可以在5000家，甚至更高。\n从另一个角度看，奈雪一般喜欢开在繁华的商圈，这样的商圈，国内一线城市有476个，二线1431个，三线及以下2020个，共计3927个。从这个角度看，奈雪的茶门店空间是可以在在数千家。\n所以就成长性看，奈雪是不错的。\n但成长性只是一种设想，现实并非是真空环境，由奈雪的茶一家独来。我们转向看行业格局以及奈雪的竞争力。\n行业格局上，目前高端现制茶饮市场集中度相对较高。根据灼识咨询数据，高端现制茶饮品牌CR5市占率高达55%，其中奈雪的市占率为18.9%，显著高于其它竞品。这个行业经过几年的发展，现在头部品牌的市场份额优势非常明显。\n那高端茶饮的竞争壁垒在哪？\n个人来看，可以分三点，一是供应链管理，二是标准化输出，三是品牌力。\n先讲供应链管理。高端现制茶饮，用的原材料包括上乘茶叶、鲜奶、新鲜时令水果等。像上乘茶叶、鲜奶还好，已经比较工业化生产了，同时储存和运输相对方便，但新鲜水果上，供应链就要复杂得多。怎么保证产品质量，怎么保证储存减少损耗，都是麻烦。以奈雪为例，材料成本占现制茶饮营收比例为34%左右，其中76%是原材料，剩下是包装材料。\n这可以看到，原材料成本的波动对利润端的影响很显著。高端现制茶饮就产品形态来说，并没有多少进入门槛，但难在供应链管控上。奈雪能走到这个份额地步，在供应链上的管控应该是领先于同行的。\n供应链的管控也会影响到第二个竞争力，标准化输出。但除了供应链外，高端茶饮的标准化输出还有其它难点。\n咖啡的制作流程简单，单人操作就可以完成了。而高端茶饮相对要复杂，尽管制作流程分工明确，但需要多人参与，并且新鲜水果处理相对要复杂。奈雪还有现场烘焙，流程也复杂，所以门店配置的人员多。\n奈雪的标准门店平均人员配置是21人，2020年10月开始主推去掉现制烘焙的PRO店，平均人员配置大概13人。\n人多，流程复杂，培训和管理难度就大，这就增加了标准化输出的难度，但同时也构成了竞争壁垒。\n这也是国内高端现制茶饮基本走直营的原因之一。供应链复杂，流程复杂，放开加盟，巨大的利益驱使，容易乱来。\n第三点就是品牌力，其实我个人觉得这点重要，但也不是那么重要。现在这个社会，品牌力当然重要，但打造一个网红品牌似乎也不是太难。品牌力可以锦上添花，但核心还是前面两个内力要硬。\n奈雪现在做到了行业龙头，这三点竞争力应该是过关的。\n有一点投资者可能比较担心，就是奈雪的运营成本。把成本拆解一下，奈雪跟早期星巴克，跟现在港股的餐饮企业，一个显著的特点是租金成本高。奈雪的租金成本15个点，星巴克早期4个多点，港股里的海底捞8个多点，九毛九10个点左右。这主要跟奈雪开大店，开在繁华商圈有关。不过，公司门店层面的盈利能力是还不错的，经营利润率2019年有16.3%，2020年受疫情影响也有12.2%。只要门店层面是盈利的，随着规模扩大，可以摊销更多的总部费用，从而提高盈利能力。另外，奈雪未来的运营成本也会继续下降，这一是来源于规模扩大的供应链优势，二是品牌力提升的租金议价能力。另外，向低线城市扩张也会降低租金成本，因为更低线城市的租金成本相对来说要低些。\n那奈雪到底该怎么给估值呢？\n从上面的分析可以知道，奈雪的商业模式和成长性接近早期的星巴克，当前港股九毛九旗下的太二。我们比较下早期的星巴克和当前香港的餐饮股估值。\n星巴克1992年6月上市，上市之初市值大概0.14亿美元，动态PE大概53倍，市销率2.2倍。当年门店数量165家，由于非常好的成长性，1992年和1993年估值基本维持在80倍上下，最高到过100倍，市销率大概在4倍到6倍之间。\n香港的海底捞和九毛九，当前的市值对应2020年的净利润估值分别是数百倍，当然这跟2020年餐饮企业利润端破坏比较大有关，按券商对2021年的预计利润看，分别是35倍和70倍。如果以2019年的净利润看，分别是73倍和216倍。看市销率的话，对应2020年，分别是6倍和13倍，对就券商的2021年一致预期，分别是3.13倍和6.8倍。\n相比当年的星巴克，香港给海底捞和九毛九的估值是比较夸张的。\n奈雪现在仍处于高速成长期，我们用PS进行估值。如果按星巴克当年上市的标准来估，2020年奈雪的总营收是30亿，按4倍-6倍的PS，大概是120亿-180亿之间。\n当然，我们说过了，1992年星巴克的估值明显给的非常保守，相比后面的巨大涨幅，用这个估值拿到的投资人真是太幸福。海底捞的门店数量已经很多，也这了快速成长期，用九毛九会更合适，奈雪接近太二的逻辑。\n因为现在2021年已经要过去一半，用2021年的预测营收估可能更合适。九毛九是6.8倍，奈雪2021年的预计营收是55-58亿，给6倍-7倍PS的话，大概是440亿-460亿港币之间。\n按招股价算，奈雪现在是295-340亿港币，还是有很大空间的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165603885,"gmtCreate":1624120962747,"gmtModify":1703829101012,"author":{"id":"3562144044247952","authorId":"3562144044247952","name":"Awesomebyc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d663d2fd5a97cc2d244c53bde469763","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562144044247952","authorIdStr":"3562144044247952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165603885","repostId":"2144702770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144702770","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624244088,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144702770?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"A surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144702770","media":"新浪财经综合","summary":"港股科技股市值近10年来呈井喷之势，恒生资讯科技业指数市值由10年前（2011年6月）不足1万亿元，10年间暴增1800%至超17万亿元，并一举超过恒生金融业指数15.73万亿元的市值的市值，雄踞港股","content":"<p>The market value of the Hong Kong technology stock market has shown a blowout trend in the past 10 years. The market value of the Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index has surged by 1,800% from less than 1 trillion yuan 10 years ago (June 2011) to over 17 trillion yuan in 10 years, surpassing the market value of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index of 15.73 trillion yuan in one fell swoop, ranking first in the market value of all industries in Hong Kong stocks!</p><p>The overall steady expansion of the Hong Kong stock market</p><p>Changes in the market value of the three major industry indexes of Hong Kong stocks in the past 10 years (see chart below).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da34a6fd16e9aaad4a45a0705a50187\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>At the same time, the total market value of the main board of Hong Kong stocks has increased from about 20 trillion Hong Kong dollars 10 years ago to over 50 trillion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623fb4d1a2b1422cabfb3a7f8c65af7c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The main reason for the increase in market value is the substantial expansion of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks. The number of listed companies has increased from 1,448 10 years ago to nearly 2,600 today. At the same time, the Hang Seng Index, which was once dominated by financial and real estate stocks, saw a relatively limited increase, only about 20% in ten years.</p><p>The number of companies listed on Hong Kong stocks is shown in the figure below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc6565025f2f3abf895088cfcf29da7\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the proportion of market value of various industry indexes, the proportion of Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index (accounting for the total market value of companies selected in the Hang Seng series of industry indexes) has exploded from 3% in June 2011 to the latest 25%!</p><p>The old economic sector is in the doldrums</p><p>The three weighted old economic sectors of finance, real estate, and energy obviously underperformed the market, and even energy is no longer a weighted sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/546bcd2e116e4cc22cdd0cf3edebf61d\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd31eaef02347d31d36a54b4594ed2a\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has increased from 11 trillion yuan 10 years ago to less than 16 trillion yuan latest. However, the proportion of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has dropped significantly, from 46% to 25%, which is the industry with the largest decline.</p><p>Hong Kong local heavyweights Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01972\">Swire Properties</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00017\">New World Development</a>The real estate index that gathered together also performed weakly, and the market value share dropped from 10% to 9%.</p><p>In addition, the downturn in oil prices in the past 10 years has also caused the market value of the Hang Seng Energy Industry Index to decline from 4.8 trillion yuan to 2.1 trillion yuan. In the past 10 years, it has not increased but halved, and the proportion of market value has dropped sharply from 18% to 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b27148417ef1d600426d51d4c161bda\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Choice of the Times and the Reform of HKEx</p><p>The past 10 years can be said to be the golden decade for Chinese technology companies. Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The two heroes have grown explosively, and their market value has increased to a behemoth of 5 trillion yuan. Meituan and Xiaomi were unknown ten years ago, but Meituan has become a technology leader with a market value of nearly 2 trillion yuan, and Xiaomi has also grown to a smart home ecological leader with a market value of 700 billion yuan.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>From years of losses to today's stable profits, the market value has reached trillions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>A little less coquettish, although not as good as the explosive growth of the first decade of this century, it is steady and steady to live up to the trust of the times.</p><p>The strong development of the short video industry in recent years has created Kuaishou,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Waiting for the rise of video leaders. In addition, according to media reports in April this year, ByteDance has submitted an underwriter's employment letter to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and started the listing process in Hong Kong, with a valuation of US $400 billion. ByteDance, a phenomenal blockbuster company, will land on the Hong Kong stock market in the near future, and there is still considerable room for growth in the value of the Hong Kong technology stock market in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3dfd73fe60381e50e44793dfc84464\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, the times have given rich dividends to technology stocks, and on the other hand, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has learned from the bitter experience and reformed itself.</p><p>Hong Kong Stock Exchange missed in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Later, at the end of 2017, it finally made its biggest change in more than 20 years-releasing the structure of different rights for the same shares and the listing of biological companies that have not yet been profitable.</p><p>It is no exaggeration to say that starting from 2018, it will be the beginning of a new era for Hong Kong stocks. A large number of technology leaders who have missed the Hong Kong stock market before have chosen secondary listing in Hong Kong, including Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, NetEase and other established technology leaders. It also allows upstarts Meituan, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, etc. to choose Hong Kong as the first listing location. Today's Hong Kong stock market is an indispensable market for investing in China's technology industry!</p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA surge of 18 times in 10 years! Did you miss out on the lucrative dividends of tech stocks?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经综合</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The market value of the Hong Kong technology stock market has shown a blowout trend in the past 10 years. The market value of the Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index has surged by 1,800% from less than 1 trillion yuan 10 years ago (June 2011) to over 17 trillion yuan in 10 years, surpassing the market value of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index of 15.73 trillion yuan in one fell swoop, ranking first in the market value of all industries in Hong Kong stocks!</p><p>The overall steady expansion of the Hong Kong stock market</p><p>Changes in the market value of the three major industry indexes of Hong Kong stocks in the past 10 years (see chart below).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da34a6fd16e9aaad4a45a0705a50187\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>At the same time, the total market value of the main board of Hong Kong stocks has increased from about 20 trillion Hong Kong dollars 10 years ago to over 50 trillion Hong Kong dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623fb4d1a2b1422cabfb3a7f8c65af7c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The main reason for the increase in market value is the substantial expansion of listed companies in Hong Kong stocks. The number of listed companies has increased from 1,448 10 years ago to nearly 2,600 today. At the same time, the Hang Seng Index, which was once dominated by financial and real estate stocks, saw a relatively limited increase, only about 20% in ten years.</p><p>The number of companies listed on Hong Kong stocks is shown in the figure below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc6565025f2f3abf895088cfcf29da7\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the proportion of market value of various industry indexes, the proportion of Hang Seng Information Technology Industry Index (accounting for the total market value of companies selected in the Hang Seng series of industry indexes) has exploded from 3% in June 2011 to the latest 25%!</p><p>The old economic sector is in the doldrums</p><p>The three weighted old economic sectors of finance, real estate, and energy obviously underperformed the market, and even energy is no longer a weighted sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/546bcd2e116e4cc22cdd0cf3edebf61d\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd31eaef02347d31d36a54b4594ed2a\" tg-width=\"562\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data source: Wind</p><p>The Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has increased from 11 trillion yuan 10 years ago to less than 16 trillion yuan latest. However, the proportion of the Hang Seng Financial Industry Index has dropped significantly, from 46% to 25%, which is the industry with the largest decline.</p><p>Hong Kong local heavyweights Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01972\">Swire Properties</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00017\">New World Development</a>The real estate index that gathered together also performed weakly, and the market value share dropped from 10% to 9%.</p><p>In addition, the downturn in oil prices in the past 10 years has also caused the market value of the Hang Seng Energy Industry Index to decline from 4.8 trillion yuan to 2.1 trillion yuan. In the past 10 years, it has not increased but halved, and the proportion of market value has dropped sharply from 18% to 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b27148417ef1d600426d51d4c161bda\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The Choice of the Times and the Reform of HKEx</p><p>The past 10 years can be said to be the golden decade for Chinese technology companies. Ali,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>The two heroes have grown explosively, and their market value has increased to a behemoth of 5 trillion yuan. Meituan and Xiaomi were unknown ten years ago, but Meituan has become a technology leader with a market value of nearly 2 trillion yuan, and Xiaomi has also grown to a smart home ecological leader with a market value of 700 billion yuan.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>From years of losses to today's stable profits, the market value has reached trillions.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>A little less coquettish, although not as good as the explosive growth of the first decade of this century, it is steady and steady to live up to the trust of the times.</p><p>The strong development of the short video industry in recent years has created Kuaishou,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Waiting for the rise of video leaders. In addition, according to media reports in April this year, ByteDance has submitted an underwriter's employment letter to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and started the listing process in Hong Kong, with a valuation of US $400 billion. ByteDance, a phenomenal blockbuster company, will land on the Hong Kong stock market in the near future, and there is still considerable room for growth in the value of the Hong Kong technology stock market in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3dfd73fe60381e50e44793dfc84464\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the one hand, the times have given rich dividends to technology stocks, and on the other hand, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has learned from the bitter experience and reformed itself.</p><p>Hong Kong Stock Exchange missed in 2014<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Later, at the end of 2017, it finally made its biggest change in more than 20 years-releasing the structure of different rights for the same shares and the listing of biological companies that have not yet been profitable.</p><p>It is no exaggeration to say that starting from 2018, it will be the beginning of a new era for Hong Kong stocks. A large number of technology leaders who have missed the Hong Kong stock market before have chosen secondary listing in Hong Kong, including Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, NetEase and other established technology leaders. It also allows upstarts Meituan, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, etc. to choose Hong Kong as the first listing location. Today's Hong Kong stock market is an indispensable market for investing in China's technology industry!</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1890926.shtml\">新浪财经综合</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1890926.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2144702770","content_text":"港股科技股市值近10年来呈井喷之势，恒生资讯科技业指数市值由10年前（2011年6月）不足1万亿元，10年间暴增1800%至超17万亿元，并一举超过恒生金融业指数15.73万亿元的市值的市值，雄踞港股各行业市值榜首！\n港股市场整体稳步扩张\n港股三大权重行业指数10年来市值变化（见下图）。数据来源：Wind\n与此同时，港股主板总市值由10年前的约20万亿港元增至超50万亿港元。\n数据来源：Wind\n市值增长的主要原因是港股上市公司的大幅扩张，上市公司数量由10年前的1448家增至现今的近2600家。于此同时，曾以金融、地产股为主的恒生指数涨幅则相对有限，十年间仅有约20%。\n港股上市公司数量，如下图所示。\n\n从各行业指数市值占比来看，恒生资讯科技业指数比重（占入选恒生系列行业指数的公司总市值）由2011年6月的3%爆发式增至最新的25%！\n老经济板块低迷\n金融、地产、能源这三个权重老经济板块，则明显跑输市场，甚至能源已不再是一个权重板块。\n数据来源：Wind\n恒生金融业指数由10年前的11万亿元增至最新的不足16万亿元。但恒生金融业指数比重则下滑明显，由占比46%下滑至25%，是下滑幅度最大的行业。\n香港本地重磅股长实、新鸿基、太古地产、新世界发展等扎堆的地产指数也表现较弱，市值占比从10%降至9%。\n此外，近10年油价的低迷也导致恒生能源业指数市值由4.8万亿元下滑至2.1万亿元，10年来不增反而腰斩，市值比重由18%大幅下滑至3%。\n时代选择与港交所自身改革\n近10年，可以说是中国科技公司的黄金10年，阿里、腾讯双雄爆发式成长，市值均增长至5万亿量级的庞然大物。美团、小米十年前尚名不见经传，但美团已成为市值近2万亿的科技龙头，小米也成长至市值7000亿的智能家居生态龙头。京东从连年亏损到如今稳定盈利，市值达到万亿量级。百度、网易稍逊风骚，虽不如本世纪前十年的爆发式增长，也稳扎稳打不负时代所托。\n近几年的短视频行业强势发展，造就了快手、哔哩哔哩等视频龙头的崛起。此外，据媒体今年4月报道称，字节跳动已向港交所提交了承销商聘用函，启动了赴港上市流程，估值达4000亿美元。字节跳动这一现象级重磅公司在不久的未来将登陆港股，未来港股科技股市值仍有相当增长空间。\n一边是时代给了科技股丰厚的红利，另外一边则是港交所痛定思痛，自身改革。\n港交所在2014年错失阿里巴巴后，最终在2017年末做出了其二十多年来最大的变革——放行同股不同权架构和尚未盈利的生物公司上市。\n毫不夸张的说，从2018年起，对港股来说是一个全新时代的开启。大批此前无缘港股的科技龙头在香港选择二次上市，其中包括阿里巴巴、百度、京东、网易等老牌科技龙头。也让新贵美团、小米、快手等选择香港作为首次上市地点。现今的港股市场，已是投资中国科技行业不可或缺的市场！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163311117,"gmtCreate":1623859657639,"gmtModify":1703821779396,"author":{"id":"3562144044247952","authorId":"3562144044247952","name":"Awesomebyc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d663d2fd5a97cc2d244c53bde469763","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562144044247952","authorIdStr":"3562144044247952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"abcdefghijk","listText":"abcdefghijk","text":"abcdefghijk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163311117","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160325954,"gmtCreate":1623773176378,"gmtModify":1703819071612,"author":{"id":"3562144044247952","authorId":"3562144044247952","name":"Awesomebyc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d663d2fd5a97cc2d244c53bde469763","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562144044247952","authorIdStr":"3562144044247952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"12345678999","listText":"12345678999","text":"12345678999","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160325954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184106725,"gmtCreate":1623687036667,"gmtModify":1704208798808,"author":{"id":"3562144044247952","authorId":"3562144044247952","name":"Awesomebyc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d663d2fd5a97cc2d244c53bde469763","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562144044247952","authorIdStr":"3562144044247952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184106725","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182456368,"gmtCreate":1623600671754,"gmtModify":1704206848545,"author":{"id":"3562144044247952","authorId":"3562144044247952","name":"Awesomebyc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d663d2fd5a97cc2d244c53bde469763","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562144044247952","authorIdStr":"3562144044247952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"123456789","listText":"123456789","text":"123456789","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182456368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180915624,"gmtCreate":1623168445068,"gmtModify":1704197646415,"author":{"id":"3562144044247952","authorId":"3562144044247952","name":"Awesomebyc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d663d2fd5a97cc2d244c53bde469763","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562144044247952","authorIdStr":"3562144044247952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"4455667788","listText":"4455667788","text":"4455667788","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180915624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115288296,"gmtCreate":1623002888615,"gmtModify":1704194217230,"author":{"id":"3562144044247952","authorId":"3562144044247952","name":"Awesomebyc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d663d2fd5a97cc2d244c53bde469763","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562144044247952","authorIdStr":"3562144044247952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"12334455667788","listText":"12334455667788","text":"12334455667788","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/115288296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112479812,"gmtCreate":1622909203536,"gmtModify":1704193210098,"author":{"id":"3562144044247952","authorId":"3562144044247952","name":"Awesomebyc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d663d2fd5a97cc2d244c53bde469763","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562144044247952","authorIdStr":"3562144044247952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112479812","repostId":"1166736358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118067878,"gmtCreate":1622708540094,"gmtModify":1704189361303,"author":{"id":"3562144044247952","authorId":"3562144044247952","name":"Awesomebyc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d663d2fd5a97cc2d244c53bde469763","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562144044247952","authorIdStr":"3562144044247952"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"778899445566","listText":"778899445566","text":"778899445566","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118067878","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}