Profile - To The Moon

Yamcake18

Posts · 17Posts · 17
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- Yamcake18Yamcake18
  ·2021-01-11
  ？
  Will US stocks rise regardless of whether you invest in them? The bells are ringing for the bubble to burst.
  就像在赌博中下重注往往可以获得回报一样，在股市中，回报最高的股票往往也是风险最高的。上周，特斯拉CEO马斯克在社交媒体上提到，由于WhatsApp改变用户隐私条款，建议改用Signal通讯软件，殊不
  Will US stocks rise regardless of whether you invest in them? The bells are ringing for the bubble to burst.
  4.08K Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3560598381922417","uuid":"3560598381922417","gmtCreate":1597506678954,"gmtModify":1604371970609,"name":"Yamcake18","pinyin":"yamcake18","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7f68c89404c7c2abce9286c953c18d","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":27,"headSize":497,"tweetSize":17,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":43,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.02.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-1","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Experiencer","description":"5 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb5ae275631fb96a92d475cdc85d2302","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2660a1935bd2105e97c9915619936c3","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.23","exceedPercentage":"93.65%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.01%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":1,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":332858885,"gmtCreate":1610374758547,"gmtModify":1704983274222,"author":{"id":"3560598381922417","authorId":"3560598381922417","name":"Yamcake18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7f68c89404c7c2abce9286c953c18d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560598381922417","authorIdStr":"3560598381922417"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/332858885","repostId":"1120677382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120677382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1610374004,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120677382?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-11 22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will US stocks rise regardless of whether you invest in them? The bells are ringing for the bubble to burst.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120677382","media":"金十数据","summary":"就像在赌博中下重注往往可以获得回报一样，在股市中，回报最高的股票往往也是风险最高的。\n上周，特斯拉CEO马斯克在社交媒体上提到，由于WhatsApp改变用户隐私条款，建议改用Signal通讯软件，殊不","content":"<p>Just as betting big in gambling often yields returns, in the stock market, the stocks with the highest returns are often the riskiest.</p><p>Last week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>CEO Elon Musk mentioned on social media that WhatsApp had changed its user privacy policy and suggested switching to the Signal messaging software. Little did they know that the stock price of Signal Advance, another over-the-counter trading company with the same name, surged 12 times on January 11.</p><p>As the Nasdaq 100 index doubled in two years, bullish trading volume in the United States hit a record high last Wednesday (January 6), ranking fourth in daily trading volume history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54c9cb4ba71ee2adafaa5f3ffa20994\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\"></p><p>The market always seems to follow the crowd. With the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, the promotion of vaccines, and market sentiment turning optimistic, everyone from retail investors to institutional investors is rushing into the US stock market, trying to profit from this 10-month-long \"rally,\" but only a few winners will emerge.</p><p>This \"rise and fall\" frenzy could last for weeks or even months, and it is difficult to predict when it will subside, but warnings of a stock market bubble have already emerged. Doug Ramsey, Chief Investment Officer of Leuthold Group, wrote in a report to clients on January 8:</p><p>\"This is a full-blown investment frenzy, and the fact that the bull market is in its early stages does not mean that buying now is 'safer'.\" However, Bloomberg states that, for now, chasing market trends can indeed be profitable.<b>The Nasdaq 100 index reached a P/E of nearly 40 times on the first trading day of the new year, marking its biggest gain in two months. On the other hand, the cost of hedging stocks has always been high. The IPO boom for special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) continues, with 12 more companies filing for IPOs last Friday.</b></p><p>Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak+, said he believes last week's riots in Washington will at least slow this frenzy:</p><p>\"The market is currently flooded with too many bubbles. The US stock market has risen 16% in just two months and 70% since March. The riots in Congress should have suppressed the market. A 10%-15% correction is healthy.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6721cb86c85333e9d17d74f2891859e3\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\"></p><p>The real bubble is actually the options market.<b><u>The exercise price of $1,000 will expire on January 15th.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Call options were the most frequently traded option last Friday, with trading volume increasing fivefold to close at $9.15, compared to the opening price of just 53 cents last week.</u></b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It is said that retail investors appear to be the main force driving this trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It is pointed out that, according to margin account data from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the number of margin accounts in December saw strong growth compared to previous months.<b>JPMorgan Chase stated that after a seasonal decline in the last week of December last year, retail investors' enthusiasm for buying call options has returned strongly, as have retail investors trading over-the-counter.</b></p><p>On Friday, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a report:</p><p>\"Retail investors have once again injected liquidity into the market, similar to the situation in the second quarter of last year.\" Given market expectations that the U.S. government will further increase fiscal stimulus, this situation is likely to continue in the coming weeks. Some exchanges have already sensed business opportunities. Zhijiazhuang Futures Exchange has been tailoring investment plans for retail investors. Last June, it launched mini S&P 500 index options tailored for retail investors to increase liquidity.</p><p>In an interview last November, Arianne Criqui, head of derivatives and global client services at CFE, said the company \"believes that investor demand will continue, and therefore strives to launch products that can meet changing investor needs.\"</p><p>Jason Goepfert of Sundial Capital Research has also been emphasizing since the end of December that retail investors have a significant influence in the options market. He cited data on option trading volume and option prices.<b><u>Retail participants accounted for 54% and institutional participants accounted for 28%.</u></b>Goepfert wrote in a report last Tuesday:</p><p>\"Indicators that analyze real funds and leveraged instruments are the most reliable sentiment indicators. After observing some of the most leveraged investment instruments available to investors, we found that the current situation is not optimistic, and there is ample evidence of extreme speculation.\" Given that yields on many assets, such as cash and bonds, are at historically low levels, investors are prepared to buy heavily into riskier assets. They began to focus on stocks and options, hoping to obtain returns that other assets could not provide.</p><p>Susquehanna's derivatives strategist Chris Murphy pointed out in November,<b>Options portfolios, which take into account high volatility and high valuations, \"may be a good way to improve returns.\"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3ec86bac1933f2610ec7bd6b439a6a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"585\"></p><p>In a research report last week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists use more general stock market indicators to demonstrate signs of a bear market.<b><u>The results showed that 63% of the indicators matched, including fund capital outflow,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">Chicago Board Options Exchange</a>The VIX Index (CBOE Volatility Index) rose and consumer confidence surged.</u></b></p><p>However, the fact that the bubble has inflated to the brink of bursting does not equate to the destruction of the stock market. Although the VIX index hit a three-month high, it is still below its peak level of 79% in September 2018.</p><p>Bank of America strategists such as Savita Subramanian wrote:</p><p>\"Bear market signals (usually referring to signals triggered before the S&P 500 peaks) are becoming increasingly apparent, and we predict that the S&P 500's returns will be very low in 2021.\"</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will US stocks rise regardless of whether you invest in them? The bells are ringing for the bubble to burst.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill US stocks rise regardless of whether you invest in them? The bells are ringing for the bubble to burst.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-01-11 22:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Just as betting big in gambling often yields returns, in the stock market, the stocks with the highest returns are often the riskiest.</p><p>Last week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>CEO Elon Musk mentioned on social media that WhatsApp had changed its user privacy policy and suggested switching to the Signal messaging software. Little did they know that the stock price of Signal Advance, another over-the-counter trading company with the same name, surged 12 times on January 11.</p><p>As the Nasdaq 100 index doubled in two years, bullish trading volume in the United States hit a record high last Wednesday (January 6), ranking fourth in daily trading volume history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54c9cb4ba71ee2adafaa5f3ffa20994\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\"></p><p>The market always seems to follow the crowd. With the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, the promotion of vaccines, and market sentiment turning optimistic, everyone from retail investors to institutional investors is rushing into the US stock market, trying to profit from this 10-month-long \"rally,\" but only a few winners will emerge.</p><p>This \"rise and fall\" frenzy could last for weeks or even months, and it is difficult to predict when it will subside, but warnings of a stock market bubble have already emerged. Doug Ramsey, Chief Investment Officer of Leuthold Group, wrote in a report to clients on January 8:</p><p>\"This is a full-blown investment frenzy, and the fact that the bull market is in its early stages does not mean that buying now is 'safer'.\" However, Bloomberg states that, for now, chasing market trends can indeed be profitable.<b>The Nasdaq 100 index reached a P/E of nearly 40 times on the first trading day of the new year, marking its biggest gain in two months. On the other hand, the cost of hedging stocks has always been high. The IPO boom for special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) continues, with 12 more companies filing for IPOs last Friday.</b></p><p>Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak+, said he believes last week's riots in Washington will at least slow this frenzy:</p><p>\"The market is currently flooded with too many bubbles. The US stock market has risen 16% in just two months and 70% since March. The riots in Congress should have suppressed the market. A 10%-15% correction is healthy.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6721cb86c85333e9d17d74f2891859e3\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\"></p><p>The real bubble is actually the options market.<b><u>The exercise price of $1,000 will expire on January 15th.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Call options were the most frequently traded option last Friday, with trading volume increasing fivefold to close at $9.15, compared to the opening price of just 53 cents last week.</u></b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It is said that retail investors appear to be the main force driving this trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It is pointed out that, according to margin account data from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the number of margin accounts in December saw strong growth compared to previous months.<b>JPMorgan Chase stated that after a seasonal decline in the last week of December last year, retail investors' enthusiasm for buying call options has returned strongly, as have retail investors trading over-the-counter.</b></p><p>On Friday, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a report:</p><p>\"Retail investors have once again injected liquidity into the market, similar to the situation in the second quarter of last year.\" Given market expectations that the U.S. government will further increase fiscal stimulus, this situation is likely to continue in the coming weeks. Some exchanges have already sensed business opportunities. Zhijiazhuang Futures Exchange has been tailoring investment plans for retail investors. Last June, it launched mini S&P 500 index options tailored for retail investors to increase liquidity.</p><p>In an interview last November, Arianne Criqui, head of derivatives and global client services at CFE, said the company \"believes that investor demand will continue, and therefore strives to launch products that can meet changing investor needs.\"</p><p>Jason Goepfert of Sundial Capital Research has also been emphasizing since the end of December that retail investors have a significant influence in the options market. He cited data on option trading volume and option prices.<b><u>Retail participants accounted for 54% and institutional participants accounted for 28%.</u></b>Goepfert wrote in a report last Tuesday:</p><p>\"Indicators that analyze real funds and leveraged instruments are the most reliable sentiment indicators. After observing some of the most leveraged investment instruments available to investors, we found that the current situation is not optimistic, and there is ample evidence of extreme speculation.\" Given that yields on many assets, such as cash and bonds, are at historically low levels, investors are prepared to buy heavily into riskier assets. They began to focus on stocks and options, hoping to obtain returns that other assets could not provide.</p><p>Susquehanna's derivatives strategist Chris Murphy pointed out in November,<b>Options portfolios, which take into account high volatility and high valuations, \"may be a good way to improve returns.\"</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3ec86bac1933f2610ec7bd6b439a6a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"585\"></p><p>In a research report last week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Strategists use more general stock market indicators to demonstrate signs of a bear market.<b><u>The results showed that 63% of the indicators matched, including fund capital outflow,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">Chicago Board Options Exchange</a>The VIX Index (CBOE Volatility Index) rose and consumer confidence surged.</u></b></p><p>However, the fact that the bubble has inflated to the brink of bursting does not equate to the destruction of the stock market. Although the VIX index hit a three-month high, it is still below its peak level of 79% in September 2018.</p><p>Bank of America strategists such as Savita Subramanian wrote:</p><p>\"Bear market signals (usually referring to signals triggered before the S&P 500 peaks) are becoming increasingly apparent, and we predict that the S&P 500's returns will be very low in 2021.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/69208\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/69208","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120677382","content_text":"就像在赌博中下重注往往可以获得回报一样，在股市中，回报最高的股票往往也是风险最高的。\n上周，特斯拉CEO马斯克在社交媒体上提到，由于WhatsApp改变用户隐私条款，建议改用Signal通讯软件，殊不知另外一家“撞名”的场外交易公司Signal Advance的股价在1月11日飙升了12倍。\n随着纳斯达克100指数在两年内翻了一番，上周三（1月6日）美国看涨交易量创新高，日交易量在历史上排第四。\n\n市场似乎总是在随波逐流，在美联储宽松的货币政策、疫苗的推广以及市场情绪转向乐观的情况下，从散户到机构投资者，所有人都在争相挤入美股市场，试图从这已持续10个月的“融涨”中获利，但赢家只能是少数。\n这种“融涨”狂潮可能会持续数周甚至数月，至于它何时才会消退，难以进行预测，但股市泡沫警告已经四起。Leuthold Group的首席投资官Doug Ramsey在1月8日写给客户的一份报告中写道：\n\n “这是一种全面的投资狂潮，牛市行情处于初期并不意味着现在买入更‘安全’。”\n\n但彭博社称，就目前来看，追逐行情的确是可以获利的。纳斯达克100指数在新年交易首日市盈率就达到近40倍，创下两个月来的最大涨幅。另一方面，对冲股票的成本一直很高。特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的上市热潮也在继续，上周五又有12家公司提交了IPO申请。\nMiller Tabak+的首席市场策略师Matt Maley说，他认为上周华盛顿的骚乱至少会减缓这种狂热：\n\n “目前市场充斥着太多的泡沫。在短短两个月的时间里，美股市场上涨了16%，自3月份以来上涨了70%，国会的骚乱事件本应打压市场。10%-15%的回调才是健康的。”\n\n\n要说真正的泡沫，其实是期权市场。将于1月15日到期、行权价为1000美元的特斯拉看涨期权是上周五交易最频繁的期权，交易量翻了五倍，收于9.15美元，而上周的开盘价仅为53美分。\n摩根大通称，散户似乎是推动这一趋势的主力军。摩根大通指出，根据纽约证券交易所（NYSE）保证金账户数据，12月份的保证金账户数量较前几个月有强劲增长。摩根大通表示，在去年12月的最后一周出现季节性下跌后，散户买入看涨期权的热潮又强势回归，场外交易的散户也是如此。\n周五，以Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou为首的策略师在一份报告中写道：\n\n “散户再次为市场注入流动性，这与去年第二季度的情况类似。”\n\n鉴于市场预期美国政府会进一步加大财政刺激力度，这种情况可能会在未来几周持续下去。一些交易所已经嗅到了商机。芝期所一直在为散户定制投资方案，去年6月为散户量身推出了迷你标普指数期权，来增加流动性。\n芝期所衍生品和全球客户服务主管Arianne Criqui在去年11月接受采访时表示，该公司 “相信投资者需求会持续下去，因此努力推出一些能满足投资者需求变化的产品。”\nSundial Capital Research的Jason Goepfert也自12月底以来一直在强调，散户在期权市场上的影响力很大。他引用了期权交易量和期权价格的数据，其中散户参与者占54%，机构参与者占28%。Goepfert在上周二的一份报告中写道：\n\n “分析真实资金和杠杆工具的指标是最可靠的情绪指标。观察一些可供投资者使用的杠杆率最高的投资工具后，我们发现，目前情况不容乐观，有大量证据表明存在着极端投机的情况。”\n\n鉴于现金和债券等许多资产的收益率处于历史低位，投资者已经做好了大举买入风险较高资产的准备。他们开始关注股票和期权，期望获得其他资产所不能给予的收益。\nSusquehanna的衍生品策略师Chris Murphy在11月指出，期权组合综合考虑了高波动性和高估值，“可能是提高收益率的一种好方法”。\n\n在上周的一份研究报告中，美国银行的策略师利用更普遍的股市指标来证明熊市的迹象，结果发现63%的指标吻合，包括基金的资金外流、芝加哥期权交易所VIX指数（CBOE Volatility Index）上升以及消费者信心高涨。\n不过泡沫已经膨胀到临近破灭的边缘，并不等同于股市毁灭。尽管VIX指数创下了三个月来的新高，但仍低于2018年9月份79%的峰值水平。\nSavita Subramanian等美银策略分析师写道：\n\n “熊市信号（通常指在标普500指数达到峰值之前触发的信号）越来越明显，我们预测，2021年标普500指数的回报率将会很低。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}