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- Kein2020Kein2020
  ·2023-12-21
  Aww $蔚来(NIO)$ y@Alan聊特斯拉
  "New Federal Reserve News Agency": Powell suddenly turned, and the market was stunned
  美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。
  "New Federal Reserve News Agency": Powell suddenly turned, and the market was stunned
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<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>y<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569899433800417\">@Alan聊特斯拉&nbsp;</a>","listText":"Aww <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>y<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3569899433800417\">@Alan聊特斯拉&nbsp;</a>","text":"Aww $蔚来(NIO)$ y@Alan聊特斯拉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/254356408414480","repostId":"2392189150","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2392189150","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1703131049,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2392189150?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-12-21 11:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"New Federal Reserve News Agency\": Powell suddenly turned, and the market was stunned","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2392189150","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The real attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and magnitude of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market confused.</strong></p><p>Nick Timiraos, a reporter from the Wall Street Journal, known as the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", wrote that due to the continuous decline of inflation, the attitude of the Federal Reserve at the last policy meeting of the year was significantly softened. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell even made it clear that \"interest rate cuts have been discussed\", which made the U.S. stock and bond markets rise in a carnival fashion.</p><p>However, Nick Timiraos also said that although Powell's dovish tendency was obvious at the policy conference press conference, many local Fed presidents tried to convey a hawkish tone to the market in the following days, that is, inflation has not yet dropped back to the 2% target, and the Fed will still retain the option of keeping interest rates \"higher and longer\".<strong>The real attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and magnitude of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market confused.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3566411568\">Prospects of rate cuts pull markets back, but Fed officials still hawk</h2>Over the past year, Powell has been very tight, and has been posing as if he is going to fight inflation for a long time. He has opened every post-conference press conference since July 2022 by pointing out that a recession, a hiring slowdown, may be needed to bring inflation down.</p><p>Although in a policy meeting statement released last week, Fed officials did not rule out continuing to raise interest rates. But in a follow-up speech, Powell took it upon himself to say that some officials had begun to discuss the prospect of a rate cut, and while that was not the focus of his speech, the prospect of a jubilant rate cut still ignited a rally in the market.</p><p>After Powell's Dec. 13 press conference, markets began to expect that the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 basis points starting in March, followed by five consecutive 25 basis point cuts. According to the official forecast of the Federal Reserve, it will only cut interest rates three times next year.</p><p>Before this meeting, the starting node of interest rate cuts expected by the market was May, and the number of interest rate cuts would not exceed four times during the year.</p><p>In the days following Powell's speech, a number of back-to-back Fed chairs spoke, pouring cold water on speculation of a March rate cut.</p><p>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a televised interview Monday that the market's reaction to Powell was \"confusing\":</p><p>\"We're not going to have speculative debates about specific policies going forward.\"</p><p>Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said in an interview Tuesday:</p><p>\"I am not opposed to cutting interest rates provided I am confident that inflation has reached the desired level, but I am still looking for evidence that 'inflation will stabilize at the Fed's 2% target and not higher.'\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1095361584\">Markets bet ahead on rate cuts</h2>Over the past year and a half, the Fed has engaged in a tug-of-war with markets, which tend to drop inflation faster and cut interest rates more sharply than the Fed expects.</p><p>But the current picture feels different, as inflation has been at or near the Fed's target in five of the past six months. Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said in a media interview:</p><p>\"The difference is the data. Inflation fell sooner and faster than the Fed prudently expected.\"</p><p>Last week, Fed officials projected that core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, would end the year at 3.2%, down 0.5% from expectations three months ago.</p><p>The question, Guha said, is whether Fed officials feel that the market is \"completely wrong\" or equally recognize that inflation is going down, just don't want to express their position now in the next three months, giving the market too much optimistic hope.</p><p>She believes,<strong>Fed officials' perfunctory counterattacks to markets suggest mostly the latter</strong>。</p><p>But even so, many market analysts have warned investors not to underestimate the Fed's patience in addressing inflation.</p><p>Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Los Angeles-based asset manager Payden & Rygel, said:</p><p>\"The Fed definitely wants to make sure that the inflation rate will return to 2%, not 3% or 3.5%. The Fed will not compromise on the inflation target, and they have the patience to achieve it.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"New Federal Reserve News Agency\": Powell suddenly turned, and the market was stunned</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"New Federal Reserve News Agency\": Powell suddenly turned, and the market was stunned\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-12-21 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The real attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and magnitude of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market confused.</strong></p><p>Nick Timiraos, a reporter from the Wall Street Journal, known as the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", wrote that due to the continuous decline of inflation, the attitude of the Federal Reserve at the last policy meeting of the year was significantly softened. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell even made it clear that \"interest rate cuts have been discussed\", which made the U.S. stock and bond markets rise in a carnival fashion.</p><p>However, Nick Timiraos also said that although Powell's dovish tendency was obvious at the policy conference press conference, many local Fed presidents tried to convey a hawkish tone to the market in the following days, that is, inflation has not yet dropped back to the 2% target, and the Fed will still retain the option of keeping interest rates \"higher and longer\".<strong>The real attitude of the Federal Reserve is ambiguous, and the node and magnitude of interest rate cuts are difficult to predict, which makes the market confused.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3566411568\">Prospects of rate cuts pull markets back, but Fed officials still hawk</h2>Over the past year, Powell has been very tight, and has been posing as if he is going to fight inflation for a long time. He has opened every post-conference press conference since July 2022 by pointing out that a recession, a hiring slowdown, may be needed to bring inflation down.</p><p>Although in a policy meeting statement released last week, Fed officials did not rule out continuing to raise interest rates. But in a follow-up speech, Powell took it upon himself to say that some officials had begun to discuss the prospect of a rate cut, and while that was not the focus of his speech, the prospect of a jubilant rate cut still ignited a rally in the market.</p><p>After Powell's Dec. 13 press conference, markets began to expect that the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 basis points starting in March, followed by five consecutive 25 basis point cuts. According to the official forecast of the Federal Reserve, it will only cut interest rates three times next year.</p><p>Before this meeting, the starting node of interest rate cuts expected by the market was May, and the number of interest rate cuts would not exceed four times during the year.</p><p>In the days following Powell's speech, a number of back-to-back Fed chairs spoke, pouring cold water on speculation of a March rate cut.</p><p>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in a televised interview Monday that the market's reaction to Powell was \"confusing\":</p><p>\"We're not going to have speculative debates about specific policies going forward.\"</p><p>Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said in an interview Tuesday:</p><p>\"I am not opposed to cutting interest rates provided I am confident that inflation has reached the desired level, but I am still looking for evidence that 'inflation will stabilize at the Fed's 2% target and not higher.'\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1095361584\">Markets bet ahead on rate cuts</h2>Over the past year and a half, the Fed has engaged in a tug-of-war with markets, which tend to drop inflation faster and cut interest rates more sharply than the Fed expects.</p><p>But the current picture feels different, as inflation has been at or near the Fed's target in five of the past six months. Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said in a media interview:</p><p>\"The difference is the data. Inflation fell sooner and faster than the Fed prudently expected.\"</p><p>Last week, Fed officials projected that core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, would end the year at 3.2%, down 0.5% from expectations three months ago.</p><p>The question, Guha said, is whether Fed officials feel that the market is \"completely wrong\" or equally recognize that inflation is going down, just don't want to express their position now in the next three months, giving the market too much optimistic hope.</p><p>She believes,<strong>Fed officials' perfunctory counterattacks to markets suggest mostly the latter</strong>。</p><p>But even so, many market analysts have warned investors not to underestimate the Fed's patience in addressing inflation.</p><p>Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Los Angeles-based asset manager Payden & Rygel, said:</p><p>\"The Fed definitely wants to make sure that the inflation rate will return to 2%, not 3% or 3.5%. The Fed will not compromise on the inflation target, and they have the patience to achieve it.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e19f48a31cee5b3db8d8d914ae81b2c2","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704654","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2392189150","content_text":"美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。有“新美联储通讯社”之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos撰文指出，由于通胀持续走低，美联储在年内最后一次政策会议上态度显著软化，联储主席鲍威尔甚至明确提出“已经开始讨论降息”，令美国股债商市场齐齐狂欢式上涨。但Nick Timiraos也表示，尽管鲍威尔在政策会议新闻发布会上鸽派倾向明显，但多位地方联储主席在之后的几天里，都在尝试向市场传递鹰派基调，即通胀尚未回落至2%目标，美联储仍然会保留维持利率“更高更长”的选择。美联储的真实态度暧昧不明，降息节点和幅度难以预判，令市场也感到一头雾水。降息前景拉动市场反弹，但美联储官员仍放鹰声鲍威尔在过去一年里，口风始终都很紧，一直摆出一副要和通胀进行旷日持久的殊死搏斗的样子。自2022年7月以来，他在每次会后新闻发布会的开头都会指出，要降低通胀可能需要经济衰退、招聘放缓。尽管在上周公布的政策会议声明中，美联储官员并未排除继续提高利率的可能性。但鲍威尔在后续的讲话中主动表示，一些官员已开始讨论降息的前景，虽然这番话并不是他讲话的重点，但欢欣鼓舞的降息前景仍然点燃了市场的反弹。鲍威尔12月13日的新闻发布会后，市场开始预期美联储可能会从3月份开始降息25个基点，之后再连续五次降息25个基点。而根据美联储官方的预测，明年仅会降息三次。而在此次会议之前，市场预计的降息起始节点是5月，年内降息次数不会超过四次。鲍威尔讲话后的几天里，连续多位美联储主席发表讲话，为3月降息的猜测泼冷水。芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee周一在电视采访中表示，市场对鲍威尔的反应“令人困惑”：“我们不会对未来的具体政策进行猜测性辩论。”里士满联储主席Tom Barkin周二在接受采访时表示：“我不反对下调利率，前提是确信通胀率已经达到了想要的水平，但我仍在寻找‘通胀将稳定在美联储2%的目标而不是更高’的证据。”市场提前押注降息过去一年半以来，美联储与市场展开了拉锯战，市场往往比美联储预期通胀下降得更快，降息幅度更大。但目前的情况让人感觉不同，因为在过去六个月中，有五个月的通胀率都达到或接近美联储的目标。Evercore ISI 公司副董事长Krishna Guha在媒体采访中表示：“不同之处在于数据。通胀下降比美联储审慎预期的来得更早、更快。”上周，美联储官员预计，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率将在今年年底达到3.2%，比三个月前的预期下降了0.5%。Guha表示，问题在于，美联储官员究竟是觉得市场“完全错了”，还是同样认可通胀正在下行，只是不想现在就表达未来三个月后的立场，给市场太多乐观的希望。她相信，美联储官员对市场敷衍的反击表明多半是后者。但即使如此，许多市场分析人士还是警告投资者，不要小看美联储解决通胀问题的耐心。总部位于洛杉矶的资产管理公司 Payden & Rygel 的首席经济学家 Jeffrey Cleveland 表示：“美联储肯定希望确定通胀率将回到2%，而不是3%或者3.5%。在通胀目标上美联储不会妥协，他们有耐心去实现。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}