To The Moon

For Q4 2024, 75% of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies beat EPS estimates and 63% exceeded revenue expectations.97% of the S&P 500 companies have reported results, with earnings exceeding expectations by 7.5%, although this is below the 5-year average of 8.5%.The blended earnings growth rate for Q4 2024 is 18.2%, marking the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate since Q4 2021.Overall, the blended revenue growth rate for Q4 is 5.3%, with sectors like Financials and Health Care contributing positively to this growth. Industrials had the largest revenue decline at -2.7%.Positive surprises were particularly noticeable in Financials (+12.6%), Information Technology (+7.5%), and Consumer Discretionary (+13.2%).The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the

I was on vacation last week, so here’s a brief analysis of key events and their impact on capital markets.Last week, the market continued its downward trend, with a sharp rebound late on Friday likely driven by month-end fund rebalancing and a gamma squeeze triggered by the expiration of a large volume of options and the rebalancing. This does not indicate a shift in market sentiment. Therefore, today's decline should not be too surprising. However, note that the S&P 500 is only down about 4% from its peak. The reason why investor sentiment feels particularly bearish is that previously popular stocks, such as $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , and some speculative small caps, have experienced sig

$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ (BILI, BUY) - Solid 4Q Driven by Gaming and Advertising; Strong Momentum Likely to Continue in 2025; Maintain BUY and $25 PT We are maintaining our BUY rating and $25 PT after BILI reported above-consensus 4Q revenue and profits. 4Q DAU grew 3% y/y to 103M (vs. +4% in 3Q). MAU grew 1% y/y to 340M (vs. +2% in 1Q), with the DAU/MAU ratio largely stable at 30%. Engagement metrics remained healthy: average daily time was 99 minutes in 4Q, +4% y/y; average total daily video views grew 12% to 4.8B (vs. +23% in 3Q); average monthly interactions increased 3% y/y to 15.5B.Driven by the continued success of San Guo, Mobile Game revenue grew 79% y/y in 4Q (vs. +84% in 3Q). BILI believes San Guo will have a long lifecycle of over f

$Alibaba(BABA)$ . (BABA, BUY) - 3Q Beat Driven by E-commerce and Cloud; Rising Capex to Seize Growth Opportunities; Maintain BUY and Increase PT to $145 We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing PT to $145 (was $115) after BABA reported strong F3Q results with both revenue and profits above expectations. The company has completed major offline asset divestments to focus on e-commerce and AI + Cloud.Total revenue grew 8% y/y (accelerated 3pts from last quarter) and adjusted EBITA grew 4% for the first time since F3Q24. TTG CMR grew 9% (accelerated 7pt), with both take rate and GMV up y/y with larger contribution from take rate expansion. Take rate expansion was mainly driven by the 0.6% software service fee and increased penetration of

iQIYI, Inc. (IQ, HOLD) - 4Q In Line; 2025 Growth Outlook Uncertain; Full report download: Click here to view or download the PDF fileWe are maintaining our HOLD rating and $2.5 PT after IQ reported largely in-line but declined revenue and profits. By segment, membership revenue declined 15% y/y (vs. -13% in 3Q), likely due to lower subscribers (IQ does not disclose sub count anymore) due to a lighter content slate. 4Q advertising revenue declined 13% y/y (vs. -20% in 3Q). Due to declined revenue, 4Q's non-GAAP operating margin also declined to 6%, from 12% a year ago. 4Q's operating

$Baidu(BIDU)$ - 4Q Mixed; Growth and Margins to Gradually Improve in 2025; —Tigertrade ResearchFull report: Click here to view or download the PDF fileWeekly chart We are maintaining our BUY rating but decreasing PT to $118 (was $120) after $Baidu(BIDU)$ reported mixed 4Q results with revenue above but profits below consensus.Baidu Core ad revenue declined 7% y/y, vs. -5% in 3Q, as macro remained weak and more search results are now AI generated, which is not monetized. Specifically, 22% of search result pages now contain generated content, up from last reported 20%. Mgmt. believes AI transformati

In this earnings season, most $.SPX(.SPX)$ companies exceeded EPS expectations, although the overall magnitude of the surprises was lower than historical levels.Nevertheless, the strong performance of leading sectors drove both earnings and revenues higher, and the market remains cautiously optimistic about growth in the coming quarters.How do S&P companies perform in this earnings season?77% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, with an average EPS surprise of +5.0%—well below the 5-year average of +8.5%.On the revenue side, 63% of companies beat expectations, but the average revenue surprise was only +0.9%. The blended earnings growth rate reached 13.2%, the highest level since Q4 2021, while the revenue growth rate stood at 5.0%.Ho

Trump’s 2025 tariff plans could rewrite the rules of global trade And your wallet might feel it first. A 60% tariff on China, 25% on Mexico and Canada, and a 20% global import tax are all on the table. Here are the potential benefits and impacts:ImageTariffs are taxes on imported goods, making them more expensive. Trump’s proposed tariffs for 2025 could spark trade wars, disrupt supply chains, and impact consumer prices. These measures are intended to enhance U.S. manufacturing; however, they may involve significant trade-offs. Potential Wins for the U.S. Boosting Domestic Industry: Higher import costs could push consumers toward U.S.-made goods, benefiting local businesses and workers. Negotiating Leverage: Tariffs can pressure trade partners into better deals on currency policies, energy

1. How did the U.S. stock market perform during Trump's first term (2017-2021)?2. How does the stock market generally fluctuate on the first trading day after a Republican president's inauguration?3. How will the policy directions mentioned in the January 20th inauguration speech affect US stock market sectors and companies?4. How might Trump's presidency impact global asset classes? Read the article to get all the answer.

On January 7, 2025, a wildfire broke out in the Los Angeles area of California, US, and it is still ongoing. As of January 15, the fire has burned an area of over 164.3 square kilometers.More than 90,000 people in Los Angeles have been evacuated. Some institutions have raised their loss estimates for the Los Angeles fire to between $135 billion and $150 billion.Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, believes that the economic losses from this wildfire are estimated to be around $250 billion, surpassing the losses caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.Tens of thousands of residents have been displaced and are in need of food, shelter, emergency medical supplies, mental health counseling, and even the purchase of new homes. Many businesses have also suffered severe damage to their ope