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- 老虎发威了老虎发威了
  ·2020-05-05
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  AXA's May Diversified Asset Outlook: Bullish on Corporate Bonds, Risk Premium Expected to Remain High in the Near Term
  法国安盛投资管理公司增持投资级信用债，同时将股票评级上调至中性，但预计短期内风险溢价仍将高企。
  AXA's May Diversified Asset Outlook: Bullish on Corporate Bonds, Risk Premium Expected to Remain High in the Near Term
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- 老虎发威了老虎发威了
  ·2020-03-27
  niu
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- 老虎发威了老虎发威了
  ·2020-03-27
  niu
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- 老虎发威了老虎发威了
  ·2020-03-11
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  Pan Xiangdong: A-shares are not necessarily a safe haven for global assets, but they are relatively resilient.
  原标题：【专访】经济学家潘向东：A股并不一定是全球资产避风港，但相对比较抗跌图片来源：视觉中国　　记者 | 满乐　　在美股出现历史性熔断之后，全球股市都在经历“过山车”行情。　　3月10日晚间
  Pan Xiangdong: A-shares are not necessarily a safe haven for global assets, but they are relatively resilient.
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19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AXA's May Diversified Asset Outlook: Bullish on Corporate Bonds, Risk Premium Expected to Remain High in the Near Term","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2033536600","media":"金十数据","summary":"法国安盛投资管理公司增持投资级信用债，同时将股票评级上调至中性，但预计短期内风险溢价仍将高企。","content":"<p><html><body><span>This article is from RMB Trading and Research.</span></p><p><hr/>In its May diversified asset investment report, AXA Investment Management stated that a gradual economic recovery and extraordinary fiscal and policy measures are supporting the market, especially investment-grade corporate bonds. Therefore, the company decided to increase its holdings of investment-grade corporate bonds and upgrade its stock rating to neutral. However, it also believes that it is too early to take a more proactive stance and warns that there are still a series of potential volatility risks in the future, so the risk premium is expected to remain high in the short term.</p><p>AXA released its May diversified asset investment report on the 28th, pointing out that its<strong><span>Three important investment beliefs</span></strong>：</p><p><strong>1. Be optimistic about corporate bonds</strong>Unprecedented support from fiscal and monetary authorities should help alleviate concerns about valuation and liquidity.</p><p><strong>2. Hold a neutral view on stocks</strong>The global economy will inevitably decline sharply in the first half of 2020, which will have a huge negative impact on profitability, but the foundation for economic growth to rebound in the second half of the year is brewing.</p><p><strong>3. Take a neutral stance on the duration of government bonds.</strong>Monetary policy has clearly provided support for bonds, but unprecedented fiscal stimulus and unprecedented supply should keep government bond yields in their current range.</p><p>Therefore, AXA made corresponding position arrangements based on these beliefs, while also hedging long stock call options Delta to protect its portfolio where possible.</p><p>Last month, AXA pointed out the need to overcome the COVID-19 crisis.<strong><span>Meet three conditions</span></strong>：<strong>1) Strong central bank support; 2) Massive global fiscal easing; 3) The epidemic has reached a turning point, so that lockdown measures can be gradually lifted.</strong></p><p>AXA believes these conditions are used to answer...<strong><span>The key to two important issues</span></strong>Location:<strong>1) How long will the economic shutdown last, and what will be the impact on GDP? 2) Is the policy stimulus sufficient to fill the GDP gap?</strong></p><p>The ultimate outcome of the economy and asset prices depends on the net sum of each of these uncertain factors. If monetary and fiscal stimulus fail to achieve the expected results, the economy and financial markets will also be affected.</p><p>First,<strong>The efforts made by central banks to curb financial pressures and support the economy are unprecedented</strong><strong>，</strong>Because they further expand the use of unconventional tools.</p><p>Therefore, although this impact exceeds the real impact of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the tightening of financial conditions appears to be far less than during the GFC, all thanks to this more proactive and timely action.</p><p>As a result, within this year alone, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet may double in size relative to the economy, and its ratio to GDP may approach 40% by the end of the year.</p><p>At this critical moment in the crisis, the Federal Reserve's unconventional actions, such as being able to make off-balance-sheet lending, have also contributed significantly. Powell's description of the Fed's \"strong, proactive, and aggressive\" actions best encapsulates this.</p><p>Secondly,<strong>The fiscal policy response is large-scale</strong><strong>，</strong>These include counter-cyclical measures such as unemployment benefits, other income maintenance programs, tax cuts, and government guarantees for corporate loans.</p><p>Following this fiscal response by policymakers, the scale of discretionary fiscal easing is now close to 5% of global GDP, and exceeds 6% of GDP in advanced economies. This exceeded AXA and market expectations in both scale and timing, and this expectation is growing rapidly with the announcement of new fiscal measures, especially in the United States.</p><p>Therefore, this should push the US federal deficit to more than double the record level reached during the previous global financial crisis. These deficit forecasts mean that debt ratios in advanced economies will see a record jump, which will have important medium- and long-term consequences, especially for fragile countries such as Italy, whose debt levels should exceed 160% of GDP.</p><p>Third,<strong>The epidemic situation is stabilizing.</strong></p><p>At the time of writing, new deaths worldwide have declined significantly. Against this backdrop, some countries have begun to ease their lockdown measures. In the United States, several states relaxed social distancing measures this week. Other states will also provide guidance on reopening plans and may begin reopening their economies as early as May or as early as June at the latest. In Europe, the prospect of lifting lockdown measures is also heating up, with some countries announcing timetables for easing restrictions. AXA believes these factors laid the foundation for an economic rebound in the second half of 2020.</p><p>In short, the gradual economic recovery, along with extraordinary fiscal and policy measures, are supporting the market, especially for investment-grade corporate bonds.</p><p>Therefore, AXA increased its holdings of investment-grade corporate bonds in its portfolio and also upgraded its stock rating to neutral. However, even though AXA maintains a constructive attitude towards risky assets in the medium term, it believes it is too early to take a more proactive stance.</p><p>In fact, pricing driven by optimism about economic recovery makes...<strong>High-risk assets are more susceptible to disappointment</strong>。 Moreover, in an environment with so many uncertainties, the magnitude of this rebound is unprecedented.</p><p>AXA reminds the following<strong>There are a range of potential risks</strong>：<u>This includes a second wave of infections, a slow return to normal, potential second-round effects from corporate defaults, and further market turmoil (such as the sharp drop in oil prices to negative levels in April). Therefore, the risk premium is expected to remain high in the short term.</u></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/f23c8585-0fc6-4829-99dd-15caf90a31fa.png\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AXA's May Diversified Asset Outlook: Bullish on Corporate Bonds, Risk Premium Expected to Remain High in the Near Term</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAXA's May Diversified Asset Outlook: Bullish on Corporate Bonds, Risk Premium Expected to Remain High in the Near Term\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-05-05 19:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><span>This article is from RMB Trading and Research.</span></p><p><hr/>In its May diversified asset investment report, AXA Investment Management stated that a gradual economic recovery and extraordinary fiscal and policy measures are supporting the market, especially investment-grade corporate bonds. Therefore, the company decided to increase its holdings of investment-grade corporate bonds and upgrade its stock rating to neutral. However, it also believes that it is too early to take a more proactive stance and warns that there are still a series of potential volatility risks in the future, so the risk premium is expected to remain high in the short term.</p><p>AXA released its May diversified asset investment report on the 28th, pointing out that its<strong><span>Three important investment beliefs</span></strong>：</p><p><strong>1. Be optimistic about corporate bonds</strong>Unprecedented support from fiscal and monetary authorities should help alleviate concerns about valuation and liquidity.</p><p><strong>2. Hold a neutral view on stocks</strong>The global economy will inevitably decline sharply in the first half of 2020, which will have a huge negative impact on profitability, but the foundation for economic growth to rebound in the second half of the year is brewing.</p><p><strong>3. Take a neutral stance on the duration of government bonds.</strong>Monetary policy has clearly provided support for bonds, but unprecedented fiscal stimulus and unprecedented supply should keep government bond yields in their current range.</p><p>Therefore, AXA made corresponding position arrangements based on these beliefs, while also hedging long stock call options Delta to protect its portfolio where possible.</p><p>Last month, AXA pointed out the need to overcome the COVID-19 crisis.<strong><span>Meet three conditions</span></strong>：<strong>1) Strong central bank support; 2) Massive global fiscal easing; 3) The epidemic has reached a turning point, so that lockdown measures can be gradually lifted.</strong></p><p>AXA believes these conditions are used to answer...<strong><span>The key to two important issues</span></strong>Location:<strong>1) How long will the economic shutdown last, and what will be the impact on GDP? 2) Is the policy stimulus sufficient to fill the GDP gap?</strong></p><p>The ultimate outcome of the economy and asset prices depends on the net sum of each of these uncertain factors. If monetary and fiscal stimulus fail to achieve the expected results, the economy and financial markets will also be affected.</p><p>First,<strong>The efforts made by central banks to curb financial pressures and support the economy are unprecedented</strong><strong>，</strong>Because they further expand the use of unconventional tools.</p><p>Therefore, although this impact exceeds the real impact of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the tightening of financial conditions appears to be far less than during the GFC, all thanks to this more proactive and timely action.</p><p>As a result, within this year alone, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet may double in size relative to the economy, and its ratio to GDP may approach 40% by the end of the year.</p><p>At this critical moment in the crisis, the Federal Reserve's unconventional actions, such as being able to make off-balance-sheet lending, have also contributed significantly. Powell's description of the Fed's \"strong, proactive, and aggressive\" actions best encapsulates this.</p><p>Secondly,<strong>The fiscal policy response is large-scale</strong><strong>，</strong>These include counter-cyclical measures such as unemployment benefits, other income maintenance programs, tax cuts, and government guarantees for corporate loans.</p><p>Following this fiscal response by policymakers, the scale of discretionary fiscal easing is now close to 5% of global GDP, and exceeds 6% of GDP in advanced economies. This exceeded AXA and market expectations in both scale and timing, and this expectation is growing rapidly with the announcement of new fiscal measures, especially in the United States.</p><p>Therefore, this should push the US federal deficit to more than double the record level reached during the previous global financial crisis. These deficit forecasts mean that debt ratios in advanced economies will see a record jump, which will have important medium- and long-term consequences, especially for fragile countries such as Italy, whose debt levels should exceed 160% of GDP.</p><p>Third,<strong>The epidemic situation is stabilizing.</strong></p><p>At the time of writing, new deaths worldwide have declined significantly. Against this backdrop, some countries have begun to ease their lockdown measures. In the United States, several states relaxed social distancing measures this week. Other states will also provide guidance on reopening plans and may begin reopening their economies as early as May or as early as June at the latest. In Europe, the prospect of lifting lockdown measures is also heating up, with some countries announcing timetables for easing restrictions. AXA believes these factors laid the foundation for an economic rebound in the second half of 2020.</p><p>In short, the gradual economic recovery, along with extraordinary fiscal and policy measures, are supporting the market, especially for investment-grade corporate bonds.</p><p>Therefore, AXA increased its holdings of investment-grade corporate bonds in its portfolio and also upgraded its stock rating to neutral. However, even though AXA maintains a constructive attitude towards risky assets in the medium term, it believes it is too early to take a more proactive stance.</p><p>In fact, pricing driven by optimism about economic recovery makes...<strong>High-risk assets are more susceptible to disappointment</strong>。 Moreover, in an environment with so many uncertainties, the magnitude of this rebound is unprecedented.</p><p>AXA reminds the following<strong>There are a range of potential risks</strong>：<u>This includes a second wave of infections, a slow return to normal, potential second-round effects from corporate defaults, and further market turmoil (such as the sharp drop in oil prices to negative levels in April). Therefore, the risk premium is expected to remain high in the short term.</u></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/f23c8585-0fc6-4829-99dd-15caf90a31fa.png\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=59623&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/4a0f1aab-3da3-4e82-a69e-fcb44d9c055d.jpg/lite","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=59623&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2033536600","content_text":"本文来自人民币交易与研究法国安盛投资管理公司在5月多元资产投资报告中表示，经济逐步复苏、以及非同寻常的财政和政策措施都在支撑着市场，尤其是投资级信用债。因此，该公司决定增持投资级信用债，同时将股票评级上调至中性。但其同时认为现在采取更积极的立场还为时过早，并提醒未来还存在一系列潜在的动荡隐患，因此预计短期内风险溢价仍将高企。安盛28日发表了5月多元资产投资报告，并指出其三点重要的投资信念：1. 乐观看待信用债：来自财政和货币当局的空前支持，应有助于缓解估值和流动性方面的担忧。2. 对股票持中性看法：全球经济在2020年上半年必然大幅下滑，对盈利产生巨大的负面影响，但经济增长在下半年回升的基础正在酝酿。3. 对政府债券久期持中性立场：货币政策显然为债券提供了支持，但空前的财政刺激和最终规模空前的供应应该会使政府债券收益率保持在当前区间。因此，安盛根据这些信念做出了相应的头寸安排，同时做多股票看涨期权Delta对冲以在可能的情况下保护投资组合。上个月安盛曾指出摆脱新冠危机需要满足三个条件：1) 强有力的央行支持；2) 大规模的全球财政宽松；3) 疫情迎来拐点，以便逐步解除封锁措施。安盛认为这些条件是用于回答两个重要问题的关键所在：1）经济将持续关闭多久，对GDP的影响如何? 2）政策刺激力度是否足以填补GDP的缺口? 经济和资产价格的最终结果取决于这每一个充满不确定性的因素的净总和。如果货币和财政刺激没有达到预期效果，那么经济和金融市场也会受到影响。首先，各国央行为遏制金融压力和支持经济所做的努力是前所未有的，因为它们进一步扩大了对非常规工具的使用。因此，尽管这一次的冲击超过了2008年大金融危机时期（GFC）的真正影响，但金融环境收紧程度似乎远低于GFC时期，这一切得益于这一次更加积极且及时的行动。为此，仅仅今年一年内，美联储资产负债表规模相对于经济规模可能会扩大一倍，年底时与GDP之比可能会逼近40%。在这场危机的关键时刻，美联储将能够进行表外贷款等非常规举动也为此贡献良多。鲍威尔所描述的美联储“有力、主动和积极”的行动最能概括这一点。其次，财政政策的应对措施是大规模的，包括反周期措施，如失业补贴、其他收入维持计划、减少税收以及政府对企业贷款的担保。在政策制定者做出这种财政回应后，可自由支配的财政宽松规模目前已接近全球GDP的5%，在发达经济体中则超过了GDP的6%。这在规模和时机上都超出了安盛和市场的预期，而且随着新的财政措施(尤其是在美国)的宣布，这一预期正在迅速增长。因此，这应会将美国联邦赤字推高至此前全球金融危机期间创纪录水平的两倍以上。这些赤字预测意味着，发达经济体的债务比率将出现创纪录的跃升，这将带来重要的中长期后果，尤其是对意大利等脆弱国家而言，它们的债务水平应该会超过GDP的160%。第三，疫情趋于平稳。撰写本文时，全球范围内新增死亡病例明显下降。在这种背景下，一些国家开始放松封锁措施。在美国，本周有几个州放松了社交疏离措施。其他州也将提供重新开放计划指引，并可能在5月初、最晚在6月开始重启经济。在欧洲，解除封锁措施的前景也在升温，一些国家公布了放松限制措施的时间表。安盛认为这些都为2020年下半年经济反弹奠定了基础。总之，经济的逐渐恢复，以及非同寻常的财政和政策措施，都在支撑着市场，对投资级信用债来说尤其如此。因此安盛在投资组合中增持投资级信用债，同时还将股票评级上调至中性。不过即使安盛在中期对风险资产持建设性态度，但是其认为现在采取更积极的立场还为时过早。事实上，对经济复苏持乐观情绪而产生的定价，使高风险资产更容易受到失望情绪的影响。更何况在一个有如此多变数的环境中，这次反弹的幅度是前所未有的。安盛提醒接下来存在一系列的潜在风险：包括第二轮感染潮、回归正常的进程缓慢、企业违约等导致的潜在的第二轮效应以及进一步的市场混乱（比如4月油价暴跌至负等等），因此预计短期内风险溢价仍将高企。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".DJI":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":929123739,"gmtCreate":1585263460821,"gmtModify":1705297605194,"author":{"id":"3455710583930825","authorId":"3455710583930825","name":"老虎发威了","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3455710583930825","idStr":"3455710583930825"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"niu","listText":"niu","text":"niu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/929123739","repostId":"2022900847","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":929123527,"gmtCreate":1585263406369,"gmtModify":1705297604695,"author":{"id":"3455710583930825","authorId":"3455710583930825","name":"老虎发威了","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3455710583930825","idStr":"3455710583930825"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"niu","listText":"niu","text":"niu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/929123527","repostId":"1139524455","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":965107987,"gmtCreate":1583927124949,"gmtModify":1705292203938,"author":{"id":"3455710583930825","authorId":"3455710583930825","name":"老虎发威了","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3455710583930825","idStr":"3455710583930825"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"⊙ω⊙","listText":"⊙ω⊙","text":"⊙ω⊙","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/965107987","repostId":"2018994540","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2018994540","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1583915700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2018994540?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-03-11 16:35","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Pan Xiangdong: A-shares are not necessarily a safe haven for global assets, but they are relatively resilient.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2018994540","media":"界面新闻","summary":"原标题：【专访】经济学家潘向东：A股并不一定是全球资产避风港，但相对比较抗跌\n图片来源：视觉中国\n　　记者 | 满乐\n　　在美股出现历史性熔断之后，全球股市都在经历“过山车”行情。\n　　3月10日晚间","content":"<p><div>Original title: [Interview] Economist Pan Xiangdong: A-shares are not necessarily a global asset safe haven, but they are relatively resilient. Image source: Visual China Reporter | Man Le After the historic circuit breaker in the US stock market, global stock markets are experiencing a \"rollercoaster\" run. On the evening of March 10, the U.S. stock market rebounded after a slump, with all three major indices recording gains of nearly 5%. The A-share market, unaffected by the widespread disaster in European and American stock markets, rose across the board the previous day, but experienced a collective correction on March 11. In just two days, the performance of global capital markets has been volatile. How should we view the current global...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-03-11/doc-iimxyqvz9629856.shtml\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pan Xiangdong: A-shares are not necessarily a safe haven for global assets, but they are relatively resilient.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPan Xiangdong: A-shares are not necessarily a safe haven for global assets, but they are relatively resilient.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-03-11 16:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Original title: [Interview] Economist Pan Xiangdong: A-shares are not necessarily a global asset safe haven, but they are relatively resilient. Image source: Visual China Reporter | Man Le After the historic circuit breaker in the US stock market, global stock markets are experiencing a \"rollercoaster\" run. On the evening of March 10, the U.S. stock market rebounded after a slump, with all three major indices recording gains of nearly 5%. The A-share market, unaffected by the widespread disaster in European and American stock markets, rose across the board the previous day, but experienced a collective correction on March 11. In just two days, the performance of global capital markets has been volatile. How should we view the current global...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-03-11/doc-iimxyqvz9629856.shtml\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-03-11/doc-iimxyqvz9629856.shtml\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b454a699c68cf681f9193222268c4c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-03-11/doc-iimxyqvz9629856.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2018994540","content_text":"原标题：【专访】经济学家潘向东：A股并不一定是全球资产避风港，但相对比较抗跌\n图片来源：视觉中国\n　　记者 | 满乐\n　　在美股出现历史性熔断之后，全球股市都在经历“过山车”行情。\n　　3月10日晚间，美国股市低迷之后出现爆发，三大指数均录得近5%的涨幅。而A股在前一日未受欧美股市哀鸿遍野影响，全线飘红，而在3月11日出现集体回调。\n　　短短两日，全球资本市场表现波诡云谲。如何看待当下的全球金融市场，中国股市又能否成为全球资金的“避风港”。3月11日，界面新闻就外界最关心的这些话题专访了新时代证券首席经济学家潘向东。\n　　以下为采访实录：\n　　意外降息未能安抚市场，美联储货币政策空间有限\n　　界面新闻：美股3月9日的熔断创下自2008年12月以来的最大跌幅，引发了全球股市巨震，您认为此次大跌的主要诱因是什么？是否有演变为金融危机的可能？\n　　潘向东：此次大跌的主要诱因是海外疫情加上沙特发起原油价格战导致油价史诗级暴跌，进而加剧市场对通货紧缩以及美国企业债务风险爆发的担忧。\n　　当前美国三大部门中，最脆弱的可能是企业部门，长期的低利率刺激了企业债务扩张，2019年三季度末美国企业杠杆率达到75.3%，创历史新高，低等级信用债的规模也大幅上升。而企业部门中，风险比较大的是能源部门，次贷危机后美国能源部门迅速扩张，原油产量持续飙升，2018年美国成为世界上最大石油生产国，油价下跌可能引发石油部门债务危机。是否演变为金融危机，取决于疫情对美国及全球经济的影响，以及对冲政策，这存在很大不确定性，投资者也有分歧，都在边走边看。\n　　界面新闻：美联储曾在月初突然宣布降息50个基点，市场对于这次意外的提前降息有一些负面的声音，您怎么看这次降息的原因？现在外界又对3月18日美联储再次降息的预期高涨，这会不会进一步扩大市场恐慌？\n　　潘向东：此前市场预期美联储会在3月17日-18日的议息会议期间降息，但没预期到美联储会提前降息。美联储提前超预期降息的目的有两个。\n　　首先，应对疫情对美国经济的冲击。虽然已发布的美国经济数据整体比较健康，但是数据发布存在滞后性，而且货币政策还要考虑到前瞻性。疫情全球蔓延，将对美国经济产生严重的负面影响。欧洲、日本、韩国、中国都是全球产业链重要的部分，这些地区遭受疫情肯定会影响产业链上游的美国。疫情还严重影响了美国和其他国家制造业之外的商务活动。疫情发展下去，美国本身的消费、投资也将受到影响，甚至可能引发企业债务危机。\n　　其次，救市、股市和实体经济通过居民和企业的资产负债表紧密联系在一起。美联储提前降息的一个很重要目的就是，防止美股持续暴跌引发系统性风险。此次降息前疫情已经导致标普500出现了“6个交易日内下跌超过10%”的历史最快回调。\n　　与此同时，美国选举“超级星期二”临近，投资者担忧桑德斯获胜，会对美国经济、政策连续性及市场都极为不利，因此，美联储选择在民主党选举前降息一定程度上可以对冲“桑德斯效应”对美股的冲击。\n　　3月3日意外降息并没有很好地安抚市场，降息后的几日美股仍大幅波动。这说明市场担忧疫情将会对美国以及全球经济产生严重影响。如果这样的话，年内美联储确实可能继续降息，但是和次贷危机时相比，美联储的货币政策空间已经不大，这也是市场忧虑的地方。\n　　A股与美股相关性大幅提升，但仍相对抗跌\n　　界面新闻记者：在美股经历“黑色星期一”后，3月10日的美股出现大涨，全球股市也都进行了反弹，对于这种情况您怎么看？这种反弹是否只是昙花一现？而A股真的会是全球资产避险港湾吗？\n　　潘向东：这主要是大跌后的技术性修复，当然中国领导人前往武汉，某种程度上是意味着中国抗疫取得阶段性成功，提振市场信心，同时特朗普也在考虑减税等刺激经济政策，以上因素共同导致全球股市反弹。\n　　实际上，在亚太市场开盘期间，美股的股指期货已经大涨并触发交易限制，是美股在引领全球股市。只能说中国疫情好转与复工走在了全球的前面，A股相对比较抗跌。疫情爆发以来，A股与美股的相关性大幅提升，美股暴跌时，北上资金大幅净流出A股，A股一样大跌，只是跌幅相对全球股市比较小，但并不一定是全球资产避风港。如果疫情真的导致全球经济衰退甚至爆发危机，A股也很难独善其身。\n　　科技股仍有长期投资价值\n　　界面新闻记者：3月10日的A股市场上，各类科技股反弹凶猛，但3月11日科技股又显露疲态，您如何看待科技板块的前景？\n　　潘向东：国内疫情逐渐得到控制，中国可能实施进一步的货币政策、财政政策、产业政策，从政策发力的方向来看，不太可能像2008年一样采用刺激政府投资和房地产的方式。经历了这么多年地产发展、地方举债搞基建的模式之后，风险在不断地积累，边际效用也已经衰减。现实的约束和经验的结果，使得政策的方向不得不更倾向于中长期的发展，更会强调经济转型升级和高质量的发展。\n　　从这次疫情来看，我国的城市公共基础设施仍然不足，例如，医疗资源，政策发力的方向可能会考虑这些。另外对于之前“十四五”规划就准备大力投资的领域，例如5G、人工智能等领域，也可能会考虑加快进程，科技股具有长期投资价值。\n　　界面新闻记者：您认为接下来一段时间，国内哪些资产值得配置？如果具体到A股，哪些板块的个股更值得持有？\n　　潘向东：海外疫情全面蔓延，而中国经过努力，国内疫情逐渐得到控制，企业也在有序地复工复产。和发达国家相比，中国的货币财政产业政策空间都比较大，中国可能实施进一步的货币政策、财政政策、产业政策，使中国可能相对好于海外经济体，包括A股在内的国内资本市场表现也好于海外市场。疫情对产业发展既是挑战也是机遇。一些传统行业受冲击较大，而智能制造、无人配送、在线消费、医疗健康等新兴产业展现出强大成长潜力，成长板块具有中长期投资机会。\n　　中国经济全年增速承压，一季度或现负增长\n　　界面新闻记者：包括美国在内，全球市场都受到了新冠肺炎疫情的影响。您认为此次疫情会改变全球或中国年内的经济形势吗？\n　　潘向东：疫情在全球全面蔓延，商务活动受限，加上资产价格大幅波动，可能和实体经济之间形成负反馈，全球经济面临较大挑战。对于中国来说，可能要接受需要接受今年更低一些的增速，短期更高一些的物价水平。\n　　一季度的GDP，1月算正常有增长，2月是“休克”，3月份即便按照市场的想法，达到95%以上都复工，但线下商业、线下娱乐、旅游业、餐饮业、航空铁路等，由于大家还心有余悸，预计还是会大幅受到影响。进出口毫无疑问仍然处于冲击之中，即便企业复工生产，买家方面也无法一时都恢复。更何况中国的很多加工业属于东亚产业链的，日韩受到疫情冲击，中间环节也会受到影响。所以3月份的经济很难去说会有增长。从这个角度来看，一季度经济应该是负增长，只是看下降到什么程度。\n　　既然一季度是这样，那么全年的经济增长要靠剩下的三个季度来完成，一季度的GDP占全年的权重是23%左右，即便未来三个季度保持6%、7%、8%的增速，乐观预计全年累计下来也就5%左右的增速。况且现在的经济环境，也不太支持通过刺激计划让GDP增速回到7%以上的水平。而且从目前疫情的影响来看，海外商务活动受限，国内的消费活动影响也不是一个季度可以修复，即便2季度国家推出强力刺激计划，投资也存在时滞，所以2季度经济活动能否恢复到去年四季度的水平，还充满了不确定。\n　　这与2008年的金融危机完全不一样，当时只是金融危机导致财富缩水，预期发生改变，导致随后的经济活动可能出现收缩，随着流动性紧张局面的改变，大家的预期随之改变。这次是因为疫情，大家的经济活动不得不收缩，只有疫情完全解除，大家才会慢慢恢复经济活动。\n　　此外，由于交通运输之前没有完全恢复，也由于企业复工的进程不一样，出现了一些原材料和生活用品价格上涨，所以一季度的CPI增速预计也不好看，大概率会到6%左右。但这只是短期的，随着3月中旬生产企业的全部复工和湖北以外地区疫情警报的解除，供给还是过剩的，价格增速也会随之回落。\n责任编辑：王帅","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QID":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SDOW":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}