SPY Faces Institutional Risk as Fed Credibility Falters
The Most Dangerous Risk Isn’t Inflation this week. It’s Legitimacy.Jerome Powell is facing criminal investigation.Pause.This isn’t about guilt.It’s about credibility.Central banks don’t run on balance sheets.They run on trust.And once that cracks, markets reprice fast.Here’s why this is really bad for $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ (back at 690) so far:1) Policy paralysis at the worst possible momentAn investigated Fed Chair becomes cautious, boxed in, defensive.Markets don’t fear hikes or cuts they fear indecision.Uncertainty widens risk premiums across equities instantly.2) A divided Fed becomes an unstable FedPolitical and legal pressure fractures consensus.A fractured FOMC means mixed signals, conflicting guidance, and volatile reactions to
The bullish move is intact, but JPOW's criminal investigation will push it back.Make sure to check chart below for key levels for $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ just jumped 10%.SPY is back at 690.And this week is loaded with landmines.CPI on Tuesday.PPI on Wednesday.OPEX on Friday.This is not a coincidence.Here’s what the data is quietly screaming:• Core CPI is still running ~3% YoY, 50% above the Fed’s target sticky, not solved.• PPI has fallen to ~2% YoY, down from over 11% in 2022 deflation at the producer level is real.• Historically, when PPI drops faster than CPI, corporate margins compress and earnings volatility spikes within 1–2 quarters.That gap matters.It tells y
Position Sizing > Going Heavy: Consistency Comes from Process
One thing I want to be very clear about when it comes to trading and sizing:I never think in terms of going “heavy.”I have defined position sizes, and that’s it.I have a standard full-size position that I use for A+ setups, the kind of setups that show up maybe 1–3 times a day. That size is not “heavy” to me. It’s normal. It’s what my system is built for.From there: • B setups = light size • C setups = ultra-light sizeI don’t increase size beyond what I’m already comfortable with.The moment you think “I’m going heavy,” it usually means you’re sizing beyond your emotional or risk tolerance and that’s where problems start.I want every trade to be: • Predefined • Planned • Within my comfort zone for risk and stop lossThat way, nothing can happen that I’m not prepared for and I don’t feel emot
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ trend just snapped and the market knows what’s coming next.Make sure to check out chart below to see my key levels of support and resistance!SPY didn’t drift lower. It rejected.From $692 → $688, the uptrend failed.$688 is now the premarket low.$690 has flipped from support to resistance.There is a wall of sellers.Jobless claims came in flat.But markets don’t trade today’s data they trade tomorrow’s risk.And tomorrow is labor.Here are the numbers most traders ignore:• Every major bear market since WWII began after unemployment started rising, not before.• When unemployment rises 0.5% from its low US has never avoided recession.• The average SPY bear market sees a 34% drawdown, and the first leg usually starts while
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ just broke structure and now above all time highs.What does this mean?The downtrend is gone. Two days of sustained upside.Here’s what you need to know:This market isn’t moving on stories. It’s moving on levels and reactions.Make sure to check my chart for key levels to watch out for (areas to buy at)Resistance: $692.30 the ceiling everyone is watchingMajor support: $690–$691 institutional demand zoneIf that fails, the air pocket opens to $688Now the real risk.Today’s data isn’t noise:ADP employment just came in –41K vs +50K expectedJOLTS and ISM at 10am will decide if this rally is trusted or fadedTranslation:If SPY holds above $685 and $680, the market is signaling it’s not afraid of labor weakness.If it loses tho
I don’t “guess” the market.I map it.Every year, I hand-draw a roadmap of how the market is likely to move — based on📆 seasonality,🔁 3–7 year market cycles, and🧠 how institutions actually position risk.Swipe through these photos.• This was 2023• This was 2024 into 2025• This was Nov 2024 → April 2025👉 Every single thing played out.Not because I’m psychic —but because markets repeat when you know what to watch and when to act.This is how I’ve been able to:•Catch massive upside moves•Hedge properly before pullbacks•Turn small positions into outsized % gains•Stay calm while others panicAnd tonight, I’m doing it again.🧭 In tonight’s market review, I’m walking through:•How I build my yearly roadmap•Where we are right now in the cycle•How I’m positioning trades going into the new year•What I’m bu
In 2026, you want to make $1,000,000+ but don't have any skill or $0. This is perfect for you.All it takes is 90 days of focus. Wake up early and do 1 thing only. The one thing that will change your life forever. Don't do anything else.DON'T THINK ABOUT IT, don't plan it, don't go on scroll on tiktok to waste time. Just wake up and go to the gym without thinking, start making videos for your business, calling your customers. DO SOMETHING, take action.No matter how small the action is, DO IT. no matter how sick or lazy you are just do it. You'll find that results will start to pile up as soon as you are consistent and show up everyday.BUILD STRONG HABITS but also focus on erasing the bad ones. For example, if you want to master daytrading, wait 30 minutes after the market opens before you t
Kill the Hype: 5 Prompts That Filter 95% of Stocks
A few years ago, I turned $350 to almost $1,000,000+ in 9 months.Today, you don't need my trading strategy.Use these 5 CHATGPT prompts and see the magic: 1. Core Business & Fundamentals“Analyze this stock as a professional analyst. Cover business model, financial strength, unit economics, moat, management quality, and long-term upside. Be concise and structured. Stock: [name].”2. Technical Structure & Market Behavior“Break down this stock’s technical setup using trend, momentum, support/resistance, volume, and key indicators. Describe possible scenarios, make predictions. Chart [paste].”3. Strategy Stress Test“Evaluate how this stock performs under different strategies (intraday, swing, position) across bull, bear, and sideways markets. Focus on behavior, risk, and expectancy. Stra
The Market Trap: Watching SPY While Energy Decides Everything
Everyone is watching rates, GDP, GOLD and the YEN this week. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ needs to hold above $675 this week to go higher towards $690 OR we can pull back under towards $670 to form DOJI on monthly chart. (check out chart to study it)Almost no one is watching what actually breaks markets.That’s the trap.This week alone:• US GDP drops Tuesday at 8:30am, a delayed report with market moving power• SPY is sitting on a knife edge between $675–$690, with an expected move as low as $673• Markets are open reduced hours and no trading Thursday, creating liquidity air pockets• Commodities just hit record highs: gold above $2,165, copper and silver at all-time highsBut zoom out.While traders argue over 5–10 SPY points, the real pressure i
Advanced trading tip:A lot of trading mistakes is due to having too HIGH expectations for big results. This causes stress, anxiety, poor judgement and overconfidence.This can happen in 2 ways:1. You lost money now you want to make it back. *Well, then you start to force trades, revenge trade, take big positions and make a bunch of other mistakes.2. You made a lot of money now you think you are unstoppable.* You got lucky a few times so now you think you don't need to manage risk, increase position size and double your money.🔑Takeaway* Stay focused and keep calm at all times.* Continue improving trading system and process* In the middle of trading don't change your process only do it afterwards when you review.* Consistency is what you are striving for as a trader nothing else (yes, nothing