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Asia Week Ahead: PMI Prints; Inflation Reports; India's Rate Decision

MT Newswires10-05

For the week ahead in Asia, business activity, inflation prints, and retail sales numbers will provide insight into the region's economic health.

The week starts with PMI reports from Japan and Singapore on Monday and India and Hong Kong on Tuesday. Thailand and the Philippines will also post inflation numbers.

Minutes from the U.S. Fed's September meeting, where rates were increased, will be closely watched. Investors will look for signs of further potential hikes, with analysts at ING expecting the next rate increase to take place in December.

India's interest rate decision will also be in focus the same day.

The week will close with trade numbers from Japan and Taiwan, alongside retail sales from Indonesia and Malaysia.

Elsewhere, China will hold trade talks with the European Union starting Thursday in a bid to prevent trade barriers.

Here's what to expect in the week ahead.

MONDAY, Oct. 5

Business activity across Japan's private sector weakened in September, with the final au Jibun Bank Japan Composite Output Index, compiled by S&P Global, reaching 52.3 from 53.5 in August.

Activity across the country's services sector also expanded at a softer rate, with the services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) coming in at 51.3.

Consumer confidence worsened slightly, with the sentiment index inching down to 35.4 from 35.5 the previous month.

Elsewhere, operating conditions across Singapore's private sector expanded at a weaker pace, with the headline S&P Global Singapore PMI coming in at 58.1.

Retail sales rose 0.7% year over year to SG$4.5 billion in August, after a 1.3% increase in July.

TUESDAY, Oct. 6

The Philippines' inflation is expected to rise to 6.8% year over year in September from 6.1% in August amid fuel and El Niño-related food price pressures, ING said.

ANZ Research's Kausani Basak projects inflation to reach 7%, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) noted.

India and Hong Kong will see respective HSBC and S&P Global PMI numbers, while Thailand's inflation and consumer confidence data will also land.

Thailand's CPI is projected to come in at 3.2% by DBS economists, up from 2.53% previously, the WSJ said.

Investors will also search Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech for clues on potential upcoming rate hikes.

WEDNESDAY, Oct. 7

Economists at ING expect the Reserve Bank of India to hike its policy rate by 0.25% to 5.5%.

The move may come for the central bank to prevent inflation expectations from de-anchoring.

Shilan Shah, an economist at Capital Economics, also believes a rate increase is supported by economic numbers but the decision is expected to be close, the WSJ reported.

Elsewhere, Taiwan's inflation is projected to rise to 2.4% from 2.04% previously, according to market consensus forecast data compiled by ING.

Japan Reuters Tankan Index figures will arrive.

THURSDAY, Oct. 8

Japan's trade deficit is likely to widen to 753.1 billion yen from 399.9 billion yen, ING said citing market forecasts.

Taiwan's trade surplus is projected to shrink to $19.2 billion from $22.3 billion, with export growth increasing to 47.3% and import growth easing down to 44%.

FRIDAY, Oct. 9

Indonesia and Malaysia's retail sales will land for August, with the latter's industrial output also expected.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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