The timing of an Nvidia product ramp may require a balancing act for Micron investors, as some estimated revenue shifts toward next year instead of this year
Micron's stock was down fractionally Friday morning.
As investors prepare for Micron Technology's latest quarterly results, one analyst says that more compelling opportunities lie further ahead.
Micron's (MU) revenue outlook for the November quarter should be enough to please investors, according to Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini, but it won't contain the full benefits of an Nvidia (NVDA) chip launch.
As Micron gets ready to ramp its next-generation high-bandwidth-memory technology, known as HBM4, Hosseini said investors could be due for "a teeter-totter quarter" when the company reports results on Wednesday. That refers to the balancing act that's required as estimates shift between different quarters to reflect how the Nvidia opportunity is more linked to next year.
With Nvidia finalizing its Rubin artificial-intelligence chip platform in the coming months, Hosseini said the product ramp, which is when production and shipments scale up, will likely move into April. He noted that current lead times for Nvidia's most advanced Blackwell chips are over 30 weeks, and that average selling prices for those chips are up more than 30% sequentially.
"As such, we expect the Rubin platform to be a more meaningful demand driver for HBM4 in 2027," he said. In the second half of this year, the revenue impact will be "minimal," he added.
When HBM4 does ramp, Hosseini said, average selling prices will be more than 50% higher than for the current HBM3e offering, setting Micron and other key suppliers up "to benefit handsomely."
Hosseini said he was moving "several billion dollars" of his revenue estimates from the first half of Micron's fiscal 2027, which kicked off earlier this month, into the latter end.
"All in all, we expect memory fundamentals to remain healthy," he said, adding that average selling-price trends should be better than what is currently being calculated into Wall Street's consensus.
For 2027, Hosseini is modeling for Micron's earnings per share to reach around $200, which he noted is above the consensus for $165.
Micron shares were down fractionally Friday morning but are up 277% so far this year.
-Britney Nguyen
