Stocks sprinted out the gate to start August, posting their best week since April. The S&P 500 index rose 3.6% to close at a record high, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 5.2%.
Optimism over a short-term truce between Iran and the U.S. sent oil prices tumbling, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, down 5% last week. Lower oil prices and a weaker-than-expected jobs report helped push yields on the 10-year Treasury note down about 10 basis points, further cementing investors' willingness to move into risker assets.
The drop in Treasury yields will be put to the test this week when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index on Wednesday. The BLS will also report wholesale inflation on Thursday, while the Census Bureau will release retail sales statistics on Friday.
The bulk of earnings season is over, with nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported. Corporate America has once again passed with flying colors, which is reflected in record equity prices.
Ten more index constituents are set to announce results this week, including Simon Property Group on Monday, Super Micro Computer on Tuesday, Cisco Systems on Wednesday, and Applied Materials and Tapestry on Thursday.
Monday 8/10
AST SpaceMobile, Inc., Barrick Mining, Ferguson Enterprises, Rocket Lab, and Simon Property Group announce earnings.
Tuesday 8/11
Cardinal Health, Cava Group, CoreWeave, Lumentum, On Holding, Super Micro Computer, and Venture Global report quarterly results.
The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for July. Expectations are for a 97.8 reading, slightly higher than the June figure, and just shy of the 52-year average of 98.
The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for July. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.05 million homes sold, slightly fewer than in June. The median price of an existing home hit a record high of $440,600 in June.
Wednesday 8/12
Amcor, Brinker International, Cerebras Systems, Cisco Systems, Coherent, Nebius Group, Performance Food Group, StubHub Holdings, and Trimble release earnings.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for July. Economists forecast 3.4% year-over-year increase, one-tenth of a percentage point less than in June. The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 2.5%, compared to 2.6% previously. The core CPI was last at or below the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target in March of 2021.
Thursday 8/13
Applied Materials, Brookfield, Tapestry, and Yeti Holdings announce quarterly results.
The BLS releases the producer price index for July. The consensus call is for a 4.9% jump from a year earlier, while the core PPI is seen rising 4.1%. This compares with increases of 5.5% and 4.7%, respectively, in June.
Friday 8/14
The Census Bureau reports retail and food-service sales for July. The Consensus call is for 0.2% month-over-month increase, matching the June figure.
The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment index for August. Consensus estimate is for a 54.1 reading, about one point lower than in July. In July, consumer expected year-ahead inflation of 4.2%.
Eurozone
The data calendar will be thin in the coming week. The week's highlight will likely be the second estimate of eurozone GDP data for the second quarter on Friday, which will provide insight into the growth impact of the Middle East war.
Final CPI inflation data for July are due from Germany and Italy on Wednesday, Spain on Thursday and France on Friday.
Eurozone industrial production figures for June will be released on Thursday, followed by June trade numbers and second-quarter employment figures on Friday. Spain will release industrial orders and turnover data for June on Friday.
Germany will auction October 2031-dated Bobl on Tuesday as well as May 2038- and August 2043-dated Bunds on Wednesday. Finland will hold a bond auction on Tuesday.
U.K.
The main data event in the U.K. is the release of the first estimate of second-quarter GDP data due on Thursday. The data are likely to show the impact of the Middle East war on the U.K. economy.
"We expect a fairly marked slowdown from the strong 0.6% quarterly print in the first quarter, not least due to the disruption caused by the Iran conflict," Ebury head of market strategy Matthew Ryan said in a note.
Industrial production and trade data for June will also be released on Thursday.
The BRC-KPMG retail sales monitor for July, a measure of the health of the U.K. retail industry and consumer demand, will be published on Tuesday.
The RICS U.K. house-price survey for July is due to be released Thursday.
The U.K. will sell September 2035 index-linked gilts at an auction on Wednesday.
Scandinavia
Norway's central bank announces a policy decision Thursday, where it is expected to leave its main policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, though investors will watch for any signals on future moves.
Lower-than-expected inflation since Norges Bank's June meeting and the real economy developing in line with expectations argues in favor of rates staying on hold, HSBC economists said.
Ahead of the decision, Norway inflation data for July are due Monday. Swedish final July inflation figures are released Thursday.
Sweden will conduct a bond auction on Wednesday.
Japan
Japan's key data releases include the June current-account balance on Monday and July producer-price inflation on Thursday, ING chief economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, said in a report. The consensus forecast is for producer prices to rise 7.5% from a year earlier, accelerating from June's 7.1% increase. This would reflect continued price pressures from higher energy and import costs, compounded by a weaker yen, Song said.
The Bank of Japan will release the Summary of Opinions from its July 30-31 meeting on Monday. The central bank voted 8-1 to keep rates unchanged at the meeting. In his postmeeting news conference, Gov. Kazuo Ueda expressed growing concern about upside inflation risks and raised the possibility of accelerating the rate-increase cycle. Investors will examine the summary for further clues about the timing of future increases.
The BOJ is likely to raise its policy rate in October, earlier than Natixis CIB Research's previous forecast for a December increase, two members of its research team said. They cited Ueda's remarks and the coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen on July 31, which they said could allow the BOJ to raise rates sooner.
The BOJ is scheduled to buy multiple segments of the Japanese government-bond market on Thursday, including debt with maturities of more than three years and up to five years, as well as debt maturing in more than 25 years. The purchases could support the domestic bond market.
Japan's Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction about 250 billion yen of 10-year inflation-indexed government bonds on Wednesday. The bonds will reopen the May 2026 issue, according to the ministry. The auction could attract investors seeking protection against elevated inflation.
