TradingKey - SpaceX (SPCXThe company will release its second-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on August 4, Eastern Time. This will be the company's first financial report since its IPO in June.
SpaceX issued shares at $135 per share, rising to $225.64 after listing, but had fallen to $108.37 by July 31, a drop of more than 50% from its peak and a new low since its listing.
Since the stock price has fallen below the issue price, and a large number of restricted shares will be released from lock-up immediately afterward,Morgan Stanley（MSIt is believed that SpaceX is facing its most severe market test since its IPO. However, the bank maintained its "overweight" rating on SpaceX and maintained its target price at $300, believing that the market still significantly underestimates the long-term value of the company's AI business.
Can the first earnings report prove that growth is still accelerating?
Wall Street currently expects SpaceX to report second-quarter revenue of $6.88 billion and a net loss of $0.23 per share. Morgan Stanley's forecast is slightly cautious, expecting revenue of approximately $6.75 billion and an adjusted loss of $0.35 per share. In contrast, the company reported first-quarter revenue of $4.69 billion and a loss of $1.27 per share.
The market expects AI and Starlink to be the main sources of growth this quarter. Among them, AI business revenue is expected to increase from $818 million in the first quarter to $2.18 billion, while launch service revenue is expected to grow by nearly 35% to $835 million. Connectivity revenue, including Starlink, is expected to reach $3.83 billion, a 17.5% increase from the first quarter.
Starlink remains SpaceX's most stable revenue base, with the company reaching 10.3 million consumer users in the first quarter and its business covering personal broadband, aviation communications, mobile networks, and government services. Morgan Stanley expects Starlink consumer users to grow to 12 million in the second quarter, with an average monthly revenue of approximately $65.50 per user.
At the same time, Musk has recently released more optimistic long-term signals.
On August 1, he replied to a post on the X platform about SpaceX's growth potential, saying, "Few people understand this." The post predicts that with the accelerated expansion of AI computing infrastructure and Starlink, SpaceX may add equivalent to [amount missing] over the next 12 to 24 months.TeslaThe current annualized revenue is approximately $95 billion to $104 billion.
The $300 target price mainly bets on the AI business.
Despite the sharp decline in SpaceX's stock price, Morgan Stanley maintained its target price of $300. Based on the current stock price, this means a potential upside of over 170%.
In the bank's valuation model, the traditional space business is valued at approximately $8 per share, the Starlink and network connectivity business at approximately $128, the X platform and Grok at approximately $12, and the enterprise AI business at $152. In other words, AI contributes more than half of SpaceX's target valuation, while the rocket launch business accounts for only a small portion.
This valuation reflects that Morgan Stanley is truly betting on SpaceX's future expansion in enterprise AI, data centers, and orbital computing, rather than its current launch revenue. The long-term logic is that if Starship can achieve low cost, high frequency, and full reusability, SpaceX may gradually deploy computing facilities to orbit and use Starlink to provide data connectivity.
However, this target price is based on several long-term assumptions, including the maturity of Starship technology, continued growth in AI demand, and the commercialization of orbital data centers. Any project delays, cost overruns, or increased financing needs could lead to a significant downward revision in valuations.
The release of hundreds of billions of dollars in restricted shares amplifies short-term risks.
Two days after the release of its financial report, SpaceX will also see its first round of restricted shares being released from lock-up after its IPO. It is expected that up to approximately 911.5 million shares will be available for trading starting August 6, corresponding to a market capitalization of approximately $100 billion based on recent prices. Qualifying for trading does not mean that all shares will be sold, but early investors and employees have higher book gains, and the market is concerned that profit-taking will exacerbate stock price volatility.
With both financial reports and the lifting of lock-up restrictions coming at the same time, simply meeting market expectations may not be enough to stabilize the stock price. SpaceX needs to prove to investors that Starlink is still growing rapidly, its AI investment has a clear monetization path, and Starship's progress is not significantly off plan.
Discussions about a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla may also have appeared in the conference call, but there is currently a lack of clear evidence for such information. Compared to merger rumors, management's outlook on cash flow, capital expenditures, and its three core businesses is the key to determining whether SpaceX's stock price can escape its post-IPO slump.
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