Equities slumped again last week as the Iran war completed its second full week. All three major indexes fell more than 1% for a second consecutive week as there were scant signs of de-escalation.
Barely any tanker traffic has been transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries 20% of the world's oil. Brent crude prices have risen more than 40% since the war began, stoking fears of inflation, since petroleum factors into the prices of most everything, from manufacturing to transportation.
This environment complicates the task for the Federal Open Market Committee, which will meet this week and announce its monetary-policy decision on Wednesday. The shockingly weak February jobs report would typically increase bets on a lower federal-funds rate, but the potential inflationary effects of the war have so far offset concerns about a sagging labor market.
Aside from the FOMC meeting, this week will also bring the producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, on Wednesday, and a housing update from the Census Bureau, on Thursday.
In company news, Nvidia AI conferene, GTC 2026, will run from Monday through Thursday. A sparse earnings calendar has Lululemon Athletica reporting results on Tuesday, followed by Micron Technology on Wednesday and FedEx on Thursday.
Monday 3/16
Dollar Tree reports fourth-quarter fiscal-2026 results.
The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 37 reading, one point more than in February. Readings below 50 indicate that homebuilders have a dour outlook for the single-family housing market in the near term.
Nvidia GTC 2026, the global artificial-intelligence conference, kicks off with a keynote address from CEO Jensen Huang. The confab is being held in San Jose, Calif., and runs through Thursday.
Tuesday 3/17
Docusign, Lululemon Athletica, and Oklo release earnings.
The National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales for February. Economists forecast a 0.5% month-over-month decline, following a 0.8% drop in January.
Wednesday 3/18
Five Below, General Mills, Jabil, Micron Technology, SailPoint, and Williams-Sonoma report quarterly results.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for February. The consensus call is for a 0.3% month-over-month rise. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is also expected to increase 0.3%. This compares with jumps of 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively, in January.
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at 3.5% -- 3.75%. The FOMC also releases its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. The Fed is in a very tricky position, with the most recent jobs report showing a decline of 92,000 in nonfarm payrolls. Meanwhile, oil is up by more than a third since the start of the Iran war, stoking fears of future inflation. On top of that, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May, while his potential successor, Kevin Warsh, is still awaiting Senate confirmation. Traders are leaning toward the inflation side of the Fed's dual mandate, pricing in about one quarter-point rate cut by the end of the year, down from two to three at the end of February.
Thursday 3/19
Accenture, Alibaba Group Holding, Darden Restaurants, FedEx, Planet Labs, and Signet Jewelers announce earnings.
The Census Bureau reports new residential sales data for January. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 725,000 new single-family homes sold, 20,000 fewer than in December. The median sales price of a new home was $414,000 at the end of last year, a 2% decline from December 2024.
Friday 3/20
XPeng releases fourth-quarter fiscal-2025 results.
