MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Manufacturing PMI data for eurozone, Germany, France, U.K., Italy; U.K. Nationwide house price index, money and credit; trading updates for Smith & Nephew, Bunzl, Galp Energia
Opening Call:
U.S. and European stock futures traded lower as the Middle East conflict continued. Asian stock benchmarks fell; the dollar gained; Treasury yields rose; oil and gold jumped.
Equities:
Stock futures fell early Monday as the U.S. and Israeli militaries continued to strike Iran, triggering a retreat from risk assets in global markets. The Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, responding to an attack from the Iranian-backed group and widening the conflict in the Middle East.
Geopolitical shocks tend to produce sharp moves in oil and safe havens that often fade quickly, but the Iran attacks may be different, said Josh Gilbert at eToro. Retaliation has been more aggressive and wide-ranging, and until there is clear de-escalation, investors should expect high volatility.
Forex:
The U.S. dollar may retain a better bid on "cash is king" narratives, and be further supported by "greater EUR (and most other non-oil currencies) disadvantage from accentuated vulnerabilities to Middle East geo-political risks and more compromised energy security," said Mizuho Securities' Vishnu Varathan.
Bonds:
How Treasurys behave in the coming days will signal whether investors continue to see them as "one of the most reliable shield against geopolitical volatility," said Julius Baer's Dario Messi.
"Looking beyond the immediate geopolitical shock, which may ultimately prove to have only a temporary impact on markets, we see value in exposure to the intermediate part of the yield curve (5-10 years) with limited or no credit risk," he said.
Energy:
The escalating Middle East conflict could raise oil prices significantly, ING's Warren Patterson said. "While it is still very early days and the situation is developing at a fast pace, it does not appear that this military action will be quick and short-lived," he said.
"ICE Brent could trade into the region of $80-$90/bbl immediately, with risks for further strength towards $100/bbl and ultimately $140/bbl (worst-case scenario), if we are to see significant and extended oil supply disruptions," Patterson added.
Metals:
Gold and silver climbed in Asia as military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran spurred safe-haven demand.
"Gold remains the clearest barometer of investor fear," eToro's Josh Gilbert said. The precious metal surged past $5,350/oz this morning and is now up around 22% year to date, reinforcing its role as the go-to safe haven when geopolitical risks escalate, he said.
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Citi maintains a constructive short-term view on aluminum, and keeps its 0-3 month price target at $3,400/ton. "Geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz affect the timing rather than the magnitude of this trajectory," the bank said.
"Only a prolonged and effective closure of the Strait would justify embedding a materially higher risk premium into both regional premia and the LME forward curve structure."
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Middle East Conflict Sparks Surge in Oil Prices
Oil prices surged Sunday after the U.S. and Israel traded deadly blows with Iran across the Middle East, leaving Wall Street bracing for the economic fallout of an extended regional war.
Benchmark U.S. crude futures rose as much as 11%, trading as high as $75 a barrel, before retreating slightly. Brent futures, the global price gauge, jumped 8%, to roughly $79 a barrel. Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell around 1%. Changes in stock futures don't always reflect market moves after the opening bell.
Iran Is Shooting at Some of the World's Busiest Airports
Iran has systematically targeted its Arab neighbors' airports since the start of its retaliatory strikes for U.S. and Israeli attacks, hitting commercial hubs as part of a strategy to build pressure to end the war.
With its survival at stake, the Iranian regime is taking aim at the globally connected nerve center of its Gulf neighbors, largely shutting down air travel in a region that depends on it as an economic lifeline. Those countries use their airports for much of their food imports and to fly in their largely expatriate workforces.
The Big Bet on European Defense Stocks Is Getting Expensive
Forget AI. The big trade last year was to buy the idea that Europe has finally woken up to the need to spend big to defend itself.
But, after the best year ever for German defense stocks, investors now face the question of whether the trade is already over.
Ukraine Depended on Western Weaponry. Now That Script Has Flipped.
MUNICH-When the full-scale Russian invasion began, Western defense manufacturers rushed their modern weaponry into Ukraine, helping Kyiv drive back a much more powerful foe.
Four years on, the flow of battle-tested technology is going the other way.
All the Ways Netflix Actually Won Even Though It Lost Warner
Netflix investors are getting a happy ending, just not the one the company's management first envisioned.
The streaming giant's formal exit from the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery has cheered its own shareholders, sending the stock up nearly 14% on Friday. The stock has languished since Netflix announced its deal to acquire Warner in early December, and it was trending down even before that simply on rumors that it might make a play for the storied Hollywood studio. Before Friday, Netflix had shed about a third of its market value since The Wall Street Journal reported in mid-September that Paramount was preparing a bid for Warner.
Nvidia Plans New Chip to Speed AI Processing, Shake Up Computing Market
Nvidia plans to unveil a new processor specially tailored to help OpenAI and other customers build faster, more efficient tools, a major shake-up to its business that is poised to reset the AI race.
The company is designing a new system for "inference" computing, a form of processing that allows AI models to respond to queries, according to people familiar with the plans. The new platform, set to be revealed at Nvidia's GTC developer conference in San Jose next month, will incorporate a chip designed by the startup Groq, the people said.
Trump Administration Shuns Anthropic, Embraces OpenAI in Clash Over Guardrails
The federal government will stop working with Anthropic and designate the artificial intelligence company a supply-chain risk, a dramatic escalation of the government's clash with the company over how its technology can be used by the Pentagon.
While Anthropic's relationship with the administration hit a new low, rival OpenAI said late Friday that it reached an agreement with the Defense Department to have its models used in classified settings, until recently a status only held by Anthropic.
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Expected Major Events for Monday
00:01/UK: Feb CBI Growth Indicator Survey
01:01/IRL: Feb Ireland Manufacturing PMI
05:30/NED: Jan Retail turnover
06:00/NED: Feb Netherlands Manufacturing PMI
07:00/DEN: Jan Retail Sales Index
07:00/TUR: 4Q GDP
07:00/GER: Jan Retail Trade
07:00/UK: Feb Nationwide House Price Index
07:00/NOR: 4Q Credit Indicator C3
07:00/TUR: Feb Turkey Manufacturing PMI
07:30/SWI: Jan Retail Sales
07:30/HUN: Jan Trade Balance
08:00/POL: Feb Poland Manufacturing PMI
08:15/SPN: Feb Spain Manufacturing PMI
08:30/CZE: Feb Czech Republic Manufacturing PMI
08:30/SWI: Feb procure.ch Purchasing Managers' Index
08:30/EU: Feb EuroCOIN indicator of euro area economic activity
08:45/ITA: Feb Italy Manufacturing PMI
08:50/FRA: Feb France Manufacturing PMI
08:55/GER: Feb Germany Manufacturing PMI
09:00/POL: 4Q GDP
09:00/EU: Feb Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
09:00/ITA: Annual GDP yearly data
09:00/ITA: Annual General Government Debt
09:00/GRE: Feb Greece Manufacturing PMI
09:30/UK: Jan Monetary & Financial Statistics
09:30/UK: Jan Money and Credit - Lending to Individuals, Lending to Businesses, Broad Money and Credit
09:30/UK: Jan Bank of England effective interest rates
09:30/UK: Feb S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI
09:30/UK: 4Q Household Finance Review
10:00/CYP: 4Q GDP
10:00/CYP: Jan Retail trade
11:00/POR: Jan Retail trade
11:00/POR: Jan Industrial production index
15:59/UKR: Jan Industrial Production
16:59/AUT: Feb Unemployment figures
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 02, 2026 00:02 ET (05:02 GMT)
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