Adds Goldman gas price view and JP Morgan outlook
March 2 (Reuters) - Analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated over the coming days while markets focus on the impact of escalating Middle East conflict on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for more than 20% of global oil.
Citi sees Brent crude trading between $80 and $90 a barrel over the coming week at least, they said in a note
Prices are expected to pull back to $70 a barrel on de-escalation, Citi said.
Goldman Sachs estimates an $18 per barrel real-time risk premium in crude prices, the bank said in a note on Sunday. It expects this to moderate to a $4 premium if only 50% of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are halted for a month.
In a scenario where flows halt for one month, it is likely that the TTF and JKM benchmark gas prices could climb by 130% to approach 74 euros per megawatt hour ($25/mmBtu), Goldman said.
Wood Mackenzie said that oil prices could exceed $100 a barrel if tanker flows through the strait are not restored quickly.
"The disruption creates a dual supply shock: not only are current exports through the Strait halted, but OPEC+ additional volumes and ultimately most of OPEC’s spare capacity - typically a key lever for balancing the global oil market - are inaccessible while the waterway remains closed," WoodMac analysts said in a note.
OPEC+ has agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) for April.
Societe Generale analysts said on Monday that the most likely scenario for oil prices is a short-lived spike followed by a partial retracement as markets judge supply continuity to be credible
Bernstein raised its 2026 Brent oil price assumption from $65 to $80 a barrel, but sees prices reaching $120-$150 in an extreme case of prolonged conflict.
JPMorgan says crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have slumped to about 4 million bpd from the usual 16 million, with flows limited to Iranian barrels as tanker traffic dries up
Gulf producers have storage and tanker capacity to cover 25 days of stranded supply, JPMorgan estimates.
The bank said that a 3–4 week restriction through the Strait of Hormuz could force Gulf Cooperation Council output shut‑ins and lift Brent crude above $100 a barrel.
(Reporting by Kavya BalaramanAdditional reporting by Ishaan Arora, Pablo Sinha and Anmol ChoubeyEditing by Sonali Paul and David Goodman)
((Kavya.Balaraman@thomsonreuters.com;))
