By Liz Moyer and Janet H. Cho
Crude oil futures spiked and stock futures sank to open trading late Sunday as the conflict in the Middle East weighed on global markets.
Oil futures jumped 11%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 500 points, or 1.3%. Nasdaq futures lost 1%.
Iran appears to have clamped down on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping corridor for oil supplies and other trade, in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks, something that was sure to boost the price of crude.
T.D. Securities strategists led by Rich Kelly expect markets to react more broadly to this weekend's attacks than to other recent geopolitical events. "This is due to the broader nature of Iran's retaliatory strikes, heightened risks to disruptions to energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz, and the risks of the conflict and economic impacts broadening and questions around succession in Iranian leadership," they wrote. Statements from President Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu suggest that they plan to increase attacks in coming days, they added.
Citi Research analysts also expect a "significant impact on global markets," including a spike in oil prices potentially reaching "low to mid-$80s per barrel, driven by the U.S./Israel attack on Iran and subsequent regional hostilities."
"While Iran's constitutional succession plans suggest the regime may remain stable enough to prolong the conflict, any sustained disruption would raise inflation risks across EM, pressure currencies with weak FX reserves, and challenge GCC economies now facing direct missile strikes, airspace closures and shipping interruptions," they wrote. Although geopolitical oil shocks have historically faded quickly, "if this episode lasts longer, markets may see extended volatility across commodities, G10 FX flows, GCC credit weakness, and renewed labour and inflation pressures in Israel."
Crude was already rising this year. Brent crude, the international standard, ended last week just under $73 a barrel, up 19% so far this year and up 23% from its 52-week low in December, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, ended last week at about $67 a barrel, up 16% this year and 21% from the 52-week low.
Global stock markets, and U.S. equities, are also expected to react to the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, which resulted in the death of that country's leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Stocks ended last week on a down note, before President Donald Trump announced the military attacks on Iran early Saturday morning Eastern time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 522 points, or 1.1%, on Friday. The index rallied off its lows of the day, down more than 800 points, to close up slightly in February.
The Dow ended the month up 0.17%, up for the 10th straight month in the longest winning streak since January 2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow is up 1.9% so far this year.
The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9%. The S&P 500 fell o.87% last month, but is up 0.49% this year. The Nasdaq ended last month down 3.38%, and is down 2.47% this year.
Write to Liz Moyer at liz.moyer@barrons.com and Janet H. Cho at janet.cho@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 01, 2026 18:13 ET (23:13 GMT)
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